Saints run in - the final 10 games

[Daft Kerplunk]

28 minutes ago, Billy the Kidd said:

Not saying we will get to safety, but isnt your point valid of all the teams near the bottom, they have all been shit.

Literally could go either way for many teams right now.

Indeed, but we are behind them so it’s tougher for us. I agree that there are plenty of teams in the mix for relegation this year, but have a tough close to the season and have no indication of getting out of the mire. This year would stand alongside the great escapes, something we all had hoped were a thing of the past until not that long ago. 

[Dark Munster]

3 hours ago, Turkish said:

For me those two home games against forest and wolves have killed us. Losing to a team who had only scored one away goal was criminal, then losing to a team (were then below us at the time?) who played an hour with 10 men and were one goal down is just beyond ridiculous. A couple of wins and we’d be sitting pretty despite being shite even a couple of draws and the table looks very different out of the relegation zone, above forest and level on points with Wolves and Leicester. The Nathan Jones period has killed us this season. 

Yes, the Forest and Wolves debacles were daggers in the heart, although the latter did get rid of the disastrous numpty.

In fairness the Elland Road abomination needs to be added to that list, so Selles isn't blameless either.

[JRM]

15 minutes ago, Dark Munster said:

Yes, the Forest and Wolves debacles were daggers in the heart, although the latter did get rid of the disastrous numpty.

In fairness the Elland Road abomination needs to be added to that list, so Selles isn't blameless either.

Everton at home as well so you can add Ralph to the list . 

This weekend FA Cup games have brought up mentions of the Grimsby disgrace, still not got over that. 

[NewYorkSaint]

The one factor that gives me hope is I think we're on a bigger improvement curve than the teams around us. Selles, Sulemana and Alcaraz are all talented, and are slowly coming into their own. Even Mara may yet surprise. on our day we can take a point or 3 off the biggest teams. A lot depends on growing confidence. I'd say next three games incredibly important. If we can pick up 4-5 points from those I think we can stay up.

[woodsaint1]

Still dont see three teams worse than us. Maybe two if im biased, but unless somebody else hits the skids we're gone.

Tbf after the shit show served up in December and January, I thought we would be 7/8 points adrift so kudos to Selles and the team (and the teams around us being terribly inconsistent too)

[SaintJackoInHurworth]

I think you may find that the number of points required for safety may be a bit less than usual this year while the bottom club may have a little bit more than normal and the gap between clubs could be less than normal too (as it is at present).

Also, it is worth looking at the fixtures of our competitors too. While some may not see any way we can get 14/15 points, I think the same can be said for some of our fellow relegation rivals and I actually think the team with the worst fixtures is Everton Including my forecast results):

Spurs (H)          1-2
Man Utd (A)      0-2
Chelsea (A)       1-2
Palace (A)         1-2
Newcastle (H)  1-1
Leicester (A)     0-1
Brighton (A)      1-2
Man City (H)     0-2
Wolves (A)        1-1
Bompey (H)      2-0
        
Total Points =        5   
Current Points =  26
Total Points =       31 pts

Meanwhile, these are the Bournemouth fixtures:

Fulham (H)
Brighton (H)
Leicester (A)
Spurs (A)
West Ham (H)
Saints (A)
Leeds (H)
Chelsea (H)
Palace (A)
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)

I can't see them staying up with that lot! I think they will get about 6 poiunts and end up with a total of about 30 points.

Finally, Forest will also struggle with these fixtures:

Wolves (H)
Leeds (A)
Villa (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Brighton (H)
Brentford (A)
Saints (H)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Palace (A)

I reckon that will yield about 5 points leaving them with 31 points.

On this basis we would only need about 32-36 points to stay up, which I think is more than possible.

[SaintBobby]

We're probably down. Likely need 12 or so points. Maybe 10 or 11 could do it, maybe we need as many as 15.

So, basically 4 wins out of 10. Or 3 wins and 3 draws. That sort of thing. And that's to survive by a whisker - especially as our GD ain't good.

Big ask. Good knows where the points come from - but then I didn't expect to get 2 from the recent Spurs and Man U games. We will probably beat Newacstel away and lose 4-0 at home to Palace...

[cloggy saint]

It's probably already been said, but our form over the last 6 games, results wise if not performance, is equal best with Everton out of the bottom 9. Forest and Palace are in free fall, and the rest are pretty much as useless as each other, I wouldn't bet against any 3.

