Random Horse Tips

[saint_stevo]

nice £45 back from Ziggy Lee, thank god.

 

Cant see any odds on Banana Republic for tomorrow yet

[frankie]

nice £45 back from Ziggy Lee, thank god.

 

Cant see any odds on Banana Republic for tomorrow yet

 

I have him on my horse alerts mate, is 25/1 on Betfair at the moment, just stuck a fiver on.

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

if i take SP online, do i get the odds it goes off at? Or opening odds? Any idea?

[frankie]

if i take SP online, do i get the odds it goes off at? Or opening odds? Any idea?

 

Will be the odds it goes off at mate.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

York et al Day 3 rant...

 

The day began badly as I awoke to find that it was early, very early and no way was I likely to be able to avoid day 3 of the York meeting. So a decent breakfast, a walk to the shops and back RP at the ready to see which poor unsuspecting horses I could scupper today. A chink of light did appear as I visited Oddscheckers and realised Kite Wood ( the only one I was sure I was going to bet on overnight) had already got the message and had decided to stay in bed ( well in his stable I assume at least ) so no chance of scuppering him though it did mean that if I wanted to get involved in the 2.40 it was back to square one. But first things first and in the 1.40 it didn't take too long to decide that I could happily bypass it and move on closer to the 2.40. Still maintaining an unusual level of restraint I did look at the 2.10 first, a few took my eye but having made a few notes I did reach the 2.40 and in spite of it being a very tricky race the Henry Cecil trained Manifest now stood out as a good thing even though in all honesty I would not probably have looked beyond Kite Wood had he still been running so I was now thinking the wretched beast should have limped to the post anyway.

Surprisingly, Diman Waters aside, I really fancied nothing else at York so decided to move on down to Newbury. The first to catch my eye was another Cecil trained horse Principal Role in the 2.55. This seemed too good to miss since no way would good old Henry let me down twice in less than an hour so bet 2 of the day emerged rather easily, too easily I probably should have considered more carefully.

As for the rest of the card a note to look further at Red Courier in the 4.35 and it was off to HQ.

However, it looked like I was going to actually be able to swerve the meeting altogether but Meeznah caught my eye in the 4.10 and with no particular reason I could see that Radio Wave was 5/4 and Meeznah 5/2 this was really the easiest bet of the day to decide on given whatever the result I would like 5/2 on a horse I rated at about a 6/4 shot any day.

So as lunchtime approached I settled on the 3 for now and posted them on here trying hard not to see what else was fancied but Kite Wood i didn't miss and I changed my mind again and thanked heavens he wasn't running since Frankie had been jinxing me for the past 2 days and no way would KW had won if we had both been on.

After a short, too short, lunch break it was back to the horses I had noted earlier and a look at the evening meets.

So in the 2.10 at York I thought Hanoverian Baron looked very interesting and duly decided that even though the RP/timeform suggested the ground might be too quick 8/1 was still a good price and bet 4 was in place.

Nothing else emerged at York so back to it was back to Newbury and the aforementioned Red Courier. It didn't take too much persuading that an ew bet at 11's on a progressive type such as this was perfectly reasonable and so it was, with the off at York very close, back to HQ.

I then realised that the quirky but talented Ramona Chase was running in the 4.45. This was another easy bet to decide on as I knew I'd rather back him and he lost than not back him and he won. So that was almost it until another old friend of mine in Kiwi Bay popped up in the few minutes I spent looking at the Newcastle card and another fairly brainless bet was struck in the 8.25 and randomly became my NAP.

I almost decided not even to bother with Aintree, sleep deprivation was taking it's toll and all I really wanted to do was get a cold drink out of the fridge and stay awake to watch the excitement unfold or as I really felt more likely not unfold or if it did only in so far as I would probably think I was going to land a winner before a 1000/1 shot came from nowhere to land the most unlikely of wins. Worse still I could be sure someone, somewhere I knew was on it and I'd not have to wait long to find out. Still I did glance at Aintree, nearly backed Victor Daly in the 6.00 race but sensibly I thought enough was enough especially as I was likely to need to buy some food over the next few weeks.

So the 1.40 arrived, I duly noted both Frankie and Sir Cato were on Breedj and quickly thought about backing something else but since I didn't have a clue what was going to win decided better of it. Breedj ran a nice race but Primo Lady was a nice winner and the fact Davy Probert was on board and was also riding Hanoverian Baron didn't go unnoticed though I wasn't sure if it was a good thing that the young jockey was in good form or worried that he really was unlikely to get a 63/1 double in the 1st two races. As it turned out I needn't have worried as HB was given a nice ride and once hitting the front and with no 1000/1 shot to worry about it wasn't in doubt though I did manage to have plenty of doubts until he crossed the line well clear.

Finally the week of woe had ended and regardless of what else transpired a profit, albeit small if everything else lost, was secure and I was even able to safely have a few quid on the forum tip of the day in Ziggy Lee and realise the need to rant was finally over........for now at least !

 

Keep the winners coming guys and to quote Sir Cato time to Giddy up to bed !

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Courtesy of:

 

http://www.keyracingnews.com/

 

For info only, Saturday :

 

Eye-catchers

 

Eye-catchers with entries today, flagged up by respected sources over the past few weeks

 

 

 

Ingleby Spirit (GB), 14:30 Newbury

 

A Barr 05/10 - tentatively held up trying 10fl on seasonal debut, but dispelled stamina doubts and shaped as if holding some promise in this sphere if given a more positive ride.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Captain Dunne (IRE), 17:00 Thirsk

 

H Taylor 04/10 - impressive reappearance, held up, no run/wall of horses, twice stopped in run but flew home when clear into a closing 2nd & looked most unlucky. Looks well handicapped on his best form and as good as ever.

 

 

 

Anne Of Kiev (IRE), 20:10 Doncaster

 

H Taylor 04/10 - Looks like she remains at the top of her game (no luck in running latest) & races to be won with her. Looks very fairly treated on turf or AW.

 

Gallops, yards & connections

 

Impressive last week on the Newmarket gallops:

 

 

 

S Bin Suroor, Poet's Voice (F Dettori) - 7fl Limekilns

 

Sir M Stout, Zacinto - 6fl Al Bahathri (Sat)

 

Sir M Stout, Zacinto - went clear of Confront in a highly taking racecourse gallop (July Course, Weds)

 

Press & websites:

 

 

 

Richard Hannon, Paco Boy "He improved through the winter and could not have been more impressive (at Sandown). Forget last year's Lockinge. We were not happy with him on the morning of the race - he came back with an infected hoof and it must have affected his performance".

