Relegation run-in 2022/23

[LiberalCommunist]

On the bright side, we are mostly shit against the bottom sides. 

[Chewy]

  On 05/03/2023 at 18:44, LiberalCommunist said:

On the bright side, we are mostly shit against the bottom sides. 

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On the other hand we’re also mostly sh1t against the top and middle sides. And sides from League 2 as well.

[CB Fry]

  On 05/03/2023 at 17:50, Baird of the land said:

Have us on a knife edge goal difference wise.

 

 

 

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You've got Forest winning one more game out of their remaining 13 matches. OK then.

If that was us in their position right now, half of this forum would be scenario planning finishing top half and asking the annual question about whether 9th place got you into Europe.

[Baird of the land]

  On 05/03/2023 at 20:02, CB Fry said:

You've got Forest winning one more game out of their remaining 13 matches. OK then.

If that was us in their position right now, half of this forum would be scenario planning finishing top half and asking the annual question about whether 9th place got you into Europe.

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They haven’t got particularly nice home games in my opinion, outside of wolves and us.

i was maybe slightly partisan in putting saints down for a draw in their easiest home game

[SambaMaverick]

Here's what my brain has conjured up.

Two wins, five draws from 13 games just to finish 18th

I may have gone slightly heavy on the draws for West Ham

Edited 5 March, 2023 by SambaMaverick

[trousers]

  On 05/03/2023 at 16:36, Saint_clark said:

Premier League » Table calculator (worldfootball.net)

 

There's the predictor for anyone who wants to have a go. Interested to see others results.

(Be sure to go back to previous game weeks and do the games in hand). 

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Hmm...

[Super_Uwe]

Can't believe Man U lost 7-0 today!

Wonder how that will pan out for us...hopefully they will be still be in shock and we can nick a point (or more)☺️

[Maggie May]

  On 05/03/2023 at 21:37, Super_Uwe said:

Can't believe Man U lost 7-0 today!

Wonder how that will pan out for us...hopefully they will be still be in shock and we can nick a point (or more)☺️

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 Our famous 6-3 win against United came the very next match after they were thumped 5-0 by Newcastle.  And that was a great escape season…

[InvictaSaint]

[Daft Kerplunk]

With no rose tinted glasses when doing the predictor, my bottom 3 stays as is. Can see us getting a few wins and some surprise results but not quite enough. 

[Saint_clark]

  On 05/03/2023 at 21:48, Maggie May said:

 Our famous 6-3 win against United came the very next match after they were thumped 5-0 by Newcastle.  And that was a great escape season…

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Hoping that they come out complacent thinking it'll be a much easier game and we raise our levels because the only time our players properly perform is when they're in the shop window.

[Saint Fan CaM]

Ran the calculator and still had us relegated.

[Nolan]

  On 05/03/2023 at 22:27, InvictaSaint said:

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they had Southampton at 71% on March 1st....

stating the bleeding obvious: Wins will reduce that percentage further.

[malcolm waldron]

How frustrating, and potentially terminally impactful, have all those one goal defeats against teams around us been.  

[tajjuk]

  On 05/03/2023 at 18:44, LiberalCommunist said:

On the bright side, we are mostly shit against the bottom sides. 

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We are kind of bad against everyone this season, but historically we have always struggled more against defensive sit back teams rather than teams that try to attack us, even more so in the Ralph pressing era which we have gone gone back to under Selles.

We struggle to create goals on our own, its always more been about creating chaos in the opposition that has created us chances and won us games. So honestly going back to our core pressing principles which Selles seems to be doing, then we will be doing better against your Brightons, Chelseas, Villas, Fulhams, Leicesters etc. than we will against a Dyche Everton team or Bournemouth or Brentford etc. 

[Mr Nimbus]

Some decentish fixtures for the upcoming weekend. You'd imagine Leeds and West Ham would be looking for home wins but neither are cut and dry.

So even if we likely lose away at OT the situation could still be relatively similar which is a plus.

[saintant]

  On 06/03/2023 at 09:45, tajjuk said:

We are kind of bad against everyone this season, but historically we have always struggled more against defensive sit back teams rather than teams that try to attack us, even more so in the Ralph pressing era which we have gone gone back to under Selles.

We struggle to create goals on our own, its always more been about creating chaos in the opposition that has created us chances and won us games. So honestly going back to our core pressing principles which Selles seems to be doing, then we will be doing better against your Brightons, Chelseas, Villas, Fulhams, Leicesters etc. than we will against a Dyche Everton team or Bournemouth or Brentford etc. 

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A good coach should be able to mix it up - horses for courses. As to us now being a high pressing side, the jury is sill out on that for me. We don't press anything like as high or aggressively as we did under both Poch and Ralph in the early days. I'd like to see us revert to the aggressive high press because it's when we look our best and give opponents more trouble plus the five subs rule helps when players tire.

[JRM]

A mate sent me this from todays paper, I see Palace haven't won in 9 games (and play Man City this weekend) they are probably fine with points on the board and seem to pick up a few draws but often there is one team who slips down second half of the season. 

