Relegation run-in 2022/23

[StrangelyBrown]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

At this stage it's about who can put a few results together - not dictated by crunching numbers by a bunch of stattos. If we win at Leeds things will start looking very different. A team or two above us will go on horrendous runs and find themselves in trouble. All to play for IMO.

[Suhari]

We've been in the shit as deep as this before and survived. It's possible, but difficult.

Have to beat Leeds to have a chance I believe.

[Mr Nimbus]

2 hours ago, CB Fry said:

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

That reminds me I need to cancel my subscription. Just listen to some of their "audio" content should give enough insight on their knowledge.

Massive hypocrites (as most are) too.

"Bet responsibly" whilst the whole show is what's the odds etc etc

[CB Fry]

1 hour ago, Mr Nimbus said:

That reminds me I need to cancel my subscription. Just listen to some of their "audio" content should give enough insight on their knowledge.

Massive hypocrites (as most are) too.

"Bet responsibly" whilst the whole show is what's the odds etc etc

I only listen to one Athletic podcast - Football Cliches - which I do really like and isn't about betting at all. Beyond that I think I am paying £1 a month so for that it's fine. If we get relegated I will definitely cancel as I don't think we will get even the limited coverage we get now.

[CB Fry]

2 hours ago, StrangelyBrown said:

At this stage it's about who can put a few results together - not dictated by crunching numbers by a bunch of stattos. If we win at Leeds things will start looking very different. A team or two above us will go on horrendous runs and find themselves in trouble. All to play for IMO.

I lived through the Le Tiss/Pahars etc great escapes so I know for some the belief that "we will win three games in a row and get out of it" will carry on until there is 3 games left. You don't really need to be a "statto" to predict a team that won last week but still stone bottom will be relegated. 

I admire the optimism, but I think it is entirely possible that yes under Selles our form will improve, but we still go down.

[Mr Nimbus]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

I only listen to one Athletic podcast - Football Cliches - which I do really like and isn't about betting at all. Beyond that I think I am paying £1 a month so for that it's fine. If we get relegated I will definitely cancel as I don't think we will get even the limited coverage we get now.

FC is great. I was more referring to their "football podcast" and its even bled into TFS too now which is a shame.

[Miltonaggro]

6 hours ago, CB Fry said:

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

Worth the subscription fee on its own!

[saintant]

7 hours ago, CB Fry said:

The Athletic have got their boffins to run the numbers and they've got us not only relegated but finishing bottom. 

This is all flaky shit. For a start neither their boffins nor any computer would be clever enough to factor in shock results and there will be some for us and all other relegation rivals. As an easy example the boffins and computer would not have predicted we'd beat Chelsea last week.  A pointless exercise but interesting to a small degree I guess.

[Pamplemousse]

I quite like this site which has a simple run-in analysis

 

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=10

[Dragon_man]

1 hour ago, saintant said:

This is all flaky shit. For a start neither their boffins nor any computer would be clever enough to factor in shock results and there will be some for us and all other relegation rivals. As an easy example the boffins and computer would not have predicted we'd beat Chelsea last week.  A pointless exercise but interesting to a small degree I guess.

But predictors are a lot more accurate with trends than one-off events. Hence the almost certain prediction of relegation. 

We will have a few *great* results before the end of the season. Some above will have *bad runs* and others will also have *great* results. Balance all of that and ... you still have to say we're relegated.

Before The Wolves game I heard on R5 that only 3 teams out of the last 30 in our position had managed to escape the drop in the history of the Premier league. Not sure whether that was due to position or points, but a pretty solid indicator.

[CB Fry]

1 hour ago, saintant said:

This is all flaky shit. For a start neither their boffins nor any computer would be clever enough to factor in shock results and there will be some for us and all other relegation rivals. As an easy example the boffins and computer would not have predicted we'd beat Chelsea last week.  A pointless exercise but interesting to a small degree I guess.

