Things around the corner

[docker-p]

Exactly my understanding, however, Lowe and his supporters and Crouch and his will have equal opportunity to make a bid for the club as any other investors / bargain hunters. Whilst, the administrator will not share confidentail issues with any of the bidders neither will they pamber to the wishes of the fans. They will act purely in the best interests of the creditors and do their best for the employees. My understanding (if correct) is that if the bids/proposals don't meet the requirements of the creditors or not in their best interests as deemed by the Administrator the club will not be sold as a going concern and broken up to raise as much cash as possible to pay of the debts. It is entirely, possible as well that a buyer(s) will only want to bid for parts of the club i.e. Staplewood/Jacksons Farms/ Stadium (Long term future redevelopement to be bought on the cheap and mothballed).

 

Personally, I remain very very concerned that fans simply view Administration as a get out of jail free card to get rid of Lowe and start again less 10points. The reality is a whole lot more serious and hopefully I am not over dramatising the situtaion to say that it could easily be the end of the line like Woolworths, Lehmans. Bears Stearns, MFI, etc. In fact I suggest the chances are no better than 50/50. If you were a potential buyer even one with deep pockets to buy the club tomorrow from administration would be a very risky proposition and you would need to some how syndicate that risk by dare I say it, shareholders.

 

I'm no expert in these matters and if my understanding of the facts of what could happen are wrong then please correct me but either way I think its important everyone is fully aware of the likely scenarios. Today's trading environment is whole lot different than the more recent examples of clubs going into administration and regardless of Lowe the prospect of hitting the club in pocket through protest coould have far more dire consquences. In fact remove Lowe now and without an investor the fate of this club will be in the hands of the accountants and that won't be pretty especially if HMRC are involved.

 

We may not like it but sometimes dependent on external influences the devil you know is whole lot more nicer than the one you're about to become acquainted with. A lot of you champion Crouch and Corbett as the fans choice people who understand them, a friend no less. On the other hand Lowe and Wilde are seen as untrusted evil collaborators, only interested in themelves, hated and despised like proverbial skates. All I can say never has it been so true to 'Keep your friends close but your enemies closer still'. Lowe will be a pussycat compared to Administrators.

 

United we MUST Stand - Divided we WILL fall and on the toss of a coin maybe for good.

Total ******. The difference between Woolies and a football club is the main assets of woolies could be sold off. SMS and Staplewood has no value unless its used by a football club. And I can't see Portsmyth, bournemouth of anyone making a bid to buy either. So it's in the creditors interest not to wind up and sell off the assets but to keep it as a going concern but under new management.

You should know that Rupert;)

[OldNick]

Total ******. The difference between Woolies and a football club is the main assets of woolies could be sold off. SMS and Staplewood has no value unless its used by a football club. And I can't see Portsmyth, bournemouth of anyone making a bid to buy either. So it's in the creditors interest not to wind up and sell off the assets but to keep it as a going concern but under new management.

You should know that Rupert;)

SMS I believe you are correct not so sure about Staplewood.All the money we have paid off our mortgage will be lost and then be renting the stadium back at probably the same rate as we are paying now in mortgage repayments

[Saint Fan CaM]

It didn't happen to them during 'the worst recession in 100 years'

RL should step aside and appoint someone as a talisman to try and unite the fanbase.An outsider who has not been tarnished by any of the past groups.

 

 

The problem is Nick we need investment to move on and this will not happen while PLC status exists. We need to deconstruct PLC status and then when 'a party' comes in to buy the club (assuming its not Lowe or Wilde), we as supporters can unite again under the new leadership and flood back through the gates. THAT's what we should be hoping for and THAT's the commitment as supporters we should be declaring publicly. IMHO of course.

[OldNick]

The problem is Nick we need investment to move on and this will not happen while PLC status exists. We need to deconstruct PLC status and then when 'a party' comes in to buy the club (assuming its not Lowe or Wilde), we as supporters can unite again under the new leadership and flood back through the gates. THAT's what we should be hoping for and THAT's the commitment as supporters we should be declaring publicly. IMHO of course.

I still cant see why a person with money will wait for the club to be a L1 side before coming in.As waiting for administration is what that is doing.If i was wealthy enough Im sure I would not wait if I really cared enough and was prepared for the aggro of oning a football club

[Saint Fan CaM]

SMS I believe you are correct not so sure about Staplewood.All the money we have paid off our mortgage will be lost and then be renting the stadium back at probably the same rate as we are paying now in mortgage repayments

 

 

Not if the new owner(s) get the Stadium at a preferential cost that factors in those repayments. Let's face it, the value of the Stadium in its own right must be close to rock bottom at the moment, so I cannot see a decent offer being turned down in the event of the SLH going into admin.

[Saint Fan CaM]

I still cant see why a person with money will wait for the club to be a L1 side before coming in.As waiting for administration is what that is doing.If i was wealthy enough Im sure I would not wait if I really cared enough and was prepared for the aggro of oning a football club

 

I understand what you are saying, however its not as easy as that - with a fragmented shareholding the present incumbents do not HAVE to sell! This means that even the most ardent buyer will have a problem trying to buy - unless you're Paul Allen and make a hostile bid (but that isn't going to happen to a bottom of the CCC team).

[docker-p]

There are many good people at the club working their socks off to try to steady and ultimately improve our position. Give them your support at least, if you can.

Name them. (apart from the groundsmen, secretaries, general office staff who have no ability to effect change)

[SaintRobbie]

Would Rupert be daft enough to buy the club if we went into admin?

 

Wot good would a football club be if no fans turned up to watch each week?

 

There will always be 13000 diehards - whatever happens.

 

Lowe doesnt put money into the Club, only takes a salary. By remaining he does not have the indignation of losing the value of his shares as he is still in a position to try and regain that loss.

 

He is also convinced he is right and the vast majority of pundits and fans are wrong.

