Random Horse Tips

[frankie]

Yeah stopped tipxchange for the moment seems to be clouding my judgement ( :-) ) yet another excuse :-)

 

On to today at Brighton I will be backing all of Seb Sanders mounts, top jockey at the track and looks to have some live chances.

 

As for Hamilton

 

2.45 Crimea

3.15 Killing Moon

4.15 Dubawi King

4.45 Wicked Wilma

 

Good luck all, bit cooler for the gee gees

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

 

On to today at Brighton I will be backing all of Seb Sanders mounts, top jockey at the track and looks to have some live chances.

 

 

 

Good luck all, bit cooler for the gee gees

 

Frankie

 

Oh flip!

 

Brighton 3.00 Sumerian @7/4 :Hopefully this improving horse will continue Sir Mark Prescott's excellent record at Brighton in a small field of where Bitter Fortune and Plus Ultra. Shown promise on 2 previous runs to date, oh Seb Sanders takes the ride !

Hamilton 3.45 Gritstone@2/1 : Should be suited by slight drop back in trip, runs off a very reasonable mark of 73 and trainer Richard Fahey in great form. Taking this run in preference to a maiden option at the weekend, could well be significant.

Brighton 4,30 - Dualagi - @ 5/2 :Ran over this C/D last time out and, not for the first time, she found trouble in running before putting in some very good late work. It was a similar story, again over this C/D, two weeks prior to that. It has to be said that her style of racing lends itself to such performances and, for that reason, she comes with risks attached. However she is a good traveller and, having proved she clearly handles this track, the positives outweigh the negatives. She runs from a career low mark and fast ground suits. The yard are in good form, send just the one to the track today and secure the services of George Baker. he has formed a good association with the yard and has proved his effectiveness round here.

Hamilton 5.15 Obe One ew @ 50/1: Just has to be done, an old timer like me, I'd never forgive myself in the highly unlikely event of him winning !!

 

It is/was indeed cooler, nice downpour a while back though it was raining at Musselburgh last night !

But now it is hotter/more humid than ever...

Good luck Frankie and anyone else, the book of excuses may need to be a long one

 

Chris

Edited 29 June, 2010 by chrisobee
Add tip..

[bungle]

5.00 Brighton Multahab

[chrisobee]

Hamilton 2.15 Lump on Mayson at around 1/6 !! Why would you back a horse at that price ?

[chrisobee]

Yeah stopped tipxchange for the moment seems to be clouding my judgement ( :-) ) yet another excuse :-)

 

On to today at Brighton I will be backing all of Seb Sanders mounts, top jockey at the track and looks to have some live chances.

 

As for Hamilton

 

2.45 Crimea

3.15 Killing Moon

4.15 Dubawi King

4.45 Wicked Wilma

 

Good luck all, bit cooler for the gee gees

 

Frankie

 

Hahaha, have to admit I could resist posting not YOUR tips as well as mine plus the one of Bungle !! That'll give you both a get out clause:D

[frankie]

A fair few winners today fellas, good going.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

This evenings selections.

 

Stratford

 

7.10 Ant Music

7.40 Neutrino

8.10 Recurring Dream

9.10 Two Mile Borris

 

Thirsk

7.00 Lizzie

7.30 Fantastic Strike

8.00 There We Go

8.30 Nufoudh

 

Come on Portugal you can beat the Spanish (have them at 33/1 to win the World Cup)

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Hmm not a bad night, Lizzie was backed and won nicely, I managed to have a fiver at 13.5 on Betfair, the others ran ok without winning, I was bored with footy so decided to do a couple of bets...

 

GB / Thirsk 29th Jun / 21:00 5f Hcap Mey Blossom Back 11377922105 29-Jun-10

20:55 C 3.2 5.00 3.2 11.00

IRE / Sligo 29th Jun / 20:50 1m4f Hcap Barndeh Back 11377798425 29-Jun-10

20:47 C 8.6 5.00 8.6 38.00

GB / Strat 29th Jun / 20:40 2m7f Beg Chs Job One Back 11377614599 29-Jun-10

20:33 C 32 2.00 32 62.00

 

So all in all a nice evening.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Well I can't believe it but pulling on me old football boots and going football training tomorrow night with a local team....think i'm going through a bit of a crisis, weems a bit extreme at 38 but still, might be able to get rid of some of my cider belly....that also means I will be posting both daytime and evening selections now...not the best thing to do, especially as the liquidity on Betfair is so rubbish this early, plus market moves cannot be monitored...but still, i'm gonna be a devil.

