Summary from a Luton fan

[malcolm waldron]

Quote

On 10/11/2022 at 09:41, Bad Wolf said:

Here's a summary of our new manager from a Luton supporter that I found on Reddit. I thought it deserved it's own thread since this must have taken him ages to write up and the effort he's put in here is incredible...

 

Hi guys. On another thread I mentioned writing a post about what Nathan Jones has done to Luton Town since he first came in early 2016, including his tactics, recruitment policies, and player development strategies. While I can't say NJ is the perfect manager, he is certainly a capable tactician, and is well aware of his own shortcomings as well as being able to stick to a tight budget. This is a much longer post than I anticipated so the last section acts as a TL:DR so just scroll to that if you're short of time or can't be bothered to read the rest.

His Time at Luton

I think it's important to talk about his whole, albeit relatively short, managerial career in order to understand more about him both as a coach and as a person. In a nutshell, NJ took a team floundering in mid-table of League Two, to a Championship Play-off semi-final, whilst working with the smallest budget in the second tier. That's the real headline, but what's more impressive is the long-term culture transformation he instilled along the way.

NJ took over with the club in 15th in League Two, and slowly but surely slipping back to non-league where we'd been just two seasons prior. His only managerial experience to date was a brief stint as a caretaker at then-Championship Brighton & Hove Albion, so some questions were understandably asked of the board as to why we've recruited a manager with no experience at this level to steer us from danger - not a dissimilar situation to what you guys find yourself in. The less old-fashioned of us, however, saw an extremely ambitious man who lives and breathes football.

The squad at the time was full of lower-league unambitious journeymen with a few very overpaid luxury players such as Craig Mackail-Smith, Josh McQuoid, and Danny Green. NJ solidified us in the last half of the season, finishing a respectable 11th place finish. The following summer, we said goodbye to the majority of the players that lifted the club from non-league obscurity, as NJ brutally cleared the squad of the old heads that were not fit for a club that he said "will be back in the Championship in a few years". Our fans were upset and confused by some, as fan favourites Alex Lawless, Paul Benson, Matt Robinson (now grime artist Kamakaze), and Jake Howells were released. Doubters were soon silenced when NJ brought in, among others, three excellent additions in Glen Rea (still with us), Alan Sheehan (now a first team coach), and club hero Danny Hylton. We finished 4th, ending the season with a heart-breaking play-off loss to Blackpool.

It was clear now, after 18 months what NJ was doing. The team was now playing a high-pressing, intense style of football, with lots of goals while being relatively solid too. Our young players were also playing very well, handing James Justin his debut, with ex-Hammers Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu and Dan Potts, who are both first-team players for us 5 years later, improving game-by-game. He further enhanced the squad with some extremely shrewd Moneyball-esque signings in future top-scorer James Collins and marauding fullback Jack Stacey, who we'd sell to Bournemouth a few years later for many millions.

Nothing so far is TOO remarkable, and you might be wondering why I'm telling you all this, but stick with me as it will all tie in. Our first season in League One went on to be our last, with the club achieving back-to-back promotion by absolutely walking the league. Why? A combination of more outstanding recruitment and tactics from NJ. He'd sign five players, who all played a crucial part, and prove to be some of the most important players, in our modern history: Matty Pearson and Sonny Bradley forged the best centre back partnership I've ever seen us have with the latter still our captain, Andy Shinnie, a Championship-level number 10 dubbed "Shinniesta" (enough said), George Moncur, who scored an incredible late free kick to beat Portsmouth (I know how you feel about them) 3-2 in what turned out to be our turning-point game, and Kazenga LuaLua whose importance will be mentioned later.

It is worth mentioning that NJ left for Stoke about halfway through this season, but his philosophy was so ingrained in the players that our caretaker manager and club icon Mick Harford had very little actual management to do - his words not mine - as the team walked to the League One title at the first time of asking, scoring 90 goals and not losing a single home game. But what were these tactics and philosophies? Now this is where it becomes relevant to Southampton, and I'll talk more about his second stint with us later. Also, hopefully now you've learned that NJ's eye for talent, both in terms of recruitment and getting the most out of a player, is exceptional.

