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Catching Leicester

Barsiem

By Barsiem
in The Saints

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Rut

Rut

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:
  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts

I like these optimistic threads but...

Not wanting to piss on your bonfire but a lot of bookies have these games priced up already. A Saints/Draw/Saints treble pays about 8/1.

That's a long enough shot - let alone the umpteen games after that...

Can't wait for when the BBC puts up their 'who's gonna win the league/get relegated' predictor page. You know - the thing where people spend 10 mins filling out the scores of 100-odd games and then solemnly declare that xxx team will stay up by 1 point.

Interestingly the bookies have Leeds as favs to beat Leicester. I think there's def some value in the Leicester price. I'd have it as more of a coin-flip game. Especially after Leicester bottled it today. Can't see them losing 2 in a row after the season they've had so far. We shall see...

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leeds-v-leicester/winner

CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen.

I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below:

Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts

  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts
  • Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts
  • Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts
  • Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts
  • Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts
  • Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts

I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely!

What do you think?

What are Leeds and Ipswich doing in this scenario? 

I guess just, you know, losing and drawing and shit.

Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted

These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

  • Like 2
SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted

It’s just about possible, but vanishingly unlikely unless we beat them at their place.

If we manage that, it is maybe a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to catch them?

Obviously, that’s to catch Leicester. To win the league, we also need to be ahead of Leeds & Ipswich. So even if Leicester lose all their remaining matches, that doesn’t gift Saints 1st place.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

If we win our game in hand and beat them at the KingPower, we’d be 5 points behind them with 12 other matches to play.

Big ifs…but seems to me to be just doable in those circumstances, but we’d need to be pretty faultless and require them to slip up a little.

If we don’t win at their place, it does start to seem barely conceivable possibility - a mathematical chance, but hardly a real one.

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you think bookies’ odds are a reasonable guide to probabilities, we are currently 9/1 to win the league (ie a 10% chance). So maybe I was even a little bit pessimistic in my posts above.

I guess we’d be maybe 3/1 to win at their place?

If you wave some magic wand and “make that happen”, that would suggest we’d then be about 3 or 4/1 to win the league.

Edited by SaintBobby
stknowle

stknowle

Posted
Posted

Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. 

All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so....

SaintBobby

SaintBobby

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, stknowle said:

Middlesborough's win yesterday was one of those freak results that happen from time to time where the best side doesn't win.. Leicester 24 shots 2 on target 1 goal. Boro 5 shots 2 on target 2 goals. Leicester missed 4 absolute golden chances. It won't be the first in a string of losses and draws as Leicester's form collapses. They will probably drop a few more points this season and so will we. We won't be catching Leicester. 

All that said doubtless there was a similar thread to this on Reading's forum ref their chances of catching us and Wham at about this time of the season we last got promoted from this division so....

I think the bookies are about right, we have maybe a 15% chance of catching them (and a 10% chance of winning the league)

Tauro

Tauro

Posted
Posted

If course we can catch them. However it would require us to go on a run of winning all but 1/2 of our remaining games. They would need an implosion of sorts, which can happen... We sort of did it ourselves when we allowed reading to come from 8 points behind to beat us to the top spot!

gio1saints

gio1saints

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

With Saints beating West Brom yesterday and Leicester coming unstuck against Middlesbrough, it begins to beg the question, can Saints catch Leicester? If so when could that happen.

I think it is possible, but I am under no illusion that it will be easy! I don't think we can do it before we play them though. However, if we can draw against them when we play them, it might be possible to catch them in the following game against Middlesbrough, as illustrated below:

Currently: Saints 67pts, Leicester 78pts

  • Saints beat Hull, Leicester no fixture -> Saints 70pts, Leicester 78pts
  • Leicester draw away to Leeds, Saints beat Millwall -> Saints 73pts, Leicester 79pts
  • Saints beat Brum away, Leicester beat QPR -> Saints 76pts, Leicester 82pts
  • Saints beat Preston at home, Leicester draw with Sunderland away -> Saints 79pts, Leicester 83pts
  • Saints beat Sunderland at home, Leicester draw with Hull away -> Saints 82pts, Leicester 84pts
  • Leicester v Saints - draw -> Saints 83pts, Leicester 85pts
  • Saints beat Middlesbro, Leicester draw away at Bristol City -> Saints 86pts, Leicester 86pts

I have to say that even if we can get level on points with them by then, with Ipswich away as our next match, getting above them by then is unlikely!

What do you think?

Thank you @SaintJackoInHurworthfor the upbeat way of looking at these fixtures. It’s very unlikely but not impossible as you say.

Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm!

Especially here with the resident living dead that thrive on morsels such as your post. 

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

These threes always pop up around this point in the season, regardless of our position and league. In the Premier League it was usually people dreaming up fantasy scenarios whereby dreadful teams at the bottom of the table suddenly start averaging top four form for the rest of the season and we get relegated, having been ten points above the drop zone in March.

