Rotherham 0-2 Saints - Match Thread

[Fan The Flames]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

It's a moot point. If the three that came down last season go back up and the three that went up last season come back down it will probably confirm your suspicion and also the more general point that the more established teams in the PL are so far ahead of the Championship level that relegation and promotion are becoming an irritating necessity.

I'm not advocating for a closed league but where we go from there is challenging. Time for a two tier PL of 16 teams in each?

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/oct/30/premier-league-teams-promotion-relegation

[Whitey Grandad]

42 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/oct/30/premier-league-teams-promotion-relegation

Only 30 games a season?

[gio1saints]

15 hours ago, Turkish said:

I thought you said the games against Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds and WBA were free hits?

You misunderstood my post, probably deliberately for Bantz, but I will answer your Q. 

The comment was contingent on getting 92 + points from all the other games. And even then I said “surely”- which phrase as you know is rooted more in Hope than absolute firm conviction. 
 

As it is, with 17 games to go we appear on course for around 95 points ( assuming @ 2pts avg per game) 

We all know that 2pts a game - 34 points from the last 17 games - is not guaranteeing promotion but to finish on 95 points and come third would be unprecedented. Nothing contentious there.

34 points can be achieved by winning 11 drawing 1 losing 5 of our last 17 matches. We DO NOT Need to stay undefeated.  If we get to 95 and it’s enough to go up does not matter that we lost 5 games drew 1 - or to who in doing so. 

Easier for me to explain :  - we are currently on 61 points. 17 games to go. Suppose we win 13.of these. That means we end on 100 points.

Enough for promotion SURELY ? guess what - those four losers can be against the four teams you mention. See what I meant now?  

 

[AlexLaw76]

3 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

You misunderstood my post, probably deliberately for Bantz, but I will answer your Q. 

The comment was contingent on getting 92 + points from all the other games. And even then I said “surely”- which phrase as you know is rooted more in Hope than absolute firm conviction. 
 

As it is, with 17 games to go we appear on course for around 95 points ( assuming @ 2pts avg per game) 

We all know that 2pts a game - 34 points from the last 17 games - is not guaranteeing promotion but to finish on 95 points and come third would be unprecedented. Nothing contentious there.

34 points can be achieved by winning 11 drawing 1 losing 5 of our last 17 matches. We DO NOT Need to stay undefeated.  If we get to 95 and it’s enough to go up does not matter that we lost 5 games drew 1 - or to who in doing so. 

Easier for me to explain :  - we are currently on 61 points. 17 games to go. Suppose we win 13.of these. That means we end on 100 points.

Enough for promotion SURELY ? guess what - those four losers can be against the four teams you mention. See what I meant now?  

 

you assume we will continue this record breaking run/form....right into the hardest set of fixtures of the all the top 6 sides....

Lets see.

[Cabrone]

Looking at the table the autos are really reaching a boil now.

Leicester - on the surface they seem uncatchable with an 11 point lead over us but we have a game in hand and have to play them yet. It's not crazy to suggest that we could gain 6 on them reducing their lead to 5 which is 2 screw ups from us catching them. Odds are they will finish 1st but I haven't given up catching them yet. Also Leeds have to play them at Elland Road so Leicester are not out of this quite yet.

Ipswich - I still would not underestimate them despite their bad run over the last 1-2 months. They have the quality to get back on track, have made some good signings and may yet be a real problem, esp as we have to go to Portman Road. Their next few games are West Brom (h), Millwall (a) and Swansea (a). The first will be tough and the other 2 are potential banana skins. These games may be make or break for them but if they get through with 7-9 points they are still in it.

Leeds - IMO our biggest threat. Whilst our extra point + game in hand sounds good that final game at Elland road negates 3 of those points. All Leeds need to do is score 1 more point than us till that game and we may well be in a live decider (assuming Leicester\Ipswich are clear by then). Throw in the fact that we have some tough fixtures coming up and this scenario looks quite possible. GD could make a decisive difference but Leeds just need to stay within 5-6 goals of us (and visa versa) to make it competitive - which, IMO seems quite possible.

As for Leeds overtaking us to the extent that the final game becomes a dead rubber they'd need to be at least 4 points ahead of us which means they'd have to put at least 5 points on us over the next 17 games. With our current form - even with our tough fixtures - I think the odds are against. That said, Leeds are capable of going on the kind of run that we are now on which would make things really tight.

Saints - our big 4 crunch games are West Brom(a) 16 Feb, Leicester(a) 16 Mar, Ipswich (a) 1 Apr and Leeds (a) 4 May. These are the games that will decide it for us. IMO if we could get 5-6 points from the first 3 we might just be able to turn the the last one into a dead rubber. It's still far too tight to call though.

