What a decent season looks like for a poor PL team

[benjii]

There seems to be some growing alarm that we might get beaten comfortably on the opening day. So what?

Here's a reminder of what a reasonably successful season will look like this year:

- beat six or seven of the bottom half at home (circa 20 points)

- one or two surprising home results (4 points)

- three away wins (9 points)

- 6 battling draws (6 points)

- around 19 defeats

= 39ish points and probably staying up.

Stop shitting the bed.

[John B]

1 minute ago, benjii said:

There seems to be some growing alarm that we might get beaten comfortably on the opening day. So what?

Here's a reminder of what a reasonably successful season will look like this year:

- beat six or seven of the bottom half at home (circa 20 points)

- one or two surprising home results (4 points)

- three away wins (9 points)

- 6 battling draws (6 points)

- around 19 defeats

= 39ish points and probably staying up.

Stop shitting the bed.

No one is shitting the bed the squad is poor and is likely to be relegated like most teams which are promoted from the championship

Our recruitment has been dreadful since we sold VVD

[Nordic Saint]

29 minutes ago, benjii said:

There seems to be some growing alarm that we might get beaten comfortably on the opening day. So what?

Here's a reminder of what a reasonably successful season will look like this year:

- beat six or seven of the bottom half at home (circa 20 points)

- one or two surprising home results (4 points)

- three away wins (9 points)

- 6 battling draws (6 points)

- around 19 defeats

= 39ish points and probably staying up.

Stop shitting the bed.

If we don't get a new goalkeeper before the start of the season, we're not getting those 39 points. I remember the last Premier League season we had with Bazunu and McCarthy as our goalkeepers, and our outfield squad was probably better then. We got 25 points and the only points we picked up in our last 12 games were from two 3-3 draws and a 4-4 draw. All the stats, including number of shots at our goal on target and percentage of shots saved, showed that our defence, who got a lot of the blame, weren't doing a bad job, but our goalkeepers were, by far, the worst in the league. So, surely, going into a new Premier League season two years later with those same goalkeepers is sheer stupidity.

 

And that's not sh!tting the bed; it's common sense.

Edited August 1 by Nordic Saint

[Kenilworthy]

I would guess that 36 points is probably sufficient for comfortable survival nowadays.

[CB Fry]

Win 10 games we’re safe.

Edited August 1 by CB Fry

[CB Fry]

21 minutes ago, Nordic Saint said:

If we don't get a new goalkeeper before the start of the season, we're not getting those 39 points. I remember the last Premier League season we had with Bazunu and McCarthy as our goalkeepers, and our outfield squad was probably better then. We got 25 points and the only points we picked up in our last 12 games were from two 3-3 draws and a 4-4 draw. All the stats, including number of shots at our goal on target and percentage of shots saved, showed that our defence, who got a lot of the blame, weren't doing a bad job, but our goalkeepers were, by far, the worst in the league. So, surely, going into a new Premier League season two years later with those same goalkeepers is sheer stupidity.

 

And that's not sh!tting the bed; it's common sense.

100%. Clean sheets are so much more valuable than goals.

[Osvaldorama]

There’s nothing to be negative about this season really  

We will be massive underdogs in almost every game so may as well back the lads and just enjoy what we can  

Also the Championship is more fun anyway so if we go down it doesn’t matter. 

 

[S-Clarke]

Expectations are very low, as it often is for playoff winning sides, so like has been said we can go into games underdogs - anything is a bonus. I'd expect us to compete against our fellow promoted sides for sure, but based on squad depth currently, everyone else will be too strong for us.

I don't want to become a 'yo-yo' team, but I have a feeling we may end up being one this year. But either way, if we go back down we start again from a strong base and strong finances from this season to go again.

Maybe at that point we will no longer have a blind spot over our GK and ST signings, so we could start a PL season with a proper GK.

[spyinthesky]

1 hour ago, Osvaldorama said:

There’s nothing to be negative about this season really  

We will be massive underdogs in almost every game so may as well back the lads and just enjoy what we can  

Also the Championship is more fun anyway so if we go down it doesn’t matter. 

