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Catching Leicester


Barsiem
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3 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:
  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts

I like these optimistic threads but...

Not wanting to piss on your bonfire but a lot of bookies have these games priced up already. A Saints/Draw/Saints treble pays about 8/1.

That's a long enough shot - let alone the umpteen games after that...

Can't wait for when the BBC puts up their 'who's gonna win the league/get relegated' predictor page. You know - the thing where people spend 10 mins filling out the scores of 100-odd games and then solemnly declare that xxx team will stay up by 1 point.

Interestingly the bookies have Leeds as favs to beat Leicester. I think there's def some value in the Leicester price. I'd have it as more of a coin-flip game. Especially after Leicester bottled it today. Can't see them losing 2 in a row after the season they've had so far. We shall see...

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leeds-v-leicester/winner

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7 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen.

I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below:

Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts

  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts
  • Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts
  • Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts
  • Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts
  • Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts
  • Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts

I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely!

What do you think?

What are Leeds and Ipswich doing in this scenario? 

I guess just, you know, losing and drawing and shit.

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These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

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It’s just about possible, but vanishingly unlikely unless we beat them at their place.

If we manage that, it is maybe a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to catch them?

Obviously, that’s to catch Leicester. To win the league, we also need to be ahead of Leeds & Ipswich. So even if Leicester lose all their remaining matches, that doesn’t gift Saints 1st place.

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5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

If we win our game in hand and beat them at the KingPower, we’d be 5 points behind them with 12 other matches to play.

Big ifs…but seems to me to be just doable in those circumstances, but we’d need to be pretty faultless and require them to slip up a little.

If we don’t win at their place, it does start to seem barely conceivable possibility - a mathematical chance, but hardly a real one.

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If you think bookies’ odds are a reasonable guide to probabilities, we are currently 9/1 to win the league (ie a 10% chance). So maybe I was even a little bit pessimistic in my posts above.

I guess we’d be maybe 3/1 to win at their place?

If you wave some magic wand and “make that happen”, that would suggest we’d then be about 3 or 4/1 to win the league.

Edited by SaintBobby
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Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. 

All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so....

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4 minutes ago, stknowle said:

Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. 

All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so....

I think the bookies are about right, we have maybe a 15% chance of catching them (and a 10% chance of winning the league)

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If course we can catch them. However it would require us to go on a run of winning all but 1/2 of our remaining games. They would need an implosion of sorts, which can happen... We sort of did it ourselves when we allowed reading to come from 8 points behind to beat us to the top spot!

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8 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen.

I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below:

Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts

  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts
  • Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts
  • Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts
  • Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts
  • Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts
  • Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts

I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely!

What do you think?

Thank you @SaintJackoInHurworthfor the upbeat way of looking at these fixtures. It’s very unlikely but not impossible as you say.

Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm!

Especially here with the resident living dead that thrive on morsels such as your post. 

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. 
 

Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. 

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16 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm!

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

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8 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

I disagree look at how Sog has ended global racism by calling out the Tommy Robinson supporters on the lounge. 

Edited by Turkish
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30 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

Hilarious and well informed as ever.😇

No didn’t realise that what people think has no impact on results. Thanks for the update. And just in case I was thinking I was someone else, again thank you for letting me know I’m not Rosa Parks. You are a kind person that’s for sure. 
 

Don’t know what I or this forum would do without you being so helpful - especially now you consider me a mate, what with your info knowledge and suggestions about stuff. 😇

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Who knows ?

Leicester have been going along untroubled with no pressure. 2 defeats in a row and they might start to feel the heat. 2 defeats can lead to 4 you know. Leeds look unstoppable at the moment with their improved away form but so did Saints until Bristol. Ipswich look over their bad spell. As for the play offs I'd  have bitten your hand off before the season started to be a shoe in with 14 games to go. If we got to the final it would be a new experience. A good one or not I'll  tell you after.

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1 hour ago, Doctoroncall said:

After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. 
 

Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. 

That's presuming things stay as they are. They never stay as they are. 

Edited by JustinR
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It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. 

Leicester 78

Saints 73 

Leeds 72 

Ipswich 72 

In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. 

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5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. 

Leicester 78

Saints 73 

Leeds 72 

Ipswich 72 

In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. 

It would be like going back to the table early in September.

Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon.

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22 minutes ago, sfc4prem said:

It would be like going back to the table early in September.

Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon.

If they lose to Leeds next week then they will be thinking they have to avoid defeat to us at all costs. Even a draw to us in that scenario could leave Leeds or Ipswich just three behind them. 

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Just now, SaintsFan86 said:

The fans mentality... That's why I said this forum has a tinpot mentality. 

 

what, by saying we are not catching Leicester? It is reality. Not sure fans comments on here make any difference to anything what so ever.

but anyway, hey ho

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Lots of If's, But's and Maybe's here but, should Leeds win, us and Ipswich win BOTH our games this week, then table will look like this (GD guess)

#    Team                  Pl     W     D    L     F     A     GD    Pts
1    Leicester City    34    25    3    6    70    28    42    78
2    Southampton    34    22    7    5    67    39    28    73                    
3    Leeds United    34    22    6    6    63    27    36    72                                            
4    Ipswich Town    34    21    9    4    65    42    23    72

Surely we all wants Leeds to win? This would be well exciting and also, keep us in control of our own destiny and still give us a chance to win the league.

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This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

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8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:

This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

will the added pressure cause saints to make mistakes?

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8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:
9 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:

This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

They've lost five games after 33 matches, do you seriously see them losing another 3/4 in the next 15? 

 

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Catching Leicester

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