Leicester 5-0 Saints - Match Thread

[Fan The Flames]

  On 23/04/2024 at 11:19, tisspahars said:

Well, a short version would be......modern markets are controlled by the asian markets which are (very quickly) knocked into shape by the most successful punting syndicates, one of the best headed up by Tony Bloom the Brighton owner. In the same way in which Brighton have been ahead of the curve for years in player and manager recruitment due to using the best numbers to crunch and the best people to crunch them, the gambling side of what these people do works in a similar way. The stats mere mortals like us now see (xG etc) they were using many moons ago and these things are constantly evolving. Different syndicates work in different ways but many have a constant updated rating for each team and this when applied to whether a fixture is home or away gives them a basis for the "correct" price. Quite simply, Saints are currently rated a better side than Ipswich. Whereas the forum would look at the game at Portman Road and say "We were on top but we are a team of bedwetters and they are a proper team so that was always going to happen and will again" the syndicates would say "Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

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Interesting stuff.

So there are two types of favourite, the betting markets type and the one in reality. You'd think they would be the same but you've explained why they could be different. A football forum generally talks in terms of the actual favourite.

[Turkish]

  On 23/04/2024 at 11:19, tisspahars said:

Well, a short version would be......modern markets are controlled by the asian markets which are (very quickly) knocked into shape by the most successful punting syndicates, one of the best headed up by Tony Bloom the Brighton owner. In the same way in which Brighton have been ahead of the curve for years in player and manager recruitment due to using the best numbers to crunch and the best people to crunch them, the gambling side of what these people do works in a similar way. The stats mere mortals like us now see (xG etc) they were using many moons ago and these things are constantly evolving. Different syndicates work in different ways but many have a constant updated rating for each team and this when applied to whether a fixture is home or away gives them a basis for the "correct" price. Quite simply, Saints are currently rated a better side than Ipswich. Whereas the forum would look at the game at Portman Road and say "We were on top but we are a team of bedwetters and they are a proper team so that was always going to happen and will again" the syndicates would say "Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

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What about factors like they've beaten us twice already, they finished higher in the league, so far this season we've only managed 3 wins in 8 games against the rest of the top 6 (two of them against the same team), we've only beaten one of them away from St Marys. In the real world we aren't the better team by any metric.

Edited 23 April, 2024 by Turkish

[CB Fry]

  On 22/04/2024 at 07:47, tisspahars said:

You can react with all the confused faces you like Turkish (😉) but it is a fact - in that scenario, in the real world of cold, hard cash rather than the la la land of this forum, Saints would be clear favourites.

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  On 23/04/2024 at 11:19, tisspahars said:

Well, a short version would be......modern markets are controlled by the asian markets which are (very quickly) knocked into shape by the most successful punting syndicates, one of the best headed up by Tony Bloom the Brighton owner. In the same way in which Brighton have been ahead of the curve for years in player and manager recruitment due to using the best numbers to crunch and the best people to crunch them, the gambling side of what these people do works in a similar way. The stats mere mortals like us now see (xG etc) they were using many moons ago and these things are constantly evolving. Different syndicates work in different ways but many have a constant updated rating for each team and this when applied to whether a fixture is home or away gives them a basis for the "correct" price. Quite simply, Saints are currently rated a better side than Ipswich. Whereas the forum would look at the game at Portman Road and say "We were on top but we are a team of bedwetters and they are a proper team so that was always going to happen and will again" the syndicates would say "Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

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Jesus wept. 

[david in sweden]

Not sure if  McCarthy could be blamed for the goals we conceded at Cardiff ? ... but with the prospect of automatic promotion now

only existing in a Hollywood script... isn't it time to give Joe Lumley the goalies gloves for tonight's game and and see if could be a serious

contender as a custodian next season - regardless of whichever league we will be in.  

 

With McCarthy out of contract in the summer and Bazunu out until after the New Year (and needing to be in top form from his first game), 

Joe will be the only goalie (on paper) by the end of the summer.     Serious (experienced ) replacements are a real priority here. 

With the known absentees in midfield, the central trio will likely pick itself and with Mara on suspension.. ( silly boy ! ) ..we are likely to see

a couple of Academy names on the bench, with serious chances of getting game time. ...( and I who thought Leeds would be the key fixture ).

[mikec]

  On 23/04/2024 at 10:07, Osvaldorama said:

I know exactly what you mean. Went to watch Maidenhead the other day with some mates and it was class. The idea of going back to the PL with VAR,  the big six, the money, sky, etc genuinely fills me with dread. 
 

I want saints to win every week and not go back up. I have loved the championship.
 

It’s a strange paradox. 

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I think this blog sums it up.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2024/apr/23/for-sheffield-united-and-co-the-premier-league-brings-a-unique-brew-of-misery

 

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 11:19, tisspahars said:

"Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

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Don't these amazingly clever, make us mere mortals look like idiots, Rasmus type people, consider league points to be a metric?

