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The Championship Thread - 2023/24


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9 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Comparing to a points tally 10 years ago is completely pointless. This league differs a fair bit year-on-year.

 

So. Suppose when you go buy your new house you don’t check what it last sold for and what neighbours sold for in order to come to a better understanding of what the par price is? 
 

Only mathematicians take the view that history is irrelevant. They have the most exacting standards for fact verification of any discipline. For most normal humans historical facts are not the bible- but they do offer at least SOME idea of what has happened previously. And on sites like these that can be entertaining

Of course this year is exceptional blah blah blah last year irrelevant I get it. But if you don’t know your history then……

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43 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Comparing to a points tally 10 years ago is completely pointless. This league differs a fair bit year-on-year.

 

I think that is the point, we are doing far better than last time but it still might not be good enough. Shows how much harder promotion is for us this time around and a bit of fun to just see how we compare against last time out for Saints, a side often labelled as stronger than our current one in various forum topics/discussions.

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1 hour ago, goodymatt said:

I think that is the point, we are doing far better than last time but it still might not be good enough. Shows how much harder promotion is for us this time around and a bit of fun to just see how we compare against last time out for Saints, a side often labelled as stronger than our current one in various forum topics/discussions.

Its all very 'saintsy' to look at how good we are and pat ourselves on the back, but ultimatley fall short of achieving anything. 

minimal sucess this season is promotion and nothing less. True sucess will be winning the leauge and then staying up next season. 

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On 29/12/2023 at 16:39, coalman said:

Joe Aribo - £70K
Jan Bednarek - £60K
Alex McCarthy - £50K
Jack Stephens - £45K
Will Smallbone - £25K
Sekou Mara - £25K
Flynn Downes - £25K
Kyle Walker-Peters - £20K
Gavin Bazunu - £20K

If that's true it's insane. Aribo has played ok recently but no way he's worth 70K. No way is KWP worth 20K. 

It isn't

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6 hours ago, gio1saints said:

It is remarkable how many points Leicester have got compared to above. Record breaking. 


And the historical data for getting promoted from this league also makes for interesting reading. For example Pompey are in the top ten most points to get out of this league ( I think with 92) and for me that’s an interesting secondary target for Saints in back of my mind😂😇.

Though be prewarned - by posting “ statistical data” on here guaranteed some misery guts will pipe up with “ those stats are BS and only tell you what happened then - not what is going to happen now”. They failed History at school as well btw. 🤭
 

Which isn't true.  You got a pelting for combining logic with historical data.

You may as well compare apples and pears.

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Getting what you call a “pelting” from the likes of you and the couple of other obvious trolls is somewhat of an occupational hazard here. 
FWIW I was not referring to you or the obvious trolls in the post above. 

There IS a Luddite faction on here that any time you use stats or data or even modern football jargon will just use it as excuse to vent personal abuse on the poster. Just try it - say “ “ Expected goals” or even a prediction of how many points we might finish on, God forbid- by looking at what’s happened in the past as a guide - and somebody will come on to attack the poster not the post. Just like you. 

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On 19/01/2024 at 11:08, gio1saints said:

 

here we are c/o the Athletic: 

In the last ten years 96 points was going to get you second place. There was no surely about it. 
This year is a ridiculous outlier for top teams points hence my use of term “ surely” . 

“If we get 96 points this season surely it will be enough “ is not crazy logic. 
 

Second place finishes, 2014-2023
SEASON TEAM FINAL TALLY
 
 
 
2013-14
Burnley
93
2014-15
Watford
89
2015-16
Middlesbrough
89
2016-17
Brighton
93
2017-18
Cardiff City
90
2018-19
Sheffield United
89
2019-20
West Brom
83
2020-21
Watford
91
2021-22
Bournemouth
88
2022-23
Sheffield United
91

 

On 19/01/2024 at 11:42, gio1saints said:

I am not extrapolating it. Stats are not a guarantee of future performance but it’s better than nothing - or pure opinion. 

