east-stand-nic Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Probably gonna get pelters for saying this, but at least 8 of these games are totally winnable. In fact, I see no reason why we should not win all 11. Most of these clubs should finish below us...I can only see Cardiff and WBA anywhere near our level (Potentially). If we did win 8, draw two and somehow lose one, we would amass 26 points, giving us 50 in total from 25 games. Surely this has to be the aim? Millwall v Southampton Southampton v West Bromwich Albion Huddersfield Town v Southampton Southampton v Bristol City Southampton v Cardiff City Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Millwall v Southampton - lose Southampton v West Bromwich Albion - draw Huddersfield Town v Southampton - win Southampton v Bristol City - draw Southampton v Cardiff City - win Watford v Southampton - draw Coventry City v Southampton - win Southampton v Blackburn Rovers - lose Queens Park Rangers v Southampton - lose Southampton v Swansea City - draw Southampton v Plymouth Argyle - win 16 points. Predictions based on typical Saints inconsistency, not what I think will happen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErwinK1961 Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 These threads never end well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 4 minutes ago, Saint_clark said: [b]Millwall v Southampton - lose[/b] Southampton v West Bromwich Albion - draw Huddersfield Town v Southampton - win Southampton v Bristol City - draw Southampton v Cardiff City - win Watford v Southampton - draw Coventry City v Southampton - win Southampton v Blackburn Rovers - lose Queens Park Rangers v Southampton - lose Southampton v Swansea City - draw Southampton v Plymouth Argyle - win 16 points. Predictions based on typical Saints inconsistency, not what I think will happen. Millwall have won 1 in 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Just now, Nolan said: Millwall have won 1 in 7. Sounds like a typical Saints game to lose, then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 They are all winnable, as are most of the fixtures in this league, given that we have better players than most other teams. If we play as well as we can and can consistently convert chances, like yesterday, we can beat anyone. Inconsistency has been our biggest downfall this season though - but we're on a reasonably good unbeaten run now and playing with confidence - and most of those teams have been stuttering/struggling. It's difficult to actually pick a loss from those fixtures, even when trying to be pessimistic. I think Millwall away will be tough as could Watford be - but I see no reason why we can't get 20+ points from those - I think I've gone with 22 but I'm not going to list them for fear of reprimand in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 10 minutes ago, Saint_clark said: Sounds like a typical Saints game to lose, then. Southampton have not lost this season to anyone currently in the bottom half of the table. It would be atypical to lose that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Just now, Nolan said: Southampton have not lost this season to anyone currently in the bottom half of the table. It would be atypical to lose that one. We lost to Sunderland and Middlesbrough when they were bottom half - if Millwall beat us they will be on 20 points, level with 9th so probably top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamesaint Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 37 minutes ago, east-stand-nic said: Probably gonna get pelters for saying this, but at least 8 of these games are totally winnable. In fact, I see no reason why we should not win all 11. Most of these clubs should finish below us...I can only see Cardiff and WBA anywhere near our level (Potentially). If we did win 8, draw two and somehow lose one, we would amass 26 points, giving us 50 in total from 25 games. Surely this has to be the aim? Millwall v Southampton Southampton v West Bromwich Albion Huddersfield Town v Southampton Southampton v Bristol City Southampton v Cardiff City Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle No pelters from me. Not only do I think that you are correct but I also think we have to aim for something like that if we are to have any hope of catching Ipswich and Leicester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 30 minutes ago, Nolan said: Southampton have not lost this season to anyone currently in the bottom half of the table. It would be atypical to lose that one. 26 minutes ago, Saint_clark said: We lost to Sunderland and Middlesbrough when they were bottom half - if Millwall beat us they will be on 20 points, level with 9th so probably top half. hence the use of the word Currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Just now, Nolan said: hence the use of the word Currently. Not really relevant though is it? If we lose to Millwall you could then still say we haven't lost to anyone currently in the bottom half, even though they are currently in the bottom half. