I heard tonight

[Weston Saint]

My big worry as well.

 

There is a chance to renegotiate the main debts, there is a chance to wipe out other debt, a number of high wedge contracts are coming to an end and yet we still don't look to be anywhere near a decent enough investment to the outside world.

 

I do wonder whether the whole structure that has been set up is just unworkable outside of the top flight, regardless of what cost cutting is undertaken????

A very good and worrying point Steve. That and my reasoning above is why I am fairly convinced we are history.

[SW11_Saint]

I do wonder whether the whole structure that has been set up is just unworkable outside of the top flight, regardless of what cost cutting is undertaken????

You mean the financial structure I presume Steve? I can't see why can't be "undone", assuming the new owners have some financial nous? Surely nothing is insurmountable.

 

Another day - hope springs eternal...!

[Frank's cousin]

NOt sure that we are not over complicating this 'financial prem structure' - all it means in reality is bottom line - we have costs inexcess of revenue from teh academy and staplewood facilities to SMS and the cost per game running costs etc... and staffing t contracts to cover that set up .....player contracts are just that and as all employment contracts not immoveable on compensation - something that also needs to be worked out within a L1 business plan - the simple fact s that cost still need to be trimmed...

[SP Saint]

My money is on us not finding a buyer. Bid on the table rejected by Administrator. Pinnacle led bid never materialised. Pinnacle saying they can still put something together suggests they are looking for a money man again. Unlikely in my opinion.

 

Genuine overseas interest this morming seems not to have materialised later this afternoon.

 

Plenty of genuine best intentions but when push comes to shove the real money men fail the test.

 

I don't expect a positive outcome to our Administration. I am quite depressed about the whole situation this evening

 

We need to look at the market. There is no billionaire out there willing to buy Saints as a toy. The only interest so far has been from businessmen who will expect to see a return on their investment.

 

There has been talk on here of restructuring the debt with Aviva. Any potential buyer will not want to do that. He will want to purchase the stadium for as cheap as possible. Restructured debt is a continued millstone around the neck.

 

Some talk about a separate buyer of the stadium. Any potential buyer of the football club will not want to have to pay rent and lose income from other uses.

 

Let's not blame Aviva for any of this. They have been very helpful and understanding up to now. It is not their fault the business is in the mess it is.

 

Barclays may be a different story as they seemed to allow the Hone regime increase the debt imprudently. They took the risk and should be in the queue of blame after the Board of Directors.

 

A very good and worrying point Steve. That and my reasoning above is why I am fairly convinced we are history.

 

Three very well reasoned posts imho.

 

I agree that unfortunately it does increasingly look as if we are history, at least in our current form.

 

I suppose someone will pay a pittance for the rights to the name and the registration rights to the Blue Square Premier and Saints 2009 Ltd will end up ground-sharing with either Eastleigh or Salisbury.

 

If that IS what it comes to I will still be happy to give my support. At least we will have a club without the millstone of a large stadium with it's debt and running cost to fund and hopefully the only way will be up.

[Clapham Saint]

Just a thought.

 

Maybe Aviva don't really care too much what they get?

 

As in no doubt during the whole "Banking Loony Years" the actual mortgage itself has been diced, sliced and sold off to about a thousand different people as one of those bond/derivative type things..

 

Which somewhere down the line has possibly popped up as a "Toxic Debt", may even have been paid off by good Ol Gord with your tax money all ready

 

No idea quite how it works but somehow I expect they could be happy to get anything back, as the "loss" on a bad loan may have laready been written off and anything now comes in as new profit and a nice fat bonus cheque for the manager who gets it in.

 

Any experts out there?

 

 

I expect the loan has been provided for in full and hence the loss already "taken".

 

But in that case anything that they do get will be profit in the books and so they will still want to get as much as possible.

[up and away]

Originally Posted by Fitzhugh Fella

that, in the traumatic circumstances, the creditors are being a little too greedy.

 

Excellent source.

can their avarice be overcome?

 

I'll go out on a limb here. If they get paid what they are owed, I would reckon that should do it.

 

If you are offering less than what can be obtained from breaking everything up and selling it off bit by bit, guess which option they will go for?

 

When you put yourself into these positions, you can only hope luck is on your side, because you have very limited leverage. Try playing hard ball with these types and you will soon find that ball as lot 49, with no reserve.

[bridge too far]

I'll go out on a limb here. If they get paid what they are owed, I would reckon that should do it.

 

If you are offering less than what can be obtained from breaking everything up and selling it off bit by bit, guess which option they will go for?

 

When you put yourself into these positions, you can only hope luck is on your side, because you have very limited leverage. Try playing hard ball with these types and you will soon find that ball as lot 49, with no reserve.

 

Is there anyone out there who can give a realistic opinion on what amount this would achieve?

[dubai_phil]

I'll go out on a limb here. If they get paid what they are owed, I would reckon that should do it.

 

If you are offering less than what can be obtained from breaking everything up and selling it off bit by bit, guess which option they will go for?

 

When you put yourself into these positions, you can only hope luck is on your side, because you have very limited leverage. Try playing hard ball with these types and you will soon find that ball as lot 49, with no reserve.

 

Lol great concept, but in our case nobody wanted to pay 24mil to buy us as an almost going concern before so why would they even START negotiating at that level now when we are bust and losing money faster than RBS

 

Therein lies the problem. We will be bought by businessmen, not philanthropists. That means they will not take a "gamble too far", MOST especially in this economic environment.

 

People buy businesses or assets in a recession when they are "A good deal" and they can make some money in the future when the economy turns around.

 

(As a simple example I saw a condo in Miami, sold for 1.8mil at the top of the market, went for auction at 180k, that was a good deal) and that is what is happening now with us - the potential buyers will have a budget they believe is sound, the creditors wil always want more, Fry will want to work longer and earn more fees, but EVENTUALLY they all have todecide the end game is upon them, Fry could get a lot less money for his fees if we become Lot 49 and the stadium is sold to some scrap metal dealer for 320k