Saint86 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) I thought i'd post this now (in my hubirs before watford crush any slither of a chance)... I wanted to see just what the chances were of a Saints automatic promotion. The answer, i think, is bloody unlikely.... 😄 May be of interest - https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ So, the following begins with one very large premise / "if" statement... and then continues down that path.... That Premise, or "if" statement, is that Martin is about to morph into the 2nd coming of Guardiola and we somehow manage to win every game.... Then we'd get to 96 points!!! Woop woop!! promotion is on the cards right?!?! Sadly probably not.., although i think almost certainly secure 3rd regardless, which does perhaps give us benefits in the playoff draw? But anyway, in that perfect run in scenario, our rivals for automatics would likely only be Leeds and Leicester. I'm dismissing Ipswich right now for a few reasons (i think they're shitter than the table suggests, am bitter that they got 2 wins against us, and think they'll drop points... there i said it...) But fair play if they can get through some fairly tough fixtures to keep pace with the other 2 as well... Will make the playoff final even sweeter when we send them packing! So then, for what i assume will be the top 2 - how many points will we really need to catch them>>> (For the sake of argument, the following all also include Saints beating Leicester and Leeds). Leicester (Plymouth (a), WBA (a), Saints (h), Preston (a), Blackburn (h). Of note perhaps, is that WBA to Preston is 10day period with 3 reasonably tricky games - and yes, i know our run is worse! Scenarios: Leicester finish above us - very likely (see below) Leicester with an additional loss (lets say WBA away) hit 97points and finish above us - Irrelevant, but may happen i guess. Alternatively, Leicester with two draws 96 points and a significantly better GD - We still aren't catching them... Leicester with one loss and and a draw (you're looking for Preston (A) or Blackburn (H - final day) for that draw mind...) would hit 95points and we could catch them... again, i think this could maybe happen, but very unlikely... Leeds (Blackburn(H), Boro(A), QPR (A) Leeds with an additional loss (lets say Boro away) hit 93points and we can catch them - I can't see this at all. Leeds with an additional draw (lets also say Boro away) hit 95points - Could happen but i still can't really see this. It would also supercharge the last game and make it very hard to get that win at Elland Road (imagine the late night fireworks etc). In this scenario we can catch them and get 2nd though. Yay, party! Leeds win every game bar saints, they hit 96points and finish above us due to their vastly superior goal difference - I see this as a pretty likely outcome for those matches lets be honest. All in all, we have to go on a crazy run with no real evidence that we're capable of it, and we need the other teams to do pretty poorly (by their standards this season)... sadly just one set of dropped points out of the boro, ipswich, and blackburn results would have made the difference... Edited April 12 by Saint86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErwinK1961 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 That’s a lengthy, detailed post for something that isn’t going to happen. Good effort though. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swannymere Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 No Chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric The Red Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Essnetially very slim and not worth focussing on unless we win our next 3 games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Too many fuck-ups by the manager for us to finish top 2. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I'll defer to @CB Fry for a verdict on this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coalman Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmickey3 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Lets hope Gio doesn't respond to the OP, the site will crash due to lack of bandwidth 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 35 minutes ago, trousers said: I'll defer to @CB Fry for a verdict on this All you negative nellies need to grow a pair and just believe 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 If we win tomorrow and two of the three above us lose or draw then, with two games in hand it get very interesting and that Preston game Tuesday night suddenly becomes very big. Having said that although they have tricky looking games I don’t see Leeds or Ipswich not winning and I think Leicester will win at a canter away to Plymouth. It’s the hope that kills ya ! 😂 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) 43 minutes ago, beatlesaint said: If we win tomorrow and two of the three above us lose or draw then, with two games in hand it get very interesting and that Preston game Tuesday night suddenly becomes very big. It's a good job we've been clinical at despatching opposition in pivotal mid-week matches over recent times, otherwise I'd be nervous about such an upcoming fixture... Edited April 12 by trousers 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintJackoInHurworth Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I think you are wrong to dismiss Ipswich so easily. I actually think it could be any of the other three who will finish in the top two - probably Leicester and then one of the other two. For the (fantasy) scenario in which we might have a chance of securing automatic promotion I think it would look something like this: 12/4 Plymouth v Leicester - 1-2 13/4 Leeds v Blackburn - 2-0 Saints v Watford - 2-0 Ipswich v M'boro - 2-1 16/4 Saints v Preston - 2-0 20/4 Leicester v West Brom - 1-1 Cardiff v Saints - 1-2 22/4 M'boro v Leeds - 2-1 23/4 Leicester v Saints - 1-2 26/4 QPR v Leeds - 2-1 27/4 Saints v Stoke - 3-1 Hull v Ipswich - 2-1 29/4 Preston v Leicester - 2-1 30/4 Coventry v Ipswich - 2-1 4/5 Ipswich v Huddersfield - 2-0 Leeds v Saints - 1-1 Leicester v Blackburn - 2-0 Potentially you could easily give Leicester better result predictions than I have given them for their other games (obviously except for the one against Saints in this fantasy scenario!) This would result in a top 4 finish as follows: 1 Leicester City 46 30 5 11 86:43 43 95 2 Southampton FC 46 28 10 8 90:56 34 94 3 Ipswich Town 46 28 10 8 90:57 33 94 4 Leeds United 46 27 10 9 81:38 43 91 So, even in a scenario which is wildly favourable to Saints, we would still only scrape automatic promotion on goal difference! What does give me some hope in all this is that Ipswich have got two very tough away fixtures against play-off contenders (Hull and Coventry), though those teams could be out of the running by the time Ipswich play them. What doesn't give me any hope is the requirement that Saints would need to win 5 out of 6 games and at least draw the other game!!! Which is why, sadly, it is just fantasy!! (though of course, we would all be crazily delighted if it came true!!!!!!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 1 hour ago, beatlesaint said: It’s the hope that kills ya ! 😂 True. Thankfully we have no hope! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suhari Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Have we cooked the league yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted April 12 Author Share Posted April 12 (edited) 2 hours ago, ErwinK1961 said: That’s a lengthy, detailed post for something that isn’t going to happen. Good effort though. Haha, yes agreed. I thought our chances were better when i started writing it... and then i just adopted a "i've started so i'll finish" mentality by the end 😂 Edited April 12 by Saint86 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pingpong Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Another way to look at it, if we assume everyone's form stays the same as it is now, and each team gets the same points for its next x games as it did for the previous x games you get: Leicester 95pts Ipswich 95pts Leeds 92pts Saints 89pts. Our only chance will be with extra wins for us and extra defeats for the others. The above doesn't account for the fact we play each other. It is unlikely, but if we win both of the 6pt games against Leeds and Leicester it could narrow the gap, those are our chances to overcome the form and change the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonaggro Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErwinK1961 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 1 hour ago, Saint86 said: Haha, yes agreed. I thought our chances were better when i started writing it... and then i just adopted a "i've started so i'll finish" mentality by the end 😂 😂 love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I’ll say it again, I have no tattoos but if Russ gets us promoted I’ll get a tattoo of him on my butt. I’ll include play off winners in that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Not worth the effort and all the working outs. It's not going to happen, probably 98% probability that we finish 4th. Get the money on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric The Red Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 5 minutes ago, S-Clarke said: Not worth the effort and all the working outs. It's not going to happen, probably 98% probability that we finish 4th. Get the money on that! Just checked, we're 1-50 to be in the playoffs, so 98% spot on. You can get 500-1 for us to win the league , if you fancy wasting a fiver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) We ain’t got the minerals! Edited April 13 by Zorba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's There Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 It’s on. Leicester are losing to Plymouth 😊 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Matty 76 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Leicester will win 3-1, nothing to see here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Plymouth score with their first shot on target, after having nothing of the ball Not just us then 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Jeweller Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Paddy Power had us at 40/1 for a top 2 finish after Blackburn 0-0, but since the mid week results we were 16/1. Interesting to see what we we'll be tomorrow if the Green Army hold on to this result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midfield_General Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Zero. Whatever Leicester's result against Plymouth ends up being has absolutely no bearing on what we do, and the way that we defend means we won’t win enough games. It won’t even be close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 All we need to do is win the next game. And the next. And the next. And the… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamesaint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 The Sky commentator on Plymouth v Leicester thinks that we are still in the race for automatic promotion. Clearly he is not a member of Saintsweb. 😂😂 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 20 minutes ago, Tamesaint said: The Sky commentator on Plymouth v Leicester thinks that we are still in the race for automatic promotion. Clearly he is not a member of Saintsweb. 