Our 2023 form doesn't seem so bad when looking at that 

 

[obelisk]

So Saints form since 1 Jan is 1.125 points per game. Maintain that and it gets us another 14 or 15 points. Tight.

[the saint in winchester]

I think the concensus is Bournemouth, Saints and Everton to go down, and I'd go along with that.

[Alanh]

I think we need to get another 15 points to give ourselves a chance.  So we've got to beat the likes of Bournemouth, Palace, Forest, Brentford and Fulham.  Those are not likely to all happen so we will probably need to pick up either a series of draws against better teams or a surprising win like the two against Chelsea.  Even 36 points might not be enough but it has been witout goal difference being a factor since 2015/16 when Newcastle went down with 37 points.

[Saint_clark]

  On 06/03/2023 at 15:36, obelisk said:

So Saints form since 1 Jan is 1.125 points per game. Maintain that and it gets us another 14 or 15 points. Tight.

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I think 14 points would be enough. People seem to think that because there's so many teams involved that the threshold to stay up will be higher, but it'll actually be the opposite.

[JRM]

  On 06/03/2023 at 18:30, Saint_clark said:

I think 14 points would be enough. People seem to think that because there's so many teams involved that the threshold to stay up will be higher, but it'll actually be the opposite.

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Not sure how to find this out, but by this time of the season  how many points do the bottom 3 usually have? Would give an indication if we're on for a higher than usual points required 

 

[bpsaint]

  On 06/03/2023 at 09:12, malcolm waldron said:

How frustrating, and potentially terminally impactful, have all those one goal defeats against teams around us been.  

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Makes the decision to not bring in a striker with Prem experience back in summer even more frustrating.

Even if they were crap and only scored 5 goals they’d still be a better option than Armstrong and we’d likely have 2 or 3 more points than we do currently.

[sydenhamssocks]

Lowest points total ever to avoid relegation from Prem is 34. WBA 04/05. 
Lowest points total we’ve ever avoided relegation with is 36. 17/18. 
the way is stands 36 could well be a stay up number, but with everyone closing in on each other.
goal difference is going have a big say for sure. 

[Scoobysaint]

Been through the run in and got Bournemouth, Leeds and Everton going down, with Palace staying up on goal difference. Think I may have been slightly optimistic as we were safe with two games to go on 37points! 🤞

[West end Saints]

 

In my mind we are 80-90% down. 

 

However, I just did the predictor, & thought my scores would relegate us, but final table had us safe with 35.

 

Bottom 4:

Forest 30

Bournemouth 29

West Ham 28

Leeds 27

 

Don't know if I was ridiculously hard on them, or whether they have a hard run in. 

 

[woodsaint1]

  On 06/03/2023 at 23:22, West end Saints said:

 

In my mind we are 80-90% down. 

 

However, I just did the predictor, & thought my scores would relegate us, but final table had us safe with 35.

 

Bottom 4:

Forest 30

Bournemouth 29

West Ham 28

Leeds 27

 

Don't know if I was ridiculously hard on them, or whether they have a hard run in. 

 

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Id say you've been very hard on them 😂. West Ham and Leeds both picking up just 5 points from the 39 on offer is Derby 07/08 lowest points ever type of numbers

[CB Fry]

  On 06/03/2023 at 23:22, West end Saints said:

 

In my mind we are 80-90% down. 

 

However, I just did the predictor, & thought my scores would relegate us, but final table had us safe with 35.

 

Bottom 4:

Forest 30

Bournemouth 29

West Ham 28

Leeds 27

 

Don't know if I was ridiculously hard on them, or whether they have a hard run in. 

 

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Jesus wept.

[West end Saints]

  On 07/03/2023 at 00:10, woodsaint1 said:

Id say you've been very hard on them 😂. West Ham and Leeds both picking up just 5 points from the 39 on offer is Derby 07/08 lowest points ever type of numbers

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Yea, must have been. Shows how hard these predictors are as I don't think for a minute that is how it will actually finish

[Toussaint]

  On 06/03/2023 at 09:12, malcolm waldron said:

How frustrating, and potentially terminally impactful, have all those one goal defeats against teams around us been.  

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I keep thinking about Forest and Wolves at home and Leeds away, all six pointers at the time, should have got something out of each of those, which would have dramatically changed the bottom of the table. The one that makes me most angry is Wolves, that was 100% on Jones.

[Dusic]

Just been through the predictor and it came out exactly as I wanted it to.

Made sure I picked 3 teams and almost always predicted them to lose. Those 3 ended up being relegated and Saints stayed up.

If anyone needs any help getting a positive outcome from their predictions fire me over a DM.

[kwsaint]

The various bookies on Oddschecker have the likelihood of Saints going down between 65-70%.  Feels about right.  Still got a chance of staying up but more likely to go down than stay up.

[saintwbu]

I’ve thought we’re down for ages, but people saying we won’t get 14/15 points to stay up must be confident that Leeds, Everton and West Ham will get 12/13 points to stay up given they’re only a point or two above us. I bet their forums aren’t showing the same level of confidence! Most of these teams are only above us because of the points they’ve taken off us this season, without that they’d be below us. 

[StDunko]

  On 07/03/2023 at 08:52, Dusic said:

Just been through the predictor and it came out exactly as I wanted it to.

