Random Horse Tips

[chrisobee]

Hey Steve at least a winner a day from this forum :-), but we are just messing mate.

 

Frankie

 

Haha, Dovedon Angel obliges at 9/1, Capaill Laith easy as you like backed into 10/11. Bombadero did get turned over by Emerging Artist, not a great surprise in truth judging by the market.

So are we really messing about or not Frankie;)

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

2 early tips for this evening:

 

Lingfield 5.45- Dovedon Angel; @ 6/1 : No doubt Relative Strength has a good chance running off a career low mark but I'm going to oppose Frankie's selection with Dovedon Angel. Gay Kelleway’s runner is upgraded into this Class 5 following frame finishes in 5 of his last six appearances but there is a good chance he’s more than capable of rising to the occasion. The Kelleway yard is in cracking form and I'm sure Dovedon Angel will be winning soon enough, hopefully today !

 

Chepstow 7.50 - Bombadero@ 5/4 NAP : Not a great price but the selection has been runner up on last 2 starts, most recently to Caucus who ran well at Royal Ascot. That was over the same course and distance, Bombadero has reportedly been working well at home. Emerging Artist may pose the main threat on only his 2nd start.

 

Good luck,

 

Chris

 

Just having a laugh Stevo. One more for tonight :

 

Windsor 7.10 Capaill Laith @ 6/4

 

Good luck Frankie and Stevo, Cape Quarter a decent price @5/1 with exactly 8 in the field and Aegean Shadow too short.

 

Chris

 

Sorry, misqouted above post, d'oh. I'm clearly not so bright

 

Cape Quarter ran a decent race to place 3rd at 5/1, could not have picked the 25/1 winner ! Relative Strength did turn over Bombadero but Capaill Laith, easily, and Dovedon Angel, gamely, ensured a nice profit. Rare indeed for a Monday.

Great race with Admin/Bubbly Bellini, don't get many dead heats these days !

 

Chris

Edited 21 June, 2010 by chrisobee
Haven't really got a clue what I'm doing !

[saint_stevo]

my comment was in jest............although i guess Chrisobee's pension could do with a top up?

[chrisobee]

2 early tips for this evening:

 

Lingfield 5.45- Dovedon Angel; @ 6/1 : No doubt Relative Strength has a good chance running off a career low mark but I'm going to oppose Frankie's selection with Dovedon Angel. Gay Kelleway’s runner is upgraded into this Class 5 following frame finishes in 5 of his last six appearances but there is a good chance he’s more than capable of rising to the occasion. The Kelleway yard is in cracking form and I'm sure Dovedon Angel will be winning soon enough, hopefully today !

 

Chepstow 7.50 - Bombadero@ 5/4 NAP : Not a great price but the selection has been runner up on last 2 starts, most recently to Caucus who ran well at Royal Ascot. That was over the same course and distance, Bombadero has reportedly been working well at home. Emerging Artist may pose the main threat on only his 2nd start.

 

Good luck,

 

Chris

 

Just having a laugh Stevo. One more for tonight :

 

Windsor 7.10 Capaill Laith @ 6/4

 

Good luck Frankie and Stevo, Cape Quarter a decent price @5/1 with exactly 8 in the field and Aegean Shadow too short.

 

Chris

 

my comment was in jest............although i guess Chrisobee's pension could do with a top up?

 

It sure could Stevo, how did you know I receive a private pension !? Anyway, it is now duly topped up and I can buy some food

[frankie]

They rarely come in but Kieran Fallon seems to have a good book of rides at Chepstow tonight so have stuck them all in a 20p win lucky 63.....on to my singles.

 

Chepstow

 

7.20 a race full of trailblazers and this might help my tip My Name is Frank, he likes to come off a strong pace and if not run off his feet he may be able to peg back the leaders and get his head in front on the line, Liel looks an intersting contender.

 

7.50 John Dunlops horses seem a bit in and out at the moment so I am going to oppose his favourite in this with Emerging Artist, he was staying on nicely at this trip on his debut and should come on for that run, an interesting outsider is Mhilu, he has been in good form over the jumps and could surprise.

 

9.20 Omaruru didn't seem to stay 1 mile 2 last time out so this 1 mile trip should be much more to his liking, Mark Johnston has bought his horses some distance for this meeting so they must be feared tonight.

 

Windsor

 

6.40 a wide open little race with Hannons Pastello a tempting horse and big odds, but I am going to side with Dolcetto, he won easily on his debut for the A King yard, and he does well with his smattering of flat runners, the horse won over 1 mile 4 last time so this trip holds no fears unlike some of his opponents.

 

8.10 and 7.40 I feel Gene autry 7.40 and Dance East 8.10 have by far the best form of their opponents but are prohibitive odds, so will be chucking them in to a double.

 

8.40 I will have a few quid on Bernies Moon...go on Bernie

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Well actually Chris i'm not too sure about this tipping lark mate, the Fallon lucky 63 was a bit of a disaster but Emerging Artist won nicely at 2/1 Dolcetto won at 25/1 !!!! and my double of Gene Autry and Dance East obliged!!! with your winners as well Chris that is some fair old tipping mate.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

T

 

 

6.40 a wide open little race with Hannons Pastello a tempting horse and big odds, but I am going to side with Dolcetto, he won easily on his debut for the A King yard, and he does well with his smattering of flat runners, the horse won over 1 mile 4 last time so this trip holds no fears unlike some of his opponents.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Great 25/1 winner Frankie !!

