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4 decent winners yesterday, how many did I post on here ? None of course !

So I'm reluctant to post my best bet on here but trying to lay the jinx:

 

Perth 4.05 Alainmaar NAP : Been a frustrating horse to follow until recently not having raced but finally got on course last summer and won nicely at Newmarket back in October. Likely to have bags of scope for improvement and very good pedigree ( the sire won a Breeders Cup). Is definitely the one to beat !

 

Otherwise :

 

Catterick 2.35 Magic Omen : A worthy favourite, no great price at around 11/8 but is going to be tough to beat.

Perth 3.20 Barcadero: Only 4 runners but a very trappy race. However, at 4/1 the selection looks decent value, the trainer ( Gordon Elliott) tends to do well here.

Perth 5.05 : Unlikely to be having a bet here but if I had to I'd go with Caulkin( or maybe not!) who has shown ability but not sure about his jumping.

Kempton 8.20 : Looks to be between the top 2 in the market, Hypnotised and Bohemian Melody. Slight preference for Bohemian Melody who won over 7f last month and trainer in decent form. Probably a race to avoid from the betting angle though.

Kempton 9.20 Riflessione : Won at Wolverhampton last month and a horse I've always liked. Up against another recent winner in Replicator and this is a tough race so I've just had a small ew bet at Skybet at 13/2 which looks good value.

 

Good luck all !

Edited by chrisobee
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A few more mentions :

 

Perth 14:45 - Possol 10/11 Should win but short enough.

Catterick 15:10 - Firetrap 6/1 : Should improve for recent outing, 6/1 looks a fair price. Elegant Dancer, the likely favourite, has not run for nearly a year so likely to need this outing.

16.05 - Epsom – Cill Rialaig 8/1 : Had a good word for this but not going to abandon my NAP !

Perth 16:30 - Nedzer's Return 4/1 : Relatively unexposed and trainer does well here, one to consider. Brave Rebellion runs in blinkers for the 1st time, probably one to look out for but 14/1 looks a fair price for a horse that won last time out albeit this race more competitive.

Perth 17.05 - Ravensbill 8/1 : With doubts about Caulkin ( as above) Ravensbill is by no means out of it having ran well under restraint at Ayr lto when finishing 4th. Could well be open to improvement.

Perth 17.40 - Deep Squeeze 4/1 : A competitive little race but Deep Squeeze is another likely to progress from his first run of the season when finishing 3rd at Carlisle at 10/1 back at the end of the March.

17.55 - Catterick – Neos Mate - 12/1 (various firms) : Twice winner over C&D, problems last time out, think saddle slipped ? Could be worth a small ew bet at a decent price.

Edited by chrisobee
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Haha - you can forget your nap ChrisO!! He's my bet of the day too...

 

Others worth avoiding:

355 Perth: Nearby

440 Epsom: Tesslam

720 Kemp: On Terms

 

Lol, he won :D !!! Cill Rialaig ran a decent race to finish 4th. A good race but Alainmaar looks a good horse, won comfortably once getting to the front.

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Catterick 2.35 Magic Omen : A worthy favourite, no great price at around 11/8 but is going to be tough to beat.

 

It was indeed tough to beat but lost out in a photo having been 1/12 to take the race ! Whoever called the winner has certainly got better eyesight than me lol smiley-confused006.gif

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Lol, he won :D !!! Cill Rialaig ran a decent race to finish 4th. A good race but Alainmaar looks a good horse, won comfortably once getting to the front.

 

Against the odds Alainmaar won!! Suspect Jarvis will line him up for a big handicap... he won the John Smiths last year with Almiqdaad, maybe a similar sort.

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Nice work today guys..I didnt have time to look and post before work but fancy a few tonight

 

Southwell

 

6.25 Saint Espiegle, I tipped him last time out when he finished third at a big price, this is a poor race, and the longer trip should help him.

 

7.00 I really fancy Arctic Ben to win here, he is yet to win over hurdles, but has shown some useful placed form and has a nice low weight

 

7.30 The favourite should win this easily, but if he fails to get round, Identity Parade of Donald McCains could be some real value, he will surely get a place

 

Kempton

 

7.20 - Good Buy Dubai is a course and distance winner, he loves this time of year, and hopefully Chris Caitlin can give him a better ride than the amateur did last time out, on his debut for trainer Gordon (who i quite like)

 

8.20 - Walcot Square was a beaten favourite last time out, and in this, his handicap debut he will hopefully show the others a clean pair of heels.

