Championship this season

[Turkish]

Saints form would usually be enough to see us comfortably in the top two at this stage. However both Leicester and Ipswich are currently  both on course to achieve the highest points tally ever in the championship, currently held by Reading with 106 in 2005/06 season. Leicester are currently on course to finish on 112 points, Ipswich on 110. Whilst it’s disappointing to be so far behind them it’s also been an insane season that both teams could break the highest ever points total 
 

[Holmes_and_Watson]

I posted this on the match thread earlier,

If, over the last 10 years 89 points has been enough on average to get 2nd.

Leicester would have to fall apart from 2.51 pts per game to 1.54 to just get that.

Ipswich would have to drop from 2.4 to 1.58 to get there.

And, to make it even tougher, Leeds would also have to dip from 2.05 to 1.85 per game to get that.

In 4th, unbeaten in ages, and second in the form league in the last 12, we still need an improvement from 1.9 to 1.96 to get that. Not a huge amount, and reasonably what you'd expect a developing system/ side, with our resources, to be well able to do.

Except that total might not be enough this year, unless there's quite a bit of dipping form elsewhere. Lots of games to go, a busy fixture list that will strain resources and squads.

We went up before with 88. We're on course to get 87 (87.4). So, not much more needed to be achieving that. It just shows you how well the other teams have started.

[Turkish]

Ipswich at Watford Tuesday night be interesting to see how they do there straight after us

[Turkish]

2 minutes ago, Holmes_and_Watson said:

I posted this on the match thread earlier,

If, over the last 10 years 89 points has been enough on average to get 2nd.

Leicester would have to fall apart from 2.51 pts per game to 1.54 to just get that.

Ipswich would have to drop from 2.4 to 1.58 to get there.

And, to make it even tougher, Leeds would also have to dip from 2.05 to 1.85 per game to get that.

In 4th, unbeaten in ages, and second in the form league in the last 12, we still need an improvement from 1.9 to 1.96 to get that. Not a huge amount, and reasonably what you'd expect a developing system/ side, with our resources, to be well able to do.

Except that total might not be enough this year, unless there's quite a bit of dipping form elsewhere. Lots of games to go, a busy fixture list that will strain resources and squads.

We went up before with 88. We're on course to get 87 (87.4). So, not much more needed to be achieving that. It just shows you how well the other teams have started.

So the top two need midtable form which given their first 20 Games ain’t going to happen. I’d be amazed if they both finish on over 100 points but at least one of them probably will. We’re playing for play offs realistically. We should comfortably make that, then anything can happen. It’s a lot more exciting than going up as runners up though that’s for sure. 

[Holmes_and_Watson]

Thanks for the heads up. I'll try and catch that one.

It would be interesting to see if teams who have started really well in previous seasons, have kept going or fallen away.

[ant]

Been mulling over these figures a fair amount this eve, set against some of the dafter caterwauling.

Yes, we've dropped a few points from winning positions. Yes, that four game run fucked us a bit.

But ourselves and Leeds are having a bloody good go at it.

It's just that Leicester and Ipswich are simultaneously having utterly freakish seasons.

You'd hope one (or both!) slips up soon. With nearly half the season gone who'd be brave enough to bet on it, though?

[West end Saints]

4 hours ago, Turkish said:

So the top two need midtable form which given their first 20 Games ain’t going to happen. I’d be amazed if they both finish on over 100 points but at least one of them probably will. We’re playing for play offs realistically. We should comfortably make that, then anything can happen. It’s a lot more exciting than going up as runners up though that’s for sure. 

Agree, winning play offs is the best way to go up, but not the most relaxing! 

 

Last year after 20 games

Burnley 38

Blackburn 36

Sheff U 35

Norwich 32

Watford 32

QPR 31

 

Lower down, 

Luton 29

 

On that basis, I find it hard to believe that anyone, at the start of the season, knowing the disruption in the changing room, low morale, new manager etc, would have thought our 38 points would be anything but a very good start for Russell. 

 

 

 

 

[east-stand-nic]

I think this is a sign that the Championship is starting to become like the EPL. The three sides that have come down are coming down with better and better quads and on top of that the parachute payments, making it harder and harder for the others to get anywhere near them. The obvious exception being Ipswich, but every season there seems to be one of these. I did not think we would finish in the play offs, but if we do, I hope Leeds win second place as i think we would likely have a good chance against all the others.

