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bungle

By bungle,
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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted

Horse racing is disgusting, doesn't matter if I back a favourite or a 12/1 shot the same thing happens everything f*ckin time. I gave up smoking a month ago and it's been quite easy, wonder how hard giving up gambling will be?? A damm site harder I expect. last ever bet tonight on football.

 

benfica

Fulham

Hamburg

Valencia

 

I will never post on this thread again.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted (edited)
Nice one Chris! Clearly Chance Du Roy does not read the forum and was not aware of the weight of expectation.

 

Didn't think we had much chance with a circuit to go, nice ride from Tad.

 

Was thinking exactly the same, reckon Chance Du Roy would have been 10/1+ in running most of the way. Jockey did do well as the horse made a few small errors and needed to be kept in the race, good ride. Lucky indeed that horses cannot read !

Just in fact caught up with all the racing, amazingly on the Tip Exchange ( always worth a look) all my win only bets won , not even a placer amongst the ew bets :

 

Folk 14:10 Helen Of Toy Each Way Lost

Folk 14:40 Rocker Each Way Lost

Folk 15:10 Caramelita Won Evens

Ludl 15:30 Kennel Hill Won 4/6

Folk 15:40 Spitfire Won 4/1

Ludl 16:00 Chance Du Roy Won 3/1

Folk 16:10 Hawkridge Star Won 9/4

Ludl 16:30 Just Rob Won 9/4

Folk 16:40 Holyfield Warrior Each Way Lost

Folk 16:40 Mick Is Back Each Way Lost

 

I really loved the ride McCoy gave Kennel Hill, a really temperemental horse though with a lot of ability, one big reason for not backing it was that it doesn't always want to race! However, at even money this morning was definitely worth a few quid and it won by 9 lengths without even breaking sweat. Really one of the easiest winners ever but the way McCoy rode was sublime, just coaxed the horse round, only went to the front about 3 fences out and never had a problem. What that race and the Chance Du Roy race showed was how important jockeys are and often they get criticised but McCoy and O'Brien were both excellent in different ways. Of course McCoy we all know about but I'll be looking out for a certain TJ O'brien in future!

Edited by chrisobee
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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
Horse racing is disgusting, doesn't matter if I back a favourite or a 12/1 shot the same thing happens everything f*ckin time. I gave up smoking a month ago and it's been quite easy, wonder how hard giving up gambling will be?? A damm site harder I expect. last ever bet tonight on football.

 

benfica

Fulham

Hamburg

Valencia

 

I will never post on this thread again.

 

3/4, damn your luck. Ah well your erudite posts on here will be sorely missed!

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Guys heres something that might interest some of you...taken from the Betfair forum...

 

its horses to follow for the forthcoming flat season, i've stuck them on horsealerts, which is a free service at easyodds.com. emails you when a horse is going to run so you dont miss it...hope its of some interest..

 

Flat season horses to follow that I think will prove to be profitable when conditions are in their favour. They will mostly contest the races I specialise betting in, better class handicaps, listed & group 3 races. They are all promising horses, mostly 3 year olds with scope who will grow & strengthen becoming stronger & faster:

 

Acrostic

At Wits End

Banana Republic

Beauchamp Yorker

Bernie The Bolt

Big Sur

Cape Quarter

Caucus

Centurio

Champagnelifestyle

Commissionaire

Cook's Endeavour

Cygnet

Doctor Zhivago

Esaar

Escape Artist

Esuvia

Fair Trade

Fantastic Cuix

Forte Dei Marmi

Hajjaan

Jedi

King's Song

Layla's Dancer

Man Of Action

Mawzoon

Ming Master

Mistoffelees

Mont Agel

Mr Irons

Mufarrh

Munsarim

Official Style

Oriental Scot

Our Joe Mac

Ouster

Pekan Star

Prince Of Dreams

Principal Role

Rumoush

Saddlers Lodge

Ship's Biscuit

Sweet Secret

Top Tigress

Treble Jig

Vitznau

Wigmore Hall

Xilerator

Zaahy

 

 

Saintfrankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

Some more to follow with a bit of analysis/reasoning thrown in:

 

Classic Hopefuls:

 

Timepeice (Form 211-)

 

A Henry Cecil 3yo filly who got beaten as favourite on her debut but then won at Lingfield on the All Weather and followed up in a Listed race back at Newmarket. I was really impressed with the way she stuck on in the final furlong to beat Nurture. With 4 1/2 lengths back to the third, in what looked a decent race, she must be very near the top of the female pecking order at Warren Place . Not surprisingly, she’s been well supported in the last couple of days for the Oaks.

