Catching Leicester

[CB Fry]

We've already conceded more goals than pretty much every automatically promoted team in the last decade or so. And we have 11 still to play.

We're fourth, not in some one on one shoot out for top. We have Ipswich and Leeds to get past.

But yeah you can have a fucking great time sticking it to me when you prove me wrong and we lift the title. Enjoy it x x 

Edited 2 March, 2024 by CB Fry
Sorry no need to quote anyone

[S-Clarke]

2 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

We've already conceded more goals than pretty much every automatically promoted team in the last decade or so. And we have 11 still to play.

We're fourth, not in some one on one shoot out for top. We have Ipswich and Leeds to get past.

But yeah you can have a fucking great time sticking it to me when you prove me wrong and we ligmft the title. Enjoy it x x 

You misread my post, I said we've had our chance (our opportunity is gone) I honestly felt Leicester would wobble at some point, and we just felt invincible at the time - but we didn't take our chance, so I'm not here still saying we're going to catch them. We're not, done and dusted.

But had we done our job in games you'd bank us for (Millwall for one), then it would have been very, very, very interesting. Even just winning against Millwall would have put us to within 5 points of them. They've had more of a wobble than I thought they'd have!

Edited 2 March, 2024 by S-Clarke

[CB Fry]

37 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

You misread my post, I said we've had our chance (our opportunity is gone) I honestly felt Leicester would wobble at some point, and we just felt invincible at the time - but we didn't take our chance, so I'm not here still saying we're going to catch them. We're not, done and dusted.

But had we done our job in games you'd bank us for (Millwall for one), then it would have been very, very, very interesting. Even just winning against Millwall would have put us to within 5 points of them. They've had more of a wobble than I thought they'd have!

Yes sorry, should not have quoted you

[Lighthouse]

From the top four, everyone is pretty much in touch of everyone else, with the exception of the Saints to Leicester gap. Even with today's surprise at the KP it's still not really on.

I honestly couldn't pick the autos now. I'm almost certain two teams wont catch Leicester, so they'll be there. As for the rest... Ipswich could very easily win the league or come fourth.

[Cabrone]

After the last run of games we will struggle to get top 2. Ipswich have a nice run in and have put themselves back in a good position. We absolutely need to win the games at Leicester and Ipswich and I can't see it. Too many weaknesses in this team. Never say never though.

[SNSUN]

Funny if we caught Leicester as we sailed past them into 3rd. I apologise to Ipswich fans for thinking their team would drop away. They're making a real go of it.

Edited 2 March, 2024 by SNSUN

[SaintTex]

21 minutes ago, Cabrone said:

After the last run of games we will struggle to get top 2. Ipswich have a nice run in and have put themselves back in a good position. We absolutely need to win the games at Leicester and Ipswich and I can't see it. Too many weaknesses in this team. Never say never though.

it's a funny ole game, you know? anything could happen.

We could finish the season on a 12 match unbeaten streak -  or not

who predicted the 20something unbeaten streak back in Sept?

[Dark Munster]

36 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Funny if we caught Leicester as we sailed past them into 3rd. I apologise to Ipswich fans for thinking their team would drop away. They're making a real go of it.

I'm not sure if I'd find it funny if Ipswich and Leeds grab the two auto spots, and we have to try to get past Hull and Leicester in the playoffs!

That being said, if we did manage to go up at Leicester's expense it would be beyond hilarious.

[Jack]

One flukey win against relegation fodder and people are getting excited about a run for the title? Not for me. That’s 16 goals conceded in 7 games, a harder run in than Ipswich (5 wins on the spin) and Leeds (9 wins from 10). 
 

We’ll be comfortably 4th IMO

[Fabrice29]

20 minutes ago, Jack said:

One flukey win against relegation fodder and people are getting excited about a run for the title? Not for me. That’s 16 goals conceded in 7 games, a harder run in than Ipswich (5 wins on the spin) and Leeds (9 wins from 10). 
 

