Leicester vs Ipswich

[Saint Keef]

We made up 2 points on each of our biggest rivals this weekend. IMO this is the best result for us in the "long game". I'm not bothered if we're 2nd or 3rd tonight. In 17 matches time is when it will matter and we now have both in our sights....and the closer we get, the more jittery they will both become particularly if Leeds start pressuring them as well.  Irrespective of tonight's result though, isn't it a joy to watch these games without bloody VAR.  

[Harry_SFC]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Red and white tinted glasses or what…

Bristol City, West Brom & Hull all to come within a week next month.

March and the start of April don’t look much better. 

Brum (Different side under Mowbray, will be a good side next year), Leicester, boro, Ipswich and Cov all within a month (give or take) will define our season. 

Maybe you're doing us a disservice? We are the best team in the league at the moment by a fair distance I think.

Bristol City and Hull should be victories and a draw at West Brom is a decent result. 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Harry_SFC said:

Maybe you're doing us a disservice? We are the best team in the league at the moment by a fair distance I think.

Bristol City and Hull should be victories and a draw at West Brom is a decent result. 

I’m not doing us a disservice, just pointing out our fixtures next month are as hard as, if not harder, than those of Leicester. 

[hypochondriac]

It doesn't surprise me that Ipswich are doing so well. My brother in law played with McKenna and said he was a super genius. He said they all had to applaud him as he got all A*s in his exams and he'd be travelling all over the place when he was a player watching games and writing notes about all sorts of obscure lower league fixtures. 

[Cabrone]

Happy with that, I want Leicester pulled into the mix, 2 from 4 is much better than 1 from 3. I hope their nerves are jangling, another 3 poor results and we could be on them. It's all about who holds their nerve now.

[hypochondriac]

14 minutes ago, Saint Keef said:

We made up 2 points on each of our biggest rivals this weekend. IMO this is the best result for us in the "long game". I'm not bothered if we're 2nd or 3rd tonight. In 17 matches time is when it will matter and we now have both in our sights....and the closer we get, the more jittery they will both become particularly if Leeds start pressuring them as well.  Irrespective of tonight's result though, isn't it a joy to watch these games without bloody VAR.  

Indeed. Had Ipswich and Leicester not been playing each other and had drawn we would all be saying what a cracking set of results. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

It doesn't surprise me that Ipswich are doing so well. My brother in law played with McKenna and said he was a super genius. He said they all had to applaud him as he got all A*s in his exams and he'd be travelling all over the place when he was a player watching games and writing notes about all sorts of obscure lower league fixtures. 

He’s done an amazing job. They’re a limited bunch in terms of talent but they’re coached so well. I think he’d be an amazing fit for Brighton. 

[hypochondriac]

1 minute ago, Cabrone said:

Happy with that, I want Leicester pulled into the mix, 2 from 4 is much better than 1 from 3. I hope their nerves are jangling, another 3 poor results and we could be on them. It's all about who holds their nerve now.

Leicester have had it all their own way so far. Pressure can do funny things to teams. If we gain another couple of points on them and then they lose to Leeds away in a few weeks they will be getting very twitchy. 8 points is not a million miles away. Accept its unlikely but you never know. 

[skintsaint]

3 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Leicester have had it all their own way so far. Pressure can do funny things to teams. If we gain another couple of points on them and then they lose to Leeds away in a few weeks they will be getting very twitchy. 8 points is not a million miles away. Accept its unlikely but you never know. 

Most of us remember Newcastle's implosion! It can happen.

[Sheaf Saint]

3 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Leicester have had it all their own way so far. Pressure can do funny things to teams. If we gain another couple of points on them and then they lose to Leeds away in a few weeks they will be getting very twitchy. 8 points is not a million miles away. Accept its unlikely but you never know. 

It was only just over a month ago that we were 12 points behind Ipswich, and many on here had already written off our chances of overtaking them.