 

He is secure financially through other unconnected businesses, takes a salary that most of us would die for from SFC, and so unless he carries on with SFC until it is either successful or he loses his will to continue, HE MAINTAINS HIS PRIDE AND SECURITY.

 

That is the dangerous thing. Relegation for Lowe last time didnt see him leave. Nor will it this time. He uses the Club as a personal life project and he will tell himself that we all dont understand that this is a longterm plan... it isnt... but he is deluded enough to spin this one later.

 

In sum, in his own tiny mind, Lowe has pride to lose if he leaves, nothing to lose if he stays... except maybe his second wife.

 

He does not and never has given a flying **** for the fans and their own pride.

[aintforever]

There will always be 13000 diehards - whatever happens.

 

I doubt that, I would probably say 7,000 odd. It's hard to judge because it's been decades since we were this rubbish.

[OldNick]

I doubt that, I would probably say 7,000 odd. It's hard to judge because it's been decades since we were this rubbish.

Under 10000 probabl in the region of 8-9 but with a little success 10+ poor results and sub 7k IMO

[Saint Fan CaM]

There will always be 13000 diehards - whatever happens.

 

Lowe doesnt put money into the Club, only takes a salary. By remaining he does not have the indignation of losing the value of his shares as he is still in a position to try and regain that loss.

 

He is also convinced he is right and the vast majority of pundits and fans are wrong.

 

He is secure financially through other unconnected businesses, takes a salary that most of us would die for from SFC, and so unless he carries on with SFC until it is either successful or he loses his will to continue, HE MAINTAINS HIS PRIDE AND SECURITY.

 

That is the dangerous thing. Relegation for Lowe last time didnt see him leave. Nor will it this time. He uses the Club as a personal life project and he will tell himself that we all dont understand that this is a longterm plan... it isnt... but he is deluded enough to spin this one later.

 

In sum, in his own tiny mind, Lowe has pride to lose if he leaves, nothing to lose if he stays... except maybe his second wife.

 

He does not and never has given a flying **** for the fans and their own pride.

 

I think 13K is over-cooking the diehards Robbie - more like 10-11k. But you're right - Lowe is going nowhere unless he is forced out. ST holders can attempt do this by not renewing early.

[Dr Who?]

I remember 7k turning up for Ipwich at home under Branfoot.

[CanadaSaint]

Given the proven potential of the club I'd be shocked if some decent money isn't waiting patiently on the sidelines, and so - much as I dread the prospect of administration - I think it's A) very likely to happen, but B) unlikely to be as bad as many of us fear (even though the economy is very sick). After all, the cost of starting the recovery in League One - and rebuilding fan support - is much lower than it would be in the Championship or the Prem.

 

I would be even more shocked if any of the current lot would have an ounce credibility in the eyes of the administrator or the main debt holders. They are a thoroughly discredited bunch in both football and business terms, and it's clear that they don't - and never will - have the support of the key group for future success - the fans.

 

Much as I feel sick to say this, I can't help but view administration as the new beginning we desperately need.

[Window Cleaner]

Given the proven potential of the club I'd be shocked if some decent money isn't waiting patiently on the sidelines, and so - much as I dread the prospect of administration - I think it's A) very likely to happen, but B) unlikely to be as bad as many of us fear (even though the economy is very sick). After all, the cost of starting the recovery in League One - and rebuilding fan support - is much lower than it would be in the Championship or the Prem.

 

I would be even more shocked if any of the current lot would have an ounce credibility in the eyes of the administrator or the main debt holders. They are a thoroughly discredited bunch in both football and business terms, and it's clear that they don't - and never will - have the support of the key group for future success - the fans.

 

Much as I feel sick to say this, I can't help but view administration as the new beginning we desperately need.

 

 

Having said that haven't Adams just been bought out of administration by the same bloke who bought them out of administration a year or so ago ?.

Whoever guarantees the best deal for the creditors and promises to keep the most jobs is the winner, be it Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa.

[rallyboy]

It has just dawned on me, and you lot are going to have egg on your faces come May.

 

Rupert has been right all along and you can argue all you want BUT he knows best, he is an expert.

 

And when he goes and explains to the league how the table is wrong and he is right, and the authorities have to accept that he is correct again and we are allowed to stay up, well, what are you going to say then??!!

Believe in Rupert.

There is no elephant in the room.

[EastleighSoulBoy]

Having said that haven't Adams just been bought out of administration by the same bloke who bought them out of administration a year or so ago ?.

Whoever guarantees the best deal for the creditors and promises to keep the most jobs is the winner, be it Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa.

 

You're right, but I had to giggle at the thought of a 'discussion' between the two you mentioned.

[aintforever]

Having said that haven't Adams just been bought out of administration by the same bloke who bought them out of administration a year or so ago ?.

Whoever guarantees the best deal for the creditors and promises to keep the most jobs is the winner, be it Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa.

 

Isn't it upto the administrator to decide who is best placed to take the company forward and pay off the debts?

 

Surely if the fans make is blatantly clear that income would be significantly reduced should Lowe and Wilde own the club, the administrator would have to favour a rival bid? Plus they are both proven failures. How can any creditors possibly be in favour of Relegation Rupert, especially if crowds/income is halved?

 

The administrator wont care if it's Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa, but surely it must care about the company's future income?

[SaintRobbie]

I think we've reached the diehards limits at home - about 13000. Mind you I suspect you're all right as I havent subtracted the away supporters and ST holders who are regularly staying away.

 

OK I'd go with 9-10000 diehards.

 

Makes me even more worried now though.

[Gemmel]

I concur with this. There is no reason to fear administration - change can be very good if managed properly. This is not the club I supported as a boy - I want to see it return - but that will not happen with Lowe/Wilde at the helm.

 

There is every reason to fear administration. It's the first time ever, but 19canteens post is spot on. You think that admin will solve all of our problems, but i gurantee it will create more than it solves......if indeed we ever come out of it.