Hold on to your hats because I think this is going to be a wild ride.

[Turkish]

15 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

You misunderstood my post, probably deliberately for Bantz, but I will answer your Q. 

The comment was contingent on getting 92 + points from all the other games. And even then I said “surely”- which phrase as you know is rooted more in Hope than absolute firm conviction. 
 

As it is, with 17 games to go we appear on course for around 95 points ( assuming @ 2pts avg per game) 

We all know that 2pts a game - 34 points from the last 17 games - is not guaranteeing promotion but to finish on 95 points and come third would be unprecedented. Nothing contentious there.

34 points can be achieved by winning 11 drawing 1 losing 5 of our last 17 matches. We DO NOT Need to stay undefeated.  If we get to 95 and it’s enough to go up does not matter that we lost 5 games drew 1 - or to who in doing so. 

Easier for me to explain :  - we are currently on 61 points. 17 games to go. Suppose we win 13.of these. That means we end on 100 points.

Enough for promotion SURELY ? guess what - those four losers can be against the four teams you mention. See what I meant now?  

 

No it still doesn’t make any sense at all. As it stands we’d still need more than 92 points anyway. How in any world is it okay for us to lose all 4 games against direct rivals? 

Edited February 4 by Turkish

[gio1saints]

15 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

you assume we will continue this record breaking run/form....right into the hardest set of fixtures of the all the top 6 sides....

Lets see.

It’s just a harmless guessing game. 

Yep I assume that for purpose of the predictions of what might happen last 17 games that we average 2pts a match overall. (Ends on 95pts - is it enough for automatic- maybe perhaps possibly ..surely ?🤭) 

We can also do same for 1.5 pts a match and see what that means (c 86pts) and discuss if that’s enough or not. ( Not enough for auto imo) 

We can also assume we beat all those 4 tough teams away and a couple of other wins but somehow lose 7 draw 4 of the other games and see what happens. ( c 83 pts - not enough for auto imo) 

Heres another : Leicester and Leeds win all the their remaining matches ( incl v Saints) - bar the one they play at Eland road - they will get automatic imo. Likelihood of that happening - very low but not zero. 

Or any other combination possible. Keeps the mind occupied on a wet Sunday morning when I’m not reffing ! 😁
 

Edited February 4 by gio1saints

[Whitey Grandad]

17 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

You misunderstood my post, probably deliberately for Bantz, but I will answer your Q. 

The comment was contingent on getting 92 + points from all the other games. And even then I said “surely”- which phrase as you know is rooted more in Hope than absolute firm conviction. 
 

As it is, with 17 games to go we appear on course for around 95 points ( assuming @ 2pts avg per game) 

We all know that 2pts a game - 34 points from the last 17 games - is not guaranteeing promotion but to finish on 95 points and come third would be unprecedented. Nothing contentious there.

34 points can be achieved by winning 11 drawing 1 losing 5 of our last 17 matches. We DO NOT Need to stay undefeated.  If we get to 95 and it’s enough to go up does not matter that we lost 5 games drew 1 - or to who in doing so. 

Easier for me to explain :  - we are currently on 61 points. 17 games to go. Suppose we win 13.of these. That means we end on 100 points.

Enough for promotion SURELY ? guess what - those four losers can be against the four teams you mention. See what I meant now?  

 

Unprecedented doesn’t mean impossible. What’s to stop Leeds, Leicester or Ipswich getting 95 points, especially if they all beat us?

[gio1saints]

18 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Unprecedented doesn’t mean impossible. What’s to stop Leeds, Leicester or Ipswich getting 95 points, especially if they all beat us?

Nothing to stop that happening at all. It’s very possible. 

[saintant]

42 minutes ago, Cabrone said:

Looking at the table the autos are really reaching a boil now.

Leicester - on the surface they seem uncatchable with an 11 point lead over us but we have a game in hand and have to play them yet. It's not crazy to suggest that we could gain 6 on them reducing their lead to 5 which is 2 screw ups from us catching them. Odds are they will finish 1st but I haven't given up catching them yet. Also Leeds have to play them at Elland Road so Leicester are not out of this quite yet.

Ipswich - I still would not underestimate them despite their bad run over the last 1-2 months. They have the quality to get back on track, have made some good signings and may yet be a real problem, esp as we have to go to Portman Road. Their next few games are West Brom (h), Millwall (a) and Swansea (a). The first will be tough and the other 2 are potential banana skins. These games may be make or break for them but if they get through with 7-9 points they are still in it.

