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The 2024 General Election - July 4th


sadoldgit
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1 minute ago, Fan The Flames said:

Old Nige will be banging the PR drum for all it's worth and that FPTP is a system that protects the Westminster elite, against the will of ordinary people blah blah blah

His party have destroyed the Tory’s this time round. Good on him for that and worth banging the drum.

was not that long ago plenty (on here) were banging the drum that the tories were in power with just 30-odd % of the national vote…..

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1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

His party have destroyed the Tory’s this time round. Good on him for that and worth banging the drum.

was not that long ago plenty (on here) were banging the drum that the tories were in power with just 30-odd % of the national vote…..

I wonder if the "right wing" will now launch massive protests against Keir Starmer attacking police whilst screaming "not my prime minister"?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

His party have destroyed the Tory’s this time round. Good on him for that and worth banging the drum.

was not that long ago plenty (on here) were banging the drum that the tories were in power with just 30-odd % of the national vote…..

And I will happily agree that less than40% of the vote should not give a majority of 170 .

Edited by badgerx16
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The vote share for what it's worth. No real gain for labour or the libs in the popular vote. The defection of voters from tory to reform seems to have been a game changer. 

Screenshot_2024-07-05-07-39-25-555_com.android.chrome.jpg

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9 minutes ago, egg said:

The vote share for what it's worth. No real gain for labour or the libs in the popular vote. The defection of voters from tory to reform seems to have been a game changer. 

Screenshot_2024-07-05-07-39-25-555_com.android.chrome.jpg

Starmer about as popular as Corbyn then? :)

 

Screenshot_20240705-075144.png

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18 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

His party have destroyed the Tory’s this time round. Good on him for that and worth banging the drum.

was not that long ago plenty (on here) were banging the drum that the tories were in power with just 30-odd % of the national vote…..

I don't disagree. He likes single issues and this will be his, as he sees it as an important part of his road map.

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3 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

I don't disagree. He likes single issues and this will be his, as he sees it as an important part of his road map.

We’ve already held a referendum on Brexit and we need to uphold the vote of the British people because we can’t possibly hold another referendum despite views possibly changing blah blah blah.

Of course, this opinion will be the complete opposite from Reform voters for PR, who will scream for it despite us already having a referendum on it. 

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13 minutes ago, trousers said:

Starmer about as popular as Corbyn then? :)

 

Screenshot_20240705-075144.png

The numbers show that it's more like the tories losing the public confidence than labour or the libs gaining it. Anyways, we needed that self serving shit show gone, and thank god they have. 

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19 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

I don't disagree. He likes single issues and this will be his, as he sees it as an important part of his road map.

If Farage makes PR happen then it can only be a good thing. It's fantastic that the Tories are out but the vote share shows how fucked our electoral system is.

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For all the “brave new worlders“ out there, the reality is that this election was all about electing who people hated least, rather than wanted most.

The country is still on the financial skids following the pandemic, boats will still cross the channel, the world is still a increasingly dangerous place, and England will still probably play insipid football on Saturday.

I’m off down the Winchester until this all blows over.

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Pro : Starmer has won, the Tories have imploded

Con : the vote share is hardly an endorsement

Pro : Starmer has enough MPs to be able to ignore the headbangers on the left

Con : He is stimied by the shitshow he has inherited from Sunak and Truss

Pro : We should have a stable and consistent Government for the full term

Con : With a majority of 170 how can the Government be held to account by the opposition

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14 minutes ago, Elmore Saint said:

For all the “brave new worlders“ out there, the reality is that this election was all about electing who people hated least, rather than wanted most.

The country is still on the financial skids following the pandemic, boats will still cross the channel, the world is still a increasingly dangerous place, and England will still probably play insipid football on Saturday.

I’m off down the Winchester until this all blows over.

See you in 10 years or so. 

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1 hour ago, Elmore Saint said:

That’s plainly bollocks, as 2015 would have seen a Con/UKIP coalition to get to a majority.

FPTP does skew, but allows for less beige governance - comme ci, comme ça….

And no Brexit

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6 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Pro : Starmer has won, the Tories have imploded

Con : the vote share is hardly an endorsement

Pro : Starmer has enough MPs to be able to ignore the headbangers on the left

Con : He is stimied by the shitshow he has inherited from Sunak and Truss

Pro : We should have a stable and consistent Government for the full term

Con : With a majority of 170 how can the Government be held to account by the opposition

Good summary, and yep, labour have little wriggle room. I'm sure we'll see massive cuts in taxable pension contributions and tax thereon saving billions, the reduction in the tax free allowance on pension lump sums at 55,  possibly the end of ISA's, massive reform in council tax with some kind of re banding as a minimum. There are definitely things they can work with if they want to, but they'll play into reforms hands so it'll be an interesting ride. 

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The excitement about Reform is understandable but they will always benefit from protest votes but very unlikely to get a wider base. Only so many idiots can be taken in. Farage and co cannot run the economy and most people can see the nasty side to them. Just look at some of the cunts they had on the stage when results were called. The vile side of uncaring Tories which most people will loathe and see through. Angry thick racists excepted.