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 11 games. Potential of 33 points. If we say 11 points out of 15 is decent for us, which was what we were on last week for our 5-game form. Let's say we aim for that. We would end up with 24 points from that potential 33. That would put us on 48 points. I'd be pretty disappointed with anything less than 45 points total after the next 11 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintant Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 1 hour ago, Tamesaint said: No pelters from me. Not only do I think that you are correct but I also think we have to aim for something like that if we are to have any hope of catching Ipswich and Leicester. Nobody is catching Leicester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 1 hour ago, Saint_clark said: Not really relevant though is it? If we lose to Millwall you could then still say we haven't lost to anyone currently in the bottom half, even though they are currently in the bottom half. Odds of the other games going their way to lift Millwall from 18th to 12th if they win are very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Pointless looking that far ahead in such an inconsistent league, look at Middlesbrough losing 5 then winning 6 impossible to tell form, plus bound to be more suspensions and injuries as bookings mount up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamplemousse Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Hopefully by the end of the year we'll be closer to Ipswich (forget about Leicester, they're getting 100 points plus) and have a few points buffer to 7th spot. The league is so tight that just having a bit of consistent form can push you right up the table as we've found, so long may it continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie May Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 1 hour ago, Nolan said: Odds of the other games going their way to lift Millwall from 18th to 12th if they win are very slim. Just stop, you guaranteeing a defeat with this methodology! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Wolf Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 4 hours ago, Nolan said: Millwall have won 1 in 7. Oh I hate playing teams "on a bad run" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bad Wolf said: Oh I hate playing teams "on a bad run" Have they got a new manager yet, that will be another thing that will result in a home win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maggie May said: Just stop, you guaranteeing a defeat with this methodology! Nah... its time there was some optimism and not the constant defeatism. We can still potentially hit 120 points this season. 👼 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 1 hour ago, JRM said: Have they got a new manager yet, that will be another thing that will result in a home win Especially if they appoint Nathan. Remember how he had an immediate impact with us ? Well, he probably won’t have the same effect on them if he doesn’t have six weeks to confuse them with his tactics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 4 hours ago, saintant said: Nobody is catching Leicester. Can’t Leicester have a 10 point deduction for Vardy being a cunt ? And another 10 for something his wife has done or said ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonaggro Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 13 minutes ago, Badger said: Especially if they appoint Nathan. Remember how he had an immediate impact with us ? Well, he probably won’t have the same effect on them if he doesn’t have six weeks to confuse them with his tactics. You’d like to think he’s been refining his skills during his time off. Basically he’s coming back into the game as the Bill Shankly of the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Even if we were in the habit of scoring loads of goals, keeping loads of clean sheets, and winning games comfortably, then I’d still say we’re not going to be going on a winning run like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 Bristol City were a bogey team last time in the Championship I recall. They’ve sacked Pearson today so might also be with a ‘new manager bounce’ when we play them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 29 October, 2023 Share Posted 29 October, 2023 7 hours ago, Pamplemousse said: Hopefully by the end of the year we'll be closer to Ipswich (forget about Leicester, they're getting 100 points plus) and have a few points buffer to 7th spot. The league is so tight that just having a bit of consistent form can push you right up the table as we've found, so long may it continue. Yeah I actually hope Leicester win all their remaining matches (except against us of course), to take points off our rivals. We have no hope of catching them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 11 November, 2023 Share Posted 11 November, 2023 On 29/10/2023 at 08:06, east-stand-nic said: Probably gonna get pelters for saying this, but at least 8 of these games are totally winnable. In fact, I see no reason why we should not win all 11. Most of these clubs should finish below us...I can only see Cardiff and WBA anywhere near our level (Potentially). If we did win 8, draw two and somehow lose one, we would amass 26 points, giving us 50 in total from 25 games. Surely this has to be the aim? Millwall v Southampton ✅ Southampton v West Bromwich Albion ✅ Huddersfield Town v Southampton Southampton v Bristol City Southampton v Cardiff City Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle just keeping tally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodymatt Posted 11 November, 2023 Share Posted 11 November, 2023 This next run is probably our kindest run of fixtures this season. 20 points from our last 8 games. You hope we can get even more than that from the next 9. This is our chance to make up ground. If it wasn’t for that mental Rotherham result, we would have 2 points per game, which is usually promotion form. Might need a bit more this season as those top 2 are currently averaging 2.43 per game but not sure that is sustainable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