[dubai_phil]

I still cant see why a person with money will wait for the club to be a L1 side before coming in.As waiting for administration is what that is doing.If i was wealthy enough Im sure I would not wait if I really cared enough and was prepared for the aggro of oning a football club

 

They will if they don't want to pay for the shares.

 

The point is always about the Return on ANY investment.

 

Shares at zero or near enough reduces the capital cost but the O/D and the mrtgage still exist, and the chance of a return to the golden land of PL TV money is further away

 

It is a balance between at what point the management and players make us a dead cert for L1 versus how quick an investor can get their money back.

 

As of this last result, IMHO I don't think ANYONE could save us this season which makes admin more likely but also means investment less likely even AFTER admin which to me says - make the most of now because it will get a LOT worse

 

F**k I hope I am wrong but

[CanadaSaint]

Isn't it upto the administrator to decide who is best placed to take the company forward and pay off the debts?

 

Surely if the fans make is blatantly clear that income would be significantly reduced should Lowe and Wilde own the club, the administrator would have to favour a rival bid? Plus they are both proven failures. How can any creditors possibly be in favour of Relegation Rupert, especially if crowds/income is halved?

 

The administrator wont care if it's Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa, but surely it must care about the company's future income?

 

That's how I think it works, and I believe the administrators are obligated to consult with the debt holders who have a vested interest in the option chosen.

 

If the fans don't want Lowe they would have to make it clear that recovery won't happen if he's still around. This is a unique power that football fans have compared with the customers of normal trading entities.

[supaimpy_returns]

depends which or what goes into admin surely? The Football Club is only a part of the PLC, hence two chairmen?

[JustMike]

Exactly my understanding, however, Lowe and his supporters and Crouch and his will have equal opportunity to make a bid for the club as any other investors / bargain hunters. Whilst, the administrator will not share confidentail issues with any of the bidders neither will they pamber to the wishes of the fans. They will act purely in the best interests of the creditors and do their best for the employees. My understanding (if correct) is that if the bids/proposals don't meet the requirements of the creditors or not in their best interests as deemed by the Administrator the club will not be sold as a going concern and broken up to raise as much cash as possible to pay of the debts. It is entirely, possible as well that a buyer(s) will only want to bid for parts of the club i.e. Staplewood/Jacksons Farms/ Stadium (Long term future redevelopement to be bought on the cheap and mothballed).

 

Personally, I remain very very concerned that fans simply view Administration as a get out of jail free card to get rid of Lowe and start again less 10points. The reality is a whole lot more serious and hopefully I am not over dramatising the situtaion to say that it could easily be the end of the line like Woolworths, Lehmans. Bears Stearns, MFI, etc. In fact I suggest the chances are no better than 50/50. If you were a potential buyer even one with deep pockets to buy the club tomorrow from administration would be a very risky proposition and you would need to some how syndicate that risk by dare I say it, shareholders.

 

I'm no expert in these matters and if my understanding of the facts of what could happen are wrong then please correct me but either way I think its important everyone is fully aware of the likely scenarios. Today's trading environment is whole lot different than the more recent examples of clubs going into administration and regardless of Lowe the prospect of hitting the club in pocket through protest coould have far more dire consquences. In fact remove Lowe now and without an investor the fate of this club will be in the hands of the accountants and that won't be pretty especially if HMRC are involved.

 

We may not like it but sometimes dependent on external influences the devil you know is whole lot more nicer than the one you're about to become acquainted with. A lot of you champion Crouch and Corbett as the fans choice people who understand them, a friend no less. On the other hand Lowe and Wilde are seen as untrusted evil collaborators, only interested in themelves, hated and despised like proverbial skates. All I can say never has it been so true to 'Keep your friends close but your enemies closer still'. Lowe will be a pussycat compared to Administrators.

 

United we MUST Stand - Divided we WILL fall and on the toss of a coin maybe for good.

 

oh ffs are you still here posting yet more carp?

 

What part of "whilst Lowe is here we will never be united" dont you understand? HE is the reason we are here, but if you knew anything or cared about this club then you'd know that already!

[Nineteen Canteen]

oh ffs are you still here posting yet more carp?

 

What part of "whilst Lowe is here we will never be united" dont you understand? HE is the reason we are here, but if you knew anything or cared about this club then you'd know that already!

 

Mike, I would actually be interested in your opinions with regard to the potenial scenarios administration could bring to this club without reference to clubs that have gone into administartion in the past unless we you use the early 80's as a time of equal economic downturn as we find today. You could use Aldershot as an example if you wish.

 

I'm afraid Lowe is the best of a bad bunch but one who for the time being appears at least to have Barclays on board and is best positioned to save us. I am convinced if we simply changed boardroom personnel now simply out of blind hate the Bank will not look at all favourably on that change unless the debt is repaid.

 

The fact I still post on this forum is because I care about it passionately and I'm mindful of the potential risks involved that administration could bring. Therefore, I put up with the barrage of abuse and wild accusations to reiterate that the fans who stay away simply because of Lowe or only attend away games are to variable degrees culpable in jeopardising the future of this club as Lowe, Crouch, Wilde, Hone, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all.

 

To be honest you and other posters with similar styles can keep swearing at me, dismissing me, poking fun or ignoring my views but the issues and risks remain and it would be could to talk about them at least.

 

Sticking your fingers in your ears and talking in a loud voice won't make these genuine concerns go away. The fans need to get back to supporting the club if their personal circumstances allow as it obviously and painfully needs the money but calling for ST holders not to renew then you may as well turn of the club's life support machine and start praying because any power the supporters had would be gone as soon as the Adminstrator walks into reception.

 

A few years ago things may have been different but today a football club going to the wall could be just another example of the gravity of the global economy and how risk averse banks have become. Could even use Saints as an example a warning bell to other clubs that their 'lifestyle' cannot be supported and changes need to be made to the way they operate financially.

