Did Lowe make the biggest mistake of all without us noticing?

[Clapham Saint]

Krissy you have completely misunderstood MF's role. He is just a conduit between the failed company and it's creditors and is there solely to protect the interests of the latter. MF will not decide, we will put forward the most favourable bids but if they don't meet the creditors demands the club will be liquidated. Our future lies with the simple fact will Barclays and probably HMRC get their money and to a lesser degree (as they have some kind of security) Aviva.

 

Barclays or Lowe? Don't think there'll be too many at Barclays worried about 15k loyal Saints fans and their wishes more to do with tickiing off the return of over 4 million of their British Pounds and appeasing their own shareholders.

 

19C, you imply that Aviva and Barclays are likely to demand the majority of their debt is repayed.

 

They have to all intents and puposes already lost their money and I'm sure have fully provided against it.

 

I acknowledge that if breaking everything up and selling it peicemeal will realise the most money then this is what is likely to happen however I doubt that this will be the case.

 

(copied from a post on another thread):

 

In the doomsday scenario where we don't get a sale and SFC ceases to be:

 

1) Aviva will take a HUGE write off on the stadium. Due to the poor, housing/commercial property market and the proximity of the gas works the stadium is of virtually no value to anybody else and would be sold for penuts.

 

2) The training ground/jackson's farm will be sold off to the highest bidder. Most likely a developer. Again I wouldn't have thought that the realisations would be very impressive.

 

3) I'm not sure about the status of the players contracts/registrations. If the club is liquidated in theory these would be sold off. However as we are talking about people rather than (say) bits of furniture I'm not sure now this would work out. The players might all just be released on frees when their wages weren't paid.

 

Again this would mean very little money making its way back to either Aviva or Barclays.

 

Given that the above, any offer that provides a better return would be taken (after the usual haggling obviously). I'd like to think that would happen.

[Legod Third Coming]

Where on earth did you get that idea about Pearson from ? Leicester have a team of highly paid players, most of whom have years of Premiership and Championship experience. Their wage bill is being paid personally by their chairman and is over twice as much as our wage bill. Pearson kept us up with a team of experienced pros including a couple of expensive loans. The only young (and cheap) player to regularly play under Pearson was Andrew Surman. There is no indication whatsoever that Pearson would succeed on a restrictive budget.

 

No, nor is ther any evidence he would have failed.

 

What the sacking of Pearson and the employment of the Dutch duo did, however, was to alienate large portions of the customer base and render meaningless any goodwill and euphoria engendered by our last ditch suvival.

 

This, with or without hindsight, was a significant mistake.

 

The Dutch duo were a massive mistake and failure on the pitch was the major cause of low crowds - which deprived the club of cash.

 

I think we can all agree on that, surely?

[derry]

The fatal flaw of our chairman was to show leadership and lead. No doubt Lowe collated the necessary information and then like all leaders in industry, public service, armed forces, politics etc etc the person at the top has to make a decision. Thank god Lowe had that fatal flaw as Crouch was even in his short time the antipathy of a man who leads he listened and at times I think to the wrong people and was unable to decide a path and stick with it.

 

We talk about Lowe didn't do this and didn't do that why didn't Crouch start cutting costs drastically in December 2007? Who was he listening to?

 

 

The sort of leadership usually displayed by the first lemming over the cliff.

 

The fatal flaw for Lowe was his blind arrogant presumption that he was expert in all things and he knew best.

 

If he had only been a bit more normal, reasonable, and compatible, he would probably have been forgiven for the relegation.

 

If he had been seen as a leader rather than a self appointed dictator supported by a self serving clique, we may well not had the traumatic boardroom battles of the last three years.

 

There probably wouldn't have been any Wilde or Crouch which led to the executive fiasco.

 

In the end the buck stops with the Lowe regime, how they behaved and the alienation of the masses.

 

It is time to move on, as we surely will, and put the last few years behind us.

[John B]

You cannot have a succesful long-term plan that fails in the short term, though.