[Miltonaggro]

Good shout re. Ipswich at Watford. I think time to take stock is the end of January in the hope that the top two have slipped and the gap narrowed. That’s hope rather than judgement.  The squad looks solid but we desperately need a finisher and that’s a big ask in this window, albeit easier in this league than the one above. A Saints v Leeds play off final at Wembley would be very memorable however…

[Weston Super Saint]

10 hours ago, Turkish said:

Saints form would usually be enough to see us comfortably in the top two at this stage. However both Leicester and Ipswich are currently  both on course to achieve the highest points tally ever in the championship, currently held by Reading with 106 in 2005/06 season. Leicester are currently on course to finish on 112 points, Ipswich on 110. Whilst it’s disappointing to be so far behind them it’s also been an insane season that both teams could break the highest ever points total 
 

Perhaps people will now stop with the pointless comparison of our position versus Burnley's from last season, though I doubt it.

[AlexLaw76]

IMO, we shot ourselves in the foot with the appalling group of results earlier in the season.

Before we started this unbeaten run (which the club are promoting a great deal), we lost to Boro and sat 11 points (and 14 goals) behind Ipswich in 2nd place.

Right now, we have jumped loads of places since the defeat to Boro, but sit 10 points (and 14 goals) behind Ipswich in 2nd place.

Unless Ipswich's (or Leicester's) form falls off a cliff, top 2 is is long gone - which we knew I guess

 

Interestingly, we are still to play away to the following teams, WBA, Ipswich, Leicester and Leeds (last game of the season)

 

Edited 10 December, 2023 by AlexLaw76

[Ex Lion Tamer]

4 hours ago, east-stand-nic said:

I think this is a sign that the Championship is starting to become like the EPL. The three sides that have come down are coming down with better and better quads and on top of that the parachute payments, making it harder and harder for the others to get anywhere near them. The obvious exception being Ipswich, but every season there seems to be one of these. I did not think we would finish in the play offs, but if we do, I hope Leeds win second place as i think we would likely have a good chance against all the others.

I think this is overplayed to be honest. How will Shef Utd, Luton and Burnley do next season if they come down? This season is just a freak where you've got three big teams with financial backing on top of the parachute payments 

[east-stand-nic]

1 minute ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

I think this is overplayed to be honest. How will Shef Utd, Luton and Burnley do next season if they come down? This season is just a freak where you've got three big teams with financial backing on top of the parachute payments 

I suspect and would put pretty good money on Burnley and United being top 6 if not better once again. Not sure about Millwall. My point is that there will always be three clubs with bigger money than the other 21 that have just come down, but those 3 always struggle to stay up as the EPL is such a huge gulf of class apart now. This is why which ever of us goes up, will need to spend very big in the summer to even consider safety from relegation. The top 3 and bottom 3 will I think start to become the yo-yo teams every year.

[Turkish]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

IMO, we shot ourselves in the foot with the appalling group of results earlier in the season.

Before we started this unbeaten run (which the club are promoting a great deal), we lost to Boro and sat 11 points (and 14 goals) behind Ipswich in 2nd place.

Right now, we have jumped loads of places since the defeat to Boro, but sit 10 points (and 14 goals) behind Ipswich in 2nd place.

Unless Ipswich's (or Leicester's) form falls off a cliff, top 2 is is long gone - which we knew I guess

 

Interestingly, we are still to play away to the following teams, WBA, Ipswich, Leicester and Leeds (last game of the season)

 

That run of results were horrific but we’ve only lost one more than Leicester. Whats hurting us more if failing to beat Rotherham, Huddersfield and Watford when winning. A late goal Saturday and a failure to win against clubs near the bottom when leading is very poor. Middlesbrough away was another example hasn’t they lost every game until we played them? 1-0 up and then we collapse. Hold onto those leads and there’s your 10 point gap right there. 

[sfc4prem]

1 minute ago, Turkish said:

That run of results were horrific but we’ve only lost one more than Leicester. Whats hurting us more if failing to beat Rotherham, Huddersfield and Watford when winning. A late goal Saturday and a failure to win against clubs near the bottom when leading is very poor. Middlesbrough away was another example hasn’t they lost every game until we played them? 1-0 up and then we collapse. Hold onto those leads and there’s your 10 point gap right there. 

Excellent point. Very fine margins this year, and too often we've let slip our opportunities to catch up. You only get so many chances.

[Noodles34]

I'm fine with it all. It is turning into a good season. Entertaining, we are winning some, still the same old equalisers that we concede but at least we are scoring some now. 

I'm happy with us at the Play off final and losing so we don't have to go back up to that corrupt pile of dirt and make us hurt every week. They will let us down. 

So, yeah, keep doing the same thing Saints. 

[AlexLaw76]

4 minutes ago, Noodles34 said:

I'm fine with it all. It is turning into a good season. Entertaining, we are winning some, still the same old equalisers that we concede but at least we are scoring some now. 