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Well actually Chris i'm not too sure about this tipping lark mate, the Fallon lucky 63 was a bit of a disaster but Emerging Artist won nicely at 2/1 Dolcetto won at 25/1 !!!! and my double of Gene Autry and Dance East obliged!!! with your winners as well Chris that is some fair old tipping mate.

 

Frankie

 

Just caught up with all the races now, missed the 6.40 until now. Great tip at 25/1, we definitely should start charging !!

I nearly jumped ship on Bombadero as well in favour of Emerging Artist but decided not to put the jinx on it !

 

Chris

[saint_stevo]

the acid test, tell me where to put the £6 in my account tomorrow..............then i would consider a subscription to Frankobee's tipping service

[chrisobee]

the acid test, tell me where to put the £6 in my account tomorrow..............then i would consider a subscription to Frankobee's tipping service

 

I could tell you Stevo but I'd probably get an infraction for it !

[frankie]

On to Tuesday and if we can have half a good a day as yesterday then we will be in clover.

 

Beverley

 

3.15 This isnt the strongest of races, despite being on quite a high mark I really fancy Fujins Dancer to take all the beating here, he ran a really good race behind the useful Forte De Marmei last time and would have been closer but for meeting trouble in running.

 

Thats it for Beverley i'm afraid not the most inspiring of cards

 

Brighton

 

3.00 Desert Liason was beaten favourite last time out on just her 3rd run, she obviously has some ability and now in handicaps and dropped in trip she looks an interesting runner. Noseda and Queally are in good form so thats another positive.

 

3.30 Yourgolftraveldotcom has finished runner up in his last three outings and doesnt look that genuine a horse, I think he will finish second again here, I take Little Sark to win this contest, he has only run here once winning over this course and distance, he was defeated over a longer trip last time out, hopefully the step back in distance and a return to Brighton and the sea air will see a return to form.

 

4.30 Super Frank is one of those horses that is often punted if fancied to go in so it may be worth watching the betting before plunging in on him, he ran well on his reappearance but failed to build on that when apprentice ridden next time out, he has though slipped to a mark a pound lower than his last win and in a pretty poor race he stands a good a chance as many.

 

Not that inspiring although I fancy a few in the evening, good luck all

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

I could tell you Stevo but I'd probably get an infraction for it !

 

watch it old man.....

[frankie]

the acid test, tell me where to put the £6 in my account tomorrow..............then i would consider a subscription to Frankobee's tipping service

 

Brighton 3.00 Desert Liason mate...thats the selection :-)

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

Brighton 3.00 Desert Liason mate...thats the selection :-)

 

Frankie

 

i'll get on tomorrow, no price yet, but it will get the full £6 on the nose....

[chrisobee]

i'll get on tomorrow, no price yet, but it will get the full £6 on the nose....

 

I think you'll probably get 5/2-3/1 Stevo, that would be the kind of price I'd be looking at. So no 25/1 winner but hopefully a nice winner for you nonetheless. He's either brave or very foolish that Frankie I'll tell you !

Check, these are the forecast prices :

 

9/4 Choreography, 9/2 Desert Liaison, 5/1 Ocean Countess, 6/1 Dashing Beauty

 

If you can get 9/2 that would be great value but I think it unlikely, Dashing Beauty is anything but dashing so 6/1 looks way too short and both Desert Liaison and Ocean Countess ( who might even be favourite) far too big a price. We'll see.

[saint_stevo]

got 3/1. £6 on the nose

[chrisobee]

Nothing earth shattering springs out for me today though 2 smart horses I think are very likely winners but both short odds are :

 

Beverley 3.45 - Polish World @ 6/4 : Although given no respite from the handicapper for his 6 lengths Ripon triumph last Thursday Polish World loves the track at Beverley and should complete a hat-trick this afternoon. He appeared to be running loose on the way to that success over Mississipian last time out but still won with some ease. Looks to be still some way ahead of the handicapper. Northern Flyer at a best priced 9/1 may well be the closest challenger.

 

Newton Abbot 7.35- Smack That @ evens : Smack That could not have been more impressive on his first start for the trainer at Aintree, coming home unchallenged. The switch to better ground from the soft conditions he experienced in Ireland appeared to bring about marked improvement and this in-form novice can run-up a sequence over fences. Gee Dee Nen may well be the one for the forecast in a small field of 5.

 

That may well be my lot for today, will probably do these 2 in a double but unless I find some value elsewhere I'm going to leave my pension pretty much intact !

 

Good luck, go Desert Liaison, 7/2 at Skybet.

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

The best news of the day, having looked at the 3.00 I'm going to oppose Frankie My final selections today :

 

3.00 - Brighton - Hi Shinko - @ 8/1.Behind Ocean Countess and Choreography over C/D last time out but ran better than his finishing position suggests after running too freely early on.If he gets stronger handling today and now back to his last winning mark his form at Epsom last September suggests he is still worth an interest at a track like this. Yard send just the one to the races today. Has been very well backed this morning !

 

4,30 - Brighton - Dualagi - @ 6/1. Opposing Frankie again here, it gets better......or worse depending how things pan out ! No doubt Super Frank has a live chance but I'm going with Dulagi who looks very well handicapped and who had no chance at all last time out when repeatedly baulked when trying to come through.Was never off the bridle but he found plenty of traffic and never got a chance to get to the leaders. The fact he got within just over three lengths of the winner, Boldinor, was very eye-catching and reopposes him today on 5lb better terms. Will certainly need more luck in running, generally comes from off the pace so fingers crossed he can get a clearer run today and for sure doesn't hamper or get hampered by Super Frank !