 

Fact of life, if we go down, as expected, we are not going to hold onto our better players and we start again from scratch>

I cant see much enjoyment in the coming season but that the 'joy' of being a Saints fan.

The money the club has lost from a litany of recent crap transfer dealings (apart from Livramento and Lavia) has really impacted on the quality of the team.

[trousers]

 

1 hour ago, S-Clarke said:

Expectations are very low, as it often is for playoff winning sides, so like has been said we can go into games underdogs - anything is a bonus. I'd expect us to compete against our fellow promoted sides for sure, but based on squad depth currently, everyone else will be too strong for us.

I don't want to become a 'yo-yo' team, but I have a feeling we may end up being one this year. But either way, if we go back down we start again from a strong base and strong finances from this season to go again.

Maybe at that point we will no longer have a blind spot over our GK and ST signings, so we could start a PL season with a proper GK.

Pretty much echos my thoughts. To my mind, it wouldn't be the end of the world if this season is all about stabalising the club's finances, which could result in a temporary yo-yo situation for the next couple of seasons. But, as you say, we should put us in a stronger position in the mid-to-long term

[trousers]

4 minutes ago, spyinthesky said:

if we go down, as expected, we are not going to hold onto our better players and we start again from scratch

There seems to be a bit of a concensus that most of our squad's natural level is "very good championship players"... so, IMO, I wouldn't expect to see a mass exodus if we get relegated again this season 

[sandwichsaint]

Home W 5  D 5. L  9

Away  W 2. D 5  L 12

31 Points 

Go through the first two rounds of both the cups.

I would say that’s where we are at the moment.

If we can sign an AM and a decent ST and a better GK (Ramsdale?)  Then that could be revised up a bit,

either way gonna be a massive ask to stay up.

 

[skintsaint]

As a minimum....avoid relegation, decent cup run. All I want this season really.

[Miltonaggro]

4 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Win 10 games we’re safe.

First 10 is a good target.  If Martin doesn't beat last seasons unbeaten run with the extra resources at his disposal we need to start asking questions. 

[AlexLaw76]

If we do not improve defensively, and a better keeper is a must, we will be comfortably relegated

[saintant]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

If we do not improve defensively, and a better keeper is a must, we will be comfortably relegated

Hard to argue with that.

[Oldandtired]

When you look at the squads the better, even mid, PL teams have assembled it’s hard to be optimistic about the coming season. So we have to pick off the weaker teams when we can. It will be a successful season if we manage to avoid relegation in my opinion.

As regards to being in the prem I hope it’s enjoyable. Given the prem refs, var, and the above perhaps the jury is out on that.

[SaintsFan86]

A decent season looks like survival, that's it. We are relegation favourites.

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

1 hour ago, SaintsFan86 said:

A decent season looks like survival, that's it. We are relegation favourites.

Everyone is expecting Leicester to get a points deduction. Team spirit and 'sum of the parts' counts for a lot. One of RM's strengths is that the squad seems united and working for each other. Win a couple of games early on and we can finish way above the relegation zone.  

[Miltonaggro]

A really good season would be Sport Republic getting Saints to where we were at the time of their takeover in January 22, around 12/13th, and building from there next season. Despite their steep learning curve since taking over I'm still not sure that they understand what it takes to be stable and competitive in this league, but a couple of statement signings (Ramsdale, O'Riley? or similar quality) would do their credibility and our chances a lot of good.  Otherwise a decent outcome is indeed, survival. 

[SNSUN]

I'll take 17th all day long. 3 going up are the 3 that will likely come back down but with some points deductions being handed out there is a chance. A team like Palace that have lost Olise and could lose Eze may also struggle to adjust and Everton... well there's a team that really should be relegation fodder. 

Ten wins should be enough with a handful of draws. Anything else is a bonus. The team lacks quality right now but hopefully this will still be addressed by the end of August.

[Winnersaint]

We’ll get a right dicking at SJP but we need to judge ourselves against Forest and Brentford. If way off the pace of those then we’ll be the league's whipping boys.

