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1 minute ago, SambaMaverick said:

Why did we spunk most of our budget on kids who haven't made a noticeable improvement then? Seems to be a bit backwards. SR have got a lot to learn.

You always have to give them the while window before judging fully. But moat summer windows alway tend to go like this, this massive deals for the top players happen early or right at the end; the young market happens early and then all tbe players in demand from a wider range of club will take longer to happen because players have more options and clubs can create more negotiation. 

I dont like that the window closes after the season start (it's worse for lesser clubs like us)but it is what it is. 

Regardless of who we still get in, hopefully an established CB, Striker and a winger type, Ralph has to go. 

But until September 1st we can't really judge SR fairly, even if we have lost every game to that point.

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1 minute ago, Gingeletiss said:

FFS…..Give them a chance!

I'd like to think that SR have a plan in place to address the front positions which takes Adams going into account as well. In fact, I'm sure they have. Just as they have bought in well-lauded signings so far this window. Judge them at the end of the window, when the bed sheets might have had time to dry out. 

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6 minutes ago, Greenridge said:

I'd like to think that SR have a plan in place to address the front positions which takes Adams going into account as well. In fact, I'm sure they have. Just as they have bought in well-lauded signings so far this window. Judge them at the end of the window, when the bed sheets might have had time to dry out. 

Well lauded signings? Certainly not well lauded from me.  They are a bunch of youngsters  with virtually  zero experience of olayijg any top flight football (in any country). Clearly a fee not upto it yet as they weren't playing at the weekend. Unfortunately we needed played ti cone in and make an immediate impact. 

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26 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Trying to understand this...

After spending £50m, its pretty likely we need to recoup some funds in order to spend more.

We clearly aren't going to be getting big money offers for the likes of Bednarek, Lyanco, Stephens, Redmond, Djenepo, A.Armstrong, Walcott etc so perhaps the thinking is that by getting say £20m from Adams perhaps we have a couple of strikers we can bring in who the club think are better? Perhaps an approx £25m signing and a loan for example?

We clearly can't have a net spend of upwards of £70m and obviously don't want to sell JWP or KWP. There is basically nobody else apart from Adams.

This is my thinking, we’ve spent a lot so far and are talking of spending more. So, are we spending all the money that was loaned in under Gao, are SR financing us, or are we going to look to balance the books with sales?

One would hope that money can be generated by offloading Elyounoussi, Bednarek, Redmond etc. but that’s going to very hard to get meaningful cash for them. The other options are selling the established players, Adams unfortunately seems like a possible contender there. The nuclear options are JWP and KWP, but obviously we all very much hope that they are not even in consideration. I’ll remain concerned until the window closes, there’s a long time to go yet.

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1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Losing both Borja (nothing we can do there) and Adams (entirely within our gift), without replacement whilst the season is underway….

SR is just a Gao ownership with a fancier title

And you’d know all about different titles

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18 minutes ago, MarkSFC said:

You always have to give them the while window before judging fully. But moat summer windows alway tend to go like this, this massive deals for the top players happen early or right at the end; the young market happens early and then all tbe players in demand from a wider range of club will take longer to happen because players have more options and clubs can create more negotiation. 

I dont like that the window closes after the season start (it's worse for lesser clubs like us)but it is what it is. 

Regardless of who we still get in, hopefully an established CB, Striker and a winger type, Ralph has to go. 

But until September 1st we can't really judge SR fairly, even if we have lost every game to that point.

Good post. Frustrated like everyone else is at seeing another League Two level performance on Saturday and I can’t imagine SR were impressed either. As pathetic as the defending was, it doesn’t help that the ball kept on coming back and didn’t stick at all in the forward areas. However, let’s see what the rest of the window brings.

Ralph has to go though, now. Four or more goal defeats to Villa, Chelsea, Leicester, City, Spurs and lost to relegated Watford at home and Burnley in about 13 games. I probably missed another one in there somewhere although Brentford away should have been far more than 3 if they’d wanted it. We could sign Messi, Henderson, and Jorginho on deadline day and still look as disorganised and disenfranchised with this manager for the rest of the season. 

