Is this the season we cannot rely on 3 other teams to be worse than us?

[Sammy_Saint]

After watching the opening 3 game weeks of the premier league this season, the results we've seen, the terrific performances of some teams, is there is a clear overall rise in the level and quality in the traditional 'best of the rest' teams in the premier league? Could this be the season where we cannot rely on, as we have for the past 3 seasons, that there will be 3 worse teams than us?

Now I'm very much the optimist, glass half full supporter, but lets face it, last season, Norwich, Watford, Burnley, Leeds and Everton were just as bad, if not worse than us (thank god after we imploded) 

If you look at 20/21 we were again lucky that we had Fulham, WBA, Sheff Utd and Burnley who were trash. 

I guess my point is this;

Whilst we are only 3 matches in, the newly promoted teams (bar Bournemouth) look very decent, Fulham especially. I think Forest will struggle just due to the massive sea change in personnel there. The teams we would normally be matching ourselves with;  Leeds (were superb yesterday), Brighton (are flying), Palace and Brentford (both look good), Newcastle (are a changed beast) and Villa (will be fine despite palace beating them) are arguably as good if not better than us and have recruited well. Could we see Wolves and Leicester struggle? I think it could be a much closer division 18th-9th with many teams now I feel possessing quality throughout their squads. Is it the end of the traditional top 6/7 teams, 8-10 similar teams and 4-3 woeful teams? If this is the case, how and where do Saints end up?! What does everyone think?

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Sammy_Saint said:

After watching the opening 3 game weeks of the premier league this season, the results we've seen, the terrific performances of some teams, is there is a clear overall rise in the level and quality in the traditional 'best of the rest' teams in the premier league? Could this be the season where we cannot rely on, as we have for the past 3 seasons, that there will be 3 worse teams than us?

Now I'm very much the optimist, glass half full supporter, but lets face it, last season, Norwich, Watford, Burnley, Leeds and Everton were just as bad, if not worse than us (thank god after we imploded) 

If you look at 20/21 we were again lucky that we had Fulham, WBA, Sheff Utd and Burnley who were trash. 

I guess my point is this;

Whilst we are only 3 matches in, the newly promoted teams (bar Bournemouth) look very decent, Fulham especially. I think Forest will struggle just due to the massive sea change in personnel there. The teams we would normally be matching ourselves with;  Leeds (were superb yesterday), Brighton (are flying), Palace and Brentford (both look good), Newcastle (are a changed beast) and Villa (will be fine despite palace beating them) are arguably as good if not better than us and have recruited well. Could we see Wolves and Leicester struggle? I think it could be a much closer division 18th-9th with many teams now I feel possessing quality throughout their squads. Is it the end of the traditional top 6/7 teams, 8-10 similar teams and 4-3 woeful teams? If this is the case, how and where do Saints end up?! What does everyone think?

When you say 'bar Bournemouth', you have seen their opening fixtures, right?

[Sammy_Saint]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

When you say 'bar Bournemouth', you have seen their opening fixtures, right?

Yeah, but still nice to see them struggle. Always had a soft spot for them until they behaved like T@*%s at SMS when they beat us. They take up a spot for a club that should be in the Premier league IMO. 

 

Their September and October Fixtures are much 'nicer' so lets see. 

[tajjuk]

You just can’t make predictions like this after 3 games. 
 

Historically loads of promoted teams have started well and then been awful for most of the season. Who knows how Forests collection of mercenaries will fair when a few results don’t go their way back to back. West Ham battered them, poor finishing and bad luck got them that win. 
 

Palace under De Boer didn’t pick up any points in their first 7 games but stayed up comfortably a few years back. Burnley in recent years started awfully but most of the time turned it around. 
 

Still wouldn’t be surprised if at least two if not all 3 promoted teams went down. 

[S-Clarke]

Like Tajjuk has said, you can't judge anyone yet.

There are so many changes yet to happen with regards to transfers in and out which could make or shape teams. For one it's impossible to predcit how Forest will do, these new signings could make them a super team, or they could blow up. Impossible to judge yet.

10-12 games will give you a fairer idea of what's what in my opinion, but even then stuff can still change. How teams react to the World Cup in the middle of this season is also unpredictable. Teams could flourish from the gap (similar to how we did in lockdown), or teams could come back with players fatigued/injured and it could bomb the rest of the season.

