The 2024 General Election - July 4th

[Fan The Flames]

19 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

My prediction - enough Sweaties will vote SNP (literally, just because!) which will return a hung parliament.

The Lib Dems will then become king maker and throw their hat in with Labour. 

A kingmaker should back the largest minority party, if this was the tories this time I can't see them backing them. So I think you're right they will back Labour whatever happens.

The vote could be tight, Labour have a habit of losing elections they should win, but the tories are so fucked up, Labour must be in with a chance this time.

It feels like a good conference for Labour and a very average one for the tories, happy days.

[Weston Super Saint]

48 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

A kingmaker should back the largest minority party, if this was the tories this time I can't see them backing them. So I think you're right they will back Labour whatever happens.

The vote could be tight, Labour have a habit of losing elections they should win, but the tories are so fucked up, Labour must be in with a chance this time.

It feels like a good conference for Labour and a very average one for the tories, happy days.

I'm sure I heard a peice on the radio last week where the LDs said they would not work with the Tories again... 

[Fan The Flames]

9 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I'm sure I heard a peice on the radio last week where the LDs said they would not work with the Tories again... 

I can quite believe it, the posh boys fucked them over last time. They are also probably reading the room.

I still don't think it was a mistake last time, but they could have negotiated a better position. They appeared to be too desperate in get into power, a kingmaker should make the other party desperate for their support.

[Holmes_and_Watson]

2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I'm sure I heard a peice on the radio last week where the LDs said they would not work with the Tories again... 

That undermines their negotiating position.

LDs: If you don't give us what we want, we'll back the Tories.

Labour: No you won't because you've told all your voters, that's something you'd not do.

LDs: Sod. Where do we sign off on all the Labour plans?

[Weston Super Saint]

5 minutes ago, Holmes_and_Watson said:

That undermines their negotiating position.

LDs: If you don't give us what we want, we'll back the Tories.

Labour: No you won't because you've told all your voters, that's something you'd not do.

LDs: Sod. Where do we sign off on all the Labour plans?

Isn't the alternative if no party gains a majority, that the ruling party stays in power?

That seems like a fairly big bargaining chip if so....

[Sheaf Saint]

4 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Isn't the alternative if no party gains a majority, that the ruling party stays in power?

That seems like a fairly big bargaining chip if so....

Is it? I thought the party with the largest vote share could attempt to form a minority government.

[Holmes_and_Watson]

1 minute ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Isn't the alternative if no party gains a majority, that the ruling party stays in power?

That seems like a fairly big bargaining chip if so....

Better yet for the LDs would be to not get drawn into sweeping, limiting statements. Also to have learned from their negotiating failures of last time, rather than crying about it and saying they won't play with one kid, as they were mean to them last time.

I'd want them to assess their position along policy lines now, rather than because they negotiated a bad deal years ago.

[Weston Super Saint]

6 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Is it? I thought the party with the largest vote share could attempt to form a minority government.

Wouldn't that be a majority?

 

[Sheaf Saint]

11 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Wouldn't that be a majority?

 

No, it would be a party with the highest number of seats but still less than 50%, hence a minority.

[CB Fry]

38 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Isn't the alternative if no party gains a majority, that the ruling party stays in power?

That sounds more like winner stays on at the pub snooker table.

The new parliament is formed by the seats won, there's no "ruling party" because parliament is dissolved before the election.

There's lots of routes, but the main principle is the party with the most seats has first go at forming a government regardless of whether they have a majority.

Can't see it being anyone but Labour from here.

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, CB Fry said:

That sounds more like winner stays on at the pub snooker table.

The new parliament is formed by the seats won, there's no "ruling party" because parliament is dissolved before the election.

There's lots of routes, but the main principle is the party with the most seats has first go at forming a government regardless of whether they have a majority.

Can't see it being anyone but Labour from here.

They should copy next goal wins model. Whatever the voting is when they get to the end the winner is whatever way the last vote goes.