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I don’t think he’s a great goal scorer but there’s a lot more to his game, he’s the only striker who can hold the ball up and he is capable of some great finished.

In a nutshell he’s the best striker we have, by a long way, so they better have something petty special up their sleeves cos if he goes we are still two strikers lite.

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Would be absolutely bonkers to sell Che, unless it's for stupid money, i.e. £30m odd.

I will judge at the end of the window, but losing our two best strikers from last season will leave us in all sorts of problems. Even if we bring in a player much better than Broja and Adams, which is incredibly unlikely, it will take some time for them to settle, and we'll be stuck watching A Armstrong jog about mishitting everything he touches. 

My only thought is that if we can be neutral bringing Broja back and selling Adams, would you do the deal? Possibly, but we still would need 1 more striker in.

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To be honest I don’t think Adams or Armstrong are the answer to our lack of goals, however as it’s stands Adams is our best striker so it seems crazy selling without a replacement. As has been said, the only explanation is that he’s put in a transfer request or we need to sell to buy. Time is running out and frankly I can’t see us getting the required 2-3 strikers into the club before the window closes which means a very miserable season ahead and likely relegation. All of a sudden the early optimism has bled away and the club looks to be in a tailspin.

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Playing devil's advocate, perhaps the Adams money goes towards an absolute howitzer of a striker in the pipeline who costs a bit more than our usual range, and the plan is to play one up.

For Adams' qualities as a hard worker, he's not good enough to play as a lone striker. Doesn't score enough, no pace to get in behind, can't head.

Armstrong isn't good enough either, for that matter. 

But maybe this fictional goalscoring behemoth I'm imagining bursting forth through the hallowed Staplewood gates, two parts shock to three parts awe, will be the talismanic line leader we've been crying out for. And Chesus is the sacrifice that must be made for our sins.

It's a big maybe, granted.

 

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5 minutes ago, qwertyell said:

Playing devil's advocate, perhaps the Adams money goes towards an absolute howitzer of a striker in the pipeline who costs a bit more than our usual range, and the plan is to play one up.

For Adams' qualities as a hard worker, he's not good enough to play as a lone striker. Doesn't score enough, no pace to get in behind, can't head.

Armstrong isn't good enough either, for that matter. 

But maybe this fictional goalscoring behemoth I'm imagining bursting forth through the hallowed Staplewood gates, two parts shock to three parts awe, will be the talismanic line leader we've been crying out for. And Chesus is the sacrifice that must be made for our sins.

It's a big maybe, granted.

 

And we’d still be one injury away from the weekend set-up. That’s the big risk here. It’s clear one is coming in, question is probably are two?

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Let's be polite at this point and assume this is just half of the story.

Sell Adams, create the funds to trigger the release of some great striker we've already spoken with, get another solid one in on loan - fantastic business, all wrapped up in 48 hours and ready to rock and roll against Leeds....

Either way, the next seven days could decide Ralph's future - and if it's selling Adams with no replacement then losing at the weekend, he won't need sacking, he'll need sectioning.

 

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I think we all agree that Che is our best striker, but that really isn't saying much. I like him but at the same time I'm sure with some decent scouting we could do better. Problem is if we sell, then we need two strikers of at least equal quality to Che/Broja and I struggle to see us getting that.

Selling Che in itself isn't a major issue for me, it's how we replace him. Rather than throwing toys out the pram I'll wait until the end of the window to judge in the hope that SR know what they're doing and have a plan up their sleeves.

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2 minutes ago, Saint Troy said:

And we’d still be one injury away from the weekend set-up. That’s the big risk here. It’s clear one is coming in, question is probably are two?

We're always one injury away from being much weaker. Most sides are. It's not realistic to expect us to have a squad of 22 starters.

Better to have 11 absolute belters and mediocre back up than a squad that is more quantity than quality.

A "first name on the team sheet" striker, with Armstrong, Mara, perhaps a late loan, as understudy could work.

What did we used to have in reserve when Lambert, Lallana and Rodriguez were going gangbusters? Fuck all.