Leeds - IMO our biggest threat. Whilst our extra point + game in hand sounds good that final game at Elland road negates 3 of those points. All Leeds need to do is score 1 more point than us till that game and we may well be in a live decider (assuming Leicester\Ipswich are clear by then). Throw in the fact that we have some tough fixtures coming up and this scenario looks quite possible. GD could make a decisive difference but Leeds just need to stay within 5-6 goals of us (and visa versa) to make it competitive - which, IMO seems quite possible.

As for Leeds overtaking us to the extent that the final game becomes a dead rubber they'd need to be at least 4 points ahead of us which means they'd have to put at least 5 points on us over the next 17 games. With our current form - even with our tough fixtures - I think the odds are against. That said, Leeds are capable of going on the kind of run that we are now on which would make things really tight.

Saints - our big 4 crunch games are West Brom(a) 16 Feb, Leicester(a) 16 Mar, Ipswich (a) 1 Apr and Leeds (a) 4 May. These are the games that will decide it for us. IMO if we could get 5-6 points from the first 3 we might just be able to turn the the last one into a dead rubber. It's still far too tight to call though.

Hold on to your hats because I think this is going to be a wild ride.

I'm struggling to understand how the final game at Elland Road negates 3 points for us unless you are assuming we'll lose even before we set foot on the pitch. A strange outlook considering how well we have been playing since September. It may turn out that you are spot on but let's at least play the game before writing off our chances.

[Tamesaint]

3 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

you assume we will continue this record breaking run/form....right into the hardest set of fixtures of the all the top 6 sides....

Lets see.

Are we about to have our most difficult run of fixtures? If only you had told us. 😁😁😁

Who in particular are you scared of? Huddersfield at home hold few fears. Bristol City looked lethargic the other night against Leeds. WBA are inconsistent. They gave us problems at home but we have improved since then. 4 of the 5 games after WBA are then at Fortress St Mary's. 

We may not win all those games and our unbeaten run may even be ended but I don't think that we should be concerned about "tough" fixtures coming up. 

 

Edited February 4 by Tamesaint

[Badger]

19 hours ago, Harry_SFC said:

Would anyone take their keeper as our Number 2 next season? 

Definitely.
Not sure he’d only be back up if he joined us though. 

[Badger]

First half excellent. 

Second half we were a bit sloppy at times. But three points, onwards and upwards. Good day out - barring a hold up n the M1 out of Rotherham.

Locals very friendly bunch. 

[Badger]

Anyone else recognise the piper on the bridge with the bagpipes before the match ? He was also at Huddersfield.

Rotherham fan said he attends all home matches there playing for charity collection. He seems to spot a Saints fan from 100yards changing from Flower of Scotland/Scotland the brave to OWTS in an instant.

[ChrisPY]

2 hours ago, gio1saints said:

You misunderstood my post, probably deliberately for Bantz, but I will answer your Q. 

The comment was contingent on getting 92 + points from all the other games. And even then I said “surely”- which phrase as you know is rooted more in Hope than absolute firm conviction. 
 

As it is, with 17 games to go we appear on course for around 95 points ( assuming @ 2pts avg per game) 

We all know that 2pts a game - 34 points from the last 17 games - is not guaranteeing promotion but to finish on 95 points and come third would be unprecedented. Nothing contentious there.

34 points can be achieved by winning 11 drawing 1 losing 5 of our last 17 matches. We DO NOT Need to stay undefeated.  If we get to 95 and it’s enough to go up does not matter that we lost 5 games drew 1 - or to who in doing so. 

Easier for me to explain :  - we are currently on 61 points. 17 games to go. Suppose we win 13.of these. That means we end on 100 points.

Enough for promotion SURELY ? guess what - those four losers can be against the four teams you mention. See what I meant now?  

 

It’s going to finish Leicester 106, Leeds 94 and us 91. We’ll only lose to Leicester but then go out in the play off semi. 
KWP, Alcaraz and Sulemana money gets reinvested well and we get automatic promotion with 85 points next season.

[saintant]

4 minutes ago, ChrisPY said:

It’s going to finish Leicester 106, Leeds 94 and us 91. We’ll only lose to Leicester but then go out in the play off semi. 
KWP, Alcaraz and Sulemana money gets reinvested well and we get automatic promotion with 85 points next season.

Glad that's all sorted out then but you could have started with a spoiler alert - fair ruined the rest of this season for me.

[SNSUN]

3 hours ago, ChrisPY said:

It’s going to finish Leicester 106, Leeds 94 and us 91. We’ll only lose to Leicester but then go out in the play off semi. 
KWP, Alcaraz and Sulemana money gets reinvested well and we get automatic promotion with 85 points next season.