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1 hour ago, Elmore Saint said:

That’s plainly bollocks, as 2015 would have seen a Con/UKIP coalition to get to a majority.

That's bollocks, add their votes together and they would only have got 49.4% of the vote.

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1 minute ago, whelk said:

The excitement about Reform is understandable but they will always benefit from protest votes but very unlikely to get a wider base. Only so many idiots can be taken in. Farage and co cannot run the economy and most people can see the nasty side to them. Just look at some of the cunts they had on the stage when results were called. The vile side of uncaring Tories which most people will loathe and see through. Angry thick racists excepted.

I think it depends on how labour do and the feeling towards them in 2029. If punters feel then that we need change, still don't trust the tories, and our nige carries on his persuasive to the gullible sales pitch, you never know. The sheer number of votes they've gained is staggering. 

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I'm going to be unpopular again and say I don't have a problem with FPTP. I want a government to rule the country for the next five years, I don't want some broad spectrum commitee, trying to please everyone. Surely this election and the last prove just how easily your party can be wiped out by being a bit sh*t or irrelevant. I don't know or care how every other democracy in the world works but I'm quite happy with ours. 

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17 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I'm going to be unpopular again and say I don't have a problem with FPTP. I want a government to rule the country for the next five years, I don't want some broad spectrum commitee, trying to please everyone. Surely this election and the last prove just how easily your party can be wiped out by being a bit sh*t or irrelevant. I don't know or care how every other democracy in the world works but I'm quite happy with ours. 

I don’t know about being unpopular. But repeatedly banging the drum for FPTP while simultaneously admitting you haven’t got the slightest clue about PR (let alone how it could feasibly actually be better) doesn’t suggest you’re on top of your brief. Fair enough if you’re happy with it in your own mind, but “I’m happy with it because…….reasons” isn’t a brilliant sell.

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Happy with that. The Tories got the kicking they so richly deserved. Many of the odious MPs have been kicked out but sadly some still remain.

Delighted for the LibDems. Good to see them as a parliamentary force again. Pleased too for the Greens.

Gutted that they changed the boundaries here and the constituency we were moved from booted out Tory Damian Collins. We have been moved to a safer Tory seat and they held on. Good to see Ashford kick out Damian Green and that has gone red too.

Odd to hear many say that the massive majority is not a good thing when it apparently was ok when the Tories had one. As said earlier, it makes Starmer’s life easier in terms of internal issues.

It was so good to see Liz Truss get the sack, along with Rees-Mogg.

For the Tories this was text book how not to get yourselves re-elected. With their record it was no surprise but what was a surprise is how bad their campaign was. Ok, Sunak was never going to be the strongest leader but the missteps from the announcement of the election in the pouring rain onwards were amateurish and incompetent, just like the way they had governed. 

Starmer has done what he needed to do. Hopefully, now that he has the keys to no 10, he will cast off the Gareth Southgate approach and we will see a bolder, more radical approach to repairing the damage of the last 14 years.

Happy days 🥳🥂🍾
 

 

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2 hours ago, Elmore Saint said:

Interesting to see that if we’d adopted Proportional Representation in 2011 we’d be looking at Reform on 90 odd seats, Labour on just over 200 and the Liberals about where they are.

Wonder if the clamor for it still exists in Liberal circles?

No we wouldn’t. You cannot project today’s results onto a different voting system. With FPTP voters can afford a protest vote knowing that it will most probably not change the result.

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2 minutes ago, The Kraken said:

I don’t know about being unpopular. But repeatedly banging the drum for FPTP while simultaneously admitting you haven’t got the slightest clue about PR (let alone how it could feasibly actually be better) doesn’t suggest you’re on top of your brief. Fair enough if you’re happy with it in your own mind, but “I’m happy with it because…….reasons” isn’t a brilliant sell.

Which PR system do people want? I've never claimed to have any answers but the people complaining haven't put forward a credible proposal either. The Libs, with the most to gain from this, went all in on some useless AV system when they got a whiff of power in 2010 and it fell flat on it's face. We have a system where every constituency has a local MP who represents them and most elections produce a majority for somebody to form a government.

I didn't say I'm happy because "reasons". I've literally given you my reasons. I want a certain level of volatility, so that anyone who underperforms - such as Sunak and Corbyn - suffers a significant loss in parliament. I want somebody in charge, with a significant level of authority. Those are my 'reasons'.

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1 minute ago, Lighthouse said:

Which PR system do people want? I've never claimed to have any answers but the people complaining haven't put forward a credible proposal either. The Libs, with the most to gain from this, went all in on some useless AV system when they got a whiff of power in 2010 and it fell flat on it's face. We have a system where every constituency has a local MP who represents them and most elections produce a majority for somebody to form a government.