 

6.20 - Newbury - Black Coffee e/w. @ 16/1.Never cut it as a hurdler for Nicky Henderson and was sold to current connections last month. Finished 10/15, beaten nearly nine lengths, returned to the flat but wasn't given a hard time and made up a bit of late ground over ten furlongs at this track. Longer trip this evening may suit and he wouldn't be badly handicapped on his maiden form of a few seasons ago. Placed in a couple of flat handicaps in Ireland last Summer and decent Apprentice booked. Faces several in form opponents but could surprise a few if he is put into the race.

 

Good luck !

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Brighton 3.00 Desert Liason mate...thats the selection :-)

 

Frankie

 

Seneschal at 50/1 by a distance, would never have called that. Been some real long shots going in lately including a 101/1 and a 93/1 or so ( Betfair) yesterday.

Hard work this racing lark !

 

Chris

[frankie]

Seneschal at 50/1 by a distance, would never have called that. Been some real long shots going in lately including a 101/1 and a 93/1 or so ( Betfair) yesterday.

Hard work this racing lark !

 

Chris

 

Christ mate, my tipping career over after one tip...sorry Stevo

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

tut!

[frankie]

Pheww what an awful day my tips stunk the place out....a few for tonight but no writeup i'm afraid.

 

6.50 Lovat Lane

7.55 Beaumont's Party

8.30 Sea of Heartbreak

9.00 Avrilo

 

Newton Abbot

7.00Heir to Be

8.10 Gunslinger

8.40 William Butler

9.10 Sagunt

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Pheww what an awful day my tips stunk the place out....a few for tonight but no writeup i'm afraid.

 

6.50 Lovat Lane

7.55 Beaumont's Party

8.30 Sea of Heartbreak

9.00 Avrilo

 

Newton Abbot

7.00Heir to Be

8.10 Gunslinger

8.40 William Butler

9.10 Sagunt

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Well I thought I was going to draw a blank today but william Butler at 3/1 Sea of Heartbreak at 7/4 and Avrilo....no wait a minute he was beaten by You'relikemefrank at 16/1 I thought he needed more than 5furlongs but luckily had £3.00 at 18/1 on Betfair just in case, so all in all, a good evening, although gutted I didnt tip You'relikemefrank on tipxchange.

 

Frankie

Edited 22 June, 2010 by frankie
added a by

[frankie]

Plenty of racing to be had today and I have a few fancies but beware at Carlisle as I feel there could be a few horses punted on today.

 

Carlisle

 

3.05 Hopefully we'll all be singing Gold when 'Mount Hadley' wins this race tomorrow, he has previous form over this course and distance..his latest form figures arent great but he showed a bit of his old sparkle last time out and hopefully Tom Queally can drive him home.

 

3.35 A really interesting race with both Agapanthus and Pendragon coming from punting yards, but my preference if for another horse from a yard that likes to back its horses in Bivouac, he was flying prior to his last run back that may have come too soon after his previous run, he now has had a break and should run much better...another horse to keep an eye on is Tropical Batchelor who has improved markedly this season.

 

Salisbury

 

3.15 I love Baylini but she is so hard to get right, I fear she may leave her run too late again and despite running well will finish second to the unexposed Karaka Jack, Mark Johnson rarely brings his horses this far south unless they have a real chance, this horse has run well in good company this year and hopefully has enough improvement left in him to take this contest.

 

3.50 a really cracking little race with Comedy Act, Maxim Gorky and Domination all in with chances, but Mataaleb was hugely impressive last time out winning by 5 lengths and if allowed to dictate the pace again he will be hard to pass..his second to Green Moon prior to that also looks useful form.

 

4.55 Shades of Grey doesnt look the most strightforward of rides, but his last run, narrowly beaten by Comedy Act (runs in todays 3.50) was a good run, Adam Kirby rode him on that occasion so will know what is needed, he will be pushing and pulling throughout the race and hopefully he can coax his head over the line in first place.

 

Worcester.

3.25 Dereks

4.00 Don't Call Me Derek

 

 

Thats it for the afternoon selections...a fair few in the evening to come.

 

Good luck England, come on don't let us down.

 

Frankie

[bungle]

Salisbury

 

3.15 Avon River

4.55 Sparkling Smile

 

I note Mark Prescott's Comedy Act is running in the 3.50, but stepping up in distance. Any thoughts?

[chrisobee]

Salisbury

 

3.15 Avon River

4.55 Sparkling Smile

 

I note Mark Prescott's Comedy Act is running in the 3.50, but stepping up in distance. Any thoughts?

 

Would say the 9/2 for Comedy Act freely available is surely worth a few quid. I don't think the increase in trip will be a problem, might even be a plus and Sir Mark Prescott is clearly no mug when it comes to getting his horses ready. I might even have considered an ew double with Huzzah one of my selections but only 6 runners so won't be doing that.

Really concentrating on the football, reckon it's nail biting time, at least I have nails to bite having wisely not cut them since the Algeria game.

Tips only :

 

 

Worc 14:55 Mous Of Men

Carl 15:05 Flowing Cape

Salis 15:15 Huzzah : Well we have 3 v the field between us and Baylini a N/R so hopefully a winner for one of us

Carl 15:35 Sir Royal Each Way

Bath 18:40 Second To Nun

Kemp 20:50 Speed Dating NAP

 

Good luck though I'll gladly settle for an England win and 3 losers !

