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Lighthouse

By Lighthouse
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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted

Doesn’t look like there’s much stopping this rebel movement, with Russia seemingly doing little to continue propping up the Assad regime. Looks like Damascus could fall some time in the next week.

Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 20:34, hypochondriac said:

Doubt they will care if they are winning the war. 

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I think they will. Russian leaders have always survived on a projection of absolute power. If they get driven out of Syria by what basically amounts to a malitia with a load of AK47s and Toyotas, separatists all over their sphere of influence will take note.

aintforever

aintforever

Posted
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 20:34, hypochondriac said:

Doubt they will care if they are winning the war. 

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Depends what they win and at what cost. The below copied from Reddit:

In the past 2-3 years they've  

  • caused Sweden and Finland to join NATO  

  • lost most of Armenia influence, Kazakhstan playing their own game and now unrest in Georgia  

  • about to lose Syria with Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base (established by Soviets in 1971, the only port other than Black Sea ones for Mediterranean operations including submarines)   

  • lost/used up most of their massive Soviet heavy weapons stocks  

  • lost most of weapons exports and influence that goes with that (India turning towards US/France/others), likely permanently   

  • lost half of their hydrocarbon exports (and mostly high margin ones, to Europe) and etc  

  • lost bug chunk of their foreign currency funds (some being given to Ukraine) and wasted a good bit of their gold and other reserves that they painstakingly built on oil/gas profits  

  • their oil/gas profits are likely never going to be as big as before, given the damage to the industry  

  • economy in general slowly going back to 90ies And of course, forever ruined relationship with their once-brothers in Ukraine (once fundamental part of Soviet Union, where a lot of the best Soviet tech was developed and manufactured), caused incredible suffering that will never be forgotten and likely permanently pushed Ukraine into western sphere of influence.  

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 20:51, Lighthouse said:

I think they will. Russian leaders have always survived on a projection of absolute power. If they get driven out of Syria by what basically amounts to a malitia with a load of AK47s and Toyotas, separatists all over their sphere of influence will take note.

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Is that what has happened? Or is it that they are engaged elsewhere and have made a tactical decision not to get involved given they are stretched? 

Colinjb

Colinjb

Posted
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 22:07, hypochondriac said:

Is that what has happened? Or is it that they are engaged elsewhere and have made a tactical decision not to get involved given they are stretched? 

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It would appear to be a well co-ordinated coalition of militias who have a common enemy. 

Either way, if you are stretched in one place......

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 22:09, Colinjb said:

It would appear to be a well co-ordinated coalition of militias who have a common enemy. 

Either way, if you are stretched in one place......

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Ultimately losing face in Syria is the lesser of two evils. They are still advancing in Ukraine. The last thing they are going to do is make major concessions to end the war. It will end eventually but imo it will involve Ukraine having to give up more than they would like. 

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 07/12/2024 at 22:09, Colinjb said:

It would appear to be a well co-ordinated coalition of militias who have a common enemy. 

Either way, if you are stretched in one place......

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Yep. The Syria proxy war has always been a weird one. The opposition have historically been supplied by Turkey, despite parts of it having roots in al-qaeda, and described as terrorists and is now is a right mixed bag. They've managed to get themselves enough arms, and I'd guess encouragement and assistance behind the scenes from somewhere, to chance their arm. Interesting times. 

badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 06:50, egg said:

Yep. The Syria proxy war has always been a weird one. The opposition have historically been supplied by Turkey, despite parts of it having roots in al-qaeda, and described as terrorists and is now is a right mixed bag. They've managed to get themselves enough arms, and I'd guess encouragement and assistance behind the scenes from somewhere, to chance their arm. Interesting times. 

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Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, the 3 main props of the Assad regime, all have their own issues. I suppose we must now wait to find out whether Syrians have simply replaced a murderous despotic Government with a murderous religious one, one civil war for another.

With disparate Islamic groups, some grown out of Al-Queeda, the Alawites fearing retribution for the actions of the Assad family, and large swathes of eastern Syria controlled by the Kurds, this won't get fixed quickly.

  • Like 1
Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 08:55, Baird of the land said:

Funny how al quaeda terrorists are now plucky rebels to western news.

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Every news outlet I’ve seen has been perfectly open about the fact that they’re an Islamist movement with links to Al Qaeda and ISIS. They’re calling them rebels because, in this context, they’re staging a rebellion.

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 09:16, Lighthouse said:

Every news outlet I’ve seen has been perfectly open about the fact that they’re an Islamist movement with links to Al Qaeda and ISIS. They’re calling them rebels because, in this context, they’re staging a rebellion.

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Sure, there open reporting of it, but the point is that there's celebration of a successful uprising by people deemed terrorists, and likely supported / armed by Turkey. This feels like a civil war that's far from over. 

whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 09:22, egg said:

Sure, there open reporting of it, but the point is that there's celebration of a successful uprising by people deemed terrorists, and likely supported / armed by Turkey. This feels like a civil war that's far from over. 

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Who is celebrating? 

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 10:28, badgerx16 said:

Yes.

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Blimey. So Hamas liking rebels taking Damascus, Turkish supported and former al qaeda rebels taking other towns and cities, and Turkey supporting attacks on Kurds in other parts of Syria. What a mess.  