 

8.50 - I really expected New Leyf to be favourite here, but he isnt, so we have to wade in with a bet, the horse is in fine form as well as the trainer. This extra furlong should not cause a problem.

 

9.20 Tubby Isaacs looked a useful sprinter before his injury, who knows if he is ready after such a long layoff, but I will be having a few quid on him, as if he has retained any ability he will be hard to beat.

 

Good luck all.

 

Frankie

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8.20 - Walcot Square was a beaten favourite last time out, and in this, his handicap debut he will hopefully show the others a clean pair of heels.

 

 

Good luck all.

 

Frankie

 

"Kempton 8.20 : Looks to be between the top 2 in the market, Hypnotised and Bohemian Melody. Slight preference for Bohemian Melody who won over 7f last month and trainer in decent form. Probably a race to avoid from the betting angle though."

 

Well we sowed that one up nicely !

 

1) Hypnotised 15/8

2 ) Bohemian Melody 2/1

3 ) Walcot Square 8/1 ( ran a nice race but could never get in front)

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9.20 Tubby Isaacs looked a useful sprinter before his injury, who knows if he is ready after such a long layoff, but I will be having a few quid on him, as if he has retained any ability he will be hard to beat.

 

Good luck all.

 

Frankie

 

Kempton 9.20 Riflessione : Won at Wolverhampton last month and a horse I've always liked. Up against another recent winner in Replicator and this is a tough race so I've just had a small ew bet at Skybet at 13/2 which looks good value.

 

Another one we nailed :)

 

1) Tubby Isaacs 5/1

2) Riflessione 7/1

 

Good stuff, you nearly called Identity Parade spot on but Romance Dance came with a very good late run. The favourite at 3/10 did indeed fall.

 

Must keep it up Frankie, not forgetting Cato !

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

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Not one mention of the Punchestown festival, poor show.

 

Too many crooks mate, I find with Irish racing unless your at the course and hearing the whispers its too hard to call.....I will try and pick a few for tomorrow though Ade, just for you

 

Frankie

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Too many crooks mate, I find with Irish racing unless your at the course and hearing the whispers its too hard to call.....I will try and pick a few for tomorrow though Ade, just for you

 

Frankie

 

Oh boy, don't encourage him to lose money........then again I might do the same. Poor Kip, always good for a laugh :D

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Yeah amazing how well we're doing mate, New Leyf just failed too. Like you say Walcot Square could be one to watch he ran a nice race and will hopefully improve. Only thing is theres so much racing on at the moment its hard to restrict selections.

 

Frankie

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Yeah amazing how well we're doing mate, New Leyf just failed too. Like you say Walcot Square could be one to watch he ran a nice race and will hopefully improve. Only thing is theres so much racing on at the moment its hard to restrict selections.

 

Frankie

 

Yes, I agree Frankie which is one reason why I give a fair few "mentions" and avoid Irish racing on the whole ! Said in commentary they thought Crown Choice had a little in hand, I'm not so sure. Either way 3/1 was a good price for New Leyf and definitely the value in the race, if you can always get odds like that you'll win in the long run, simple really !!

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

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Not one mention of the Punchestown festival, poor show.

 

Gary O'Brien today :

 

3.40 PUNCHESTOWN 1pt each-way MANHATTAN BOY 2nd 25/1

 

4.55 PUNCHESTOWN 1pt each-way ARABELLA BOY 2nd 5/1

 

5.30 PUNCHESTOWN - BETTING WITHOUT DENMAN 1pt each-way RARE BOB Lost and Denman ran a shocker in 4th

 

 

6.40 PUNCHESTOWN 2pts each-way Lost

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No time for explanations i'm afraid...will try and d a write up for tonight though.