 

Chris

 

Edit: Not so sure about 6 losers as it would now be!

Edited 23 June, 2010 by chrisobee
Add tips

[frankie]

A better performance by England, although not great and plenty of room for improvement... As for my tipping i'm blaming the Tipexchange, not posted a winner on their yet, so will not post this evenings and see what happens.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

This evenings selections, just selections i'm afraid have to go to the mainland with the missus, the bloody horse has injured itself...damn things

 

Kempton

6.20 Uncle Keef and Graylyn Ruby

7.50 Bilko Pak

8.20 Pose

 

Bath

6.40 Darcey

7.40 Humidor

8.10 Miss Miracle

9.10 Parc De Princes

 

Naas.

Solent Ridge

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

[frankie]

This evenings selections, just selections i'm afraid have to go to the mainland with the missus, the bloody horse has injured itself...damn things

 

Kempton

6.20 Uncle Keef and Graylyn Ruby Ruby won at 20/1

7.50 Bilko Pak Won 5/2

8.20 Pose 2nd 6/1

 

Bath

6.40 Darcey Nowhere

7.40 Humidor 2nd

8.10 Miss Miracle Won 100/30

9.10 Parc De Princes 2nd 3/1 Fav !!!! very well backed

 

Naas.

Solent Ridge Won 5/1

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Well a cracking night, and I suggest you lay my day selections and back my evening tips the way things are going at the moment....glad I had a few winners as the missus' horse has had an argument with some barbed wire and it could cost quite a bit...bloody things. I forgot to mention Uncle Keef is definitely a horse to keep the right side of in marathon trips, he was given far too much to do in todays race and will win more races.

 

Frankie

Edited 23 June, 2010 by frankie
Added Uncle Keef notes

[frankie]

Here are my selections for today and some decent racing...as I have said might be a good idea to lay my daytime selections and back the evening ones...although trying hard next couple of days as have a massive vets bill to pay.

 

And has anyone seen Kip, he can't have had a placepot up for some time as he hasnt posted on here ;-)

 

Goodwood.

 

2.00 Getcarter really impressed me with the nature of his win at Windsor this season, since then he has been tried in a higher grade and has run well but not won, now back down in grade and over a trip and track that should suit him I fancy Getcarter to return to winning ways.

 

2.35 Two horses have some decent form in this race, Scorn has been second on the last 4 occasions and ran behind the improving Sea of Heartbreak last time out, and Ship's biscuit has finished third to Fatanah who has run will in a listed race beaten a short head and then ran decently at Royal Ascot, that form looks good, hopefully Ships Biscuit will go into the stalls this time (didnt last time) and will take this race with Scorn second.

 

3.10 Red Twist is an interesting contender in a wide open race, he has been running very well over hurdles and is on a cracking handicap mark, hopefully he can transform his hurdles form to the flat and take advantage of a lenient mark...Wightgold is one to note, he ran well for a long way last time out but I think as last time this trip may just be too far for him.

 

Newcastle.

 

3.20 Justonefortheroad ran a cracker after 7 months off and will surely improve further for that run, there are several hold up horses in this race which will hopefully set it up for my selection he blazes a trail and will hopefully stay there....Collaterel Damage is one to keep an eye on, I nearly selected him but feel he is just too high in the weights at the moment.

 

4.30 Sajjhaa could well win this by a street. but inexperience plus the poor run in the Oaks and a very short price mean I have looked for an alternative, Island Sunset won her first four starts before being upped in class where she finished fourth twice, she has had a short break now and if returning to her best could take a hand here.

 

5.40 Dechiper has poor recent form figures but there are 3 reasons to have a punt on him today, he loves this course he has won five times in his career and those 5 wins have come here at Newcastle, his lowest winning mark was 51, he is now on a mark of 50 and he has a good jockey on board in Makin. This isnt the strongest of races so lets hope Dechiper can renew his love affair with Newcastle.

 

Warwick

 

2.55 Hand Painted would be interesting if fit, but my selection is Alice Alleyn, Stoutes horses so often improve for a run and this lightly raced filly will hopefully come on for the run, she is unexposed too and could be anything.

 

4.05 Seta is a very short price for this race and on known form should take all the beating, but I am going to oppose him, Luca Cumani has a terrible record at this track 0-23. Prescotts Virginia Hall is an interesting runner but may need the run, so preference is for the seasonally (is that a word) unbeaten Dever Dream, she has improved with every run, and the step up to 7 furlongs should see even more improvement.

 

4.40 Saint Thomas has excuses for his recent defeat (not liking Chester for one) but his run before that when winning nicely gives him a lively chance here, his trainer is also in great form...plus he has the word Saint in his name :-)

 

Thats it my lays :-) for today...good luck all.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

This evening tips.

 

Leicester

6.40 Short Cut.

7.10 Lockantanks

7.40 Chincoteague

8.10 Love Match

8.40 Snow Legend

9.10 Jay's Treaty

 

Hamilton

 

7.30 Coconut Ice

8.00 and 8.30 a small double of Inqaath and ****ney

9.00 Wicked Wilma

9.30 Almaty Express

 

Cheers

 

Frankie

[frankie]

This evening tips.

 

Leicester

6.40 Short Cut.

7.10 Lockantanks

7.40 Chincoteague

8.10 Love Match

8.40 Snow Legend

9.10 Jay's Treaty

 

Hamilton

 

7.30 Coconut Ice

8.00 and 8.30 a small double of Inqaath and ****ney

9.00 Wicked Wilma ... win 17/2

9.30 Almaty Express ... win 14/1

 

Cheers

 

Frankie

 

 

After a single winner (Ship's Biscuit) in the day I thought this evening was going to draw a blank too, until Wicked Wilma (17/2) and Almaty Express (14/1) kept up a frankly crazy winning streak for me.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Very quiet on here but i'm gonna keep on going as it seems to be lucky for me at the moment.