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6 minutes ago, rallyboy said:

Let's be polite at this point and assume this is just half of the story.

Sell Adams, create the funds to trigger the release of some great striker we've already spoken with, get another solid one in on loan - fantastic business, all wrapped up in 48 hours and ready to rock and roll against Leeds....

Either way, the next seven days could decide Ralph's future - and if it's selling Adams with no replacement then losing at the weekend, he won't need sacking, he'll need sectioning.

 

this is my prediction too, one decent one (the Stutgart guy or Dembele), one YHGTI player like Delap on loan. 

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There’s clearly something up for him not to even get on the pitch in a game where our only striker appeared to be AA, who couldn’t get a start for love nor money in the second half of last season. Clearly Mara is some way off and probably being seen as a Mayuka-style punt for the future.

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22 minutes ago, qwertyell said:

We're always one injury away from being much weaker. Most sides are. It's not realistic to expect us to have a squad of 22 starters.

Better to have 11 absolute belters and mediocre back up than a squad that is more quantity than quality.

A "first name on the team sheet" striker, with Armstrong, Mara, perhaps a late loan, as understudy could work.

What did we used to have in reserve when Lambert, Lallana and Rodriguez were going gangbusters? Fuck all.

But in fairness, it was our first or second season in the premier league, and our second season we brought in Osvaldo. 

We've had 10 years to build a proper premier league squad, and we find ourselves with one of the worst strikers in recent history, being first choice, in a role that he cannot play. It's a bit ridiciulous that we seem to have a weaker squad now than we did in our first season back in the premier league.

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2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

reading this, are Sports Republic all that?

My jury has always been out, the cynical side of me suspects they are in the money ball racquet. I think they have seduced a lot of fans with words they want to hear and splashing out £50 or £60 million, but if their plan was to sell of some of the big guns to offset the spend, and then the next phase of the plan is to unearth some gems and flog them off when they become profitable, then they will definitely not have been what we needed.

 

My jury is still out though, the window is open and they may have a cunning plan? ??? 

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4 minutes ago, Toussaint said:

My jury has always been out, the cynical side of me suspects they are in the money ball racquet. I think they have seduced a lot of fans with words they want to hear and splashing out £50 or £60 million, but if their plan was to sell of some of the big guns to offset the spend, and then the next phase of the plan is to unearth some gems and flog them off when they become profitable, then they will definitely not have been what we needed.

Why do you view moneyball as a bad thing? What alternative strategy do you suggest?

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32 minutes ago, qwertyell said:

We're always one injury away from being much weaker. Most sides are. It's not realistic to expect us to have a squad of 22 starters.

Better to have 11 absolute belters and mediocre back up than a squad that is more quantity than quality.

A "first name on the team sheet" striker, with Armstrong, Mara, perhaps a late loan, as understudy could work.

What did we used to have in reserve when Lambert, Lallana and Rodriguez were going gangbusters? Fuck all.

Understand, and youre right that any starter injury weakens nearly any team. But in the same breath your hoping for a loan striker in there too.... and im assuming you dont want the loan striker to be worse than armstrong! If we get a loan that can cover the che role and a starter thats an improvement then really we have to be happy. Mara is the tricky one as based on 45 mins of friendly its assumed he wont be the answer but he may well be and no loan is needed. All about the end of the window i suppose and we know who we have and a few more games under our belt. Finger crossed! 

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2 minutes ago, ally_uk said:

Im sure the board know that they are doing. 

I'd go further and sell Armsrong aswell. 

Him and Adams at this level are not what we need to progress..... 

Time to properly upgrade the attack. 

Sesko in! 🤣🤣🤣

 

Yep. I just don't see what he brings to the team.

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6 minutes ago, Saint Garrett said:

But in fairness, it was our first or second season in the premier league, and our second season we brought in Osvaldo. 

We've had 10 years to build a proper premier league squad, and we find ourselves with one of the worst strikers in recent history, being first choice, in a role that he cannot play. It's a bit ridiciulous that we seem to have a weaker squad now than we did in our first season back in the premier league.

