A comparison to previous Championship seasons after 22 games

[Barsiem]

It's been mooted a few times on here that Leicester & Ipswich are having exceptional seasons, whereas some are still very critical of our points tally this season.  So whilst watching the game (and laughing at Alcaraz...) I thought I'd compare where we would be in the table with the same performance after 22 games over the previous 10 seasons (and a couple of others).

23/24 - 4th- ten behind Leicester & Ipswich (Leicester have game in hand so could be thirteen!), level with Leeds (+15GD), six ahead of Hull (possibly four ahead of WBA if they win this weekend)

22/23 - 2nd - two points behind Burnley (44pts), one in front of Sheff Utd (41pts)

21/22 - 3rd - three points behind Fulham (45pts), one behind Bournemouth (43pts), two ahead of WBA

20/21 - 2nd - two points behind Norwich (44pts), one in front of Brentford (41pts)

19/20 - 3rd - seven points behind WBA (49pts), five behind Leeds (47pts), 7 ahead of PNE

18/19 - 3rd - three points behind Leeds (45pts), two behind Norwich (44pts), three ahead of WBA

17/18 - 4th - nine behind Wolves (51pts), 5 behind Cardiff ((47pts), one behind Bristol City (43pts), one ahead of Derby

16/17 - 3rd - seven behind Newcastle (49pts), six behind Brighton (48 pts), two ahead of Reading

15/16 - 4th - four points behind Middlesbrough (46pts), two behind Derby (44pts), one behind BHA (43pts), one ahead of Hull

14/15 - 4th - three behind Leicester (45pts), one behind Burnley (43pts), level with QPR (QPR GD +11), one ahead of Derby

13/14 - 3rd - two behind Cardiff (44pts), level with Crystal Palace (CP +15GD), one ahead of Middlesbrough

And for good measure when we last were promoted

11/12 - 3rd - two behind ourselves (44pts), one behind WHA (43pts), one ahead of Middlesbrough

Ad finally Reading's record breaking season

05/06 - 3rd - eleven behind Reading (53pts), seven behind Sheff Utd (49pts), three ahead of Leeds

So in conclusion everyone is right!!  Not one team has reached the points tally of Leicester or Ipswich in the last ten years, but at the same time only twice would our points tally and goal  difference have been enough to be in the automatic promotions, which is not an unreasonable expectation for our squad.  We are unfortunate to be so far adrift of automatic promotion though, as in only three of the twelve seasons would we have been more than a win away from being in the top two, and we would have been at least 3 points closer to top two than we currently are.

The above shows how teams spur each other on to get results.  If Leicester wasn't doing so well I'm sure Ipswich wouldn't have their points tally (and vice versa) - same happens with WBA/Leeds, Wolves/Cardiff & Reading/Sheff Utd - it's never one team just running away with it.

[ErwinK1961]

3 hours ago, Barsiem said:

It's been mooted a few times on here that Leicester & Ipswich are having exceptional seasons, whereas some are still very critical of our points tally this season.  So whilst watching the game (and laughing at Alcaraz...) I thought I'd compare where we would be in the table with the same performance after 22 games over the previous 10 seasons (and a couple of others).

23/24 - 4th- ten behind Leicester & Ipswich (Leicester have game in hand so could be thirteen!), level with Leeds (+15GD), six ahead of Hull (possibly four ahead of WBA if they win this weekend)

22/23 - 2nd - two points behind Burnley (44pts), one in front of Sheff Utd (41pts)

21/22 - 3rd - three points behind Fulham (45pts), one behind Bournemouth (43pts), two ahead of WBA

20/21 - 2nd - two points behind Norwich (44pts), one in front of Brentford (41pts)

19/20 - 3rd - seven points behind WBA (49pts), five behind Leeds (47pts), 7 ahead of PNE

18/19 - 3rd - three points behind Leeds (45pts), two behind Norwich (44pts), three ahead of WBA

17/18 - 4th - nine behind Wolves (51pts), 5 behind Cardiff ((47pts), one behind Bristol City (43pts), one ahead of Derby

16/17 - 3rd - seven behind Newcastle (49pts), six behind Brighton (48 pts), two ahead of Reading

15/16 - 4th - four points behind Middlesbrough (46pts), two behind Derby (44pts), one behind BHA (43pts), one ahead of Hull

