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Automatic promotion chances...

Saint86

By Saint86
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SaintsFan86

SaintsFan86

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, FarehamSaintJames said:

Looks good though. Sky remembered we exist too.

 

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We shouldn't really be anywhere near the top 3 teams... the fact we are is just testement to how much they messed up.

Getting beat by Ipswich when we were so dominant really grates on me looking at the table.

We'd be 3rd now with a game in hand and probably more likely favourites for the run in with the momentum. 

Edited by SaintsFan86
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  • Like 2
Alanh

Alanh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SaintsFan86 said:

We shouldn't really be anywhere near the top 3 teams... the fact we are is just paramount to how much they messed up.

Getting beat by Ipswich when we were so dominant really grates on me looking at the table.

We'd be 3rd now with a game in hand and probably more likely favourites for the run in with the momentum. 

Four very good teams all messing up a different times of the season.  We did our howlers in Sept and Feb, they are doing theirs now.

 

I think you meant testement rather than parmount 😉

  • Like 2
Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SaintsFan86 said:

We shouldn't really be anywhere near the top 3 teams... the fact we are is just paramount to how much they messed up.

Getting beat by Ipswich when we were so dominant really grates on me looking at the table.

We'd be 3rd now with a game in hand and probably more likely favourites for the run in with the momentum. 

Actually we should. In any normal season being in the high eighties or low nineties usually gets you automatic promotion. We're on 84 with four games left, so certainly in that ball park. The other teams, apart from Leicester, haven't really messed up. They've just had peaks and troughs in form across the season, much like we have.

  • Like 7
SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted

Reading the Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds forums, a lot of fans are doubting their own team finishing top 2. We’re still outsiders and it’s possible our goal difference could count against us but we definitely seem to have shaken the top 3 teams’ fans up with the recent wins. Even if we fall short we’ll be in good form heading into the play-offs. Beat Cardiff and we go into the Leicester game with serious confidence, I just hope Martin plays his best team… yesterdays.

 

What a League this season though. To think first place going into the last day could potentially finish 4th. Glad we’ve been a part of it even if we’ve had a couple of bad spells.

saintant

saintant

Posted
Posted

It's quite a simple equation now - win our 4 remaining games and, unless Ipswich win their 3 games, we are promoted automatically (Ipswich could equal our 96 points with 2 wins and a draw but if we get 4 wins it is highly probable our goal difference would be superior). It's obviously a very tough ask but confidence should be flowing after last night's performance and the other 3 teams seem to be extremely nervy right now.  One game at a time so on to Cardiff and we all hope another massive effort from the team will result in a victory.

  • Like 2
saintant

saintant

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Reading the Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds forums, a lot of fans are doubting their own team finishing top 2. We’re still outsiders and it’s possible our goal difference could count against us but we definitely seem to have shaken the top 3 teams’ fans up with the recent wins. Even if we fall short we’ll be in good form heading into the play-offs. Beat Cardiff and we go into the Leicester game with serious confidence, I just hope Martin plays his best team… yesterdays.

 

What a League this season though. To think first place going into the last day could potentially finish 4th. Glad we’ve been a part of it even if we’ve had a couple of bad spells.

It's highly unlikely that goal difference will count against us. If we gain enough points to overhaul Ipswich then it is almost certain we'll have overtaken their goal difference because we'll have won our final 4 games. If we drop any points we won't be going up unless via the play-offs. I'm fairly relaxed about the goal difference issue as I can't see it being a factor.

Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted

that bank holiday weekend. :facepalm: Middlesbourghs late equaliser, Ipswich late winner, we'd be on 87 points with Ipswich and Leeds now with a game in hand on them both.

  • Like 1
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Whitey Grandad

Whitey Grandad

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Turkish said:

that bank holiday weekend. :facepalm: Middlesbourghs late equaliser, Ipswich late winner, we'd be on 87 points with Ipswich and Leeds now with a game in hand on them both.

“Wenn das Wörtchen wenn nicht wär, wär mein Vater Millionär“

malcolm waldron

malcolm waldron

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, saintant said:

It's highly unlikely that goal difference will count against us. If we gain enough points to overhaul Ipswich then it is almost certain we'll have overtaken their goal difference because we'll have won our final 4 games. If we drop any points we won't be going up unless via the play-offs. I'm fairly relaxed about the goal difference issue as I can't see it being a factor.

I can't believe (after the Easter games) that we've managed to get back in with a chance of top 2, but I'm not so confident that goal difference is unlikely to be an issue.  Ipswich are quite capable of - say - putting 5 past Huddersfield on the last day of the season as they seem to bounce back from adversity quite well.  Where would that scenario leave us?  Maybe still needing to win asll 4 and needing both Leicester and Leeds to stumble.