 

Beyond Desire (Form 124-)

 

She won first time up at Goodwood in a race that hasn’t really worked out but then ran a fine second to Lady of The Desert in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York. Her next run looked a formality in a Group 3 up at Ayr but that meeting was plagued by dodgy results thanks to a very bad draw bias and although she won the race on the ‘unfavoured’ side she couldn’t do anything about the first three home. If anyone is in any doubt about the draw bias for that race they need look no further than the result of the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes run later in the season at Newmarket. In the Ayr race Music Show was the 5/1 second favourite, was drawn on the wrong side and finished 10th. She won the Rockfel at 25/1 beating the Ayr 1st and 3rd by over 8 lengths. A reversal in form of over 20 lengths.

 

Beyond Desire is my idea of an extremely good bet for the 1000 Guineas at 40/1.

 

St Nicholas Abbey (Form 111-)

 

Not very original but the way he won the Racing Post mile stamped him as a very exciting 2yo. Aiden O’Brien’s charge won by over 3 lengths from the previously unbeaten and highly regarded John Dunlop horse Ellusive Pimpernel. With another 2 and a bit lengths back to the third Al Zir (who was another unbeaten and highly regarded runner) from the Saeed Bin Suroor yard the form is rock solid. The Epsom Derby beckons.

 

Canford Cliffs (Form 113-)

 

The way in which he won the Coventry at Royal Ascot is still etched clearly in my mind and on that running he surely can’t be out of the first two in the 2000 Guineas. He slammed Xtension (3rd in the Dewhurt) by 6 lengths that day with a fine front running performance and never looked in trouble at any stage of the race. He then went to France for a Group 1 but got turned over at 4/9 in a small field by Arcano and Special Duty but there wasn’t really anything between the first three home. I’d expect a return to the front running tactics that worked so well at Ascot for the Guineas in May.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted (edited)

Quite a few to avoid today :

 

Carl 14:15 Diamond Frontier

Kemp 14.40 Classic Colori

Carl 14:50 Hockenheim/Bay Cherry

Kemp 15:15 Please Sing Each Way

Hayd 15:30 Salut Flo

Hayd 15:30 Prince De Beauchene

Dund 15:35 Green Manalishi

Kemp 15:50 The Scorching Wind/ Servoca

Kemp 16:20 Jack My Boy Each Way

Carl 16:30 Seven Is Lucky

Hayd 16:35 Sarando

Dund 16:40 Odins Raven to Win

Carl 17:00 Quicuyo to Win ( Hugh Taylor has tipped Norminster Each Way @ 50/1 !)

Dund 17:10 Concert Piece

Kemp 17:25 Totally Focussed Each Way

Dund 17:40 Full Of Hope

Edited by chrisobee
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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

All Hugh Taylor's tips just for Kip...

 

3.25 CARLISLE 3pts win BILLSGREY (4-1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Victor Chandler)

 

5.00 CARLISLE 1pt each way NORMINSTER (50-1 Victor Chandler, 40-1 general)

 

5.25 KEMPTON 1pt each way TOTALLY FOCUSSED (18-1 Totesport, Victor Chandler, William Hill)

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
Quite a few to avoid today :

 

Carl 14:15 Diamond Frontier

Kemp 14.40 Classic Colori

Carl 14:50 Hockenheim/Bay Cherry

Kemp 15:15 Please Sing Each Way

Hayd 15:30 Salut Flo

Hayd 15:30 Prince De Beauchene

Dund 15:35 Green Manalishi

Kemp 15:50 The Scorching Wind/ Servoca

Kemp 16:20 Jack My Boy Each Way

Carl 16:30 Seven Is Lucky

Hayd 16:35 Sarando

Dund 16:40 Odins Raven to Win

Carl 17:00 Quicuyo to Win ( Hugh Taylor has tipped Norminster Each Way @ 50/1 !)