We’ll be comfortably 4th IMO

Try and enjoy the football mate, it's fun for the first (and maybe for quite a while) time in years.

[Dark Munster]

23 minutes ago, Jack said:

One flukey win against relegation fodder and people are getting excited about a run for the title? Not for me. That’s 16 goals conceded in 7 games, a harder run in than Ipswich (5 wins on the spin) and Leeds (9 wins from 10). 
 

We’ll be comfortably 4th IMO

Who would that be?

[Jack]

1 minute ago, Fabrice29 said:

Try and enjoy the football mate, it's fun for the first (and maybe for quite a while) time in years.

Hull and Millwall were absolutely no fun at all. Liverpool was fun, but disappointing and a missed opportunity. Sadly didn’t go today, the 90+5 onwards would’ve been fun but watching that defensive display wasn’t. 
 

We’re looking like throwing away a great chance of auto promotion because of a misguided obsession with a flawed philosophy IMO. Just let people be concerned with that if they want to be. A long stretch stranded in the Championship won’t be much fun either 

[sfc4prem]

1 minute ago, Jack said:

Hull and Millwall were absolutely no fun at all. Liverpool was fun, but disappointing and a missed opportunity. Sadly didn’t go today, the 90+5 onwards would’ve been fun but watching that defensive display wasn’t. 
 

We’re looking like throwing away a great chance of auto promotion because of a misguided obsession with a flawed philosophy IMO. Just let people be concerned with that if they want to be. A long stretch stranded in the Championship won’t be much fun either 

You're not saying anything revolutionary, mate. We can all see the prospect of a long stay in the Championship as an unfavourable possibility.

 

You just don't see half of us banging on about it. Quite frankly, it's more enjoyable to see the positives now after a long time without any to experience.

[S-Clarke]

2 hours ago, Cabrone said:

After the last run of games we will struggle to get top 2. Ipswich have a nice run in and have put themselves back in a good position. We absolutely need to win the games at Leicester and Ipswich and I can't see it. Too many weaknesses in this team. Never say never though.

I think the run in will be quite interesting, a lot of people have lots of games as bankers for our rivals - but it's the run in, there is almost half of the league in a relegation battle - there are simply no easy games for any team, apart from if you've got Rotherham!

No one had Leeds dropping points against Huddersfield, nor did they have QPR beating Leicester. It's silly season now, nothing goes by the form book or league position.

Edited 2 March, 2024 by S-Clarke

[Fabrice29]

34 minutes ago, Jack said:

Hull and Millwall were absolutely no fun at all. Liverpool was fun, but disappointing and a missed opportunity. Sadly didn’t go today, the 90+5 onwards would’ve been fun but watching that defensive display wasn’t. 
 

We’re looking like throwing away a great chance of auto promotion because of a misguided obsession with a flawed philosophy IMO. Just let people be concerned with that if they want to be. A long stretch stranded in the Championship won’t be much fun either 

Not everything has to be or will be perfect. We won't win everything, but despite your "we'll lose more than we win" claim, we literally are unable to do so even if we lost our final 11 games. 

[SNSUN]

4 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

I think the run in will be quite interesting, a lot of people have lots of games as bankers for our rivals - but it's the run in, there is almost half of the league in a relegation battle - there are simply no easy games for any team, apart from if you've got Rotherham!

No one had Leeds dropping points against Huddersfield, nor did they have QPR beating Leicester. It's silly season now, nothing goes by the form book or league position.

Nope - and while those results may be blips compared to our recent 'capitulation', it shows that going forwards with Downes back, Bree back and soon (hopefully) KWP back (as well as Fraser for the last few games), that anything can happen, especially as we have to play all 3 ahead of us.

Keep the pace, Keep the faith. (TM SNSUN) 

[trousers]

 

 

[Noodles34]

I think I read or heard somewhere that the club were not giving refunds to those that cannot make the rearranged date, which I find hard to believe. Anyone know if there is any truth in that? 