 

I genuinely hope you can give administration some thought and outline how you see it panning out. You never know you might actually convince me that I am worrying over nothing and believe me that would be appreciated.

[Nineteen Canteen]

That's how I think it works, and I believe the administrators are obligated to consult with the debt holders who have a vested interest in the option chosen.

 

If the fans don't want Lowe they would have to make it clear that recovery won't happen if he's still around. This is a unique power that football fans have compared with the customers of normal trading entities.

 

That said if the debtors are repaid in full then they are not going to be concerned and nor will the administrators if it's Lowe, Crouch or An Other as the role of the Administrator would have been fulfilled. If the debt isn't repaid and in the absence of new investors they will look at possible bidders such as Lowe or Crouch and their respective supporters and neither may fulfill the debtors/administrators mandate and a sale of assets is instructed to raise revenue to repay the debt and wind up the club.

 

I am no expert in these matters just trying to think through the various outcomes logically without trying to pin hopes on some kind of security blanket that is unlikely to exist. IMO fans will have no impact on the working methods of the administrator and the fact we today have such a weak fanbase may already be working against us. Derby County are an excellent example of the importance of support through the bad times as ultimately it makes the club a more attractive proposition. We are already damaging our saleability IMO should the worse happen and even if it doesn't.

[CanadaSaint]

Nineteen, I actually appreciate most of your posts even though I don't share a number of your perspectives.

 

I cannot see any situation in which "the debtors are repaid in full". The stadium debt is a long term repayment proposition for anyone except the Paul Allens of this world, especially as a considerable sum needs to be devoted to rebuilding the club's playing and non-playing staff infrastructure.

 

Whoever buys us out of administration will need to satisfy the administrator, and that also means anyone whose loan financing, in whatever form, carries forward into the new ownership.

 

That's why I'm saying that the administrator will bear in mind Lowe's abject inability to solidify from a position of strength (the post Cup Final year), his inability to hire capable management to drive a return to the Prem (with parachute money to play with), his ludicrous experiments of various kinds, and - perhaps especially - the utter contempt the fans have for him.

 

The administrator and the main debt holders will be looking for someone with the skill and funding to rebuild this club from Division One. Rupert clearly has neither, and I think - and hope - that he will be quickly dismissed.

 

If that is to happen the fans must leave no room for doubt that he is unacceptable to them, and yet show how much they care for the club.

 

So (easy for me to say from 4500 miles away and with no season ticket) that means supporting the team, protesting the ownership and understanding that there's a time for each.

 

Another couple of thoughts after reflection:

 

I completely agree that if a club such as ours goes into admin it will sound a "warning bell to other clubs that their 'lifestyle' cannot be supported and changes need to be made to the way they operate financially." That message is desperately needed because UK football cannot survive in its current form. In many ways it's a microcosm of what has happened to the UK economy as a whole.

 

Please don't cite Aldershot or Bournemouth as examples of the consequences of administration. The potential in this club is major, with a new (expandable) ground, development space around it, a huge catchment area, and a demonstrated ability to attract crowds of 30,000+ week in, week out.

Edited 16 February, 2009 by CanadaSaint
Further thoughts

[Tamesaint]

Mike, I would actually be interested in your opinions with regard to the potenial scenarios administration could bring to this club without reference to clubs that have gone into administartion in the past unless we you use the early 80's as a time of equal economic downturn as we find today. You could use Aldershot as an example if you wish.

 

I'm afraid Lowe is the best of a bad bunch but one who for the time being appears at least to have Barclays on board and is best positioned to save us. I am convinced if we simply changed boardroom personnel now simply out of blind hate the Bank will not look at all favourably on that change unless the debt is repaid.

 

The fact I still post on this forum is because I care about it passionately and I'm mindful of the potential risks involved that administration could bring. Therefore, I put up with the barrage of abuse and wild accusations to reiterate that the fans who stay away simply because of Lowe or only attend away games are to variable degrees culpable in jeopardising the future of this club as Lowe, Crouch, Wilde, Hone, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all.

 

To be honest you and other posters with similar styles can keep swearing at me, dismissing me, poking fun or ignoring my views but the issues and risks remain and it would be could to talk about them at least.

 

Sticking your fingers in your ears and talking in a loud voice won't make these genuine concerns go away. The fans need to get back to supporting the club if their personal circumstances allow as it obviously and painfully needs the money but calling for ST holders not to renew then you may as well turn of the club's life support machine and start praying because any power the supporters had would be gone as soon as the Adminstrator walks into reception.

 

A few years ago things may have been different but today a football club going to the wall could be just another example of the gravity of the global economy and how risk averse banks have become. Could even use Saints as an example a warning bell to other clubs that their 'lifestyle' cannot be supported and changes need to be made to the way they operate financially.

 

I genuinely hope you can give administration some thought and outline how you see it panning out. You never know you might actually convince me that I am worrying over nothing and believe me that would be appreciated.

 

 

 

I agree with a lot of what you say Nineteen. Administration is not the "Get out of Jail free" card that some like to think. Drawing comparisons with Aldershot and Bournemouth is not in my opinion that realistic but administration would set this club back many, many years. It should not be welcomed.

 

However, why on earth do you still push the idea that Lowe and his cabal are the only option?? Are you really saying that he is the only person that Barclays Bank would trust with running this club?? The man who is likely to oversee two relegations in his last 3 years at the club?? If anything, I would suspect that Barclays will state that they will only continue to support this club if Lowe is removed!! They can surely see that the "revolutionary coaching plan" is ending up the same way as his other wacky ideas. Failed leaders are not welcomed by banks.

 

Oh and by the way ... it is not debtors who you need to pay off. It is creditors. Debtors are the people who owe money to you.

