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The Great Summer Exodus


EBS1980
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11 minutes ago, Saint Fan CaM said:

I don’t want him to stay, but think he wants to stay. Don’t think he’ll want to a be a bit part player warming the bench in a lower half club.

Why do you think we are going to play a player £100k per week, in the Championship?

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48 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Adam Armstrong has committed his future to us 

Jurassic Park Dancing GIF by Spotify

:poundit: 

That's not me wanking it's me trying to rip my cock off in anger at this news. 😁 I'm really not sure how he managed to get so many goals at Blackburn (particularly as he was playing wide a lot of the time) but I saw nothing at Premier League level to suggest he's prolific enough for us even at a lower level. Poor man's Shane Long and nobody should be a poor man's Shane Long. Still, maybe, just maybe, he can find his Blackburn spark. Maybe. I think Mara will stick around so that's 2 striker spots taken. I'm not sure about Onuachu and Adams I suspect will be off but I do hope that Ballard will be in the next manager's thinking. I know not every young prolific striker makes it (Ryan Seager comes to mind) but what is the point of the academy if we don't at least try to integrate our young players, particularly now we'll be playing at a lower level...

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Just now, AlexLaw76 said:

Why do you think we are going to play a player £100k per week, in the Championship?

We won’t - there are relegation clauses in contracts that will cut those wages significantly I don’t doubt. With a long contract at Saints, if he doesn’t want to go, how do you think we will sell him…can we force him out?

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2 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Why do you think we are going to play a player £100k per week, in the Championship?

Why are we paying McCarthy £80k a week to sit on his arse for all but the last 3 games?

Why do we keep picking Elyanoussi?
 

Club is a basket case, dont rule any madness out.

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2 minutes ago, Saint Fan CaM said:

We won’t - there are relegation clauses in contracts that will cut those wages significantly I don’t doubt. With a long contract at Saints, if he doesn’t want to go, how do you think we will sell him…can we force him out?

Already in the public domain, that JwP latest contract does not included such clause.

Mental that a player like JwP, in a Euros year, will decide against playing in the premier league.

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12 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Already in the public domain, that JwP latest contract does not included such clause.

Mental that a player like JwP, in a Euros year, will decide against playing in the premier league.

I thought it was that he doesn’t have a relegation release clause not that he hasn’t got a wage reduction clause, but I might be wrong.

Edited by maysie
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29 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

:poundit: 

That's not me wanking it's me trying to rip my cock off in anger at this news. 😁 I'm really not sure how he managed to get so many goals at Blackburn (particularly as he was playing wide a lot of the time) but I saw nothing at Premier League level to suggest he's prolific enough for us even at a lower level. Poor man's Shane Long and nobody should be a poor man's Shane Long. Still, maybe, just maybe, he can find his Blackburn spark. Maybe. I think Mara will stick around so that's 2 striker spots taken. I'm not sure about Onuachu and Adams I suspect will be off but I do hope that Ballard will be in the next manager's thinking. I know not every young prolific striker makes it (Ryan Seager comes to mind) but what is the point of the academy if we don't at least try to integrate our young players, particularly now we'll be playing at a lower level...

I think it helped he had Harvey Elliot spotting and playing his runs instead of Stevie wonder visionary playmakers we have.

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As far as I'm concerned anyone who wants to commit has the slate wiped clean, the last two or three years has been an absolute aberration. AA looked ok when we first got him, like almost  everyone else he has gone backwards with us.

New manager, new league, fresh start.

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49 minutes ago, Toussaint said:

As far as I'm concerned anyone who wants to commit has the slate wiped clean, the last two or three years has been an absolute aberration. AA looked ok when we first got him, like almost  everyone else he has gone backwards with us.

New manager, new league, fresh start.

You’re right actually. I saw the Everton game on his debut and he looked a handful, took his goal well. But bes really regressed I’m sure in part down to our strikers being stoppers rather than attackers. I’m not sure if he’ll get back to his Blackburn form, how many players are out of form for a couple of years and then suddenly burst back. Be interesting for sure

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1 minute ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

Wonder if Brentford will take a punt on Adams? Relatively cheap outlay on a player until Toney is back from his suspension.

Maybe they'll take a punt on Onuachu. Aren't Brentford a metric kinda club too. Cuf price deal.. £10Million.

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3 hours ago, Saint Matty 76 said:

What is it then? Literally everybody has reported that the contract doesn't have a relegation clause. 

See my post above. Difference between a relegation release clause and a relegation wage decrease clause.