 

Getting “ pelters” for my posting stuff like the above says more about the pelters than about me. 

A reasonable discussion about how many points might be needed for automatic using some historical info for context attacked and sneered at for “ using logic” like it’s a swear word. 😂

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10 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

Getting what you call a “pelting” from the likes of you and the couple of other obvious trolls is somewhat of an occupational hazard here. 
FWIW I was not referring to you or the obvious trolls in the post above. 

There IS a Luddite faction on here that any time you use stats or data or even modern football jargon will just use it as excuse to vent personal abuse on the poster. Just try it - say “ “ Expected goals” or even a prediction of how many points we might finish on, God forbid- by looking at what’s happened in the past as a guide - and somebody will come on to attack the poster not the post. Just like you. 

The poster and the post are intrinsically linked.

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1 minute ago, gio1saints said:

 

Getting “ pelters” for my posting stuff like the above says more about the pelters than about me. 

A reasonable discussion about how many points might be needed for automatic using some historical info for context attacked and sneered at for “ using logic” like it’s a swear word. 😂

Oh dear, you still don't get it.

You used the term 'surely it will be enough'.  There is nothing 'sure' about what you posted except to say that in the previous 10 seasons it was enough.  Nothing about what you posted makes it 'sure' that 96 points will be enough this season - unless you can guarantee Ipswich don't have another purple patch.

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Please do not “Oh dear” me because that kind of passive aggressive comment is simply childish. And I don't think you are a child. 
 

“Surely” was used in the rhetorical sense. It was not meant as definitive or definitely. And I explain that in my posts elsewhere as you can see ( but ignore) 

If I posted “96 points is definitely going to be enough to get automatic and here are ten years stats to prove it “ - that’s obviously easy to dismantle as an argument - without incidentally personally abusing me in the process - But I did not so I’m not getting your indignation. 

How many points do YOU think will be enough for automatic. And why? 😁
 

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46 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

Getting what you call a “pelting” from the likes of you and the couple of other obvious trolls is somewhat of an occupational hazard here. 
FWIW I was not referring to you or the obvious trolls in the post above. 

There IS a Luddite faction on here that any time you use stats or data or even modern football jargon will just use it as excuse to vent personal abuse on the poster. Just try it - say “ “ Expected goals” or even a prediction of how many points we might finish on, God forbid- by looking at what’s happened in the past as a guide - and somebody will come on to attack the poster not the post. Just like you. 

Off subject somewhat, but what is your opinion on Broja and his ceiling compared to Adam Armstrong?

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1 hour ago, gio1saints said:

Please do not “Oh dear” me because that kind of passive aggressive comment is simply childish. And I don't think you are a child. 
 

“Surely” was used in the rhetorical sense. It was not meant as definitive or definitely. And I explain that in my posts elsewhere as you can see ( but ignore) 

If I posted “96 points is definitely going to be enough to get automatic and here are ten years stats to prove it “ - that’s obviously easy to dismantle as an argument - without incidentally personally abusing me in the process - But I did not so I’m not getting your indignation. 

How many points do YOU think will be enough for automatic. And why? 😁
 

Oh dear.

Just enjoy the ride and stop over analysing everything!

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Purely for my curiosity, tried alternative current form process to estimate possible target points. I felt that Leicester were out of reach as their current form after an amazing start would see them home...

Current form is a good indicator, but it is hard to argue whether 6 , 10 , 12 games I the best indictor.

There are 18 games left, so thought would look whether 18 game current form from the last 18 games,  if mirrored for the next and final 18 games would leave us too short to go up automatically...

Happy for anyone to check my maths..

Leicester 95

Ipswich 93

Saints 100

Leeds 92

 

Please check as was surprised. The way the club have played since 7 October put us on target to win the league even if team don't have blimp but carry on as they are.

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8 minutes ago, West end Saints said:

Purely for my curiosity, tried alternative current form process to estimate possible target points. I felt that Leicester were out of reach as their current form after an amazing start would see them home...

