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bungle

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted
Not the best of fare today, but have a few fancies and may even do a placepot after Kips win has inspired me (If he can do it surely anyone can :-))

 

I see Prescott saddles four runners today Krypton Factor and Bona Fortuna at Hamilton and Motrice and Coeus at Lingfield where his stable jockey is, giving his current form it could be worth doing a few doubles and trebles on these

 

Hamilton

3.10 One I like the look of at a biggish price is Cayman Fox, he has shown some consistent form over the all weather in the winter, but he likes this course, in his two runs here to date he has finished first and second, it was also in this month last year that he ran here, so he likes this time of year, the jockey also gets on well with him.

 

4.10 King of Eden could well hammer these giving the nature of her latest run, but I really like the look of Cheyenne Red, Dods and Makin remain in good form, the horse likes this course and if breaking a little smarter than last time (and avoiding traffic problems) he may shock the favourite.

 

4.40 Mark Johnston is the leading trainer at this course, so it surprises me that he only runs one horse, Lady Eclair in this race, that must be a sign in itself, he led with three furlongs to go over a longer trip than this but the drop back should be no problem and I expect him to win nicely.

 

At Lingfield I really only fancy the two Prescott horses but not with any massive conviction (looks too obvious)

 

At Newton Abott, I agree with Chris that Souter Point looks good in the first, might be worth doing a double with Osric in the second. Two others I like here at big prices are

 

4.00 Public Esteem

5.00 Lord Francois.

 

Its also worth noting that Irish trainer M O'Hare addles a few runners at Wetherby tonight, they look to have little opportunity but are being backed (he recently had a nice treble up at Naas and looks a bit of a sort for a gamble)

 

Cheers all, good luck with whatever you do.

 

Frankie

 

Well that could well have been a very good day, if Motrice had managed to edge past Goldtrek, but with 3 out of four winners still made a tidy profit on a yankee...

 

Nice to see Mark Johnstons win nicely too, although with the withdrawal the price wasnt great and Public Esteem won at 10/1 at Newton Abbot...Nice to see that Chris and I got the forecast in the 4.10 as well :-)

 

As for tonight, sticking to my guns with a small O'Hare multiple at Wetherby....

 

As for the other meetings, just one selection at Uttoxeter.

7.25 Winchester Red

 

Sandown.

 

6.10 Master Macho

 

6.45 Present Alchemy

 

7.15 Streets of War (Nap)

 

7.50 Dukes Art

 

8.55 Fastback.

 

Good luck tonight all.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

 

As for tonight, sticking to my guns with a small O'Hare multiple at Wetherby....(Less said about this the better, although horses were backed)

 

As for the other meetings, just one selection at Uttoxeter.

7.25 Winchester Red (Came second to Andrew Nick)

 

Sandown.

 

6.10 Master Macho (beaten a short head at 8/1)

 

6.45 Present Alchemy - Rubbish

 

7.15 Streets of War (Nap) - Ran very poorly sorry

 

7.50 Dukes Art - 14/1 Winner !!!!!!!!!

 

8.55 Fastback. - Ran ok, one to keep an eye on

 

Good luck tonight all.

 

Frankie

 

A pretty good day with 14/1 and 11/1 winners the highlights.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted
I did the O'hare super yankee, one winner and one placed, rubbish. Evryone was was backed ealy on, bookies running scared from a possible barney curly type coup.

 

Did you do my two big price winners mate? think I should start charging for this solid gold tipping :-)

 

Frankie

 

p.s. might have to when i'm unemployed in September :-)

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

Away from Epsom win double on :

 

Catt 14:25 Chocolate Caramel

Good 19:20 Duncan

 

Both look to have a fair bit in hand over their rivals, Chocolate Caramel is particularly strongly fancied though at around even money I'm opting for a win double with Duncan who surely would have won at Ascot but for hanging right. The excellent William Buick takes the ride.

 

Good luck,

 

Chris

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Cracking days racing,will post my selections for this afternoon and this evening as of out for a beer at 3...bit of an out of season get together.

 

I agree with Saint Stevo and Banana Republic tonight at Goodwood, he was well fancied last time out and should come on even more for the run.