 

It is possible to lose a battle but win the war .

 

 

Unfortunately you cannot ask Winston Churchill these days

[derry]

19C, you imply that Aviva and Barclays are likely to demand the majority of their debt is repayed.

 

They have to all intents and puposes already lost their money and I'm sure have fully provided against it.

 

I acknowledge that if breaking everything up and selling it peicemeal will realise the most money then this is what is likely to happen however I doubt that this will be the case.

 

(copied from a post on another thread):

 

In the doomsday scenario where we don't get a sale and SFC ceases to be:

 

 

1) Aviva will take a HUGE write off on the stadium. Due to the poor, housing/commercial property market and the proximity of the gas works the stadium is of virtually no value to anybody else and would be sold for penuts.

 

2) The training ground/jackson's farm will be sold off to the highest bidder. Most likely a developer. Again I wouldn't have thought that the realisations would be very impressive.

 

3) I'm not sure about the status of the players contracts/registrations. If the club is liquidated in theory these would be sold off. However as we are talking about people rather than (say) bits of furniture I'm not sure now this would work out. The players might all just be released on frees when their wages weren't paid.

 

Again this would mean very little money making its way back to either Aviva or Barclays.

 

Given that the above, any offer that provides a better return would be taken (after the usual haggling obviously). I'd like to think that would happen.

 

I understand that British Gas put a covenant on the site restricting it's future use. If it was to be converted into development, BG would require a hefty premium to release the covenant.

[alpine_saint]

You seem to forget nothing happened between 2006 and 2008 when Lowe was not involved.

 

 

I have two points in regard to this :

 

1. Really ? Seems to me a fair few discussions "bid situations" and enquiries occurred during this time. It was Lowe that halted all discussions and withdrew the "bid situation"

 

2. As event have proven, Lowe really never went away. Therefore, anyone interested would still have had to deal with him. Maybe he was still directing things from afar. We know already he put the kybosch on the SISU interest.

[alpine_saint]

One obvious mistake is not taking admin before the deadline and taking any points hit this season instead of starting next season on -10.

 

The club will be much harder to sell if the prospective buyers know they will have at least 2 seasons in League 1.

 

Alpine's "take admin now" thread got alot of stick but he was proved 100% right.

 

The problem is, my friend, that so many convinced themselves that adminstration was not inevitable, especially the luvvies on here. I even got crap for saying that admin would automatically follow relegation - well guess what, we didnt even get that far.

 

I really wonder about those who thought we would get away with it despite below break-even attendances AND expensive players brought back in to stop the performance rot.

 

We could have, before March 26th, taken admin at a time of the clubs choosing, to protect it from further damage next season. But stubborness, ego, arogance, blind faith, hand-wringing etc. meant the interests of the club were totally ignored.

[SaintRichmond]

What the 34 expressions of interest show is that (like SISU), there were always deals to be done.

 

The key question is - why did no one do a deal when Lowe was around????

 

 

Easy answer ... Lowe never really wanted to enter any deal that would have inevitably led to HIM losing Power/Control ....

 

As the Meerkats say ..... "Simple"

[alpine_saint]

Easy answer ... Lowe never really wanted to enter any deal that would have inevitably led to HIM losing Power/Control ....

 

As the Meerkats say ..... "Simple"

 

Yep, its really that simple. He was still pulling (albeit longer) strings with regard to SFC between 2006 and 2008.

 

He's now making noises about being still interested, still loving the club, wanting to help, etc.

 

Well, guess what matey, unless you regularly play hunt the submarine in a nice, hot soapy bath with some billionare that we dont know about, you havent got a chance. Your grip on the club through your share cartel is OVER.

[up and away]

Been reading and analysing lots of opinions and hints the last few days and something that 19C said (in an unrelated way) made me wonder if Lowe inadvertently made the biggest mistake of all.