14/15 - 4th - three behind Leicester (45pts), one behind Burnley (43pts), level with QPR (QPR GD +11), one ahead of Derby

13/14 - 3rd - two behind Cardiff (44pts), level with Crystal Palace (CP +15GD), one ahead of Middlesbrough

And for good measure when we last were promoted

11/12 - 3rd - two behind ourselves (44pts), one behind WHA (43pts), one ahead of Middlesbrough

Ad finally Reading's record breaking season

05/06 - 3rd - eleven behind Reading (53pts), seven behind Sheff Utd (49pts), three ahead of Leeds

So in conclusion everyone is right!!  Not one team has reached the points tally of Leicester or Ipswich in the last ten years, but at the same time only twice would our points tally and goal  difference have been enough to be in the automatic promotions, which is not an unreasonable expectation for our squad.  We are unfortunate to be so far adrift of automatic promotion though, as in only three of the twelve seasons would we have been more than a win away from being in the top two, and we would have been at least 3 points closer to top two than we currently are.

The above shows how teams spur each other on to get results.  If Leicester wasn't doing so well I'm sure Ipswich wouldn't have their points tally (and vice versa) - same happens with WBA/Leeds, Wolves/Cardiff & Reading/Sheff Utd - it's never one team just running away with it.

Nice analysis, thanks for putting that together 👍

[S-Clarke]

Good post, thanks for putting it together. It really is a bit of a freakish season.

We're kind of performing exactly as you'd expect an auto promotion aiming team to perform, like you say we're pretty much on target of our actual promotion season - yet somehow still 10 points off.

Let's keep going though, see where it takes us. I reckon we'll end up with quite a sizable gap between 4th and the rest though, the order of that 4 still slightly up for debate. We'll know for sure after the Christmas games if it's 'game on' or not for the 2nd half of the season.

[gio1saints]

Thanks for posting the research @Barsiem. Very helpful to give that context. 
MY POV is that I think that what LCFC and Ipswich have done for half a season is amazing.
However I think it’s statistically likely that one or both will not perform to that exceptional level in the second half of season.
If Saints end up with 92/93 points and don't get automatic I’d be shocked.  I can see us collecting 30 points remaining unbeaten at home rest of season (having already played LCFC, Ipswich and Leeds ) and can also see us taking points from those in our away fixtures too. On the road apart from those three we probably start favourites to win also. It’s not over til it’s over. 

[gammon cheeks]

We will finish 2nd and go up automatically in my opinion 

[CB Fry]

We beat Leeds away on the last day of season to sneak third and drop them into fourth.

We lose play off semi to whoever, West Brom etc.

Leeds promoted.

Edited 17 December, 2023 by CB Fry

[IFHP]

The final games of the season :

Leicester v Blackburn

Ipswich v Huddersfield 

Leeds v Saints

I bet SKY tv are hoping that winner of our game can clinch 2 nd .

[woodsaint1]

Said it on another thread. If we average around 2 points per game by the end of the season (90+ points), then we'll be very close to automatic. We're on track for that despite the bad run. If two teams manage to beat that number then fair dues because its been enough pretty much every season

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, woodsaint1 said:

Said it on another thread. If we average around 2 points per game by the end of the season (90+ points), then we'll be very close to automatic. We're on track for that despite the bad run. If two teams manage to beat that number then fair dues because its been enough pretty much every season

Expect the current top two are both on course to record the highest ever points total in a championship season. So if we average two points a game we’re currently on course to finish further below 2nd place than we are now

[woodsaint1]

4 hours ago, Turkish said:

Expect the current top two are both on course to record the highest ever points total in a championship season. So if we average two points a game we’re currently on course to finish further below 2nd place than we are now

On course yes. Lets see whether they can keep that up. One maybe, dont think both will be able to

[Pamplemousse]

Ipswich have to play Leicester twice still, and have Leeds in their next game.

If we can close the gap to them even to something like 6 points by the end of January, that would be OK.

[Miltonaggro]

Been saying for a while, see where we are at the end of January, personally I think any gap will have closed considerably by then.  We play Leicester away 16 March, Ipswich away 1 April, and Leeds 4 May, so could be a high blood pressure finale.  Would bet on us as more likely sneaking second than winning a play off final.   