 

Perth

 

2.20 so tempted to do Lambertstown Lad but feel fav will win this and money will be wasted.

 

3.30 The extremely busy and consistent Flying Doctor trounced his rivals over the big obstacles last time out and will take all the beating here.

 

That's it for Perth, alot of Irish trainers with runners so I am sure the market will be a good guide, so almost impossible to fathom races at this time...the only other runner I really fancy is the massively improving Beidh Tine Anseo, he has won his last 3 nicely, including over this course and distance, he is still lightly raced and if kept standing will have a great chance.

 

Catterick

 

3.30 Ryedane has completed a hat-trick in recent weeks and goes for a four timer here, he looks ahead of the handicapper and Easterby remains in superb form.

 

4.30 Frognal has been well punted in each of his runs this year without managing to get his head in front, punters will be looking to get a return and today looks a good a day as any, he has slipped to a very low mark and this extra furlong should help as he was staying on over 6 last time out.

 

Worcester

 

2.40 Marblehead is a horse I like to follow in hunter chases, he is a useful horse over the point to point fences and will surely improve now moved to Nigel Twiston Davis' yeard.

 

3.10 Uffa Fox was once very well regarded, unfortunately he has struggled lately, but is still lightly raced, has slipped to a very favourable handicap mark and has the blinkers applied, if they can rekindle his love for the game he can hopefully win for his small stable.

 

5.10 Alot of inconsistent types in this race so I go for a bit of a wildcard selection, Sula's Legend was in good form last year, and even won over this course, he struggled after a long break last time out and should hopefully strip fitter, the cheekpieces will also hopefully help.

 

Here are the evening selections.

 

Kempton

6.20 Boogie Waltzer

8.20 Bea Menace

8.50 Highland Legacy

 

Chepstow

7.10 The Name is Frank

8.10 Cheam Forever

8.40 Recalcitrant

 

 

So there we have it, not gone too mad with the selections, hopefully I can come home to a few winners, and dont strain too many muscles / tendons.

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

i have quit betting, btw.

[frankie]

i have quit betting, btw.

 

 

Why's that mate, if you don't mind me asking.

 

Frankie

[bungle]

Perth 3.50 Flying Doctor

Worcester 4.10 Now this is it

Edited 30 June, 2010 by bungle

[chrisobee]

A fair few winners today fellas, good going.

 

Frankie

 

Graham Andre has paid £0 to join your Elite Tips service. Their expiry date is Thursday, July 29th 2010.

 

Lol, I will spend your £0 wisely Frankie. Amazing start yesterday with 1st 6, three from you and three from me going in. Goodbye Cash was a relatively late decision but my best winner of the day.

Tailed off thereafter though a few very speculative bets at decent prices including of course Obe One who I think finished last, couldn't hang around long enough to see !!

 

14:45HamBack 2ptsCrimea2.86Won3.53

15:00BrigBack 2ptsSumerian3.1Won3.99

15:15HamBack 1ptKilling Moon2.96Won1.86

15:30BrigBack 1ptGoodbye Cash11.18Won9.67

15:45HamBack 2ptsGritstone2Won1.90

16: HamBack 1ptDubawi King3.25Won2.14

16:30BrigBack 1ptDualagi4Lost-1.00

16:45HamBack 1ptWicked Wilma5.45Lost-1.00

17:00BrigBack 1ptMultahab7.16Lost-1.00

17:15HamEW 1ptObe One80/1Lost-2.00

19:30ThirBack 1ptMoheebb6.56Lost-1.00

20:00ThirBack 1ptGreen Agenda6.13Lost-1.00

20:10StraEW 1ptIs It Me12/1Place1.40

20:30ThirBack 1ptHigh Importance2.82Lost-1.00

Total: +16.49

 

Best of luck today, so far I've not seen anything standing out though have only looked at Worcester.

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Perth

 

2.20 so tempted to do Lambertstown Lad but feel fav will win this and money will be wasted.

 

3.30 The extremely busy and consistent Flying Doctor trounced his rivals over the big obstacles last time out and will take all the beating here.