 

 

 

Barry Hills, Ouqba "We are really looking forward to seeing Ouqba. He has done really well over the winter". He's in great form. This has been his target for a long time and he is certain to go there fresh".

 

 

 

Henry Cecil, Lord Shanakill "His first race is not always his best but I am very happy with him".

 

 

 

Richard Hannon, Plume "Plume has to be right there in the seven furlong handicap. She is still only rated 80 and we think that she is much better than that. She is right back on track at home, and if she is as good as we think she is she has to go close off this mark".

 

 

 

Richard Hannon, Heliodore "Heliodor would have a decent chance in the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury. I am convinced that he will win a Group race this season, and he pulled out a terrific performance with a big weight in a handicap at the Guineas meeting".

 

 

 

Sue Harding, for Mick Channon, Mykingdomforahorse "He had a little bit of a setback in 2009, but he is back on form and running well. He's a good horse and should run a big race".

 

 

 

Richard Hannon, D1ck Turpin (Sunday 16th) "People have under-rated D1ck Turpin. Ryan said that he did everything right at Newmarket, but there will be a bit more juice in the ground at Longchamp, and that will be right up his street. He is a serious horse, and I hope and think he'll go very close".

 

 

 

 

 

Miscellaneous

 

Other in-form or improving runners from the in-house Key Racing News database

 

 

 

Plume (GB), 16:15 Newbury

 

KRN - was aimed at the Guineas but scoped badly, working well again at home and yard think she is far better than current mark of 80.

 

 

 

Discanti (IRE), 16:25 Thirsk

 

KRN - yard's sprinters in very good form. Went from 2nd last to first very easily (on the bridle) at Ripon and then pulled well clear. Only up 8lbs for that, plenty in hand and should be hard to beat again in similar company.

 

 

 

 

 

Trainer/Jockey Stats

 

 

 

Leading trainer/Jockey combinations with a runner (% strike rate at venue):

 

 

 

Newmarket: S Bin Suroor/T Durcan 23%

 

Newbury: M Jarvis/R Hills 50%, M Jarvis/P Robinson 31%, B Meehan/R Hughes 25%, S Bin Suroor/F Dettori 25%, Sir M Stout/R Moore 20%

 

 

 

Hot flat trainers (over last 14 days, with runners declared):

 

 

 

R Hannon 6-14, 43%, M A Jarvis 11-29 38%, J Noseda 5-17 29%, M Dods 6-25 24%, H R A Cecil 5-21 24%, M L W Bell 6-29 21%, C E Brittain 3-14 21%, Sir M Stout 9-44 20%

 

 

 

Leading course trainers (with runners):

 

 

 

Newmarket: J Bolger 6-19 32%, J S Goldie 3-11 27%, H R A Cecil 24-101 24%

 

Newbury: P W D'Arcy 4-8 50%, M A Jarvis 18-67 27%, S Bin Suroor 17-67 25%, L Cumani 11-46 24%

 

Doncaster: J Noseda 12-51 24%, Sir M Stout 12-55 22%

 

Thirsk: W J Haggas 4-17 24%

 

 

 

Notable trainers with runners on the cold list (days/runs since win):

 

 

 

M C Chapman 205/141, J L Spearing 232/102, P T Midgley 36/67, B P J Baugh 140/66, Paul Murphy 172/53, M Mullineaux 106/48, A P Jarvis 90/46, R J Price 72/39, S T Lewis 188/38, M G Rimell 135/38, M A Barnes 34/37, M J Scudamore 46/31

Edited 15 May, 2010 by chrisobee
Extra info

[frankie]

Hehe classic write up Chris O, although blaming me for your failing tips is a bit harsh :-)

To be honest yesterday has been my first winning day in May, so now the May voodoo is broken I hope to get a few more today, but as we have stated before Saturdays often throw up some shocking results, so small stakes today.

 

Newbury

 

1.25 Banana Republic was a tune written by the Boomtown Rats, lets hope this goes to the top of the charts, this race is wide open, and unless one of the newcomers is smart anything could win this, Banana Republic ran well on his second start and if showing that form again he has a great chance, my only worry is that he may be being aimed at Handicaps and they might want to get a lenient mark.

 

2.00 Red Merlin was ultra consistent last year before flopping on his last run, this looks a good opportunity for him to open his account for this season, he has yet to win at a distance as far as this but with question marks against alot of the runners, his stamina is worth chancing.

 

2.30 Monterosso looks to be a typical Johnston progressive sort, he stepped up on his all weather form when winning last time, coming late on the scene, this longer trip should suit him even better...the fav looked smart last time out but offers little value...just noticed Cecils Mingum Bell is near 50/1 on betfair and with his current form i'm throwing a couple of quid on that too.

 

3.05 A no bet race for me as Paco boy looks a good thing here, I will have a little each way on Prince of Dance as he showed some useful form last season and hopefully will improve for his seasonal debut

 

3.40 I am going for an unexposed type here, Desert Phantom has only run 6 times, winning three times as a 2 year old at this trip, he ran a promising race on his reappearance at this track, and with the able mister Hughes in the saddle he offers some value.

 

4.15 Dubai Media looks to have a good mark for her handicap debut, she ran better than the form figure suggests last time as she found plenty of trouble in running, if that can be avoided she should run a big race.

 

Newmarket

 

2.15 Before going to Germany, St Moritz won a 7furlong handicap very easily, despite being hampered and running very green, hopefully he will make into a useful horse and that can start by winning here.

 

2.45 Next Move won his only start as a 2 year old then contested a very hot race here at Newmarket finishing behind coordinated cut, many of Suroors come on for the run and this unexposed type is good value.

 

3.25 Royal diamond was in tremendous form last year, he was well beaten on his reappearance but that was on ground he doesnt like, his best form is on this ground, his trainer and jockey are in good form and lets hope the horse gets back to good form too.

 

At Thirsk I fancy Captain Dunne to win in the 5.00 but is a very short price, in the last there, I am dutching Absa Lutte and Bertoliver.