[Saint Fan CaM]

7 hours ago, cloggy saint said:

It's probably already been said, but our form over the last 6 games, results wise if not performance, is equal best with Everton out of the bottom 9. Forest and Palace are in free fall, and the rest are pretty much as useless as each other, I wouldn't bet against any 3.

And yet we still sit on the bottom and therein lies the problem…six games and we’ve not moved.  Unless three teams above us all consistently lose, we will continue to be kept rooted to the bottom. Draws are not enough now…we desperately need three points right now to ensure there’s enough time to get and stay above the drop zone.

[CB Fry]

10 hours ago, SaintJackoInHurworth said:

I think you may find that the number of points required for safety may be a bit less than usual this year while the bottom club may have a little bit more than normal and the gap between clubs could be less than normal too (as it is at present).

Also, it is worth looking at the fixtures of our competitors too. While some may not see any way we can get 14/15 points, I think the same can be said for some of our fellow relegation rivals and I actually think the team with the worst fixtures is Everton Including my forecast results):

Spurs (H)          1-2
Man Utd (A)      0-2
Chelsea (A)       1-2
Palace (A)         1-2
Newcastle (H)  1-1
Leicester (A)     0-1
Brighton (A)      1-2
Man City (H)     0-2
Wolves (A)        1-1
Bompey (H)      2-0
        
Total Points =        5   
Current Points =  26
Total Points =       31 pts

Meanwhile, these are the Bournemouth fixtures:

Fulham (H)
Brighton (H)
Leicester (A)
Spurs (A)
West Ham (H)
Saints (A)
Leeds (H)
Chelsea (H)
Palace (A)
Man Utd (H)
Everton (A)

I can't see them staying up with that lot! I think they will get about 6 poiunts and end up with a total of about 30 points.

Finally, Forest will also struggle with these fixtures:

Wolves (H)
Leeds (A)
Villa (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Brighton (H)
Brentford (A)
Saints (H)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Palace (A)

I reckon that will yield about 5 points leaving them with 31 points.

On this basis we would only need about 32-36 points to stay up, which I think is more than possible.

Absolute pie in the sky.

All these other clubs aren't all going to collectively roll over and relegate themselves just for our benefit.

Bournemouth are going down, congratulations. So are we.

One other team will also drop bit the idea that the bottom 5 or 6 are all going to only pick up half a point a game for the last ten games is absolutely ludicrous.

Saints need 36-8 points to actually stay up themselves, not just bimble around waiting for other clubs to all commit suicide.

[SNSUN]

We have, IMO, if we play our absolute best in them, 5 more winnable games. That's West Ham, Palace, Bompey, Forest and Fulham. Again if we play our best we could possibly take Newcastle and Brighton for a draw. Massively surprised if we get anything from City, Arsenal or Liverpool.

 

So our absolute best points total we could achieve is 17 putting us on 40 and IMO guaranteed safety. 'Tis the dream!

 

The problem is for every good performance we have another 3 or 4 crap ones like Leeds/Brentford in us waiting to haunt us AND we're down a couple of centre backs. So if I'm trying to be realistic I think we could get another 10 or 11 points which, I still don't think, will be enough. If we do survive I'll get a tattoo of Selles on my butt.*

*Not legally binding.

[Turkish]

39 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Absolute pie in the sky.

All these other clubs aren't all going to collectively roll over and relegate themselves just for our benefit.

Bournemouth are going down, congratulations. So are we.

One other team will also drop bit the idea that the bottom 5 or 6 are all going to only pick up half a point a game for the last ten games is absolutely ludicrous.

Saints need 36-8 points to actually stay up themselves, not just bimble around waiting for other clubs to all commit suicide.

Normally when we are somewhere between 12-15th we're convinced all the other teams below us are going to go on an unstoppable run and suck us in the drop zone and through the trap door, so no worries, ours is going to start anytime soon, just you wait and see, Palace, Wolves, Everton, you're going down in china town.

[east-stand-nic]

The hardest thing to predict is how many points will be enough? If Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham, Leicester and Forest keep up their recent form, they may only get something like 7 more points each at best. So, could 34/35 be enough?

Personally I think we are down. Looking at the remaining fixture list and being as honest as i can be i see this...

West Ham v Saints - Draw

Saints v Man City - Lose

Saints v Palace - Win

Arsenal v Saints - Lose

Saints v Bournemouth - Win

Newcastle v Saints - Lose

Forest v Saints - Draw

Saints v Fulham - Draw

Brighton v Saints - Lose

Saints v Liverpool - Lose

9 more points. Total 32 and gone.