Our form over the last 15 games is significantly better than that of Leicester, Ipswich or Leeds. Keep that form up between now and when we play Leicester at theirs on 16 March, and a win there could see us overtake them.

[SaintTex]

the way i see it.

3 points were available for either club ahead of us to be applied against our points total. Only 2 points were issued.

good day.

[FarehamSaintJames]

This is exciting isn’t it 😁

[hypochondriac]

3 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

It was only just over a month ago that we were 12 points behind Ipswich, and many on here had already written off our chances of overtaking them.

Our form over the last 15 games is significantly better than that of Leicester, Ipswich or Leeds. Keep that form up between now and when we play Leicester at theirs on 16 March, and a win there could see us overtake them.

Let's say they draw to Watford, Middlesborough and Leeds and win the rest until they play leeds. We could win our next three against Rotherham, Huddersfield and Bristol city, draw with West brom and beat hull and Millwall. 

It's not completely outlandish to say we could be 4 points behind them after that. Could be three points if they lose to Leeds. Obviously we would have to win almost every game (Bristol city and hull are not easy) but it's not an impossibility. 

[hypochondriac]

18 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Most of us remember Newcastle's implosion! It can happen.

They don't even need to implode. They just need to pick up the odd loss or draw if we keep going at the rate we are. Imagine if we get to within five before we play them knowing that a win could get us within touching distance. 

[woksaintly]

Ipswich play with a lot of energy  which may not be sustainable over a long season and injuries and suspensions will have an impact. Our style is energy conservation which could be the difference come May

[Nordic Saint]

27 minutes ago, FarehamSaintJames said:

This is exciting isn’t it 😁

Not for Leicester fans, it isn't. They are depressed. Apparently, they've been conceding late goals and were expecting another one tonight. I saw this in the post match thread on Foxes Talk tonight: "Genuinely think So’ton walk this league, we are way off them atm.. Ipswich and Leeds inconsistent so we should get 2nd." 

[HKsaint]

7 minutes ago, Nordic Saint said:

Not for Leicester fans, it isn't. They are depressed. Apparently, they've been conceding late goals and were expecting another one tonight. I saw this in the post match thread on Foxes Talk tonight: "Genuinely think So’ton walk this league, we are way off them atm.. Ipswich and Leeds inconsistent so we should get 2nd." 

Does Vestergaard contribute a lot? 

[sfc4prem]

Anyone remember how chuffed we were to get rid of old old tank Jannik?

[SaintBobby]

I wanted Ipswich to win, but happy with a draw. Over 18 games, I think we will overhaul Ipswich. I want to maximise our chances of catching Leicester. Long shot, but not crazy.

[SaintBobby]

We are now about 8/1 to win the league, 5/4 to come second and 4/7 to get promoted by any means.

[trousers]

Imagine if we were in Leicester's position right now... i.e. still with a relatively healthy lead but starting to drop a few points here and there.... Rightly or wrongly, many of us would be cacking our pants at the teams just below us who were starting to slowly reel us in.... 

I think, psychologically at least, we are in a good position right now... We're Seb Coe, still 15 metres behind the tiring pace setter but coming up to the final lap bell still full of energy and desire... Just need the David Coleman commentary to see us home...

Edited January 23 by trousers

[AlexLaw76]

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

[SaintTex]

15 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

[Nolan]

40 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

The record breaking run has taken in 20 league games and been against 19 teams.

Yes it hasnt been against either of the Top two, but the Ipswich points deficit is dealt with on April 1st, if we haven't overtaken them before hand.

[JRM]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

Thats the harsh reality that I'm sure Martin will be very aware of. Don't pat ourselves on the back for too long about the unbeaten run, ultimately might need to do it all again to keep up with the pace. We have bogey team Rotherham next, not beaten them since 1965.

I only saw last 20 mins last night but thought Ipswich looked very good, especially Hutchinson running at Leicester causing them lots of problems. 