[badgerx16]

51 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Is it? I thought the party with the largest vote share could attempt to form a minority government.

Essentially correct; the Privy Council would advise the King as to who might be best able to form a functioning Government, ie if there is a pre-election agreement between 2 parties.. If this is not clear the incumbent PM can be asked to try to form a new minority Government, as happened with Ted Heath in 1974; he could not as the Ulster Unionist MPs refused to work with him, so Harold Wilson formed a Labour minority Government.

[badgerx16]

57 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Wouldn't that be a majority?

 

No Government since WW1 has had a majority share of the vote. Most Governments have been based around a 40% vote share. Vote share in no way equates to proportion of seats in the HoC.

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

That sounds more like winner stays on at the pub snooker table.

 

Indeed.  But also Parliamentary rules it would seem....

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

Quote

What happens in a hung Parliament?

The rules and conventions for forming a new government after a general election are set out in chapter two of the Cabinet Manual.

• Cabinet Manual (Gov.UK)

If no party has a majority, is there no Government?

When there is no majority, the Prime Minister in power before the general election stays in power and is given the first chance to create a government. They may decide:

• to negotiate with another party or parties to build a coalition
• to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament
• to resign, usually after failing to negotiate a coalition, and recommend that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to form a government. They may decide to form a coalition or govern as a minority government.

Also, 2.12 here....

 

[CB Fry]

11 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Indeed.  But also Parliamentary rules it would seem....

https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/

Also, 2.12 here....

 

Except that doesnt happen in practice, it was a going through the motions exercise with Gordon Browne. 

Either way this is academic because the election is not going to be that close. The Labour Party might not completely win, but the Conservatives are going to utterly lose.

 

Edited 11 October, 2023 by CB Fry

[Gloucester Saint]

6 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I'm sure I heard a peice on the radio last week where the LDs said they would not work with the Tories again... 

Davey certainly ruled out working with the Tories again on the Laura K show on the BBC a few weeks back and with Beth Rigby again more recently on Sky https://news.sky.com/story/liberal-democrat-conference-sir-ed-davey-hints-at-post-election-deal-with-labour-12969876

[Fan The Flames]

2 hours ago, Gloucester Saint said:

Davey certainly ruled out working with the Tories again on the Laura K show on the BBC a few weeks back and with Beth Rigby again more recently on Sky https://news.sky.com/story/liberal-democrat-conference-sir-ed-davey-hints-at-post-election-deal-with-labour-12969876

By saying it a lot, they clearly see it as a stratergy for seats where they are second to the tories, enabling Labour voters to tactically vote for them.

[CB Fry]

8 hours ago, Fan The Flames said:

By saying it a lot, they clearly see it as a stratergy for seats where they are second to the tories, enabling Labour voters to tactically vote for them.

In fairness to the Lib Dems they get asked this question constantly, especially in the lead up to elections because everyone knows they won't win outright. They've got to have an answer to it.

Jo Swinson tried the "your next Prime Minister" stuff and absolutely blew her election, including losing her own seat. And in those days, everyone agreed that she had great things in front of her.

So it's not really tactics, they need a position this time and it's that they won't prop the Tories up.

It's the only sensible position they can take.

Edited 12 October, 2023 by CB Fry

[Fan The Flames]

10 hours ago, CB Fry said:

In fairness to the Lib Dems they get asked this question constantly, especially in the lead up to elections because everyone knows they won't win outright. They've got to have an answer to it.

Jo Swinson tried the "your next Prime Minister" stuff and absolutely blew her election, including losing her own seat. And in those days, everyone agreed that she had great things in front of her.

So it's not really tactics, they need a position this time and it's that they won't prop the Tories up.

It's the only sensible position they can take.

Your a probably right, their position simply picks itself this time around.

[Winnersaint]

Looks like another by-election could be in the offing if the good folk of Wellingborough and Rushden want rid of Peter Bone(r). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67122669

 

[Gloucester Saint]

They’re in danger of generating even more sleaze headlines than the Major era. The sheer corruption is bad enough but the volume of sexual scandals is piling up rapidly - Pincher by name and by nature, Parish, Bone, Rob Roberts, Khan in Wakefield, Andrew Griffiths, Warburton and Elphicke. This is just Boris, Truss and Sunak era.