 

Fancy a few tonight but will post them later, good luck today all, looks another difficult betting day.

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

Mate just text me on way to Newbury looking for some tips.........

I have gone-

 

1:25- Banana Republic- e/w

2:00- Sabotage

2:30- Ingleby Spirit e/w

3:05- Paco Boy, but meh

3:40- Beaver Patrol (just for the name)

[chrisobee]

Hehe classic write up Chris O, although blaming me for your failing tips is a bit harsh :-)

 

 

Frankie

 

Haha, well Frankie Mick Channon once famously said having being accused by Lawrie Mac of "being a disgrace to your profession "

 

"Boss, horse racing is my profession, football just a hobby ! "

 

So it is that writing is to me ( believe or not ) both a passion and a profession and horse racing just a hobby so if tips lose so be it though if in so doing they give me an excuse to rib someone all the better ! But never harsh

Have a good day, I'm going to post a few cracking bets later, worth looking out for !!!

That said my main tip today is for Chelsea to beat Pompey by at least 2 goals, for there to be over 2.5 goals in the match and over 10.5 corners ( 68% of Chelsea's games have gone Over 10.5 Corners this season, 73% of Portsmouth's games have gone Over 10.5 Corners this season ). Stato move over

 

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Very busy day so mainly just selections, analysis on a few. Going to be small stakes anyway unless something really leaps out that hasn't already done so especially after a smashing day yesterday.

 

Bangor 1.50 Twentynineblack currently around evens. Very short but should win, maybe one for doubles/trebles.

 

Thirsk 2.05 Yarhooh - currently around 6/4 Also short price, might pair it with Twentynineblack

 

2.30 - Newbury - Right Step - e/w. @ 8/1 (General)The well bred, improving Verdant has Group Class pretensions so a mark of 89 won't stop him here if he is. However Right Step is a backable e/w price against him. The selection returned with a good effort against Wigmore Hall at Newmarket in his first race over ten furlongs and that could turn out to be strong handicap form. He is open to plenty of improvement after just four races and has obviously inherited a fair bit of stamina from his Dam's side. Top of the ground suits and there have been tentative signs of better things to come from the yard recently.

 

Newmarket 2.45 Beneath @ 11/2

 

3.40 - Newbury: Desert Phantom - e/w. @ 10/1 (William Hill)There won't be hanging about in this race and one of the most interesting in the race is Desert Phantom, as one of the least exposed in this field. He won his first three races but was then off for just over a year after finishing 5/7 in a Group One in France. He returned this season with a creditable effort over five furlongs at this track where he was forced to race wide of the pack. He will benefit from that outing and the step back up to six furlongs will suit. The yard are in very good form and the booking of Richard Hughes takes the eye.

 

4.15 - Newbury - Dubai Media - e/w. @ 11/1 (General) Plume had Guineas aspirations before scoping dirty so a mark of 80 would be very lenient if she realised that potential. However Dubai Media has an Irish 1000 Guineas entry and gets in here off a mark of 74. He was beaten four and half lengths by Eldalil on his return over seven furlongs at Newmarket but he travelled very well into the latter stages until he ran into a bit of traffic. He ran on well once he got racing room and he could fare much better today. The booking of William Buick, who has a profitable 16 % strike rate for the yard, takes the eye.

 

5.10 - Newmarket - Mac's Power - @ 7/1 (General) Only been seen on turf once in his 13 races but his Dam has produced horses who have won on both artificial surfaces and turf and there seems no reason why Mac's power shouldn't be multi-purpose as well. He has raced in better company than this on the A/W and returned from a six month break over a mile at Kempton earlier this month. He wasn't far behind the principals at the end after not being given a hard time and he should come on for that outing. He won easily from today's mark last September and the drop back to seven furlongs shouldn't be a problem.

 

5.30 - Thirsk - Rasaman - @ 5/1 (General)

 

7.55 - Uttoxeter - Ambrose Princess e/w. @10/1 (General)

[frankie]

Nice stats on the game Chris, I am tempted to do a bet , but so little value on anything Chelsea orientated, Pompey are currently 21/1 on Betfair to win the game !!! the only bet I can see with a little value is the Pompey +2.5 goals to lose is 2.42 on Betfair..

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Very busy day so mainly just selections, analysis on a few. Going to be small stakes anyway unless something really leaps out that hasn't already done so especially after a smashing day yesterday.

 

Bangor 1.50 Twentynineblack currently around evens. Very short but should win, maybe one for doubles/trebles.

 

Thirsk 2.05 Yarhooh - currently around 6/4 Also short price, might pair it with Twentynineblack

 

2.30 - Newbury - Right Step - e/w. @ 8/1 (General)The well bred, improving Verdant has Group Class pretensions so a mark of 89 won't stop him here if he is. However Right Step is a backable e/w price against him. The selection returned with a good effort against Wigmore Hall at Newmarket in his first race over ten furlongs and that could turn out to be strong handicap form. He is open to plenty of improvement after just four races and has obviously inherited a fair bit of stamina from his Dam's side. Top of the ground suits and there have been tentative signs of better things to come from the yard recently.

 

Newmarket 2.45 Beneath @ 11/2

 

3.40 - Newbury: Desert Phantom - e/w. @ 10/1 (William Hill)There won't be hanging about in this race and one of the most interesting in the race is Desert Phantom, as one of the least exposed in this field. He won his first three races but was then off for just over a year after finishing 5/7 in a Group One in France. He returned this season with a creditable effort over five furlongs at this track where he was forced to race wide of the pack. He will benefit from that outing and the step back up to six furlongs will suit. The yard are in very good form and the booking of Richard Hughes takes the eye.

 

4.15 - Newbury - Dubai Media - e/w. @ 11/1 (General) Plume had Guineas aspirations before scoping dirty so a mark of 80 would be very lenient if she realised that potential. However Dubai Media has an Irish 1000 Guineas entry and gets in here off a mark of 74. He was beaten four and half lengths by Eldalil on his return over seven furlongs at Newmarket but he travelled very well into the latter stages until he ran into a bit of traffic. He ran on well once he got racing room and he could fare much better today. The booking of William Buick, who has a profitable 16 % strike rate for the yard, takes the eye.