I didn't say I'm happy because "reasons". I've literally given you my reasons. I want a certain level of volatility, so that anyone who underperforms - such as Sunak and Corbyn - suffers a significant loss in parliament. I want somebody in charge, with a significant level of authority. Those are my 'reasons'.

I don’t think a majority want it. That’s my feeling anyway. The alternate vote was an absolutely shambles that the LDs messed up but the overwhelming verdict was for FPTP. I think a form of PR would be fairer but it’s moot, I don’t think it would get anywhere, IMO the country is too entrenched with FPTP. Plus Labour and the Conservatives definitely don’t want it.  A defence of “if you’re so shit you get voted out” is pretty limited to me, I’d rather a government didn’t get the point of vastly underperforming and had cross party checks and balances every day so we don’t get to a point where we are, a party eventually evicted for being utterly shit for years.

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17 minutes ago, The Kraken said:

I don’t think a majority want it. That’s my feeling anyway. The alternate vote was an absolutely shambles that the LDs messed up but the overwhelming verdict was for FPTP. I think a form of PR would be fairer but it’s moot, I don’t think it would get anywhere, IMO the country is too entrenched with FPTP. Plus Labour and the Conservatives definitely don’t want it.  A defence of “if you’re so shit you get voted out” is pretty limited to me, I’d rather a government didn’t get the point of vastly underperforming and had cross party checks and balances every day so we don’t get to a point where we are, a party eventually evicted for being utterly shit for years.

PR on its own would generate endless deadlock, so no dice. However, this election like no other is exposing FPTP as skewed in the other direction. IIRC, Didn't the old EU elections have some constituency component (hence personal accountability) and some PR list component based on a wider region?

A blended approach is possibly worth a look at as it would ensure that every vote has more potential to be recognised in the outcome and smaller parties get represented.

FPTP works well where you have a localised base. Reforms problem is that they are polling well above the noise as a share of the vote, but are more geographically dispersed. 

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One of last night's outcomes was the hammering of the SNP. While there's no shortage of reasons for that, part of it is how their own Shortbread Parliament runs a PR system.

It runs a combination of constituency and regional seats. You get fptp for the constituency, and or with the regional, with them offset against each other.

What happened in practice was that, partly to keep other parties out, the greens (not to be confused with the greens in the rest of the UK) got a lot of regional votes.

They found themselves as kingmakers, and drove their policies through. They were as unsuccessful as the SNPs, but the agreement had the cart in front of the horse for years.

Elsewhere, there are rounds of voting, allowing coalitions to form and block others, or endless hung parliaments formed of squabbling minority parties.

PR was sold to my year at school as being the fairest system. A bit older, I don't see much fair about having my vote up for trade at every decision to get it through, often beholden to far less popular groups.

I'm not disappointed to see Labour having a clear mandate to make its mark, free for dilution or interference. They can be judged entirely on their own actions.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Con : the vote share is hardly an endorsement

Pro : Starmer has enough MPs to be able to ignore the headbangers on the left

Con : With a majority of 170 how can the Government be held to account by the opposition

80% of the country didn’t vote for him. 

And he couldn’t care less if he has enough MPs or there’s an opposition - his allegiance is to Davos not Westminster 

 

Edited by Raging Bull
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3 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Turnout at 60% is the second lowest since 1918, a fraction above Blair in 2001.

A lot of Tory voters just do not turn out rather than voting for anyone else. You will notice this pretty much every time Labour do not get in. This with reform taking votes from the Tories and the fact that the country has been run so badly and many many many broken promises. Labour did not have to do to much. Saying this they need to hit the ground running, it’s going to be interesting for sure. 

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Just now, Baird of the land said:

I'd vastly prefer PR to these sort of results. Not least because your far less likely to have these landslides. Anemic oppositions and massive majorities don't tend to lead to good government in my eyes.

You prefer inertia?

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3 hours ago, LGTL said:

We’ve already held a referendum on Brexit and we need to uphold the vote of the British people because we can’t possibly hold another referendum despite views possibly changing blah blah blah.

Of course, this opinion will be the complete opposite from Reform voters for PR, who will scream for it despite us already having a referendum on it. 

Interesting how Nige didn't mention it while gaming the system by pulling 300 MP's from key seats to help Boris achieve a Majority.

I've backed electoral reform for years and voted in favour of it last time we got a say, it' just funny to see the right wing parites and media suddenly moaning now the shoe is on the other foot!

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Posted (edited)

This is a great outcome as me and my wife work in the public sector. I only joined the NHS in 2020 and all I have heard is that things are better in the public sector under a Labour government. My wife is a secondary teacher and 2010 she had only been teaching for 2 years, so never experienced much under a Labour government. But things at the NHS and education have never been as bad as they are now, and hearing the story’s from people that have been in the public sector for 20/25 years, that we have played down do ring true. Ok it’s never going to perfect but Labour will support the public sector more than the Tory’s ever will. 

They are in now by whatever means, and have a chance to make a difference. But you will never ever please everyone or anyone 100%

Edited by Dr Who?
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