Weston Super Saint

Weston Super Saint

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 09:22, egg said:

Sure, there open reporting of it, but the point is that there's celebration of a successful uprising by people deemed terrorists, and likely supported / armed by Turkey. This feels like a civil war that's far from over. 

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Turkey want rid of 6 million(?) Syrain refugees.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend...

Gloucester Saint

Gloucester Saint

Posted
Posted
  On 08/12/2024 at 06:50, egg said:

Yep. The Syria proxy war has always been a weird one. The opposition have historically been supplied by Turkey, despite parts of it having roots in al-qaeda, and described as terrorists and is now is a right mixed bag. They've managed to get themselves enough arms, and I'd guess encouragement and assistance behind the scenes from somewhere, to chance their arm. Interesting times. 

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Interesting article here, quite a tightrope they’re walking between modernisers, extremists/hardliners and the international community https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo

  • Like 1
sadoldgit

sadoldgit

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 09/12/2024 at 05:48, AlexLaw76 said:

The thousands of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime will probably be home by Xmas.

no doubt 

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What if the new regime are just as bad, if not worse? 

Have you ever tried to imagine what is must have been like to leave everything behind and take your family to another country to escape your war ravaged home?

Apparently some are already returning which is an early Christmas present for you,    no doubt.
 

 

Edited by sadoldgit
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 09/12/2024 at 08:17, Gloucester Saint said:

Interesting article here, quite a tightrope they’re walking between modernisers, extremists/hardliners and the international community https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo

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Thanks. They're a proper mixed bag. You've then got the factions in other parts of the country, and the Kurds. I can foresee all sorts of jockeying for power and policies, and a very long journey to stability. 

  • Like 1
whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted

lol SOG thinking people don’t get the news unless he posts a link.

must be gutted at Hezbollah being incapable of helping Assad. Wonder if he can work out why?

  • Like 2
badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted

Jeremy Bowen on R4 made an interesting point; it is in Israel's interests to have a stable, non-hostile Syrian Government installed, that has good internal security and can effectively police it's borders - the IDF has severely degraded any potential such capability.

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 09:33, badgerx16 said:

Jeremy Bowen on R4 made an interesting point; it is in Israel's interests to have a stable, non-hostile Syrian Government installed, that has good internal security and can effectively police it's borders - the IDF has severely degraded any potential such capability.

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I disagree entirely. In the chaos that ensued following all the 2014 ISIS takeover of Iraq and Syria, Israel came out of it almost unscathed. A civil war between hardcore Sunnis, Turkish backed sepratists, Kurds and Iran backed Shiites suits them just fine as there's nobody organised enough, with enough spare resources, to cause them any real problems. Israel's biggest threat recently came from Hamas, who ruled Gaza with absolute authority and relative stability in the years leading up to 7/10.

  • Like 1
whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 15/12/2024 at 09:33, badgerx16 said:

Jeremy Bowen on R4 made an interesting point; it is in Israel's interests to have a stable, non-hostile Syrian Government installed, that has good internal security and can effectively police it's borders - the IDF has severely degraded any potential such capability.

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So Israel’s fault? Inevitable that will be chaos when a regime in power for so long is overthrown and all the infrastructure gone. 
 

How about appreciating that Israel has been hugely significant in speeding up overthrowing Assad?

Edited by whelk
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 10:04, Lighthouse said:

I disagree entirely. In the chaos that ensued following all the 2014 ISIS takeover of Iraq and Syria, Israel came out of it almost unscathed. A civil war between hardcore Sunnis, Turkish backed sepratists, Kurds and Iran backed Shiites suits them just fine as there's nobody organised enough, with enough spare resources, to cause them any real problems. Israel's biggest threat recently came from Hamas, who ruled Gaza with absolute authority and relative stability in the years leading up to 7/10.

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You consistently write as if Israel is the only middle east state that matters. Syria need stability and security for itself and it's people. Ditto Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians, etc. 

whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 13:36, egg said:

You consistently write as if Israel is the only middle east state that matters. Syria need stability and security for itself and it's people. Ditto Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians, etc. 

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if you want stability and security for your people then suggest the wise thing is not to house people who launch rockets into Israel and talk openly of wiping them from the face of the earth

Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 13:36, egg said:

You consistently write as if Israel is the only middle east state that matters. Syria need stability and security for itself and it's people. Ditto Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians, etc. 

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I was responding to a post about what's best for Israel and their border security, how have you missed the point that badly?

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 16:56, Lighthouse said:

I was responding to a post about what's best for Israel and their border security, how have you missed the point that badly?

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And I was responding to that point, and your perpetually blinkered view. It's not all about Israel. 

  • Haha 1
hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 13:36, egg said:

You consistently write as if Israel is the only middle east state that matters. Syria need stability and security for itself and it's people. Ditto Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians, etc. 

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Israel is the only state that matters to Israel. Their priority is keeping themselves safe and stopping their neighbours from attacking them. Quite right too and any nation would do the same faced with the aggression they have had. 

Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 15/12/2024 at 21:47, egg said:

And I was responding to that point, and your perpetually blinkered view. It's not all about Israel. 

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Israel's view of what's best for Israel is all about Israel. They don't care about me, you or pretty much anyone else in the world, other than the Americans who keep signing off on the military exports.

My view isn't blinkered, I have never at any point tried to claim what Israel is doing is best for anyone other than themselves. Somebody claimed their actions we're in their own best interests, I disagree, I think they know exactly what they're doing.

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