 

5.10 - Newmarket - Mac's Power - @ 7/1 (General) Only been seen on turf once in his 13 races but his Dam has produced horses who have won on both artificial surfaces and turf and there seems no reason why Mac's power shouldn't be multi-purpose as well. He has raced in better company than this on the A/W and returned from a six month break over a mile at Kempton earlier this month. He wasn't far behind the principals at the end after not being given a hard time and he should come on for that outing. He won easily from today's mark last September and the drop back to seven furlongs shouldn't be a problem.

 

5.30 - Thirsk - Rasaman - @ 5/1 (General)

 

7.55 - Uttoxeter - Ambrose Princess e/w. @10/1 (General)

 

Oh bugger Chris, we've shared a couple of selections here again mate...better lay them :-)

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Hope you were all on my tip for ziggy

 

Thanks, that and several of my own = a great day

[chrisobee]

Oh bugger Chris, we've shared a couple of selections here again mate...better lay them :-)

 

Frankie

 

Oh flip, I didn't even notice Frankie. Never mind, Ive got lots of money to lose after yesterday !!

 

 

Chris

 

Think I'm too excited at the prospect of Poopy being hammered TBH

[chrisobee]

Great call on Hanoverian Baron and Manifest Chris O, bloody good job you didnt follow me....terrible

 

Frankie

 

Ok, ok... whose hijacked ChrisO's account???

 

Thought I was having a good day but you're on fire mate!

 

Oi, oi what was my final score !?

As it turned out with all bets including Ziggy Lee:

 

14:10 York Hanoverian Baron Won

14:40 York Manifest Won

14:55 Newb Principal Role Won

15:45 York Diman Waters Lost

16:10 Newm Meeznah Won

16:35 Newb Huff And Puff Lost

16:35 Newb Red Courtier Lost

16:45 Newm Back Ramona Chase Lost

17:20 Newm Ziggy Lee Won

18:00 Aint Victor Daly Won

20:25 Newc Kiwi Bay Lost

 

22 point profit overall

Edited 15 May, 2010 by chrisobee

[chrisobee]

Newbury

 

1.25 Banana Republic was a tune written by the Boomtown Rats,

 

Frankie

 

Indeed it was and now I'm humming the tune may as well back the horse !!

[chrisobee]

Nice stats on the game Chris, I am tempted to do a bet , but so little value on anything Chelsea orientated, Pompey are currently 21/1 on Betfair to win the game !!! the only bet I can see with a little value is the Pompey +2.5 goals to lose is 2.42 on Betfair..

 

Frankie

 

I agree Frankie and that's why I have tripled up though as long as Pompey lose I don't really care !

IF Pompey win I'll never have another bet again

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

In the meantime though had a very strong word for Verdant in the 2.30 at Newbury. Having already backed Right Step ew at a decent price and given that even at 5/6 Paco Boy looks to be very good value ( not sure if I have ever said that about an odds on shot?) with Zacinto surely the only danger going to double up on the 2.

That is definitely my lot.

 

Good luck all, enjoy the racing and footie (and boxing, 20/20 WC final, Grand Prix et al!)

 

Chris

[frankie]

Bloody hell, a terrible day as horses go...Djing this evening so my selections for this evening for what they are worth are:

 

Newbury 5.25 Lean Machine

 

Doncaster

 

6.00 Haljaferia

 

7.35 Amenable

 

8.10 Anne of Kiev

 

Uttoxeter

 

5.50 Red not blue

 

6.20 Tucumcari

 

7.25 Red Jester

 

7.55 Chocolat

 

Cheers all and have a good Saturday night, whatever you may be doing

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Still tired after "celebrating" Pompey losing and then staying up until I'm not sure when to watch the Amir Khan fight but well worth it. Happy days!

Just a few for today:

 

2.30 - Market Rasen - Prize Fighter - e/w @ 16/1 (General)

Both Prize Fighter and his stable have not seen the winners enclosure since his last victory in June 2007. Add to that his dismal display at Fakenham last time out and he has to go down as a very speculative selection. However prior to that disappointment he had put in two encouraging efforts at Doncaster and it's not difficult to see him going well here if he gets a decent pace. He is a good traveller who doesn't always find as much as he promises off the bridle but, from a career low mark of 95 on ground he handles, he is a tempting proposition at around 16/1. His second in January in a big field was his best effort in a very long while and, although he didn't repeat it next time out, he did travel well into the latter stages and may have found the 20 furlongs in soft ground a bit too far. Back down in trip today he is up to giving this standard of opposition a race if he fancies it.

 

3.10 - Ripon - Elusive Sue @100/30 (General)

Not a bad race of it's type and one in which Elusive Sue looks sure to go well. She produced a bit of a mixed bag as a Juvenile but she did wind up the campaign with a cosy win in a Haydock Maiden. That form was nothing special but she did have the field well strung out and bettered that performance on her reappearance over seven furlongs at Beverley last month, despite the test seemingly stretching her stamina. She was less than two lengths behind Hacienda, who subsequently ran well in a Group Three in Ireland, and was a short head in front of Bonfire Night, who ran well in a much better handicap, albeit up in trip, at Newbury yesterday. Elusive Sue has been raised two pounds today but the drop back to six furlongs could see her progress past most of this opposition.

 

3.30 - Market Rasen - Our Jim @ 7/1 (Stan James)

A competitive handicap Chase and the one that appeals most is Our Jim. He progressed in each of his first three completed Chases and returned from a ten month absence to run two good races in March. They were over 20/21 furlongs but his victory at Wetherby last season came over 25 furlongs and he has winning form over hurdles at 26 furlongs, so the step back up in trip today should suit. He is relatively lightly raced for an eight year old and there is scope for further progression over the bigger obstacles. A winner over hurdles on his only previous visit to this track, he represents a powerful in form yard who have a 28% strike rate with their Chasers at this course.

 

3.50 - Stratford - Aqualung - e/w @ 14/1 (General)

 

4.10 - Ripon - Managua - @11/4 (General)

 

Otherwise, come on England, bash the Aussies in the 20/20

 

Have a good day all.