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4 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

It is in the public domain. Whether it is accurate not is another matter 

It is in the public domain that he doesn’t have a relegation release clause, not that he doesn’t have a wage reduction.

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Just now, ErwinK1961 said:

It is in the public domain that he doesn’t have a relegation release clause, not that he doesn’t have a wage reduction.

Thanks, that’s what I was trying to say earlier

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On 17/05/2023 at 13:35, AlexLaw76 said:

It is in the public domain. Whether it is accurate not is another matter 

He doesn't have a release clause for transfers. But there has been nothing regarding him having a relegation wage clause.

Conversely its been stated by pet journos that the squad does has relegation wage clauses.

So the only conclusion to make is that he'll be having the same wage reduction as other players (40%), but that he'll retain the clause re matching highest earners. 

Edited by Saint86
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4 hours ago, SaintsFan86 said:

Maybe they'll take a punt on Onuachu. Aren't Brentford a metric kinda club too. Cut price deal.. £10Million.

anyone who offers that kind of money for him are either stupid or fucking stupid.

 

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I'd let Jwp , Bednarek, Kwp ,McCarthy, Orsic, Abk , Salisu , Lavia,  Elyanoussiand Bazunu all go if we get the right money for them . That should make around 150m imo probably more then chuck a big lump at a Potter or Rodgers type manager and give them the rest to spend on players . That should hopefully see us in contention.

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34 minutes ago, Simo is back said:

I'd let Jwp , Bednarek, Kwp ,McCarthy, Orsic, Abk , Salisu , Lavia,  Elyanoussiand Bazunu all go if we get the right money for them . That should make around 150m imo probably more then chuck a big lump at a Potter or Rodgers type manager and give them the rest to spend on players . That should hopefully see us in contention.

You're at least £50m too optimistic imo. 

 

20 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Already in the public domain, that JwP latest contract does not included such clause.

Mental that a player like JwP, in a Euros year, will decide against playing in the premier league.

I've got no idea what's in JwP contract, but I have been told by someone who knows things that he was told ages ago that he could go this summer. For me though it's where he'll go and be a starter. I honestly can't see beyond West Ham if Rice goes, maybe Newcastle, perhaps Forest but he'd be scraping the barrel there. I don't think he'd play regularly anywhere else. I gather that he's settled in Otterbourne, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him here at the start of the season purely because I can't see where he'd actually go. 

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27 minutes ago, egg said:

You're at least £50m too optimistic imo. 

 

I've got no idea what's in JwP contract, but I have been told by someone who knows things that he was told ages ago that he could go this summer. For me though it's where he'll go and be a starter. I honestly can't see beyond West Ham if Rice goes, maybe Newcastle, perhaps Forest but he'd be scraping the barrel there. I don't think he'd play regularly anywhere else. I gather that he's settled in Otterbourne, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him here at the start of the season purely because I can't see where he'd actually go. 

His house has been on the market for weeks. So not sure about how “settled “ he is

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20 minutes ago, Chewy said:

His house has been on the market for weeks. So not sure about how “settled “ he is

Interesting, wasn't aware of that. Doesn't suggest a willingness to relocate to some northern town though. 

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Not likely to keep any of the half decent players so maybe incorporate some form of BOGOF arrangement to cushion the blow.

Remember how in the shops for a few pence more the product you wanted sometimes came with a big useless piece of crap taped to it in order to make you feel like you are getting something special ? We just need to do the same.

Want JWP ? Then you need to take Ely as well.

Fancy Lavia ? Then ,i am afraid the goal scoring phenomenon that is Alan Armstrong comes as well.

Need KWP ? Going to have to take a piece of deadwood as well,sorry.

 

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1 hour ago, Noodles34 said:

Latest ITK rumour is that Lavia is going to Utd. We’re getting Phil Jones ans the club are going to do all they can to keep JWP

Which is obviously a load of absolute shite because Phil Jones can't even train, let alone play.

ITK must be a low bar in this case.

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1 hour ago, Noodles34 said:

Latest ITK rumour is that Lavia is going to Utd. We’re getting Phil Jones ans the club are going to do all they can to keep JWP

I take it phil jones isn’t part of a swap deal considering he’s out of contract and free this summer. Though saying that I wouldn’t put it past our board to chalk a few million off lavia despite this being the case, twats. 

Edited by SotonianWill
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Lavia will likely go for £40-50m and lots of CL club competition before City’s buyback kicked in 2024.

