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The Run In: All the Games - All the Teams...

.comsaint

By .comsaint
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.comsaint

.comsaint

Posted
Posted (edited)

20. NOTT'M FOR.......Plyd 44...(GD-17 )...Pts...49

21. BARNSLEY..........Plyd 44...(GD -14)...Pts...48

------------------------------------------------

22. NORWICH...........Plyd 44...(GD -9 )...Pts...46

23. SAINTS.............Plyd 44...(GD -21)....Pts..44

24. CHARLTON.........Plyd 44...(GD -23)....Pts..36

 

 

REMAINING FIXTURES:

 

 

NORWICH : Reading (H); CHARLTON (A).

 

NOTT'M FOREST: Blackpool (A); SAINTS (H).

 

BARNSLEY: Wolves (H); PLYMOUTH (A).

 

SAINTS: Burnley (H); FOREST (A).

 

CHARLTON: Derby (A); NORWICH (H).

 

 

 

___________________________________________________________

*Updated as & when each team play. Correct as of Tue 21st April 2009

Edited by .comsaint
brightspark

brightspark

Posted
Posted

I actually feel that we have less of a chance of staying up, certainly compared to after Ipswich. We have to beat 2 of the teams above us to stay up, of which, in my opinion, one will be currently standing 5 points ahead of us.

 

I said before Derby we needed 4 points from 6, ie if we beat QPR we are on track. BUT if we lose to Blackpool I assure you the fat lady will have her roadies out testing that microphone.

Under Weststand

Under Weststand

Posted
Posted

I thought we'd draw with derby 1-1 had this down on my predictor league results, so to keep on track with that its got to be a win anything else I can't see us getting the points to stay up. Hope just about still flickering!! while there's life there's hope.

saints_is_the_south

saints_is_the_south

Posted
Posted

I'm despondent after last night. Just felt like one of those defining nights.

 

We simply must beat QPR or we are down imo. Even after then i don't see us picking up enough wins. Blackpool are hitting some form as are Watford. Everybody is taking Charlton at home as a dead cert 3 points. They held Reading last night so won't be as easy as everyone thinks & is ones of those games which Saints will typically f*ck up. Wolves away speaks for itself, Palace & Burnley a tricky home games & most probably end in draws. Sheff Wed a defeat & Forest a draw possibly.

 

With a pretty pessimistic head on i think we'll get 7 or 8 more points.

 

My mood will probably all change if win on Sat tho!

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted

We need to lose the false confidence that some are maintaining due to having a game in hand. It is against Watford, remember, and if we get a point it will be hard fought for. The next two games shape the season, win then draw is the absolute minimum, any less, particularly if we lose at Bloomfield Road, then bottoms will start squeaking.

RMoo2

RMoo2

Posted
Posted

As you can see from the info below in theory we have the second easiest run-in.

 

Team Games Remaining

v Teams at bottom Total

Home Away Total Home Away Total Opps Ave Pionts

Derby 2 1 3 5 5 10 51.80

Watford 3 1 4 5 5 10 48.60

Plymouth 1 2 3 4 4 8 48.75

Blackpool 3 2 5 4 4 8 46.00

Nottm F 1 2 3 4 4 8 51.38

Barnsley 2 3 5 5 6 11 51.27

Norwich 2 1 3 4 4 8 50.63

Saints 1 3 4 4 5 9 47.56

Charlton 2 2 4 5 4 9 52.00

gjphilsaint

gjphilsaint

Posted
Posted

saints are clearly going to need to do something that they have largely been unable to achieve all season

a) put together a good run

b) get better results than those around us

 

Is it possible to do that?

 

a) possible

b) unlikely

 

Consequence : relegation

Cause: too little too late!

Reasons: JP experiment/Lowe as defacto coach/matchday manager? Saga on loan? Other poor acquisitions on loan instead of keeping Raziak/John/Dyer etc?

 

Plus a bus-full of "other issues" as documented on this forum all season.

70's Mike

70's Mike

Posted
Posted
  RMoo2 said:
As you can see from the info below in theory we have the second easiest run-in.

 

Team Games Remaining

v Teams at bottom Total

Home Away Total Home Away Total Opps Ave Pionts

Derby 2 1 3 5 5 10 51.80

Watford 3 1 4 5 5 10 48.60

Plymouth 1 2 3 4 4 8 48.75

Blackpool 3 2 5 4 4 8 46.00

Nottm F 1 2 3 4 4 8 51.38

Barnsley 2 3 5 5 6 11 51.27

Norwich 2 1 3 4 4 8 50.63

Saints 1 3 4 4 5 9 47.56

Charlton 2 2 4 5 4 9 52.00

 

 

Thing is theory never scored a goal yet

slickmick

slickmick

Posted
Posted (edited)
  .comsaint said:
17. WATFORD .........Plyd 36...(GD. -4)....Pts...45

18. PLYMOUTH.........Plyd 38...(GD -12)...Pts...43

19. BLACKPOOL........Plyd 38...(GD -13)...Pts...43

20. NOTT'M FOR.......Plyd 38...(GD -13)...Pts...41

21. BARNSLEY..........Plyd 35...(GD -12)...Pts...40

------------------------------------------------

22. NORWICH...........Plyd 38...(GD. -9)....Pts...39

23. SAINTS.............Plyd 37...(GD -16)....Pts...38

24. CHARLTON.........Plyd 37...(GD -23)....Pts...28

 

 

REMAINING FIXTURES:

 

 

 

PLYMOUTH: Norwich (A); Burnley (H); Blackpool (A); Coventry (H); Birmingham (A); Doncaster (H); QPR (A); Barnsley (H).