[OldNick]

 

Please don't cite Aldershot or Bournemouth as examples of the consequences of administration. The potential in this club is major, with a new (expandable) ground, development space around it, a huge catchment area, and a demonstrated ability to attract crowds of 30,000+ week in, week out.

The potential of the club is no more than a dozen or so more clubs in the country.If we go into admiistration and are L1 the time to get us back into position to get to the PL will be another thing to put off an investor.

Sheffield United last game last season under LC 32000

Manchester United FA cup under RL 32000.

Whoever is in charge and the games are glamourous or important fans will turn up.

I defy any fan who tells me if we were in the top 2 that the crowds at SMS would be under 25k now.

[JustMike]

Mike, I would actually be interested in your opinions with regard to the potenial scenarios administration could bring to this club without reference to clubs that have gone into administartion in the past unless we you use the early 80's as a time of equal economic downturn as we find today. You could use Aldershot as an example if you wish.

 

No-one is entirely sure what result administration would bring, but my guess is that we would get offers to buy the club and those offers be accepted by the administrators, something which RL would not do unless it was for ridiculous money. And using Aldershot has an example is pointless, 2 very different clubs both in size and stature

 

I'm afraid Lowe is the best of a bad bunch but one who for the time being appears at least to have Barclays on board and is best positioned to save us. I am convinced if we simply changed boardroom personnel now simply out of blind hate the Bank will not look at all favourably on that change unless the debt is repaid.

 

I don’t agree with you on this, where is your proof that he is “the best of a bad bunch”? LC had the backing of Barclays and was not here for any real length of time to be shown as being a bad bunch. I do however agree with you on the fact that if we changed boardroom personnel now without any real contingency plan, be it from LC or whoever then I do believe we would lose that already fragile support from the bank.

 

The fact I still post on this forum is because I care about it passionately and I'm mindful of the potential risks involved that administration could bring. Therefore, I put up with the barrage of abuse and wild accusations to reiterate that the fans who stay away simply because of Lowe or only attend away games are to variable degrees culpable in jeopardising the future of this club as Lowe, Crouch, Wilde, Hone, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all.

 

To be honest you and other posters with similar styles can keep swearing at me, dismissing me, poking fun or ignoring my views but the issues and risks remain and it would be could to talk about them at least.

 

I think that people on here poke fun etc at you because of the way you go about putting your views across, you moan at people for dismissing what you say and yet you do the very same thing yourself. So if you want to talk about your views and potential risks then please do so in a non detrimental way.

 

Sticking your fingers in your ears and talking in a loud voice won't make these genuine concerns go away. The fans need to get back to supporting the club if their personal circumstances allow as it obviously and painfully needs the money but calling for ST holders not to renew then you may as well turn of the club's life support machine and start praying because any power the supporters had would be gone as soon as the Adminstrator walks into reception.

 

As I said before, I do believe if admin happened then we would get a buyer, as it would be out of RL et al‘s hands, no longer would they demand the price per share.

 

A few years ago things may have been different but today a football club going to the wall could be just another example of the gravity of the global economy and how risk averse banks have become. Could even use Saints as an example a warning bell to other clubs that their 'lifestyle' cannot be supported and changes need to be made to the way they operate financially.

 

This club has been on a downward spiral since RL refused to back WGS and a load of mistakes since then that he still, even after JP has not learnt from. That is why we are going to the wall. The economic mess has undoubtedly had an effect not just on the club but fans too. Why should they pay £££ every week to go to SMS to watch the same thing happening week in week out whilst their gas and electric bills go through the roof. At least if the team were doing ok and we had a manager who knew what he was doing then at least the ‘entertainment’ factor would be there. And no, I’m not saying we should only go when we’re winning but we are not being entertained. RL should have learnt from SG and SW, he should have learnt from JP but he didn’t, it is his fault we are in this mess and he just takes backward or sideways steps. Fans have every right to vote with their feet.

 

I genuinely hope you can give administration some thought and outline how you see it panning out. You never know you might actually convince me that I am worrying over nothing and believe me that would be appreciated.

 

Ultimately, no-one wants this mess, no-one wants to stay away and if there was any other way to sort everything out then please tell us. We will go down this season, which will lead to administration and a -10 (at least) start to next season. At least if we did it now, then the points loss would apply to the current season, which as i said before, is lost already.

[Clapham Saint]

I agree with a lot of what you say Nineteen. Administration is not the "Get out of Jail free" card that some like to think. Drawing comparisons with Aldershot and Bournemouth is not in my opinion that realistic but administration would set this club back many, many years. It should not be welcomed.

 

However, why on earth do you still push the idea that Lowe and his cabal are the only option?? Are you really saying that he is the only person that Barclays Bank would trust with running this club?? The man who is likely to oversee two relegations in his last 3 years at the club?? If anything, I would suspect that Barclays will state that they will only continue to support this club if Lowe is removed!! They can surely see that the "revolutionary coaching plan" is ending up the same way as his other wacky ideas. Failed leaders are not welcomed by banks.

 

Oh and by the way ... it is not debtors who you need to pay off. It is creditors. Debtors are the people who owe money to you.

 

Guys, having read most of the posts on thios threat there is one thing that a few people seem to missunderstand.

 

When an administrator is appointed he isn't "working for the Bank" as most people seem to think. This used to be the case with a Receivership however administration is actually quite different.

 

Whe an administrator is appointed he has a responsibility to ALL creditors. One of those creditors is the bank, however he is just as accountable to the miilkman.

 

Barclays have no say in who the administrator sells the company's assets to and so the question of who can be trusted to run the business in the future is on no relevance to him what so ever. The administrator is obliged to raise as much money as possible for the benefit of all creditors.

 

The assets of the company (which is different fromt eh "club" are principally

 

The "trade". i.e the club

Player registrations

SMS

Jacksons Farm

Staplewood

 

The administrator will look to get teh most money that he can (in total) for all of these assets.