 

Epsom.

 

1.40 A cracking race to start the day, Godolphins Alexandros has the proven form at this level, but I cant back anything from that stable at the moment as they are very patchy, Penitent looks to be on the upgrade but I am unsure if he will handle this ground and the Epsom undulations, one horse that should do as he is a lovely balanced type is Mabait, he hacked up on his reappearance then ran a corker in the Coronation Cup, this extra furlong should help and he is my selection, for a bigger price fancy watch the Cheka, he has run in some top class races and could run well again.

 

2.10 A pinstickers delight...my pin has fallen on Vitznau, who goes round Epsom ok and Hannon is still in great form, plus a few quid on Extraterresrial, he has run well in top handicaps this year but struggled at Chester last time out, with Dettori on his back and the Fahey team remaining in good form I expect a big run at a big price.

 

2.45 looks between Fame and Glory and Sariska, with preference to the first mentioned horse, won't be playing at these prices but one that may go well at a big price is the unexposed South Easter.

 

3.25 Thin Red Line was extremely impressive on his first start for Dods, and is definitely one to keep on the right side of while in that form, course form is important here and only one horse has that Victoria Sponge, so Thin Red Line and Victoria sponge for me.

 

4.05 A wide open Oaks this year with nothing standing out massively, Cecils Aviate has done nothing wrong winning his three starts to date, but I really like the look of Sajjhaa, he was massively impressive winning his Sandown maiden and is held in very high regard, lets hope he improves again for his first run and takes this race.

 

5.25 Kajima, seeking a hattrick and likes this course.

 

Just selections from now, getting typers cramp :-)

 

Catterick:

 

3.00 Raccoon

 

4.15 Cat O Nine Tails

 

5.15 Soto

 

Wolverhampton

 

1.30 Almaty Express (last chance)

 

2.00 You'relikemefrank (I know, I know!!)

 

2.35 Thaliwarru

 

Thank God Woolston Ferry is a non runner.

 

Evening Selections.

 

Goodwood.

 

6.45 Frankish Dynasty

 

7.20 King of Wands

 

7.50 Banana Republic

 

Doncaster.

 

6.35 Cabal

 

7.10 Ella

 

Bath

 

6.25 Kojak

 

Good luck today guys, may do something with Prescotts runners in a multiple as well, not sure yet.

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

Epsom selections surprisingly on the Epsom thread !

Elsewhere aside from the earlier 2 :

 

Catterick 1.50 Orchid Street @ 13/8 : Looks to set the standard in this race and with only 1 obvious challenger in Miss Clairton who may need further Orchid Street is hard to oppose.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
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Well I have one selection for Bath which you can safely swerve:

 

Bath 7.30 Filligree @ 4/1

 

Finally for today :

 

Doncaster 8.15 Bold Cross ew @ 6/1

 

So with the 1st race at Epsom just around the corner that as is they say is that. Lets hope we buck the usual trend on these big race days and find stacks of winners !

 

Chris

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bungle

bungle

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Selections for high quality meeting at Bath this evening:

 

6.25 Kojak

6.55 Tom Folan

7.30 Secret Witness

8.00 Sunny Future (Aestival clear fav but not worth backing at short odds)

8.35 Act Three

9.05 Aattash (Channon)

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
Selections for high quality meeting at Bath this evening:

 

6.25 Kojak

6.55 Tom Folan

7.30 Secret Witness

8.00 Sunny Future (Aestival clear fav but not worth backing at short odds)

8.35 Act Three

9.05 Aattash (Channon)

I predict a night of frustration with 3 2nd's and a 3rd but no winners, although you will enjoy 2 portions of prawn curry.
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bungle

bungle

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I predict a night of frustration with 3 2nd's and a 3rd but no winners, although you will enjoy 2 portions of prawn curry.

