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January 2023 Transfer Window

mcbendy

By mcbendy
in The Saints

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Saint_clark

Saint_clark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 11:45, Midlandsaint said:

Adams has also missed multiple easy chances costing us points (see wolves), chances that a half decent striker should be putting away and would have taken them to 10+ goals!

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Every striker, decent, half decent or world class, misses chances. If you're insinuating that one of the players I listed would be in double figures if they'd played for us this season and had Adams chances I think you're talking nonsense. 

Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 12:07, Saint_clark said:

Every striker, decent, half decent or world class, misses chances. If you're insinuating that one of the players I listed would be in double figures if they'd played for us this season and had Adams chances I think you're talking nonsense. 

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I wonder how many goals Nunez would have got if he had played for us instead of Adams.

  • Like 2
Saint86

Saint86

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 12/01/2023 at 11:56, tajjuk said:

Adams is joint 6th for big chances missed with 9.  Behind Jesus, Toney, Salah, Haaland and Nunez.  Not sure what defines a 'big chance' but there you go, most of those players will generally be getting a lot more chances than us.

For example Che has had only 34 shots in total, Haaland, Nunez, Salah and Jesus have all had 50 or more.  They have all had more than 20 shots on target as well, Che has only had 13.

 

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If only there was an averaged set of stats for how many goals a player should score, and how many goals they do score. Something that takes out specific fan biases and just compares them to their peers. Maybe something like xG and an xG conversion rate? ðŸ˜‹ Nonsense to a lot of fans on here i know!?! ðŸ™ˆ

But, if you do look at Che's xG vs goal scored, he's 19th in the league for xG per 90min (0.36), with 5.4 total xG for the season, and he has only scored 4 against that. An xG conversion rate of 0.74.

He does also have an expected assists (xA) stat of 2 for the season... (high i know) and only 1 assist against that. But it seems unfair to hold him accountable for the finishing of others...

Just for comparison, Danny Ings has 4.47xG for the season and has scored 6 for a xG conversion rate of 1.3 - significantly better than Che's. His xG per 90 is 0.54 (down to villa/saints more than ings/che i would suggest).

Some others for comparison's sake:

Calvert Lewin has 0.3xG per 90, 1.68xG for the season, 1 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.59.

Scamacca has 0.24xG per 90, 2.48xG for the season, 3 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.2

Haaland has 1.07xG per 90 (🤣), 15.81xG for the season, 21 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.32.

Kane has 0.67xG per 90, 11.98xG for the season, 15 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.25

Awoniyi has 0.61 xG per 90, 4.96xG for the season, 4 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.8

So in summary, of the strikers i've just randomly picked out, the only one with worse finishing stats for this season is DCL. Although, i am just presenting the data and I acknowledge that he offers more than just his finishing. As usual, Ings stands out as far and away one of the best finishers in the league.

So i guess what we can take from all of that, is that if Che was in City's team and had the same movement and chemistry as haaland, we would expect him to have scored circa 11-12goals, rather than Haaland's 21 ðŸ˜­ðŸ˜…

For the hell of it Adam Armstrong:
AA has 0.12 xG per 90, 1.23xG for the season, 1 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 0.81, but clearly down to a small sample size on the chances front.

Edit, somehow forgot to include Openda ðŸ™ˆ - although his stats should be caveated by considering Ligue 1 is a weaker league.

Openda has 0.65xG per 90, 8.31xG for the season, 9 goals scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.08.  Young, hungry, and guaranteed to improve, hates pompey allegedly, and was available for less than £10m smackeroos in the summer ðŸ˜‹

Also, Ligue 1 data for Mara (26 games):

Mara had 0.51 xG per 90, 5.03xG for the season, 6 goal scored, and an xG conversion rate of 1.19 - Which is somewhat promising.

https://understat.com/player/7700

Edited by Saint86
  • Like 3
Ex Lion Tamer

Ex Lion Tamer

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 11:14, DT said:

'Facilitating forward' = terrible at actually scoring goals. Decided drop in quality/possession when he came on.

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I've defended Adams on the basis of him playing alongside a goalscoring striker but if we're moving to one up front then i think he needs to be a bench player

  • Like 1
Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 12:09, Saint Garrett said:

Hopefully we got a sell on %

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that would be a good deal. Get a percentage out of every transfer until a player's career is over. Especially ff that player is someone like Christian Vierri that is constantly moving for £40m

Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 14:09, Chez said:

that would be a good deal. Get a percentage out of every transfer until a player's career is over. Especially ff that player is someone like Christian Vierri that is constantly moving for £40m

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Didn't he just go from us to Nice? 

  • Like 1
Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 14:18, Wsaint said:

Yup Fulham was a loan. I recall if they stayed up there was an obligation to buy?

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Ah yes! of course.

Given he basically went for bugger all, I would expect us to have some kind of kickback even if its % of profit or something. Probably minimal regardless.

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 14:18, Wsaint said:

Yup Fulham was a loan. I recall if they stayed up there was an obligation to buy?

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Correct, although I’m pretty sure ML could’ve still refused to stay 

derry

derry

Posted
Posted

Mara looked a lot better playing as the front striker. He took his goal well. I actually think Adams wouldn't have scored that. He also put away clinically a marginally offside chance in an early season game that was disallowed but it was similar to most of those one on one against the keeper that Adams misses. Pending a goalscoring striker we could do a lot worse than give him his head there.

