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13 minutes ago, egg said:

I'm with SoG - I'm not sure what actual point you're trying to make.

The protests in support of Palestine have been largely peaceful. Sure, there'll be idiots amongst that lot like the person shouting Jihad, and those people should be dealt with accordingly.

The peaceful protesters have been treated as they should be, ie left to it.

 

Me neither tbf. Apart from that it’s apparently a relief that the police didn’t take the knee.

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43 minutes ago, egg said:

I'm with SoG - I'm not sure what actual point you're trying to make.

The protests in support of Palestine have been largely peaceful. Sure, there'll be idiots amongst that lot like the person shouting Jihad, and those people should be dealt with accordingly.

The peaceful protesters have been treated as they should be, ie left to it.

 

The point is, those clearly inciting hatred (illegal activity) within the demonstrations are seemingly allowed to do so unchecked. Which, if remain unchecked could easily escalate at the next demonstration, which I am sure will be pretty soon.

Hopefully that is clear enough.

 

Edited by AlexLaw76
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9 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

The point is, those clearly inciting hatred (illegal activity) within the demonstrations are seemingly allowed to do so unchecked. Which, if remain unchecked could easily escalate at the next demonstration, which I am sure will be pretty soon.

Hopefully that is clear enough.

 

So your complaint is that you think that some people who in your considered opinion were inciting hate, should have been arrested. Gotcha. 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67185260

It's a live stream so link will be redundant soon I guess, but looks like the Prime Minister has been using different 'forensic' evidence and British intelligence have concluded the hospital blast is likely to have come from Gaza.

 

Screenshot 2023-10-23 164547.png

 

I think that's UK and US intelligence that have reached the same conclusions now.

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11 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67185260

It's a live stream so link will be redundant soon I guess, but looks like the Prime Minister has been using different 'forensic' evidence and British intelligence have concluded the hospital blast is likely to have come from Gaza.

 

Screenshot 2023-10-23 164547.png

 

I think that's UK and US intelligence that have reached the same conclusions now.

…to sway Arab Leaders/Saintweb posters

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Lots more pieces on global media channels, all in an effort to soften the audience up for a full invasion of Gaza.

Just a few more US forces detachments to be moved around in the region, then it will full on.

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No doubt they will be producing the evidence soon then which refutes the forensic information that shows that the projectile that caused the explosion in the car park was launched from the NE and not the SW as originally claimed. I notice that Sunak is still using the word “likely”. Doesn’t sound that firm does it given that they have had several days now to investigate. It would be good to have something conclusive though, I’m sure you will agree.

Given the thousands of innocent men, women and children that have been killed by Israeli air strikes so far though this particular incident is becoming less relevant by the day.

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26 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

No doubt they will be producing the evidence soon then which refutes the forensic information that shows that the projectile that caused the explosion in the car park was launched from the NE and not the SW as originally claimed. I notice that Sunak is still using the word “likely”. Doesn’t sound that firm does it given that they have had several days now to investigate. It would be good to have something conclusive though, I’m sure you will agree.

is that Channel 4's forensic information?

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34 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

No doubt they will be producing the evidence soon then which refutes the forensic information that shows that the projectile that caused the explosion in the car park was launched from the NE and not the SW as originally claimed. I notice that Sunak is still using the word “likely”. Doesn’t sound that firm does it given that they have had several days now to investigate. It would be good to have something conclusive though, I’m sure you will agree.

I imagine they will continue to use "likely" unless / until someone provides a video of the missile being launched and landing. Unlikely that exists though.

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6 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I imagine they will continue to use "likely" unless / until someone provides a video of the missile being launched and landing. Unlikely that exists though.

Exactly.