Leeds have the fire power but are more inconsistent than us and our defence at full strength is better than theirs. But they have Farke and he's been there and done that with promotions. I'd still bet on us to win the play-offs if we got there but I'd rather avoid that lottery. There's every chance that last day game against them at Elland Road could be crucial.

[Charlie Wayman]

3 hours ago, ChrisPY said:

It’s going to finish Leicester 106, Leeds 94 and us 91. We’ll only lose to Leicester but then go out in the play off semi. 
KWP, Alcaraz and Sulemana money gets reinvested well and we get automatic promotion with 85 points next season.

So in the next two seasons we play the first in the Championship and the second in the PL as opposed to the first in the PL and the second in the Championship, if we do better than you think. Will it really matter much in three season's time?

I suspect that we will have a mini-collapse on the run in simply because the first setback could have a devastating effect on team belief. Nevertheless we will win at Wembley, no question about that.

Edited February 4 by Charlie Wayman

[Whitey Grandad]

2 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

So in the next two seasons we play the first in the Championship and the second in the PL as opposed to the first in the PL and the second in the Championship, if we do better than you think. Will it really matter much in three season's time?

I suspect that we will have a mini-collapse on the run in simply because the first setback could have a devastating effect on team belief. Nevertheless we will win at Wembley, no question about that.

FA Cup final, playoff or both?

[JRM]

6 hours ago, SNSUN said:

Leeds have the fire power but are more inconsistent than us and our defence at full strength is better than theirs. But they have Farke and he's been there and done that with promotions. I'd still bet on us to win the play-offs if we got there but I'd rather avoid that lottery. There's every chance that last day game against them at Elland Road could be crucial.

[trousers]

On 03/02/2024 at 15:58, Sheaf Saint said:

Weirdly, there's no clock in this ground so you can't see the match time. There's a big screen with a running ribbon showing live scores elsewhere and replays of goals/chances, but no scoreboard or timer. We only knew it was 45 mins when the 4th official announced the stoppage time. Very odd. 

"It's behind you...!" 

 

[AlexLaw76]

9 hours ago, JRM said:

Exactly why the record breaking run, largely against the weaker teams, needed to be better than 1 point advantage over leeds

[Turkish]

9 hours ago, JRM said:

i dont really get their logic, they seem to be boasting about being the form being great despite having played 9 of the bottom 10 in their run. What they say about us is right though, we've got to better against the top half teams

[malcolm waldron]

10 minutes ago, Turkish said:

i dont really get their logic, they seem to be boasting about being the form being great despite having played 9 of the bottom 10 in their run. What they say about us is right though, we've got to better against the top half teams

Think you've mis-read it.  As I see it they're saying their last 16 games feature 9 of the bottom 10.  Dont know how many of our last 16 do for that matter - but it seems to me those 4 away games against teams around us will play a critical part in deciding who gets second.

[Turkish]

7 minutes ago, malcolm waldron said:

Think you've mis-read it.  As I see it they're saying their last 16 games feature 9 of the bottom 10.  Dont know how many of our last 16 do for that matter - but it seems to me those 4 away games against teams around us will play a critical part in deciding who gets second.

ah maybe you're right, looks like i have, i thought they were talking about their previous games 

we've definitely go the harder run in, those 4 games against the other top 5 are not free hits!

Edited February 5 by Turkish

[whelk]

18 minutes ago, malcolm waldron said:

Think you've mis-read it.  As I see it they're saying their last 16 games feature 9 of the bottom 10.  Dont know how many of our last 16 do for that matter - but it seems to me those 4 away games against teams around us will play a critical part in deciding who gets second.

9 v bottom 10 and 7 v above that.  Hardly an exciting statistic especially given Championship mid-table teams are all very similar 

[JRM]

30 minutes ago, malcolm waldron said:

Think you've mis-read it.  As I see it they're saying their last 16 games feature 9 of the bottom 10.  Dont know how many of our last 16 do for that matter - but it seems to me those 4 away games against teams around us will play a critical part in deciding who gets second.

Exactly, they are confident they'll get 2nd based on our inability to win away to top half sides and their easy ish run in. Also writing off Ipswich, bit early for that I think. 

[Lighthouse]

It’s a very selective interpretation of statistics though, you could equally say that Leeds have lost three times as many away games as we have. You could also say that we’re incredibly strong at home AND that we don’t have to play anyone in the top five here again. Ultimately, we just have to not lose the three away six-pointers and the rest should take care of itself.

[Sheaf Saint]

9 hours ago, trousers said:

"It's behind you...!" 