Jones' Beloved Diamond

NJ's favourite tactic at his first stint with us was a 4-4-2 diamond, which relied very heavily on capable fullbacks, as James Justin and Jack Stacey's future price tags would prove. First, I'll show you how we lined up and how I imagine he'd line you up with it moving forward, but bear in mind that I am not 100% sure he'll play this as it didn't work at Stoke and he hasn't played it much with us in the Championship (he says our budget forces us to play a back 3). We played:

Shea

Stacey - Pearson - Bradley - Justin

Rea

Mpanzu - Berry

Lee

Cornick - Collins

If I had to translate that with your players, entirely like-for-like purely in terms of position, profile, and play-style, it would be:

Bazunu

Livramento - Bella-Kotchap - Salisu - Larios

Maitland-Niles

Lavia - Ward-Prowse

Aribo

A. Amrstrong - Adams

The tactic really lies with the ability of the single defensive midfielder to sit deep and help the centre backs out as much as possible while the full backs push forward, essentially creating a sort of 3-5-2. Larios and Livramento would be perfect for NJ, and he'd relish the chance to develop them further. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Djenepo on the left-hand side as he likes an inverted wing back occasionally. Walker-Peters would also be absolutely fine either side of that back four. Maitland-Niles, while not flashy, would do a fine job sweeping up loose midfield balls and dropping between centre backs.

In terms of advanced midfielders, the key in distribution. Diagonal balls, internal triangles, arriving late into the area... these are all things NJ would require from the three in front of the defensive midfielder. In my opinion, Ward-Prowse and Lavia are two standouts in your team, and would be absolutely perfectly suited to this system. An attacking midfielder with luxury traits and flair, who can arrive well for chances in the box, is what is needed too, and Aribo ticks those boxes well.

Strikers are going to be your most difficult spot to fill, in my opinion. In this particular formation, NJ would need a pure poacher (your version of Collins), but I don't think you have anyone. For now, Adams or maybe Mara could do a job but long term he'll look to buy a taller striker. Otherwise, he'll play a greyhound-like player to press defenders and make runs in the channels - enter Adam Armstrong. He isn't the best goal scorer at Premier League level, but neither is Cornick for us but he was very important.

Jones will need time to implement anything close to the success we had with this tactic, but the basic idea is very simple, and with the players you have in your squad, he's bound to make something work whether it's this or another tactic I'll go through soon.

The Elephant in the Room

NJ had two seasons (well, technically 1.5) of success with his diamond, achieving automatic promotion both times. However, he couldn't get it to work at Stoke City, which he know blames on the attitude of the players he had at his disposal and the general atmosphere at the club. He clearly didn't have time to bring in the players he wanted. It's hard to defend his time at Stoke, but I truly believe his time there is misunderstood, and the failure overstated.

NJ left us in a promotion spot in January 2019 for Stoke, who offered him a huge financial package that he'd have been stupid to turn down. At the time, our board were very angry with the way both Stoke and NJ went about the deal, something that they've praised about the Saints' approach thus far. NJ said he regrets the decision and has grown as a person as a result, vowing to never repeat the same mistake. This suggests two things which I think are valuable to you lot: 1) he will only leave for a convincing and ambitious project, reinforced by his post-match interview last night; and 2) his professionalism and cooperation with the club hierarchy has grown on a personal level, which is something any Luton fan can anecdotally attest to as well. He clearly thinks the board at Southampton have a clear vision in mind and will give him the time that Stoke didn't, otherwise he wouldn't be entertaining the proposition.

At Stoke, NJ's team struggled for goals, and they drew most of their games. They weren't as bad as people make out, and even if they were, it was hardly NJ's fault, evident by the failures of their managers since. The Stoke job is a poisoned chalice right now, and has been since their relegation from the Premier League. I implore you guys to not get too hung up on that blip in his career, for your own sake and his.