 

In practical terms it is likely that the most money would be raised by selling the club as the club is worth more to a potential purchaser if it still has players etc. However if more money can be raised by selling off the players one by one then this is what the administrator will do.

 

I'm not saying that sticking with Lowe is the only option however going into administration is a big BIG risk.

 

(Yes I do do this for a living).

 

CS

[broncoboy]

I can relate to this post. Sets out my fears of Administration. I am not a Lowe supporter, he is devisive, arrogant and totally out of touch with the supporters. I do not see Crouch as the answer either.

 

 

Blind hatred for Lowe will add to destroying this club and I for one do not think that is the answer.

 

Our hatred is not blind its based on his appalling record in charge of this club

 

You wish an example how about his"total Football revolution" of this season.

 

One win at home drove the crowds away resulting in disaster on and off the pitch.

[NickG]

we need a good takeover rumour!

 

Think we have all lost optimism on and off the pitch.

[JohnnyFartPants]

Nope, he was having a discussion with Mark Dennis & Dennis was getting quite worked up that if we went in to admin Rupert would buy the club on the cheap.

That's when D.A said the fans wouldn't let it happen and then made that comment.

 

We can stop it happening. Brilliant.

 

Umm, how?

[Nineteen Canteen]

I can relate to this post. Sets out my fears of Administration. I am not a Lowe supporter, he is devisive, arrogant and totally out of touch with the supporters. I do not see Crouch as the answer either.

 

 

Blind hatred for Lowe will add to destroying this club and I for one do not think that is the answer.

 

Our hatred is not blind its based on his appalling record in charge of this club

 

You wish an example how about his"total Football revolution" of this season.

 

One win at home drove the crowds away resulting in disaster on and off the pitch.[/QUOTE]

 

Sorry but your blind hatred does not manifest itself in your analysis but more likely perception that crowd numbers have been driven away since our solitary home win. Granted crowd numbers are poor and reflect on the fans fickle nature and perception of the club but actually they have increased since the home win!!!!!

 

30/9 Norwich 14,480

 

Prior to 30/9 P4 avg attendance 16,076

 

Post 30/9 P10 avg 17,454

 

Even if you take out the Forest game which may skew the number because of the special promotions you still get an avg of 16,440.

 

I have not included the last game against Sheff Utd as I don't have the number to hand and plus half the country was shut down with the worst snow for 18 years but I suspect the numbers will still stack up that we have a loyal fan base of between 12- 14k minimum and they will be unshaken in their desire to support the team game in game out.

 

In fact ignoring our last home game we have only recorded one gate below the Norwich game. Another evening KO v Coventry 14,226. Traditionally the first home game of the season is usually very strong last season it was c25k for the Palace game and this season 18,925 watched Birmingham.

 

Did the Lowe factor account solely for a drop in attendances of c.6k because subsequently they have held up ok considering that for Pearson's first game in charge v. Plymouth I can remember the crowd being as sparsely populated as our last home game and no more than c.14k. Seems to me the rot had set in under Crouch and those before him and those who attend games now are in it simply because they support the club and nothing will make them veer from that course regardless what the vocal minority will have us believe. Some have already given up on protests concerned about what reception they will get from these loyal fans. Surprising it took so long for the penny to drop.

 

Protest is futile without an alternative and campaigning for Lowe's removal when you don't know what you'll get in return is a bizarre notion to many.

[saintjay77]

That's how I think it works, and I believe the administrators are obligated to consult with the debt holders who have a vested interest in the option chosen.

 

If the fans don't want Lowe they would have to make it clear that recovery won't happen if he's still around. This is a unique power that football fans have compared with the customers of normal trading entities.

 

I dont think the fans of a football club are that much different to the customers of say Woolies. When the administrators were called in for Woolies no doubt they tried to sell the company but someone would have looked at the out goings compared to the incomings and decided on weather it was a risk worth taking.

 

Anyone looking to buy us will no doubt look at the worst case scenario and decide on if they can cover the cost of running the club when times are bad before they will work out if they can make any profit on buying us.

 

So right now we have a core fan base of about 10k, that is not enough to cover the costs and we will continue to hemerage money. history tells us that even when we got rid of RL last time there was not a flood of fans coming back to give us a core fan base of anything more than breaking even.

 

So with a week team we have a week following whilst paying out for prem facilites. IMO it doesnt look like it will attract many people.

 

Leeds managed to keep a good following even when times got really tough so it was always worth buying even with the massive points deductions. As long as that fan base stays loyal there is enough money coming in to keep the club afloat. from there they can work on a plan to get them back up through the league and in time I think they will do it.

 

What chance do we have of coming back from administration?

[Window Cleaner]

Isn't it upto the administrator to decide who is best placed to take the company forward and pay off the debts?

 

Surely if the fans make is blatantly clear that income would be significantly reduced should Lowe and Wilde own the club, the administrator would have to favour a rival bid? Plus they are both proven failures. How can any creditors possibly be in favour of Relegation Rupert, especially if crowds/income is halved?

 

The administrator wont care if it's Genghis Khan or Mother Theresa, but surely it must care about the company's future income?

 

As far as I know once in company comes out of administration by way of a CVA debts don't get paid off any more.If they all take whatever is offered that's it, there isn't any more paying off,because the original entity is deceased and has been bought out by a new entity. I think the loan on the stadium would be ongoing but that's all. All the rest agree to take whatever is on offer and call it quits.What matters is how much the new entity is prepared to pay to old creditors, if the sum is acceptable to all because they believe it's the best they'll get that's it.

[Window Cleaner]

We can stop it happening. Brilliant.

 

Umm, how?

 

 

 

No you can't, unless the fans are creditors (and you won't be) you have no say whatsoever in the matter.

Fans might not go to games in the future but on the credit front you're done for.

[saint1977]

Nineteen, I actually appreciate most of your posts even though I don't share a number of your perspectives.