I'm happy with us at the Play off final and losing so we don't have to go back up to that corrupt pile of dirt and make us hurt every week. They will let us down. 

So, yeah, keep doing the same thing Saints. 

Not going up this season (or next) will likely mean we evolve into Stoke City

[saint francis]

9 hours ago, east-stand-nic said:

I think this is a sign that the Championship is starting to become like the EPL. The three sides that have come down are coming down with better and better quads and on top of that the parachute payments, making it harder and harder for the others to get anywhere near them. The obvious exception being Ipswich, but every season there seems to be one of these. I did not think we would finish in the play offs, but if we do, I hope Leeds win second place as i think we would likely have a good chance against all the others.

I have had a premonition for a while that we would get to the playoffs, do well but ultimately lose to Leeds.  

[AlexLaw76]

4 minutes ago, saint francis said:

I have had a premonition for a while that we would get to the playoffs, do well but ultimately lose to Leeds.  

We aint going up this season. No way. Next season, should we bring in quality additions/replacements for obvious departures, is another matter. 

[Noodles34]

14 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Not going up this season (or next) will likely mean we evolve into Stoke City

or going up, we evolve into Burnley

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Noodles34 said:

or going up, we evolve into Burnley

rather be shit in the premier league, than shit in the championship

[Lee On Solent Saint]

56 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Not going up this season (or next) will likely mean we evolve into Stoke City

Who've just sacked Neil, no real surprise there. 

[Lymington Saint]

After 20 games we have 38 points and are 4th.  Nearly 2 points per game but we are 10 points behind Ipswich in 2nd.  In 2011/12 after 20 games we had 42 points and were top.  So we are not doing as badly as some posters would have us believe.  But it does show just how well Leicester and Ipswich are doing.  It's an unusual season.  

Personally if you would have offered me a place in the playoffs this season (which is where we look to be heading) I would have happily taken it after the chaos of last season.  Especially as I think that there is still room for improvement.  Can see us playing Leeds at Wembley in May in the playoff final.

[sfc4prem]

When we were last in the Championship, was it considered a 2-horse race for the top 2 between us and West Ham? I can't remember!

What I can remember, though, is Reading coming out of the deep dark blue and racing to the title to pip us.

 

[Noodles34]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

rather be shit in the premier league, than shit in the championship

rather be competitive in the Championship mate, even be a yo yo club would suit me. Until the top 6/7 fuck off to the Super League, what is the point? 

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Noodles34 said:

rather be competitive in the Championship mate, even be a yo yo club would suit me. Until the top 6/7 fuck off to the Super League, what is the point? 

Never had a problem with it (the league) before the last couple of seasons. We led our own destruction.

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Never had a problem with it (the league) before the last couple of seasons. We led our own destruction.

You mean being the only club to spend any significant time in the premier league having to sell to fund transfers and then when we finally did spend a bit of cash spunked it all on kids and shit? Before we even go there with the farcical managerial situation villa appointed Emery two weeks before we appointed statically the best manager in Europe for example 

[Dusic]

Automatic promotion is still definitely possible but we will newd to string together a couple of runs where we win 5 in a row instead of a couple of wins and then a fruatrsting draw.

Playoffs I think are almost guarenteed.

IMO the only positive spin if we don't manage to go up this season is that even when we lose some players, the three sides who come down won't be anything special compared to Leicester.

In hindsight a particularly bad year to get relegated as proven by all 3 relegated teams being very strong and this years PL much weaker in the bottom third. Next seasons Championship will certainly be weaker.

 

[farawaysaint]

I think we would have a great chance of winning the playoffs and going up anyway so kudos to Leicester and Ipswich if they keep up the form. I'm not going to be annoyed with Ipswich for doing what we did on our last promotion run and frankly I'm just happy to win some games for a change. 

[LGTL]

42 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Automatic promotion is still definitely possible but we will newd to string together a couple of runs where we win 5 in a row instead of a couple of wins and then a fruatrsting draw.

Playoffs I think are almost guarenteed.

IMO the only positive spin if we don't manage to go up this season is that even when we lose some players, the three sides who come down won't be anything special compared to Leicester.

In hindsight a particularly bad year to get relegated as proven by all 3 relegated teams being very strong and this years PL much weaker in the bottom third. Next seasons Championship will certainly be weaker.

 

It's really not. The form of Leicester and Ipswich would have to fall off a cliff, and there's zero sign of that becoming close to happening. We are currently having our longest unbeaten run in years, and we are 10 points off them. After the Middlesbrough game, the last game we lost back in September and on a run of 4 defeats in a row, we were......11 points off them. This is before you even factor Leeds into the equation, but they don't have much chance of it either. 

