Whitey Grandad Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 24 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said: We must be the unluckiest team in the world. The amount of goals we've conceded this season that 'no keeper is ever going to save is huge', especially from Championship level players. Maybe there is something we do that turns the opposition into world class players for a short while. Yes there is. We leave gaping holes in our defence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galway saint Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said: Yes there is. We leave gaping holes in our defence. but so do other teams and who concede more goals so that’s no answer to why he appears at the bottom of this particular table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintquin Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Anyone who blames him for those goals yesterday really have no idea about football at all. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baird of the land Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 hours ago, FarehamSaintJames said: It’s very easy to see all our goals scored this season, but I would be fascinated to see those conceded and how many Bazunu is culpable for; and that includes defensive fuck ups that have put him under pressure. Isn't that what those stats show (really negatively) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TS22 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 those xg stats are nonsence, based on them he should have saved 1.26 of the goals yesterday but if you watch the game he has no chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 He worries me with his clearances and goal kicks that always look panicked and often nearly go straight to the attacker, but to be fair to him with the way we play he has more back passes to deal with than any other keeper in the league! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) He wasn’t to blame for either goal yesterday,but occasionally I’d like to think “how did he get to that”. I can count the brilliant saves he’s made in his Saints career on the fingers of one hand. That’s my issue, I’m left asking “could he have done better there”, far far more than “how did he get to that”. Good with his feet, bang average at actual goal keeping. Edited March 10 by Lord Duckhunter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 9 hours ago, Galway saint said: but so do other teams and who concede more goals so that’s no answer to why he appears at the bottom of this particular table You know what I think about these sorts of tables and this just proves me right, in my subjective opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galway saint Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 18 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: You know what I think about these sorts of tables and this just proves me right, in my subjective opinion. all personal opinions are inevitably subjective but yes you’re quite clear in that you don’t think this sort of analysis tells us anything worthwhile. i think the fact he regularly appears towards the bottom of this type of table reflects the fact he simply doesn’t make enough saves, but I agree it’s not the whole story. perhaps Bazanu can be a really good keeper and still appear regularly at the bottom of this sort of table but when I look at that table it just reinforces my opinion that he doesn’t make enough saves and rarely wins points for us. to be clear he couldn’t do anything about the goals yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsBarry74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 17 minutes ago, Galway saint said: all personal opinions are inevitably subjective but yes you’re quite clear in that you don’t think this sort of analysis tells us anything worthwhile. i think the fact he regularly appears towards the bottom of this type of table reflects the fact he simply doesn’t make enough saves, but I agree it’s not the whole story. perhaps Bazanu can be a really good keeper and still appear regularly at the bottom of this sort of table but when I look at that table it just reinforces my opinion that he doesn’t make enough saves and rarely wins points for us. to be clear he couldn’t do anything about the goals yesterday. Last season he finished with an xG of -15.7, the second worse keeper in the league, Danny Ward (Leicester) finished at -7.5. Now the same pattern continues in the championship, his distrubution is his strength, but as far as shot-stopping goes he's non-league level. If we do gain promotion this season, then I predict we're going right back down the season after if we persist with Baz in goal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galway saint Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 21 hours ago, SaintsBarry74 said: Last season he finished with an xG of -15.7, the second worse keeper in the league, Danny Ward (Leicester) finished at -7.5. Now the same pattern continues in the championship, his distrubution is his strength, but as far as shot-stopping goes he's non-league level. If we do gain promotion this season, then I predict we're going right back down the season after if we persist with Baz in goal. If we go up he will be No 1 and if we don’t go up he will be No 1. No one will sign him from the premier league because he’s not good enough and he’s not so bad we would buy somebody else to replace him particularly given how much we spent on him and how much time has been invested in him. he will probably be here for years to come which will please some and not others ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Bates Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Joe Lumley is gonna be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintquin Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 3 hours ago, Master Bates said: Joe Lumley is gonna be good. Absolutely fablous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 10/03/2024 at 12:36, TS22 said: those xg stats are nonsence, based on them he should have saved 1.26 of the goals yesterday but if you watch the game he has no chance. Xg is different to the XgC stat for keepers. Expected goals is the likelihood a player will score in a certain situation, taking into account position, angle of shot, type of pass played and position of defence and keeper (and a lot more). XgC is about the likelihood of a keeper making a save from a certain type of shot. The two stats won't perfectly align because a low Xg chance like a shot from the edge of the box first time like we saw against Sunderland, would also be a low chance of the keeper saving once it took the massive deflection. What the stat posted shows is that Bazunu has conceded more chances that statistically goalkeepers would normally save than any other keeper in the league. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weston Super Saint Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, Saint_clark said: What the stat posted shows is that Bazunu has conceded more chances that statistically goalkeepers would normally save than any other keeper in the league. And some people think a good tactic would be to not bother trying to block any shots from the opposition! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintquin Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 13 hours ago, Saint_clark said: Xg is different to the XgC stat for keepers. Expected goals is the likelihood a player will score in a certain situation, taking into account position, angle of shot, type of pass played and position of defence and keeper (and a lot more). XgC is about the likelihood of a keeper making a save from a certain type of shot. The two stats won't perfectly align because a low Xg chance like a shot from the edge of the box first time like we saw against Sunderland, would also be a low chance of the keeper saving once it took the massive deflection. What the stat posted shows is that Bazunu has conceded more chances that statistically goalkeepers would normally save than any other keeper in the league. Does it also take into account the player taking the shot? A striker more likely to score then a center half! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, saintquin said: Does it also take into account the player taking the shot? A striker more likely to score then a center half! Most likely, yes. All these stats are worked out using crazy AI algorithms using hundreds of thousands of data points from decades of football games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TS22 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Sunderlands first goal had an xgot of 0.10. Expected stats are nonsence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 16 hours ago, Saint_clark said: Most likely, yes. All these stats are worked out using crazy AI algorithms using hundreds of thousands of data points from decades of football games. Have you made that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 18 hours ago, saintquin said: A striker more likely to score than a center half! Not if it’s Che Adams 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said: Have you made that up? No, that's literally how the XG stats are calculated. It's how likely a chance is to be scored based on similar chances being scored or not in the past and the only way to work that out is using AI as it would be impossible for a human to sit down and look at that amount of data in such a short time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Saint_clark said: No, that's literally how the XG stats are calculated. It's how likely a chance is to be scored based on similar chances being scored or not in the past and the only way to work that out is using AI as it would be impossible for a human to sit down and look at that amount of data in such a short time frame. AI is not very intelligent. xG never gets anywhere near actual Goals which proves that it is a useless indicator and can be safely ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ex2001 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said: AI is not very intelligent. xG never gets anywhere near actual Goals which proves that it is a useless indicator and can be safely ignored. Now that’s just silly and failing to understand the statistics. If they were totally useless then the professionals in the game wouldn’t use them and the outcome of them wouldn’t so closely align with the good players and the not so good. Baz is a half decent goal keeper but as the stats confirm he isn’t in the top drawer which I think even the most casual observer would agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said: AI is not very intelligent. xG never gets anywhere near actual Goals which proves that it is a useless indicator and can be safely ignored. Nonsense. No point trying to explain it to you, you dismiss it out of hand probably because you refuse to put in the necessary effort to understand it. New fangled technology. All I'll say is if you look back through results on flashscores, for every team that scored over their X.G there's a team that scored under it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roo1976 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 9 minutes ago, Saint_clark said: Nonsense. No point trying to explain it to you, you dismiss it out of hand probably because you refuse to put in the necessary effort to understand it. New fangled technology. All I'll say is if you look back through results on flashscores, for every team that scored over their X.G there's a team that scored under it. so did the ball go in or not............................