Lab/Lib has the odd bad apple too but nothing on this scale. Huge problem and they may need to look far more closely in selection at character rather than what people’s views are on Brexit, migration and culture wars guff.

Edited 16 October, 2023 by Gloucester Saint

[Tamesaint]

54 minutes ago, Gloucester Saint said:

They’re in danger of generating even more sleaze headlines than the Major era. The sheer corruption is bad enough but the volume of sexual scandals is piling up rapidly - Pincher by name and by nature, Parish, Bone, Rob Roberts, Khan in Wakefield, Andrew Griffiths, Warburton and Elphicke. This is just Boris, Truss and Sunak era.

Lab/Lib has the odd bad apple too but nothing on this scale. Huge problem and they may need to look far more closely in selection at character rather than what people’s views are on Brexit, migration and culture wars guff.

Conservative party members have too much power in their hands. Fancy them even thinking that Liz Truss was PM material.

I fear that they are completely unelectable until there is a radical change in Conservative party thinking. 

 

 

[rooney]

Peter Bone was always asking questions in PMQ's  prefaced with "I was talking with Mrs Bone...etc". Next thing I read that he had left her for one of his parliamentary aids.

Odd Ball.

[ecuk268]

8 hours ago, rooney said:

Peter Bone was always asking questions in PMQ's  prefaced with "I was talking with Mrs Bone...etc". Next thing I read that he had left her for one of his parliamentary aids.

Odd Ball.

He tells his side of the story:

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/is-britain-so-woke-i-can-no-longer-dangle-my-cock-in-someones-face-by-peter-bone-mp-20231017241341

 

[Sheaf Saint]

Crushing defeats for the Tories in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections yesterday (the latter has been held by them since 1931!)

Tick tock.

[Tamesaint]

7 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Crushing defeats for the Tories in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections yesterday (the latter has been held by them since 1931!)

Tick tock.

According to Lord Frost, people voted for left wing parties because the Conservatives were not right wing enough.

Labour in the past have similarly lost touch with reality and were rewarded with long spells in opposition. It is bad for democracy in this country when the opposition gets taken over by the extremists but it looks as if this is where the Tories could be going.

[Fan The Flames]

22 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

According to Lord Frost, people voted for left wing parties because the Conservatives were not right wing enough.

Labour in the past have similarly lost touch with reality and were rewarded with long spells in opposition. It is bad for democracy in this country when the opposition gets taken over by the extremists but it looks as if this is where the Tories could be going.

Indeed. Added to this, some right wing Tory voters will vote for Reform to try and pull the Tory party further to the right.   

[sadoldgit]

9 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Crushing defeats for the Tories in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections yesterday (the latter has been held by them since 1931!)

Tick tock.

Wonderful news! What was even better is that many Tory voters who didn’t feel that they could vote for anyone else decided to stay at home. They can do the nation a great service in staying at home for the general election too.

A Tory voter on the radio this morning said that he didn’t vote this time because Sunak is too far to the left of centre!!! Somehow he has completely missed how far to the right the rest of the cabinet are. He then went on to say that he could never vote Labour and would probably vote for the Reform Party next time.

[Sheaf Saint]

2 hours ago, sadoldgit said:

Wonderful news! What was even better is that many Tory voters who didn’t feel that they could vote for anyone else decided to stay at home. They can do the nation a great service in staying at home for the general election too.

A Tory voter on the radio this morning said that he didn’t vote this time because Sunak is too far to the left of centre!!! Somehow he has completely missed how far to the right the rest of the cabinet are. He then went on to say that he could never vote Labour and would probably vote for the Reform Party next time.

Wonderful. Every vote for Reform in the GE is a wasted vote that just reduces the Tories' chances of defeating Lab/Lib Dem.