 

I cannot see any situation in which "the debtors are repaid in full". The stadium debt is a long term repayment proposition for anyone except the Paul Allens of this world, especially as a considerable sum needs to be devoted to rebuilding the club's playing and non-playing staff infrastructure.

 

Whoever buys us out of administration will need to satisfy the administrator, and that also means anyone whose loan financing, in whatever form, carries forward into the new ownership.

 

That's why I'm saying that the administrator will bear in mind Lowe's abject inability to solidify from a position of strength (the post Cup Final year), his inability to hire capable management to drive a return to the Prem (with parachute money to play with), his ludicrous experiments of various kinds, and - perhaps especially - the utter contempt the fans have for him.

 

The administrator and the main debt holders will be looking for someone with the skill and funding to rebuild this club from Division One. Rupert clearly has neither, and I think - and hope - that he will be quickly dismissed.

 

If that is to happen the fans must leave no room for doubt that he is unacceptable to them, and yet show how much they care for the club.

 

So (easy for me to say from 4500 miles away and with no season ticket) that means supporting the team, protesting the ownership and understanding that there's a time for each.

 

Another couple of thoughts after reflection:

 

I completely agree that if a club such as ours goes into admin it will sound a "warning bell to other clubs that their 'lifestyle' cannot be supported and changes need to be made to the way they operate financially." That message is desperately needed because UK football cannot survive in its current form. In many ways it's a microcosm of what has happened to the UK economy as a whole.

 

Please don't cite Aldershot or Bournemouth as examples of the consequences of administration. The potential in this club is major, with a new (expandable) ground, development space around it, a huge catchment area, and a demonstrated ability to attract crowds of 30,000+ week in, week out.

 

This and Tamesaint's post below it are excellent. Actually, I do agree with C19 that administration is not something to be wished for at all and it's good to see him posting in a way that inspires proper debate rather than winding certain posters up. Long may it continue. I do disagree that Lowe is the best option post-admin - he's better than Wilde or Askham granted but then that would go for everyone on this forum! I'd like to see a new approach, not the Crouch/LM crowd either. Lowe's track record since 2003 would have got him sacked from every major company in the land (excluding the banks...) and his credibility with any stakeholders, let alone the fans, is zero.

 

Football is heading for big problems though, the gap between the PL and CCC is now a Grand Canyon and it isn't healthy, unless of course UEFA/FIFA want to reduce major football to just a Champions League across W.Europe of just 15 or so clubs.

[saint1977]

No you can't, unless the fans are creditors (and you won't be) you have no say whatsoever in the matter.

Fans might not go to games in the future but on the credit front you're done for.

 

This is correct in a direct sense but do remember that a lot of businesses put money into the club that are fans. Fullers Group, Draper Tools - if this dried up the club would really be in trouble. They are not going to want to anger customers for their products by tarnishing themselves with a poor regime. Look at the trouble Askham had finding Dimplex eventually in 1993/4 - we nearly began the season without a sponsor as a PL club because Askham and co had no credibility and business didn't want to be associated with the Branfoot turmoil and a regime that wouldn't make changes and rewarded failure with 3 year contracts.

[Nineteen Canteen]

This and Tamesaint's post below it are excellent. Actually, I do agree with C19 that administration is not something to be wished for at all and it's good to see him posting in a way that inspires proper debate rather than winding certain posters up. Long may it continue. I do disagree that Lowe is the best option post-admin - he's better than Wilde or Askham granted but then that would go for everyone on this forum! I'd like to see a new approach, not the Crouch/LM crowd either. Lowe's track record since 2003 would have got him sacked from every major company in the land (excluding the banks...) and his credibility with any stakeholders, let alone the fans, is zero.

 

Football is heading for big problems though, the gap between the PL and CCC is now a Grand Canyon and it isn't healthy, unless of course UEFA/FIFA want to reduce major football to just a Champions League across W.Europe of just 15 or so clubs.

 

Saint1977 firstly can I point out that I do not set out to deliberately wind up anybody I just post my views in the hope of inspiring proper debate and usually get told to f off or some other disparaging tone because its easier for people to respond in that manner than debate the points I raise. My views haven't changed because the situation remains grave and some supporters at times are their own worst enemy IMO. If other posters want to dish out the abuse then sometimes what is good for the goose... and all that.

 

I am surprised no one has latched on to Clapham Saint's excellent piece above about the realities of administration and the role of the Administrator. Frankly if the choice is Lowe or Administration which surely it will be as the creditors (Thank you Tame btw, I am aware of the difference but I think I must have had a senior moment) are unlikely to draw comfort from some emergency team being cobbled together to takeover in the boardroom then I would prefer to risk our fortunes on Lowe than risk losing the club altogether under Administration. This is my major issue with the protests as its simply remove Lowe and invoke Administration rather than some Crouch led takeover.

 

Like you I am not a fan of any of the main protaganists a bit like our political leaders and policies but you need to vote and back somebody otherwise I believe you forego your right to an opinion which many are also happy to do of course. I back Lowe today because what other option is there? Crouch and his fan friendly rhetoric and reliance on a football dinosaur like McMenemy who IMO has had more damaging influence over the club and team than Lowe himself. Following their own personal agenda for personal gain is surely a complaint that can be levelled at all 3 but perhaps none more so than McMenemy IMO.

 

Crouch told us he had secured funding with the bank but he also told us a lot of other things that never materialised. I'm sure Lowe are Wilde are working hard to protect their own interests but doesn't that correspond with our own desire to avoid the serious risks of administration and sometimes having large shareholders in charge who risk losing everything if they get it badly wrong can work to your advantage and/or satisfaction.

 

If Lowe can pull the rabbit out of the hat this season and maintain our financial security for another season and CCC survival then in the absence of a new investor it is unlikely the creditors or the middle ground of the fanbase will want him removed. If he fails in these objectives and in the absence of investment be it from a preferable new source or Crouch then its over and we are in the gods and we could be the first club with a big profile to be allowed to go to the wall for the reasons you mention.