[CB Fry]

6 hours ago, trousers said:

Imagine if we were in Leicester's position right now... i.e. still with a relatively healthy lead but starting to drop a few points here and there.... Rightly or wrongly, many of us would be cacking our pants at the teams just below us who were starting to slowly reel us in.... 

 

Except we have barely reeled Leicester in at all. It's taken a record breaking run to gain three whole points (11 behind at end September to 8 points behind now).

If it was us in this situation I'd be on here regularly telling people there is absolutely no need to panic. Leicester's form can go off a fucking cliff if it wants - let's say they go down to 1.5 points a game for the rest of the season - Hull City  standard say. That still gets them to 93 points which is enough for autos every season and enough to win the league most seasons. They are not going to collapse to even that modest level, but it doesn't matter if they do. They don't need to win every single game from here.

Ipswich is different of course (8 point gain) but they have navigated an incredibly tough run over Xmas and January and they are still clear in second. 

I think we cannot expect them to just "fall away" because they haven't.

Edited January 23 by CB Fry

[AlexLaw76]

2 hours ago, Nolan said:

The record breaking run has taken in 20 league games and been against 19 teams.

Yes it hasnt been against either of the Top two, but the Ipswich points deficit is dealt with on April 1st, if we haven't overtaken them before hand.

Between now and April, we have probably the hardest run of games compared to our rivals. 

after the easiest set of fixtures, we are still not top 2!

all well and good patting ourselves on the back for an unbeaten run, but reality is, over the season - including in that run - we have dropped too many points, especially away, to crap teams.

 

Edited January 23 by AlexLaw76

[Sheaf Saint]

9 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Ipswich is different of course but they have navigated an incredibly tough run over Xmas and January and they are still clear in second. 

I wouldn't describe being one point ahead with a worse GD 'clear' by any stretch of the imagination.

[CB Fry]

21 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

I wouldn't describe being one point ahead with a worse GD 'clear' by any stretch of the imagination.

It doesn't take "imagination" to look at the league table and see they are in second, clear of us. Match us for the rest of the season and they're promoted automatically and we ain't.

Edited January 23 by CB Fry

[JRM]

Leeds play twice before we play again so quite likely we'll be 4th albeit with games in hand. Should help focus the minds of the challenge ahead. 

[Roo1976]

8 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

It was only just over a month ago that we were 12 points behind Ipswich, and many on here had already written off our chances of overtaking them.

Our form over the last 15 games is significantly better than that of Leicester, Ipswich or Leeds. Keep that form up between now and when we play Leicester at theirs on 16 March, and a win there could see us overtake them.

if we keep making errors like we did on saturday  for the last 20-25 mins, then were more likely to be that far behind again. Sloppy last 20 IMO should have had more to show for in the 1st half ,still thats gone lessons learnt hopefully and move on. COYS.

[hypochondriac]

3 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

Yes it's unprecedented. This amount of teams doing this well has literally never happened before. 

[Osvaldorama]

Crazy, tough league. 
 

But we can do it. We have the quality through the spine now. Sure, we have given ourselves a lot to do but the belief is back alongside the quality. 
 

Start of the season I thought we had no chance of autos, but Martin has done fantastically well. All we can do is keep playing well and see what happens. I see no reason to be negative anymore whilst we are playing this well. 

[Sheaf Saint]

31 minutes ago, Roo1976 said:

if we keep making errors like we did on saturday  for the last 20-25 mins, then were more likely to be that far behind again. Sloppy last 20 IMO should have had more to show for in the 1st half ,still thats gone lessons learnt hopefully and move on. COYS.

Yeah it was a scrappy end, but I think Russ took a calculated risk, given that we had a 3-1 lead, to make some changes and give game time to players who need it. Stephens was at fault a couple of times with some very poor passes that led to Swansea chances, and Rothwell looked understandably rusty which meant we lost the control of the midfield we had until then.

RM will have learned from this, and I don't imagine he will make those changes in tighter games against stronger opponents. 