Made sure I picked 3 teams and almost always predicted them to lose. Those 3 ended up being relegated and Saints stayed up.

If anyone needs any help getting a positive outcome from their predictions fire me over a DM.

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Thanks for the offer, as I think I need help with this, I chose Arsenal, Man City and Newcastle and no matter what results I choose, none of them seem to be relegated...

[beatlesaint]

Well what have we got at home that we can win?

Bournemouth and Palace are must wins. One win out of Brentford/Spurs or Fulham with Liverpool and Man City very unlikely to get anything.

So 9 points minimum which leave a couple of wins, or one and two draws away. 

I'm not confident at all. 

[CamSaint]

Look at some of the results that have occurred over the last few weeks: Bournemouth drew with Newcastle, Saints beat Chelsea, Everton beat Arsenal, West Ham drew with Chelsea, Leicester beat Spurs, Forest drew with Man City, Wolves beat Liverpool and Spurs. Not sure many people would have predicted those results (especially the fans of the respective clubs!).

So while, like most people, I look at Saints fixture list with some trepidation, it is clearly possible for clubs at the bottom end of the table to pick up points from the 'bigger' clubs. So why couldn't Saints do so? (Cue a torrent of abuse about how s**t we are🤣).

[saintwbu]

  On 07/03/2023 at 12:16, CamSaint said:

Look at some of the results that have occurred over the last few weeks: Bournemouth drew with Newcastle, Saints beat Chelsea, Everton beat Arsenal, West Ham drew with Chelsea, Leicester beat Spurs, Forest drew with Man City, Wolves beat Liverpool and Spurs. Not sure many people would have predicted those results (especially the fans of the respective clubs!).

So while, like most people, I look at Saints fixture list with some trepidation, it is clearly possible for clubs at the bottom end of the table to pick up points from the 'bigger' clubs. So why couldn't Saints do so? (Cue a torrent of abuse about how s**t we are🤣).

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Looking at the trend of our season, it would seem we’ll find it easier to beat good teams than we would do shit ones anyway.

[Saint_clark]

  On 07/03/2023 at 08:52, Dusic said:

Just been through the predictor and it came out exactly as I wanted it to.

Made sure I picked 3 teams and almost always predicted them to lose. Those 3 ended up being relegated and Saints stayed up.

If anyone needs any help getting a positive outcome from their predictions fire me over a DM.

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Funny, but even when giving our opponents results I didn't think they'd get Saints ended up just scraping to safety in my predictor. It's going to go right to the wire.

[farawaysaint]

It's probably not a bad thing and says something about our performances that despite the fact that we are rubbish loads of people (myself included) are saying "but there's a chance!" 

I appreciate we are rubbish but so are a load of other teams and we have a relatively decent chance of staying up depending on who is the most rubbish until the end of the season. 

[Lee On Solent Saint]

  On 07/03/2023 at 13:58, farawaysaint said:

It's probably not a bad thing and says something about our performances that despite the fact that we are rubbish loads of people (myself included) are saying "but there's a chance!" 

I appreciate we are rubbish but so are a load of other teams and we have a relatively decent chance of staying up depending on who is the most rubbish until the end of the season. 

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Just a massive shame we have been rubbish in the fixtures that we could have expected points from. 

[Highfield Saint]

  On 06/03/2023 at 15:29, JRM said:

A mate sent me this from todays paper, I see Palace haven't won in 9 games (and play Man City this weekend) they are probably fine with points on the board and seem to pick up a few draws but often there is one team who slips down second half of the season. 

Our 2023 form doesn't seem so bad when looking at that 

 

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run that to the end of the season and it's probably 3 from Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds and Everton

[Whitey Grandad]

  On 07/03/2023 at 15:46, Highfield Saint said:

run that to the end of the season and it's probably 3 from Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds and Everton

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Not West Ham?

[bangkoksaint]

[woodsaint1]

Reckon we'll pick up another win or a couple of draws when we least expect it, like this weekend or away to Arsenal. But I've every faith in this team losing those games we need to win - Bournemouth (H), Fulham (H), Palace (H), Brentford (H), Forest (A), West Ham (A) etc. Can see Brighton relegating us with a game to spare and that would be painful

[Suhari]

  On 07/03/2023 at 19:26, bangkoksaint said:

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I'm pretty confident we won't win that number of games this season.

[Highfield Saint]

  On 07/03/2023 at 16:17, Whitey Grandad said:

Not West Ham?

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No - West Ham 2023 form is the same as ours so they would remain above us if you run this form out to the end of the season. The others especially Palace and Leeds are dire 

[Give it to Ron]

According to Times West Ham going for Carrick if sack Moyes big risk can’t see that happening.

[Tamesaint]

We will be fine if we could just play Chelsea and Leicester every week. It's crazy how well over half our points have come from those 2 teams 

[Whitey Grandad]

  On 08/03/2023 at 09:24, Highfield Saint said:

No - West Ham 2023 form is the same as ours so they would remain above us if you run this form out to the end of the season. The others especially Palace and Leeds are dire 

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Fair enough. The Europa League games may distract them though.