Current form is a good indicator, but it is hard to argue whether 6 , 10 , 12 games I the best indictor.

There are 18 games left, so thought would look whether 18 game current form from the last 18 games,  if mirrored for the next and final 18 games would leave us too short to go up automatically...

Happy for anyone to check my maths..

Leicester 95

Ipswich 93

Saints 100

Leeds 92

 

Please check as was surprised. The way the club have played since 7 October put us on target to win the league even if team don't have blimp but carry on as they are.

Why not use last 28 games?

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10 minutes ago, West end Saints said:

Purely for my curiosity, tried alternative current form process to estimate possible target points. I felt that Leicester were out of reach as their current form after an amazing start would see them home...

Current form is a good indicator, but it is hard to argue whether 6 , 10 , 12 games I the best indictor.

There are 18 games left, so thought would look whether 18 game current form from the last 18 games,  if mirrored for the next and final 18 games would leave us too short to go up automatically...

Happy for anyone to check my maths..

Leicester 95

Ipswich 93

Saints 100

Leeds 92

 

Please check as was surprised. The way the club have played since 7 October put us on target to win the league even if team don't have blimp but carry on as they are.

Jesus wept.

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4 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Why not use last 28 games?

 

13 minutes ago, West end Saints said:

Purely for my curiosity, tried alternative current form process to estimate possible target points. I felt that Leicester were out of reach as their current form after an amazing start would see them home...

Current form is a good indicator, but it is hard to argue whether 6 , 10 , 12 games I the best indictor.

There are 18 games left, so thought would look whether 18 game current form from the last 18 games,  if mirrored for the next and final 18 games would leave us too short to go up automatically...

Happy for anyone to check my maths..

Leicester 95

Ipswich 93

Saints 100

Leeds 92

 

Please check as was surprised. The way the club have played since 7 October put us on target to win the league even if team don't have blimp but carry on as they are.

Think maybe you could have worked out using last 28 without my help?!

Don't know why triggered CB's most common response? It's not doing you any harm, it is explained and harmless, without any controversial opinion!

I'm not saying it will happen, I did it expecting to see this good run, with only 18 games left, would show we are not making anywhere enough progress against Leicester .

 

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Just now, West end Saints said:

 

Think maybe you could have worked out using last 28 without my help?!

Don't know why triggered CB's most common response? It's not doing you any harm, it is explained and harmless, without any controversial opinion!

I'm not saying it will happen, I did it expecting to see this good run, with only 18 games left, would show we are not making anywhere enough progress against Leicester .

 

So you found a sweet spot for the number of games that would best suit what you were looking for.

I look forward to us exactly matching the results of the last 18 games during the next 18 - how about an 18 game accumulator, you will retire a very rich man.

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42 more points is somewhere between 14 wins and 4 defeats or 12 wins and 6 draws - therefore extending our unbeaten run to 38 games, the entire post September season.

Yeah sure it's possible but it's optimism rather than some mathmatical forecast, especially when you dismiss the likes of Leicester achieving anything like that when they are literally eight points ahead of us already.

 

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On 23/01/2024 at 07:32, West end Saints said:

 

Think maybe you could have worked out using last 28 without my help?!

Don't know why triggered CB's most common response? It's not doing you any harm, it is explained and harmless, without any controversial opinion!

I'm not saying it will happen, I did it expecting to see this good run, with only 18 games left, would show we are not making anywhere enough progress against Leicester .

 

Thank you West End Saint for your research.  I found that way of looking at it interesting and encouraging. 

I been doing stuff like that since I was a kid….how many points we can get from XYZ matches, how many will ( usually relegation) rivals get from there matches…then adjusting it for being more or less lucky or optimistic.

Just harmless fun. Never lose your positive curiosity about the “ what might happen!” 😇
 

 

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3 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Mentioned this yesterday, they keep chattering about our run only coming against the poor sides.