We aren’t catching Leicester. We have consistently been 10-15 points behind all season and will remain so, even if they lose to Leeds and the gap ebbs and flows.

After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. 
 

Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. 

CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

Nothing great was ever achieved without one person choosing to think differently. Never stop defying the prevailing paradigm!

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

  • Haha 7
Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

I disagree look at how Sog has ended global racism by calling out the Tommy Robinson supporters on the lounge. 

Edited by Turkish
  • Haha 3
gio1saints

gio1saints

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

You realise that people writing on this forum has fuck all impact on our results or Leicester's or Leeds. Or anyone.

You're not Rosa Parks, mate.

Hilarious and well informed as ever.😇

No didn’t realise that what people think has no impact on results. Thanks for the update. And just in case I was thinking I was someone else, again thank you for letting me know I’m not Rosa Parks. You are a kind person that’s for sure. 
 

Don’t know what I or this forum would do without you being so helpful - especially now you consider me a mate, what with your info knowledge and suggestions about stuff. 😇

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Tom & Gerry

Tom & Gerry

Posted
Posted

Who knows ?

Leicester have been going along untroubled with no pressure. 2 defeats in a row and they might start to feel the heat. 2 defeats can lead to 4 you know. Leeds look unstoppable at the moment with their improved away form but so did Saints until Bristol. Ipswich look over their bad spell. As for the play offs I'd  have bitten your hand off before the season started to be a shoe in with 14 games to go. If we got to the final it would be a new experience. A good one or not I'll  tell you after.

JustinR

JustinR

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Doctoroncall said:

After September loses, we have caught up with them by something like three points and that was including our unbeaten run. Had to carry that to the end of the season to have had a chance but not going to turnover an eleven point gap in 14 games with Leicester suffering a collapse in form and results. Nice to dream but there is also Leeds and Ipswich to think about. 
 

Leicester are on course to achieve 104 to 108 points this season. 

That's presuming things stay as they are. They never stay as they are. 

Edited by JustinR
Toussaint

Toussaint

Posted
Posted

I’d be ecstatic with automatic promotion, even more so with a Wembley play off final victory. Winning the league has not entered my thoughts as a possibility. 

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted

It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. 

Leicester 78

Saints 73 

Leeds 72 

Ipswich 72 

In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. 

  • Like 1
sfc4prem

sfc4prem

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

It's not out of the question that were we to win our game in hand and beat Millwall, the table could be. 

Leicester 78

Saints 73 

Leeds 72 

Ipswich 72 

In that scenario I don't think anyone is guaranteeing Leicester the title. Could all change obviously but would be the closest anyone has come in a good while. 

It would be like going back to the table early in September.

Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon.

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, sfc4prem said:

It would be like going back to the table early in September.

Problem is that Leicester have players coming back from AFCON and actually played pretty well against Middlesbrough. Certainly can't see a dip in form on the horizon.

If they lose to Leeds next week then they will be thinking they have to avoid defeat to us at all costs. Even a draw to us in that scenario could leave Leeds or Ipswich just three behind them. 

AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
Just now, SaintsFan86 said:

The fans mentality... That's why I said this forum has a tinpot mentality. 

 

what, by saying we are not catching Leicester? It is reality. Not sure fans comments on here make any difference to anything what so ever.

but anyway, hey ho

east-stand-nic

east-stand-nic

Posted
Posted

Lots of If's, But's and Maybe's here but, should Leeds win, us and Ipswich win BOTH our games this week, then table will look like this (GD guess)

#    Team                  Pl     W     D    L     F     A     GD    Pts
1    Leicester City    34    25    3    6    70    28    42    78
2    Southampton    34    22    7    5    67    39    28    73                    
3    Leeds United    34    22    6    6    63    27    36    72                                            
4    Ipswich Town    34    21    9    4    65    42    23    72

Surely we all wants Leeds to win? This would be well exciting and also, keep us in control of our own destiny and still give us a chance to win the league.

  • Like 1
SaintsFan86

SaintsFan86

Posted
Posted

This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

  • Like 1
Lee On Solent Saint

Lee On Solent Saint

Posted
Posted

Anyone who wants Leeds to win really does need their heads wobbled. We are in a three way fight for second place. No amount of if's buts or maybe's is going to change that. It's second place or the play offs. That's the stark reality of it. 

  • Like 2
AlexLaw76

AlexLaw76

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:

This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

will the added pressure cause saints to make mistakes?

Lee On Solent Saint

Lee On Solent Saint

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:
9 minutes ago, SaintsFan86 said:

This week COULD be huge, saints om paper at least look likely to take 6 from the next 2 home games, and I'd back Leeds to beat Leicester at Elland Road comfortably.

All of a sudden we are 5 away from Leicster..

They wobble again the next game and get a draw and all of sudden they potentially only 3 points ahead of us, and 4 ahead of Leeds / Ipswich.

Its incredibly likely the added pressure will cause mistakes from Leicester too that they aren't used to so close to the end of the season.

They've lost five games after 33 matches, do you seriously see them losing another 3/4 in the next 15? 

 

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