 

Real Ale "festival" at Bath races this evening, so plenty of that but not sure on the curry front. Good chance at 0 winners, though. :(

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted (edited)

Away from Epsom:

 

Musselburgh

 

2.05 Rasaman @ 11/2 :

4.50 Antigua Sunrise @ 5/2.

 

Hexham

 

2.15 Sir Frank NAP : For once the name game looks a winner and I just know Frankie is going to be on this one :D Sir Frank bids to complete a hat-trick in the hands of Brian Hughes. Swinbank gave the 5YO plenty of time to mature and that patience has been rewarded with clear cut successes in a bumper and a novice hurdle. Even at even money looks a decent bet with Majestic Mayhem looking the only horse in the same league. A rare ( for me) reverse forecast here is not beyond the realms of possibility.

 

Lingfield

 

5.50 - Hustle @ 9/2.

 

Newcastle

 

8.00 That'll Do Nicely @ 7/2.

 

Which it will :)

 

Good luck all.

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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frankie

frankie

Posted
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Paaaahhh, what a poor day yesterday, just one winner Soto at 16/1

 

Yourlikemefrank ran a nice race, he was detached until last half a furlong and finished like a train, not going to be a world beater but keep an eye on him especially over 6 furlongs.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
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A few from the other meetings, Epsom is posted in the right thread this time :-)

 

Hexham 2.15, I can't have Sir Frank at that price Chris so am opposing him with Birnies Boy, he looked a winner from a long way out on his last run and that form has worked out pretty well.

 

Musselburgh

 

2.35 ****tail Charlie

 

3.10 Corsica

 

3.40 Ziggy Lee

 

Doncaster

 

2.20 Day of the Eagle

 

2.50 Ginger Jack

 

Worcester

 

1.55 Saint Espiegle

 

3.35 Estate

 

5.10 Franchoek (last chance)

 

Good luck all, with an 11/1 14/1 and 16/1 winner in the last three days, i'm hoping to trump that today :-)

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
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Had a cracking day at Epsom so far today with 3 really nice winners...djing for a wedding tonight so off out, here are this evenings selections.

 

Not too much quality tonight so very small stakes.

 

Lingfield

 

5.50 Billberry

 

6.20 Ask Jenny

 

6.50 Timocracy

 

8.20 Fork Lightning

 

Newcastle

 

7.35 Dechiper

 

8.35 Boss's Destination

 

9.05 Lees Anthem

 

Take care all

 

Frankie

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
Just noticed Micky Channon runs Osgood in the 8.35 at Newcastle. Very Good Day ( another MC horse) who was odds on favourite is a N/R, Osgood trading at 3/1 in what is now a 4 horse race. Come on Ossie :D

 

Just got done, went down to 1.1 on betfair:( out of placepot.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted (edited)

After a load of tosh yesterday ( why is it when Frankie does well I don't and vice versa!? ) going to tip/back only really strong fancies.

 

Brighton

 

4.30 Aegean Shadow@ 9/4 NAP: Won on debut this year albeit narrowly but made a slow start and did well to recover. Tom Queally takes the ride for Henry Cecil and there looks to be plenty of scope for improvement.

5.00 Suzy Alexander @6/4 : Had a really strong word for this George Margarson trained horse and Tom Queally rides this one too. May be a slight risk on handicap debut but certainly looks the one to beat.

 

Win double these two.

 

Southwell

 

3.20 Eight Hours ew @ around 8/1 :Three-time winner up to 6f on AW/turf, but form has taken a marked dip since last win in February and now tried in change of headgear which hopefully will do the trick.

5.50 Budva @9/2 :Handicap newcomer but should appreciate the step up in trip from a mile.Bred to do better over further and at 9/2 looks worth risking that 1m 4f will suit.

 

EW double these 2.

 

Good luck all.

 

Chris

Edited by chrisobee
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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Right back down to earth and on to todays selections.

 

Brighton

 

3.30 Ubiquitos showed some good form last year without winning, if fully wound up for his seasonal debut he could take this race.

 

4.30 Ocean Countess loves it round Brighton, she has run here 5 times, winning four and placed second once, both Aegan Shadow and Buxton are in good form, but I fancy Ocean Countedd to continue her love affair with Brighton.

 

Worcester

 

2.40 Festival Dreams

 

3.40 Ghimaar

 

5.10 Bobble Hat Bob

 

Southwell

 

3.20 Rodrigo Fontana and Somethin' Stupid

 

4.20 Tomintoul Star

 

5.50 Consult

 

Good luck all...One week to the Isle of Wight Festival, can't wait.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Having a little double over in Ireland today...