This really sums up the frustration for a lot of supporters and no doubt the players as well. No excuses when the club has been in the PL for a decade. AA is a chase and shoot striker from flick ons and through balls on the last shoulder, he will never be a hold up and bring others into play striker. Only an imbecile who doesn’t know anything about the game would play him as a lone striker. The same imbecile who thought a RWB not good enough for the squad at Championship side fighting relegation could play CB at one of Europe’s top sides and a winger who has been dreadful with no defensive qualities also in the last year of his contract at LWB. Even George Burley would have thought twice.

The Mara signing looks more and more bizarre within this context. SR have to get the Adams sale and twin striker/main striker and 10 purchases spot on and both players need to have an immediate impact. Not a situation for ‘one for the future/cheap gamble. Although potential targets can’t fancy Saints much after Saturday’s stuffing and RH’s management style doesn’t seem to be getting rave reviews on the player/agent grapevine from what we can gather. 

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3 minutes ago, LiberalCommunist said:

We are either skint or stupid. No need to encourage this Adams speculation. 

For all the noise and disruption, you can bet its a piss ant fee to boot. Weird. 

Quote

As per The Athletic, Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl has told Adams he is free to leave this summer.

They are willing to allow him to leave St Mary’s after three seasons, with the player no longer considered first choice.

Per reports, they are willing to let him leave for a fee of just £15m too. His deal has two years left to run and his availability has alerted Nottingham Forest.

Something must have happened between Che and Ralph? He may not be the best striker in the prem, but he's the best we have and not easily replaced for £15m.

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2 minutes ago, Mattster said:

Something must have happened between Che and Ralph? He may not be the best striker in the prem, but he's the best we have and not easily replaced for £15m.

That's a real joke if true. He's our best striker and 15 million nowadays is a laughably small amount. I'm officially worried about this season now. 

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4 minutes ago, Mattster said:

Something must have happened between Che and Ralph? He may not be the best striker in the prem, but he's the best we have and not easily replaced for £15m.

I've always found it bizarre.  Since the wonder goal against Man City, Che has been consistantly good but Ralph often drops him.  I'm sure there was a point last season that Che scored 3 games in a row and then Ralph benched him.  Must be something Ralph doesn't like.

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49 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

Why do you view moneyball as a bad thing? What alternative strategy do you suggest?

I wouldn't such have a problem with it if we had a solid base, we don't, our base is extremely weak.  Therefore I believe "moneyball" really high risk strategy for us. The strategy I would suggest, assuming we want to stay in the prem, is investment in the first team. We have all generally agreed that over the last two seasons we were two or 3 players short of being a competitive side, since then we have lost Ings / Broja and temporarily lost Tino, that in my view makes us about 5 short.    

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1 hour ago, Toussaint said:

My jury has always been out, the cynical side of me suspects they are in the money ball racquet. I think they have seduced a lot of fans with words they want to hear and splashing out £50 or £60 million, but if their plan was to sell of some of the big guns to offset the spend, and then the next phase of the plan is to unearth some gems and flog them off when they become profitable, then they will definitely not have been what we needed.

 

My jury is still out though, the window is open and they may have a cunning plan? ??? 

Well they need to be very careful because relegation in their first season as owners will blow a huge hole in both their investment and plans to build up a portfolio of football clubs.

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1 minute ago, saintant said:

Well they need to be very careful because relegation in their first season as owners will blow a huge hole in both their investment and plans to build up a portfolio of football clubs.

Agreed, it's a massive risk

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36 minutes ago, Mattster said:

Something must have happened between Che and Ralph? He may not be the best striker in the prem, but he's the best we have and not easily replaced for £15m.

Combine our current run, the fact it is Adams, and the paltry fee makes that one of the most depressing reports I've seen in ages as a Saints fan. Unless there is a definite sh!t hot striker coming in that decision is just ridiculous. 

Would that be an SR decision or a RH decision?  If it's the latter then whatever little respect I did have left for the jobs he's doing has completely gone.

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1 minute ago, Saint_clark said:

Nothing about this makes sense. 