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

Bloody hell, a terrible day as horses go...Djing this evening so my selections for this evening for what they are worth are:

 

Newbury 5.25 Lean Machine

 

Doncaster

 

6.00 Haljaferia

 

7.35 Amenable

 

8.10 Anne of Kiev

 

Uttoxeter

 

5.50 Red not blue

 

6.20 Tucumcari

 

7.25 Red Jester

 

7.55 Chocolat

 

Cheers all and have a good Saturday night, whatever you may be doing

 

Frankie

 

Well Frankie i did get a decent winner in Ambrose Princess at 7/1 at Uttoxeter plus though not a great price but bigger than expected on BF I did decide Twentynineblack was a good thing and then with Verdant losing decided as I might as well plough back my winnings on Paco Boy whilst waiting for Pompey to lose

Going ew on Dubia Media ensured I actually ended up just in profit even with the footie bet going astray ( which is why I rarely bet on football !).

At least RED NOT BLUE was a nice and apt winner at 6/1 so maybe there is something in this name thing !

Oh yes the 2.30 at Newbury didn't seem to pan out for Right Step and he looks one to keep on the right side of after doing well to finish fifth.

 

Take care,

 

Chris

Edited 16 May, 2010 by chrisobee
add mention for Right Step :)

[frankie]

Cheers Chris..

 

Quiet day today, like you I fancy Elusive sue

 

I have also gone for.

 

3.40 Tiger Reigns

 

4.10 French Applause

 

4.40 One More Tico

 

5.10 Atlantic Beach

 

Doing Nicky Nutjob and Farmer Frank at Market Rasen

 

and fancy Lady Sorcerer (Nap) in the 3.20 Stratford

 

Take care

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Nothing strong at a decent price thus far, could be a day to rest up and enjoy the sun but...

 

Newt Abbot 2.20 Oedipe : Seems sure to win soon enough, might be today with AP on board but only 11/8 best price.

Wolv 2.40 Nellie Ellis : Again very short at around 6/4 but this is a poor race and Nellie Ellis is likely to continue to progress and take this. Sacrosanctus is another progressive horse and 10/1 is very tempting.

 

Maybe win double, no idea yet !

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

A small win double it is just for the fun of it, not going to break the bank. Had a very good word for Haatheq in the 6.00 at Leicester at around 11/4. But boy this is a tough looking race and both Avenuesandalleyways and State Gathering have been well supported this morning. "OddsnSods" from myoddschecker is always worth a read and at Newton Abbot looks like a fair bit of money going on Humbel Ben in the 3.20 though not on the scale of last weeks massive "gamble".

Otherwise the following is a good read if anyone else appears here sometime soon !

 

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/4808/oh-boy-hes-good/

[Doctoroncall]

Sky rider 8:10 Windsor

[frankie]

For the first time in weeks, i left most of this afternoons racing alone, had a few quid on Humbel Ben this morning and did Woolston Ferry, but other than that, left it all alone....Sacrosanctus was a great call mate, I hope you did it, plus Haatheq scooted home, I fancy a few tonight.

 

6.30 It's not often you get a Hannon horse as an outsider in a field of four, and its for that reason I am throwing a few pound at Rossetti, who will be fit and hopefully ready to win.

 

7.00 Landucci has the best looking figures on paper running consistently well, his last run, beaten just a neck by the reliable Fremen looks decent form, keep a look out for Edderys Kenswick if there is money for it.

 

7.30 Cecils runner has to be feared, but I like the look of Buddy Holly, he won just 3 days ago and comes out very quickly for this, he won easily last time out and looks the type to be progressing.

 

8.30 Bondage...thats all i'm saying...ran pretty well on handicap debut, stable going well and could improve to take this.

 

Windsor

 

7.40

 

Ignatieff is very fast winning twice at this distance last year, this track should suit and he should give a good account of himself.

 

8.40 Sequillo should have the class to win this, he was very consistent last year and has won on this course, stable is in great form.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

For the first time in weeks, i left most of this afternoons racing alone, had a few quid on Humbel Ben this morning and did Woolston Ferry, but other than that, left it all alone....Sacrosanctus was a great call mate, I hope you did it, plus Haatheq scooted home, I fancy a few tonight.

 

6.30 It's not often you get a Hannon horse as an outsider in a field of four, and its for that reason I am throwing a few pound at Rossetti, who will be fit and hopefully ready to win.

 

7.00 Landucci has the best looking figures on paper running consistently well, his last run, beaten just a neck by the reliable Fremen looks decent form, keep a look out for Edderys Kenswick if there is money for it.

 

7.30 Cecils runner has to be feared, but I like the look of Buddy Holly, he won just 3 days ago and comes out very quickly for this, he won easily last time out and looks the type to be progressing.

 

8.30 Bondage...thats all i'm saying...ran pretty well on handicap debut, stable going well and could improve to take this.

 

Windsor

 

7.40

 

Ignatieff is very fast winning twice at this distance last year, this track should suit and he should give a good account of himself.

 

8.40 Sequillo should have the class to win this, he was very consistent last year and has won on this course, stable is in great form.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

I was lucky today Frankie ! Oedipe just snuck home in the 2.20 at Newton Abbot so with the money from that carrying over to Nellie Ellis I did have a few quid on Sacrosantus as a bit of a saver and glad I did!

Then with Haatheeq winning I decided to back Russian Rock in the Windsor 7.40 which was a Hugh Taylor tip and of course it won at 15/2 with Ignatieff a very good 2nd at 8/1. So apologies for that, the worse type of "after tip" and just to rub it in I couldn't resist Heavenly Dawn in the 8.10 and thereby opposing Doctoroncall and Skyrider and that won too !!! It was so quiet on here though I didn't think anyone was going to read/post here ( no Saintkip who only backs Taylor's losers anyway !!) so didn't bother after my 1.50pm post. Well that is my excuse and I'm sticking to it

I did back a couple of duffers, Motrice at Wolverhampton ( another Hugh Taylor tip) and Indian Narjes at Windsor but still a good day.

On the other hand you could hardly have been more unlucky if you'd tried! Humbel Ben ran well to finish 2nd at 6/1, Ignatieff I have already mentioned, Kenswick 2nd at 17/2 and Buddy Holly 3rd. Must admit Woolston Ferry is a horse I avoid like the plague as it keeps getting mentions on here but besides being 5/20 on the AW I'm not sure of any other reason so guess it's in the name or did it use to be a Micky Channon horse ?

Anyway there is always tomorrow and in the long run it's surely better to be good than lucky ( except in poker !).

