notnowcato Posted 17 March, 2009 Posted 17 March, 2009 (edited) Two and a half weeks until the big day. I bloody love this race and now that Cheltenham is done and dusted for a year it's time to check the decs. Today was the final forfeit stage, big weights like Exotic Dancer and Star de Mohaison have been pulled. Madison De Berlais is still in but is huge on Betfair which suggests he is unlikely to run, therefore we should see a 7lb hike in the weights. If this is the case most of the runners for the Grand National will be in the handicap proper. A long range forecast on metcheck for Liverpool shows very little rain expected... so, taking this all into consideration where are the big priced e/w bets to be had??? I've had 3 cheeky each way bets on: Offshore Account 50/1 Brooklyn Brownie 66/1 Not guaranteed to run but every chance they will. Good luck to all. Edited 17 March, 2009 by notnowcato can't type
SNSUN Posted 18 March, 2009 Posted 18 March, 2009 None of that means anything to me, however I can't afford to bet anyway after a disastrous Cheltenham. :-(
notnowcato Posted 18 March, 2009 Author Posted 18 March, 2009 A few statistical pointers... As a rule: - winners are aged between 8 and 10 years of age - are in the handicap proper - carry less than 11 stone - have won any NH race, be it over the sticks or fences, distance less than 2m 5f - have won a class 3 hcap or better over 3m Year Winner Age Weight Jockey Trainer SP 1999 Bobbyjo 9 10-00 Paul Carberry Tommy Carberry 10/1 2000 Papillon 9 10-12 Ruby Walsh Ted Walsh 10/1 2001 Red Marauder 11 10-11 Richard Guest Norman Mason 33/1 2002 Bindaree 8 10-04 Jim Culloty Nigel Twiston-Davies 20/1 2003 Monty's Pass 10 10-07 Barry Geraghty Jimmy Mangan 16/1 2004 Amberleigh House12 10-10 Graham Lee Ginger McCain 16/1 2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-01 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 7/1 F 2006 Numbersixvalverde10 10-08 Niall Madden Martin Brassil 11/1 2007 Silver Birch 10 10-06 Robbie Power Gordon Elliott 33/1 2008 Comply or Die 9 10-09 Timmy Murphy David Pipe 7/1JF
notnowcato Posted 18 March, 2009 Author Posted 18 March, 2009 In the last 50 runnings, taking into account the void race of 1993: - There has been no winner aged 7 or under - 34 out of 50 have been aged 8 to 10 - 7 aged 11 - Red Marauder won in bottomless ground in 2001 - 9 aged 12 - 2 of these were the magnificent Red Rum and impressive L'Escargot - No winner aged 13 or above - 41 out of the 50 winners carried 11 stone or less, again the mighty Red Rum bucked the trend twice and L'Escargot carried 11-3 to victory in 1975.
notnowcato Posted 19 March, 2009 Author Posted 19 March, 2009 Which horses fit this bill then? Good lord... you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink
saint_stevo Posted 20 March, 2009 Posted 20 March, 2009 Good lord... you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink Why have a dog and bark yourself?
Neil Posted 21 March, 2009 Posted 21 March, 2009 The 11-stone rule has probably been the single most important factor over recent years. (although noted above that Hedgehunter just broke the rule in '05, when carrying 11-1) Bit early, but here are the 88 entries (40 to race): http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,294298,00.html
Mole Posted 21 March, 2009 Posted 21 March, 2009 I've had 3 cheeky each way bets on: A horse @ 50/1 A horse @ 66/1 You might as well have given me the money.
Verbal Kint Posted 22 March, 2009 Posted 22 March, 2009 You might as well have given me the money. That's a bizarre thing to say considering the history of decent priced winners in the National, let alone the number of big priced horses that run into a place...
notnowcato Posted 23 March, 2009 Author Posted 23 March, 2009 (edited) You might as well have given me the money. If you double the odds on offer then I would be interested. Edited 23 March, 2009 by notnowcato
hamster Posted 29 March, 2009 Posted 29 March, 2009 What are the chances of a horse listed a 52nd starting due to withdrawals? My FIL reckons that Niche Market is worth a place bet if it runs.
notnowcato Posted 30 March, 2009 Author Posted 30 March, 2009 Of the shorter priced horses I will be backing Rambling Minster. Wont back until the day now as all the majors are shortening up, should open bigger on Saturday. Hard to say for certain if Niche Market will get a run or not. Suggest you keep an eye on Betfair, if it starts to drift (currently 109/1) before Thursday then that would possibly indicate it wont be running.