[Sheaf Saint]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

It doesn't take "imagination" to look at the league table and see they are in second, clear of us. Match us for the rest of the season and they're promoted automatically and we ain't.

Then your definition of clear differs from mine. If it was the other way round, I would only say we were clear if we had a gap that couldn't be overcome by dropping points in a single game.

Make no mistake, given how much we have closed the gap since mid December, Ipswich are the ones feeling the pressure now, not us. 

[AlexLaw76]

36 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

Crazy, tough league. 
 

But we can do it. We have the quality through the spine now. Sure, we have given ourselves a lot to do but the belief is back alongside the quality. 
 

Start of the season I thought we had no chance of autos, but Martin has done fantastically well. All we can do is keep playing well and see what happens. I see no reason to be negative anymore whilst we are playing this well. 

Tough league? I would say the opposite, the standard is poor, bar maybe the top 4 teams.

[Doctoroncall]

This was Opta’s assessment after 16 games in November:

Enzo Maresca’s side have enjoyed an exceptional start to the Championship season, despite losing their final two games before the November international break versus other top-six contenders Leeds United and Middlesbrough. Nevertheless, they still sit top of the table on goal difference with 39 points from a possible 48. Importantly, the gap between them and third-place Leeds is eight points.

Ipswich Town are also on 39 points after an exceptional start to life back in the Championship following their League One promotion in 2022-23. Kieran McKenna – the second youngest coach in the Championship – is making waves as one of the most impressive managers in the English Football League. Much of Ipswich’s potential success in the remaining months of the season hinge on him staying in Suffolk, you feel. Could he be tempted by a Premier League position, should one arise?

The good news for both Leicester and Ipswich is that winning as many as 39 points from your opening 16 games in a Championship season means you’re likely to get promoted – unless you are Watford. Only two of the 23 teams to have won 35 points or more from their first 16 games in a second-tier season since 1989-90 have failed to win promotion – both were the Hornets in 2000-01 and 2007-08. Of the other 21 sides, 19 won automatic promotion and the other two were promoted via the playoffs.

Leeds were predicted third and Saints fourth. 
 

1st: Leicester City – 96.4 average points
2nd: Ipswich Town – 86.2
3rd: Leeds United – 81.5
4th: Southampton – 77.0
5th: Sunderland – 73.9
6th: West Bromwich Albion – 72.7
7th: Middlesbrough – 72.1
8th: Preston North End – 70.8
9th: Hull City – 70.2
10th: Cardiff City – 64.7
11th: Blackburn Rovers – 64.6
12th: Stoke City – 63.2
13th: Swansea City – 62.6
14th: Bristol City – 61.4
15th: Watford – 60.7
16th: Millwall – 60.3
17th: Norwich City – 60.3
18th: Coventry City – 58.9
19th: Birmingham City – 54.4
20th: Plymouth Argyle – 51.9
21st: Huddersfield Town – 49.5
22nd: Rotherham United – 40.9
23rd: Queens Park Rangers – 38.8
24th: Sheffield Wednesday – 33.2

It shows how things can change (slowly) in a long season and plenty still to play for even if odds are small. 

This is also an interesting article highlighting the competitiveness of the top four:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/01/southampton-russell-martin-club-record/

[Winnersaint]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Between now and April, we have probably the hardest run of games compared to our rivals. 

after the easiest set of fixtures, we are still not top 2!

all well and good patting ourselves on the back for an unbeaten run, but reality is, over the season - including in that run - we have dropped too many points, especially away, to crap teams.

 

I think you're right here and about the toughness of the league. We will not be above Leicester at any point this season. Leeds GD could be akin to an extra point particularly if we go in to the final game 3 points ahead and the idea that Ipswich will fade away is for the birds. So where does that leave us? Play offs definitely, automatic promotion, at best, in the lap of the gods, at worst unlikely given our fixtures. Just a nagging suspicion that if it is the play offs we won't see the inside of Wembley. That would be such a 'Saintsy' thing to do. Then we morph into Stoke, Swansea, Blackburn, Watford et al over the following seasons

[sfc4prem]

.