£15M seems cheap for what is and established, 'average' prem striker. Average in the sense of his goals return.....not many get more than 10 in a season.

Maybe a fallout with Ralph? Maybe he's been told he won't get a new contract (or doesn't want one perhaps)? Maybe SR have their sights set on replacement(s) who are much better?

Looking forward to the end of window merry-go-round.

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1 minute ago, Pat from Poole said:

Madness to let Adams go, particularly to a likely relegation rival; he’s a whole-hearted player who has got steadily better each season.

Not prolific, but then we are hardly prolific in creating great chances.

Madness if we don't replace him or if we only replace him with a kid who has never played mens football. If we replace him with a couple of better players then we probably won't miss him.

If we get it wrong then it does have a Fitz Hall vibe about it for sure.

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9 minutes ago, Suhari said:

£15M seems cheap for what is and established, 'average' prem striker. Average in the sense of his goals return.....not many get more than 10 in a season.

Maybe a fallout with Ralph? Maybe he's been told he won't get a new contract (or doesn't want one perhaps)? Maybe SR have their sights set on replacement(s) who are much better?

Looking forward to the end of window merry-go-round.

This is very important. If he wont sign a deal, wants too much money or we don't want to give him that extension, then now is the time to sell to maximise the return. That could be the bigger picture and for our financial model to work, tough decisions like this must be made that us fans don't like too much, especially when it involves strikers.

If we want to spend more on talent, we need to ensure we maximise the income and avoid the Hoj type scenarios where players leave for relative buttons.

It's a very tough balancing act.

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6 minutes ago, Chez said:

This is very important. If he wont sign a deal, wants too much money or we don't want to give him that extension, then now is the time to sell to maximise the return. That could be the bigger picture and for our financial model to work, tough decisions like this must be made that us fans don't like too much, especially when it involves strikers.

If we want to spend more on talent, we need to ensure we maximise the income and avoid the Hoj type scenarios where players leave for relative buttons.

It's a very tough balancing act.

May be that he is on quite a modest contract as well ? Which begs the question , if that is the case, why we don’t offer him a better one. He has proved himself at  lower half PL level, and will always be saleable .

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3 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

Why do you view moneyball as a bad thing? What alternative strategy do you suggest?

Have we actually initiated a moneyball strategy? I’m yet to see it if we have, yet I see a lot of references to it on this board.

Moneyball is not about buying players cheap and selling them for a profit. That’s a strategy we are certainly going for, buying some young players and providing a route to the first team with an indication that we’ll happily sell players to bigger sides if they do well for us. Good strategy, but not in itself moneyball.

Moneyball in baseball relied on detailed sabermetrics to identify high value, low cost players via a different scouting and assessment criteria to that commonly used. Basically picking up players that were undervalued and less popular to other sides, backed up by a massive amount of analysis and statistical evaluation. Are we doing that? Don’t know but it’s not instantly apparent to me that we are.

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21 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Madness if we don't replace him or if we only replace him with a kid who has never played mens football. If we replace him with a couple of better players then we probably won't miss him.

If we get it wrong then it does have a Fitz Hall vibe about it for sure.

I've got flashbacks of 2008 - Rupert Lowe and getting rid of the 'log jam' of strikers that kept us up previously, leaving us reliant on David McGoldrick up front.

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of all the players to shift, Adams would be near the bottom of the pile.  Probably sat just above JwP and KwP (who has also been linked away)

no doubt members of the club are reading this.....Why are you sticking with Hassenhuttle and why the feck is selling Adams even a consideration..?

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1 hour ago, The Kraken said:

Have we actually initiated a moneyball strategy? I’m yet to see it if we have, yet I see a lot of references to it on this board.

Moneyball is not about buying players cheap and selling them for a profit. That’s a strategy we are certainly going for, buying some young players and providing a route to the first team with an indication that we’ll happily sell players to bigger sides if they do well for us. Good strategy, but not in itself moneyball.

Moneyball in baseball relied on detailed sabermetrics to identify high value, low cost players via a different scouting and assessment criteria to that commonly used. Basically picking up players that were undervalued and less popular to other sides, backed up by a massive amount of analysis and statistical evaluation. Are we doing that? Don’t know but it’s not instantly apparent to me that we are.