 

Doncaster.

 

2.50 After a quiet spell when his horses didnt seem to be running to well, Stuart Williams horses ran much better today, meaning his horses need a closer look now, he saddles an interesting runner in this race Swansea Jack has shown little in three races to date, but now in handicap company and on a very low weight he will hopefully show much improved form.

 

4.35 Mac's Power will be a popular choice for many punters but Imperial Djay cannot be ignored in his current form, he keeps running well despite a rise in the weights, and until the handicapper has got hold of him it will pay to follow him.

 

5.40 A tricky little race despite the small field, I cannot desert Saga De Tercey though, he was backed into favouritism on hos last two runs before running disspointingly, obviously he was expected to run much better with the money down, so today may be the day, the horse has a good record, with 10 runs he has won 4 times and been placed on 2 occasions, Swinbank remains in good form and hopefully the horse will repay punters tomorrow.

 

Folkestone

 

3.40 A wide open cracking little race, so I am going for two at big prices against the field, my first is Earlsmedic, who has struggled his last two runs, but as I have stated before Williams horses seemed to be a bit out of form at that time and now they are back firing he is worth a punt especially as he is so well handicapped, being 3 pound lower than his last win...I also like the look of Peter Island who looked a progressive improving type before going to France for a run where he bombed, hopefully back on home soil he can sparkle again and take a hand in proceedings.

 

Market Rasen

 

Nothing leaps off the page at me here, Tim Vaughan remains in great form with his summer jumpers....but I may have a few quid on McCoys mounts as they look to have a lively chance of winning.

 

Good luck

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

Banana Republic - 25 Jun 2010 19:35 - Newmarket

[frankie]

Very quiet on here but i'm gonna keep on going as it seems to be lucky for me at the moment.

 

Doncaster.

 

2.50 After a quiet spell when his horses didnt seem to be running to well, Stuart Williams horses ran much better today, meaning his horses need a closer look now, he saddles an interesting runner in this race Swansea Jack has shown little in three races to date, but now in handicap company and on a very low weight he will hopefully show much improved form. Ran a good race to finish fourth and definitely one to keep an eye on

 

4.35 Mac's Power will be a popular choice for many punters but Imperial Djay cannot be ignored in his current form, he keeps running well despite a rise in the weights, and until the handicapper has got hold of him it will pay to follow him. Imperial Djay may now be in the handicappers grip or just needs a break

 

5.40 A tricky little race despite the small field, I cannot desert Saga De Tercey though, he was backed into favouritism on hos last two runs before running disspointingly, obviously he was expected to run much better with the money down, so today may be the day, the horse has a good record, with 10 runs he has won 4 times and been placed on 2 occasions, Swinbank remains in good form and hopefully the horse will repay punters tomorrow. Saga was a non runner

 

Folkestone

 

3.40 A wide open cracking little race, so I am going for two at big prices against the field, my first is Earlsmedic, who has struggled his last two runs, but as I have stated before Williams horses seemed to be a bit out of form at that time and now they are back firing he is worth a punt especially as he is so well handicapped, being 3 pound lower than his last win...I also like the look of Peter Island who looked a progressive improving type before going to France for a run where he bombed, hopefully back on home soil he can sparkle again and take a hand in proceedings.

 

Market Rasen

 

Nothing leaps off the page at me here, Tim Vaughan remains in great form with his summer jumpers....but I may have a few quid on McCoys mounts as they look to have a lively chance of winning.

Tempsford 9/2 and Black Annie 7/2 won for McCoy so not too bad

Good luck

 

Frankie

 

The usual rubbish in the afternoon :-)

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Banana Republic - 25 Jun 2010 19:35 - Newmarket

 

I'm with you on this one Stevo he is better than he has shown so far I think.

 

Newmarket

 

6.30 Aviso

7.00 Calypso Star

7.35 Banana Republic

8.05 rio Mist

8.40 sircozy

9.10 Fleeting Star

 

More to follow

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Here are some more

 

Newcastle-Cracking card again

 

6.50 George Adamson

7.25 Captain Dunne

9.00 Frognal and Slikback Jack

9.30 Lees Anthem

 

Chester

 

6.40 Smart Red

7.15 Barnstorm

7.45 Desert Kiss

8.20 Aldermoor

9.20 Elusive Fame

 

Definitely due a bad evening so not expecting too much tonight

 

Frankie

[frankie]

My good evening form continued with Captain Dunne gaining a deserved win at 5/1, Calypso Star (4/1) and Sircozy (11/2) winning at Newmarket and Desert Kiss (5/2) at Chester..As for Banana Republic he went off like a scalded cat and had no chance, he may need blinkers, visor, cheekpieces or all three in future !!!!

 

Looks a great day tomorrow, Chris O can't log on to the forum for some reason.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Chris O is back Frankie No idea what the problem was ? I know absolutely the feeling when you are posting and no one else is, take it from me if you go back over this thread I've been talking to myself many times and for a few weeks sometimes !

Anyway the boy did great on his own, as per my FB message was more than happy with Swiss Diva last night, my only bet but ran well in defeat and one definitely to watch out for.