 

That's it for Perth, alot of Irish trainers with runners so I am sure the market will be a good guide, so almost impossible to fathom races at this time...the only other runner I really fancy is the massively improving Beidh Tine Anseo, he has won his last 3 nicely, including over this course and distance, he is still lightly raced and if kept standing will have a great chance.

 

 

Frankie

 

That pretty much sums up my thoughts too Frankie, Abbey Lane should be too good in the opener, I also fancy both Flying Doctor and Beidh Tine Anseo, the former is at least a fair enough price at 4/1 I feel, Beidh Tine Anseo too short at around 6/5.

It's pretty much the same at Catterick, Quite Sparky I like in the 5.00 but trading odds on so I can't be backing it.

I'm sure I'll find something to back, at present though I would say this is a really poor day's racing.

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Ok just one so far and that's the well fancied Flying Doctor! Should have a few for tonight.

Good luck.

 

Chris

[bungle]

Any thoughts on the Coral Eclipse on Saturday?

 

Dar Re Mi obviously won a big race last time out, but dropping down in distance, will it affect? 9/4 on Twice Over seems a good gamble to me.

[saint_stevo]

Why's that mate, if you don't mind me asking.

 

Frankie

 

All got a bit too expensive for me....no doubt i will be back, but just not for a while

[chrisobee]

All got a bit too expensive for me....no doubt i will be back, but just not for a while

 

Credit where due, we clearly have a new and much more sensible Stevo, I wonder if Kip has had the same transformation !

[chrisobee]

Tonight :

 

7.10 - Chepstow:Blue Aura @ 11/2/ Connors Choice - e/w @ 14/1 (Stan James)

Blue Aura was a C/D winner nine days ago having done well to get over towards the favoured stands rail from the widest draw. That victory came as somewhat of a surprise but it may be he is just coming to himself after two seasons out. He runs under a six pound penalty this evening but that still leaves him very well weighted on his old form. His draw in stall ten means he will have less work to do early on to get the rail and, with the yard in good form, he looks capable of going well again. The only slight concern is whether he will find conditions a bit quick having raced mainly on good ground or slower. At a much bigger price, Connors Choice could run better than the market predicts. He is closely weighted with Bermondsey Bob on their C/D running here last September and he has a reasonable record on undulating tracks (2 wins, 5 placed from 12 outings). He ran better than his finishing position suggests at Nottingham earlier this month and wasn't given a hard time when his chance had gone at Brighton last time out.

 

8.10 - Chepstow - Acheekyone e/w @ 12/1 (General)

Acheekyone raced far too keenly on his return from a near three year absence last month so, in the circumstances, he didn't run badly in a race which turned out to be a bit of a sprint after a moderate early pace. The three pound fall in the handicap has enabled him to drop into this grade for the first time from a career low mark. It's guesswork whether he retains all his former ability but he probably doesn't need to get competitive in this company. It could be significant his owner, who only ever has one or two in training, and his powerful yard, are prepared to keep him in training and he did look very well for that reappearance. He has been given a 39 day break in an attempt to avoid the 'bounce effect' and he has the assistance of one of the best three pound claimers available.

 

8.20 - Kempton - Bea Menace - e/w. @11/1 (Skybet) There was sure to be at least one race in which Frankie and I were backing the same donkey and this is it

This looks very competitive but if Bea Menace is fit enough for this reappearance she could go well at a double figure price. She was a progressive Filly in her second campaign last season and it's likely there is further improvement to come this time round. Her only run over today's trip resulted in a victory in a very decent Claimer at Pontefract last October and she followed that up with a comfortable win back in handicap company over seven furlongs here later the same month. She appears to have her share of weight but the booking of Jamie Spencer is a positive sign and, from a good draw, she has the added bonus of being tactically versatile. She is also a strong traveller, which is never a bad asset to have racing on polytrack.

 

8.50 - Kempton - Rangefinder @ 9/2 (General)

Only one win to his name from ten outings in this country but was a five time winner in his native Italy and he hasn't run badly in defeat in his four outings this season. Arguably his best effort came last time out in the Ascot Stakes over 20 furlongs. He made up some good late headway from an impossible position in a race which favoured those who raced prominently. His Sire has a good record with his progeny on the artificial surfaces so the switch to polytrack shouldn't prove disadvantageous. He would appear to be on a competitive mark and he represents a yard with a very profitable 23% strike rate at this track. The booking of Frankie Dettori, who has a 4 from 8 record for the Trainer in recent seasons, takes the eye for their only representative at the races today.