[Saint86]

On 17/12/2023 at 08:29, gammon cheeks said:

We will finish 2nd and go up automatically in my opinion 

That is also my thoughts at the moment. Ipswich will fall away, and I think we are in better shape than Leeds. 

At least I hope 😅. I fear our current/general lack of killer instinct in games is unlikely to see us through the playoff compared to your more ruthless/practiced championship plodders. 

Edited 18 December, 2023 by Saint86

[Patches O Houlihan]

Rekindling this discussion because I just read this piece 

https://theathletic.com/5119607/2023/12/08/the-ludicrous-numbers-in-championship-promotion-race-and-what-it-means/

Yes - it's The Athletic - the firm happy to take subscriptions and only then cancel Saints coverage (but not Leeds or Leicester). F**kers

But in the interest of trying to get my money's worth I have a read occasionally. Essentially their journo agrees with our analysis - it's been 118 years since such a strong start was made by the second placed side in the second tier.

But what was most interesting to read was in the comments:

Quote

Chris L  -  Decent article but no reference to the upcoming African Cup of Nations where Leicester will lose Ndidi, Iheanacho and possibly Fatawu. Ndidi will be a huge loss as there dip in form coincided with his previous absence. There continued success will depend on how Maresca covers these temporary departures but he has the squad depth to have a variety of options. The other top teams won’t have the same level of upheaval. [19 likes]

Quote

Tom J  -  Ipswich will lose Cameron Burgess (first choice CB) and Massimo Luongo (first choice CM) to the Asia Cup. And quite possibly may lose club captain and most important player Sam Morsy to AFCON. Unlike Leicester, Ipswich do not have the depth to weather such losses. [13 likes]

Coupled with the top teams playing each other this might play into our hands a little over the coming months...

[Sunglasses Ron]

16 hours ago, Patches O Houlihan said:

Coupled with the top teams playing each other this might play into our hands a little over the coming months...

Well you live in hope I guess. There's also the small matter of our away game at Ipswich.

Sadly, that damaging home defeat to them (and Leicester) will probably end up being our downfall in terms of automatic promotion.

[gio1saints]

22 hours ago, Patches O Houlihan said:

Rekindling this discussion because I just read this piece 

https://theathletic.com/5119607/2023/12/08/the-ludicrous-numbers-in-championship-promotion-race-and-what-it-means/

Yes - it's The Athletic - the firm happy to take subscriptions and only then cancel Saints coverage (but not Leeds or Leicester). F**kers

But in the interest of trying to get my money's worth I have a read occasionally. Essentially their journo agrees with our analysis - it's been 118 years since such a strong start was made by the second placed side in the second tier.

But what was most interesting to read was in the comments:

Coupled with the top teams playing each other this might play into our hands a little over the coming months...

My feeling is that Ipswich are the more vulnerable of the top two. Due to this leagues physical attrition on squads and experience.

I think probability they can repeat their first 52 points from 22 matches form is low.
Bookies agree- they think they will finish on 92 points from 46 games.( spread is actually 91-93) 

In other words Ipswich are predicted to get only 40 points from the next 24 matches. That still, just, sees them auto promoted ahead of Leeds then us according to bookies. 
 

That being the case it suggests bookies feel we need 51 points from last 24 matches for automatic ( 51 + 42= 93) which is just a tad more more than our current average ppg. The equivalent of beating not drawing with Rotherham and Watford. 

Edited 21 December, 2023 by gio1saints

[Chewy]

Ref the afcon and Asia cup, I think it’s only Leicester at a disadvantage. Fatawu, Daka, Soutter, Iheanacho and Ndidi all likely absent. 

We lose Aribo and Kamaldeen, Ipswich probably only Burgess (Luongo retired from internationals, Morsy hasn’t been picked for Egypt for months) and Leeds don’t lose anyone.

If a team makes the final it’s possibly 5 league games they miss. Obviously we’ve been without Kamaldeen for a while and with Shea and Charlie have options instead of Aribo so I’m not overly concerned at our predicament - but we don’t gain any real advantage here over Ipswich.

FWIW the impacted Leicester games are Coventry away, Ipswich home, Swansea home, Stoke away and Watford away. Not the toughest set apart from Ipswich, although Coventry is a local rivalry.