Saint Keith Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 has got to be War of Attrition. best horse in the race, if they have got him fit. and a very silly price atm
doublesaint Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 Cloudy Lane set to top the weights after the 5 day decs today, Donald McCain says winning 'unlikely' now, also Ruby Walsh will probably ride for Paul Nicholls on My Will rather than for his dad on Southern Vic, unless the rain comes.
doublesaint Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 A guide to all the declared runners..... http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/mar/30/grand-national-horse-racing-confirmed-runners
Thorpe-le-Saint Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 I know someone who works in Laddies PT and she says that they are taking a lot of money on "My Will"
Neil Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 War Of Attrition is out of the race, a good result for the bookies. Niche Market looks like no. 44 after the 5-day decs, so would need four more to pull out, think there are four reserves but not sure? Would guess he's unlikely to run but keep your ear to the ground.
notnowcato Posted 30 March, 2009 Author Posted 30 March, 2009 War Of Attrition is out of the race, a good result for the bookies. Niche Market looks like no. 44 after the 5-day decs, so would need four more to pull out, think there are four reserves but not sure? Would guess he's unlikely to run but keep your ear to the ground. Beware of Racing Post headlines on "gambles"...
saint_stevo Posted 30 March, 2009 Posted 30 March, 2009 Quite like Reveillez and Cornish Set e/w and Southern Vic on the nose
doublesaint Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 I know someone who works in Laddies PT and she says that they are taking a lot of money on "My Will" That is probably due to Ruby Walsh confirming his ride, wouldn't be the price it is if not ridden by him and trained by Paul Nicholls, in my mind not a value bet. Black Apalachian or Butlers Cabin are my 2 choices.
notnowcato Posted 31 March, 2009 Author Posted 31 March, 2009 That is probably due to Ruby Walsh confirming his ride, wouldn't be the price it is if not ridden by him and trained by Paul Nicholls, in my mind not a value bet. Black Apalachian or Butlers Cabin are my 2 choices. I like Butlers Cabin also. AP was swinging on this last year before falling at Beechers second time around. He's off a better mark as well. McCoy has got to win the National at some stage, surely!
keithd Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 my nickname is big fella. im thinking i might put a punt on big fella thanks. he's at 16's trained by nicholls and seems to have a fairly good pedigree, but nobody has mentioned him...any reason or just that its a lottery and it could be pick one from 40 and you've got as good a chance...
notnowcato Posted 31 March, 2009 Author Posted 31 March, 2009 For me the Big Fella offers better value than My Will. I'm not certain the likely ground will be perfect for him but he wont be deterred by the big field. As a 7 year old he does have a huge stat to overcome to win the race.
doublesaint Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 my nickname is big fella. im thinking i might put a punt on big fella thanks. he's at 16's trained by nicholls and seems to have a fairly good pedigree, but nobody has mentioned him...any reason or just that its a lottery and it could be pick one from 40 and you've got as good a chance... There is a wee bit of a myth in the whole race being a 'lottery', granted the first 3 or 4 fences can provide difficulties with such a big field hurtling towards them and the best horses can inadvertently get brought down rather than fall. Also from the previous few years, there is not anything exactly mega priced(seeing as there is a field of 40, favourites will be around 8/1) that has won, and you can certainly narrow down the chances by concentrating on the stats notnowcato has provided. If Ruby Walsh was riding your horse it would be shorter odds for sure.
keithd Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 hasnt Walsh's horse withdrawn? did i read that above or somewhere else..? i've backed it at 16's, i think thats a good enough price for an each way punt. as you say he's got a bit of history to overcome being a 7 year old, but he has the right weight on him (under 11 stone), good stable... now need to back something heavier, think i'll look at the rest of the national card for some larger bets..
Jillyanne Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 hasnt Walsh's horse withdrawn? did i read that above or somewhere else..? i've backed it at 16's, i think thats a good enough price for an each way punt. as you say he's got a bit of history to overcome being a 7 year old, but he has the right weight on him (under 11 stone), good stable... now need to back something heavier, think i'll look at the rest of the national card for some larger bets.. Isn't it a case of - he was riding for his dad and is now riding for Paul Nicholls instead?
alexpro7 Posted 31 March, 2009 Posted 31 March, 2009 Had a look through and came up with Rambling Minster and Kilbeggan Blade. These fit most of the trends for winners. Good jumpers who stay. Well weighted. Won over 3 miles. Great race to watch bets to a minimum for me. Good luck to all.
