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The Championship Thread - 2023/24

CSA96

By CSA96
in The Saints

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teamsaint

teamsaint

Posted
Posted
  On 27/12/2023 at 16:58, Pamplemousse said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/championship-predictions-season-december-2023-24/

 

Some interesting predictions from Opta's Championship Super Computer. We're still an outside bet for top two but we've got play-offs nailed on basically.

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So they are predicting, on average   89 points for Ipswich , which is just 1.6 points per game from now , the same as WBA have done to date ? 

If somebody offered RM a 90 point target for promotion, he’d take it in a heartbeat, I should think.

I was wondering what realistically would be a good target for us to hit from here. We have 4 very tough away games , (including Leeds last day and who knows how that will affect things ).

13 wins, 6 draws 3 defeats would get us to 93, if my maths is correct.
 

Eric The Red

Eric The Red

Posted
Posted

 Opta have both Ipswich and us picking up 36 points from 22 games. That's something like 10 wins 6 draws and 6 losses. I'll be disappointed if we can't beat that total. Whether we'll get enough points for the top two is obviously very much in doubt  but I'll bet 85 (the figure implied by Opta) won't be enough.

sfc4prem

sfc4prem

Posted
Posted
  On 27/12/2023 at 18:25, Eric The Red said:

 Opta have both Ipswich and us picking up 36 points from 22 games. That's something like 10 wins 6 draws and 6 losses. I'll be disappointed if we can't beat that total. Whether we'll get enough points for the top two is obviously very much in doubt  but I'll bet 85 (the figure implied by Opta) won't be enough.

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Basically, Opta can suck our collective balls.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 3
coalman

coalman

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 14:25, AlexLaw76 said:

Leicester top of this table also.

https://www.capology.com/uk/championship/salaries/

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Joe Aribo - £70K
Jan Bednarek - £60K
Alex McCarthy - £50K
Jack Stephens - £45K
Will Smallbone - £25K
Sekou Mara - £25K
Flynn Downes - £25K
Kyle Walker-Peters - £20K
Gavin Bazunu - £20K

If that's true it's insane. Aribo has played ok recently but no way he's worth 70K. No way is KWP worth 20K. 

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 27/12/2023 at 16:58, Pamplemousse said:

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/12/championship-predictions-season-december-2023-24/

 

Some interesting predictions from Opta's Championship Super Computer. We're still an outside bet for top two but we've got play-offs nailed on basically.

Expand  

Interesting they have Leeds with a higher chance of top 2 than us. Not sure I'd agree but maybe due to the fact that we haven't scored as many. 

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:39, coalman said:

Joe Aribo - £70K
Jan Bednarek - £60K
Alex McCarthy - £50K
Jack Stephens - £45K
Will Smallbone - £25K
Sekou Mara - £25K
Flynn Downes - £25K
Kyle Walker-Peters - £20K
Gavin Bazunu - £20K

If that's true it's insane. Aribo has played ok recently but no way he's worth 70K. No way is KWP worth 20K. 

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Alex McCarthy is the real face palm. 

  • Like 2
coalman

coalman

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:49, hypochondriac said:

Interesting they have Leeds with a higher chance of top 2 than us. Not sure I'd agree but maybe due to the fact that we haven't scored as many. 

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Also interesting that our chance of the top two jumped from 8% to 20% in the course of the last week. I'm more interested in the direction of travel of that percentage than the current value. Every week our chance of making the automatic promotion spots seems to be increasing which correlates with what we're seeing - a team that has good form and has growing momentum. 

goodymatt

goodymatt

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:49, hypochondriac said:

Interesting they have Leeds with a higher chance of top 2 than us. Not sure I'd agree but maybe due to the fact that we haven't scored as many. 

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We've actually scored 1 more than Leeds so far, due to our recent big wins. Its their defence that is giving them the GD edge.