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, Dusic said:

Automatic promotion is still definitely possible but we will newd to string together a couple of runs where we win 5 in a row instead of a couple of wins and then a fruatrsting draw.

Playoffs I think are almost guarenteed.

IMO the only positive spin if we don't manage to go up this season is that even when we lose some players, the three sides who come down won't be anything special compared to Leicester.

In hindsight a particularly bad year to get relegated as proven by all 3 relegated teams being very strong and this years PL much weaker in the bottom third. Next seasons Championship will certainly be weaker.

 

It isn’t possible.
 

Of the much championed, record breaking, 12 game unbeaten run, we clawed 1 point back against Ipswich. And they had a few dodgy results in that period.

 

[Dusic]

6 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

It isn’t possible.
 

Of the much championed, record breaking, 12 game unbeaten run, we clawed 1 point back against Ipswich. And they had a few dodgy results in that period.

 

Its definitely possible to make up 10 points on a team in 26 matches, including one against them.

As I said we would need a run or two of winning 5 in a row which we should have done nce during this run, but its possible.

[trousers]

18 hours ago, Dusic said:

Its definitely possible to make up 10 points on a team in 26 matches

Possible, of course, but more unlikely than likely 

Edited 12 December, 2023 by trousers

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, Dusic said:

Its definitely possible to make up 10 points on a team in 26 matches, including one against them.

As I said we would need a run or two of winning 5 in a row which we should have done nce during this run, but its possible.

It was possible for us to win the premier league last season also.....

 

[Dusic]

26 minutes ago, trousers said:

Possible, of course, but more unlikely that likely 

Of course, but not as farfetched as some are making it seem. 

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Dusic said:

Of course, but not as farfetched as some are making it seem. 

Recent form suggests it is. 12 games unbeaten, we make up 1 point (and no goals) on Ipswich.

[StrangelyBrown]

The Christmas period should be telling. Have Ipswich got a good enough squad to cope with a few injuries? Can all 4 of us keep up the same relentless runs through a lot of fixtures?

Personally I think at least one team will slip up over the next month or so and I suspect it will be us...

[sfc4prem]

1 hour ago, StrangelyBrown said:

The Christmas period should be telling. Have Ipswich got a good enough squad to cope with a few injuries? Can all 4 of us keep up the same relentless runs through a lot of fixtures?

Personally I think at least one team will slip up over the next month or so and I suspect it will be us...

No chance, mate. I beat someone 5-0 with Saints on FC 24 the other day. They were AC Milan.

 

If Saints can beat AC Milan, they can surely beat any and every team in this league every game without question.

 

Hth.

[Maggie May]

Ipswich surely are the most in form team across the whole of Europe for the 2023 calendar year. There is no chance they are letting up this form.

[VectisSaint]

On 09/12/2023 at 22:30, Turkish said:

So the top two need midtable form which given their first 20 Games ain’t going to happen. I’d be amazed if they both finish on over 100 points but at least one of them probably will. We’re playing for play offs realistically. We should comfortably make that, then anything can happen. It’s a lot more exciting than going up as runners up though that’s for sure. 

Just bear in mind that Ipswich and Leicester have not met so far this season. One or both is going to drop some points in those two matches. Probably best for us if one or other does the double. Ipswich have a difficult run from tomorrow until 22 Jan (Watford A, Norwich H - local derby, Leeds A, Leicester H, QPR, Stoke, Sunderland and then Leicester A). They will be doing very well to keep up their current average between now and end January.

[gio1saints]

I think we can do it. Sure it looks tough and improbable from where we are now but I’m not giving up hope that automatic promotion is possible and hope neither do our supporters and players. Our away support is magnificent and really helping the team on tough trips.  

If our home  support can keep to that level ( and not give up depressed  because it’s impossible we’re doomed to fail etc) then SMS can be our fortress ( for , like, the first time ever.)

Despite the gloominess I think there are MANY positives about SFC. Years of being EPL whipping boys gradually starting to fade and a tiny little bit of self confidence in ourselves club players and support starting to re-emerge. Long may that continue! COYS😇

Edited 12 December, 2023 by gio1saints

[Badger]

4 hours ago, gio1saints said:

Our away support is magnificent and really helping the team on tough trips.  

If our home  support can keep to that level ( and not give up depressed  because it’s impossible we’re doomed to fail etc) then SMS can be our fortress ( for , like, the first time ever.)