Iowsaintsfan Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 The 40 horses for the national 1 Cloudy Lane 2 Chelsea Harbour 3 Snowy Morning 4 Knowhere 5 Comply Or Die 6 Ollie Magern 7 Stan 8 Black Apalachi 9 Hear The Echo 10 Preists Leap 11 My Will 12 Eurotrek 13 State of Play 14 Big Fella Thanks 15 Mon Mome 16 Silver Birch 17 Butler's Cabin 18 Offshore Account 19 Parsons Legacy 20 Reveillez 21 Fundamentalist 22 Golden Flight 23 L'ami 24 Battlecry 25 Cornish Sett 26 Fleet Street 27 Musica Bella 28 Can't Buy Time 29 Darkness 30 Irish Invader 31 Rambling Minster 32 Southern Vic 33 Kilbeggan Blade 34 Brooklyn Brownie 35 Himalayan Trail 36 Arteea 37 Cerium 38 Idle Talk 39 Kelami 40 Zabenz
scott_saints Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Got money on Kilbeggan Blade, Rambling Minster and My Will. Also got My Will in sweepstake at work
Jillyanne Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Got money on Kilbeggan Blade, Rambling Minster and My Will. Also got My Will in sweepstake at work Unless you have a lot of mone on My Will Scott its not worth backing.
scott_saints Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Unless you have a lot of mone on My Will Scott its not worth backing. Only a 5er on it but that was also bearing in mind the sweepstake I'm in. If My Will wins then I get 80 quid from 6 quid, which is rather good
bungle Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Unless you have a lot of mone on My Will Scott its not worth backing. Why, it's 6 or 7/1 for the win. That is quite a bit of profit considering you get odds-on favourites in some races.
doublesaint Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Why, it's 6 or 7/1 for the win. That is quite a bit of profit considering you get odds-on favourites in some races. It may win, but that does still not necessarily make it a value bet, especially as it does not fit in to trends of recent winners of The National, also bear in mind that Ruby Walsh's profile has been elevated in the non racing publics eye due to his exploits at Cheltenham, and will be carrying a lot of small bets, forcing the price down further.
bungle Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 It may win, but that does still not necessarily make it a value bet, especially as it does not fit in to trends of recent winners of The National, also bear in mind that Ruby Walsh's profile has been elevated in the non racing publics eye due to his exploits at Cheltenham, and will be carrying a lot of small bets, forcing the price down further. Hey, I'm not saying I'm betting on it, just countering Jill's point that you'd need to bet lots of money. Not as if it's 4/5 or anything like that.
PompeyLass Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Quite like Reveillez and Cornish Set e/w and Southern Vic on the nose I got Southern Vic on the office sweepstake, seemed like a good omen so I went & put a fiver each way on it. Got odds of 20-1, is that any good ? What does on the nose mean ?
doublesaint Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Hey, I'm not saying I'm betting on it, just countering Jill's point that you'd need to bet lots of money. Not as if it's 4/5 or anything like that. Sorry if it seemed I was having a pop at you, just a general comment, I knew you personally knew better.
bungle Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Just been down to Ladbrokes, gone for Rambling Minster, Big Fella Thanks and Golden Flight at e/w
doublesaint Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 I got Southern Vic on the office sweepstake, seemed like a good omen so I went & put a fiver each way on it. Got odds of 20-1, is that any good ? What does on the nose mean ? Good if it wins, 20 times your stake for the fiver win, plus another fiver on at 5-1. On the nose means to win only, you have 2 bets basically, one bet to win and a 'covering' bet of it coming in first 4, though some bookies will pay out on 5 places. Each way is for pansies, fact.
bungle Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Sorry if it seemed I was having a pop at you, just a general comment, I knew you personally knew better. No worries! Didn't think you were having a pop. C'mon the horses.
PompeyLass Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Good if it wins, 20 times your stake for the fiver win, plus another fiver on at 5-1. On the nose means to win only, you have 2 bets basically, one bet to win and a 'covering' bet of it coming in first 4, though some bookies will pay out on 5 places. Each way is for pansies, fact. I am a pansy. Only ever been in a bookies once before today.
alexpro7 Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 an odds on winner is better than a 100/1 loser. Wise words indeed
camdijk Posted 3 April, 2009 Posted 3 April, 2009 Wise words indeed Unless the 100-1 shot is placed and you've backed it each way. ;-)
saintwarwick Posted 4 April, 2009 Posted 4 April, 2009 Good if it wins, 20 times your stake for the fiver win, plus another fiver on at 5-1. On the nose means to win only, you have 2 bets basically, one bet to win and a 'covering' bet of it coming in first 4, though some bookies will pay out on 5 places. Each way is for pansies, fact. My mum is a 73 year old pansy but she is quite happy with her £127.00 win
alexpro7 Posted 5 April, 2009 Posted 5 April, 2009 Well that was a bit of a shock! Horse did fit most trends though. Weighted at 11 stone. More than 10 runs over fences. Age 8-12. OR over 135. Run in last 50 days. Won at 3 miles plus. Thought Comply or Die ran a great race as well.
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