 

Punchestown for Ade

 

5.30 Bensalem

 

Will do the rest when I get in from work

 

Fontwell

 

4.30 Count Boris

 

Perth

 

2.10 Ten Pole Tudor

 

Beverley

 

3.00 I'm Frank and Law to Himself

 

4.05 Elusive sue

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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Sorry Kip but at present nothing for Punchestown, large fields as always and in 2 races the best prices still equate to a 150%+ book. The 5.30 is actually one of the better races from a betting perspective. Bensalem invariably at least tends to place when finishing but has fallen in 2 of last 3 outings and the 14/1 available is surely down to that. However, is 3 from 4 over hurdles so it looks a sporting bet though Mourad and Quevega who head the market have strong claims. Might well include Frankie's selection in the ATR Festival tipping challenge:

 

http://www.attheraces.com/punchestown/index.aspx?ref=mainrhsfeature

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Hard to find anything very strong today but a few that interest me though generally not great prices. Firstly my NAP which will surely win ;)

 

18:25 Sthl Army Of Stars NAP : Progressing nicely and shed maiden tag at Kempton last time out. Is penalised for that success but with further improvement very likely I would not be surprised to see him win again, 5/2 is a decent price.Flores Sea invariably runs well here and looks the main danger to me.

 

14:30 Bev Deauville Flyer :Would rate as a good bet at 4/1 but not certain the trip will suit, could well need further but not one to be discounted lightly.

15:20 Font Astrolibra : Open to improvement in what is a very competitive race with little to chose IMO between the 1st 3 in the betting. However, Astrolibra looks to be reasonable value at 9/2 though ew might be the way to go.

16:50 Punc Lami : Should take all the beating. 2nd behind New Story at Cheltenham and several horses he beat are in the field today including Sizing Australia who probably rates 2nd best but seems highly unlikely to reverse the form of the Cheltenham race ( finished 7th).

17:15 Bev Tres Froide ew : A bit of a longshot at 12/1, form is nothing special apart from a win at Redcar back in October. Hugh Taylor has tipped Dispol Diva as his only bet today and as usual it's being supported.

 

Good luck, on the whole a watching day today with just a few small bets on Army of Stars and Tres Foide and maybe closer to the off L'Ami ( though not a great price) and Astrolibra.

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Couple of late pieces of info:

 

4.40 - Beverley - Chushka -

Despite being a bit too free in the early stages, Chushka impressed with both her attitude and resolution last time out at Musselburgh. After two runs over six furlongs on fast ground last season she reappeared over seven furlongs on G/S ground. She was quite entitled to feel the effects of those early exertions in the latter stages but she stuck to her task well and pulled five lengths clear of her stable mate in third. Both the winner and third had the actions of horses much better suited by the softening ground and, judged through her stable mate, her initial mark of 67 for this handicap debut looks very reasonable. The presence of a couple of forceful runners should help her settle and she represents a yard who are threatening to hit top form.

 

4.55 - Perth - Sambulando ew -

Ran arguably his best race last time out over 17 furlongs in soft ground at Newbury. He lost out narrowly to a well handicapped horse returning to form with the pair pulling ten lengths clear of, what looked, a competitive field. He travelled well through the race and, although not finding as much as expected, hindsight may dictate that he had a difficult task. The return to quicker ground will not inconvenience him and the step up to 20 furlongs could suit a horse who relaxes as well as he does. He represents a yard with a 30% strike rate at this track in recent seasons (33%, 3 from 9, over hurdles). Worth a small ew wager at around 15/2.

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No time for explanations i'm afraid...will try and d a write up for tonight though.

 

Punchestown for Ade

 

5.30 Bensalem

 

Will do the rest when I get in from work

 

Fontwell

 

4.30 Count Boris

 

Perth

 

2.10 Ten Pole Tudor

 

Beverley

 

3.00 I'm Frank and Law to Himself

 

4.05 Elusive sue

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

 

Couple of nice places here with Bensalem and Elusive Sue 2nd at double figure odds and Law to Himself coming third (I'n Frank came 4th at 33/1 and will be one to follow) at a good price.

 

Frankie

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Right my evening selections after a frustrating afternoon of placed horses

 

Punchestown

 

6.05 Warcraft is a horse I followed and is often punted, it has only won once, but I cannot leave it alone tonight, he seems to have been steadily supported on Betfair throughout the day and may well be off tonight.

 

6.40 I fancied Psycho but have gone against it with Willie Mullins Sports Line, the trainer has been in amazing form this week, and if the horse can put a poor Cheltenham run behind him, he must be thereabouts.