Exactly.  Purely buying young players on the basis we'll recoup more down the line isn't moneyball per se.  

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14 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

of all the players to shift, Adams would be near the bottom of the pile.  Probably sat just above JwP and KwP (who has also been linked away)

no doubt members of the club are reading this.....Why are you sticking with Hassenhuttle and why the feck is selling Adams even a consideration..?

I think you have comprehensively shown that we have mostly a squad devoid of talent if you think Adams is one of our top players.

 

PS I do not disagree in any way what you are saying but FFS Adams is not   consistently good

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1 hour ago, revolution saint said:

Exactly.  Purely buying young players on the basis we'll recoup more down the line isn't moneyball per se.  

As far as I am aware Moneyball, as demonstrated in the film from the same name, is about the ability to use some form of intense analysis to identify players who are perceived to show signs that they can quite significantly improve the level they are performing at. Not the obvious star players but fringe ones who wouldn't ordinarily be on the radar of those looking to strengthen a team. I don't think age comes into it. From watching the film, if I remember correctly, the baseball players signed were unexpected, slightly out of left field and not ones that many coaches would consider.  It is based on a true story and it did work although initially the team went on a run of losses. Not sure how close to the real story the film is or whether it would work for us or any other football club - probably not because the coach would have been fired after the initial run of defeats. Worth a watch though. 

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4 hours ago, teamsaint said:

May be that he is on quite a modest contract as well ? Which begs the question , if that is the case, why we don’t offer him a better one. He has proved himself at  lower half PL level, and will always be saleable .

I don't know how much he's on, but would you give him a four year £100k a week deal today, or sell, to maximise the return to give us more to spend on a replacement? This is the type of d vision the club may be facing.

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22 minutes ago, saintant said:

As far as I am aware Moneyball, as demonstrated in the film from the same name, is about the ability to use some form of intense analysis to identify players who are perceived to show signs that they can quite significantly improve the level they are performing at. Not the obvious star players but fringe ones who wouldn't ordinarily be on the radar of those looking to strengthen a team. I don't think age comes into it. From watching the film, if I remember correctly, the baseball players signed were unexpected, slightly out of left field and not ones that many coaches would consider.  It is based on a true story and it did work although initially the team went on a run of losses. Not sure how close to the real story the film is or whether it would work for us or any other football club - probably not because the coach would have been fired after the initial run of defeats. Worth a watch though. 

Yeah, that's pretty much it and ,yes,  I watched the film as well.

If we started buying ancient over the hill players, or journeymen, or players that might be good at one particular thing and nowt else for next to nothing and then had formations and styles of play that emphasised those strengths and tried as far as possible to negate the weaknesses then that's moneyball.  You use the statistical analysis to identify those players that are being overlooked and find the hidden value.  You can argue that buying younger players whilst they're cheap and then flogging them later once they've had developed is a form of moneyball I guess but it's not quite the same thing.  If we went full on moneyball then I'd expect the forum to explode every time we signed a player.

To be honest, I don't think it's something that really translates to football that well.  Baseball roles are far more easily defined and the actions are limited.  Football has too many variables and positions. 

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4 hours ago, The Kraken said:

Have we actually initiated a moneyball strategy? I’m yet to see it if we have, yet I see a lot of references to it on this board.

Moneyball is not about buying players cheap and selling them for a profit. That’s a strategy we are certainly going for, buying some young players and providing a route to the first team with an indication that we’ll happily sell players to bigger sides if they do well for us. Good strategy, but not in itself moneyball.

Moneyball in baseball relied on detailed sabermetrics to identify high value, low cost players via a different scouting and assessment criteria to that commonly used. Basically picking up players that were undervalued and less popular to other sides, backed up by a massive amount of analysis and statistical evaluation. Are we doing that? Don’t know but it’s not instantly apparent to me that we are.

Good post. It's not moneyball, which wasn't about acquiring young players with potential.

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Che Adams

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