John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 The flaw in that argument is that SFC don't OWN the stadium, it is owned by a seperate subsidiary of SLH, and is thus an asset that needs to be sold. The club will have to pay rent to either : a) A new stadium buyer or b) Aviva if they foreclose and rent the stadium to the club. The costs either way COULD be astronomical for a League 1 club, even with strong support. If a buyer is not found and Aviva take back ownership, they will want to run it at a profit both short and long term. The mortgage payment equivalent (£1m/year did I hear?) of about £44000 per home game would not produce a sufficient return, so be looking at about £75000/match rental. Add to this the fact that the club would not benefit from other stadium events, nor from catering, sales etc as these would be controlled and franchised by the stadium owners who would take any profit. In my opinion, the £8-12M offer "on the table" is derisory, considering it cannot include the stadium, and would not secure the future of SFC. Mr Fry has a LOT of work to do yet! That is why leasing based on attendance is probably the best approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 That is why leasing based on attendance is probably the best approach That would work in the prem and possibly the championship, but I would find it hard to believe a financial institution would gamble on sufficient gates to make it viable in League 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I could be wrong here, but I vaguely recall when St. Mary's was built that there was an issue with contamination (I am guessing from the gasworks) that meant the land could not be used for residential, but a football stadium was OK. Presuming that is why the council put the site on a plate for us, because it was good for very little else. Gas works contamination is a big problem actually. Many years ago I negotiated with the local gas company to lease their redundant land for temporary hospital car parking. The deal fell through because the hospital would have had to pay a fortune to remediate the land - all to do with run off and aquifers (sp?) caused by covering the land. So I reckon it would be even more difficult for a residential development or even an industrial / commercial one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I don't live in the Southampton area and have never listened to Solent - how accurate does everyone think this info is? Do Solent have a good record for being correct? Not really ........ they think Southampton is on the river Thames ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Gas works contamination is a big problem actually. Many years ago I negotiated with the local gas company to lease their redundant land for temporary hospital car parking. The deal fell through because the hospital would have had to pay a fortune to remediate the land - all to do with run off and aquifers (sp?) caused by covering the land. So I reckon it would be even more difficult for a residential development or even an industrial / commercial one. They could erect the biggest "No Smoking " sign in the world ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyd Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 £9 million is taken to pay the preferential creditors and Mr Fry's fees. The overdraft etc will be a creditor and rank behind the preferential creditors for any left overs. Aviva being a secured debt is not included in the insolvency, but they may do a deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Third Division South Days Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I would be wary of any situation if St Marys was not owned by the club or the council. Just remember what happened to Brighton when the ground was sold for development and they ended up homeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 (edited) I would be wary of any situation if St Marys was not owned by the club or the council. Just remember what happened to Brighton when the ground was sold for development and they ended up homeless. The land cannot be used for housing I believe Edited 13 May, 2009 by John B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 £9 million is taken to pay the preferential creditors and Mr Fry's fees. The overdraft etc will be a creditor and rank behind the preferential creditors for any left overs. Aviva being a secured debt is not included in the insolvency, but they may do a deal As per... take back ownership and lease back... it's the only viable option for them if no buyer is found for the stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 That would work in the prem and possibly the championship, but I would find it hard to believe a financial institution would gamble on sufficient gates to make it viable in League 1. If a company bought St Mary's and charged say £30K per game for up to 10000 spectators and more for over 10000 spectators surely that would be a reasonable approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pip Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I was away when all the points deduction debacle was discussed but I'm wondering whether Mr Fry has mentioned £9m as it's a figure at which the League have said we will not have benefitted from administration and therefore no points will be deducted? Too hopeful, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Third Division South Days Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 The land cannot be used for housing There is already housing within a few feet of ST Marys and why should housing be the only development proposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 If a company bought St Mary's and charged say £30K per game for up to 10000 spectators and more for over 10000 spectators surely that would be a reasonable approach To a NEW buyer that might be a reasonable bet. However, if NO buyer is found, I believe Aviva would want more return on what is a considerable mortgage they have underwritten. The repayment term is already a lot more than that. Also, take into account that 30k for 10K spectators is £3 per ticket.... therefore ticket pricing against income becomes an issue. How high a price will L1 football support?