  • Like 1
JustinR

JustinR

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Turkish said:

that bank holiday weekend. :facepalm: Middlesbourghs late equaliser, Ipswich late winner, we'd be on 87 points with Ipswich and Leeds now with a game in hand on them both.

Many have spoken about the Ipswich winner...I'm most annoyed about the Blackburn game. The players and manager had all but given up and the performance and result reflected that. 

 

  • Like 2
saintant

saintant

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, SW5 SAINT said:

It’s actually a plus now that we still have to play Leicester and Leeds….!

Agree. Two incredibly tough games but if we could somehow beat them both we're reducing the ultimate number of points they can amass. They'll be equally nervous and will be concerned by the fact that we are currently in better form than they are. 

Edited by saintant
  • Like 1
Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted

i can imagine a scenario now where we go into the Leeds game top only needing to avoid defeat to go up only for us to lose and come fourth

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malcolm waldron

malcolm waldron

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Turkish said:

i can imagine a scenario now where we go into the Leeds game top only needing to avoid defeat to go up only for us to lose and come fourth

Is there a scenario where both Leeds and us only need a point each to guarantee automatic promotion?  If so it would make last nights Preston team look like the hardest working side in European football....

  • Haha 1
CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, malcolm waldron said:

Is there a scenario where both Leeds and us only need a point each to guarantee automatic promotion?  If so it would make last nights Preston team look like the hardest working side in European football....

Very much in the style of the 1982 World Cup Group Stage stitch up.

To be fair we could aimlessly knock it about not threatening their goal for an hour and the authorities would not suspect a thing.

Edited by CB Fry
  • Haha 15
Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Turkish said:

that bank holiday weekend. :facepalm: Middlesbourghs late equaliser, Ipswich late winner, we'd be on 87 points with Ipswich and Leeds now with a game in hand on them both.

If only we hadn't lost any game this season we would have been promoted weeks ago. We just have to accept that in a 46 match season there will be disappointing matches.

All teams can come out with "if onlys" at this stage of the season. eg Ipswich lost to Cardiff despite being in the lead after 95 minutes. Leeds lost last week to Blackburn . Leicester lost to relegation threatened QPR and Plymouth. 

Lets look forward with no regtets. 

. 

L

  • Like 8
Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

If only we hadn't lost any game this season we would have been promoted weeks ago. We just have to accept that in a 46 match season there will be disappointing matches.

All teams can come out with "if onlys" at this stage of the season. eg Ipswich lost to Cardiff despite being in the lead after 95 minutes. Leeds lost last week to Blackburn . Leicester lost to relegation threatened QPR and Plymouth. 

Lets look forward with no regtets. 

. 

L

conceding in the 7th minute of injury to lose against your promotion rivals after leader though...........

  • Like 3
Dr Who?

Dr Who?

Posted
Posted

If we win on Saturday, we could have the chance to go top of Tuesday if Leicester and Leeds do not take full points over the weekend and Monday. Ipswich game is off, so we could be top by a point with Ipswich having the game in hand. 

All those say if we had done this and if we had done that, all the other teams at the top will be saying the same. We had late winners at Millwall and Hull, and at home to Huddersfield, Sunderland and just at the weekend against Watford. It is all part of the game. 

Dr Who?

Dr Who?

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Saint Matty 76 said:

I remember thinking that a point at Ipswich didn’t matter and it was win or nothing, funny how quickly it changes

I was thinking the Blackburn game did not matter, so I was not bothered about the result as it was all about the playoffs. 🙄 

ErwinK1961

ErwinK1961

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, malcolm waldron said:

Is there a scenario where both Leeds and us only need a point each to guarantee automatic promotion?  If so it would make last nights Preston team look like the hardest working side in European football....

We would need;

- Leeds to win against QPR and Boro - putting them on 93 points

- Us to beat Cardiff, Leicester and Stoke, putting us on 93 points

- Leicester to draw with WBA, lose to us and draw with Preston - putting them on 90 points

- Ipswich losing one and drawing one of Coventry and Hull - putting them on 90 points

Never going to happen!

  • Like 1
SaintsFan86

SaintsFan86

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ErwinK1961 said:

We would need;

- Leeds to win against QPR and Boro - putting them on 93 points

- Us to beat Cardiff, Leicester and Stoke, putting us on 93 points

- Leicester to draw with WBA, lose to us and draw with Preston - putting them on 90 points

- Ipswich losing one and drawing one of Coventry and Hull - putting them on 90 points

Never going to happen!