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:52, coalman said:

Also interesting that our chance of the top two jumped from 8% to 20% in the course of the last week. I'm more interested in the direction of travel of that percentage than the current value. Every week our chance of making the automatic promotion spots seems to be increasing which correlates with what we're seeing - a team that has good form and has growing momentum. 

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I think we have had some pretty easy fixtures though. The real test will come against some of these better teams away from home. Avoid defeat or even win in a couple of them and we will increase our chance massively. 

coalman

coalman

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:54, hypochondriac said:

I think we have had some pretty easy fixtures though. The real test will come against some of these better teams away from home. Avoid defeat or even win in a couple of them and we will increase our chance massively. 

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Yeah. That's probably why Leeds are rated more likely than us as we have Leicester and Leeds away at the end of the season

SNSUN

SNSUN

Posted
Posted
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:39, coalman said:

Joe Aribo - £70K
Jan Bednarek - £60K
Alex McCarthy - £50K
Jack Stephens - £45K
Will Smallbone - £25K
Sekou Mara - £25K
Flynn Downes - £25K
Kyle Walker-Peters - £20K
Gavin Bazunu - £20K

If that's true it's insane. Aribo has played ok recently but no way he's worth 70K. No way is KWP worth 20K. 

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Holgate on 70k - might explain why we plan on letting him go back to Everton in January - his contributions have not been worth that. At least Aribo has started to earn his money even if he's still a long way away from being worth 70k. GIVE KWP A NEW CONTRACT FFS!!! Oh and McCarthy - that's just disgusting.

SotonianWill

SotonianWill

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 29/12/2023 at 16:39, coalman said:

Joe Aribo - £70K
Jan Bednarek - £60K
Alex McCarthy - £50K
Jack Stephens - £45K
Will Smallbone - £25K
Sekou Mara - £25K
Flynn Downes - £25K
Kyle Walker-Peters - £20K
Gavin Bazunu - £20K

If that's true it's insane. Aribo has played ok recently but no way he's worth 70K. No way is KWP worth 20K. 

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Considering all players must have had a relegation wage reduction, this doesn't add up. I'm looking mainly at Aribo still being so high (same salary as reported last season) and Smallbone being higher than KWP. 

 

Edit: And if true, who in their right mind sanctioned the Aribo £70,000 a week without a reduction

Edited by SotonianWill
woodsaint1

woodsaint1

Posted
Posted

Looking like another Lampard and to some extent Gerrard (although he did have a good spell with Rangers) in the management stakes. A successful playing career doesnt always translate to successful managerial spells, no matter how many doors are already opened for you.

rooney

rooney

Posted
Posted
  On 03/01/2024 at 00:59, woodsaint1 said:

Looking like another Lampard and to some extent Gerrard (although he did have a good spell with Rangers) in the management stakes. A successful playing career doesnt always translate to successful managerial spells, no matter how many doors are already opened for you.

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Agree, but at least he has had a go more than once rather than take an easy life by being a pundit like J Rednapp.

Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted
  On 03/01/2024 at 07:38, rooney said:

Agree, but at least he has had a go more than once rather than take an easy life by being a pundit like J Rednapp.

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J Rednapp talks clearly and can string a sentence together. Different from mumbling Wayne. 

rooney

rooney

Posted
Posted
  On 03/01/2024 at 08:09, Tamesaint said:

J Rednapp talks clearly and can string a sentence together. Different from mumbling Wayne. 

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yes to an extent but he tries to talk Bow Bells when he was born in Milford-on-Sea.

Badger

Badger

Posted
Posted
  On 05/01/2024 at 21:06, SNSUN said:

There was a can thrown at the front and a can thrown at the back. A Beer Can sandwich if you will.

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Okay you’ve convinced me. It’s a 20-30 point deduction. 
(Sing about that Sheeran, you ginger gimp). 

  • Haha 1
Jack

Jack

Posted
Posted

IMG_6475.thumb.png.a8be1b4e065f36a9ba60772cd3cbbe22.png
 

Maybe potential banana skins for Leicester and Leeds? Cov in decent form and a local game, if not a proper rivalry. You’d expect Ipswich to win as their home record is so good but some pressure on after no wins in 5. 
 