 

BLACKPOOL: Barnsley (A); SAINTS (H); Plymouth (H); Preston (A); Reading (H); Charlton (A); Notts Forest (H); Swansea (A).

 

NOTT'M FOREST: Burnley (A); Wolves (H); Barnsley (A); Bristol City (H); Sheff United (A); Coventry (H); Blackpool (A); SAINTS (H).

 

BARNSLEY: Blackpool (H); Crystal Palace (H); Derby (A); Nott'm Forest (H); Sheff United (A); Watford (A); Swansea (H); Reading (A); Coventry (A); Wolves (H); Plymouth (A).

 

NORWICH: Plymouth (H); Birmingham (A); Sheff Wed (H); Swansea (A); Watford (H); Ipswich (A); Reading (H); Charlton (A).

 

SAINTS: QPR (H);Must Win Blackpool (A);Take a draw Charlton (H);Must win Watford (A);Lose Wolves (A);Lose Crystal Palace (H);Must win Sheff Wed (A);draw/lose Burnley (H);Must win Nott'm Forest (A).Draw

 

 

 

___________________________________________________________

*Updated as & when each team play. Correct as of 11th March 2009

Got rid of Charlton (already down) and Watford (think they will be safe).

14 points should be enough. Hopefully we will be safe before the Forest game.

Lots of clubs at the bottom playing each other, think we will be reallying on other results more than our own.

 

If our players are getting tired with all these games, then take a look at barnsley, they have to play two extra games in the run in.

 

I think its going to be between Barnsley, Blackpool, Forest and us.

 

Norwich and Plymouth to survive.

Edited by slickmick
slickmick

slickmick

Posted
Posted
  hypochondriac said:
Who do we want to win Saturday with Blcakpool and Barnsley. Blackpool?

 

 

Or Plymouth v Norwich. If we win, we gain on at least two of them, so a win win situation either way.

Saint Fan CaM

Saint Fan CaM

Posted
Posted
  nickh said:
lots of 6 pointers to be played in those games.It is hard to work out who really are the ones we need to lose most.

 

 

Surely for all the "6-pointers" for our rele-rivals, it would be better for it to be a draw so they each just get 1 point. Mind you, that's only good if we're winning. :(

jawillwill

jawillwill

Posted
Posted

It's getting towards that tense part of the season, and it seems like it really is beginning to turn into a relegation lottery. Good thread, and one which should be used to monitor the ups and downs of Saints as well as other stragglers.

NickG

NickG

Posted
Posted
  buctootim said:
Between Norwich, Notts F, Blackpool and us imo. Two from four.

 

personally add Plymouth to that -not far above us, played more and not in form. Not sure that Norwich will still be in it in couple of weeks

LaptopSaint

LaptopSaint

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just done the BBC predictor and was rather surprised to find Saints safe with 51 points at the end. I had us going 3-3-2 in the last eight games -- which isn't far out of line with recent form.

Norwich and Barnsley down with Charlton -- if you look at Barnsley's remaining games they're tough. Wolves, Reading, Sheff U and Swansea at the top, Plymouth and Forest at the bottom, Derby and Watford in form...

Norwich have a really tough run in too -- including Brum, Reading, Swansea away, a derby at Ipswich and Charlton away on the final day who will already be relegated and playing free-flowing football.

 

Anyway makes me more hopeful. But I have put us down for a win at Blackpool!

Edited by LaptopSaint
BotleySaint

BotleySaint

Posted
Posted

It isn't great but we are still alive. I really feel we must get six points from the next two games if we are serious about this. But we've had so many key games at home already where we've not prouced... Charlton could be another.

um pahars

um pahars

Posted
Posted

Not sure what type of a statistic this is, but below is the average position of the relegation team's opponents:

 

19. BARNSLEY..........11.25

 

20. NORWICH...........12.17

 

21. PLYMOUTH.........13.17

 

------------------------------------------------

22. NOTT'M FOR.......14.7

 

23. SAINTS.............13.14

 

24. CHARLTON......... Dead and buried

 

e.g. the avergae position of our 7 upcoming opponents is 13th, but obviously this doesn't take into account of home advantage and other factors (such as weighting).

 

Sort of shows everyones run in is fairly even(ish).

saint_bert

saint_bert

Posted
Posted
  BotleySaint said:
It isn't great but we are still alive. I really feel we must get six points from the next two games if we are serious about this. But we've had so many key games at home already where we've not prouced... Charlton could be another.