CNN’s report on it is pretty well defined on what is considered the likely cause, given the bulk of forensic evidence already analysed. The only other thing I’ve seen providing any sort of ‘forensic’ rebuke of the general thinking is the Channel 4 link provided yesterday, and even that doesn’t debunk the general analysis of where the rocket took off from.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/21/middleeast/cnn-investigates-forensic-analysis-gaza-hospital-blast/index.html

An Al Jazeera camera, located in western Gaza and facing east, was broadcasting live on the channel at 6:59 p.m. local time on Tuesday night, according to the timestamp. The footage appears to show a rocket fired from Gaza traveling in an upwards trajectory before reversing direction and exploding, leaving a brief, bright streak of light in the night sky above Gaza City. Just moments later, two blasts are visible on the ground, including one at Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. 

By verifying the position of the camera, CNN was able to determine that the rocket was fired from an area south of Gaza City. CNN geolocated the hospital blast by referencing nearby buildings just west of the complex. Footage taken from a webcam in Tel Aviv pointing south towards Gaza, that CNN synched with the Al Jazeera live feed, shows a volley of rockets from Gaza shortly before the blast. 

Several weapons experts told CNN that the Al Jazeera video appeared to show a rocket burning out in the sky before crashing into the hospital grounds, but that they could not say with certainty that the two incidents were linked – due to the challenges of calculating the trajectory of a rocket that had failed or changed course mid-flight. 

“I believe this happened – a rocket malfunctioned, and it didn’t come down in one piece. It’s likely it fell apart mid-air for some reason and the body of the rocket crashed into the car park. There, the fuel remnants caught fire and ignited cars and other fuel at the hospital, causing the big explosion we saw,” Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert who has worked on analysis for NATO and the European Union, told CNN. 

“But it’s impossible for me to confirm. If a rocket malfunctioned… it is impossible to predict its flight path and behavior, so I wouldn’t be able to draw on usual analysis drawing on altitude, flight path and the burn time,” he added.

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From a journalist on X:

I just saw indescribable, raw footage of Hamas’ massacre along with 100 other international journalists, provided by Israeli authorities. Here are the notes I took: 

1: Hamas terrorist screaming Allah Akhbah as he frantically tries to behead a dead man with a shovel.

There was more, all pretty gruesome. Hamas have to be wiped out, some people need to think about which side they’re on.

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2 minutes ago, iansums said:

From a journalist on X:

I just saw indescribable, raw footage of Hamas’ massacre along with 100 other international journalists, provided by Israeli authorities. Here are the notes I took: 

1: Hamas terrorist screaming Allah Akhbah as he frantically tries to behead a dead man with a shovel.

There was more, all pretty gruesome. Hamas have to be wiped out, some people need to think about which side they’re on.

It’s pretty difficult to take any side in this, apart from that of the innocent people of Palestine and Israel who are bearing the brunt of repugnant acts from Hamas and the Israeli government.

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4 minutes ago, The Kraken said:

It’s pretty difficult to take any side in this, apart from that of the innocent people of Palestine and Israel who are bearing the brunt of repugnant acts from Hamas and the Israeli government.

Not really. I know what side I am on although that doesn’t mean I support everything Israel is doing.

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16 minutes ago, whelk said:

Not really. I know what side I am on although that doesn’t mean I support everything Israel is doing.

Agreed. A liberal democracy (with plenty of faults I’d admit) or an evil terrorist organisation that wants to see an entire race wiped out.

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46 minutes ago, iansums said:

From a journalist on X:

I just saw indescribable, raw footage of Hamas’ massacre along with 100 other international journalists, provided by Israeli authorities. Here are the notes I took: 

1: Hamas terrorist screaming Allah Akhbah as he frantically tries to behead a dead man with a shovel.

There was more, all pretty gruesome. Hamas have to be wiped out, some people need to think about which side they’re on.

Hamas will never be eradicated though. Even if they are, there's Hezbollah, and others. Regardless, the idealogy remains, and it'll be amplified by the Israeli reprisals. 

Both sides are murderous, and although I can understand why the horrific behaviour of Hamas on 7/10 takes focus away from what Israel have being doing to Palestinians for a long time, the dispute needs to be looked at as a whole.

Wherever people stand in this, I'm as sure as I can be that the longer Israel attack Gaza, the worse the cycle of violence will get, not better. 