Edited January 23 by sfc4prem
Unnecessary

[Saint Gifford]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Tough league? I would say the opposite, the standard is poor, bar maybe the top 4 teams.

There is a big gap between autos, play off positions and the rest of the league to be fair.

Im enjoying this season very much, and haven’t given next season much of a thought.
 

Apart from thinking the game in the Championship top teams and the Bottom of the Premier is enormous. 
 

That’s a worry for next season though and not now. But will be a Hugh hole to fill if and when we go back up. 

 

 

[sfc4prem]

J

15 minutes ago, Doctoroncall said:

This was Opta’s assessment after 16 games in November:

Enzo Maresca’s side have enjoyed an exceptional start to the Championship season, despite losing their final two games before the November international break versus other top-six contenders Leeds United and Middlesbrough. Nevertheless, they still sit top of the table on goal difference with 39 points from a possible 48. Importantly, the gap between them and third-place Leeds is eight points.

Ipswich Town are also on 39 points after an exceptional start to life back in the Championship following their League One promotion in 2022-23. Kieran McKenna – the second youngest coach in the Championship – is making waves as one of the most impressive managers in the English Football League. Much of Ipswich’s potential success in the remaining months of the season hinge on him staying in Suffolk, you feel. Could he be tempted by a Premier League position, should one arise?

The good news for both Leicester and Ipswich is that winning as many as 39 points from your opening 16 games in a Championship season means you’re likely to get promoted – unless you are Watford. Only two of the 23 teams to have won 35 points or more from their first 16 games in a second-tier season since 1989-90 have failed to win promotion – both were the Hornets in 2000-01 and 2007-08. Of the other 21 sides, 19 won automatic promotion and the other two were promoted via the playoffs.

Leeds were predicted third and Saints fourth. 
 

1st: Leicester City – 96.4 average points
2nd: Ipswich Town – 86.2
3rd: Leeds United – 81.5
4th: Southampton – 77.0
5th: Sunderland – 73.9
6th: West Bromwich Albion – 72.7
7th: Middlesbrough – 72.1
8th: Preston North End – 70.8
9th: Hull City – 70.2
10th: Cardiff City – 64.7
11th: Blackburn Rovers – 64.6
12th: Stoke City – 63.2
13th: Swansea City – 62.6
14th: Bristol City – 61.4
15th: Watford – 60.7
16th: Millwall – 60.3
17th: Norwich City – 60.3
18th: Coventry City – 58.9
19th: Birmingham City – 54.4
20th: Plymouth Argyle – 51.9
21st: Huddersfield Town – 49.5
22nd: Rotherham United – 40.9
23rd: Queens Park Rangers – 38.8
24th: Sheffield Wednesday – 33.2

It shows how things can change (slowly) in a long season and plenty still to play for even if odds are small. 

This is also an interesting article highlighting the competitiveness of the top four:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/01/southampton-russell-martin-club-record/

It also says a lot about the unpredictability of football and particular short term form. Look at Sunderland and PNE now in comparison to 16 games in (when the predictions in the article were made).

[sfc4prem]

11 minutes ago, Winnersaint said:

I think you're right here and about the toughness of the league. We will not be above Leicester at any point this season. Leeds GD could be akin to an extra point particularly if we go in to the final game 3 points ahead and the idea that Ipswich will fade away is for the birds. So where does that leave us? Play offs definitely, automatic promotion, at best, in the lap of the gods, at worst unlikely given our fixtures. Just a nagging suspicion that if it is the play offs we won't see the inside of Wembley. That would be such a 'Saintsy' thing to do. Then we morph into Stoke, Swansea, Blackburn, Watford et al over the following seasons

Such a depressing outlook.

[saintant]

6 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

So, after a record breaking run, with the easiest set of Xmas and new year fixtures in the entire league, we are still not top 2.

 

Patience!