Despite the gloominess I think there are MANY positives about SFC. Years of being EPL whipping boys gradually starting to fade and a tiny little bit of self confidence in ourselves club players and support starting to re-emerge. Long may that continue! COYS😇

Really ? Numbers have been quite impressive taking maximum allocations it seems most weeks.

The atmosphere though is varied. Hull very good even in the first half, Huddersfield though was very subdued, even when we were on top in the first half. 

[Weston Super Saint]

15 minutes ago, Badger said:

Really ? Numbers have been quite impressive taking maximum allocations it seems most weeks.

The atmosphere though is varied. Hull very good even in the first half, Huddersfield though was very subdued, even when we were on top in the first half. 

I think we all know who to point the finger at there, with the DEF in attendance....

 

[AlexLaw76]

On 11/12/2023 at 17:51, Dusic said:

Of course, but not as farfetched as some are making it seem. 

Still not far fetched?

[david in sweden]

On 10/12/2023 at 08:13, east-stand-nic said:

I think this is a sign that the Championship is starting to become like the EPL. The three sides that have come down are coming down with better and better quads and on top of that the parachute payments, making it harder and harder for the others to get anywhere near them. The obvious exception being Ipswich, but every season there seems to be one of these. I did not think we would finish in the play offs, but if we do, I hope Leeds win second place as i think we would likely have a good chance against all the others.

Promoted Championship teams are still miles away in performance level - from clubs in the Prem. drop zone, and often struggle to stay up a second season.

Both Leeds and Leicester were below the required standard to survive last season, but with mostly the same squads are now firmly back on track for a quick return

whereas last season's promoted sides are already " feeling the draught " .  The skill gap between the two leagues is far greater than merely those 3 places.

Despite a 10 point deduction.. Everton look on course to survive in a league they could have been relegated from 3 years ago.    Such is the real difference.

 

This season . Ipswich look to emulate Saints' double promotions from L1 to Prem. in two seasons -  IF  they can retain their good start , but we must admit that

Saints' situation is somewhat different in that having survived for the last 3 seasons, it became inevitable when we were relegated and forced to sell off

our " crown jewels"  and " the also-rans ", along with those who didn't make the grade from many fruitless transfer deals in the Reed /Wilson years.

 

Instead, following a season with 3 managers ..and now  a fourth (in Russell Martin) we have has cobbled together a squad - some of whom signed as a teenagers -

and others who had never played any senior football in their short careers,  but with the exception of  " the September nightmare " and  a few hiccups along the

way, have turned in some good results in a few " lacklustre performances" .. but still managed to earn some well-deserved points.  

Goalkeeping errors (?) are not the sole cause of lost points, as we still lack some really good strikers.. (thanks goodness for Adam Armstrong's efforts) who can 

regularly contribute more goals, and who are failing to convert the decisive chances that win games outright. 

It is wrong to continue praising and criticising from game to game, but by the end of the year we may have a clearer picture of our needs and expectations. 

[Alanh]

https://theathletic.com/5119607/2023/12/08/the-ludicrous-numbers-in-championship-promotion-race-and-what-it-means/

 

[Ted Bates Statue]

Relevant quote from Farke in the article shared by @Alanh

"It’s sometimes a coincidence when two or three teams are winning that many points. Over 46 games it can level in the end and if you are there with an average of two (points per game), like we are at the moment, then definitely happy days."

Hopefully that'll be us by the end of the season (and tonight, as we climb our way up the table). 

[S-Clarke]

On 11/12/2023 at 20:46, Maggie May said:

Ipswich surely are the most in form team across the whole of Europe for the 2023 calendar year. There is no chance they are letting up this form.

Reminds me of us when we got promoted from L1, they're just riding on a crest of a wave with some good young players who they have moulded into a really, really good team.

Not sure any of their players will quite got onto the hights our team did (International honours etc), but they're using all that momentum right now to sweep aside anyone. I reckon Leeds will pip them to 2nd though, just a feeling I have. Might face them in the playoffs.

[Alanh]

This is a freak year.  Leicester AND Ipswich have got the top two most points after 20 games ever recorded.  All of the top 15 in the list attached went on to be promoted.

 

[S-Clarke]

1 hour ago, Alanh said:

This is a freak year.  Leicester AND Ipswich have got the top two most points after 20 games ever recorded.  All of the top 15 in the list attached went on to be promoted.

 

It puts some perspective on it for sure, but look at the GD - even ignoring those big losses, we're still way down in terms of scoring enough in my opinion.

Points wise we're in the usual ball park, but we simply don't score enough. Defensibly we've improved ten-fold in the last 13 or so games, but too many 1-1's and such in that run.