Just for now going to concentrate on the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, 3.05. This is a race where the trends are very strong and I believe are a better way than most to pick a likely winner.

With thanks to Key Racing News for much of this data this is a good summation as to what to look for :

 

Two types hold sway in this; horses from the hurdles sphere laid out to win or flat horses at peak of fitness, typically primed with a race within the last 3 weeks. Of the last 14 winners, all 11 from the flat had raced within the past 21 days, some at Ascot but most elsewhere.

 

Only 1/10 winners carried more than 8-11. Horses prepared with this in mind won't have won last time out on the flat (1/10), although they might over hurdles. It's worth noting that in both cases it was the same horse, Bangalore, who was the one to defy these trends. So in general, barring an unusual type, the trends look strong.

 

In terms of stamina, 12/14 winners had previously won over a minimum 13fl and 13/14 raced over 14fl+ LTO. Running the trends leaves just 3 likely candidates: Overturn, Rajik & Aaim To Prosper.

 

Rajik is effectively 7lbs higher without Mr Joseph O'Brien. Fast ground and a strong pace are ideal, and he could well improve markedly on the Ascot run (settled out the back from a poor draw off a muddling pace), but thanks to James Sullivan who claims 5 aboard Aaim To Prosper, Rajik has to make up 4 lengths from their last meeting while also conceding a further 12lbs.

 

Aaim To Prosper ran an excellent race at Ascot. He shaped as if a slightly sharper test would suit, and well-watered fast ground (it was 8.6 on the stick at Ascot) should be fine. He comes here on an unchanged mark although lighter overall given the claim. He's admirably consistent and does it the hard way, rarely appearing outside Group 1 venues.

 

Overturn is a contender from the hurdling division, feasibly weighted on his flat form and in excellent heart this spring. Such a busy campaign raise a doubt, but he's been freshened up and could deliver improvement if running anywhere close to his hurdles form.

 

He stayed on well to win over 14fl on the flat (on soft) and with NH prep should certainly get the extra 2 furlongs in faster conditions. The ground is faster than ideal, but probably still within his range. The yard have been in great form.

 

From outside the trends Mamlook is respected and may warrant a cover, although the winner of the Chester Cup has not won this since 1974. Nevertheless, fast ground does increase the chances of a horse with more weight bucking the trends. Another to consider from outside the trends is Bernie The Bolt who didn't like the tight turns at Chester, wants it quick and been prepared with this in mind ever since.

 

Looking at the current prices Aaim to Prosper looks a great price on BF at 24/1 and £10 win, £5 place isn't going to break the bank so an unusually early bet for me but at the price has to be backed.

Plenty to look at though any thoughts on the 8.50 at Doncaster are welcome. Marywell looks a silly price at around 4/5 so looking to take her on even though she may well be good enough. Ertiyaad @ around 8/1 appeals though hasn't run for 227 days so Egmarey ( around 5/1) might be the pick, she's a lot better than the bare form at Salisbury 13 days ago suggested though still ran well to take 4th at 28/1.Her path up the rail was blocked and forced to check but then ran on showing she had plenty to give. Of significant interest, particularly stepped up to 9 or 10fl (by Oasis Dream & half sister to a 12fl winner).

 

Back later, good luck "all", where is kipper, is he on holiday ??

 

Chris

[frankie]

Great to have you back Chris O, those trends are interesting but my selection will probably try to buck the trend..as for Doncaster, of all the races why choose the 8.50 !!!! looks almost impossible to find an angle...still good luck today and here are my selections, lets hope I actually pick some daytime winners and not just leave it till the evening :-)

 

Newcastle.

 

2.00 I really like the look of last years winner Knot in Wood, but at just a shade under 3/1 on betfair he doesnt represent much value so I am going to side with Mick Channon (Probably need my head tested) and Mister Hughie, he would almost certainly have won last time if not hampered and falling, Channon seems to be in good form with for him a decent strike rate at present, so for small stakes its Mister Hughie.

 

2.30 Poets Place will be the likely favourite after running well on only his third start, but his inexperience may be a negative in a race such as this, Medici Time seems to be a horse that either runs well or shockingly and rarely runs two good races in a row, I am hoping he will buck that trend today, he was really impressive last time out in a 6furlong race at Leicester winning easily, Easterby remains in good form and hopefully he can win here, another at a big price to consider is Excusez Moi, Ruth Carr is in good form and this horse has slipped to a very tempting handicap mark this seems to be his time of the year too so may be a worth a few quid.

 

3.05 With the favourite at a skinny price it could pay to go for a couple in this race to hopefully prevail, Bernie the Bolt looked extremely progressive last year, and looked brilliant especially on his last run of the season where he thrashed the field, he had excuses at Chester, he should love this track and ground and if returning to form will take alot of beating, I also like Aaim to Prosper, he has been really consistent in three runs this year and deserves to take a big prize, this is his best trip and the blinkers are reapplied which should help him.

 

3.40 Hajoum was 50/1 when running at Royal Ascot and finishing fourth, he wont be anywhere near that price here but if reproducing that form will take al the beating.

 

Newmarket

 

2.15 How often do you find an unbeaten Richard Hannon horse not favourite, its for that reason I side with Jollywood she has only scraped home in her last two runs but has shown a good attitude, Richard Hannon must have a host of horses he could have run in this, so at a nice price Jollywood will hopefully complete her hattrick.

 

2.45 Godolphin aren't the most dependable stable but I really like the look of Whispering Gallery in this, 2 miles stretched his stamina last time and he clearly didnt stay, now back in trip he looks to have a serious chance, Man of Iron if fit for his debut could be a danger.