[SaintNewForest]

13 minutes ago, Noodles34 said:

I think I read or heard somewhere that the club were not giving refunds to those that cannot make the rearranged date, which I find hard to believe. Anyone know if there is any truth in that? 

Its true, but I think thats instigated by Leicester. We're usually pretty good at refunds for rearranged games. 

[Harry_SFC]

12 minutes ago, SaintNewForest said:

Its true, but I think thats instigated by Leicester. We're usually pretty good at refunds for rearranged games. 

Not surprised. Seems like they need every penny they can get.

[Harry_SFC]

1 hour ago, trousers said:

 

 

Just hoping the Preston game is re-arranged for the week before this and not the week after.

[Convict Colony]

Not read the thread recently but assume someone has already done the joke that the football league has already caught Leicester.

 

[Eric The Red]

1 hour ago, Harry_SFC said:

Just hoping the Preston game is re-arranged for the week before this and not the week after.

I'm hoping it's not the week before as I'm away. 

Any date will cheese off a fair number of us sadly.

[Smirking_Saint]

I was being questioned about the fact that Id pointed out Leicester’s financial irregularities early season, and that the talk, within footballing circles, was that they would struggle in the Championship financially 

I was very surprised that they were able to reinforced so effectively. And agree, couldn’t respond to those of you calling me out for being ill informed

But here we are… chickens come home to roost I suppose… we obviously hadn’t factored in PL/EFL incompetence around financial management

Hopefully we’ll see the breach answered this season but… I doubt it.. so do many that know what they’re on about… seems it’ll probably be punishable from next season so who fucking knows what happens then

Only reprieve is there is a SLIGHT chance the EFL attempt to challenge the ruling this year but legally I think it gets tied up too long

[Weston Super Saint]

23 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

I was being questioned about the fact that Id pointed out Leicester’s financial irregularities early season, and that the talk, within footballing circles, was that they would struggle in the Championship financially 

I was very surprised that they were able to reinforced so effectively. And agree, couldn’t respond to those of you calling me out for being ill informed

But here we are… chickens come home to roost I suppose… we obviously hadn’t factored in PL/EFL incompetence around financial management

Hopefully we’ll see the breach answered this season but… I doubt it.. so do many that know what they’re on about… seems it’ll probably be punishable from next season so who fucking knows what happens then

Only reprieve is there is a SLIGHT chance the EFL attempt to challenge the ruling this year but legally I think it gets tied up too long

So the chickens haven't come home to roost then  

[Smirking_Saint]

7 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

So the chickens haven't come home to roost then  

Well… suppose you’re right 😂

Unfortunately its not going to happen in our favour imo

[Doctoroncall]

39 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

So the chickens haven't come home to roost then  

Looking at next season when already promoted. So probably a poultry fine…. Boom tish!

[OttawaSaint]

35 minutes ago, Smirking_Saint said:

Well… suppose you’re right 😂

Unfortunately its not going to happen in our favour imo

These things are so stupid. Two of us, Leeds, Ipswich, Hull etc. could be badly affected by this cheating and won't benefit from the punishment.

[Smirking_Saint]

31 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

These things are so stupid. Two of us, Leeds, Ipswich, Hull etc. could be badly affected by this cheating and won't benefit from the punishment.

Basically its the Everton situation 

Which is why rules were changed for this year

[Pamplemousse]

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/

 

We have a 7.3% chance of automatic promotion apparently. It was only 5.8% last weekend so our odds are trending upwards.

[Ted Bates Statue]

18 minutes ago, Pamplemousse said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/

 

We have a 7.3% chance of automatic promotion apparently. It was only 5.8% last weekend so our odds are trending upwards.

Yeah we're probably going for the playoffs now. I know it's fun to look at, but these kind of predictions never seem brave enough to suggest the team in 2nd or 3rd is likely to pip the team in 1st place. Invariably they seem heavily based on whatever the league table looks like at the present time. Leicester are having a pretty big wobble but they seem happy to have written off Ipswich for auto promotion, in favour of the top spot incumbents. I bet you this time last year, they would have predicted Arsenal to go all the way in the premier league.