 

 

 

[Disco Stu]

9 hours ago, benjii said:

= 39ish points and probably staying up.

That would be more than decent with our squad.

[die Mannyschaft]

Not bothered at all after the Play off SF and final at Wembley to secure promotion.  It's unlikely that any of the bottom 8 teams will do anything near a euro place season on season in Prem without astronomical amounts of spend. I'll be happy with a bit of luck and avoid relegation. 

[Lee On Solent Saint]

Just want to finish above Bournemouth.

[Suhari]

6 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Just want to finish above Bournemouth.

You spelt Portsmouth wrong.

[UpweySaint]

Staying up would be great. If we go down it’s probably about what would be expected of us but I fancy we’ll be less insipid then our last relegation season.

I was surprised we came up last season so as far as I’m concerned we’re ahead of schedule. We all know the team needed a major overhaul and you can see that work happening - young talent with a British core and arguably less players who come across like dickheads. There is a good team spirit, evidence of a coach with a clear plan and some bright sparks with the likes of Dibling, Edwards and Sam Amo looking promising. 
 

A good season for me will be one where I can see a plan, find some positives and watch some goals! 17th and up is a bonus!

[Kenilworthy]

9 hours ago, sandwichsaint said:

Home W 5  D 5. L  9

Away  W 2. D 5  L 12

31 Points 

Go through the first two rounds of both the cups.

I would say that’s where we are at the moment.

If we can sign an AM and a decent ST and a better GK (Ramsdale?)  Then that could be revised up a bit,

either way gonna be a massive ask to stay up.

 

we won 3 games away last time round. That should be doable again. 6 home wins and draws here and there would be enough

[Disco Stu]

2 hours ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Just want to finish above Bournemouth.

Just want to finish above 3 clubs. Not fussed who.

[Kristian Loekkegaard]

7 hours ago, SaintsFan86 said:

A decent season looks like survival, that's it. We are relegation favourites.

Hold on.
Try to keep calm, cool and collected, please.

I know this is a cliche and I know I'm an older Saints fan who therefore remembers when we were pretty serious contenders for the league title in some seasons during the early 80s, BUT:

What about the DNA of our club? Is it bad DNA?

1. We are, respectfully, NOT a small club like for instance Brentford and Bournemouth.

2. We are at least a medium size club, well known for a fine academy having developed many great players scouted at a young age from all over Britain.

3. St. Mary's is a "UEFA 4 stars" 30.000 plus stadium suited for international games (in contrast to for example Brentfords and Bournemouths not so great stadiums). 

4. We have 36 seasons out of 44 seasons in the best league since 1980 (when I became a Saints supporter) = MUCH better than mighty West Ham, mighty Wolves, mighty Leeds, mighty Villa, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Brentford,  Ipswich and other current PL clubs for that matter as far as I'm aware.. 

Does that not count for anything?

Add to that a young, ambitious, skillful, visionary, exciting and lovely manager like RM plus the momentum we can carry with us from a great last season in the championship.

Yes, I know times have changed, football has changed, but in how many seasons in the top flight have we been relegated since 1980?
NOT many. 

I'm looking for more optimism here. Faith in our club.
 
I trust that we will be as competitive and ready as other clubs similar to us in size and wealth when the PL 24/25 season begins in a couple of weeks.

That said, we will hopefuly bring in more players before the window closes to strengthen the team 👍
 

[CB Fry]

4 hours ago, Kristian Loekkegaard said:

Hold on.
Try to keep calm, cool and collected, please.

I know this is a cliche and I know I'm an older Saints fan who therefore remembers when we were pretty serious contenders for the league title in some seasons during the early 80s, BUT:

What about the DNA of our club? Is it bad DNA?

1. We are, respectfully, NOT a small club like for instance Brentford and Bournemouth.

2. We are at least a medium size club, well known for a fine academy having developed many great players scouted at a young age from all over Britain.

3. St. Mary's is a "UEFA 4 stars" 30.000 plus stadium suited for international games (in contrast to for example Brentfords and Bournemouths not so great stadiums). 