[die Mannyschaft]

LC 1-1 Saints tonight. Hope we don't get any red cards or more injuries. Possible weak team selected to save the Decent players? It's almost impossible to get 2nd place and would need to click up at least 14 goals for goal difference if lose tonight

[CamSaint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 14:24, die Mannyschaft said:

Possible weak team selected to save the Decent players

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Presumably we can't overtly field a weakened team (unless we have suddenly acquired some 'injuries' in training yesterday) as Leeds & Ipswich would no doubt complain to the league about it. I have no idea if the League can penalise us in any way if we did so?

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 14:30, CamSaint said:

Presumably we can't overtly field a weakened team (unless we have suddenly acquired some 'injuries' in training yesterday) as Leeds & Ipswich would no doubt complain to the league about it. I have no idea if the League can penalise us in any way if we did so?

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Surely we can play our registered players whenever (and wherever in the case of JS) we want?

[DT]

Please God I hope someone has noticed how slow Vestergard is and that we should have someone run at him at pace, not that we ever do that anywhere. If he plays Aribo and he's excellent I expect he'll take him off. And I expect Che Adams to be completely inept as ever. 2-1 win to us. (hahaha)

[BallBoy]

I am sorry to say but I think we could lose quite heavily tonight. We have genuine injury worries but Martin will probably not be able to resist other changes which will unbalance the team. I hope I am wrong but 3-0 would not surprise me.

[JRM]

  On 23/04/2024 at 15:05, BallBoy said:

I am sorry to say but I think we could lose quite heavily tonight. We have genuine injury worries but Martin will probably not be able to resist other changes which will unbalance the team. I hope I am wrong but 3-0 would not surprise me.

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Personally I thought odds on a Leicester win looked good value when I backed them a couple of days ago 

[notnowcato]

Hoping tonight's team includes Lumley and Charles, hopefully squeeze in a youngster; Meghoma?  Dibling off the bench for the last 20 minutes.

Not bothered about the result, a decent performance, some competition for places and no injuries / red cards will do but if we do spoil the promotion party then so be it 😇

[Jack]

Win tonight and the next 2, Ipswich lose their 2 away games, Leeds draw at QPR. 

 

It’s on. 
 

(I don’t actually believe that but have just arrived in Leicester anyway)

Edited 23 April, 2024 by Jack

[gurru991]

  On 23/04/2024 at 11:19, tisspahars said:

Well, a short version would be......modern markets are controlled by the asian markets which are (very quickly) knocked into shape by the most successful punting syndicates, one of the best headed up by Tony Bloom the Brighton owner. In the same way in which Brighton have been ahead of the curve for years in player and manager recruitment due to using the best numbers to crunch and the best people to crunch them, the gambling side of what these people do works in a similar way. The stats mere mortals like us now see (xG etc) they were using many moons ago and these things are constantly evolving. Different syndicates work in different ways but many have a constant updated rating for each team and this when applied to whether a fixture is home or away gives them a basis for the "correct" price. Quite simply, Saints are currently rated a better side than Ipswich. Whereas the forum would look at the game at Portman Road and say "We were on top but we are a team of bedwetters and they are a proper team so that was always going to happen and will again" the syndicates would say "Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

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Thanks for that very clear & very interesting explanation 

[macca155]

  On 22/04/2024 at 22:59, trousers said:

Following the Leeds result tonight, which finally snuffed out the faintest of hopes remaining for auto-promotion, I agree with those intimating that we should now look to protect our key players ahead of the play-offs.

Whilst I get the converse argument, i.e. that we should continue to play our best players so that we can build up some momentum in the lead up to the play offs, I still think resting/protecting players outweighs the benefits of any such 'momentum' (the latter approach could also backfire if we were to have poor results whilst playing our playoff team...)

So, I'd go with something along these lines...

McCarthy

Bree - Stephens - Bednarek - Meghoma

Charles 

Smallbone - Rothwell

Edozie - Dibling - Amo-Ameyaw 

Subs: Lumley, Manning, KWP, THB, Bragg, Brooks, A.Armstrong, Fraser, Adams

Shoot me down!

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Agree, except Rothwell. A loan that hasn't really worked out. Put Dibling there as that's his position and play Adams. He's tough Nd needs the momentum of goal scoring.

[gammon cheeks]

Still 3 games to go its not over yet!  While there is still a chance we should be fielding our strongest team in my opinion.   Nothings impossible untill its a fact .

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 09:40, Wade Garrett said:

Reckon KWP, Adams and Downes will be on the bench until the play-offs.  Stephens will play to give our CBs a rest.

That would be the sensible thing to do anyway.  We’re finishing 4th regardless.

 

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That's the question. I'm guessing Downes isn't fully fit, but do you rest other key players? You then get disjointed teams for three matches before the play offs. Or do you play your full strength teams for Leicester and Stoke to build mutual understanding and confidence?

Whatever, I'd like to see Charles get a lot of game time today.

[Totton Saint]

Let's hope the curse of Sky TV does not kick in this evening.  Harkingback to the last game,to put three subs on at a time like last time was bound to disrupt the team. Inany event it did nothing for the result.