[saintant]

3 hours ago, JRM said:

Thats the harsh reality that I'm sure Martin will be very aware of. Don't pat ourselves on the back for too long about the unbeaten run, ultimately might need to do it all again to keep up with the pace. We have bogey team Rotherham next, not beaten them since 1965.

I only saw last 20 mins last night but thought Ipswich looked very good, especially Hutchinson running at Leicester causing them lots of problems. 

You happened to catch their best spell. Apart from that they were generally fairly poor and their football was not a patch on ours.

[AlexLaw76]

27 minutes ago, saintant said:

You happened to catch their best spell. Apart from that they were generally fairly poor and their football was not a patch on ours.

First half or second half at Swansea?

[Nordic Saint]

10 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

We are now about 8/1 to win the league, 5/4 to come second and 4/7 to get promoted by any means.

i.e. We are 2nd favourites behind Leicester. 

Championship Promotion Betting Odds | Football | Oddschecker

[S-Clarke]

3 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Between now and April, we have probably the hardest run of games compared to our rivals. 

after the easiest set of fixtures, we are still not top 2!

all well and good patting ourselves on the back for an unbeaten run, but reality is, over the season - including in that run - we have dropped too many points, especially away, to crap teams.

 

Not sure why you're putting such a downer on what we're doing, talking like we're failing and belittling anyone who may be a tiny bit positive. What we're doing this season is really good - in any other season with what we're doing we're top 2 by a distance, probably top - no dramas. This is a freak season, we have done better than anyone could have imagined back in September but for us not to be sat Top 2 isn't a slight on us at all - we've fought as hard as we could have to get back into the picture. If you want to be picky and look at the 1-1's against Huddersfield and Rotherham then go for it, but every team is going to hit those sorts of results over a season.

We just have to keep plugging a long with the same relentlessness. I'm sure there will be a dip, but we need to make sure it's the smallest dip. We're in a good place, I don't care that we're not Top 2 today, tomorrow or next week - doesn't matter. What matters is the momentum in this league and we have shed loads of it, and that momentum will ultimately land us where we want to.

[woksaintly]

Do you get the impression that Saints are playing with "pressure". No they all seem to be having a ball (pardon the pun) Ipswich look as though their intensity is all pressure related. It is not just a physical jpourney but a mental one as well. That is what separates us at the moment, irrespective of who we play. We are going up

 

[AlexLaw76]

6 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Not sure why you're putting such a downer on what we're doing, talking like we're failing and belittling anyone who may be a tiny bit positive. What we're doing this season is really good - in any other season with what we're doing we're top 2 by a distance, probably top - no dramas. This is a freak season, we have done better than anyone could have imagined back in September but for us not to be sat Top 2 isn't a slight on us at all - we've fought as hard as we could have to get back into the picture. If you want to be picky and look at the 1-1's against Huddersfield and Rotherham then go for it, but every team is going to hit those sorts of results over a season.

We just have to keep plugging a long with the same relentlessness. I'm sure there will be a dip, but we need to make sure it's the smallest dip. We're in a good place, I don't care that we're not Top 2 today, tomorrow or next week - doesn't matter. What matters is the momentum in this league and we have shed loads of it, and that momentum will ultimately land us where we want to.

I am echoing the manager. He said we have dropped too many points in this run and we need to be better away from home. He said that the record is nice but no use if we don’t get promoted this season. 
 

he said that. Is he also too picky or belittling?

[Tamesaint]

26 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

I am echoing the manager. He said we have dropped too many points in this run and we need to be better away from home. He said that the record is nice but no use if we don’t get promoted this season. 
 

he said that. Is he also too picky or belittling?

You are echoing the manager??  When did Martin say that we have had easy opponents? I must have missed that one. 

You are being too pessimistic. Martin is keeping the pressure on his players. That is his job. Managers do that sort of thing. Similarly if things are going badly they come up with bullish comments. Did you echo Selles last season in the same way as you are echoing Martin when Selles said that we would not be relegated?