The Great Escape and the Dawn of the Back Five

Our first season back in the Championship was a disaster, replacing Nathan Jones with Graeme Jones, but he was nothing like his namesake. He was stubborn and moody, tactically over-ambitious, awful with both the players, fans, and the media, terrible with recruitment, and was on course to drag us right back down again. He, unlike his predecessor, couldn't translate his coaching skills into a managerial role.

When Covid-19 struck, so did we, sacking Graeme Jones and bringing back NJ to the dismay of many of our fans. Luckily for NJ, the lockdown meant the fans couldn't get on his back as we completed what we call the "Great Escape". NJ had nine games to keep us up, with us sitting five points adrift on his return. Not only did he do so, losing just one game in this time, we actually finished a respectable 19th. NJ reinstated his remaining League One favourites who Graeme Jones had frozen out, including Elliot Lee, Luke Berry, and Kazenga LuaLua who I mentioned earlier and who scored a screamer against Hull which essentially kept us in the league. In fact, only one of the 12 goals we scored in the escape was by a player NJ DIDN'T sign (Callum McManaman).

NJ had come back and relit the fire that he himself put out. The fans were back on his side, while the board the players never even left his side. This is something you'll learn, he has a knack of getting the players to die for him. He says it all the time in his interviews - our squad will do whatever is necessary to win, whether it's playing whilst unfit or playing out of position, it's just the atmosphere he creates within the squad. It's so evident because we still have some of the League Two signings in our squad today, playing way beyond their natural level through sheer effort and determination. Fans of other clubs in the league refer to us as "passion merchants" all the time.

This isn't the only reason we punch above out weight, though. A lot of it is down to NJ's new favourite tactic which is well-suited to underdogs where raw talent won't suffice - a similar situation to what you guys find yourselves in this season. Brace yourselves... it's a route one back five. Yep, a total departure from the free-flowing diamond mentioned earlier. But it's a testament to NJ's versatility and willingness to try whatever it takes to get results. In truth, it's what I imagine he'll initially set up with while you're in a relegation scrap in order to pick up the odd point against the bigger sides. It works for us, trust me. Here's what we played last season, at its peak:

Steer

Burke - Bradley - Naismith

Bree - Mpanzu - Lansbury - Campbell - Bell

Cornick - Adebayo

Seems simple, but it isn't really. It's lopsided, with the right-hand side pushing a lot further forward than the left. The left centre back is required to have excellent long ball-playing ability, something we've lacked since we lost Naismith. The right wing back and right centre back will both step forward while the left wing back supports the defenders. The middle central midfielder will typically sit deep whilst the other two essentially free-roam, collecting loose balls and playing them forward for Adebayo to knock down. Simple on paper, but require insane levels of fitness in practice, which I don't think will be a problem for you as your squad seems fit enough for sure. Here's how I think it translates:

Bazunu

Bella-Kotchap - Caleta-Car - Salisu

Livramento - Lavia - Ward-Prowse - Aribo - Perraud

Adams - *new striker*

NJ will buy a tall striker in the next available opportunity. He really needs someone 6'2"+ to knock it down in this system, and frankly I'm not sure you've got anyone cut out for it currently. I've put Perraud in as he is more physical than Larios. I've also got Ward-Prowse sitting deep, essentially playing like a deep-lying playmaker. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall played that role for us two season ago, so think how he plays at Leicester for comparison.

You may have noticed a lack of wingers in both formations, and you'd be correct to have done. He doesn't like them, frankly. Any winger you have will be converted to either a striker, a midfielder, or a fullback, else they'll be gone. I can see him playing Elyounoussi, S. Armstrong, and Edozie as attacking midfielders to some capacity, while Djenepo would make a good wing back under NJ, but he'll have no use for Walcott or Tella when he returns.