We have to win to pile that pressure on

Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted
  On 11/01/2024 at 08:11, Jack said:

IMG_6475.thumb.png.a8be1b4e065f36a9ba60772cd3cbbe22.png
 

Maybe potential banana skins for Leicester and Leeds? Cov in decent form and a local game, if not a proper rivalry. You’d expect Ipswich to win as their home record is so good but some pressure on after no wins in 5. 
 

We have to win to pile that pressure on

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If we win we'll be above Ipswich at their kick off so pressure will really be on them. Sunderland are capable of a result there, Ipswich should win but wont be easy.

  • Like 1
  • 2 weeks later...
goodymatt

goodymatt

Posted
Posted

IMG_2330.thumb.jpeg.11df143982e239e83819a1c93548353d.jpegIMG_2329.thumb.jpeg.29b3e334bac11a3908f0c8f44f526494.jpeg
 

58 points from 28 league games so far. Just had another look to see how that compares with last season and our last promotion season in the championship. 7 ahead of our last successful promotion and 4 behind ‘Mission Burnley’. If Leicester win tonight they will be on 68 points which is quite ridiculous.

gio1saints

gio1saints

Posted
Posted
  On 22/01/2024 at 09:00, goodymatt said:

IMG_2330.thumb.jpeg.11df143982e239e83819a1c93548353d.jpegIMG_2329.thumb.jpeg.29b3e334bac11a3908f0c8f44f526494.jpeg
 

58 points from 28 league games so far. Just had another look to see how that compares with last season and our last promotion season in the championship. 7 ahead of our last successful promotion and 4 behind ‘Mission Burnley’. If Leicester win tonight they will be on 68 points which is quite ridiculous.

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It is remarkable how many points Leicester have got compared to above. Record breaking. 


And the historical data for getting promoted from this league also makes for interesting reading. For example Pompey are in the top ten most points to get out of this league ( I think with 92) and for me that’s an interesting secondary target for Saints in back of my mind😂😇.

Though be prewarned - by posting “ statistical data” on here guaranteed some misery guts will pipe up with “ those stats are BS and only tell you what happened then - not what is going to happen now”. They failed History at school as well btw. 🤭. 
 

  • Like 1
Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted

Is Leicester and the the top 4s point tally an indication as to how good they are or how poor the league is? 

Honestly, from what i've seen we look good although how we'd do in the premier league playing this way is to be seen, Leicester look good Ipswich and Leeds half decent with some good players but the rest of the league is pretty dire. 

  • Like 1
S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
  On 22/01/2024 at 09:56, Turkish said:

Is Leicester and the the top 4s point tally an indication as to how good they are or how poor the league is? 

Honestly, from what i've seen we look good although how we'd do in the premier league playing this way is to be seen, Leicester look good Ipswich and Leeds half decent with some good players but the rest of the league is pretty dire. 

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I think the quality of the 3 relegated sides has created an unusual gulf season, the gap between us 3 and the playoff chasers is pretty illustrative of that. All 3 of us have been able to keep hold of players who are PL players, as we were all established PL sides with some hefty wages bills/expensive players. Ipswich are the anomaly in all of this, but in most leagues you often get 1 side who do something against the norm.

On the other hand the PL for me is as low quality as it has been since I can remember. The three promoted sides look like dead-rubber, if you stuck Luton and Sheffield United in this league this year I don't think they'd be anywhere near us, Leeds and Leicester.

I have seen people saying that the bottom 3's struggles in the PL this year shows how the gap is widening, it doesn't really for me - if you come up, sell your best players and don't spend any money then there is only ever going to be one outcome. I'd say Leeds, Leicester and ourselves would give the league much more of a crack. The quality for me is much lower than the media try to make out (Palace, Forest, Brentford, Everton, Bournemouth in and around it). Not much to be scared of up there if you are prepared to compete.

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