aintforever Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 To turn odds into probability you add 1 and then invert it. So 11/10 is a probability of 10/21 - or 47.6% How does that work with Charlton's odds?
Pancake Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 How does that work with Charlton's odds? Seems they are 127% likely to go down...:confused:
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 3-1 equals a 25% chance. Does that help?
St Marco Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Basically i think our odds mean if you put say a tenner on us and we go down you win a fiver right?
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Charlton's odds at 1/14 equals a 14/15 chance of relegation in my book.
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Basically i think our odds mean if you put say a tenner on us and we go down you win a fiver right? No, if you put a tenner on us you will win £11. That's what 11/10 means. (You will get back £21 in total if we are relegated.)
Micky Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I used to think that I was a complete dork when it came to understanding betting and odds - reading this thread has made me quite happy this morning...!!! BTW - Does anybody know if they do a "Betting Odds For Dummies" book - could become a bit of a best seller..!
londonsaint1604 Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Seems they are 127% likely to go down...:confused: That sounds a bit kind to me!
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I used to think that I was a complete dork when it came to understanding betting and odds - reading this thread has made me quite happy this morning...!!! BTW - Does anybody know if they do a "Betting Odds For Dummies" book - could become a bit of a best seller..! TBH, it's pretty straightforward until you get into fractions... then you're on your own!!!
Lets B Avenue Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 To turn odds into probability you add 1 and then invert it. So 11/10 is a probability of 10/21 - or 47.6% As someone who failed Maths A-level (still celebrating winning the FA cup 6 weeks earlier) isnt the problem with this that we are 11/10 to take one of the 3 relegation spots. We are also up against 23 others, whereas the heads/tails argument is the ultimate 2 horse race. I think.
JohnnyFartPants Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I added 10/10 (ie 1). 11/10 + 10/10 = 21/10. The probability is therefore 10/21. Here endeth the maths lesson. Still looks to me as if you changed 11 to 21 which is adding 10 in my book.
Window Cleaner Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Latest prices from SkyBet: Charlton 1/14 Norwich 4/5 Southampton 11/10 Blackpool 2/1 Barnsley 3/1 Plymouth 3/1 Notts Forest 7/2 Watford 8/1 Doncaster 12/1 Sheff Wed 33/1 Coventry 40/1 Derby 66/1 I'd say 2/1 for Blackpool is very generous odds actually.
Legod Third Coming Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 As someone who failed Maths A-level (still celebrating winning the FA cup 6 weeks earlier) isnt the problem with this that we are 11/10 to take one of the 3 relegation spots. We are also up against 23 others, whereas the heads/tails argument is the ultimate 2 horse race. I think. At the outset of the season, then the chances of going down would be 1 in 8 (3 in 24). But that's not the odds of going down, which take a number of factors into account. And that's from someone who just scraped at B at o-level
Junior Mullet Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I am concerned that we seem to play well against the teams higher up the table but really struggle with the othe teams fighting for their lives. That said if we play the same way as we did vs Ipswich and Preston we should be fine.
Junior Mullet Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Seems they are 127% likely to go down...:confused: Charlton are 93% likely to go down according to those odds. (Maths & Stats A level for those who want to know)
Pancake Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Charlton are 93% likely to go down according to those odds. (Maths & Stats A level for those who want to know) 13/14*100 (Windows Calculator for those that dont care )
Mole Posted 9 March, 2009 Author Posted 9 March, 2009 I'd say 2/1 for Blackpool is very generous odds actually. 7/2 on Forest looks the best bet to me. Everyone has been saying the last game at the city ground will be a relegation decider therefore on that basis (as a Saints fan) you should have a punt on them at this price.
Wes Tender Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I used to think that I was a complete dork when it came to understanding betting and odds - reading this thread has made me quite happy this morning...!!! BTW - Does anybody know if they do a "Betting Odds For Dummies" book - could become a bit of a best seller..! It would be appropriate, as betting is certainly a dummies' game.