Dund 17:10 Concert Piece

Kemp 17:25 Totally Focussed Each Way

Dund 17:40 Full Of Hope

 

One out of one chrisofthebees.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
Diman waters been well backed against it. Currently get 9/4

 

Beat me to it, Esuvia best price 11/4 ( VC, Ladbrokes), Diman Waters 5/2 with most firms.

Anyway I'll jinx Diman Waters !

For me today :

 

2.20- Mussleburgh River Star

 

2.50 - Musselbugh: River Falcon /Rasaman - Both 10/1 +

 

2.25 - Fairyhouse Luska Lad

 

3.20 Musselburgh Jack O'lantern

 

3.30 - Plumpton - Olympian

 

3.50 - Musselburgh - Bogside Theatre

 

4.50 Musleburgh - Goodlukin Lucy

 

5.20 Mussleburgh - Diman Waters

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
Big bet today 5.20 Musselburgh Esuvia

 

Will surely be a class above these in the finale...fill your boots

 

Frankie

Well done Frankie, I had it in a double with the favourite at Cork in the 5.15, only bet of the day a massive £5 win double, £30 profit and I can now afford to go to the pub. :o
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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
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Also just checked on Hugh Taylors bet of the day. Tipped up at 33/1 and it won, didn't back it:(

 

If it's any consolation the SP was "only" 11/1 !

Not a bad day, 3 winners and Rasaman ran a good race to finish 3rd at 14/1, the good times are coming to TSF !!!

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chrisobee

chrisobee

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Irish National

 

Key Stats :

 

All of the last ten winners had Official Ratings between 121 and 136. Six of those were rated from 130 to 136.

All of the last ten winners had previously run in a Chase worth at least £45000.

All of the last ten winners had won over three miles or more.

All of the last ten winners had run less than 13 times over fences.

Nine of the last ten winners carried 10 stone 12 lb or less.

Nine of the last ten winners were aged nine or younger. Two were nine, three were eight and four were seven.

Nine of the last ten winners were either in their first or second season as Chasers.

Nine of the last ten winners had run within two months of the race.

Seven of the last ten winners won or were placed on either of their last two starts, three won last time out.

Willie Mullins has never won the race.

None of the last ten winners were favourites, with only two placing.

Nine of the last ten winners were priced 10/1 or greater with three winning at 33/1.

 

However, in a field of 30 of course anything is possible, I think these will run well at decent prices:

 

Alpha Ridge (10/1 at Totesport) - Yet to win in six attempts over fences, four under rules and two in Points. However he has shaped as though a dour staying test will bring him into his own and he relishes the mud. Very progressive as a hurdler in recent seasons, winning five of his ten starts, and early indications are that he is likely to prove just as effective over fences. Makes his handicap debut in this race from mark of 135 and the form of his second in the Drinmore Novice Chase over 20 furlongs here in December suggests that could be lenient if, as expected, he finds plenty of further improvement granted this severe stamina test. The yard are in fair form and the selection appears to be their first string on jockey bookings.

 

Across The Bay ( 25/1 at Ladbrokes) - A speculative choice in as much as that he is a young inexperienced horse who may find this race coming a bit early in his Chase career. This is only his third start over fences but he won on his Chase debut over 19 furlongs at Navan in heavy ground before failing narrowly to give Jendali six pounds stepped up to three miles at the same track. That form was franked by the winner in the Powers Gold Cup today, albeit a little fortunately. He moves into handicap company on an initial mark of 131, which looks more than generous, and he is far from exposed under conditions he gives every indication will suit. He represents a top yard who are in very good form and, with today's jockey up, have an 18% strike rate in recent seasons.