east-stand-nic Posted 12 November, 2023 Author Share Posted 12 November, 2023 Well, that was IMO, the hardest of the 11 fixtures i posted about. So, really now from the last 9 of those 11, we should be on for at least 7 wins. I don't wish to disrespect the opposition, but we should be winning all of them really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted 12 November, 2023 Share Posted 12 November, 2023 Worth noting, we are still away to.... WBA, Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds.... However, the league/form table could change a little for those games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamesaint Posted 12 November, 2023 Share Posted 12 November, 2023 2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said: Worth noting, we are still away to.... WBA, Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds.... However, the league/form table could change a little for those games. Those games are going to be key six pointers. Great fun. I prefer to play those away from home so a draw is normally a good result with the home team dropping 2 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamplemousse Posted 12 November, 2023 Share Posted 12 November, 2023 So annoying we played Ipswich and Leicester in our worst period. If we were to play them now I'd back us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
east-stand-nic Posted 13 November, 2023 Author Share Posted 13 November, 2023 11 hours ago, Pamplemousse said: So annoying we played Ipswich and Leicester in our worst period. If we were to play them now I'd back us. I have noticed this kind of thing happen to Saints a lot over the years. Fixture list luck. We never get it. We never get to play teams when either they are off form or we are on form, it is usually the other way around, as you have pointed out. It can make a huge difference to a seasons points tally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, east-stand-nic said: I have noticed this kind of thing happen to Saints a lot over the years. Fixture list luck. We never get it. We never get to play teams when either they are off form or we are on form, it is usually the other way around, as you have pointed out. It can make a huge difference to a seasons points tally. In my many years of supporting Saints, more often than not the worst type of team for us to be facing are those that are in poor form... or those with a striker that haven't scored in ages... #saintsy Edited 13 November, 2023 by trousers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osvaldorama Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 07:45, east-stand-nic said: Well, that was IMO, the hardest of the 11 fixtures i posted about. So, really now from the last 9 of those 11, we should be on for at least 7 wins. I don't wish to disrespect the opposition, but we should be winning all of them really. Watford are playing well. That will be tough. QPR away is always tough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dusic Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 The December period will be crucial. From 9th Dec to Boxing Day, Ipswich have: Boro (away), Watford (away), Norwich (home), Leeds (away), Leicester (home). Thats a pretty tough run at this level and surely if they are to slip up its going to be during a period like this. Leeds also have a tricky spell from 2nd to 29th Dec: Boro (home), Blackburn (away), Sunderland (away), Cov (home), Ipswich (home), Preston (away), WBA (away). If we are going to make up ground and put ourselves in a really good position then we have to do it during the next two months when our best looking run of games coincides with others hardest spells and where our deep squad should help in the Christmas period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 22 hours ago, Pamplemousse said: So annoying we played Ipswich and Leicester in our worst period. If we were to play them now I'd back us. Plus Rotherham , another two points from that game could make the difference at the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 13 minutes ago, JRM said: Plus Rotherham , another two points from that game could make the difference at the end of the season. That result was hugely frustrating at the time, coming only three games after our losing streak, but in the overall context of the last eight games it has actually aged a bit better. Better to draw that and win the games against Leeds, WBA and Hull, who are currently our main rivals. Im actually reasonably happy we played the good teams when we were sh*t. It’s better than wasting our winnable fixtures being sh*t, like Jones did last season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 3 hours ago, Lighthouse said: That result was hugely frustrating at the time, coming only three games after our losing streak, but in the overall context of the last eight games it has actually aged a bit better. Better to draw that and win the games against Leeds, WBA and Hull, who are currently our main rivals. Im actually reasonably happy we played the good teams when we were sh*t. It’s better than wasting our winnable fixtures being sh*t, like Jones did last season. But doesn't that sort of contradict the sentence before it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 13 November, 2023 Share Posted 13 November, 2023 1 hour ago, Dark