JWP harder to say but ought to be £35-40m

Salisu apparently has £15m release clause, W Ham want him, Everton if they stay up

KWP in demand, Villa and Spurs said to be interested (Levy rued selling him for £12m), possibly Chelsea and Man U. If so, could push price to £25-30m

Alcaraz - hope he doesn’t go but Brighton, AC Milan, Benfica apparently keen

Tella - should be looking for £20m but would be happy to keep him if we can

ABK - top six would be interested to ration his games and let his body settle down next couple of seasons. Rumoured Saints looking for £20-25m.

Perraud seemingly going - get the £11m back possibly? If Martin could bring Ryan Manning with him that’s cash to re-invest elsewhere in the squad’s spine.

Che - Brentford option to replace Toney? £15m say. 

McCarthy might even raise small fee + losing wages, and Theo/Ely OOC

Martin should have a very good budget for that level to work with.

 

Edited by saint1977
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Call me cynical, but all this talk of £150m sales meaning good budgets for this level…

I suspect the first £140m goes to recouping this season’s losses.

the next £50m or so to cover the delta in loss of tv income vs parachute payment receipts.

I don’t see us having a mega budget for players next season - more like make do with a lot of this squads dross and three or four key purchases.

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1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

Call me cynical, but all this talk of £150m sales meaning good budgets for this level…

I suspect the first £140m goes to recouping this season’s losses.

the next £50m or so to cover the delta in loss of tv income vs parachute payment receipts.

I don’t see us having a mega budget for players next season - more like make do with a lot of this squads dross and three or four key purchases.

I guess it depends how much of a risk Dragan wants to take..

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I'm with Jimbo's comments above.

I know Sports Republic have said there will be funds made available etc., etc., but I have a view that seriously wealthy business folks do not make poor, costly business decisions.

Dragan has invested somewhere near £250m? Is that right? £100m to purchase the club and another £150m ish on player purchases.

If I were Dragan I would be looking at the parachute payments to offset income loss, versus the inflated cost structure we have as a newly relegated team (whether that is in redundancy payments for rank and file staff, or offsetting player contracts that even at 60% of their premier league value are still inflated for Championship football). And I would look at player sales revenue to return some of my investment.

That revenue, as people have speculated on this thread, could be anything from £125m-£200m.

Dragan may choose to trouser all of it, or at least the majority of it.

Paying £250m and owning a Championship club which is worth considerably less than £250m, is poor business.

But owning a Championship club that has cost you £100m, and still has a reasonable asset value, is looking a whole heap healthier.

We're all speculating how much we will get from player sales this summer and how much that allows us to spend, but maybe we're just going to get a £25m splurge on a few League One or unfancied Championship players.

 

Edited by ooh it's a corner
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33 minutes ago, ooh it's a corner said:

I'm with Jimbo's comments above.

I know Sports Republic have said there will be funds made available etc., etc., but I have a view that seriously wealthy business folks do not make poor, costly business decisions.

Dragan has invested somewhere near £250m? Is that right? £100m to purchase the club and another £150m ish on player purchases.

If I were Dragan I would be looking at the parachute payments to offset income loss, versus the inflated cost structure we have as a newly relegated team (whether that is in redundancy payments for rank and file staff, or offsetting player contracts that even at 60% of their premier league value are still inflated for Championship football). And I would look at player sales revenue to return some of my investment.

That revenue, as people have speculated on this thread, could be anything from £125m-£200m.

Dragan may choose to trouser all of it, or at least the majority of it.

Paying £250m and owning a Championship club which is worth considerably less than £250m, is poor business.

But owning a Championship club that has cost you £100m, and still has a reasonable asset value, is looking a whole heap healthier.

We're all speculating how much we will get from player sales this summer and how much that allows us to spend, but maybe we're just going to get a £25m splurge on a few League One or unfancied Championship players.

 

We will be circa £100m worse off for not being in the PL next season due to parachute payments and commercial drop off. I reckon Lavia and JWP make up that hole, even then we would have a fair budget given the other expected sales and the owners reportedly willing to finance a quick return.

I cannot see a situation where we only spend £25m rebuilding almost an entire first 11. We need to be a PL club for the multi club strategy to work for SR, surely? I do see where you’re coming from with the investment value angle but SR’s plan clearly wasn’t to spend £100m net on Saints and just own a championship football club.

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2 hours ago, goodymatt said:

We will be circa £100m worse off for not being in the PL next season due to parachute payments and commercial drop off. I reckon Lavia and JWP make up that hole, even then we would have a fair budget given the other expected sales and the owners reportedly willing to finance a quick return.