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4 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

The point is, those clearly inciting hatred (illegal activity) within the demonstrations are seemingly allowed to do so unchecked. Which, if remain unchecked could easily escalate at the next demonstration, which I am sure will be pretty soon.

Hopefully that is clear enough.

 

On the balance of probabilities there were a large number of people inciting hatred, but that’s not how our courts determine guilt. I imagine plod have quite a lot of of footage from body cameras and other sources & some who crossed over into “beyond a reasonable doubt” territory will be having their collars felt over the next few days. They probably made an operational decision not to arrest people on the day, because it would only inflame things.  

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2 hours ago, iansums said:

From a journalist on X:

I just saw indescribable, raw footage of Hamas’ massacre along with 100 other international journalists, provided by Israeli authorities. Here are the notes I took: 

1: Hamas terrorist screaming Allah Akhbah as he frantically tries to behead a dead man with a shovel.

There was more, all pretty gruesome. Hamas have to be wiped out, some people need to think about which side they’re on.

Let’s hope some of these cunts parents and siblings have been killed in the bombing

 

IMG_0685.jpeg

IMG_0686.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The more proof it wasn’t the Israelis,  the less relevant it becomes. 

Interesting isn't it. I wonder if there were cast iron proof that it was the Israelis how irrelevant it would be in those circumstances to some people? I think we all know the answer. 

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51 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

On the balance of probabilities there were a large number of people inciting hatred, but that’s not how our courts determine guilt. I imagine plod have quite a lot of of footage from body cameras and other sources & some who crossed over into “beyond a reasonable doubt” territory will be having their collars felt over the next few days. They probably made an operational decision not to arrest people on the day, because it would only inflame things.  

you are probably (hopefully) correct

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2 hours ago, whelk said:

Not really. I know what side I am on although that doesn’t mean I support everything Israel is doing.

It’s not a fucking football match, you can be on the side of innocent people wether they live in Israel or the Gaza Strip.

What Hamas did was awful but so is what Israel is doing now, 5000 dead supposedly about half of that figure is kids.

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5 minutes ago, aintforever said:

It’s not a fucking football match, you can be on the side of innocent people wether they live in Israel or the Gaza Strip.

What Hamas did was awful but so is what Israel is doing now, 5000 dead supposedly about half of that figure is kids.

I think many are on the side of sending these stone age/medieval nutters to have a dinner date with the mythical Allah

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25 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

 

Screenshot_20231023_210217_X.jpg

17 MPs actually voted against proscribing Hamas as a terrorist group. No surprise that Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott were amongst them, people who would now be PM, Chancellor & Home Secretary had certain posters got the election result they wanted. Frightening to think of those 3 spearheading The UK’s response to 7/10. 

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31 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

17 MPs actually voted against proscribing Hamas as a terrorist group. No surprise that Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott were amongst them, people who would now be PM, Chancellor & Home Secretary had certain posters got the election result they wanted. Frightening to think of those 3 spearheading The UK’s response to 7/10. 

Terrifying. Even if you knew none of the absolutely shocking details of these atrocities, the fact you've got the likes of little Owen Jones, Narinder Kaur, Adil Ray, India Willoughby and Corbyn himself obviously downplaying the actions of Hamas and supporting these disgraceful scenes in London and elsewhere shows you who your bedfellows are if you're on the side of Jihad. 

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I used to be somebody who bought into the Palestinian narrative, I really did. If I could suggest to Palestinian supporters that (apart from sacking their director of communications);

  • You distance yourself from Hamas because when hostages and bodies were being paraded through the streets of Gaza there seemed to be a good turnout of folk to beat and spit at them. Not a good look.
  • if you are going to carry out an attack of medieval barbarism on a democratic society that you don't go to a music festival where all of the most liberal leaning, peaceful and sympathetic parts of your enemy are enjoying themselves and dancing....... and then butcher them. 
  • That in the UK your supporters do not frighten and intimidate the Jewish community off the streets. Over here we are very defensive about all people being able to walk our streets.
  • Don't call for Jihad - its so 12th century
  • You release the hostages. It stops people saying 'serves you right'.