 

 

Hoping for a decent evening !

 

 

Chris

[saintkiptanui]

Usual pile of sh*t bee man. I don't like the new and improved site, I still have an addiction.

[frankie]

As you said Chris, an awful days racing with some awful results for us....onwards and upwards though..my hamstrings are still intact after 2 hours training and my mind is clear to select some good hosses.

 

Need a bath though so just selections...

 

Haydock

 

3.30 Rumool

 

5.00 Just Rob

 

Yarmouth

 

3.10 Kuanyao

 

4.40 Saviour Sand

 

Perth

 

2.50 Birnies Boy

 

4.20 Quito De Tresor

 

Not too many fancies and I am not wholly convinced in these either, evening looks better..

 

Take care all, keep enjoying the sun...i'm off to soak my aching body

 

Frankie

[bungle]

Haydock 2.00 Finsbury

Haydock 3.30 Reel Buddy Star - Non Runner!!

Yarmouth 3.10 Kuanyao

Yarmouth 5.10 Iceman George

Edited 1 July, 2010 by bungle

[saint_stevo]

if i were a betting man i would be looking at Mistoffeless in the 5:10 @ Yarmouth

[notnowcato]

Hillview Boy for the Old Newton Cup on Saturday at Haddock. Get the 12s whilst it's still there....

 

Giddy up!

[chrisobee]

As you said Chris, an awful days racing with some awful results for us....onwards and upwards though..my hamstrings are still intact after 2 hours training and my mind is clear to select some good hosses.

 

 

Frankie

 

Yep, I knew I shouldn't have bothered ! Still no real harm done to my betting bank, hard to believe you trained for TWO hours though:D

 

Ok, just tips at present, most of my selections run this evening, may add some analysis or may not!

 

Perth 14:50 Dark Halo Each Way @10/1

Hayd 17:00 Bollin Felix @13/2 : Didn't win in a light campaign last season and has failed to do in three outings this time round. However that has seen his mark fall by nine pounds and allowed him to take the drop back to the grade from which he last won. He likes plenty of cut in the ground and his chanced would be greatly enhanced if the forecast rain arrives in plenty of time and in sufficient quantity to ease underfoot conditions. The stable jockey, who has been board for four of his five career victories, returns, and three of those wins have come in the month of July.

Newb 19:05 Florestans Match @ 5/2

Epsm 19:55 My Kingdom NAP @ 9/2 / Dubai Set @ 16/1 : My Kingdom is suited by this kind of track and back in the winners enclosure stepped back up to this trip at Goodwood last time out. A four pound rise for that victory has left him on a career high mark but he is relatively unexposed over seven furlongs and there's a chance he may have more to offer. Having won over the trip as a Juvenile it's surprising he has been kept exclusively to six furlongs since this time last year. He has run well on all three previous visits to this track and today's jockey has a 211 record from three outings aboard on turf. The presence of a few trailblazers should ensure the selection gets the strong pace he needs to be seen at his best. Dubai Set is a speculative bet but at a decent price.

Newb 20:10 Perfect Friend 2pt win, 1 point place @ 14/1 :Sarasota Sunshine is likely to prove hard to beat given her progressive profile but she is priced accordingly and it maybe worth risking Perfect Friend at much bigger odds. She won this race from a six pound higher mark last season and she has shown signs of coming to hand in her most recent outings. She is versatile regarding ground conditions and the only concern is the form of her stable,they only had one winner from 28 entries last month. However Perfect Friend is tactically versatile, having won after being held up off the pace and going close at Warwick last time out after leading most of the way, and she may have been trained with a repeat win in this at the top of her agenda.

Redc 20:20 Sunnandaeg 2 point win, 1 point place @ 12/1 :Esuvia and Philosopher's Stone probably come into this race in the best form but, at bigger odds, Sunnadaeg takes the eye dropping back to six furlongs after reappearing at Hamilton over a mile in May. A winner of a Maiden at this trip at Ayr as a Juvenile last season, he followed that with creditable efforts in a Listed race and a Nursery (off a mark of 85), both over the same trip. He looked in need of his return where, considering his antics in the paddock, the effort wasn't devoid of promise. He has proven himself in ground both on the slow and fast side of good and he is not badly drawn for a horse who seems to like cover. He is entered in a better race at Ripon on Monday, again over six furlongs, and after just five outings, there is room for improvement this season. The yard are running into form and they have employed a jockey who is 1 from 2 for them for their only representative at the track.