 

How embarrising would it be not to beat them at home

Guy

Guy

Posted
Posted
  .comsaint said:
** Blackpool have been removed as they & Derby & Watford all have 47 points and are almost certainly safe.

 

Not sure I'd agree with this. If Barnsley, Norwich or Plymouth win their next game and any of the 47 pointers fail to get a point, then they'd be back in the relegation battle. I'd suggest that even the teams on 50 points will still be looking over their shoulders until winning at least one more game.

.comsaint

.comsaint

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  Guy said:
Not sure I'd agree with this. If Barnsley, Norwich or Plymouth win their next game and any of the 47 pointers fail to get a point, then they'd be back in the relegation battle. I'd suggest that even the teams on 50 points will still be looking over their shoulders until winning at least one more game.

 

Well...

 

If Blackpool, Derby or Watford do get sucked back into the relegation mire - it will take me two minutes to update the table.

 

As it stands though; I can't see any of the 3 relegation places going to anyone except those teams that are shown in the table above.

St Marco

St Marco

Posted
Posted

Agree with you, looking at it i think Blackpool,Derby and Watford are safe, would take a big turn around for us to get the 8 points to jump over them.

 

I think it is down to us,Plymouth,Norwich and Forest for the last 2 spots. Looking at the run in i can see Norwich getting wins against Weds and Charlton and draws against Swansea and Watford. Giving them 8 points, making a total of 51 points.

 

Can see Plymouth beating Blackpool and Doncaster and draws against Barnsley and Coventry also giving 8 points with a total of 51.

 

Forest i can see beating Barnsley and drawing with Blackpool,Saints and Coventry getting 6 points meaning a total of 47 points.

 

And with us i can see us beating Charlton and Palace, drawing against Burnley and Weds. Giving 8 points with a total of 48. And i just don't think that will be enough to survive.

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted
  St Marco said:
Agree with you, looking at it i think Blackpool,Derby and Watford are safe, would take a big turn around for us to get the 8 points to jump over them.

 

I think it is down to us,Plymouth,Norwich and Forest for the last 2 spots. Looking at the run in i can see Norwich getting wins against Weds and Charlton and draws against Swansea and Watford. Giving them 8 points, making a total of 51 points.

 

Can see Plymouth beating Blackpool and Doncaster and draws against Barnsley and Coventry also giving 8 points with a total of 51.

 

Forest i can see beating Barnsley and drawing with Blackpool,Saints and Coventry getting 6 points meaning a total of 47 points.

 

And with us i can see us beating Charlton and Palace, drawing against Burnley and Weds. Giving 8 points with a total of 48. And i just don't think that will be enough to survive.

 

But if Forest get a point from drawing with us don't we get a point for drawing with them?

St Marco

St Marco

Posted
Posted
  Window Cleaner said:
But if Forest get a point from drawing with us don't we get a point for drawing with them?

 

Indeed it does, so gives us 49, which won't be enough considering we need 44 already to just lift us out of the drop zone (or a big GD turn around).

voteforpedro

voteforpedro

Posted
Posted
  St Marco said:
Indeed it does, so gives us 49, which won't be enough considering we need 44 already to just lift us out of the drop zone (or a big GD turn around).

 

We only need to improve our GD by 2 and we would have a better goal differance than plymouth, hardly a big turn around.

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

Posted
Posted (edited)
  voteforpedro said:
We only need to improve our GD by 2 and we would have a better goal differance than plymouth, hardly a big turn around.

 

I don't really see what all this super confidence in Plymouth is.

They've got 1 point from their last 4 games, before that they had a blip when they got 7 from 3 (even we got 9 from 3 on a rare blip).

They're losing at home nigh on every week and are absolute crap just now.Sturrock has targeted 3 wins from 7 games (before they lost at home again yesterday) so that's 3 from 6 now. Maybe we'll go down but I'd take Plymouth to go down with us over say Forest who we can send down by winning on the last day. Tall order but it becomes a 1 off cup-tie like game under those circumstances.Anything can happen, just why so many are writing us off completely when our recent record is as good if not better than most of the other relegation candidates I just couldn't say.

Edited by Window Cleaner
monosaint

monosaint

Posted
Posted

We have 21 points to play for which would take us to 61 points. Now, if we drop 9 points then I think we stay up. Perfectly possible. We are getting hard to beat at the moment.

.comsaint

.comsaint

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  Jonnyboy said:
Funny how all six play each other on the last day.

 

Good chance it will go down to the last game then!

 

Good spot!

 

So the final day of the season will certainly see many tears for some & much joy for others.

 

I only hope we're safe come our visit to The City Ground...but I somehow doubt it.

Amesbury Saint

Amesbury Saint

Posted
Posted
  monosaint said:
We have 21 points to play for which would take us to 61 points. Now, if we drop 9 points then I think we stay up. Perfectly possible. We are getting hard to beat at the moment.

 

but we need to win matches.

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