 

Uttoxeter

 

Not the best of cards but from the 6.05 onwards I am going to do a small bet on all of McCains horses.

 

Southwell to follow

 

Frankie

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Southwell

 

6.25 I fancy two here Blue Noodles has been in good form since being claimed by Evans and he is in great form, hopefully the rise will anchor the fav and he can take advantage...I also like Elusive Warrior, he has won 8 of his 9 races at this course and if he can get back some of his form he may run well at a big price.

 

6.55 I have had a whisper for Onemoreandstay, so that's the one i'm going for.

 

7.55 I really fancied both Mosqueta and Kanace on their handicap debuts, but I see they have both been pulled out, definitely two to put in the notebooks when they do run as I feel they were both ready today but maybe neither yard wanted to take the other on. What is good about this is that it leaves it open for Buzz Bird who will hopefully take a far from brillaint race.

 

Good luck all

 

Frankie

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Another OK evening...Warcraft despite being well punted was the biggest dissapointment.

 

Had a tenner treble on the three McCain horses and through some good luck it came in paying just over £60.00

 

Southwell was shocking until Buzz Bird flew home in the last, good times

 

Frankie

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Posting tomorrow afternoons selections now as won't have time in the morning, will add my evening selections when i get in from work

 

Punchestown

 

5.30 Champion Hurdle, I really like Dunguib, but he is up against some tough older opposition here and I feel his jockey is too experienced here, I have to go for Hurricane Fly, his trainer is in super form, his defeat of Go Native in 2008 was awesome and if he can produce anything like that form he will surely win this.

 

Sandown

 

1.10 I really liked Red Badge last season and will follow him with interest this year, this is a tricky race and a case can be made for every horse, but Red Badge it is.

 

1.45 Azmeel is well regarded, he holds a Derby entry and to be considered seriously for that he needs to run well here, he looked very smart before running poorly in a valuable race in Ireland when favourite, hopefully that was just a blip.

 

I also fancy Ship's Biscuit in the 3.25 but he is probably going to be a very skinny price...anything over 5/2 and it will be a bet for me.

 

Wolverhampton

 

1.55 Flighty Frances ran well on his debut, running on nicely after a slow start under a tender ride, this extra furlong should help

 

4.05 I can't desert Bernix after he won at a great price for me last time out, but at 17lb higher he has it all to do here, so I will be dutching him with The Grey One, who ran ok on his reappearance and has good course and distance form.

 

Only a couple for mild interest at Perth, in the 4.15 i'd be interested to see how Arc Warrior runs and in the 4.50 it would be nice to see Nedzer's Return follow up his recent win.

 

Good luck all, keep smiling

 

Frankie

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You may or may not believe me but todays only bet was quevago, absolute class act as she was at Cheltenham, thats 3 times I've backed her and 3 times she's won.:smt026

 

Nice one Ade, you should have done him in a forecast with Bensalem as us boys on here tipped him up :-)

 

Frankie

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Nice one Ade, you should have done him in a forecast with Bensalem as us boys on here tipped him up :-)

 

Frankie

 

Indeed we did :)

 

"Bensalem invariably at least tends to place when finishing but has fallen in 2 of last 3 outings and the 14/1 available is surely down to that. However, is 3 from 4 over hurdles so it looks a sporting bet though Mourad and Quevega who head the market have strong claims"

 

Also gave L'Ami just for you, though not a great price at 13/8 still ran a good race and fully deserved to win. Bit peeved my NAP got beaten and the winner was the other horse I mentioned as the main danger Flores Sea at 6/1. I'd like to say I had a small saver on it but I didn't !

Nevertheless it turned out to be a very good day's racing.

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A few early thoughts for Wolverhampton:

 

2.30 Libertino : Unlucky not to win 3 days ago when wearing blinkers for first time. Record reads 24-4552 and hopefully can finally get off the mark today. That said it's hard to dismiss Kenswick and Catherine's Call. Only prices so far are on BF, Libertino around 9/2. This could well be another race where ew is the best option depending on how the bookies price it up.

 

3.05 Master Lightfoot: Has won on last two outings, looked a bit lazy lto so might be more to come. Just possible though that the 6lb penalty for the recent win might be enough to end his winning run so looking beyond him Grudge who is currently 7/1 on BF has a record of 442141 so is probably the value call ew if all 8 go to post.