I think the more important fact is we beat Chelsea but we are still bottom - it's a pointless exercise to extrapolate from that one game as it has no more value than us losing against Forest or Wolves or Villa.

[manzo]

For staters, the stats come from fivethirtyeight.com, not The Athletic.

Secondly, their model gives Leeds a 50% chance of beating us, with us having a 25% chance of winning. With Leeds being projected to finish 4 points ahead of us, I imagine that beating them would improve our odds in their model significantly.

As with the hilarious debates about xG and other stats, you don't have to take this model seriously. However, if you were to say to me that you thought we were twice as likely to be relegated as stay up, I'd probably bite your hand off for those odds, given that we felt nailed-on for relegation under our previous messiah.

[coalman]

51 minutes ago, manzo said:

For staters, the stats come from fivethirtyeight.com, not The Athletic.

Secondly, their model gives Leeds a 50% chance of beating us, with us having a 25% chance of winning. With Leeds being projected to finish 4 points ahead of us, I imagine that beating them would improve our odds in their model significantly.

As with the hilarious debates about xG and other stats, you don't have to take this model seriously. However, if you were to say to me that you thought we were twice as likely to be relegated as stay up, I'd probably bite your hand off for those odds, given that we felt nailed-on for relegation under our previous messiah.

Their model gives us those odds. 34% chance of staying up. Which seems about right. Like you say if we beat Leeds that is going to change.

[Eric The Red]

1 hour ago, coalman said:

Their model gives us those odds. 34% chance of staying up. Which seems about right. Like you say if we beat Leeds that is going to change.

Looking at their site this time last week they only gave us a 23% chance of staying up. A win tomorrow surely will see our percentage increase by a similar amount.

[StrangelyBrown]

9 hours ago, CB Fry said:

I lived through the Le Tiss/Pahars etc great escapes so I know for some the belief that "we will win three games in a row and get out of it" will carry on until there is 3 games left. You don't really need to be a "statto" to predict a team that won last week but still stone bottom will be relegated. 

I admire the optimism, but I think it is entirely possible that yes under Selles our form will improve, but we still go down.

I guess a lot depends on what teams around us can do to improve and how good our squad really are - I think we're a lot better than we've shown so far this season and we've got a better squad than Bournemouth, Leeds and Forest.

if we've now got a half decent manager (which I think we have) I think we've got a decent chance of survival.

I might just be being a happy clappy optimist, but having resigned us to relegation under NJ I'm happy in my little bubble of positivity

[sfc4prem]

55 minutes ago, StrangelyBrown said:

I guess a lot depends on what teams around us can do to improve and how good our squad really are - I think we're a lot better than we've shown so far this season and we've got a better squad than Bournemouth, Leeds and Forest.

if we've now got a half decent manager (which I think we have) I think we've got a decent chance of survival.

I might just be being a happy clappy optimist, but having resigned us to relegation under NJ I'm happy in my little bubble of positivity

I'm hoping very much that your bubble stays intact tomorrow!

[Lighthouse]

10 hours ago, CB Fry said:

I lived through the Le Tiss/Pahars etc great escapes so I know for some the belief that "we will win three games in a row and get out of it" will carry on until there is 3 games left. You don't really need to be a "statto" to predict a team that won last week but still stone bottom will be relegated. 

I admire the optimism, but I think it is entirely possible that yes under Selles our form will improve, but we still go down.

I think under Selles we’ll be better than Jones but not as good as Ralph, who was himself a point off safety, albeit with an inferior squad. All things considered I think Jones has done too much damage, right in the period we should have been harvesting points, to stay up.

[Dark Munster]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

I think under Selles we’ll be better than Jones but not as good as Ralph, who was himself a point off safety, albeit with an inferior squad. All things considered I think Jones has done too much damage, right in the period we should have been harvesting points, to stay up.

Light years ahead of Jones, definitely. That doesn't require much.