4. We have 36 seasons out of 44 seasons in the best league since 1980 (when I became a Saints supporter) = MUCH better than mighty West Ham, mighty Wolves, mighty Leeds, mighty Villa, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Brentford,  Ipswich and other current PL clubs for that matter as far as I'm aware.. 

Does that not count for anything?

 

If it "counted for anything" we wouldn't have got relegated in the first place.

[S-Clarke]

6 hours ago, Kristian Loekkegaard said:

Hold on.
Try to keep calm, cool and collected, please.

I know this is a cliche and I know I'm an older Saints fan who therefore remembers when we were pretty serious contenders for the league title in some seasons during the early 80s, BUT:

What about the DNA of our club? Is it bad DNA?

1. We are, respectfully, NOT a small club like for instance Brentford and Bournemouth.

2. We are at least a medium size club, well known for a fine academy having developed many great players scouted at a young age from all over Britain.

3. St. Mary's is a "UEFA 4 stars" 30.000 plus stadium suited for international games (in contrast to for example Brentfords and Bournemouths not so great stadiums). 

4. We have 36 seasons out of 44 seasons in the best league since 1980 (when I became a Saints supporter) = MUCH better than mighty West Ham, mighty Wolves, mighty Leeds, mighty Villa, Brighton, Palace, Leicester, Brentford,  Ipswich and other current PL clubs for that matter as far as I'm aware.. 

Does that not count for anything?

 

Sadly in this day and age the only thing that counts is the $$$$ spent on your first team squad and the quality of said player. Nothing else makes any odds, Sunderland/Sheffield Wednesday/Leeds are relevant examples of that in relation to club size.

As it stands we have a proven Championship team, but unproven in the PL. THB/Downes/BBD/Smallbone/Armstrong etc may well step up, but that's what we're relying on outside of any PL level additions.

[Turkish]

Champions league or nothing 

[sandwichsaint]

1 hour ago, Turkish said:

Champions league or nothing 

Yep, fourth place over winning a cup every time.

[Holmes_and_Watson]

1 hour ago, Turkish said:

Champions league or nothing 

Defeatist. Champions or nothing!

🙂

[Kristian Loekkegaard]

8 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

Sadly in this day and age the only thing that counts is the $$$$ spent on your first team squad and the quality of said player. Nothing else makes any odds, Sunderland/Sheffield Wednesday/Leeds are relevant examples of that in relation to club size.

As it stands we have a proven Championship team, but unproven in the PL. THB/Downes/BBD/Smallbone/Armstrong etc may well step up, but that's what we're relying on outside of any PL level additions.

👍 
Let's hope Fraser, who I think is PL level, returns and that we sign a classy PL keeper and Matt O'Riley (or Haji Wright?).  I think David Brooks might return too and then, from my perspective, it does not look so dark.... 
We still have the best fans, and that means a lot as does the fact that Russell is a proper manager in my humble opinion.

[Kristian Loekkegaard]

10 hours ago, CB Fry said:

If it "counted for anything" we wouldn't have got relegated in the first place.

Ok Ok...., and I don't wanna sound like an 'elite division survival stats nerd' (maybe I am) , but as I see it (and let me add btw that we are not bottom 3 lowest budget in the prem I don't think).

1978 - 2005: elite division. 
27 years in a row. ✔️

2012 - 2023: elite division. 
11 years in a row. ✔️

Bottom line:
38 out of the last 46 seasons in the elite division. ✔️

Isn't that ok elite division football club DNA ✔️ ?   
I mean how many of the current elite teams have done better when it comes to staying in the elite division since the late 70's? 
Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Man.U., Everton, Chelsea and not many more, if any.
I´m not sure even Man. City have played 38 out of the last 46 seasons in the elite division. 😊

[badgerx16]

In the spirit of Dalek - finish 17th.

[Dark Munster]

14 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

In the spirit of Dalek - finish 17th.

I hate to say it, but this season I'm with Dalek on that one.

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, Dark Munster said:

I hate to say it, but this season I'm with Dalek on that one.