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I would be wary of any situation if St Marys was not owned by the club or the council. Just remember what happened to Brighton when the ground was sold for development and they ended up homeless. But the Council is the body that has to grant planning permission for change of use. Remediation arguments aside, if the Council decides that the land can't be used for housing that's it - it can't. OK the developer could appeal to a higher body (a government department) but I think that appeal would fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 . Also, take into account that 30k for 10K spectators is £3 per ticket.... therefore ticket pricing against income becomes an issue. How high a price will L1 football support?? That is the key question which no doubt the bidder has been wrestling with but paying the mortgage on the Stadium was a major reason why we are in administration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint in Paradise Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I would be wary of any situation if St Marys was not owned by the club or the council. Just remember what happened to Brighton when the ground was sold for development and they ended up homeless. This is my major worry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint in Paradise Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 But the Council is the body that has to grant planning permission for change of use. Remediation arguments aside, if the Council decides that the land can't be used for housing that's it - it can't. OK the developer could appeal to a higher body (a government department) but I think that appeal would fail. But do the Council like football ? OK they put up with it but in a couple of years who knows ? A change in the make-up of Council and who can guarantee that they wouldn't grant housing permission ? Too many ifs and maybes for me when politicians get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 But do the Council like football ? OK they put up with it but in a couple of years who knows ? A change in the make-up of Council and who can guarantee that they wouldn't grant housing permission ? Too many ifs and maybes for me when politicians get involved. I can just see the Council allowing St Mary's to be knocked down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 But do the Council like football ? OK they put up with it but in a couple of years who knows ? A change in the make-up of Council and who can guarantee that they wouldn't grant housing permission ? Too many ifs and maybes for me when politicians get involved. Well I can't state this as a fact, but any council, regardless of political hue, would alienate a lot of people if it allowed the city's football ground to be developed. However, if, as part of a redevelopment proposal, an alternative ground was provided by the developer, the council might possibly give the idea more than a passing glance I suppose. This is me blue-sky thinking BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITKSaint Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 The land cannot be used for housing I believe Supermarkets. That was Brighton's problem wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 The report on Solent was prefixed by "the BBC understands" no facts until Fry opens his mouth in a public place with witnesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 That is the key question which no doubt the bidder has been wrestling with but paying the mortgage on the Stadium was a major reason why we are in administration Which then begs the question, is 8M enough to ensure the survival of this club? Personally I think not in the long term, and feel that Mr Fry is in the situation whereby he is having to liquidate assets at terms that are not favourable to the club as a going concern. I fail to see how there can be any deal regarding the club unless there is also a deal in place regarding SMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Which then begs the question, is 8M enough to ensure the survival of this club? Personally I think not in the long term, and feel that Mr Fry is in the situation whereby he is having to liquidate assets at terms that are not favourable to the club as a going concern. I fail to see how there can be any deal regarding the club unless there is also a deal in place regarding SMS. There is no mention of how much money the bidder has to develop the club after paying £8m or £9m that is of no interest to Fry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Well I can't state this as a fact, but any council, regardless of political hue, would alienate a lot of people if it allowed the city's football ground to be developed. However, if, as part of a redevelopment proposal, an alternative ground was provided by the developer, the council might possibly give the idea more than a passing glance I suppose. This is me blue-sky thinking BTW I know !!!! .... Why not build a Complex at Stoneham, to include a Football Stadium, Hotel, Shops, Ice Rink etc etc ........It will be Multi Functional, near to a Motorway, Airport, Train Services, and would bring in Income all year round, instead of limited Revenue during the Football Season .... I can't understand why this was not thought of before !