Whitey Grandad Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Charlton are 93% likely to go down according to those odds. (Maths & Stats A level for those who want to know) Betting odds are not the probability that an event will happen but are merely a reflection of the money that has been placed on that event happening. They therefore reflect the opinions and judgments of the punters. From these odds we may thus infer what others think the probability is, but as I understand it, the more that people bet on an event happening the shorter the odds become (whatever that means).
NickG Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Betting odds are not the probability that an event will happen but are merely a reflection of the money that has been placed on that event happening. They therefore reflect the opinions and judgments of the punters. From these odds we may thus infer what others think the probability is, but as I understand it, the more that people bet on an event happening the shorter the odds become (whatever that means). or have bet on it previously - money would have gone on us, so unless people start putting money on say Blackpool the odds won't change with just the form quickly
Mole Posted 9 March, 2009 Author Posted 9 March, 2009 (edited) Betting odds are not the probability that an event will happen but are merely a reflection of the money that has been placed on that event happening. They therefore reflect the opinions and judgments of the punters. From these odds we may thus infer what others think the probability is, but as I understand it, the more that people bet on an event happening the shorter the odds become (whatever that means). Nah, it's not as simple as that. What about when a book first opens? Odds fluctuate according to where money is placed, especially so where the outcome can be nobbled. If for example a horses opening price is 40/1 and a punter put's £10K on it the bookies would get suspicious and shorten the price (and they'd lay the bet with other bookies), equally lots of small bets would see the price shorten. With football it's different because fixing a match is much more difficult and any "strange" LARGE bets would lead to the FA being notified. Therefore this market is not particularly suseptable to fluctuation based on betting volume. The bookies employ experts (pundits to you and me) and this is how they calculate their odds. Bets have very little effect on this market which is why football odds are fixed for matches and the price you see a week before is the price you'll get on the matchday. Edited 9 March, 2009 by Mole
Whitey Grandad Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 Nah, it's not as simple as that. What about when a book first opens? Odds fluctuate according to where money is placed, especially so where the outcome can be nobbled. If for example a horses opening price is 40/1 and a punter put's £10K on it the bookies would get suspicious and shorten the price (and they'd lay the bet with other bookies), equally lots of small bets would see the price shorten. With football it's different because fixing a match is much more difficult and any "strange" LARGE bets would lead to the FA being notified. Therefore this market is not particularly suseptable to fluctuation based on betting volume. The bookies employ experts (pundits to you and me) and this is how they calculate their odds. Bets have very little effect on this market which is why football odds are fixed. Then perhaps it's just as well that I'm not a betting man. It's bad enough running a business these days without relying on luck in order to make a living.
Mole Posted 9 March, 2009 Author Posted 9 March, 2009 Then perhaps it's just as well that I'm not a betting man. It's bad enough running a business these days without relying on luck in order to make a living. I like a flutter on a Saturday, and i have been known to have the odd silly bet i.e £250 on us to beat Norwich at home near the end of one season to pay for my season ticket - i doubled up on this occasion and got the ST at half price. That said these daft bets are rare for me and i prefer betting big when i've had a phone call from my uncle Mick who's a trainer. Not "the" Mick you're thinking of though.
Whitey Grandad Posted 9 March, 2009 Posted 9 March, 2009 I like a flutter on a Saturday, and i have been known to have the odd silly bet i.e £250 on us to beat Norwich at home near the end of one season to pay for my season ticket - i doubled up on this occasion and got the ST at half price. That said these daft bets are rare for me and i prefer betting big when i've had a phone call from my uncle Mick who's a trainer. Not "the" Mick you're thinking of though. Talking about our 'Mick', I was in Winchester one lunchtime a couple of weeks ago when I overheard a young couple walking behind me. '...and apparently it was Mick Channon.' said the lad. 'Who's he?', said the girl. 'Dunno' said the lad. It makes you cry, doesn't it? Don't they teach 'em anything in school these days?
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