In All, This is What to Expect (TL:DR)

Right, so that's his tactics done and why he came to play them, so here is some more quickfire what to expect:

Positives:

Will get the most out of players already at the club as long as they are humble enough to be played in unconventional roles

Will relish the opportunity to work with and improve raw talents like Small, Larios, Mara, Livramento, and Smallbone in particular (as these guys' profiles resemble what he'll want in his ideal diamond tactic)

Will relay as much passion as the fans give him, unequivocally

Will adapt tactics both in game and long-term if it isn't working - something he's learned from his notoriously stubborn tenure at Stoke

Will recruit outstandingly if given leeway and freedom in the market - signings that seem unusual tend to turn out the best.

Will improve the ambition of the squad if they buy into his vision.

Negatives:

Media-handling; the rest of the league's fans will loathe him, but you'll love him for it as it creates a great us-against-the-world mentality which ultimately wins game

Has his favourites; rewarding loyalty is often a double-edged sword and is sometimes hesitant to acknowledge when a good servant is in bad form. He's also very data driven so will continue to play players who aren't meeting the eye-test or pleasing fans if their data is okay

He'll sell your wingers if they can't prove to be adaptable to his full back-based systems

Youth development is something he doesn't really consider that much, though this might be because our academy is years behind the first team. He considers 23 and 24 year olds as "youngsters" and will often only give them odd minutes.

Doesn't take the domestic cups seriously, though he might at a club that actually has a chance of progressing past the early rounds like Southampton have.

Sorry for the long post guys but I hope it gives you a good understanding as to why he's absolutely worshipped at Luton Town. He's brought great success to us while galvanising the fan base and making us believe we can be a serious club again. He also fixed us financially and instilled a permanent transfer policy of developing under-utilised raw talent and developing them. Please give him a chance, he's a difficult character but the guy bleeds passion and will die for Southampton to do well, no matter the adversity. Thanks for reading and good luck for the season, we'll all be rooting for you from Bedfordshire.

EDIT: How could I forget his PowerPoints?! When he wants a player, he invited them to the training ground and shows them a PowerPoint presentation about where the club will be in x amount of years, and a detailed plan for their individual development. It's often joked about, but it really works and many of our signings have credited his presentations as the main reason they signed!

EDIT 2: Cheers for the comments guys, I'm glad I've reassured some of you that the appointment is better than it may seem. Please take this post with a pinch of salt though, he might surprise us and change it up completely. He may also fail miserably, I'm not a mystic just a fan. Also, please stop awarding this post, it's appreciated but really not necessary. I'm not even sure what they mean but apparently they cost money so please don't do that!

 

Thought it was worth this having a bump back up again. 

More convinced than ever that this is either direct from NJ himself or from one of his team on his behalf.  Knowing what we now know after EIGHT weeks of him being here a lot of it is fascinating (to me at least) - particularly a re-read of why the Stoke failure is now recognised as allegedly being down to the players' attitudes and the general atmosphere of the club.   I suspect we might be hearing that again soon - and while there may be an element of truth in that, for £4M a year it should be something a capable, top level coach can swiftly address and start to put right.

So ultimately many of the issues we now face were hiding in plain sight all along.....

[sfc4prem]

2 hours ago, malcolm waldron said:

Thought it was worth this having a bump back up again. 

More convinced than ever that this is either direct from NJ himself or from one of his team on his behalf.  Knowing what we now know after EIGHT weeks of him being here a lot of it is fascinating (to me at least) - particularly a re-read of why the Stoke failure is now recognised as allegedly being down to the players' attitudes and the general atmosphere of the club.   I suspect we might be hearing that again soon - and while there may be an element of truth in that, for £4M a year it should be something a capable, top level coach can swiftly address and start to put right.

So ultimately many of the issues we now face were hiding in plain sight all along.....

Its got to be one of the most small-time, tin-pot, Mickey-Mouse behaviour I have ever seen from a professional football manager. Disgraceful.