Munster said: But doesn't that sort of contradict the sentence before it? It’s a fair point but as of right now, neither of those teams is a rival. Many are predicting Ipswich in particular to drop away but until then it’s mainly just wishful thinking and a nine point gap will be very hard to overcome. Obviously things may look completely different in May, for E.g. West Brom might plummet into the bottom half and our head to head will seem irrelevant, retrospectively. As of right now though, we’re beating the teams around us in the table (WRBC were there or there about at the time we played them too) and that could prove crucial, much like the four points against West Ham last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nolan Posted 14 November, 2023 Share Posted 14 November, 2023 (edited) The absolute best representation of where we are an how we're doing is the Transfermarkt representation of Matches by League Position Southampton FC - Schedule 23/24 | Transfermarkt Shows where we dropped points to our positional rivals, and who we should pick up points from Edited 14 November, 2023 by Nolan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 14 November, 2023 Share Posted 14 November, 2023 The quicker we invent time travel the better then all these people obsessed with predictive stats can nip into the future for five minutes and find out what really happened. For me the excitement and expectation of not knowing is the whole point of watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
east-stand-nic Posted 3 December, 2023 Author Share Posted 3 December, 2023 Well, 13/15 points so far on that list of 11 games. If we can do the same again from the next 5, I think we will be 3rd and pushing Ipswich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 3 December, 2023 Share Posted 3 December, 2023 On 29/10/2023 at 09:19, sfc4prem said: 11 games. Potential of 33 points. If we say 11 points out of 15 is decent for us, which was what we were on last week for our 5-game form. Let's say we aim for that. We would end up with 24 points from that potential 33. That would put us on 48 points. I'd be pretty disappointed with anything less than 45 points total after the next 11 games. So we've bettered our form at the time of going into this set of fixtures. Rather than 11/15, we've 13/15. We have this lot still to go. Watford could be tricky. Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle I said I'd be disappointed with anything less than a 45 point total after the full 11 games. Well, only 8 points to go to get 45! Two wins two draws. I'd now be disappointed with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 3 December, 2023 Share Posted 3 December, 2023 3 hours ago, sfc4prem said: So we've bettered our form at the time of going into this set of fixtures. Rather than 11/15, we've 13/15. We have this lot still to go. Watford could be tricky. Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle I said I'd be disappointed with anything less than a 45 point total after the full 11 games. Well, only 8 points to go to get 45! Two wins two draws. I'd now be disappointed with that! Yes I agree 8 points from those six games would now be disappointing hopefully at least twelve as we are due for a loss and often under perform in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 3 December, 2023 Share Posted 3 December, 2023 Hopefully get to 50 by the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 3 December, 2023 Share Posted 3 December, 2023 4 minutes ago, hypochondriac said: Hopefully get to 50 by the new year. Will just be pleased to get to 40. Should be enough to keep us up even with 46 games 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc4prem Posted 24 December, 2023 Share Posted 24 December, 2023 On 03/12/2023 at 08:58, sfc4prem said: So we've bettered our form at the time of going into this set of fixtures. Rather than 11/15, we've 13/15. We have this lot still to go. Watford could be tricky. Watford v Southampton Coventry City v Southampton Southampton v Blackburn Rovers Queens Park Rangers v Southampton Southampton v Swansea City Southampton v Plymouth Argyle I said I'd be disappointed with anything less than a 45 point total after the full 11 games. Well, only 8 points to go to get 45! Two wins two draws. I'd now be disappointed with that! I said I'd be disappointed with anything less than 45 points by the end of the year. Looks like we're on course to better that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
east-stand-nic Posted 24 December, 2023 Author Share Posted 24 December, 2023 5 minutes ago, sfc4prem said: I said I'd be disappointed with anything less than 45 points by the end of the year. Looks like we're on course to better that! It really needs to be 51, but I would not die if we ended up with 49. If we can finish second, great. But if not us, I want Leeds second, and Ipswich with us in the playoffs. If the two of us finish 3rd and 4th, we might meet in the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry_SFC Posted 24 December, 2023 Share Posted 24 December, 2023 35 minutes ago, east-stand-nic said: It really needs to be 51, but I would not die if we ended up with 49. If we can finish second, great. But if not us, I want Leeds second, and Ipswich with us in the playoffs. If the two of us finish 3rd and 4th, we might meet in the final. Agree. I wouldn't want to meet Leeds in the play off final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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