 

Couldn't see that at all from where I was stood (which was near the back in the right corner, just off the edge of this pic).

Meanwhile, the giant video screen at the other end didn't show the game time or the score at any point during the game:

[Give it to Ron]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Exactly why the record breaking run, largely against the weaker teams, needed to be better than 1 point advantage over leeds

Plus the extra game unlike you to miss something positive for us 

[Sheaf Saint]

51 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

It’s a very selective interpretation of statistics though, you could equally say that Leeds have lost three times as many away games as we have. You could also say that we’re incredibly strong at home AND that we don’t have to play anyone in the top five here again. Ultimately, we just have to not lose the three away six-pointers and the rest should take care of itself.

Indeed. 8 of our remaining games are against teams currently in the bottom half, so it's not a massive advantage they have.

They also lost away at Stoke and drew at Rotherham, where we won both games. So it does look a bit like clutching at straws from this guy.

Edited February 5 by Sheaf Saint

[Saint Mikey]

I've done in depth analysis on our rivals fixtures lists and looked back at 5 years worth of Championship data.

Taking into account trend analysis, I've come to the conclusion that the two teams with the most points and/or better goal difference after 46 games will be automatically promoted.

[saintoaks]

1 hour ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Couldn't see that at all from where I was stood (which was near the back in the right corner, just off the edge of this pic).

Meanwhile, the giant video screen at the other end didn't show the game time or the score at any point during the game:

I did like that they were showing the live scores of the other games.  

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, Saint Mikey said:

I've done in depth analysis on our rivals fixtures lists and looked back at 5 years worth of Championship data.

Taking into account trend analysis, I've come to the conclusion that the two teams with the most points and/or better goal difference after 46 games will be automatically promoted.

Amazing!

Has this ever happened before?

[wild-saint]

13 hours ago, JRM said:

Wonder why they fail to mention that they have lost 6 games away from home and factor that in to thier thinking when it comes down to predicting hgow they will perform in their last 8 away games? 

[Tamesaint]

27 minutes ago, wild-saint said:

Wonder why they fail to mention that they have lost 6 games away from home and factor that in to thier thinking when it comes down to predicting hgow they will perform in their last 8 away games? 

They are also the "form team" as they have won their last 5 games. They lost the 2 before then. We aren't the form team even though we have won 7 of our last 8.

The Leeds Facebook page is full of fans who really believe that they are "by far the greatest team, the world has ever seen". 😁😁😁

 

Edited February 5 by Tamesaint

[wild-saint]

43 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

They are also the "form team" as they have won their last 5 games. They lost the 2 before then. We aren't the form team even though we have won 7 of our last 8.

The Leeds Facebook page is full of fans who really believe that they are "by far the greatest team, the world has ever seen". 😁😁😁

 

X is full of similar melt. Saw one guy saying they were the form team from October 1st with 1 point ahead of saints failing to point out he hadnt included the games from Saturday because they played Friday night. They seem to be a right arrogant bunch compared to leicester and Ipswich. 

[david in sweden]

On 04/02/2024 at 12:34, Whitey Grandad said:

Only 30 games a season?

A good question mark (?) just there Whitey. 

The idea of a two-tier Prem. system sounds a bit weird, and whilst the top 6-7 clubs will get extra games in various Euro competitions, plus maybe

a good run in one of the domestic Cups, the "newcomers " like this season's Luton and Burnley " are graded as "second-rate " from the start,  and

will even struggle against ordinary mid-table sides, and may go out of the cups at an early stage - leaving fans with less games during a long season,

and the lower income from those games that are played will further damage the small club's economy.

 

It's clear that a noticeable gap exists between clubs at the bottom of the table, and those above them, but this is a proposal that needs a lot of thought.

The "less-wealthy" clubs are already struggling to find talent good enough to help them survive, let alone playing against the richer " top-end clubs".

[whelk]

2 hours ago, Saint Mikey said:

I've done in depth analysis on our rivals fixtures lists and looked back at 5 years worth of Championship data.

Taking into account trend analysis, I've come to the conclusion that the two teams with the most points and/or better goal difference after 46 games will be automatically promoted.

Did you do follow up analysis that showed we played weaker teams than Leeds?

[Holmes_and_Watson]

On 05/02/2024 at 11:04, Saint Mikey said:

I've done in depth analysis on our rivals fixtures lists and looked back at 5 years worth of Championship data.

Taking into account trend analysis, I've come to the conclusion that the two teams with the most points and/or better goal difference after 46 games will be automatically promoted.

Contentious. Has this been peer reviewed? 🙂