 

4.35 Global Village : This is a horse I really like, won twice over C&D last term and has won twice again this term. Again the extra 6lb he carries is a slight concern but is entitled to be favourite, 9/4 with Betfred. Emeebee is a bit of an unknown quantity, market move for this one could be significant. Currently 8/1.

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Sandown

 

1.10 Invincible Soul : Indeed a very trappy race, the selection is a progressive type and should go well. Red Badge merits respect especially with the Hannon yard in form. Decent price at 8/1 on Betfair but generally on the drift.

 

1.45 ? Don't really know where to start with this race ! Frankie's selection Azmeel is indeed highly regarded and if the flop last time out is ignored then looks the one with most scope for improvement. For me though no bet but good luck Frankie, you might need it :)

 

2.20 Dorback : Another very competitive race and probably best left alone though money for Dorback this morning may be significant.

 

2.55 Only 5 runners but a case can be made for at least 4 of them, only Red Flash which is currently trading at 151/1 on Betfair could reasonably be discounted ( which means it will probably win). If I was having my arm twisted I do like No Hubris who though has not run for 311 days did make a good impression on his debut.

 

3.25 It doesn't get any easier but Ships Biscuit is currently a best priced 9/2 with VC so I think Frankie will be getting stuck in ! Definitely worth an investment at that price.

 

3.55 Street Entertainer ew : After several trappy races we end with err another trappy race ! However, though not proven on turf Street Entertainer cetainly has ability and the 12/1 generally available looks a decent enough price. Jutland at 5/1 may be worth a small saver.

 

Luck of the Irish to ya !

Edited by chrisobee
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Perth

 

A few of interest :

 

3.45 Bear Witness: A very open contest but Bear Witness selection is relatively inexperienced under Rules but he also has half a dozen runs between the flags under his belt and there was plenty to like about his most recent outing. The winner went on to land a Grade 2 chase next time out but Bear Witness pulled nicely clear of the third and looks well treated on that evidence with the possibility of more to come over this trip.

 

4.15 Symphonica : Made a promising debut for Gordon Elliott finishing 2nd at Tramore. Ran poorly last time out but looks to be worth another chance at around 6/1 especially as the yard do well here. Stopped Out merits respect, it will be interesting to see if he can defy a penalty and follow up success at Kelso last month.

 

4.50 Nedzer's Return : Pretty much what you said Frankie, obliged for me last time out and may well be able to defy a 7lb penalty.

 

5.20 Skipper Robin : Still very much on the up, faces a strong challenge from Fairynuff but looks the likeliest winner though I think I'll probably give this one a miss.

Edited by chrisobee
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A few late pieces of info:

 

Wolv 1.25 John Potts ew : Very consistent type and is fancied to go well in this tricky race at around 10/1.

Punch 4.20 Inoma James ew : Very disappointing last time out but progressive type, 16/1 looks a good price if he returns to last years form.

Wolv 4.05 Aegean King NAP: Bred to stay a mile and with connections seeming confident this looks a very lkely winner so will totally scupper that by making it my NAP :)

New Abbot 5.55 Captain Becket/Bubbs ew : The favourite Gaspara looks plenty short enough at 3/1 given her best days seem behind her. Captain Becket looks a good ew option at 14/1 if running to anything like his best form. Bubbs is another capable of better than his last outing having beaten Tabaran ( who runs here and is 2nd favourite behind Gaspara) over C&D back in October. Best price is 25/1 with Bet 365 but as short as 14/1 with several firms.

Punch 6.20 Arvika Ligeonniere : Short enough at 2/1 but ran well at Cheltenham and with the stable in form looks the one to be on.

Chepstow 6.45 Impact Zone : Unexposed horse who should relish the increase in trip. Worth keeping an eye on in the betting

Bangor 7.40 Wizards Dust : Inconsistent type but another who if he runs anything like his best should be the one to beat. You're taking a chance backing him given his quirky nature but 11/2 -6/1 looks a fair enough price.

Edited by chrisobee
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Blimey quite a day...Hurrican Fly won a superb Irish Champion Hurdle at 3/1, Flighty Frances won very nicely at 7/1 and amazingly Bernix defied the hike in the weights and won at 20/1........plus Global Village 7/4, No Hubris 3/1, Nedzer's Return 2/1 and Skipper Robin 3/1 tipped by Chrisobee...