So my analysis is that this is all too close to call, and the Opta Supercomputer is just re-hashing the current league table. I would have been interested to see their predictions going back to Xmas, but they seem not to have deemed them worthy of inclusion. Make of that what you will.

[Saint_clark]

10 hours ago, Pamplemousse said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/

 

We have a 7.3% chance of automatic promotion apparently. It was only 5.8% last weekend so our odds are trending upwards.

Seems a little on the low side, we're only 6 points behind with a game in hand and we play all three of the sides above us. 

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, Saint_clark said:

Seems a little on the low side, we're only 6 points behind with a game in hand and we play all three of the sides above us. 

Or...

Seems pretty much spot on seeing as we are 6 points behind with only one game in hand and we still have to play all of the current top three sides, all away from home.

[Eric The Red]

15 hours ago, Pamplemousse said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/championship-predictions-promotion-relegation/

 

We have a 7.3% chance of automatic promotion apparently. It was only 5.8% last weekend so our odds are trending upwards.

I think those odds slightly underestimate our chances but then I'm biased 🙂

Another way of looking at those odds is that there will be horses winning at Cheltenham this week with less chance according to the bookies

[Turkish]

Well they could be third tonight with 8 game left. So it was possible if we hadn’t collapsed as well

[Saint Matty 76]

https://twitter.com/JPercyTelegraph/status/1775206928324477328?t=tyqRq-KMkA2t9ZzCfL7_6g&s=19

They are truly fucked. Worse financials than Everton/Forest

Edited 2 April, 2024 by Saint Matty 76

[ErwinK1961]

17 minutes ago, Saint Matty 76 said:

https://twitter.com/JPercyTelegraph/status/1775206928324477328?t=tyqRq-KMkA2t9ZzCfL7_6g&s=19

They are truly fucked. Worse financials than Everton/Forest

Jesus. If they don’t go up, they must be absolutely done.

[coalman]

3 minutes ago, ErwinK1961 said:

Jesus. If they don’t go up, they must be absolutely done.

Even if they go up they almost need to get in the Champions League the season after.

[ErwinK1961]

3 minutes ago, coalman said:

Even if they go up they almost need to get in the Champions League the season after.

True, though a points deduction whilst pocketing another £150m of tv money softens the blow. If they don’t go up hard to see where they go - shame they’ll probably end up going up.

[Sheaf Saint]

3 hours ago, ErwinK1961 said:

True, though a points deduction whilst pocketing another £150m of tv money softens the blow. If they don’t go up hard to see where they go - shame they’ll probably end up going up.

With recent form and other results, I wouldn't be surprised to see them ending up 3rd. And I would rather we played them in the playoffs than Leeds or Ipswich TBH.

[FarehamSaintJames]

Can we re-name this thread "The Run-In"?

[FarehamSaintJames]

Ok so, for absolutely no other reason, other than my wife takes ages to get ready to go out, here's what I've come up with for the remaining fixtures this season for the top four:
Ipswich: Currently 87 points, prediction 101 points
A Norwich - 1 point
H Watford - 3 points
H Middlesbrough - 3 points
A Hull - 1 point
A Coventry - 3 points
H Huddersfield - 3 points
 

Leeds: Currently 86 points, prediction 102 points
A Coventry - 1 point
H Sunderland - 3 points
H Blackburn - 3 points
A Middlesbrough - 3 points
A QPR - 3 points
H Southampton - 3 points

Leicester: Currently 85 points, prediction 102 points
H Birmingham - 3 points
A Millwall - 3 points
A Plymouth - 3 points
H West Brom - 1 point
H Southampton - 3 points
A Preston - 1 point
H Blackburn - 3 points

Southampton: currently 74 points, prediction 88 points
A Blackburn - 3 points
H Coventry - 1 point
H Watford - 3 points
H Preston - 1 point
A Cardiff - 3 points
A Leicester - 0 points
H Stoke - 3 points
A Leeds - 0 points

We've all known for some time that we are massively cut adrift from everyone else now. The race for the top three will be an incredible watch.
Anyone that is clinging on hope of a chance for the top two is truly deluded.
As Russell Martin has said "It can be an exciting end to the season" - for three teams.