 

3.20 Doncaster Rover ran a cracking race last time, when 2nd to Main aim, his stable are going well this year and with question marks about some of his opponents I hope Doncaster Rovers can get a well earned victory.

 

4.30 Come on Baylini you can do it.

 

As for the non televised meetings

 

Windsor.

2.25 Frankish Dynasty

2.55 Ordnance Row

3.30 Shifting Star

4.00 Record Breaker

 

Chester

3.45 Rule Breaker

4.20 Dancing Red Devil

5.25 Destiny's Dream.

 

Good luck all, come on you horses.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Great to have you back Chris O, those trends are interesting but my selection will probably try to buck the trend..as for Doncaster, of all the races why choose the 8.50 !!!! looks almost impossible to find an angle...still good luck today and here are my selections, lets hope I actually pick some daytime winners and not just leave it till the evening :-)

 

 

3.05 With the favourite at a skinny price it could pay to go for a couple in this race to hopefully prevail, Bernie the Bolt looked extremely progressive last year, and looked brilliant especially on his last run of the season where he thrashed the field, he had excuses at Chester, he should love this track and ground and if returning to form will take alot of beating, I also like Aaim to Prosper, he has been really consistent in three runs this year and deserves to take a big prize, this is his best trip and the blinkers are reapplied which should help him.

 

 

Frankie

 

Frankie. I was looking at the 8.50 because I think Marywell is just too short, that said I'm going to leave it alone as I think she will win though I'm going to be keeping an eye on Ertiyaad who's a well bred filly and might be one to follow.

As for the Northumberland Plate, Bernie The Bolt was one I did say to consider, the favourite is another which is too short but of course as you'd expect it's a tough race.

 

Chris

[frankie]

Frankie. I was looking at the 8.50 because I think Marywell is just too short, that said I'm going to leave it alone as I think she will win though I'm going to be keeping an eye on Ertiyaad who's a well bred filly and might be one to follow.

As for the Northumberland Plate, Bernie The Bolt was one I did say to consider, the favourite is another which is too short but of course as you'd expect it's a tough race.

 

Chris

 

 

Just had a look at that race, agree with you on Stoutes horse, but his often need the run...the biggest danger could be Gosdens second string Strictly Lambada.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Well I have found a lot of horses I like so going to be keeping stakes small, Aaim To Prosper is going to be my main bet :

 

Newc 14:00 Himalya @ 7/4: Looks to me to be between Knot in Wood and Himalaya with preference for the latter. He was only beaten half a length to Treadwell in the Wolferton Handicap and word is has come out of that race incredibly well. Mister Hughie was certainly very unlucky last time out and looks progressive but I suspect might find this race a shade too tough but backing MC's horses at decent prices isn't so bad !

Wind 14:25 Dr Green @ 11/10/ Clever Man @8/1 : Not a great price but Dr Green looks to have every chance to give Richard Hanon another winner. A model of consistency in 3 placed runs so far, he was beaten inches into 3rd in a blanket finish behind Crown Prosecutor at Goodwood last time and sure to go well again. There are a few newcomers and I think Micky Channon's Clever Man who is bred to be speedy might be worth a few bob too.

Newc 14:30 Jonny Mudball @4/1: I really should be on Poets Place in this one given the name and sure to be a big threat. However, with Seb Sanders on board I just have an inkling for Jonny Mudball and I love that name too

Wind 14:55 Aldovrandi @ 3/1 : Only 6 runners but a case could be made for anyone of them. However, Aldovrandi is very lighly raced and gets my vote though not a massive bet by any means.

Newc 15:05 Rajik/ Bernie The Bolt /Aaim To Prosper As above £20 win £10 place : Pretty much summed up above, I do like the chances of Bernie The Bolt who does hail from the right end of the handicap according to the stats and the four-year-old looks sure to be there or thereabouts at the furlong marker. Rajik looks to have a tough task but a few quid on him too.

Newm 15:20 -Doncaster Rover @ 9/2: NAP Never backed him before but caught the eye when 2nd to Main Aim at Haydock last time out, 9/2 is a good price I reckon and he is my NAP ( sorry Francesco !)

Wind 15:30 Edge Closer Each Way @33/1/ Golden Desert@10/1 : Edge Closer had little chance in the Wokingham though the handicapper may have got his measure. That said 33/1 is surely too big for a horse with I think it is 7 career wins including over this course and distance.Golden Desert is another I like though may now prefer further.

Newc 15:40 Deadly Encounter Each Way @12/1 : A winner of three of his thirteen races to date, Richard Fahey's four-year-old looks to be on a winning mark in my book in this grade/company, especially hailing from the right end of the handicap.

Newm 16:30 Gobama @ 8/1 : Quite a few in form fillies in this race but my £1 is going on Gobama. Has improved back on turf of late, winning 1m handicaps at Newmarket (Rowley Course) and Thirsk, surging clear to beat Arabian Mirage 4 lengths at latter track. A 9 lb rise makes life harder but still has a live chance for me.

Wind 17:05 Tap Dance Way @ 7/2 : Probably another raceI should leave alone but Tap Dance Way looks very well treated on handicap debut based on 2 runs in maidens and looks sure to appreciate the trip.