 

[JRM]

What minute will they mention the 9-0 ? 

[coalman]

  On 23/04/2024 at 17:16, JRM said:

What minute will they mention the 9-0 ? 

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You mean when in the build up on Sky will they mention it? Probably about 5 minutes in.

[davefizzy14]

Hopefully we can return to winning ways tonight - 2-1 to us - Adam Armstrong and Fraser to score COYR 😊

[Guest]

Now he plays Shea Charles, a game too late. Or several.

No Jack Stephens in the team. Rothwell starts, despite the fact he’s never been very good as a starting player.

Leicester going full strength, 2-1 win for them tonight.

[gammon cheeks]

Hopefully Charles will show why we payed a lot of money for him .  Looks a pretty good team to be honest .

[saintant]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:02, FarehamSaintJames said:

Now he plays Shea Charles, a game too late. Or several.

No Jack Stephens in the team. Rothwell starts, despite the fact he’s never been very good as a starting player.

Leicester going full strength, 2-1 win for them tonight.

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I knew he'd start Rothwell.

[James]

Quite like that team. 

[davefizzy14]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:06, gammon cheeks said:

Hopefully Charles will show why we payed a lot of money for him .  Looks a pretty good team to be honest .

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Exactly this. Glad to see Charles back in 😊

[Totton Saint]

where can you see the team selection

[saintant]

What is the starting lineup?

[Lighthouse]

Not sure how Brooks keeps starting ahead of Fraser. The latter is definitely better IMO.

[trousers]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:08, Totton Saint said:

where can you see the team selection

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[tdmickey3]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:08, davefizzy14 said:

Exactly this. Glad to see Charles back in 😊

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Just shows how stupid not playing him last week was.

Is Downes still “close”

All a bit academic now though

If Vardy plays he will love running away down our overexposed flanks

Edited 23 April, 2024 by tdmickey3

[Guest]

Fraser should be starting over Brooks

[RedWillie]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:07, saintant said:

I knew he'd start Rothwell.

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Sooner him than Smallbone who offers very litle

[saintstowin]

Sensible I think. Brooks over one or two others but no one has screamed pick me instead in the last few weeks. Rothwell for an hour to see what he can offer from the start. Glad Charles is in. 

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

So he's not resting players. Apart from Rothwell, nothing too contentious here.

Leicester to bottle it. Che finds his banjo. Saints win 3-1.

[chownie20]

Was hoping to see Brooks tried in Steuys role...ahead of a playoff trio of Downes Aribo Brooks, then Arma and Fraser on the wings. Quite attacking though but could bring Charles and Smallbone for Aribo and Brooks if needed solidity.

[SambaMaverick]

Charles is a false prophet. He's dog shit, no better than Smallbone in there.

[Saint NL]

Unconvinced by Rothwell, but let's see what he can do.

Nice to see two young lads on the bench.

[Convict Colony]

Not watching tonight through choice due to extreme sadness because of Cardiff.

Thank me later for the 8-0 win

[Dark Munster]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:19, OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint said:

So he's not resting players. Apart from Rothwell, nothing too contentious here.

Leicester to bottle it. Che finds his banjo. Saints win 3-1.

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Yes, but will he hit the cow's arse?

[coalman]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:23, Dark Munster said:

Yes, but will he hit the cow's arse?

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After swiping at air over the weekend, the banjo will be enraged. Leicester beware. Hat-trick incoming.

[Weston Super Saint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:23, Dark Munster said:

Yes, but will he hit the cow's arse?

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Where Che lives, cows don't have arses.

[S-Clarke]

It's good to see a proper 6 in there without Downes, we need Charles to be disciplined in the role though.

I hope Rothwell is given a bit of freedom as I think he's blunted when he's stuck in a rigid pivot, could see the best of him if he's allowed to carry the ball forward.

The team kinda makes sense tbh.

[Ekelund]

Is Nigel Pearson wearing a tag?!

[JRM]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:07, saintant said:

I knew he'd start Rothwell.

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Most natural replacement for Stu Armstrong 

Not a bad line up really 

[The Curse of St Mary's]

Leicester midfield will dominate although their defence isn't great so hopefully we can out score them but can't see it unfortunately 

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

  On 23/04/2024 at 18:22, Convict Colony said:

Not watching tonight through choice due to extreme sadness because of Cardiff.

Thank me later for the 8-0 win

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C'mon Convict. Head up. Win here and we're right back in the promotion race  

[JRM]

If we pull off a shock win all it would do is help Leeds and Ipswich,  not much incentive 

[coalman]

I'm expecting to see a complete performance tonight. A period of total dominance where we can't convert and Che fails to score when 1 on 1 with their keeper. Brooks indifferent at the periphery of the game. Rothwell anonymous in midfield. A McCarthy howler where we forget he's in goal and fanny about at the back. A goal scored where a winger is able to advance down the middle of the pitch unmarked. A late goal deciding the game against us. Followed by a Saintsweb meltdown about how we didn't make automatic promotion. Nothing else is going to set us up for the playoffs.