Do this and we can call out the actions of the Israeli government more often than we probably did and should have done before.

 

 

Edited by Sergei Gotsmanov
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10 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

It was disgusting how the allies murdered all those German kids in 1942. 

You can't compare a world war with how a country deals with a terrorist group within it's own population.

No-one is on the side of Hamas here, the more innocent Palestinians die the more hatred for Israel builds up amongst the Palestinians and their Arab neighbours - it just makes things like the Oct 7 massacre more likely in the future.

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8 minutes ago, aintforever said:

You can't compare a world war with how a country deals with a terrorist group within it's own population.

No-one is on the side of Hamas here, the more innocent Palestinians die the more hatred for Israel builds up amongst the Palestinians and their Arab neighbours - it just makes things like the Oct 7 massacre more likely in the future.

So did the allies murder German children or not? It's their neighbouring population. Plenty of examples of a neighbour attacking the country next to them and causing civilian casualties. 

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19 minutes ago, aintforever said:

You can't compare a world war with how a country deals with a terrorist group within it's own population.

No-one is on the side of Hamas here, the more innocent Palestinians die the more hatred for Israel builds up amongst the Palestinians and their Arab neighbours - it just makes things like the Oct 7 massacre more likely in the future.

What would your response to the terrorist attacks have been?

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I can imagine in WW2 a number of posters would be preaching that we need to win over the hearts and minds, concede Poland etc. after all the more Germans you kill the more little Nazi sympathisers you create. No one can ever be beaten by force.

 

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1 minute ago, hypochondriac said:

What would your response to the terrorist attacks have been?

I have asked that before and think the answer was go to the UN. But don’t forget the UN list Israel as far more evil than any other country

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27 minutes ago, whelk said:

I can imagine in WW2 a number of posters would be preaching that we need to win over the hearts and minds, concede Poland etc. after all the more Germans you kill the more little Nazi sympathisers you create. No one can ever be beaten by force.

 

That's exactly why world war two is relevant to this discussion (no idea why the fact it was a world war makes it somehow irrelevant.) Arguably force against Hamas is even more justified than against the Nazis given that when the war started they hadn't committed any atrocities against the UK directly. Civilian casualties are unfortunately inevitable and there's plenty of evidence that many in Hamas welcome them because it makes them look more sympathetic. IMO Israel give more of a shit about Palestinians than Hamas do. If Hamas cared they wouldn't be setting up bases in hospitals, using civilians as human shields and forcing civilians to stay in place after evacuation orders. 

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Long post, but hopefully worthwhile.

* * * * *

I was speaking with a couple of people in the intelligence community this morning. Obviously I won't say who!

Anyway, here is their assessment of what happens next. Further background below.

SCENARIOS

- Best case scenario: IDF pursues ground campaign in Gaza with no further intervention from Iranian proxies. Will take months and result in tens of thousands of civilian deaths. See, e.g. Mosul or Falujah. Will radicalise swathes of young Arabs across the region and cause lots of terrorism in the future. That's the best case. Estimated as relatively unlikely.

- Similarly likely next scenario: IDF pursues Gaza campaign. See above.... plus Iranian proxies react but in a fairly restrained way. A few token rockets but no sustained attack on critical infrastructure. Hezbollah is the big worry. It is Hamas multiplied massively in terms of capability. It has precision weapons and more of them. It could target power stations, water plants, population centres etc. IDF ends up embroiled in a second front in Lebanon as well. See above, plus more radicalisation and economic and social unrest spreading directly inside and outside Israel.

- More likely scenario: scenario 2 above but a bigger response from Hezbollah - attacking infrastructure deeper inside Israel, for example -  and from the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Iraq as well as Yemeni Houthis. Risk of further escalation. Potential hotspots in Kuwait and Bahrain. Potential for US plus allies to have to get directly involved. The ongoing current US deployment in the region is the reason why the Gaza invasion is being delayed.