But we've played and beaten Leeds, WBA, Hull etc in that period, drawn away at Coventry and Norwich. You don't go 25 games unbeaten by having only done the poor sides, it's daft to think that - they're just scrapping around for chinks to focus on.

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10 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Mentioned this yesterday, they keep chattering about our run only coming against the poor sides.

But we've played and beaten Leeds, WBA, Hull etc in that period, drawn away at Coventry and Norwich. You don't go 25 games unbeaten by having only done the poor sides, it's daft to think that - they're just scrapping around for chinks to focus on.

That record is massively skewed by those 4 defeats in september all against teams in the top half, who started well when we were still finding our feet.

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Just now, Saint_clark said:

That record is massively skewed by those 4 defeats in september all against teams in the top half, who started well when we were still finding our feet.

Yep absolutely that as well, although Boro were bottom 3 when they beat us (their first win of the season).

Being beaten by Ipswich, Leicester and Sunderland did make a dent. We'd be setting records with Leicester had we not had that September, as in any normal season we'd be pretty comfortable in 1st place by now. We already have 10 more points than we did at this stage when we last got promoted in this league.

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18 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Mentioned this yesterday, they keep chattering about our run only coming against the poor sides.

But we've played and beaten Leeds, WBA, Hull etc in that period, drawn away at Coventry and Norwich. You don't go 25 games unbeaten by having only done the poor sides, it's daft to think that - they're just scrapping around for chinks to focus on.

I also think that this run isn't getting the proper respect it deserves. Commentators etc would be falling over themselves if Leeds or Leicester had been on this run. 

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Just now, Lee On Solent Saint said:

I also think that this run isn't getting the proper respect it deserves. Commentators etc would be falling over themselves if Leeds or Leicester had been on this run. 

All good, but we should have more points

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Just now, AlexLaw76 said:

All good, but we should have more points

I think it's harsh to criticise how many points we have, in most seasons we're top without any hassle. This is just a weird year. We're performing exactly how an auto/champion needs to perform.

We have 10 points more and a better GD at this stage than we did when we last got promoted from this league. Leicester have just set a crazy bar, but it doesn't mean we've been poor or not done enough ourselves.

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Just now, S-Clarke said:

I think it's harsh to criticise how many points we have, in most seasons we're top without any hassle. This is just a weird year. We're performing exactly how an auto/champion needs to perform.

We have 10 points more and a better GD at this stage than we did when we last got promoted from this league. Leicester have just set a crazy bar, but it doesn't mean we've been poor or not done enough ourselves.

It is what Russell Martin said. We should have more points and the run will mean nothing if we do not achieve the goal at the end of the season.

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30 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Trying to extrapolate the rest of the season based upon a period at the start of the season seems as much wishful thinking as looking at the last 10 (or pick a number) of games and extrapolating. Teams will beat teams above them in the table and teams will draw or lose to teams below them in the table.

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35 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Yep absolutely that as well, although Boro were bottom 3 when they beat us (their first win of the season).

Being beaten by Ipswich, Leicester and Sunderland did make a dent. We'd be setting records with Leicester had we not had that September, as in any normal season we'd be pretty comfortable in 1st place by now. We already have 10 more points than we did at this stage when we last got promoted in this league.

Even losing those games the late equalisers by Watford, Huddersfield and Norwich plus drawing at home to Rotherham should have given us an additional 8 points. Win those games and we are right on Leicester’s tails

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1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Interesting stats that are well presented but you know what they say about lies and staistics. For example we have more wins against top 5 sides than Ipswich (theirs came against us in September when we were shit). We have as many wins against top 6 sides as Leeds. Choose your stats and pick your argument. 

Teams at the bottom, fighting relegation are not necessarily pushovers. Eg Good  luck to Leeds and Ipswich if Huddersfield (fourth from bottom) play against them like they did yesterday. 

How many times in the past  have Saints blown it against teams at the bottom? In the Adkins promotion years Rochdale did the double over us. In 1984 we would have been champions (goal difference permitting) if we hadn't lost at home to Notts County who finished bottom. 