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

[chrisobee]

 

8.30 Bondage...thats all i'm saying...ran pretty well on handicap debut, stable going well and could improve to take this.

 

 

Frankie

 

TBH "silence" speaks louder than a million words

[chrisobee]

Ruby Tuesday today with the 2 catching my eye thus far :

 

Nottingam

 

3.30 Rare Ruby @ 4/1 : Tricky race with the front 4 in the market all around a similar price. Eijaaz with Seb Sanders on board looks likely to be there or thereabouts and may even go off as favourite despite never having raced over 2 miles before. Not a race to get heavily involved in but just have an inkling for Rare Ruby though going to hold fire on this one until I see how the market shapes.

 

Towcester

 

8.40 Ruby Crown : Only price at present is 8/5 on BF. This horse finished 2nd to the gamble of last week Jeu De Roseau and unless something similarly sinister lies in wait here should take this even though carrying top weight.

 

Anything else I'll aim to post later !

Good luck.

 

Chris

Edited 18 May, 2010 by chrisobee
typo..

[chrisobee]

Brighton

 

4.20: This looks to be possibly the most interesting race of a pretty poor day based on the morning market. Decency was one from the same source as Haatheq though the other that caught my eye was the Micky Channon horse Dutiful at a much bigger price, around 10/1. One I really didn't consider too much was Wonga Coup, summed up very nicely and briefly by Timeform I thought thus :

 

" Hasnt shown enough in 4 starts to warrant any interest as yet, slim hopes pinned on this marked drop down in trip. "

 

Well connections seem to have other ideas as it has been backed in from as big as 20/1 in places to as short as 7/2 though 11/2 still with a few firms. So maybe the big clue, again, is in the name but in the absence of anything else to go on I'll swerve this one and maybe now Decency too.

[frankie]

I was lucky today Frankie ! Oedipe just snuck home in the 2.20 at Newton Abbot so with the money from that carrying over to Nellie Ellis I did have a few quid on Sacrosantus as a bit of a saver and glad I did!

Then with Haatheeq winning I decided to back Russian Rock in the Windsor 7.40 which was a Hugh Taylor tip and of course it won at 15/2 with Ignatieff a very good 2nd at 8/1. So apologies for that, the worse type of "after tip" and just to rub it in I couldn't resist Heavenly Dawn in the 8.10 and thereby opposing Doctoroncall and Skyrider and that won too !!! It was so quiet on here though I didn't think anyone was going to read/post here ( no Saintkip who only backs Taylor's losers anyway !!) so didn't bother after my 1.50pm post. Well that is my excuse and I'm sticking to it

I did back a couple of duffers, Motrice at Wolverhampton ( another Hugh Taylor tip) and Indian Narjes at Windsor but still a good day.

On the other hand you could hardly have been more unlucky if you'd tried! Humbel Ben ran well to finish 2nd at 6/1, Ignatieff I have already mentioned, Kenswick 2nd at 17/2 and Buddy Holly 3rd. Must admit Woolston Ferry is a horse I avoid like the plague as it keeps getting mentions on here but besides being 5/20 on the AW I'm not sure of any other reason so guess it's in the name or did it use to be a Micky Channon horse ?

Anyway there is always tomorrow and in the long run it's surely better to be good than lucky ( except in poker !).

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

 

Lucky is what i'm not at the moment mate, my Betfair account is going down faster than a needy crack whore. So todays card is the one to turn things around then!!!!

 

Nottingham.

 

I just have to have a little double on Prescotts handicap debutants in the first and last race, he is a master at getting them on a low mark and running up a string of wins, bith have similar profiles, although Lutine Bell in the first, may be better over further.

 

3.30

 

Unfortunately I am opposing Chris's selection (which might be a good thing for him) and going with the unexposed Straight Laced, he showed some promise on his handicap debut and it is interesting that W Knight throws him into a race at such a longer distance, the trainer has been going well, especially a few weeks back and hopefully this will be another winner for him.

 

4.00 Hudoo is entered in the Oaks, so must run well / win here to justify that entry, he won on his only start last year, but at this longer trip should show more improvement.

 

Brighton.

 

2.20 With Channon's stable in good form I have to back Lucky Leigh (one last time) he has the ability to win a little race like this.

 

4.50 The Dial House interests me, his only win was over this course, his trainer is in good form and if the horse can return to anything like he is capable then he could easily win this.

 

Musselburgh

 

2.10 Fremen looks the obvious choice but I am going to oppose him with Takween, he has shown decent form in Ireland, and although he has shown little over hurdles for his current trainer this return to the flat may bring a sparkle back in his step.

 

2.40 Dies Solis is a well bred animal, he showed some ability last year but should improve at 3, if running to his potential he should have these for breakfast.

 

As for the rest, i've had a few quid on Wicked wilma in the 4.40 and had a little nod and a wink for Paddy Partridge in the 5.10

 

I really hope my account is looking healthier come 5.20 or I may have to ask for a sub Chris.

 

Frankie

[chrisobee]

Haha, you have more chance of all your tips winning than getting a sub Frankie !! Anything could win the 3.30 at Nottingham so my selection is very tentative. Otherwise in a bit more detail several I think could be worth a little nibble at decent prices.

 

4.00 - Nottingham - Ice Diva - e/w. @ 10/1 (General)

Very keen early on at Yarmouth last time out she did well to run all the way to the line, only just failing to get up. That was her first run over ten furlongs and, as her breeding suggests, she was well suited by it. She didn't look the easiest of rides but it was only her fifth race and she still doesn't look the finished article. She has plenty of scope for further physical development and, as well as being well bred, she should improve with age/experience. The yard are in good form and they have a 24% strike rate with today's jockey this season.

 

4.40 - Musselburgh: Princess Charlmane - @ 20/1 (General)/Angelofthenorth - @28/1 (General)

A wide open sprint handicap with most of the field priced about right. However at big prices it may be worth having a small interest in stablemates Princess Charlmane and Angelofthenorth. Prince Charlmane dropped away tamely in a Seller at Redcar on his reappearance but he faced a stiff task at the weights and he may have needed his first race in five months. He is exposed, and doesn't win that often, but both his career victories have come over this C/D and he invariably runs his race here. He is two pounds below his last winning mark and he represents a small yard who have sent out two winners on turf from eleven entries this season. Angelofthenorth makes her seasonal debut and could need this but, if she is fit and ready, she is not one to dismiss out of hand. Two of her four career victories have come over this C/D. She is not as well handicapped as her stablemate but she is often noted finishing well when things fall right for her. It could be a similar story here if she doesn't get outpaced.