 

Listowel

 

Trainer Patrick O' Brady says to back his horse Caesars Song in the 5.35, plus his other runner Takestan in the 3.35 is being well backed, so worth a small double me thinks.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted
Me too, got 3/1. He beat the Derby winner by 3 lengths when they met so by that he should be an absolute world beater, strange O'brien has taken him to France rather than take his chance in the English derby.

 

Thing is Ade, I think the value has gone now, I know he beat Workforce, but he had excuses that day, bit went through mouth, seasonal debut (Stoutes often need the first run) plus only second ever run, this is a huge field and anything could happen, I am not betting on the race but if I was i'd look at something like Ice Blue, good French trainer horse has won at the distance and has yesterdays winning jockey Ryan Moore on board.

 

Frankie

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frankie

frankie

Posted
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Found this, very interesting reading and makes my selection of Ice Blue even more promising, might have to back it now.

 

Trends for past 10 years of Prix du Jockey Club:

 

Age

Race for 3yos

 

Breeding

French bred: 4-6-48

Irish bred: 3-4-48

British bred: 2-7-34

American bred: 1-1-20

German bred: 0-1-3

UAE bred: 0-0-1

10 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner

From 2000 to 2004 (when race was run over 1M 4F) 4 of 5 winners were sired by group 1 winner over 1M 4F.

Since 2005 all 5 winners were sired by a horse who had won over no further than 1M 2½F

 

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had had 3 to 6 career starts

10 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 of 3 exceptions placed in group 1's last time out)

7 of 10 winners ran in Longchamp group or listed race last time out

3 of 10 winners ran at Chantilly last time out

10 of 10 winners ran in the last 40 days

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race

10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

4 of 10 winners had won at Chantilly (1 exception was placed on only run here, other 5 were having their first course start)

 

Other Races

French 2000 Guineas winner (Lope De La Vega): 176 (1-0-3)

Record of horses that finished 2nd/3rd/4th in the French 2000 Guineas: 431 (1-1-3)

Prix Noailles winner (Planteur): 41250 (1-1-5), (since race run over 1M 2½F: 50)

Prix Greffulhe winner (Ice Blue): 821008 (1-1-6), (since race run over 1M 2½F: 008)

Prix La Force winner (Simon Montfort): 1070024 (1-1-7)

Prix De Guiche winner (Behkabad): 0175 (1-0-4)

Prix Des Chenes winner (Bekhabad): 105 (1-0-3), (since race run over 1M 2½F: 05)

2 of 10 winners ran in the French 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix D'Avre last time out, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Greffulhe, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in the Criterium International as a 2yo, finishing 17

 

Trainers

French-trained runners: 8-14-105

British-trained runners: 2-3-25

Irish-trained runners: 0-2-20

Rest Of Europe: 0-0-4

Alain De Royer-Dupre (2-2-8) and Pascal Bary (2-1-7) have each trained the winner twice in the past 10 years.

Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-15) won the race last year but has only seen 2 of his 15 runners make the frame.

Andre Fabre (0-4-17) has only won the race once (1997 with Peintre Celebre) and he’s only found 4 places from his 17 runners in the past decade.

Aidan O’Brien (0-1-18) has a terrible record in the race, gaining just 1 place from 18 runners since 2000. The last Irish-trained winner of this race was Caerleon (Vincent O’Brien) in 1983.

 

Price

5 of 10 winners have gone off 12/1 or bigger

No strong trends on prices of winners in this race, though it has not been a race to follow favourites.

Favourites (2-2-12) have won just 2 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 6.14 over past 10 years. 9 of the 10 favourites went off shorter than 3/1 and only 1 of those won and 2 others got placed.

 

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• By a group 1-winning sire who’d won over no further than 1M 2½F

• Run 2 to 3 times this season

• Finished in the first 3 last time out (7 of 10 won)

• Ran at Longchamp or Chantilly on latest start

• Had run in the past 40 days

• Won over 1M+

• Won a group or listed race

• Trained in France or Great Britain

• Trained by P Bary or A Royer-Dupre

• Avoid favourites

 

Frankie

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