- Extreme scenario: situation escalates beyond Iranian proxy involvement and into direct Iranian military involvement.  Potential direct attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Triggers GCC defence pact, meaning Saudi and UAE (plus others) enter into war with Iran. Who knows how far that goes....  Considered least likely.

Whatever happens, big wave of terrorism very likely in UK, France, Germany, Turkey etc. in short to medium term.

So, pretty bleak, seeing as the best case is horrible.

To the extent there are positives.... they don't consider Russia has any material resources to spare and is quite fucked militarily in Ukraine. They don't consider China has any appetite to get involved in a war in the middle east. It is sending warships over but that is to protect Chinese energy assets but nothing else. 

WHY DID THIS HAPPEN NOW?

Saudi Arabia wants the region to settle down and to focus on economic growth. Economic growth and stability means Saudi will be regional superpower. Iran does not want Saudi to be regional superpower. Of the Sunni Gulf states, Saudi is the only one with a big population and the hugest natural resources.

Iran and Saudi did a deal in Beijing in March. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/what-you-need-know-about-chinas-saudi-iran-deal

One of the main concerns of Saudis is the Syrian captogen empire. Bashir Assad and his family are making TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars manufacturing and distributing captogen and a lot of it ends up in Saudi. The Hamas attackers were apparently off their nut on Captogen. That Syrian regime has been relying on Russia and Iran over recent years in the Syrian civil war. Saudi wanted Iran to help sort this out but it hasn't. 

Saudi obviously also wanted to ensure the Israel / Palestine situation didn't flare up and to have better relations with Israel, following the accords signed by Bahrain and UAE.

It's become clear that the Saudi / Iran deal was, for Iran, just a way for Iran to buy some time whilst deceiving the Saudis and Iran is simply too paranoid/resentful to allow Saudis to pursue harmonious development plans.

Obviously this ties in with a lot of public speculation, so there is nothing massively sensitive here, but thought it would be interesting to share. Of course, this also doesn't address the question of what a "post-Gaza Israel" ends up being, but if, at least, the local power of Hamas is removed then perhaps the Palestinian Authority and Israel can do some sort of deal.

However, it looks like this could all go quite bad.

Edited by benjii
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17 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Lots more pieces on global media channels, all in an effort to soften the audience up for a full invasion of Gaza.

Just a few more US forces detachments to be moved around in the region, then it will full on.

Aye.

15 minutes ago, benjii said:

 

- More likely scenario: scenario 2 above but a bigger response from Hezbollah - attacking infrastructure deeper inside Israel, for example -  and from the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Iraq as well as Yemeni Houthis. Risk of further escalation. Potential hotspots in Kuwait and Bahrain. Potential for US plus allies to have to get directly involved. The ongoing current US deployment in the region is the reason why the Gaza invasion is being delayed.

-

 

Edited by AlexLaw76
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1 hour ago, whelk said:

I can imagine in WW2 a number of posters would be preaching that we need to win over the hearts and minds, concede Poland etc. after all the more Germans you kill the more little Nazi sympathisers you create. No one can ever be beaten by force.

 

There's a world of difference between Nazi Germany and Hamas. For starters, Germany wanted to occupy, whereas Hamas (and the Palestinians) are being occupied. Hamas, and the wider Palestinian resistance, will breed as a consequence of the force. Nazi Germany were an altogether different beast. 

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2 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

What would your response to the terrorist attacks have been?

One that put a bit more value on the lives of the innocent people living in Gaza. It looks to me like Israel are just dishing out collective punishment as revenge more than trying to destroy specific Hamas targets.

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54 minutes ago, aintforever said:

One that put a bit more value on the lives of the innocent people living in Gaza. It looks to me like Israel are just dishing out collective punishment as revenge more than trying to destroy specific Hamas targets.

Tellng the civilans in the north of Gaza to evacuate to the safety of the south, then bombing the south.