I cannot see a situation where we only spend £25m rebuilding almost an entire first 11. We need to be a PL club for the multi club strategy to work for SR, surely? I do see where you’re coming from with the investment value angle but SR’s plan clearly wasn’t to spend £100m net on Saints and just own a championship football club.

Don’t forget Lavia’s fee will be 20pc less as that goes to City. Realistically those two will  be c £70-80m. Even with the 40pc cut our bloated squad will carry a huge wage bill. Then there is the c £7m interest on that £75m loan we’re still carrying, and how much are we still paying off Ralph/Jones/staff ?. Add all that to the £250m net spend from Dragon.

I would have thought the transfer budget will be anything made above £100m to service some of that, certainly that would be the sensible move. You’d hope we would find another £75m from Salisu / ABK / Osric / Adams / Perraud / Tella giving a budget of c £50m to rebuild what would be a weak squad once all those left. As you say SR will realise the need to invest to mount a promotion challenge but if we do this right we can remove debt, invest, and have a squad that aligns to Martins needs. (*doing it right hasn’t been SR strong point so far)

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2 hours ago, Golac's Cunning Stunts said:

Toney has scored 18 goals this season I think, so Che could maybe replace 5 of those

Brentford I’d have thought would mix and match one permanent affordable striker (Che only has a year left on his contract) with a quality loan one, like Broja was for us. That will tie them over with Toney perhaps match fit March onwards. 

In terms of the squad after all of the dozens of departures, I hope SR go quality over quantity this time and some of the u18s need opportunities that they wouldn’t have got yet at PL level unless they were a Shaw or Rooney type exception. Good experienced keeper for that level needed as an essential.

Edited by saint1977
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3 hours ago, goodymatt said:

We will be circa £100m worse off for not being in the PL next season due to parachute payments and commercial drop off. I reckon Lavia and JWP make up that hole, even then we would have a fair budget given the other expected sales and the owners reportedly willing to finance a quick return.

 

What planet are you on? 
 

You’re overestimating by £30-40m. We’re not a premier league club any more, we can’t just demand whatever we want because “we don’t need to sell them” these players are easy pickings, they won’t go for peanuts but they won’t be getting the sort of fees people are expecting. 

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1 hour ago, Hodgey said:

Don’t forget Lavia’s fee will be 20pc less as that goes to City. Realistically those two will  be c £70-80m. Even with the 40pc cut our bloated squad will carry a huge wage bill. Then there is the c £7m interest on that £75m loan we’re still carrying, and how much are we still paying off Ralph/Jones/staff ?. Add all that to the £250m net spend from Dragon.

I would have thought the transfer budget will be anything made above £100m to service some of that, certainly that would be the sensible move. You’d hope we would find another £75m from Salisu / ABK / Osric / Adams / Perraud / Tella giving a budget of c £50m to rebuild what would be a weak squad once all those left. As you say SR will realise the need to invest to mount a promotion challenge but if we do this right we can remove debt, invest, and have a squad that aligns to Martins needs. (*doing it right hasn’t been SR strong point so far)

We’ll likely still owe substantial instalments on Orsic, ABK, Perraud , Salisu and others so those can be knocked off any transfer fee we receive.

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5 hours ago, RedArmy said:

What planet are you on? 
 

You’re overestimating by £30-40m. We’re not a premier league club any more, we can’t just demand whatever we want because “we don’t need to sell them” these players are easy pickings, they won’t go for peanuts but they won’t be getting the sort of fees people are expecting. 

Lavia is wanted by some big teams, I think his fee will be what we expect. Perhaps Prowsey will go for less than we want as he’s worth more to us than he’s really worth on the market. I do think we will easily sell £150m worth of players this window. The next question is how much will SR invest.

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Burnley spent around £30m across both windows to run away with the league. Balanced out by the sales of Pope, Collins, McNeil and Cornet for around £70m.

They also made use of the loan market, bringing in six players.

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12 minutes ago, HarvSFC said:

Burnley spent around £30m across both windows to run away with the league. Balanced out by the sales of Pope, Collins, McNeil and Cornet for around £70m.

They also made use of the loan market, bringing in six players.

Impressive, maybe we don’t need to spend big!

I think with the teams coming down with us it’s going to be a tough challenge to win the league. Won’t see Everton/Leeds/Leicester finishing mid table like Norwich and Watford. We will also sell more players than Burnley did.

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