Ralph? Depends which one, for the early one that's probably true (but the jury is still out), but after he made it clear he was on a path to retirement the results were utter turd, and it appears Selles will be well above that later version of Ralph.

Time will tell. One swallow does not make a summer, and all that.

[Miltonaggro]

We looked dead and buried under Jones, but this season every club from 12th down (currently Palace) could feasibly get dragged into the scrap. When we were annually battling against relegation in the 90s it all seemed to come down to the form and focus of key individual players and a feeling of positive momentum, or at least unity. Starting to feel that for us to escape the drop this time around we are going to need all that in our favour. Having resigned myself to relegation earlier this month and witnessed shite football and off field brain damage this season I am now fully engaged and interested in what Selles can get out of this young side, actually looking forward to games again. Win against Leeds today and it’s probably at least in our hands to an extent, and given the self inflicted injury that Saints this year we couldn’t hope for much more. 

[LiberalCommunist]

The hope is killing me. But like a drug, I want more.  

Another step up the mountain today. No wrong foot placement please. 

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

Win, draw or lose today, the next League game will still be 'massive'. Also, hope Selles focuses on both League and the Cup because if we beat Grimsby, we're only one match away from a Wembley visit.

[SW5 SAINT]

I see the ManU game has now been put back a day, due to ManU Europa league game. However it is now one day nearer our midweek game against Brentford..!

[SotonianWill]

3 hours ago, LiberalCommunist said:

The hope is killing me. But like a drug, I want more.  

 

ummmm

[CB Fry]

We're really proving them boffins wrong and no mistake.

[S-Clarke]

Stick a fork in it methinks.

[Whitey Grandad]

[Berkshire Saint]

Still have to play the top 9 in our last 14 games, we're done. 

[LiberalCommunist]

We've failed against the bottom 9. That's whats killed us.....and Jones!

[Super_Uwe]

Aargh! This bloody football club.

Massive, massive disappointment yesterday. A point would have been a decent return, but to lose in such a crappy game is galling.

With 14 games left, we are now 4 points from safety (effectively 5 points with GD).

However the bottom 8 teams only have 7 points between them. It's still ridiculously tight and will remain so for a while yet.

We need the St Mary's crowd to get right behind the players against Leicester. A draw would be the absolute bare minimum, but we have to win this one really.

We are by no means done for yet.

 

[Saint Fan CaM]

11 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Aargh! This bloody football club.

Massive, massive disappointment yesterday. A point would have been a decent return, but to lose in such a crappy game is galling.

With 14 games left, we are now 4 points from safety (effectively 5 points with GD).

However the bottom 8 teams only have 7 points between them. It's still ridiculously tight and will remain so for a while yet.

We need the St Mary's crowd to get right behind the players against Leicester. A draw would be the absolute bare minimum, but we have to win this one really.

We are by no means done for yet.

 

Hate to rain on your parade, but all the signs clearly point to relegation. We are the worst team in the league…sad but true.

[AlexLaw76]

14 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Aargh! This bloody football club.

Massive, massive disappointment yesterday. A point would have been a decent return, but to lose in such a crappy game is galling.

With 14 games left, we are now 4 points from safety (effectively 5 points with GD).

However the bottom 8 teams only have 7 points between them. It's still ridiculously tight and will remain so for a while yet.

We need the St Mary's crowd to get right behind the players against Leicester. A draw would be the absolute bare minimum, but we have to win this one really.

We are by no means done for yet.

 

Do not mean to be rude, but what f-ing planet are you on?

[LVSaint]

28 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Aargh! This bloody football club.

Massive, massive disappointment yesterday. A point would have been a decent return, but to lose in such a crappy game is galling.

With 14 games left, we are now 4 points from safety (effectively 5 points with GD).

However the bottom 8 teams only have 7 points between them. It's still ridiculously tight and will remain so for a while yet.