 

Not blowing our own trumpets but where else would you get tips of that quality :-)

 

Frankie

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A few for tonight...unfortunately it is all jumps this evening so gambling kept to a minimum

 

Newton Abbot.

 

5.55 Gaspara has been well punted this season on more than one occasion, but has ran poorly, I am giving him one more chance before leaving him all together.

 

8.05 Mic Aubin has good form in this sphere and will take all the beating for an outsider I like Walter De Wodeland

 

Posting this quick as 5.55 off in a minute.

 

Frankie

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Punchestown

 

6.05 I really like Luska Lad, he has shown a really good attitude to win his last two, his form is solid and despite a very open race I think he will take all the beating.

 

6.40 Mr Whizz looks unexposed, he was found to be wrong after his last run, if he is back to form now he could well be anything...a speculative punt

 

Chepstow

 

6.15 Star Galaxy has been very consistent this year, he failed to shine in a much harder race 4 days ago, in this easier handicap he will hopefully return to form.

 

7.20 I often look for a decent jockey in these events, thankfully i've found a decent jockey and a horse with a chance....Silver Story has the very capable Oli Greenal on board and depite finishing second on his last two starts tonight could be his night.

 

Bangor

 

6.05 Prince Louis jumped left handed last time, but despite that won, this left handed track could help him and I am hoping it will.

 

6.35 Fassaroe

 

8.15 Knight in Purple...

 

Just choked on my tea after the Gaspara race

 

Frankie

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After a good day, a frustrating evening, Gaspara would have won except the jockey swerved the last fence thinking that he had been flagged around it...the other picks were pretty bad to be honest, except Walter De Wodeland in the 8.05 at Newton Abbot who would have won if not falling, unfortunately thats the name of the game...thankfully Knight in Purple pulled me out a winner in the last at 7/2.

 

Chris again picked a couple of winners with Wizards Dust at a very nice 9/2 and Arvika Ligeonniere hacked up at 3/1, nice work Chris

 

Frankie

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That Gaspara debacle was funny, I'm not sure if anyone knew what was going on.

 

Did Solwhit to win today :( and reve de sivola:) cracking performance considering the trouble it suffered.

 

I agree Ade with Gaspara race, should have void the race really...Solwhit ran well mate, that Hurricane Fly is a machine though, I love Reve De Sivola but thought the price was a but skinny in a very good race....did you follow any of our tips today mate..20/1 7/1 winners in amongst them :-)

 

Frankie

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After a good day, a frustrating evening, Gaspara would have won except the jockey swerved the last fence thinking that he had been flagged around it...the other picks were pretty bad to be honest, except Walter De Wodeland in the 8.05 at Newton Abbot who would have won if not falling, unfortunately thats the name of the game...thankfully Knight in Purple pulled me out a winner in the last at 7/2.

 

Chris again picked a couple of winners with Wizards Dust at a very nice 9/2 and Arvika Ligeonniere hacked up at 3/1, nice work Chris

 

Frankie

 

Thanks Frankie, let's blow our own trumpets. The Boys done well !!

 

Chris

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I agree mate, wonder how many read this topic...be interested to know

 

Frankie

 

Not enough would be my guess ! Not just picking winners but excellent analysis from you and mine is ok on a good day :) It always helps to know why someone is selecting a horse excepting of course time constraints. Luckily I had a totally free day today, it helps.

Haven't yet seen the Gaspara race so going to watch it now WITHOUT a cup of tea in my hand :D

 

Cheers,

 

Chris

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I agree Ade with Gaspara race, should have void the race really...Solwhit ran well mate, that Hurricane Fly is a machine though, I love Reve De Sivola but thought the price was a but skinny in a very good race....did you follow any of our tips today mate..20/1 7/1 winners in amongst them :-)

 

Frankie

Didn't follow your tips, sooner or later you will start losing, it will probably be the day I start backing yours.
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Oh boy, I thought Gaspara and the jockey were desperately unlucky. There was clearly a screen up just behind the fence and someone waving a flag. Have to say anyone who backed Gaspara should at least get their stake money back, of course some bookies ( though on the whole not those online) do pay 1st past the post even if it is disqualified. What a shambles !

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