 

Think we may need extra luck today, the curse of Cato is back !!

Note : Perth 2.20 Beidh Tine Anseo was due to run yesterday and was very well backed. However, was withdrawn due to the very firm ground. Going slighly easier today but of course the bookies got the message from yesterday and though a likely winner at around 11/10 is no value IMO.

 

Chris

Edited 1 July, 2010 by chrisobee
add analysis

[chrisobee]

Hillview Boy for the Old Newton Cup on Saturday at Haddock. Get the 12s whilst it's still there....

 

Giddy up!

 

Still 12/1 with a few firms, wretched thing had better win

[notnowcato]

Fear not OBee Juan there are no duplicates from our respective selections today.

 

Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious get on each way.

[chrisobee]

Fear not OBee Juan there are no duplicates from our respective selections today.

 

Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious get on each way.

 

You just did state the bleeding obvious

 

Not so concerned about duplicate tips, your mere presence tends to put the mockers on us all

[saint_stevo]

I would also like Rocky's Pride in the 16:40 @ Yarmouth..........

[frankie]

if i were a betting man i would be looking at Mistoffeless in the 5:10 @ Yarmouth

 

shame you're not then mate :-), I had a few quid on it for you mate, hate to see a good tip go to waste.

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

Ffs!

[bungle]

Haydock 2.00 Finsbury - Crud

Haydock 3.30 Reel Buddy Star - Non Runner!!

Yarmouth 3.10 Kuanyao - Win!

Yarmouth 5.10 Iceman George - Place. Gah.

 

Oh well, some profit for today as biggest bet on Kuanyao.

[frankie]

Kuanyo did the job for me and Notnowcato (Sorry Bungle...so I take this back), so dispells Chris O's myth that he is the kiss of death....

 

On to this evenings selections

 

Epsom

 

7.25 Abraham Lincoln (Billy Red E/W)

 

7.55 My Learned Friend

 

8.30 Ginger Grey

 

Newbury

 

9.10 Fine Sight

 

And I will have a double on 7.35 Dafeef and 8.10 Sarasota Sunshine.

 

Redcar

 

7.45 Bachelor Knight

 

8.20 Durham Express

 

9.20 Kathlatino.

 

Thats my lot, have a good evening

 

Frankie

Edited 1 July, 2010 by frankie
A mess up

[frankie]

Just one winner, Bachelor Knight, but happy with that as finding winners is blimmin at hard at the moment.

 

As for Friday, have our school summer fayre tonight, I will be drinking beer and supplying the music and running commentary, then down town for beers so I will endeavour to pick my selections for day and night.

 

Doncaster

 

2.00 Plush doesnt have much form on grass, but in a weak contest and at a nice price he is worth a punt

 

2.30 Tim Easterby won this race last year and can take it again here, with a small field and not a massive amount of ability on show, Bollin Judith can make this a true test of stamina having won over 1mile 6 and stretch his opponents.

 

3.00 Indochina must have a chance on his handicap debut, both Ghufa and Sparkling smile are in great form, but have to concede alot of weight to this horse on his seasonal debut, fitness should not be a problem as Mark Johnston is a master at getting his horses ready.

 

5.15 Milton of Campsie has run well this year without managing to get his head in front, he was hampered twice on his last run, if he can regain the form of his second from two runs ago, he would have a great chance here.

 

 

Sandown

 

4.00 Confront hasnt reached the heights of last year just yet, but he deserves another chance, his last run behind Paco Boy doesnt look too bad and after a short break and a trip he should relish a return to winning form is not impossible.

 

5.05 Swinging Hawk.....no more details i'm afraid, off to bed in a minute.

 

Warwick

 

4.55 Oh Two

 

Haydock

 

6.40 Yourlikemefrank

 

8.15 high Ransom

 

Beverley

 

7.25 Mighty Clarets

 

7.55 Saint Thomas

 

9.00 Soto

 

Take care all

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Yep, I knew I shouldn't have bothered ! Still no real harm done to my betting bank, hard to believe you trained for TWO hours though:D

 

Ok, just tips at present, most of my selections run this evening, may add some analysis or may not!