[whelk]

2 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Wonderful. Every vote for Reform in the GE is a wasted vote that just reduces the Tories' chances of defeating Lab/Lib Dem.

What! you don’t see Laurence Fox as the next PM?

[buctootim]

39 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Wonderful. Every vote for Reform in the GE is a wasted vote that just reduces the Tories' chances of defeating Lab/Lib Dem.

It was a clever masterstroke by a right wing coalition of Reform, UKIP and Britain First to elect Labour. None of them could have done it alone but together they triumphed. 

Edited 20 October, 2023 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

Will we get Reform voters posting that the FPTP system is unfair and means their votes don't count ?

[Gloucester Saint]

 

[Gloucester Saint]

Here’s a problem Starmer is going to have to address properly to meet his targets on new homes although it’s easier when 10% of your funding doesn’t come from house builder boardrooms and CEOs (yes Conservative Party, I’m looking at you).

We bought a new house early 2010s from a regional and it was Ok, but we still had a flooded ceiling which had to be repaired, a boiler fitted inadequate for the property being on three levels (all of the street has since had to replace theirs within 5-8 years), plumbing issues as the sub-contractor was hopeless (and smelt of booze when they turned up to do repairs at our place under warranty), missing joist in our bathroom and although our garden was sound, some neighbours a few doors down had environmental surveys done and their gardens were essentially rubble (see below article). We are well aware we were very much the lucky ones and able to spend the money topping it up with our own builders beyond warranty to the standards they should be in a modern European country. 

What a mess the Tories and their dodgy donors have made of housing in this country of all types and sectors. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/oct/21/cracked-tiles-wonky-gutters-leaning-walls-why-are-britains-new-houses-so-rubbish#:~:text=From the virtual monopoly of,the rapidly declining skilled workforce%2C

We’ve got a small executive housing development going in near us where the cost of each one will be seven figures plus and the standard of construction is like one of those from a 1970s public information film where Jimmy loses his frisbee in the substation. At this price point if it’s this bad, Lord help the mid and lower price points. When it’s being built, you don’t get to hire the trades and assess if they’ve got the right skills and attitude - that ship has sailed.
You are reliant on the builder putting it right and the article reflects the experiences of a huge volume of friends who have bought from the worst national firms - the regionals are generally better but you still need to put a minimum of £10-15k aside to sort issues 5-10 years from new arising. Amongst the nationals, I’d only consider Redrow or Bloor, not as good as regionals but OK but with a £20k top up fund. With the other nationals, you better hope the site manager gave a shit.

We’ve since bought a 60s/70s doer-upper on a huge plot (60s original and 70s extension) and although dated in places, the core standard of construction is simply light years ahead of today’s nationals in quality and professional pride. Our trades have in the main ranged from excellent to decent without being special to others who have needed constant supervision from us or family. One’s handiwork wasn’t up to it so part-paid and had to bring someone else in to re-do some of it.
The decent ones are incredibly busy after Brexit and the ones who voted for it have buyers regret as they can see how it’s left them struggling to meet demand and lowered standards across the trades.

How to fix it:

- Dedicated visa route for EU national building professionals akin to the Global Talent visas

- Proper degree apprenticeships and other level 7 technical qualifications where there is a lot more inspection of building firms to ensure the learners are actually getting the hands-on experience and guidance they need and deserve. The FE colleges need more powers too as an accrediting bodies. Easier to do it with first one enacted as the mentoring will be there. Despite what Suella Farage says, it’s simple to both grow the domestic labour pool and overseas - ample opportunities to develop. The nationals don’t want to do it as too lazy, failed uncompetitive market and don’t see it as a priority if the profits flowing. And the Tories have a conflict of interest.

- Re-instatement of proper, industry independent inspections with teeth. Penalties across large-scale failures could include very hefty fines levied on company boards until major faults are fixed for buyers to independent scrutiny standards. That’ll pay for the proper skills development they currently won’t fund. Self-regulation doesn’t work and local authority building control is spread so thin post-austerity. It’s very possible to have a very profitable sector with significantly better buyer experience. Isn’t that what aspiration is about?