We need the St Mary's crowd to get right behind the players against Leicester. A draw would be the absolute bare minimum, but we have to win this one really.

We are by no means done for yet.

 

 

[Super_Uwe]

Good grief, this bloody football club!

What a win. Brings us back in touch with the rest of the relegation battlers.

Next up Man U away. A free hit for us really, anything there would be a bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OnceaSaintalwaysaSaint]

Before yesterday, I reckoned needing 6 wins to have a chance of staying up. Now it's 5. Of the next 5 League games, if we only win 1 (W.Ham away or Brentford home), we'll still be in the reckoning - it's the one pointers that kill you.

[obelisk]

The maths show that if Saints maintain their season form so far across the remaining fixtures then they'll amass the grand total of 32 points or thereabouts. I think that shows the size of the task ahead and the improvement required. Not impossible but it'll be very difficult.

Edited 5 March, 2023 by obelisk
fat finger

[Saint_clark]

5 minutes ago, obelisk said:

The maths show that if Saints maintain their season form so far across the remaining fixtures then they'll amass the grand total of 32 point or thereabouts. I think that shows the size of the task ahead and the improvement required. Not impossible but it'll be very difficult.

I have us losing to United and beating Spurs in the predictor to climb out of the relegation zone...

[OttawaSaint]

I guess another way of looking at it we have 13 games left and if we can't get better than 1pt per game then we deserve to go down. 

Come on Saints, let's have another great escape to remember!!!

[Daft Kerplunk]

3 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

I guess another way of looking at it we have 13 games left and if we can't get better than 1pt per game then we deserve to go down. 

Come on Saints, let's have another great escape to remember!!!

Looking at the fixtures, we’ve got 3 games against current relegation rivals, the rest against teams in the top half or comfortably mid table, plus every team going for the top 4 or European places including 3 going for the title. It’s not going to be easy, and could be a great escape up there with the best. 

[Saint_clark]

Did the predictor for the rest of the season, felt I was being pretty realistic, ended up with this; 

12		Leicester City	38	12	7	19	52:58	-6	43
13		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	12	7	19	30:48	-18	43
14		Nottingham Forest	38	9	14	15	33:64	-31	41
15		West Ham United	38	9	9	20	35:55	-20	36
16		Southampton FC	38	10	5	23	32:67	-35	35
17		Leeds United	38	8	10	20	43:66	-23	34
18		Everton FC	38	9	7	22	28:60	-32	34
19		Crystal Palace	38	7	12	19	33:59	-26	33
20		AFC Bournemouth	38	6	8	24	30:76	-46	26

 

Palace with a complete collapse at the end of the season!

So 4 wins and 2 draws or 3 wins and 5 draws, with 13 games left. A lot to ask...but I feel I was also generous to the teams around us in the results they'd get. West Ham with 3 wins and 4 draws, Leeds with 3 and 3, Everton with 4 wins...

[OttawaSaint]

1 minute ago, Saint_clark said:

Did the predictor for the rest of the season, felt I was being pretty realistic, ended up with this; 

12		Leicester City	38	12	7	19	52:58	-6	43
13		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	12	7	19	30:48	-18	43
14		Nottingham Forest	38	9	14	15	33:64	-31	41
15		West Ham United	38	9	9	20	35:55	-20	36
16		Southampton FC	38	10	5	23	32:67	-35	35
17		Leeds United	38	8	10	20	43:66	-23	34
18		Everton FC	38	9	7	22	28:60	-32	34
19		Crystal Palace	38	7	12	19	33:59	-26	33
20		AFC Bournemouth	38	6	8	24	30:76	-46	26

 

Palace with a complete collapse at the end of the season!

So 4 wins and 2 draws or 3 wins and 5 draws, with 13 games left. A lot to ask...but I feel I was also generous to the teams around us in the results they'd get. West Ham with 3 wins and 4 draws, Leeds with 3 and 3, Everton with 4 wins...