 

So do I want a new investor with £50m - £100m to takeover, yes of course. Is that likely over the next 2 years? No it isn't. We talk about Lowe's credibility being zero but he has tried to be innovative and his policy of financial prudence post 2003 looks today like a very sensible course of action and one of which had we followed we would unlikely to be in this mess. In fact your assessment of his credibility doesn't sit well with the canyon of wealth between the PL and CCC and my guess is that his determination to protect the club financially is actually something the stakeholders will welcome if it isn't necessarily deemed a fan friendly policy at this time but look whwre that got us. Bottom line fan friendly policy is the Roman Abramovich policy of spend spend spend and for a club our size that will never work without unconditional investment.

 

If banks can fail in todays world are we likely to become the first government funded club? At the moment its seems to be a straight choice Lowe or Crouch and I believe Lowe has the stronger stomach for what lies ahead and won't worry about the abuse whereas Crouch would just go down the land of false promises until the land ran out.

[saint63]

Saint1977 firstly can I point out that I do not set out to deliberately wind up anybody I just post my views in the hope of inspiring proper debate and usually get told to f off or some other disparaging tone because its easier for people to respond in that manner than debate the points I raise. My views haven't changed because the situation remains grave and some supporters at times are their own worst enemy IMO. If other posters want to dish out the abuse then sometimes what is good for the goose... and all that.

 

I am surprised no one has latched on to Clapham Saint's excellent piece above about the realities of administration and the role of the Administrator. Frankly if the choice is Lowe or Administration which surely it will be as the creditors (Thank you Tame btw, I am aware of the difference but I think I must have had a senior moment) are unlikely to draw comfort from some emergency team being cobbled together to takeover in the boardroom then I would prefer to risk our fortunes on Lowe than risk losing the club altogether under Administration. This is my major issue with the protests as its simply remove Lowe and invoke Administration rather than some Crouch led takeover.

 

Like you I am not a fan of any of the main protaganists a bit like our political leaders and policies but you need to vote and back somebody otherwise I believe you forego your right to an opinion which many are also happy to do of course. I back Lowe today because what other option is there? Crouch and his fan friendly rhetoric and reliance on a football dinosaur like McMenemy who IMO has had more damaging influence over the club and team than Lowe himself. Following their own personal agenda for personal gain is surely a complaint that can be levelled at all 3 but perhaps none more so than McMenemy IMO.

 

Crouch told us he had secured funding with the bank but he also told us a lot of other things that never materialised. I'm sure Lowe are Wilde are working hard to protect their own interests but doesn't that correspond with our own desire to avoid the serious risks of administration and sometimes having large shareholders in charge who risk losing everything if they get it badly wrong can work to your advantage and/or satisfaction.

 

If Lowe can pull the rabbit out of the hat this season and maintain our financial security for another season and CCC survival then in the absence of a new investor it is unlikely the creditors or the middle ground of the fanbase will want him removed. If he fails in these objectives and in the absence of investment be it from a preferable new source or Crouch then its over and we are in the gods and we could be the first club with a big profile to be allowed to go to the wall for the reasons you mention.

 

So do I want a new investor with £50m - £100m to takeover, yes of course. Is that likely over the next 2 years? No it isn't. We talk about Lowe's credibility being zero but he has tried to be innovative and his policy of financial prudence post 2003 looks today like a very sensible course of action and one of which had we followed we would unlikely to be in this mess. In fact your assessment of his credibility doesn't sit well with the canyon of wealth between the PL and CCC and my guess is that his determination to protect the club financially is actually something the stakeholders will welcome if it isn't necessarily deemed a fan friendly policy at this time but look whwre that got us. Bottom line fan friendly policy is the Roman Abramovich policy of spend spend spend and for a club our size that will never work without unconditional investment.

 

If banks can fail in todays world are we likely to become the first government funded club? At the moment its seems to be a straight choice Lowe or Crouch and I believe Lowe has the stronger stomach for what lies ahead and won't worry about the abuse whereas Crouch would just go down the land of false promises until the land ran out.

 

 

There is a great difference between having a 'stronger stomach' and an inability to understand the facts of the situation that he (Lowe) has greatly exascerbated this season. He is a poor and failed leader - he is one dimensional and has clearly not understood that other factors - especially the attitude of the supporters - must be included in to any business plan for the club. I note that the share price has dropped again today. When is his toy going to be our club again?

[hypochondriac]

I would love to know who Sundance is. I bet the admin know.

[saint_stevo]

Maybe Anthony Pulis is going to get a run

[saint_stevo]

I would love to know who Sundance is. I bet the admin know.

 

Marc Jackson.

 

HTH

[hypochondriac]

Marc Jackson.

 

HTH

 

Much too pompous for old Marc. Plus there has been no discussion about toner.

[Wade Garrett]

Much too pompous for old Marc. Plus there has been no discussion about toner.

 

Grammar and spelling too good as well.

[hypochondriac]

Grammar and spelling too good as well.

 

Try getting Sundance agitated and watch that fall apart!

[um pahars]

Maybe Anthony Pulis is going to get a run

 

You wish;)

 

BTW you are coming to my boozer to stand your rounds.

[um pahars]

Try getting Sundance agitated and watch that fall apart!

 

I can remember him as Sundance, can vaguely remember his Flashman incarnation, but don't remember his others (The Bear??? and others).

 

I've still got him down as Corp Ho trolling, just don't ask me how I know;).

[Weston Saint]

I can remember him as Sundance, can vaguely remember his Flashman incarnation, but don't remember his others (The Bear??? and others).

 

I've still got him down as Corp Ho trolling, just don't ask me how I know;).

 

Nah, Corp Ho was a Pompey supporter wasn't he? Assuming we are talking about Nineteen Canteen he is a Saints supporter with a season ticket, just don't ask me how I know