Edited 22 October, 2023 by Gloucester Saint

[Lord Duckhunter]

On 20/10/2023 at 19:25, badgerx16 said:

Will we get Reform voters posting that the FPTP system is unfair and means their votes don't count ?

Seeing as the Brexit party & before that UKIP, both proposed PR & both were against FPTP. Added to the fact Reforms leader has spoken out constantly against FPTP, I don’t think your comment is quite as clever or funny as you thought it was. 

Edited 22 October, 2023 by Lord Duckhunter

[east-stand-nic]

I just cannot wait to see what the lefties on here use as excuses when nothing at all changes for the first 2 or 3 years under labour, and it wont. It never does. No matter who gets in, inflation, taxes, incomes etc., stay much the same relatively. I have never been any better off under either in my working lifetime.

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, east-stand-nic said:

I just cannot wait to see what the lefties on here use as excuses when nothing at all changes for the first 2 or 3 years under labour, and it wont. It never does. No matter who gets in, inflation, taxes, incomes etc., stay much the same relatively. I have never been any better off under either in my working lifetime.

So much that affects the country is out of the Government's control that whoever is in power only dances around the fringes. Wild swings from one margin to the other can never deliver. There are a few concessions to pander to their party faithful, but in general Manifestos are less a to-do list and more a 'would be nice to, but........ '.

Electing a Government is any way more about the personalities and morality than the policies.

[badgerx16]

20 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Seeing as the Brexit party & before that UKIP, both proposed PR & both were against FPTP. Added to the fact Reforms leader has spoken out constantly against FPTP, I don’t think your comment is quite as clever or funny as you thought it was. 

It was an ironic post aimed at the recurring exchanges on here between you and SOG.

If Reform helps to bring about a truly proportional electoral system, bring it on.

Edited 22 October, 2023 by badgerx16

[Lord Duckhunter]

7 minutes ago, east-stand-nic said:

I just cannot wait to see what the lefties on here use as excuses when nothing at all changes for the first 2 or 3 years under labour, and it wont. It never does. No matter who gets in, inflation, taxes, incomes etc., stay much the same relatively. I have never been any better off under either in my working lifetime.

It’s been one big blob since Maggie. 
 

Blair, Cameron, Sunak, May, Boris, Major could have been in the same party. Brown was probably the exceptions, but he came at the wrong time 

[rallyboy]

26 minutes ago, east-stand-nic said:

I just cannot wait to see what the lefties on here use as excuses when nothing at all changes for the first 2 or 3 years under labour, 

Me too.

It's been established now that you get at least thirteen years leeway to blame the previous government, and if you can distract people by jailing members of the worst-qualified and most corrupt cabinet in British history, that would probably buy some goodwill as well.

Other than that, they'll need to hit the ground running and try something new, like appointing ministers who aren't on the take, and perhaps some who have an IQ over 40. 

Either way, I'm pretty sure all those soppy woke lefties that I too worry about at night, will be screaming just as loud at a new government if it doesn't improve hospitals, the police, education, GPs, the courts, mental health services, support for the disabled, border control, prisons, transport and all the other areas that are currently a total shitshow.

In fact, it might be that these leftie demons, the Wokerati, the sandal-wearing, tofu set from Islington who walk among us, aren't lefties at all.

They could be just ordinary people who would like a country to be proud of with services that work, and were abandoned in the middle ground when the racists, the corrupt and the lunatics lurched so far up the right wing they're now in Row KK? 

 

[east-stand-nic]

2 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

It’s been one big blob since Maggie. 
 

Blair, Cameron, Sunak, May, Boris, Major could have been in the same party. Brown was probably the exceptions, but he came at the wrong time 

Actually, I think Major could well have done better if not so scared of the Thatcher legacy he followed on from. But yes, I also thought GB was better than he got credit for in many cases. But then, I am not so myopic as most on here. I am neither them nor the others. I am who ever seems genuinely best. But some on here will never vote Lab/Con no matter what they say. This is why I hate politics as so many people are so entrenched in one camp they are now simply against the others no matter what.