 

7.30 - Carlisle - High Office - @ 4/1 (General)

Most of these are well exposed but High Office has only had seven starts and he could be capable of improving past these. He was a winner over nine furlongs at Musselburgh on his return where he stayed on all the way to the line. He went close over Beverley's stiff ten furlongs last season and the return to a similarly stiff track should suit. He is bred to improve this season and the likelihood of a decent pace is in his favour. The yard hasn't been finding as many winners this month but it would be wide of the mark to say they are out of form. They have a profitable 18% strike rate at this track.

 

8.00 - Carlisle - My Gacho - @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes and Coral)

 

8.30 - Carlisle - Lucky Dan e/w @ 12/1 (General)

Lucky Dan caught the eye again over five furlongs at Beverley last time out and in doing so strongly suggested that he needed to be stepped back up to six furlongs. His last win came over a stiff six furlongs from a ten pound lower mark and he has the profile of a sprinter still slowly improving. Her doesn't have the best of draws but he is likely to be dropped in for late gains. Although one win from 24 outings doesn't inspire confidence for win purposes he does have the ability to win this grade. Although the yard have not had a turf winner from 23 entries this season their horses have been running well at big prices recently.

 

Go Frankie, go !!

 

Chris

Edited 18 May, 2010 by chrisobee
typo

[saint_stevo]

Al Dafa- 5pm Notts

 

Blue Spinnaker- 7.30 Carlisle

[frankie]

Al Dafa- 5pm Notts

 

Blue Spinnaker- 7.30 Carlisle

 

First one in, nice call mate.

 

Frankie

[frankie]

Lucky is what i'm not at the moment mate, my Betfair account is going down faster than a needy crack whore. So todays card is the one to turn things around then!!!!

 

Nottingham.

 

I just have to have a little double on Prescotts handicap debutants in the first and last race, he is a master at getting them on a low mark and running up a string of wins, bith have similar profiles, although Lutine Bell in the first, may be better over further. (and indeed he ran on well and will be one to watch next time out)

 

3.30

 

Unfortunately I am opposing Chris's selection (which might be a good thing for him) and going with the unexposed Straight Laced, he showed some promise on his handicap debut and it is interesting that W Knight throws him into a race at such a longer distance, the trainer has been going well, especially a few weeks back and hopefully this will be another winner for him. (straight Laced was well backed but Chris' won nicely with Straight Laced nowhere to be seen)

 

4.00 Hudoo is entered in the Oaks, so must run well / win here to justify that entry, he won on his only start last year, but at this longer trip should show more improvement. (Well backed ran a stinker and again Chris has the winner!!!!!)

 

Brighton.

 

2.20 With Channon's stable in good form I have to back Lucky Leigh (one last time) he has the ability to win a little race like this. (Well backed ran awfully, not backing ever again)

 

4.50 The Dial House interests me, his only win was over this course, his trainer is in good form and if the horse can return to anything like he is capable then he could easily win this. (Again very well backed and ran nicely in second place but could have done with a couple of cracks of the whip)

 

Musselburgh

 

2.10 Fremen looks the obvious choice but I am going to oppose him with Takween, he has shown decent form in Ireland, and although he has shown little over hurdles for his current trainer this return to the flat may bring a sparkle back in his step. (Fremen won)

 

2.40 Dies Solis is a well bred animal, he showed some ability last year but should improve at 3, if running to his potential he should have these for breakfast. (Very well backed, faded pretty badly after showing up for some way)

 

As for the rest, i've had a few quid on Wicked wilma in the 4.40 and had a little nod and a wink for Paddy Partridge in the 5.10 (Both just rubbish)

 

I really hope my account is looking healthier come 5.20 or I may have to ask for a sub Chris.

 

Frankie

 

What a frustrating day, as you'll see above (I have edited my quotes from earlier, many of my horses were well backed, and ran ok but no winners...ahhhhhhh.

 

Frankie

[saint_stevo]

First one in, nice call mate.

 

Frankie

 

and a third in the second.

 

not too bad

[Thedelldays]

Frankie, do you have a gambling problem..?

[frankie]

Frankie, do you have a gambling problem..?

 

My only problem is not enough money to gamble with mate :-)

 

gambling is a hobby mate, just like to win a bit from time to time if I can. I am a small time punter mate, 2-3 pound wins mainly occasionally i'll bet 5-10 and on very special occasions 20

 

Football bets are my biggest earner, bet with my brother on a saturday, we pick two selecyions each and do a £20.00 acca, we were over £2000 up last season, paid for a fair few away games and the Johnstons Cup Final.

 

Take care

 

Frankie

[Thedelldays]

haha..was have a giggle...

 

I usually do a football accy most weeks in the season..I tend to find one of the certs I put in infact, let me down...bastards

[frankie]

haha..was have a giggle...

 

I usually do a football accy most weeks in the season..I tend to find one of the certs I put in infact, let me down...bastards

 

I have a mate that does that, normally chucks in a 1/3 to make the money up and it lets him down no end of times....funny old game gambling

 

Frankie

[notnowcato]

My little boy cut is first tooth today, so form book out the window...

 

Ling 4.45 Ganache

Sedg 6.30 Takaatuf

Worc 7.50 Pearly Star

 

All E/W and an E/W treble for good measure and a bit of fun.

 

Giddy Up!!

[chrisobee]

[quote=frankie;

 

3.30

 

Unfortunately I am opposing Chris's selection (which might be a good thing for him) and going with the unexposed Straight Laced, he showed some promise on his handicap debut and it is interesting that W Knight throws him into a race at such a longer distance, the trainer has been going well, especially a few weeks back and hopefully this will be another winner for him. (straight Laced was well backed but Chris' won nicely with Straight Laced nowhere to be seen)

 

4.00 Hudoo is entered in the Oaks, so must run well / win here to justify that entry, he won on his only start last year, but at this longer trip should show more improvement. (Well backed ran a stinker and again Chris has the winner!!!!!)