😂😂 It’s a funny ol’ game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugenhagen Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 5 hours ago, Saint86 said: Haha, yes agreed. I thought our chances were better when i started writing it... and then i just adopted a "i've started so i'll finish" mentality by the end 😂 Wish the same mentality could be used by our football team 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forester Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Be good fun to keep it running as long as we can, and good I think in terms of being “in the groove” if we end up in play offs, which remains most likely outcome. However with that Plymouth win, it now means that if we win our remaining games (unlikely, but not impossible as it is six not sixteen), and by virtue of two of them being against Leicester and Leeds, essentially we need each of our rivals to lose just one more of their other games. All this is unlikely but you cannot now say there is no chance. Slim, yes, but no longer ridiculous. What is helping is that 19 or 20 teams have something still to play for, so Plymouth, Millwall, QPR, Brizzle have all enjoyed wins over top four sides recently and who is to say there won’t be more of these results as sides fight for their lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Leicester really choking under pressure. Let’s just say we have won our two games in hand hypothetically, and we were on 84 points now, it would look a lot better but even wins against Leicester and Leeds probably wouldn’t be enough. That Ipswich game in particular killed us. At the time i said a late Ipswich winner wouldn’t make much difference to our hopes of autos. Now I’m not so sure. Autos isn’t happening but it would be typical Saints to string us along for a while yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skintsaint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Knowing us we would probably get back amongst it then fuck up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErwinK1961 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 3 minutes ago, Forester said: Be good fun to keep it running as long as we can, and good I think in terms of being “in the groove” if we end up in play offs, which remains most likely outcome. However with that Plymouth win, it now means that if we win our remaining games (unlikely, but not impossible as it is six not sixteen), and by virtue of two of them being against Leicester and Leeds, essentially we need each of our rivals to lose just one more of their other games. All this is unlikely but you cannot now say there is no chance. Slim, yes, but no longer ridiculous. What is helping is that 19 or 20 teams have something still to play for, so Plymouth, Millwall, QPR, Brizzle have all enjoyed wins over top four sides recently and who is to say there won’t be more of these results as sides fight for their lives I could see all three of Leicester, Leeds and Ipswich dropping more points. Theres just absolutely zero possibility we’ll win all 6 of our remaining games. Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Just now, SNSUN said: Leicester really choking under pressure. Let’s just say we have won our two games in hand hypothetically, and we were on 84 points now, it would look a lot better but even wins against Leicester and Leeds probably wouldn’t be enough. That Ipswich game in particular killed us. At the time i said a late Ipswich winner wouldn’t make much difference to our hopes of autos. Now I’m not so sure. Autos isn’t happening but it would be typical Saints to string us along for a while yet. It was the Boro and Blackburn draws that have done for us, add those 4 points and win the two games in hand and you have the 10 points that we are adrift ! Bloody annoying……win tomorrow and Ipswich or Leeds fail to win and there’s a slim chance I suppose ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Are we really still kicking this can down the street....? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 8 hours ago, Saint86 said: I thought i'd post this now (in my hubirs before watford crush any slither of a chance)... I wanted to see just what the chances were of a Saints automatic promotion. The answer, i think, is bloody unlikely.... 😄 May be of interest - https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ So, the following begins with one very large premise / "if" statement... and then continues down that path.... That Premise, or "if" statement, is that Martin is about to morph into the 2nd coming of Guardiola and we somehow manage to win every game.... Then we'd get to 96 points!!! Woop woop!! promotion is on the cards right?!?! Sadly probably not.., although i think almost certainly secure 3rd regardless, which does perhaps give us benefits in the playoff draw? But anyway, in that perfect run in scenario, our rivals for automatics would likely only be Leeds and Leicester. I'm dismissing Ipswich right now for a few reasons (i think they're shitter than the table suggests, am bitter that they got 2 wins against us, and think they'll drop points... there i said it...) But fair play if they can get through some fairly tough fixtures to keep pace with the other 2 as well... Will make the playoff final even sweeter when we send them packing! So then, for what i assume will be the top 2 - how many points will we really need to catch them>>> (For the sake of argument, the following all also include Saints beating Leicester and Leeds). Leicester (Plymouth (a), WBA (a), Saints (h), Preston (a), Blackburn (h). Of note perhaps, is that WBA to Preston is 10day period with 3 reasonably tricky games - and yes, i know our run