I don't think Starmer will do much as is weak so far as i can see. But leaving Sunak in charge would probably be worse as it would send all the wrong messages to the tories. Got to get them out no matter what this time around.

[whelk]

37 minutes ago, east-stand-nic said:

Actually, I think Major could well have done better if not so scared of the Thatcher legacy he followed on from. But yes, I also thought GB was better than he got credit for in many cases. But then, I am not so myopic as most on here. I am neither them nor the others. I am who ever seems genuinely best. But some on here will never vote Lab/Con no matter what they say. This is why I hate politics as so many people are so entrenched in one camp they are now simply against the others no matter what.

I don't think Starmer will do much as is weak so far as i can see. But leaving Sunak in charge would probably be worse as it would send all the wrong messages to the tories. Got to get them out no matter what this time around.

How do know so much about ‘some on here’ oh rounded one?

[sadoldgit]

Boris Johnson is to have his own show on GB News and will be covering next years elections on it. What a shock 🙄

[Turkish]

4 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

Boris Johnson is to have his own show on GB News and will be covering next years elections on it. What a shock 🙄

Will All 200 viewers be gripped by it as much as you are?

Edited 27 October, 2023 by Turkish

[Gloucester Saint]

3 hours ago, Turkish said:

Will All 200 viewers be gripped by it as much as you are?

Legatum’s fortune from offshore will gone quickly at this rate, as we know Boris won’t get out of bed for less than a King’s Ransom. Their P&L sheets must look horrible unless the advertisers are equally to lose their shirt. A lot of rifts and departures amongst the investors since it started. Their business sense is worse than Sports Republic it seems.

https://www.legatum.com/about/people/

They seem to be a shit magnet in terms of the presenters and timing too. George Osborne has been hinting very strongly on his podcast with Ed Balls that there’s some very offensive stuff to emerge next week at the Covid enquiry, most of it from Boris and Cummings. On the other hand, I supposed it could boost the ratings to two JDW pubs’ worth of viewers rather than the current one! https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/george-osborne-says-covid-inquiry-has-disgusting-misogynistic-whatsapps-from-boris-johnsons-no10_uk_653b6c9ce4b05def8bc74351

Edited 27 October, 2023 by Gloucester Saint

[revolution saint]

On 22/10/2023 at 11:43, east-stand-nic said:

I just cannot wait to see what the lefties on here use as excuses when nothing at all changes for the first 2 or 3 years under labour, and it wont. It never does. No matter who gets in, inflation, taxes, incomes etc., stay much the same relatively. I have never been any better off under either in my working lifetime.

I think Blair was pretty transformative; introduced the minimum wage, gave BoE independence and spent a relative fortune on the public sector which did get results such as reducing NHS waiting lists. You might not like much of that but it was definitely not the actions of a Tory government 

[Sheaf Saint]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67233090

Another one? anybody would think there is some kind of problem with the culture within the Tory party at this rate.

[badgerx16]

Extract from a BBC article about Cruella;

"These latest comments are unhinged," one senior Conservative tells me.

A senior Conservative MP adds: "The home secretary's awfulness is now a reflection on the prime minister. Keeping her in post is damaging him."

A third source, a senior Tory, claims her remarks about Northern Ireland are "wholly offensive and ignorant."

[whelk]

CB Fry may have to rename the ‘well it definitely won’t be Suella B’  thread when the Tories ditch Sunak for this nutter

[Tamesaint]

Is there any chance that Suells could be a *blue wall casualty* at the next election? She did have a huge majority in 2019 but nowadays there are few safe Conservative seats. 

Her Fareham constituency is subject to boundary changes. Does anyone have any knowledge of what these are likely to do to the constituency profile? 

Edited 9 November, 2023 by Tamesaint