 

On the subject of WW2, the allied strategic bombing campaign was arguably a failure. "Bomber" Harris rose through the ranks of the RAF in the '30s when the Big Idea was that "the bomber would always get through", and after a couple of pastings the enemy civilian population would cave in. It didn't happen in the Blitz, and it certainly didn't happen in Germany. Harris drew up a list of every German population centre over a certain size and systematically flattened them. When he got to the end of his list he went back to the start and began the process again. Even Churchill ended up casting doubt on the plan. For quite a while German military productivity actually increased as the level of bombing rose.

Why was Dresden bombed ? It was 1945 and the war was almost over - it was done to appease the Russians. As with the earlier fire bombing of Hamburg, they knew full well that tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of civilians would die, especially as the city was full of refugees fleeing the Red Army.

Just about the only time terror bombing has worked is the dropping of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ( which was the backup target, the primary target, Kokura, was shrouded in cloud and smoke and the bombardier on Bock's Car could not get an accurate sighting, so after 3 abortive bomb runs they diverted to Nagasaki ). The Emperor of Japan was advised that surrender was the only option, but some in the military tried to carry out a coup and continue the war.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

How many innocent men, women & children died? And do you consider the dropping of those bombs a war crime? 

Lots and yes. To deliberately target a civilian population, or to fail to minimise the impact of a military action on such a population, is a war crime. However, hindsight and revisionism are wonderful tools.

What exactly was your point ?

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3 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

What would your response to the terrorist attacks have been?

Go in to Gaza and get the terrorists, which is what they are planning or take over the region, but without the bombing of Gaza beforehand.

The bombing before is to make it safer for the Israel army, at the expense of the Palestinian lives. Without the extensive bombing before hand, there will be a greater loss of army combatants but less loss of civilian lives.

In the longer term the lack of the deterrent of being able to destroy Gaza (which hasn't worked) and military operations that have a greater potential loss of their own lives, might make the Israel government look for a peace solution. But I completely understand why this is almost impossible for them to do at this time, but whilst each side reacts with violence, this 70 year old conflict isn't ending.

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3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Lots and yes. To deliberately target a civilian population, or to fail to minimise the impact of a military action on such a population, is a war crime. However, hindsight and revisionism are wonderful tools.

What exactly was your point ?

That throughout history innocent people have died because of the actions of those that lived amongst them & perpetrated evil in their name.

Every single one of the thousands that have died since 7/10 would be alive now if it wasn’t for their fellow  Palestinians attacking Jews. 

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1 hour ago, aintforever said:

One that put a bit more value on the lives of the innocent people living in Gaza. It looks to me like Israel are just dishing out collective punishment as revenge more than trying to destroy specific Hamas targets.

So what would your response have been then? 

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10 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

Go in to Gaza and get the terrorists, which is what they are planning or take over the region, but without the bombing of Gaza beforehand.

The bombing before is to make it safer for the Israel army, at the expense of the Palestinian lives. Without the extensive bombing before hand, there will be a greater loss of army combatants but less loss of civilian lives.

In the longer term the lack of the deterrent of being able to destroy Gaza (which hasn't worked) and military operations that have a greater potential loss of their own lives, might make the Israel government look for a peace solution. But I completely understand why this is almost impossible for them to do at this time, but whilst each side reacts with violence, this 70 year old conflict isn't ending.

And if going in and getting the terrorists leads to lots of civilian casualties as it undoubtedly will? You'll have the same people upset and saying Israel have murdered people. Hamas insist on hiding in civilian populations because they don't give a fuck about the Palestinian civilians. If they wanted to reduce civilian casualties they could do so but choose not to because they believe it to be good for them when average Palestinians die. 

At least you recognise that it's not possible for them to look for a peaceful solution following these atrocities unlike some people who effectively want them to do nothing or very little in response to such barbarism. 

Edited by hypochondriac
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43 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Tellng the civilans in the north of Gaza to evacuate to the safety of the south, then bombing the south.

Did they explicitly say that? Hamas targets are fair game. Or do you think they targeted convoys of civilians? 

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