 

"The club was heading for financial meltdown when he and Wilde returned" is something I recall being said ages ago

 

"It would not have lasted until Christmas" was 19C

 

The one thing that you have failed to factor in is that we were still lumbered with high earners haemoraging the clubs finances. If no one wants them, we are stuck with them and the only possible way of removing them is to go into administration. Lowe did his damnest to get rid of them in any way possible, but they stuck in there like ticks on a cow's arse.

 

This is why Crouch cannot afford to do anything at this moment. Our debts and contract fee liabilities have to be raised to the ground so someone can actually come in and survive on our income.

 

Some of the feed back I am getting about the enquiries to the administrator give very little hope. Mainly idiots dreaming or trying to play the part, your Dan Williams type and the Crouch's some where inbetween.

 

Our most realistic chance of saving comes from someone like Crouch and the pleas for money now are starting to make sense. There are no fairy godmothers out there coming to save us, all we have is the likes of Crouch coming in to buy up what peices are left after administration. His big problem is that there has to be something left for him to pick up and without that money coming in for the remaining games being his big worry.

 

Well the club is effectively no longer a plc, Lowe has gone and all those deliberately boycotting can now donate all those savings to their hearts content.

[Legod Third Coming]

Easy answer ... Lowe never really wanted to enter any deal that would have inevitably led to HIM losing Power/Control ....

 

As the Meerkats say ..... "Simple"

 

No, the Meerkats say 'simples'...

[Legod Third Coming]

It is possible to lose a battle but win the war .

 

 

Unfortunately you cannot ask Winston Churchill these days

 

Mate, I have concluded you are simply on a wind up.

 

We have no future because the long-term pland failed within six months. (some would say it was doomed from the moment JP arrived).

 

You will notice that Churchill, having withdrawn from Dunkirk, got on the phone to Ike and asked for help...

[dubai_phil]

The one thing that you have failed to factor in is that we were still lumbered with high earners haemoraging the clubs finances. If no one wants them, we are stuck with them and the only possible way of removing them is to go into administration. Lowe did his damnest to get rid of them in any way possible, but they stuck in there like ticks on a cow's arse.

 

This is why Crouch cannot afford to do anything at this moment. Our debts and contract fee liabilities have to be raised to the ground so someone can actually come in and survive on our income.

 

Some of the feed back I am getting about the enquiries to the administrator give very little hope. Mainly idiots dreaming or trying to play the part, your Dan Williams type and the Crouch's some where inbetween.

 

Our most realistic chance of saving comes from someone like Crouch and the pleas for money now are starting to make sense. There are no fairy godmothers out there coming to save us, all we have is the likes of Crouch coming in to buy up what peices are left after administration. His big problem is that there has to be something left for him to pick up and without that money coming in for the remaining games being his big worry.

 

Well the club is effectively no longer a plc, Lowe has gone and all those deliberately boycotting can now donate all those savings to their hearts content.

 

Problem with that is Crouch will not pick up the pieces. If no bidder comes in for "everything" that allows the Administrator to give an offer to the creditors, then as I understand it in simple terms the club folds, player registrations are cancelled and we simply vanish from the records of the CCC this year.

 

If Crouch honestly thinks he could pick up the pieces for 50k or even his magical 2million the I think all he would be getting is a dead parrot

 

As I have said I wanted all the old guard gone, but if Crouch thought this was a viable strategy then jeez, he was even worse than I thought in terms of reality. (But obviously not as bad as RL & MW to stop arguments!)

[Weston Super Saint]

Been reading and analysing lots of opinions and hints the last few days and something that 19C said (in an unrelated way) made me wonder if Lowe inadvertently made the biggest mistake of all.

 

"The club was heading for financial meltdown when he and Wilde returned" is something I recall being said ages ago

 

"It would not have lasted until Christmas" was 19C

 

these comments made me think

 

Lowe gambled with our season in a desperate attempt to stave off Administration (ie save shareholder value but also protect the "clubs" assets)

 

I expect the actual accounts to show that he did a good job on this (but obviously not good enough for Barclays)

 

BUT, with 34 enquiries now received, possibly 3 or 4 of them serious, can it not now be argued that while still INCREDIBLY dangerous for our long term survival, MAYBE just maybe we should have taken admin BEFORE Christmas or EVEN back in May.