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 9 hours ago, Saint_clark said: Nonsense. No point trying to explain it to you, you dismiss it out of hand probably because you refuse to put in the necessary effort to understand it. New fangled technology. All I'll say is if you look back through results on flashscores, for every team that scored over their X.G there's a team that scored under it. That’s exactly my point. I have spent my professional life using technology and I have a good understanding of statistics and stochastics. These methods are the sort of stuff that gamblers use to try to justify whether to bet on red or black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 9 hours ago, a1ex2001 said: Now that’s just silly and failing to understand the statistics. If they were totally useless then the professionals in the game wouldn’t use them and the outcome of them wouldn’t so closely align with the good players and the not so good. Baz is a half decent goal keeper but as the stats confirm he isn’t in the top drawer which I think even the most casual observer would agree with. No and yes. And like you say, even the casual observer can see the difference between the good and not so good player. We don’t need any stats to know that Baz is not top drawer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 45 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: No and yes. And like you say, even the casual observer can see the difference between the good and not so good player. We don’t need any stats to know that Baz is not top drawer. You don't need the stats but they are a useful tool for adding weight to what you see with your eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, hypochondriac said: You don't need the stats but they are a useful tool for adding weight to what you see with your eyes. Or if you haven’t seen the game(s) at all. There are many things to criticise xG for and how accurate it could ever be. However the statement “xG never gets anywhere near actual Goals which proves that it is a useless indicator and can be safely ignored.” just demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of what it actually tries to do. Edited March 14 by The Kraken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said: No and yes. And like you say, even the casual observer can see the difference between the good and not so good player. We don’t need any stats to know that Baz is not top drawer. But what is top draw Both him and Kelleher of Liverpool play for Ireland and since 2021 Baz has played twice as many times than Kelleher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osvaldorama Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 It’s boring to talk about now really. He’s nowhere near good enough at the goalkeepers main job - preventing goals. But for whatever reason the club want to back him, even at the club’s expense. So all we can do is pretend he is good enough and hope he develops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coalman Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 On 12/03/2024 at 20:20, Saint_clark said: Most likely, yes. All these stats are worked out using crazy AI algorithms using hundreds of thousands of data points from decades of football games. That's not how xG is calculated. It's a human subjective measure of the quality of opportunity which differs between every stats outlet based upon the people calculating it and likely to be inconsistent over time. AI has nothing to do with it. Also, there's no such thing as a "crazy AI algorithm". AI is a set of methods for training a model towards a desirable set of outputs from a (hopefully) useful data set. You can get a crazy model but a model is not an algorithm. At its best case, xG is a potentially interesting measure subject to a high degree of human interpretation. As a signal for any kind of AI model it's little better than noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lymington Saint Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Baz is 22 and still learning his trade. He was thrown in the deep end last season when he should have been out on loan. This season has been better, but still some weaknesses. Be interesting to see where he is in 2 or 3 years time. My view is that he wont be a top 6 prem keeper but decent. I think that some of the criticisms on this thread are a bit harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 (edited) 3 hours ago, John B said: Both him and Kelleher of Liverpool play for Ireland and since 2021 Baz has played twice as many times than Kelleher May explain this. The FAI announced on 22 November 2023 that Kenny's contract would not be renewed. Kenny recorded only six wins in 29 competitive matches during his tenure. #bazball Edited March 14 by Lord Duckhunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 hours ago, John B said: But what is top draw? Not sure. But I don't think you put your clothes in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade Garrett Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 The guy has a suspect technique and is a poor shot stopper. That’s got nothing to do with experience either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 8 hours ago, coalman said: That's not how xG is calculated. It's a human subjective measure of the quality of opportunity which differs between every stats outlet based upon the people calculating it and likely to be inconsistent over time. AI has nothing to do with it. Also, there's no such thing as a "crazy AI algorithm". AI is a set of methods for training a model towards a desirable set of outputs from a (hopefully) useful data set. You can get a crazy model but a model is not an algorithm. At its best case, xG is a potentially interesting measure subject to a high degree of human interpretation. As a signal for any kind of AI model it's little better than noise. Algorithm Vs model is just arguing semantics, we both mean exactly the same thing. And AI is absolutely used to work out XG. No human interpretation at all, it's simple maths. Striker receives a ball on the penalty spot, takes a touch and shoots right footed with no defenders between him and the goal. How many times has that sort of chance been created, how many times has it been scored, how many times has it been missed, computer uses all the information from the past to work out the likelihood that it would be scored and that gives the XG value, regardless of whether it is actually scored or not. Someone COULD sit down and work out the XG for themselves, but at the volume it's happening across so many leagues and it being so readily available as the game progresses it requires a much faster processing speed than the human brain can manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 9 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said: May explain this. The FAI announced on 22 November 2023 that Kenny's contract would not be renewed. Kenny recorded only six wins in 29 competitive matches during his tenure. #bazball Seems a strange response to me with a Republic of Ireland squadlike this it is hardly surprising they do not win many matches Goalkeepers: Bazunu (Southampton), Kelleher (Liverpool), Travers (Bournemouth) Defenders: Coleman (Everton), Doherty (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Collins (Brentford), Omobamidele (Nottingham Forest), O'Shea (Burnley), Scales (Celtic), O'Brien (Lyon), Brady (Preston), Ebosele (Udinese). Midfielders: Cullen (Burnley), Knight (Bristol City), Smallbone (Southampton), McGrath (Aberdeen), O'Dowda (Cardiff City), Sykes (Bristol City), Azaz (Middlesbrough), Johnston (West Bromwich Albion). Forwards: Ferguson (Brighton), Idah (Celtic, on loan from Norwich), Obafemi (Millwall, on loan from Burnley), Szmodics (Blackburn), Ogbene (Luton Town), Parrott (Excelsior, on loan from Tottenham). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmes_and_Watson Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 A squad with Baz and Smallbone! I appreciate they don't get as much time with the players, but the foundation of International MartinBall is right there. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Duckhunter Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 14 hours ago, Holmes_and_Watson said: A squad with Baz and Smallbone! Fuck me Kenny is a fucking miracle worker winning 6 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmes_and_Watson Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 50 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said: Fuck me Kenny is a fucking miracle worker winning 6 games. Oh, my God! They sacked Kenny!", "You bastards! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintsBarry74 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Change nothing else but the GK last season and I guarantee you we don't get relegated. xG of -15,7 with the 2nd worse keeper having "only" half of that ffs. Change nothing else but the GK this season and I guarantee you we'd be trailing Leicester on the table right now. We clearly have no problem scoring goals, our major issue is letting in goals we shouldn't be letting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Billy Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Does XG take into account a shit defence in front of the goalkeeper? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLaw76 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, Saint Billy said: Does XG take into account a shit defence in front of the goalkeeper? well, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, SaintsBarry74 said: Change nothing else but the GK last season and I guarantee you we don't get relegated. xG of -15,7 with the 2nd worse keeper having "only" half of that ffs. Change nothing else but the GK this season and I guarantee you we'd be trailing Leicester on the table right now. We clearly have no problem scoring goals, our major issue is letting in goals we shouldn't be letting in. And I guarantee you it would not have made any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osvaldorama Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 9 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said: And I guarantee you it would not have made any difference. Why even have a keeper then? If they make no difference and you choose to ignore stats. May as well just blindly trust him. I know… why don’t we stick a cone in goal with a photo of bazunu’s face? After all, changing the keeper makes no difference. You’d still be here defending him anyway as he’s clearly your grandson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 A keeper as good as Pickford may have kept us up last season, as he did for Everton, but we’re talking about a a very good keeper and a very big maybe. You’re basically talking about one very good player bailing out a lot of crap ones, we’d still have had an awful team with two terrible managers. This season Baz has been very good and there’s no other realistic Championship option we’d be doing better with. He has strengths and weaknesses, just like anyone else, but overall performs well at this level. For some reason people talk as if he’s making howlers every couple of games and never makes a decent save. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 20 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said: Why even have a keeper then? If they make no difference and you choose to ignore stats. May as well just blindly trust him. I know… why don’t we stick a cone in goal with a photo of bazunu’s face? After all, changing the keeper makes no difference. You’d still be here defending him anyway as he’s clearly your grandson Reductio ad absurdum. Don’t be so ridiculous. We finished 11 points, effectively 12, from safety. I ignore the so-called stats because they are an irrelevant nonsense. And what makes you think I am defending him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galway saint Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, Lighthouse said: A keeper as good as Pickford may have kept us up last season, as he did for Everton, but we’re talking about a a very good keeper and a very big maybe. You’re basically talking about one very good player bailing out a lot of crap ones, we’d still have had an awful team with two terrible managers. This season Baz has been very good and there’s no other realistic Championship option we’d be doing better with. He has strengths and weaknesses, just like anyone else, but overall performs well at this level. For some reason people talk as if he’s making howlers every couple of games and never makes a decent save. I just can’t see he’s been ‘very good’. His distribution is decent but as a goalkeeper he remains very ordinary. I’d say he’s league one or two level. All that’s changed from last season is that we are now a big fish in a small pond and therefore he is less exposed. He’s still got the same problems, shot stopping down to his left, poor positioning and the fact he just doesn’t make enough saves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said: I ignore the so-called stats because they are an irrelevant nonsense. You also don’t understand them, to be fair, which is also a consideration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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