is worse! Scenarios: Leicester finish above us - very likely (see below) Leicester with an additional loss (lets say WBA away) hit 97points and finish above us - Irrelevant, but may happen i guess. Alternatively, Leicester with two draws 96 points and a significantly better GD - We still aren't catching them... Leicester with one loss and and a draw (you're looking for Preston (A) or Blackburn (H - final day) for that draw mind...) would hit 95points and we could catch them... again, i think this could maybe happen, but very unlikely... Leeds (Blackburn(H), Boro(A), QPR (A) Leeds with an additional loss (lets say Boro away) hit 93points and we can catch them - I can't see this at all. Leeds with an additional draw (lets also say Boro away) hit 95points - Could happen but i still can't really see this. It would also supercharge the last game and make it very hard to get that win at Elland Road (imagine the late night fireworks etc). In this scenario we can catch them and get 2nd though. Yay, party! Leeds win every game bar saints, they hit 96points and finish above us due to their vastly superior goal difference - I see this as a pretty likely outcome for those matches lets be honest. All in all, we have to go on a crazy run with no real evidence that we're capable of it, and we need the other teams to do pretty poorly (by their standards this season)... sadly just one set of dropped points out of the boro, ipswich, and blackburn results would have made the difference... Couldn’t you have put all that effort into finding us some cheap hotel deals in West Bromwich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toussaint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I always had faith in Russ, or maybe I never did, or maybe I have flip flopped, but one thing I can be certain of, is one of those things is true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 It’s one hell of a long shot. I think if we win the last 6 games, we probably just make it. The useful thing - even if we end up 4th - is we aren’t out of it yet. I was worried we’d go into the playoffs having been on the beach for 6/7 matches. But, for now at least, it’s not half a dozen utterly pointless matches followed by the playoff semi. They are only slightly pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 i wonder if there is a realistic sequence of results which ends up Leeds being promoted before the last game of the season, creating an easier game for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 If we win every game we'll go up automatically. But we won't win every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixedkebab Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) If Russell Harty continues playing 2 full backs in full back positions we have a vague chance, but this league is mental as fuck, could come unstuck in the unlikeliest of games as with the Millwall or Rotherham at home. the play off dates remain firmly in the diary Edited April 12 by Mixedkebab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKsaint Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 (edited) I think we only have the right to choose who (Leicester or Leeds) we are going to play with in the playoff. We have already chosen not to play with Ipswich there. Edited April 13 by HKsaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusic Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 Playoff wise I think we would b better finishing 4th than 3rd. For autos it such a shame we don't just have 3 points more. We would be right in the mix then. Such fine margins and for that reason find it hard to understand the strength of critisism for Martin - we could score in the 90s which everyone would have said was a top season if offered in August, and not go up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie May Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 Leicester should have destroyed Plymouth last night. So one-sided and the Pilgrims clearly rode their luck. You just know they’ll bring Coady back into the side for the Saints game. He always does well against us. And you can bet your house on a Vardy brace. I don’t think we’ll have the bottle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie May Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 1 hour ago, Dusic said: Playoff wise I think we would b better finishing 4th than 3rd. For autos it such a shame we don't just have 3 points more. We would be right in the mix then. Such fine margins and for that reason find it hard to understand the strength of critisism for Martin - we could score in the 90s which everyone would have said was a top season if offered in August, and not go up. Spot on. Martin has achieved what exactly I predicted at the start of the season, and I’m sure most fans would’ve bitten their hands off for a playoff place. I just want the players to go into the run in thinking they can win every game. RM has to instil that into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Convict Colony Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carljack Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 The answer to the conundrum is automatic promotion is a general 16/1 with most bookmakers and promotion a 6/4 poke. I suppose it comes down to who can hold their nerve the best in the coming weeks,we have played better since our chance seemed to have vanished and at some stage that pressure will return,will we bottle it again ? hope not,but if we win today and on Tuesday 16/1 could be more like 6/1 depending on other results.Hold on tight the SFC Rollercoaster is in town.😬 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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