 

Perth 14:50 Dark Halo Each Way @10/1

Hayd 17:00 Bollin Felix @13/2 : Didn't win in a light campaign last season and has failed to do in three outings this time round. However that has seen his mark fall by nine pounds and allowed him to take the drop back to the grade from which he last won. He likes plenty of cut in the ground and his chanced would be greatly enhanced if the forecast rain arrives in plenty of time and in sufficient quantity to ease underfoot conditions. The stable jockey, who has been board for four of his five career victories, returns, and three of those wins have come in the month of July.

Newb 19:05 Florestans Match @ 5/2

Epsm 19:55 My Kingdom NAP @ 9/2 / Dubai Set @ 16/1 : My Kingdom is suited by this kind of track and back in the winners enclosure stepped back up to this trip at Goodwood last time out. A four pound rise for that victory has left him on a career high mark but he is relatively unexposed over seven furlongs and there's a chance he may have more to offer. Having won over the trip as a Juvenile it's surprising he has been kept exclusively to six furlongs since this time last year. He has run well on all three previous visits to this track and today's jockey has a 211 record from three outings aboard on turf. The presence of a few trailblazers should ensure the selection gets the strong pace he needs to be seen at his best. Dubai Set is a speculative bet but at a decent price.

Newb 20:10 Perfect Friend 2pt win, 1 point place @ 14/1 :Sarasota Sunshine is likely to prove hard to beat given her progressive profile but she is priced accordingly and it maybe worth risking Perfect Friend at much bigger odds. She won this race from a six pound higher mark last season and she has shown signs of coming to hand in her most recent outings. She is versatile regarding ground conditions and the only concern is the form of her stable,they only had one winner from 28 entries last month. However Perfect Friend is tactically versatile, having won after being held up off the pace and going close at Warwick last time out after leading most of the way, and she may have been trained with a repeat win in this at the top of her agenda.

Redc 20:20 Sunnandaeg 2 point win, 1 point place @ 12/1 :Esuvia and Philosopher's Stone probably come into this race in the best form but, at bigger odds, Sunnadaeg takes the eye dropping back to six furlongs after reappearing at Hamilton over a mile in May. A winner of a Maiden at this trip at Ayr as a Juvenile last season, he followed that with creditable efforts in a Listed race and a Nursery (off a mark of 85), both over the same trip. He looked in need of his return where, considering his antics in the paddock, the effort wasn't devoid of promise. He has proven himself in ground both on the slow and fast side of good and he is not badly drawn for a horse who seems to like cover. He is entered in a better race at Ripon on Monday, again over six furlongs, and after just five outings, there is room for improvement this season. The yard are running into form and they have employed a jockey who is 1 from 2 for them for their only representative at the track.

 

Think we may need extra luck today, the curse of Cato is back !!

Note : Perth 2.20 Beidh Tine Anseo was due to run yesterday and was very well backed. However, was withdrawn due to the very firm ground. Going slighly easier today but of course the bookies got the message from yesterday and though a likely winner at around 11/10 is no value IMO.

 

Chris

 

No winners but at least Perfect Friend ran well to finish 2nd behind the obvious choice in Saratosa Sunshine @20/1. I stick by my curse of Cato theory though thanks:D

 

Chris

[notnowcato]

No winners but at least Perfect Friend ran well to finish 2nd behind the obvious choice in Saratosa Sunshine @20/1. I stick by my curse of Cato theory though thanks:D

 

Chris

 

I was on Saratosa...

 

Hillview Boy in 2 points and strong on Betfair.

 

Giddy up!!

[bungle]

Two from Sandown for the moment. Both short prices.

 

2.50 Zebedee

4.35 Verdant

 

And at Doncaster

 

3.00 Sparkling Smile

Edited 2 July, 2010 by bungle

[bungle]

Any thoughts on the Coral Eclipse on Saturday?

 

Dar Re Mi obviously won a big race last time out, but dropping down in distance, will it affect? 9/4 on Twice Over seems a good gamble to me.

 

Anyone? Twice Over now 2/1 everywhere.

[chrisobee]

Anyone? Twice Over now 2/1 everywhere.

 

FWIW:

 

Looking back over recent years this race has been won by superstars such as Sea The Stars (last year), Falbrav, Halling, Pilsudski, and Daylami. The Eclipse exhibits a number of strong trends, and the favourite Twice Over hits most of these square on the head. The horse’s background leading into the race matches very closely the typical profile of previous winners. He’s the right age, with the right breeding, he’s had two races already this season and one within the last month in the Prince Of Wales Stakes (13 of the last 14 winners had their last race at either Royal Ascot or the Derby), and he’s managed a top two position at least twice in his last four races. If I were compiling the odds for this race I would have him around the 6/4 mark and he’s currently available at 2/1 so I think it’s a good bet.