 

Think back to May, Lehman Bros had not happened, people were more inclined to still do "deals".

Maybe the CLUB could have started the season on -10 points but still had the semblance of a squad and MANAGER and new owners that could have scraped survival.

 

Even around September when Barclays are said to have cut the O/D, there was still some money around, still time to rescue a season even WITH 10 points penalty.

 

But today? Well if we can get 34 people in THIS environment..... Maybe a proper manager could have got more out of the team - how many times did JP drop points with wrong selections that even he admitted blame for...

 

So no this isn't a new go at Lowe, I think the financial facts will eventually show he came close to performing a miracle of recovery in our finances (IF ONLY HE HAD STAYED AWAY FROM THE FOOTBALL SIDE), but I think one of the unforeseen events of his return was to actually hasten our demise

 

anyway something different to argue about during the "takeover phoney war" quiet period

 

I wouldn't believe a thing 19C posts...

 

Have you seen the state Salisbury are in?

 

Two peas in a pod 19C and Lowe...

[dubai_phil]

I wouldn't believe a thing 19C posts...

 

Have you seen the state Salisbury are in?

 

Two peas in a pod 19C and Lowe...

 

I don't believe a thing ANYONE posts - FACT :cool:

 

But that doesn't stop me reading stuff and using my (somewhat addled) brain to think. Just the sudden thought - "we could have been in admin before Xmas" made me think

"I wonder if we might have found 35 bidders then?"

"Would any of those have been real? What were the chances then or hey even back in May at the time of the coup"

"If we'd popped back then even without the FL decision, could new owners have made a difference so we avoided releagtion or even overcame a 10 point deduction"

 

So I'm a Believer is purely for karaoke nights not here, & I wasn't "If Onlying" more going hmmm - IF we get out of this, maybe it would have been better earlier...

[um pahars]

Lowe gambled with our season in a desperate attempt to stave off Administration (ie save shareholder value but also protect the "clubs" assets)

 

And ultimately it was a gamble that failed.

 

I certainly don't buy the argument that there was no hope, or else why did he come back??

 

Of course it was a precarious position, and of course it would be tough, but it certainly was doable and that is why Lowe came back. Sadly Lowe failed in his attempt to stave off administration (and we're very close to failing on the pitch as well).

 

We should have avoided administration at all costs, and even when the overdraft was cut back in Sept/Oct, we should have done everything and

anything to adhere to these new lending limits.

 

That could have included an "anything goes policy" with no sacred cows, be it the sale of players, sale of other assets, sale and lease backs, begging for money from people, forcing Crouch's hand just to raise some one off cash.

 

OR even if the worst came to the worst arranging a pre pack sale achieved by other clubs, and I presume Derby did this in 2003 (effectively accepting administration as a last resort, but having already lined up a buyer so we go in to and then come out of administration almost immediately).

 

I just don't think these last months have been handled very well at all off the pitch. It would almost appear that there has been an element of head in the sand and Barclay's won't pull the plug about it.

 

And exactly the same can be said for on the pitch where terrible decisions from the off have impatced directly on attendances which have lost us ££££'s which could have ensured we stayed within our overdraft limits.

 

I can't buy into the premise that we should have taken administration last May as everyone (inc Lowe and Wilde) were of the view that it would be possible to play and trade our way out.

 

Administration should have been avoided at all costs.

[John B]

One obvious mistake is not taking admin before the deadline and taking any points hit this season instead of starting next season on -10.

 

The club will be much harder to sell if the prospective buyers know they will have at least 2 seasons in League 1.

 

Alpine's "take admin now" thread got alot of stick but he was proved 100% right.

 

Do you really think that the Shareholders would willingly go into Administration?

[alpine_saint]

Do you really think that the Shareholders would willingly go into Administration?

 

I reckon Crouch would have, for the greater good of SFC.