If the situation was reversed and Leeds and ourselves had each others fixtures left I am sure that we would have Alex on here telling us that there were no easy games in this division and that Plymouth were world beaters. 😁

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11 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

Interesting stats that are well presented. Nevertheless I am not sure that they mean that much. Teams at the bottom, fighting relegation are not necessarily pushovers. Eg Good  luck to Leeds and Ipswich if Huddersfield (fourth from bottom) play against them like they did yesterday. 

How many times in the past  have Saints blown it against teams at the bottom? In the Adkins promotion years Rochdale did the double over us. In 1984 we would have been champions (goal difference permitting) if we hadn't lost at home to Notts County who finished bottom. 

If the situation was reversed and Leeds and ourselves had each others fixtures left I am sure that we would have Alex on here telling us that there were no easy games in this division and that Plymouth were world beaters. 😁

Didn’t we also lose at home to Stoke in 84 who also went down?

The standard of the league is crap outside of the top 4-5 but everyone has something to play for. Huddersfield proved yesterday that a change of momentum can be only one game away. You’ve got teams fighting to stay up, teams trying to make the play offs and teams going for automatic promotion that’s why it’s such great league. We’ve obviously got 4 tough away games to come but we also play 6 of the top 12 at home all of which will think they can make the play offs. on paper Leeds do have an easier run in on paper but games aren’t won on paper 

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3 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Interesting to see our away form is the second best in the league, I didn’t think it’d be that good. Our home form only third despite us winning 10 in a row

https://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=england2#google_vignette

 

Wow at Leicester's away from. There isn't a huge amount in the home form table (we've played a game less than Leeds and are 5 points behind). The away table is another matter though we don't have the friendliest fixtures left.

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1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

There’s always a certain skew to statistics when looking to analyse and make a prediction. Interestingly it often suits the agenda of the person doing the analysis…

 

interesting stats - but I’m not sure about their argument that their advantage is “massive” because we have to play top sides and they play lower league opposition - their analysis conveniently ignores the fact they’ve (relatively) struggled to pickup all 3 points against lower league opposition so far this season. So I would suggest that means they are far from being “bankers”

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21 minutes ago, coalman said:

Wow at Leicester's away from. There isn't a huge amount in the home form table (we've played a game less than Leeds and are 5 points behind). The away table is another matter though we don't have the friendliest fixtures left.

February is big. We play our game in hand followed by Millwall at home who have been good in the first half at Coventry so far. before that we have two tricky away games at Bristol city and WBA. Leeds are away at Swansea and Plymouth who are both improving and home to Leicester. With the extra game hopefully there will be at least 4 points between us and them come end of the month which would at least give us a bit of breathing space. Lots of games over the next few weeks hopefully our depth of squad can keep our form going like it did yesterday 

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Reading other forums of our rivals and posters are largely saying that we have tough fixtures to come (true) and we have had a run of very easy fixtures (no fixture is "easy" but yes we have played sides in the lower reaches of the table) but you can still only beat what's in front of you. We still have Leeds and Leicester to come and they should be afraid of us as much as we may be afraid of them. We leaked 3 goals yesterday but two of them were deflections (the third being a freak deflection) and besides that, our defence has been tight AND we have Bree to come back if we want to be tighter at left back. Downes will be a loss but I see our subs come on yesterday and shine and I really think we have a strong enough squad now to deal with any injuries or suspensions that fall our way. We've found a way to win games when we're not playing well too which is huge. I don't think we'll go unbeaten for the rest of the season but neither do I think Leeds will either.

I think this promotion race goes all the way. If that means going into the last game against Leeds with "winner takes all"  on offer, so be it. As key as promotion is (or we probably say goodbye to the likes of KWP and THB amongst others), we can't fault how this season has gone otherwise. Even if we don't go up we have the nucleus for a great side next season.