I'd be happy.

[CB Fry]

52 minutes ago, Kristian Loekkegaard said:

Ok Ok...., and I don't wanna sound like an 'elite division survival stats nerd' (maybe I am) , but as I see it (and let me add btw that we are not bottom 3 lowest budget in the prem I don't think).

1978 - 2005: elite division. 
27 years in a row. ✔️

2012 - 2023: elite division. 
11 years in a row. ✔️

Bottom line:
38 out of the last 46 seasons in the elite division. ✔️

Isn't that ok elite division football club DNA ✔️ ?   
I mean how many of the current elite teams have done better when it comes to staying in the elite division since the late 70's? 
Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Man.U., Everton, Chelsea and not many more, if any.
I´m not sure even Man. City have played 38 out of the last 46 seasons in the elite division. 😊

OK we get it you think we have a divine right to stay up.

[Lighthouse]

The PL is increasingly heading to a point where you basically have to hope your promotion coincides with somebody already there gets shafted by FFP and is forced into a yard sale and/or points deduction.

[Farmer Saint]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

The PL is increasingly heading to a point where you basically have to hope your promotion coincides with somebody already there gets shafted by FFP and is forced into a yard sale and/or points deduction.

Or where you haven't been in the PL for years and can spend as if you have £100m in your back pocket. 

Edited August 2 by Farmer Saint

[UpweySaint]

31 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Or where you haven't been in the PL for years and can spend as if you have £100m in your back pocket. 

I get the point but that sort of ignores how plenty of teams throw money around in a desperate attempt to escape the championship. Ipswich are pretty exceptional. 

I would say the relative success of Brentford and the more obvious success of Brighton show what can be done if you get the recruitment right.

If we’re sensible with contracts and the profile of players we recruit relegation may not be terminal. We may be able to keep the bulk of the squad together and hold out for good money for any players who are cherry picked.

 

[austsaint]

5 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

In the spirit of Dalek - finish 17th.

Is he still with us?   Life always seemed such a pessimistic struggle for him.

[Kristian Loekkegaard]

4 hours ago, CB Fry said:

OK we get it you think we have a divine right to stay up.

I'm talking about the DNA of our club in the context of surviving in the best league in England. I'm tryin' to bring forward a little optimism.
You think we are already relegated. That's ok 👍 
 

[Holmes_and_Watson]

11 minutes ago, austsaint said:

Is he still with us?   Life always seemed such a pessimistic struggle for him.

Hopefully won a lottery and grudgingly having to enjoy every moment of it.

[CB Fry]

5 hours ago, Kristian Loekkegaard said:

I'm talking about the DNA of our club in the context of surviving in the best league in England. I'm tryin' to bring forward a little optimism.
You think we are already relegated. That's ok 👍 
 

I mean go ahead and make shit up if you like, well done you.

But to be clear the great big list of things you put does not "count for anything".

List it and relist it as much as you like, it's still irrelevant just as it was in the 22-23 season.

 

Edited August 3 by CB Fry

[Tony F]

On 01/08/2024 at 22:07, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Just want to finish above Bournemouth.

I think mention of Bournemouth leads to a good discussion point (nothing to do with locality, imagined rivalry either).  Last season, Bournemouth batted well above their weight and finished 12th.  How did they do that with, I suggest, a modest squad, in a teeny stadium without a "name" manager? 

If we can identify and replicate some of their methods and core principles, then we could and should manage a similar season.  I'm not saying Saints should clone ourselves on Bournemouth, because our manager has his own way of doing things, but some of what they did last season could be worth learning from.

At the end of the day (season), 12th is very respectable.  Of the "mid table or worse" clubs they were only below Wet Spam, Palace and Brighton, taking 48 points in the process..

Credit where its due, I reckon.

[Kristian Loekkegaard]

2 hours ago, CB Fry said:

I mean go ahead and make shit up if you like, well done you.

But to be clear the great big list of things you put does not "count for anything".

List it and relist it as much as you like, it's still irrelevant just as it was in the 22-23 season.

 

I wish you more optimism Mr. Fry.