 

Ambobo ( 28/1 at Bet365) - The stats say he is a bit high in the weights and a bit too old ideally and he is seven pounds above his last winning mark over fences. However that win came over Vic Venturi in a very good quality, competitive handicap chase at Punchestown. That race followed his effort in this race last year where he unseated his rider when making his move six from home. Most of his racing over the larger obstacles has come in big fields and he is still relatively unexposed over three miles and more. The yard know what it takes to win this race (their 2005 winer was also a ten year old) and their representative is likely to have been trained with this race specifically in mind. The jockey has a very profitable 12% strike rate at the track and turns up for just the one booked ride.

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frankie

frankie

Posted
Posted

Loads of racing today, but just a few fancies for me...posting early as of to the game in a minute..

 

Redcar 5.30-Sir Louis...makes his handicap debut and with Fahey in great form could be a good bet in a weak looking race.

 

Huntingdon 3.20-Southampton...After finishing down the field in Ireland he then followed up with a superb run (finished second and had him at 125/1 on betfair), he then picked up an injury when 7th and fancied, if he has got over that injury he could run well.

 

Fakenham 2.40-I love these hunter chases, often give a good price for decent animals...i'm going for Lisadell king in this who was an unlucky beaten fav last time out and has a decent jockey for this type of race..

 

Dandino in the 4.20 at Redcar was one I had in my notebook after finishing second in its last race and given a quiet ride...but its not much of a price...

 

Irish National looks hard but i'm having a few quid on Hangover, he beat alot of these previously in a valuable race and was staying on over 3miles

 

Good luck all, come on you Saints

 

Frankie

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

 

Huntingdon 3.20-Southampton...After finishing down the field in Ireland he then followed up with a superb run (finished second and had him at 125/1 on betfair), he then picked up an injury when 7th and fancied, if he has got over that injury he could run well.

 

Frankie

 

For me definitely one to watch in the betting, unlikely to be floods of money going on this race but any move for Southampton will probably indicate stable confidence. Currently best price 8/1 at Betfred, generally 7/1.

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted

Yarm 13:45 Clockmaker

Fake 14:05 Kanad

Plump 14:30 Barrel Of Fun

Redc 14:35 Floras Pride Each Way @ 10/1 She takes the eye at a cracking value price.Word is she is fancied today .

Hunt 14:45 Cokatoo

Fairy 14:50 Kerb Appeal

Yarm 14:50 Clever Omneya Each Way @11/1

Cork 15:10 Outlaw Pete

Cork 16:20 By The Hour

Fairy 17:15 Psycho

Yarm 17:45 Sure Fire

 

EW double Floras Pride and Clever Omneya

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saintkiptanui

saintkiptanui

Posted
Posted
Hugh Taylor is in cracking form, for today and especially for Kip :

 

2.00 REDCAR

SALLY'S SWANSONG (16-1 general)

 

3.45 REDCAR

STAR ADDITION (33-1 Bet365, Victor Chandler)

 

After 4 days off being self employed the funds have gone, I am broke, the maggot is having to buy dinner, this is a first.

 

They will both win

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chrisobee

chrisobee

Posted
Posted
I am going to beg the maggot for £12 to do a placepot at Fairyhouse, these are the numbers.

 

2-3 Cousin Vinny/Head of The Posse- Yep, one of those should win

4-5-6-10-17 Kerb Appeal/Goodfellow/checkpointcharlie/Hold The Pin/Cayo Levantado- You have the 1st 4 in the betting including Kerb Appeal so looking good..

5 Mourad- One big danger, Donnas Palm

8-12-13-17-26-30 Ballytrim/Telenor/Alpha Ridge/Across The Bay/Saddlers Storm/Agus A Vic- watch Hangover spoil the party ;)

6 Last Instalment- trappy race

6-8 Pyscho/Native Clan- if you're still alive at this point one of these two should do it for you!

 

10p stake.

 

Good luck Kipper my nipper smiley-happy005.gif

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