I'd bite your hand off for that right now! Come on Saints! Let's do this!

[Saint_clark]

Premier League » Table calculator (worldfootball.net)

 

There's the predictor for anyone who wants to have a go. Interested to see others results.

(Be sure to go back to previous game weeks and do the games in hand). 

Edited 5 March, 2023 by Saint_clark

[obelisk]

Current form under Selles is 2 points a game. Keep that up (unlikely I know) and we'll stroll to the line with 47 points. 😇

[badgerx16]

Moyes and Brenda both saying they need 40 points - I reckon 35 will scrape through, given the number of teams in the soup.

[Saint_clark]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

Moyes and Brenda both saying they need 40 points - I reckon 35 will scrape through, given the number of teams in the soup.

Yeah, 40 points has only been needed once since 2003. More often that 36 is enough. 

[wadesmith]

14 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Did the predictor for the rest of the season, felt I was being pretty realistic, ended up with this; 

12		Leicester City	38	12	7	19	52:58	-6	43
13		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	12	7	19	30:48	-18	43
14		Nottingham Forest	38	9	14	15	33:64	-31	41
15		West Ham United	38	9	9	20	35:55	-20	36
16		Southampton FC	38	10	5	23	32:67	-35	35
17		Leeds United	38	8	10	20	43:66	-23	34
18		Everton FC	38	9	7	22	28:60	-32	34
19		Crystal Palace	38	7	12	19	33:59	-26	33
20		AFC Bournemouth	38	6	8	24	30:76	-46	26

 

Palace with a complete collapse at the end of the season!

So 4 wins and 2 draws or 3 wins and 5 draws, with 13 games left. A lot to ask...but I feel I was also generous to the teams around us in the results they'd get. West Ham with 3 wins and 4 draws, Leeds with 3 and 3, Everton with 4 wins...

I’m slightly suprised you’ve got Palace  only picking up another 6 points when they’re home to Everton, West Ham, Bournemouth, Forest Away to Ourselves, Leeds & Fulham. I know some of those teams will be scrapping , but that looks fairly gentle.

[Saint_clark]

23 minutes ago, wadesmith said:

I’m slightly suprised you’ve got Palace  only picking up another 6 points when they’re home to Everton, West Ham, Bournemouth, Forest Away to Ourselves, Leeds & Fulham. I know some of those teams will be scrapping , but that looks fairly gentle.

Like I said, I was being generous to the other teams around us by giving them results I didn't really expect them to get. If Palace wins those games against the teams around us then they all end up worse off. 

[wadesmith]

6 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Like I said, I was being generous to the other teams around us by giving them results I didn't really expect them to get. If Palace wins those games against the teams around us then they all end up worse off. 

Ok, get your point..but surely you’ve got to be realistic, otherwise it seems a bit meaningless.It’s more like a predictive table of results that I don’t necessarily think will happen? I’m probably taking this a bit too seriously 😆 

[Saint_clark]

12 minutes ago, wadesmith said:

Ok, get your point..but surely you’ve got to be realistic, otherwise it seems a bit meaningless.It’s more like a predictive table of results that I don’t necessarily think will happen? I’m probably taking this a bit too seriously 😆 

The point was I was trying to be realistic with Saints and generous to our opposition, so that if we picked up less points in reality then there would hopefully be more wiggle room as our rivals were likely to pick up less points too...if that makes sense? If I didn't give our rivals the odd win I didn't think they'd get, then we'd have been clear by about 5 or 6 points. 

And yes, we absolutely are taking this too seriously! 

Edited 5 March, 2023 by Saint_clark

[Baird of the land]

Have us on a knife edge goal difference wise.

 

 

 

Edited 5 March, 2023 by Baird of the land

[Nolan]

Not going to think of it any other way except we need 5 more wins.

We only have 4 games left against bottom half clubs so it's an uphill struggle.

We need to keep momentum.

Edited 5 March, 2023 by Nolan