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4 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Reading other forums of our rivals and posters are largely saying that we have tough fixtures to come (true) and we have had a run of very easy fixtures (no fixture is "easy" but yes we have played sides in the lower reaches of the table) but you can still only beat what's in front of you. We still have Leeds and Leicester to come and they should be afraid of us as much as we may be afraid of them. We leaked 3 goals yesterday but two of them were deflections (the third being a freak deflection) and besides that, our defence has been tight AND we have Bree to come back if we want to be tighter at left back. Downes will be a loss but I see our subs come on yesterday and shine and I really think we have a strong enough squad now to deal with any injuries or suspensions that fall our way. We've found a way to win games when we're not playing well too which is huge. I don't think we'll go unbeaten for the rest of the season but neither do I think Leeds will either.

I think this promotion race goes all the way. If that means going into the last game against Leeds with "winner takes all"  on offer, so be it. As key as promotion is (or we probably say goodbye to the likes of KWP and THB amongst others), we can't fault how this season has gone otherwise. Even if we don't go up we have the nucleus for a great side next season.

Slight correction...only one of the goals yesterday was deflected. 

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15 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Even if we don't go up we have the nucleus for a great side next season.

I dunno, failure to go up this season will equate to a bigger turnover than what we saw last summer. The team we have now is only our team for the future if we go up, it's going to be mass change otherwise.

We will potentially be left with a nucleus of Lumley, Stephens, Charles, Smallbone, Fraser, SAA, Dibling, Edozie, Aribo, Bree, Mara etc. Not bad, but no where near the level we have at the moment. I'm sure we'd invest, but we'd pretty much have to start again which will be a shame as this group we have has so much potential to grow into a PL group.

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1 minute ago, S-Clarke said:

I dunno, failure to go up this season will equate to a bigger turnover than what we saw last summer. The team we have now is only our team for the future if we go up, it's going to be mass change otherwise.

We will potentially be left with a nucleus of Lumley, Stephens, Charles, Smallbone, Fraser, SAA, Dibling, Edozie, Aribo, Bree, Mara etc. Not bad, but no where near the level we have at the moment. I'm sure we'd invest, but we'd pretty much have to start again which will be a shame as this group we have has so much potential.

Yep if we don’t go up Downes, Brooks, Rothwell and Hardwood Bellis won’t be here, Armstrong, Adams are out of contract and surely Walker Peters would be snapped up, possibly also Bednarek. Mara, Sully, won’t stick around there was interested in the last two windows in them. Frazer might stay but realistically we’d be looking at 10 players leaving and a whole new group having to get ready for Russball again, only this time they won’t be as good as what’s here. 
 

on a postive note if we do go up we’re keeping Harwood-Bellis wonder if we could keep Brooks too?

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18 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Slight correction...only one of the goals yesterday was deflected. 

Just watched the highlights again - yes it looks like a deflection for their first but on second watch the ball simply swerves. So correction on that one. Their second was a good finish but that 3rd was a freak.

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9 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

I dunno, failure to go up this season will equate to a bigger turnover than what we saw last summer. The team we have now is only our team for the future if we go up, it's going to be mass change otherwise.

We will potentially be left with a nucleus of Lumley, Stephens, Charles, Smallbone, Fraser, SAA, Dibling, Edozie, Aribo, Bree, Mara etc. Not bad, but no where near the level we have at the moment. I'm sure we'd invest, but we'd pretty much have to start again which will be a shame as this group we have has so much potential to grow into a PL group.

I agree that our best shot of doing well in the Prem is to go up this season with what we have and add some "spine" signings (CB/CM/Str and a left back). I still think our attacking options looking at what's left that you've listed would have us doing well next season (but I guess it does depend on who stays and leaves and how we rebuild our defence). 

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Just now, SNSUN said:

I agree that our best shot of doing well in the Prem is to go up this season with what we have and add some "spine" signings (CB/CM/Str and a left back). I still think our attacking options looking at what's left that you've listed would have us doing well next season (but I guess it does depend on who stays and leaves and how we rebuild our defence). 

Least we forget Ross Stewart should be fit by then...................possibly

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