The only stain on Twice Over’s otherwiser pristine trends copy book is that he has been around the block a few times. As a five year old this is perhaps to be expected. But history shows us that all but two of the last fourteen winners had raced between five and sixteen times, and Twice Over has completed 18 races. However, I don't think 2 extra races is significant and Twice Over looks the one to be on.

[chrisobee]

I was on Saratosa...

 

Hillview Boy in 2 points and strong on Betfair.

 

Giddy up!!

 

Curses, though give me a 20/1 placed horse over a short priced winner any day:D

[chrisobee]

For Friday, main bets :

 

2.20 - Sandown - Piscean - e/w. @ 16/1 (General)

 

3.35 - Doncaster - Aldermoor - @ 8/1 (General)

 

5.05 - Sandown - Dancing Dude - @ 13/2 (General)

 

8.30 - Beverley - Dimashq - @ 7/1 (General)

 

9.00 - Beverley - Bertie Southstreet - @ 6/1 (General)

 

Others mentions :

 

Doncaster 3.00 Sparkling Smile @ 15/8 : Not absolutely sure to stay the trip, this is a very competitive little race ) 7 go to post) Won 11/10

Sandown 4.35 - Verdant @11/8 : A likely winner but no value IMO. Won 5/6

Beverley 7.55 - Pendragon @ 6/4 : Short enough I think, General Tufto may represent ew value Pendragon won 10/11, General Tufto 3rd 17/2

 

Good luck all,

 

Chris

 

Edit: Nice hat trick for Bungle, singles or doubles/treble ? Zebedee the other at 8/15. Winners are winners

Only one winner here but Piscean finishing strongly to win at 16/1 thus ensuring a decent profit even though my other 4 main bets lost.

Edited 3 July, 2010 by chrisobee
Update

[chrisobee]

http://www.racinguk.com/page/forcelogin/Racereplays/0,,12542~1619429~567157~20100702,00.html

 

Poor, poor ride by Eddie Ahern at Warwick 4.20. Corr Point a very lucky winner at 8/11 after Stewards enquiry. Ahern on the best horse but nearly paid the price for posing, just get on and win the bleeding race.

[chrisobee]

For Friday, main bets :

 

2.20 - Sandown - Piscean - e/w. @ 16/1 (General)

 

3.35 - Doncaster - Aldermoor - @ 8/1 (General)

 

5.05 - Sandown - Dancing Dude - @ 13/2 (General)

 

8.30 - Beverley - Dimashq - @ 7/1 (General)

 

9.00 - Beverley - Bertie Southstreet - @ 6/1 (General)

 

Others mentions :

 

Doncaster 3.00 Sparkling Smile @ 15/8 : Not absolutely sure to stay the trip, this is a very competitive little race ) 7 go to post).

Sandown 4.35 - Verdant @11/8 : A likely winner but no value IMO.

Beverley 7.55 - Pendragon @ 6/4 : Short enough I think, General Tufto may represent ew value

 

Good luck all,

 

Chris

 

I think I'll "mention" more horses

[saint_stevo]

if i were a gambling man............

 

Champagnelifestyle - 14:50 - Haydock

Acrostic - 14:35 - Sandown

Decorative - 15:40 - Sandown

[chrisobee]

Plenty to get stuck into today already, as it is Saturday there are of course lots of tricky races so fairly small bets.......However, trying to edit on here seems next to impossible so I'll draft my tips/analysis in my email folder and come back !

 

Chris

[frankie]

Really frustrating day yesterday with a lot of second place horses at nice prices..Milton of Campsie beaten a head at 16/1 possibly the most frustrating...not been a great week compared to recent standards so hoping for a turn around of fortunes today with some quality racing.

 

Bungle is on fire at the moment and should be followed whatever he tips today :-)

 

Crossing the water for a few beers with friends today...looking forward to meeting up and talking about the new season...although the lack of anything happening transfer wise limits things a bit.