[trousers]

1 hour ago, Saint Fan CaM said:

And yet we still sit on the bottom and therein lies the problem…six games and we’ve not moved

I think a more significant marker in terms of 'progress' over the last few weeks is, as someone else posted the other day, that every week for the last few weeks we have got one point closer to 12th. If that relative form continued then we would inevitably catch up with the 12th place team before the end of the season...

Alas, I don't think that pattern will continue and I still think we're down regardless. 

Edited 20 March, 2023 by trousers

[Mr Nimbus]

The way I look at it is the performance against Brentford is a truer reflection of what this team is about, as opposed to the second half of the Spurs game.

I must admit at 3-1 I was done. The previous game has killed any lingering hopes of survival. I want to be wrong, I would love to be wrong but I cant see any more than 8 points from our 10 games left.

 

[saintwbu]

I completely agree it’s unlikely at the moment we will stay up. But people saying we won’t get 12/15 points or whatever they’re deciding is enough - we’re currently 4 points off Crystal Palace, who have won 1 game since the first week of November in all competitions, and that was against Bournemouth. What do you think the odds are of them getting 10 points or so to stay ahead of us? I guarantee fans of every team above us up to Palace are worried we can catch them, and mathematically we can. But it’ll take beating teams around us, and at the very least not losing to them, to give ourselves any chance.

[chiknsmack]

18 minutes ago, saintwbu said:

Crystal Palace... What do you think the odds are of them getting 10 points or so to stay ahead of us?

They've scored five goals this year - in twelve games - so you'd think they would struggle to beat anyone. That said, their final ten includes matches with all eight teams currently below them on the table. They picked up 16 points in the reverse fixtures.

I haven't been a Saints fan for as long as some on here, but I know enough to know that relegation battles and final-day escapes are in the club's blood. And I've seen enough under Selles to be hopeful that this lot can stay up. The fightback and that whole "actually scoring goals from open play" thing they did on the weekend are the clearest signs yet. But as poor as Palace have been recently, they're the last team I could realistically entertain Saints finishing above.

[malcolm waldron]

17 hours ago, James G said:

I think Palace, Bournemouth and Forest will go down at this point in time. I think Saints will scrape to safety. Different dynamics come into play at this point of the season. 

What was that you said back in December - '.....all aboard the daftee express.....' 😆

[Saint Fan CaM]

1 hour ago, trousers said:

I think a more significant marker in terms of 'progress' over the last few weeks is, as someone else posted the other day, that every week for the last few weeks we have got one point closer to 12th. If that relative form continued then we would inevitably catch up with the 12th place team before the end of the season...

Alas, I don't think that pattern will continue and I still think we're down regardless. 

Admittedly it’s very difficult to tell which way it’s going to trend for us, but one things for sure and that is we really don’t want our fate decided for us by other teams. That’s why a win and three points is so vital right now - it will make such a difference to our ability to fight for a place above the drop zone on our terms.

[fanimal]

Just look at the goal difference of Forest Bournemouth and Saints 

An extra point needed just for that!

Those are the three going down unfortunately 

[Dman]

The only ones I’m pretty certain will drop is us and Bournemouth. The last place is massively up for grabs and I change my mind on a weekly basis. 

Forest or Leeds are my guess. 

[Dman]

When you look at the games we’ve lost this season, it really rubs salt into the wound. 

Wolves have taken 6 points from us, which should have been 1. Che not scoring from 1 yard out, being 1-0 up and losing against 10 men.

Forest beat us at home. They’ve won 1 away game all season and it was against us (fact checked). We should not have lost that game and had it have been a month earlier or later, I don’t think we would have. 

The swing in point from those games alone would have probably seen us safe come May. 
 

We’ve left ourselves with too much to do. 

Edited 20 March, 2023 by Dman

[SaintTex]

as pessimistic as some of us are, there are 8 other team forums where their supporters are expressing the same pessimism -  Discussing where the wins will come, how many points they need, speculating on losses of other clubs, etc?

In a way, there a 9 boats in various stages of sinking, the question will be which 6 will find a way to stay afloat.

6 have to stay up - why not us? I have not given up hope yet.

 

 

[Nordic Saint]

13 hours ago, east-stand-nic said:

The hardest thing to predict is how many points will be enough? If Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham, Leicester and Forest keep up their recent form, they may only get something like 7 more points each at best. So, could 34/35 be enough?