  • Like 5
Saint Keef

Saint Keef

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 15:15, derry said:

Mara looked a lot better playing as the front striker. He took his goal well. I actually think Adams wouldn't have scored that. He also put away clinically a marginally offside chance in an early season game that was disallowed but it was similar to most of those one on one against the keeper that Adams misses. Pending a goalscoring striker we could do a lot worse than give him his head there.

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Agree. I got the impression Ralph didn't seem to warm to Mara, or maybe vice-versa, but who knows, a new manager, a different style,  new confidence in the player, may just be the boost he needed. I do hope so. However, I just hope the club don't take their eye off the ball in respect of getting a proven striker in, thinking that based on one (admittedly very well taken) goal, Mara is our ready-made answer.  Here's to a few more goals from him though!

  • Like 2
saintwbu

saintwbu

Posted
Posted

Didn’t J-Rod have hamstring issues after his ACL, down to over compensating on the other leg? Wonder if it’s quite common after such a big trauma to one part of the body

saintsdan

saintsdan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 15:15, derry said:

Mara looked a lot better playing as the front striker. He took his goal well. I actually think Adams wouldn't have scored that. He also put away clinically a marginally offside chance in an early season game that was disallowed but it was similar to most of those one on one against the keeper that Adams misses. Pending a goalscoring striker we could do a lot worse than give him his head there.

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He certainly did take it well and I agree Che wouldn't have scored it.  Forget the finish, Che wouldn't have that run across the centre back.

Was an excellent striker's goal.

  • Like 6
tajjuk

tajjuk

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 15:15, derry said:

Mara looked a lot better playing as the front striker. He took his goal well. I actually think Adams wouldn't have scored that. He also put away clinically a marginally offside chance in an early season game that was disallowed but it was similar to most of those one on one against the keeper that Adams misses. Pending a goalscoring striker we could do a lot worse than give him his head there.

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Was a very good finish, as someone pointed out in the match thread it was very similar to training exercise goal he scored in the youtube vid where Nathan Jones is wearing a microphone, so the sort of thing they seem to have been practicing. 

The run was also key as well, he comes from behind Walker on his blind side then darts back across him. He also had a nice control for an early chance and then spun but mishit the shot on the turn with his left foot. 

He seems to have a bit more clever movement about him, quite often Che doesn't get in the right places IMO, like the offside goal he was miles off when he didn't need to be and when KWP dragged that one late across the box, Che was on his heels. I feel a more natural goalscorer might have got something on that. 

IIRC when we signed Mara he was noted for outscoring his XG for a bad Bordeaux side, he didn't have a lot of full games but scored a decent amount of goals for them from not a huge amount of minutes last year. 

  • Like 1
revolution saint

revolution saint

Posted
Posted

Apparently James Bree can also play as a right sided CB in a back 3 (although he's only 5ft 8") so guess that versatility might be useful.  Not seen anything of him but appears to be a good crosser according to some.

Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 15:12, SuperSAINT said:

 

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blast, but as I think was mentioned, its not an injury that you just waltz back from. I know people were hopeful or seeing him in this new year, but I never expected him to play at all this season. 

Can we reignite our interest in Issa Kabore or has he already skipped beyond us by going on loan to Marseilles?

 

Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 17:36, revolution saint said:

Apparently James Bree can also play as a right sided CB in a back 3 (although he's only 5ft 8") so guess that versatility might be useful.  Not seen anything of him but appears to be a good crosser according to some.

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Jones' Paul Telfer?

  • Haha 1
Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 16:48, Marsdinho said:

Were probably looking at a right back, so we can sell KWP this window?

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We're not selling KWP in this window. No chance. We're looking at a right back, because we are currently playing Lyanco there - admittedly he's done a pretty damn good job in the last two games. Full back needs to be a strength. Jones' successful teams have had fullbacks bombing up and down. Makes sense to strengthen if he doesn't rate AMN, Larios and Perraud.  

Chez

Chez

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 18:00, davefizzy14 said:

Djed Spence on a six month loan deal would be good.

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Loved that wing back role at Forest.

I suggested Wan-Bissaka before the window opened, but if he was available you'd imagine Palace would try to get hi back like they did Zaha. 

Bad Wolf

Bad Wolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 15:47, saintwbu said:

Didn’t J-Rod have hamstring issues after his ACL, down to over compensating on the other leg? Wonder if it’s quite common after such a big trauma to one part of the body

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His was a foot injury wasn't it?

woodsaint1

woodsaint1

Posted
Posted

Never even heard of this guy, but just shows that there needs to be a realisation by SR that this is the kind of money which needs to be forked out for a striker in January windows. Haggling around the 18-20 million mark isnt going to get it done

  • Like 1
Saint_clark

Saint_clark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/01/2023 at 18:04, Chez said:

Loved that wing back role at Forest.

I suggested Wan-Bissaka before the window opened, but if he was available you'd imagine Palace would try to get hi back like they did Zaha. 

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Hasn't wan bissaka been quite favoured by Ten Haag this season? I don't think he'd be available anymore.

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