 

Sandown

 

2.00 Bould Mover

 

2.35 Charlie Cool

 

3.10 Zacinto

 

3.40 Virginia Hall

 

4.50 Mass Rally

 

5.25 Lovers Causeway

 

Haydock

 

2.15 Berling should whoop the opposition but not a price to back for me i'm afraid

 

2.50 Grace O' Malley

 

3.25 Submariner....Spirit is Needed (E/W)

 

4.00 Livin it Large

 

4.35 Captain Dunne

 

5.10 Haajes

 

5.45 Sir Frank Wappat

 

Leicester

 

1.55 Posy Fossil

 

3.35 Redden

 

Carlisle

 

6.55 Frognal

 

8.25 Mr Rainbow

 

Take care all, have fun whatever you may be doing today

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Finally ! For now :

 

Haydock 2.15 : Would like to oppose short priced favourite Berling @ 4/6 but he looks way ahead of the handicapper. With only 7 going to post no real sense going ew though Anhar @7/1 is an excellently bred colt and might cause an upset so worth considering for a small bet/forecast.

Sandown 2.35 Set The Trend @ 8/1 : From the Andrew Balding yard this four year old gelding comes into the race having finished second last time out at Epsom and it is thought that he can follow in the footsteps of stable mate Spanish Acclaim who won yesterday at 16/1. Lightly raced type, the kind of horse which tends to do well in this contest.

Beverley 2.45 Good Morning Dubai @ 11/4 :Made a very pleasing debut despite running very green under pure hands & heels from Fallon (literally didn't even flick the stick) and likely to improve significantly for racing.

Salisbury 3.10 Twice Over @9/4/ Mawatheeq @6/1 : Twice Over looks the one to beat in a small field of 6 though only Sri Putra looks outclassed.Mawatheeq is closely related to Rumoush and Ghanaati, exceeded all expectations last year and has been delayed this term following a small setback. Highly regarded and considered a live contender for the King George or late season targets.Every chance if back to his best.

Beverley 3.50 Select Committee @8/1 : Trained by John Quinn and ridden by the excellent Ian Brennan who is very good value for his five pound claim this five year old gelding was fourth last time out and hopefully can win today over five furlongs.

Haydock 3.25 Spirit is Needed ew @28/1 : I see Frankie has cottoned on to this one, possibly for the same reason as me. Despite disappointing on last 2 starts he is a C&D winner which always rate as a positive, at the price a small ew bet is certainly worth taking.

Haydock 4.35Edge Closer @ 7/1 ( Skybet)/ :Genki is the short priced favourite and come about 4.45 the 15/8 available at Totesport might prove very good value. However, at a bigger price Edge Closer appeals even if he is not as effective as he once was. From the powerful Richard Hannon yard this six year old bay was a close up fifth last time out at Windsor,should go well in the hands of Richard Hughes. 3 defections already in this race, if the 8 that remain run going ew could be the safe option.

Sandown 4.50: Oil Strike @9/1 : Given a considerate ride from a difficult draw on reappearance after long absence, shaping with promise and likely to be competitive in this company if he gets more rub of the green.

Sandown 5.25 Beachfire @ 2/1 Nap :The rapidly improving Beachfire should be hard to beat, stepped up 1fl but down slightly in grade and only revised 5lbs upwards for his recent success at this venue. The extra distance is expected to suit.The excellent William Buick takes the ride. The 2/1 at Corals looks generous, probably a 11/8- 6/4 shot.

 

Good luck one and all, hopefully more winners today !?

 

Chris

Edited 3 July, 2010 by chrisobee
Amend analysis

[chrisobee]

Really frustrating day yesterday with a lot of second place horses at nice prices..Milton of Campsie beaten a head at 16/1 possibly the most frustrating...

 

 

 

Frankie

 

That's the way it goes, Piscean won by a short head at 16/1 !

Your luck will change, maybe not today but soon:D

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Finaly for today:

 

2.35 - Sandown Mr Willis - e/w. @33/1 (General)

3.25 - Haydock - Thin Red lIne - @ 12/1 (General)

3.35 - Leicester - Sir Bruno - e/w. @ 20/1 (General)

3.40 - Sandown - Virginia Hall - @ 8/1 (General)

8.25 - Carlisle - Stevie Gee - e/w. @ 14/1 (General)

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

[bungle]

I was on Saratosa...

 

Hillview Boy in 2 points and strong on Betfair.

 

Giddy up!!

 

Worst tip ever!

 

Had a bit on Twice Over, so profit for today!