[SNSUN]

2 minutes ago, FarehamSaintJames said:

Ok so, for absolutely no other reason, other than my wife takes ages to get ready to go out, here's what I've come up with for the remaining fixtures this season for the top four:
Ipswich: Currently 87 points, prediction 101 points
A Norwich - 1 point
H Watford - 3 points
H Middlesbrough - 3 points
A Hull - 1 point
A Coventry - 3 points
H Huddersfield - 3 points
 

Leeds: Currently 86 points, prediction 102 points
A Coventry - 1 point
H Sunderland - 3 points
H Blackburn - 3 points
A Middlesbrough - 3 points
A QPR - 3 points
H Southampton - 3 points

Leicester: Currently 85 points, prediction 102 points
H Birmingham - 3 points
A Millwall - 3 points
A Plymouth - 3 points
H West Brom - 1 point
H Southampton - 3 points
A Preston - 1 point
H Blackburn - 3 points

Southampton: currently 74 points, prediction 88 points
A Blackburn - 3 points
H Coventry - 1 point
H Watford - 3 points
H Preston - 1 point
A Cardiff - 3 points
A Leicester - 0 points
H Stoke - 3 points
A Leeds - 0 points

We've all known for some time that we are massively cut adrift from everyone else now. The race for the top three will be an incredible watch.
Anyone that is clinging on hope of a chance for the top two is truly deluded.
As Russell Martin has said "It can be an exciting end to the season" - for three teams.

Being optimistic I have us finishing on 90 points and finishing 4th, which is insane when you think about it, 2 seasons ago it would have been enough to win the League. Such a weird season with 3 other teams smashing it.

[S-Clarke]

I've always stood by the feeling that we'll end up high 80's, low 90's points wise. As SNSUN said above, in most seasons enough for 2nd no worries.

We just couldn't maintain the pace of the top 3, we did for a little bit which allowed us back in there (we needed a 26 game unbeaten run to do it though), but then we just fell through the floor before we could even start to create any breathing space. Pretty relentless up their this year, we just haven't been good enough to sustain it which is disappointing given the quality we have.

Edited 6 April, 2024 by S-Clarke

[obelisk]

I'm not bothered with looking up the table now. Saints have blown any chance of automatic promotion.

Given the recent poor form it's now more important to look at those teams behind Saints with a view to holding on to 4th place. A 2nd leg at home in the play-offs could be important.

[S-Clarke]

1 minute ago, obelisk said:

I'm not bothered with looking up the table now. Saints have blown any chance of automatic promotion.

Given the recent poor form it's now more important to look at those teams behind Saints with a view to holding on to 4th place. A 2nd leg at home in the play-offs could be important.

We'll end the season stranded in 4th, I'm pretty confident on that one.

[FarehamSaintJames]

It’s going to be a mad end for the top three teams!

[LGTL]

We’ll have a big say in who goes up by obviously losing at Leicester and Leeds. It’ll be an exciting finish for those 3 that’s for sure. Cheers for fucking it up Russ.

[Lymington Saint]

So given that we aren't going to finish top 2, who do we want to finish 3rd?  i.e. assuming that we don't mess up the play-off semis (big if given our current collapse in form). then who do we want to play at Wembley.  My view is that our best chance is if Ipswich finish 3rd - even though we have lost to them twice this season.  

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, Lymington Saint said:

So given that we aren't going to finish top 2, who do we want to finish 3rd?  i.e. assuming that we don't mess up the play-off semis (big if given our current collapse in form). then who do we want to play at Wembley.  My view is that our best chance is if Ipswich finish 3rd - even though we have lost to them twice this season.  

3rd or 4th, do not care. We will probably mess it up and not even get to wembley anyway