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 lots of lateral thinking needed now by some , the club will NOT be the same again after this. Any new owner , at an £8m purchase, is not going to have vast sums to buy players etc, we will need to exist like most clubs on gate income and other commercial income, hence why the Rugby world cup news is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ART Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Ha! I can just see the Media headlines in the coming days after Fry has announced a deal "OVER DEMANDING AND WHINGING MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS UPSET SUCCESSFUL BIDDER RESULTING IN WITHDRAWAL OF BID" :axe::smt093 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 There is no mention of how much money the bidder has to develop the club after paying £8m or £9m that is of no interest to Fry. I agree, however the SMS issue is still one that needs clear resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I agree, however the SMS issue is still one that needs clear resolution. Yes I expect that is being worked on now and a deal has not been copncluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Third Division South Days Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 lots of lateral thinking needed now by some , the club will NOT be the same again after this. Any new owner , at an £8m purchase, is not going to have vast sums to buy players etc, we will need to exist like most clubs on gate income and other commercial income, hence why the Rugby world cup news is good If the club does not own the stadium any additional income is not relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 lots of lateral thinking needed now by some , the club will NOT be the same again after this. Any new owner , at an £8m purchase, is not going to have vast sums to buy players etc, we will need to exist like most clubs on gate income and other commercial income, hence why the Rugby world cup news is good But surely, Mike, any new owner will offer as little as s/he feels s/he can get away with. The smaller the amount paid to buy the club, the greater the amount remaining to develop the club. Just because a small amount is being offered doesn't automatically mean there's no more left for development of the club. If I can buy a house for £20K less than the asking price, that gives me £20K to replace the kitchen and bathroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burger Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 But surely, Mike, any new owner will offer as little as s/he feels s/he can get away with. The smaller the amount paid to buy the club, the greater the amount remaining to develop the club. Just because a small amount is being offered doesn't automatically mean there's no more left for development of the club. If I can buy a house for £20K less than the asking price, that gives me £20K to replace the kitchen and bathroom. If you had the extra £20k in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 (edited) But surely, Mike, any new owner will offer as little as s/he feels s/he can get away with. The smaller the amount paid to buy the club, the greater the amount remaining to develop the club. Just because a small amount is being offered doesn't automatically mean there's no more left for development of the club. If I can buy a house for £20K less than the asking price, that gives me £20K to replace the kitchen and bathroom. Dead right, but we don't know just how much potential buyers have up their sleeves, or if they are banking on income from the club (I hope not, that would be suicidal). We have to assume they have at least SOME additional funds for development, but once again it all comes down the the SMS issue. Who will own it, who will control it, and at how close to break even are they prepared to run it. The next few days are critical to the survival of SFC. I am not so much worried about a bid for the club, as about the future of SMS - that's the make or break issue. I cannot see Aviva writing off a great deal of the debt. I can see them accepting reduced payments for a while, but not over the long haul. Edited 13 May, 2009 by LestWeForget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 In my opinion, the £8-12M offer "on the table" is derisory, considering it cannot include the stadium, and would not secure the future of SFC. Mr Fry has a LOT of work to do yet!I would have thought that any figure being touted about would *not* include the funds required to take the club forward in terms of investment, players etc. It wouldn't bother me what the figure was (£8-12m or 5p) as long as (from an Administrators perspective) it allows to the club to exit administration. If the buyers spent every last cent on buying the club without any scope for its ongoing viability then I would not have expected them to get past due diligence. In other words, lets not assume that a derisory bid means the potential buyer is without any other funds. Conversely, I would not want a sugar daddy to run the club at a loss, only to get bored and drop the club in the **** at a later date (as is going to be the case with Pompey). It would be much better to have something run on long term viability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eelpie Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I know !!!! .... Why not build a Complex at Stoneham, to include a Football Stadium, Hotel, Shops, Ice Rink etc etc ........It will be Multi Functional, near to a Motorway, Airport, Train Services, and would bring in Income all year round, instead of limited Revenue during the Football Season .... I can't understand why this was not thought of before !!!!! Blinkered Lowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Ha! I can just see the Media headlines in the coming days after Fry has announced a deal "OVER DEMANDING AND WHINGING MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS UPSET SUCCESSFUL BIDDER RESULTING IN WITHDRAWAL OF BID" :axe::smt093I think you over-estimate our relevance to the real world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Supermarkets. That was Brighton's problem wasn't it? Well, they used to wear Tesco's bags for shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I think everyone should chill out. As I understand it (reading this thread), St Marys is going to be knocked down by the council, become the site for a new Tesco, or become a new housing development. Radio Solent have basically said bugger all. All the local media want to be the first to actually break the news, and Solent have probably tripled their audience this morning with this latest 'revelation' (but only if about 20 posters on the forum tuned in). Just wait until the administrator makes a statement. In the meantime get on with your lives. I'm off to the driving range now. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpturner Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I'm off to the driving range now. Cheers.How can you afford the driving range if you are out of work? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I think everyone should chill out. As I understand it (reading this thread), St Marys is going to be knocked down by the council, become the site for a new Tesco, or become a new housing development. Radio Solent have basically said bugger all. All the local media want to be the first to actually break the news, and Solent have probably tripled their audience this morning with this latest 'revelation' (but only if about 20 posters on the forum tuned in). Just wait until the administrator makes a statement. In the meantime get on with your lives. I'm off to the driving range now. Cheers. I am of the same opinion. Let's just go away and come back when it's all over. Some people on here are like my wife; she will read the last page of a whodunnit because she can't bear the suspense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LestWeForget Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I would have thought that any figure being touted about would *not* include the funds required to take the club forward in terms of investment, players etc. It wouldn't bother me what the figure was (£8-12m or 5p) as long as (from an Administrators perspective) it allows to the club to exit administration. If the buyers spent every last cent on buying the club without any scope for its ongoing viability then I would not have expected them to get past due diligence. In other words, lets not assume that a derisory bid means the potential buyer is without any other funds. Conversely, I would not want a sugar daddy to run the club at a loss, only to get bored and drop the club in the **** at a later date (as is going to be the case with Pompey). It would be much better to have something run on long term viability. Agree totally. However, by "derisory", I meant that this is a ridiculously small figure for a club of SFC's stature. This leads me to believe that the due diligence has uncovered outstanding debts held by the club, rather than by SLH, beyond those we already know about, and that these may have to be serviced seperately from those held by SLH's creditors, and that SMS is not factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 If you had the extra £20k in the first place. To continue my analogy, I might have way more than the extra £20K but I wouldn't let the seller know that, now would I? People who make money, make money because they play a cute game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 To me, the key to all this is the "Character" of the Person(s) who take us over If he/they are "Football " men, then, long term, Saints fortunes will slowly approve If it is not Football men, then sadly, Football itself will take second place at best .......like it has done for the last 12 or so years We NEED a Mandaric or Madjeski .... people who put FOOTBALL First Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 To me, the key to all this is the "Character" of the Person(s) who take us over If he/they are "Football " men, then, long term, Saints fortunes will slowly approve If it is not Football men, then sadly, Football itself will take second place at best .......like it has done for the last 12 or so years We NEED a Mandaric or Madjeski .... people who put FOOTBALL First We just need anybody at the moment I would have thought By the way how much did Mandaric make out of Pompey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I am of the same opinion. Let's just go away and come back when it's all over. Some people on here are like my wife; she will read the last page of a whodunnit because she can't bear the suspense. Go on, tell all ..... what happens at the end of Mousetrap ??? ...... apart from the mouse being crushed mid an Edam moment ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burger Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 To continue my analogy, I might have way more than the extra £20K but I wouldn't let the seller know that, now would I? People who make money, make money because they play a cute game. Totally agree with you......just hope it is some-one with money....to continue your analogy, I've bought houses for more than I could afford! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 We just need anybody at the moment I would have thought By the way how much did Mandaric make out of Pompey Not quite sure ..... how many scrubbers are there ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 Not quite sure ..... how many scrubbers are there ???? Somebody told me £20 m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Bates Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 NickG, are you able to answer my question today? Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 I think you over-estimate our relevance to the real world. We are a microcosm, similar to a virtual land in an online computer game. Cochonland (Pig Land) was my favourite, if you didn't log on an feed your pigs every day,they died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 13 May, 2009 Share Posted 13 May, 2009 NickG, are you able to answer my question today? Cheers No your offer has not been accepted MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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