Personally I think we are down. Looking at the remaining fixture list and being as honest as i can be i see this...

West Ham v Saints - Draw

Saints v Man City - Lose

Saints v Palace - Win

Arsenal v Saints - Lose

Saints v Bournemouth - Win

Newcastle v Saints - Lose

Forest v Saints - Draw

Saints v Fulham - Draw

Brighton v Saints - Lose

Saints v Liverpool - Lose

9 more points. Total 32 and gone.

Your predictions are reasonable but if we go on a little run and beat 2 out of Forest, Fulham and Brighton, we might just scrape home. The final game of the season will be massive and hopefully a repeat of the same fixture 7 years ago to this day, when we came back from 0-2 down to win 3-2. What an end to the season that would be. 

 

[Mr Nimbus]

12 hours ago, SaintTex said:

as pessimistic as some of us are, there are 8 other team forums where their supporters are expressing the same pessimism -  Discussing where the wins will come, how many points they need, speculating on losses of other clubs, etc?

In a way, there a 9 boats in various stages of sinking, the question will be which 6 will find a way to stay afloat.

6 have to stay up - why not us? I have not given up hope yet.

 

 

Thats a completely valid post. What I would say is unlike the other 8 teams you referenced, we are bottom of the table despite going on our best run in a long time, have a huge weight of history against us (teams escaping when being bottom) and I would say squad wise we are probably second worst.

Other than that though everything looks wonderful 😄

[Whitey Grandad]

48 minutes ago, Mr Nimbus said:

Thats a completely valid post. What I would say is unlike the other 8 teams you referenced, we are bottom of the table despite going on our best run in a long time, have a huge weight of history against us (teams escaping when being bottom) and I would say squad wise we are probably second worst.

Other than that though everything looks wonderful 😄

We are bottom of the table because of the cumulative result of what happened before our recent best run in a long time. The crucial part there is “in a long time”. We are picking up more points but have probably left it too late to pull out of trouble.

[benjii]

On 18/03/2023 at 21:22, The Kraken said:

Excellent battling back today, it keeps the sliver of survival alive.  We’ve got 10 games left so we’re into desperation stakes. We’ve got 23 points. I reckon 36 or 37 points stays up this season; could be less but it’s so tight and current “safety” is 25 points from 27, Leicester and Everton each with a game in hand.

Hers our run in. I’ll be honest, I’m struggling to see where 13 or 14 points comes from.

West Ham v Saints

Saints v Man City

Saints v Palace

Arsenal v Saints

Saints v Bournemouth

Newcastle v Saints

Forest v Saints

Saints v Fulham

Brighton v Saints

Saints v Liverpool

Yeah, we really needed more points from these last few home games.

With our poor GD, I think we'll need at least 36 points, so 4 wins and a draw, possibly 4 wins and 2 draws. Not likely we'll do that in 10 matches.

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

Taken in isolation, West Ham, Fulham, Bournemouth, Forest, Palace & Brighton are winnable in the run in, but can’t see us winning anymore than half of them. Add a draw or 2 and maybe a draw in one of the tougher 4 other games and you’re looking at 33/34 points. Be a miracle if we stay up with that number. I guess if the 3 wins are Bournemouth, Forest & Palace, and then palace implode there’s a slight chance with that low total, but I don’t really see it. Our home form is way too ropey & we don’t convert enough chances.I want to still believe, but just can’t. 

[JRM]

19 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Taken in isolation, West Ham, Fulham, Bournemouth, Forest, Palace & Brighton are winnable in the run in, but can’t see us winning anymore than half of them. Add a draw or 2 and maybe a draw in one of the tougher 4 other games and you’re looking at 33/34 points. Be a miracle if we stay up with that number. I guess if the 3 wins are Bournemouth, Forest & Palace, and then palace implode there’s a slight chance with that low total, but I don’t really see it. Our home form is way too ropey & we don’t convert enough chances.I want to still believe, but just can’t. 

Sums up my thoughts, would be great to get an old school great escape atmosphere going but I can't see it happening unfortunately. 

[kwsaint]

In the great escape year of 1998/99 we won 7 and drew 2 of our last 9 home games.  It's what kept us up.  The difference now is that our home form is terrible.  We simply don't know how to break down teams that sit deep and break quickly.  Once we concede then the game is lost.  We have an outside chance of staying up but I really can't see it happening.  We have too much to do, largely because of the ineptitude of the NJ era and losing at home against the teams around us.