 

Of the other CH4 races the 2.15 at Newmarket might well be between Shoshoni King and Jollywood. However, I think this is a tough race so I'm leaving it alone ( good says Frankie I'm sure ). The 2.45 is another small field, 5 go to post and though you can probably discount the bottom 2 in the betting ( though of course big priced runners abound at present and it is Saturday!) but that still leaves Whispering Gallery, Laheeb and Man Of Iron and again since I cannot call it will leave it be as well. That will probably be my lot ( unless I revisit the 8.50 at Doncaster !).

Best of luck !

 

Chris

Edited 26 June, 2010 by chrisobee

[chrisobee]

Just had a look at that race, agree with you on Stoutes horse, but his often need the run...the biggest danger could be Gosdens second string Strictly Lambada.

 

Frankie

 

Oh for heavens sake make your mind up man ! Just spent an age posting my tips/analysis and NOW you say that ( clearly taken me 30 minutes+ as that post wasn't there when I began my post !) I'll think about it, thanks for the feedback:rolleyes:

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Almost forgot, this quote from David Brown, trainer of Doncaster Rover:

 

"His form has been rock solid. The better ground will help him and the course will be fine. I expect him to be the one they have to beat. He's in good shape - as good as we have had him."

 

At the Curragh I may not back him but I do like Satapadi in the 4.00 for the Stoute/Moore team. Really caught the eye last time out despite getting loose and pulling early on and did well to finish 2nd. May well sit back and see though short priced favourite Profound Beauty looks the only real threat and come 4.10 or so 5/2 may seem too big !?

Back once more to the Doncaster 8.50 ( fascinating race!) and now I'm torn between Ertiyaad, Emparey ( caught the eye lto) AND Strictly Lambada !

 

Chris

[frankie]

Dr Green and Jonny Mudball win nicely for Chris, as for my selections the less said the better, lets hope my evening selections continue to do the business.

 

Posting my selections early as Djing for a charity event tonight, Caribbean Beach Party theme so Hawaiian shirt ready.

 

Doncaster.

6.40 Cuban Quality

7.10 Manic

7.45 Tubby Isaacs

8.15 Flaneur

8.50 Strictly Lambada.....just for you Chris

9.20 Stevie Gee

 

Lingfield

6.20 Avrilo

6.50 Progress

7.25 Becks Bolero

7.55 Baralaka

8.25 Red Amy

 

Have a good evening all (Chris)

 

Frankie

[frankie]

My first losing day in ages happens when Chris O comes back on the forum..surely a coincidence? :-) To be honest I picked a few winners today but changed my mind...a cardinal sin...I also will not be backing any more Mick Channon horses in the future, too hard to catch right.

 

Night all

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Not a bad days racing today, but of course we have the big England game, so i'm off down the pub in a minute for a few ciders and hopefully an England win...placed a few bets on the game...

 

England V Germany bets

Defoe first goalscorer 13/2 £5.00

England 1-0 11/2 £5.00

Defoe first Goal England to win 1-0 28/1 £5.00

Man of the match - England goalkeeper 20/1 £5.00

 

As for the horses I have a feeling I might get a few winners today, the Curragh looks the best card today with the Irish Derby taking place...just selections.

 

Salisbury

2.30 Auld Burns

3.35 Satwa Gold

4.10 Avonmore Star

4.45 Sir Walter Raleigh

 

Windsor

2.20 Al joza

2.50 Picnic Party

4.35 Play it Sam

 

Uttoxeter

2.10 Benedict Spirit

2.30 Minella Four Star

3.45 Quaddick Lake

4.55 Yellow Flag (Nap)

5.30 Cool Bob

 

Curragh

2.15 Arctic

3.15 Samuel Morse

3.50 Flipando

5.10 Co-Ordinated Cut

5.50 Vivacious Vivienne

 

Good luck all, come on England and come on Frankies selections

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Basically just want England to win, too hot really for the poor Gee-gees but a few I like :

 

Uttox 14:10 Danimix

Uttoxeter: 2.40 :Victor Daly ew/That's Rhythm ew

Salis 15:00 Even Bolder Each Way

Uttox 16:20 Just Victor

Wind 16:35 South Cape

 

Come on lads !!

Good luck:)

 

Chris

[frankie]

A few winners yesterday which was a relief after a crap Saturday...didnt touch this afternoon horses but fancy a few tonight.

 

My selections are.

 

Musselburgh

6.55 Andorn

7.25 Raccoon

8.55 Queen's Scholar

9.25 Lady Vrynwy

 

Windsor

6.40 Regal Rocket

7.10 Frank Street

8.10 Ebiayn

8.40 Top Tigress

9.10 Jasmeno

 

Good luck all

 

FRankie

[chrisobee]

A better performance by England, although not great and plenty of room for improvement... As for my tipping i'm blaming the Tipexchange, not posted a winner on their yet, so will not post this evenings and see what happens.

 

Frankie

 

My first losing day in ages happens when Chris O comes back on the forum..surely a coincidence? :-) To be honest I picked a few winners today but changed my mind...a cardinal sin...I also will not be backing any more Mick Channon horses in the future, too hard to catch right.

 

Night all

 

Frankie

 

Well Frankie I thought I had all the excuses in the book but you're now making up your own ! Anyway, I left Monday alone as I only had a few short priced fancies which I couldn't be fussed about so I guess me NOT posting will be Monday's excuse !!

Where are the others who post on here now and again ??

By the way what name do you use on Tip Exchange ? I use the rather inappropriate Elite Tips

Oh, I have found "Frankie", at recommended stakes you're 2 places ahead of me which really is not saying a lot at all, -170pts v -190pts more or less !

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

Edited 29 June, 2010 by chrisobee