Jump to content

Championship stay


Stud mark of doom
 Share

Recommended Posts

Good article in the athletic looking at all the 80 odd teams relegated since the prem went to 20 teams. This suggests:

proportion bouncing back in first year - 25pc

second year - 10pc

third year - 5pc

relegated again within three seasons  - 7pc

Remaining in championship beyond three seasons - 53pc

So our experience last time we went down was pretty typical, unfortunately. 

Also said the parachute payments last 3 years and are 55pc in year 1, 45pc in year 2 and 20pc in year 3.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Stud mark of doom said:

Also said the parachute payments last 3 years and are 55pc in year 1, 45pc in year 2 and 20pc in year 3.

 

So basically we need to bounce back in the first 2 years from a financial point of view, thats when we should be at our strongest regarding spending power etc.

Lets hope Rasmus stays well clear of player purchases then !

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1'st/2nd years are critical, fail in those two and you basically become Stoke, Bolton, Derby etc. Our first year down last time was a total waste for everyone, 2nd season we gave it a decent crack, but we failed and that was pretty much the end for us.

I think we should be aiming for it next year though, we should have enough resources to make a real crack of it compared to 2005.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Toussaint said:

I’m sure it will be very exciting being in a promotion chase, but at this point in time a feel very jaded with the premier league and what it has become.

This.

Will be nice to win a few games and hopefully be pushing for promotion. If/when we get back to the prem I hope we have an i clear and sustainable club identity; don't ever want to be on the turgid EPL hanger-ons again.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, S-Clarke said:

1'st/2nd years are critical, fail in those two and you basically become Stoke, Bolton, Derby etc. Our first year down last time was a total waste for everyone, 2nd season we gave it a decent crack, but we failed and that was pretty much the end for us.

I think we should be aiming for it next year though, we should have enough resources to make a real crack of it compared to 2005.

I think last time there were only two years on parachute payments - it was madness that we effectively wrote off the first year, and we pretty much went “win or bust” in the second year. 

I had heard that the parachutes lasted much longer now - but it does still seem that the first two seasons are key, with the first season being by far the best chance generally. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Winnersaint said:

I have a hunch, nothing to base it on, two of the three relegated go straight back up while one languishes all season in the bottom half of the Championship. I'll leave to everyone to speculate.

Someone on another thread said, very aptly, we don’t know if we are  going to be top eight, middle eight or bottom eight. Until we get an idea of next season’s squad and coaching set up we don’t have a clue. Even that doesn’t tell us how we will perform. I think it maybe a bit of a slog.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Stud mark of doom said:

Good article in the athletic looking at all the 80 odd teams relegated since the prem went to 20 teams. This suggests:

proportion bouncing back in first year - 25pc

second year - 10pc

third year - 5pc

relegated again within three seasons  - 7pc

Remaining in championship beyond three seasons - 53pc

So our experience last time we went down was pretty typical, unfortunately. 

Also said the parachute payments last 3 years and are 55pc in year 1, 45pc in year 2 and 20pc in year 3.

 

 

 

 

But, it's also worth noting how badly teams that have been relegated cut adrift in last place like we are now have fared. Only Aston Villa have really come back since.

8 Lowest Points Totals in Premier League History

1. Derby – 11 (2007/08)
2. Sunderland – 15 (2005/06)
3. Huddersfield – 16 (2018/19)
4. Aston Villa – 17 (2015/16)
5. Sunderland – 19 (2002/03)
6. Portsmouth – 19 (2009/10)
7. Norwich – 21 (2019/20)
8. Watford – 24 (1990/00)

The teams that finish 18th usually bounce back first.
 

Edited by Nordic Saint
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nordic Saint said:

But, it's also worth noting how badly teams that have been relegated cut adrift in last place like we are now have fared. Only Aston Villa have really come back since.

8 Lowest Points Totals in Premier League History

1. Derby – 11 (2007/08)
2. Sunderland – 15 (2005/06)
3. Huddersfield – 16 (2018/19)
4. Aston Villa – 17 (2015/16)
5. Sunderland – 19 (2002/03)
6. Portsmouth – 19 (2009/10)
7. Norwich – 21 (2019/20)
8. Watford – 24 (1990/00)

The teams that finish 18th usually bounce back first.
 

This did depress me but, although it sounds like it should be right, it doesn’t seem to correspond with the past experience. From a quick look In that list at least two (Sunderland and Norwich) came straight back up and at least one (Sunderland again) came back after two seasons. That is almost identical - marginally better - than the 25pc/10pc for all relegated clubs.

Looking at all the clubs that bounced back straightaway

9 finished 18th

5 finished 19th

8 finished 20th

so where you finished doesn’t se to impact your ‘bouncebackability’ (as former rocket scientist Iain Dowie would say) much at all.
 

COYR 🙂 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steve Parish today in The Sunday Times,

“Bouncing straight back up to the Premier League after going down is much rarer than people think. The average finishing position of a relegated club in year one is about eighth in the Championship and in year two it’s closer to 11th. For Crystal Palace, historically it has taken an average of ten years to return to the top flight following the drop. Asked last week if managerial changes are about avoiding the drop, I answered that it’s about avoiding even being involved in the relegation fight — because if you’re in the mix in the last three games, at that point, injuries, red cards, refereeing decisions and luck can play a huge part.“

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Steve Parish today in The Sunday Times,

“Bouncing straight back up to the Premier League after going down is much rarer than people think. The average finishing position of a relegated club in year one is about eighth in the Championship and in year two it’s closer to 11th. For Crystal Palace, historically it has taken an average of ten years to return to the top flight following the drop. Asked last week if managerial changes are about avoiding the drop, I answered that it’s about avoiding even being involved in the relegation fight — because if you’re in the mix in the last three games, at that point, injuries, red cards, refereeing decisions and luck can play a huge part.“

I started reading the first line, and then stuck my fingers in my ears, singing  "la la la la I don't want to hear it." But that doesn;t work, when you're reading it off a football forum. Drat! 🙂

Steve Parish, can add an extra "Of course, some teams are just too strong for the Championship, when they go down, such as Southampton." line next season, when he's doom mongering. 🙂

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, ally_uk said:

Premier league has lost it's appeal I lost interest a few seasons ago.