Imagine it though, At the end Both sets of fans singing in unison " we are premier league " would be some celebration in Leeds that day/evening.

  • Like 1
sfc4prem

sfc4prem

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Tamesaint said:

If only we hadn't lost any game this season we would have been promoted weeks ago. We just have to accept that in a 46 match season there will be disappointing matches.

All teams can come out with "if onlys" at this stage of the season. eg Ipswich lost to Cardiff despite being in the lead after 95 minutes. Leeds lost last week to Blackburn . Leicester lost to relegation threatened QPR and Plymouth. 

Lets look forward with no regtets. 

. 

L

Absolutely this.

 

If only we'd have kept Lavia or JWP. If we'd won against Rotherham and Millwall and Hull... let's stop with the what ifs!

Edited by sfc4prem
  • Like 2
chownie20

chownie20

Posted
Posted

After all the "if we win all our games we will go up" narrative, I hadnt quite twigged that that isnt the case, is it?  If we win all our matches, and Ipswich/Leicester dont drop any points (Except Leicester losing to us) we are still a point shy?  Or have I got that wrong?

Fan The Flames

Fan The Flames

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, chownie20 said:

After all the "if we win all our games we will go up" narrative, I hadnt quite twigged that that isnt the case, is it?  If we win all our matches, and Ipswich/Leicester dont drop any points (Except Leicester losing to us) we are still a point shy?  Or have I got that wrong?

Correct.

Ipswich 98

Leicester 97

Saints 96

Leeds 93

  • Like 2
JRM

JRM

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

Correct.

Ipswich 98

Leicester 97

Saints 96

Leeds 93

Yeah it still seems very unlikely for us to get automatic, need too much to go our way still 

Toadhall Saint

Toadhall Saint

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, chownie20 said:

Ipswich have two very tough away games coming up and are not exactly in top form. Albeit they will have had a 2 week break....

A 2 week break isn’t always a good idea as it can break momentum and focus.

  • Like 1
mikec

mikec

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, malcolm waldron said:

Is there a scenario where both Leeds and us only need a point each to guarantee automatic promotion?  If so it would make last nights Preston team look like the hardest working side in European football....

I remember a season in the 90s (I think when Graham Souness was our manager) when we played at Villa on the last day.  We needed a point to stay up and Villa needed a point to guarantee a European spot.  Everyone said they would play out a stale 0-0 but of course we still managed to lose it 1-0 and only stayed up because other results went our way.

Edited by mikec
Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, ErwinK1961 said:

We would need;

- Leeds to win against QPR and Boro - putting them on 93 points

- Us to beat Cardiff, Leicester and Stoke, putting us on 93 points

- Leicester to draw with WBA, lose to us and draw with Preston - putting them on 90 points

- Ipswich losing one and drawing one of Coventry and Hull - putting them on 90 points

Never going to happen!

I wouldn’t say never considering how results have gone recently. It would be absolutely hilarious. 
 

I'm still expecting play offs so anything else is a bonus. 

Stud mark of doom

Stud mark of doom

Posted
Posted

Best case outcome would mean

promoted 29 April (2 days after Stoke game, with Leicester failing to win at Preston)

champions the next day - with Ipswich failing to win at Coventry 

Saints receive a sporting round of applause from all sides of the stadium as they present the trophy to the crowd in advance of the Leeds away fixture. 
 

COYR

  • Like 4
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SaintsFan86

SaintsFan86

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Stud mark of doom said:

Best case outcome would mean

promoted 29 April (2 days after Stoke game, with Leicester failing to win at Preston)

champions the next day - with Ipswich failing to win at Coventry 

Saints receive a sporting round of applause from all sides of the stadium as they present the trophy to the crowd in advance of the Leeds away fixture. 
 

COYR

Like fuck would the fans do that. 🤣🤣🤣

Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, chownie20 said:

After all the "if we win all our games we will go up" narrative, I hadnt quite twigged that that isnt the case, is it?  If we win all our matches, and Ipswich/Leicester dont drop any points (Except Leicester losing to us) we are still a point shy?  Or have I got that wrong?

You are perfectly correct but it also works the other way. We could draw a couple of matches yet still get automatically promoted if Leicester and Leeds continue to drop points. 

CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Stud mark of doom said:

Best case outcome would mean

promoted 29 April (2 days after Stoke game, with Leicester failing to win at Preston)

champions the next day - with Ipswich failing to win at Coventry 

Saints receive a sporting round of applause from all sides of the stadium as they present the trophy to the crowd in advance of the Leeds away fixture. 
 

COYR

Guard of honour from the Leeds players as we run out, surely.

 

  • Haha 1

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