 

 

What a frustrating day, as you'll see above (I have edited my quotes from earlier, many of my horses were well backed, and ran ok but no winners...ahhhhhhh.

 

Frankie

 

Now you are just trying to make me feel guilty but where there is no sense but lots of nonsense there is no feeling

[chrisobee]

My only problem is not enough money to gamble with mate :-)

 

gambling is a hobby mate, just like to win a bit from time to time if I can. I am a small time punter mate, 2-3 pound wins mainly occasionally i'll bet 5-10 and on very special occasions 20

 

Football bets are my biggest earner, bet with my brother on a saturday, we pick two selecyions each and do a £20.00 acca, we were over £2000 up last season, paid for a fair few away games and the Johnstons Cup Final.

 

Take care

 

Frankie

 

That's exactly the way to play it unless you really are a pro punter who travels all over and has a very good eye for a horse in the parade ring. I did know someone a few years ago called Alan Potts, not only a great judge of horse but a nice, funny guy too. Wrote a super book "Against the Crowd" which was his forte, backing overpriced horses that others overlooked.

Of course winners are nice but you have to enjoy it too otherwise I'd say just leave it alone !

[chrisobee]

Several of these are pretty short but since the same "source" gave me the heads up for Red Ruby and Ruby Crown I will post them. Really am going to go with the general mood today and keep stakes low and play around with doubles and trebles. Due a bad day.

 

 

3.10 - Goodwood - Soul Station @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) Soul Station improved markedly to win comfortably over a mile at Salisbury on his second start last season and stepped up to ten furlongs for his return at Sandown last month. His 4/14, beaten just under three lengths, wasn't a bad effort considering he had to race wide for most of the way from a poor draw and was keener than ideal early on. He stayed on in determined fashion and may have finished closer but for being denied a bit of room in the latter stages. A strict line through Zahoo and Contradanse leaves him with a bit to find with Our Boy Barrington on today's terms but the selection is likely to improve again and has a better draw today. The yard have a profitable 28% strike rate this month and they have a 17% strike rate at this track in recent seasons. They send just the one to the races today and the jockey turns up for just the one booked ride.

 

3.35 - Lingfield - Lunar River -e/w. @ 16/1 (Victor Chandler) Love In The Park is tempting given her track record but there wouldn't have been much between her and Lunar River over this C/D last July if the latter had a clearer run in the latter stages. Lunar River is ten pounds better off at the weights today and there was enough in his reappearance at Wolverhampton last month to suggest he resumed in good heart. He has since disappointed at Kempton but he seemed to be doing a bit too much early on there and it may pay to forgive him that run. He is down to a mark of 59 and all his four career victories have come from higher in the handicap. The main concern is the withdrawal of prominent racers Celtic Commitment and Welsh Anthem which could take some of the pace out of the race. Hopefully Dancing Jest and Mons Calpe will set the generous gallop Lunar River needs to be seen at his best.

 

3.45 Goodwood - Rewilding @ 11/10 ( General)

 

4.20 Goodwood Nimue: @ around 5/4 ( General)

 

4.30 Kelso Balnagore @ around 7/2 Worth opposing the odds on favourite in Waldvogel I think, I'm opting for the classy looking Balnagore. Solis @9/1 caught my eye but now racing under a penalty after winning at Perth last week.

 

4.45 Lingfield Orchard Supreme @ 2/1 NAP - Going to give Sir Cato a helping hand by napping it and also stating Ganache just can't be a serious bet surely, lump on it

 

4.55 - Goodwood - Colonel Flay - e/w. @ 10/1 (General) Colonel Flay has produced a consistent level of form over the past two years and rarely seems to run a bad race. He has only been seen over two miles once (didn't run badly) so he has yet to prove conclusively he stays the trip but plenty of his efforts since over 14 furlongs have suggested he will. He is a strong traveller who is best on good ground or faster. He is back down to his last winning mark and his record first time out in all four seasons he has raced suggests he will run a big race today. There aren't many natural front runners in the race and it could mean the favourite, Penang Princess, making her own running and that could leave her vulnerable.

 

 

5.20 - Lingfield - Kiss A Prince - e/w. @ 10/1 (888 Sport) There was plenty to like about the return of Kiss A Prince at Sandown last month. He was 5/15, beaten five lengths, but he challenged out wide from a long way back and wasn't given a hard time when it was clear he wasn't going to make the frame. He returns to the A/W on a three pound higher mark but he was progressive on this surface last season and was a C/D winner from five pound lower last August. He is likely to come on for that initial outing and the booking of Hayley Turner, who has a 19% strike rate for the yard on the A/W yielding a £42 l.s.p, takes the eye. There are enough prominent early racers to make this a truly run race and that will suit a horse who likes to come from off a generous gallop.

 

6.20 Worcester Lord Landen @ around 6/5

 

Good luck all !

 

 

 

 

Chris

Edited 19 May, 2010 by chrisobee
Add tips/analysis

[notnowcato]

Wedding March in the 2.35 at Gooders is an absolute gimme. 9/4 is way overpriced.

 

Giddy up!!

[chrisobee]

Wedding March in the 2.35 at Gooders is an absolute gimme. 9/4 is way overpriced.

 

Giddy up!!

 

Could be a very good shout, I believe Godolphin are keen on this filly who runs for them for the 1st time. Two very good runs last year. I'm guessing only but with Thaahira entered in the Ribblesdale that might explain why she is around the same price ?

[chrisobee]

From "oddsnsods":

 

Best backed horses so far today:

 

Aupcharlie Sligo 20.10 20/1 into 11/4

Hypnotized Goodwood 15.10 4/1 into 5/2

Missoula Goodwood 16.55 33/1 into 14/1

[saint_stevo]

From "oddsnsods":

 

Best backed horses so far today:

 

Aupcharlie Sligo 20.10 20/1 into 11/4

Hypnotized Goodwood 15.10 4/1 into 5/2

Missoula Goodwood 16.55 33/1 into 14/1

 

 

Quite a drop..........

[notnowcato]

Could be a very good shout, I believe Godolphin are keen on this filly who runs for them for the 1st time. Two very good runs last year. I'm guessing only but with Thaahira entered in the Ribblesdale that might explain why she is around the same price ?

 

Wedding ran an absolute stinker.

[saint_stevo]

yeah thanks for that Cato