Looking forward to the championship 🙌 

You wait until we’re losing in the Championship too, because it won’t be long. 
 

It’s just like losing in the Premier League, only shitter.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Stud mark of doom said:

This did depress me but, although it sounds like it should be right, it doesn’t seem to correspond with the past experience. From a quick look In that list at least two (Sunderland and Norwich) came straight back up and at least one (Sunderland again) came back after two seasons. That is almost identical - marginally better - than the 25pc/10pc for all relegated clubs.

Looking at all the clubs that bounced back straightaway

9 finished 18th

5 finished 19th

8 finished 20th

so where you finished doesn’t se to impact your ‘bouncebackability’ (as former rocket scientist Iain Dowie would say) much at all.
 

COYR 🙂 

Those who finish 20th have more time to prepare for the season they're about to face.

Given Sports Republic have already said the new structure will be in place "in the coming weeks", then that can translate to results from the beginning of the season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next season will already be better than this if we win more than 6, yes 6, games. Think by the end of September we may possibly be doing better than this complete season. Of course it may go totally wrong but personally I don’t care who we beat as long as we start bloody winning some games.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Nolan said:

Those who finish 20th have more time to prepare for the season they're about to face.

Given Sports Republic have already said the new structure will be in place "in the coming weeks", then that can translate to results from the beginning of the season.

You have a lot of confidence. From what we've seen from their first 16 months of ownership, what makes you think they will go from one of the worst out of 92 to probably one of the top 10 to be able to earn promotion?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it can be a really exciting fun season.. would love to see a 4-2–1-3 formation with two out of sulemana edozie and tella if we can keep him, with Alcaraz playing behind the striker that already has the making of championship porn add in a back from injury livremento into the mix and even if we lose quite a lot of the more senior players this is a basis for a really exciting championship team 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Dragon_man said:

You have a lot of confidence. From what we've seen from their first 16 months of ownership, what makes you think they will go from one of the worst out of 92 to probably one of the top 10 to be able to earn promotion?

You live in a bubble. 

In January in Turkey the Göztepe fans were baying for the heads of Sports republic, too.

Since then they've had one loss in the league.

Sadly they missed out on promotion in the playoffs losing to Bodrumspor, but theyve proven they can get results with a team that has wholesale changes.

We will be either the the most money rich club in the league, or very close to it, and there is absolutely no reason to not believe we are a title contender in the Championship.

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

... with sideways passing.

no hes going........................even yesterday when we won our first corner,the commentators they were bigging up the famous dead ball  delivery scenario just in case we scored .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Dragon_man said:

You have a lot of confidence. From what we've seen from their first 16 months of ownership, what makes you think they will go from one of the worst out of 92 to probably one of the top 10 to be able to earn promotion?

The suggestion that allowing Sport Republic more time to plan might not be a good thing, has bizarrely reminded me of Iain Dowie for the second time on this thread. 
 

I remember an article in one of the broadsheets that said of our target man “time and space merely serve to confuse him”. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, pimpin4rizeal said:

I think it can be a really exciting fun season.. would love to see a 4-2–1-3 formation with two out of sulemana edozie and tella if we can keep him, with Alcaraz playing behind the striker that already has the making of championship porn add in a back from injury livremento into the mix and even if we lose quite a lot of the more senior players this is a basis for a really exciting championship team 

Centre back and centre mid are the key positions we'll need to invest in I reckon

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 28/05/2023 at 11:36, Winnersaint said:

I have a hunch, nothing to base it on, two of the three relegated go straight back up while one languishes all season in the bottom half of the Championship. I'll leave to everyone to speculate.

More than a hunch I suspect. All three relegated teams have cash, players, and Premier League experience, despite looking various shades of crap this year. Leicester have the biggest job as they will lose a lot of their squad at the end of their contracts, but they be stiff competition regardless. Leeds will be strong, I have no doubt on that, Saints will have a lethal attack no matter what combination of our forwards remain. If they can keep at least one of JWP, Lavia, or Alcaraz then the midfield will be at least competitive. Everything depends on the how the manager sets us up and whether there is sufficient discipline and stability. Lots of ifs but I bet the other teams in the league aren't best pleased to see three strong Prem teams come down. Bit like having three Burnleys in the Championship.

None of the teams who are likely to compete in the current Championship look particularly threatening. Those that are, like Coventry and Swansea, will be raided. Impossible to keep a decent team together for more than a season.

Watford, Sunderland, Middlesborough, and Norwich seem to be the main competition but they won't have our resources. Obviously Saints will likely be tanked by Millwall or Preston NE but individual games don't matter. It is all about putting decent runs together.

What we do know is that win the Championship it has taken between 26 and 30 wins, plus a bunch of draws to be promoted. In 2012 Saints won 26 and drew 10 and it has been higher since then. This is going to mean a change of mentality from accepting defeat to expecting to win. A very big ask and probably the biggest challenge both on and off the pitch.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 28/05/2023 at 11:36, Winnersaint said:

I have a hunch, nothing to base it on, two of the three relegated go straight back up while one languishes all season in the bottom half of the Championship. I'll leave to everyone to speculate.

You're correct. Leicester are fucked seven ways to Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...