Lots of weeks to go until we can say what's what with any side.

[Sammy_Saint]

4 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Like Tajjuk has said, you can't judge anyone yet.

There are so many changes yet to happen with regards to transfers in and out which could make or shape teams. For one it's impossible to predcit how Forest will do, these new signings could make them a super team, or they could blow up. Impossible to judge yet.

10-12 games will give you a fairer idea of what's what in my opinion, but even then stuff can still change. How teams react to the World Cup in the middle of this season is also unpredictable. Teams could flourish from the gap (similar to how we did in lockdown), or teams could come back with players fatigued/injured and it could bomb the rest of the season.

Lots of weeks to go until we can say what's what with any side.

Yeah agree, was just a discussion starter, I cant remember a start to a season where the 'big 6' have dropped so many points so early. its been really entertaining to watch and just got me thinking really. 

[Saint Fan CaM]

Agree with the POV that it's too early to really judge what may happen, however there are some indicators.  Bournemouth look to have a lack of quality in their ranks - definitely not as effective as their previous time in the EPL.  From there it's more difficult - I would say Everton and perhaps Villa could struggle to regain their previous levels and Forest could suffer from too many player changes, although I expect their manager to gel the squad later in the season.  West Ham appear to be in a bit of a spin at the moment, but they've got too much quality to remain in the R zone for too long.

Our chances to remain outside the bottom six will depend hugely on business conducted in the last two weeks of this window - essential we get at least another striker/forward and decent cover at full-back.

Leeds, Palace and Brighton are looking good value for money and will not be push-overs, but we have the team to get results.  Resilience and tactical changes will be key to our chances this season.

[sad saints fan]

I cant see the bottom 3 now being anywhere near relegation at the end of the season that is for sure

[Nolan]

1 hour ago, Sammy_Saint said:

After watching the opening 3 game weeks of the premier league this season, the results we've seen, the terrific performances of some teams, is there is a clear overall rise in the level and quality in the traditional 'best of the rest' teams in the premier league? Could this be the season where we cannot rely on, as we have for the past 3 seasons, that there will be 3 worse teams than us?

Now I'm very much the optimist, glass half full supporter, but lets face it, last season, Norwich, Watford, Burnley, Leeds and Everton were just as bad, if not worse than us (thank god after we imploded) 

If you look at 20/21 we were again lucky that we had Fulham, WBA, Sheff Utd and Burnley who were trash. 

I guess my point is this;

Whilst we are only 3 matches in, the newly promoted teams (bar Bournemouth) look very decent, Fulham especially. I think Forest will struggle just due to the massive sea change in personnel there. The teams we would normally be matching ourselves with;  Leeds (were superb yesterday), Brighton (are flying), Palace and Brentford (both look good), Newcastle (are a changed beast) and Villa (will be fine despite palace beating them) are arguably as good if not better than us and have recruited well. Could we see Wolves and Leicester struggle? I think it could be a much closer division 18th-9th with many teams now I feel possessing quality throughout their squads. Is it the end of the traditional top 6/7 teams, 8-10 similar teams and 4-3 woeful teams? If this is the case, how and where do Saints end up?! What does everyone think?

You've created a thread about relegation before Gameweek Three has finished. 

I would argue you've lost your "glass half full supporter" status down the back of the sofa.

[Lighthouse]

Every team in the league, every season relies on three teams being worse than them. That's literally the definition of relegation.

[badgerx16]

You should never rely on 3 teams being worse than you, a team's fate is ultimately in their own hands.

[Dusic]

Agree with the OP, the bottom half looks like being a lot stronger than it has been previously.

Forest may have signed a lot of players but quite a few are good, so sure Cooper will work it out fairly quickly.

In addition, the WC break gives a great reset opportunity (and Jan window planning) for the sides near the bottom.

Right now, Bournemouth aside there is nobody whose squad looks way below par and unfortunately some of the teams who have made a poor start are ones that will probably splash the cash in the next two weeks (Everton, Leicester with Fofana sale).

Would say its a season where if you make a poor start over the first 10 it will be hard to recover because seems unlikely many sides will have horror runs.

Due to the lack of proven PL quality in our squad we are obviously seen as a big candidate to go down and its hard to really argue against that, so we need to pick up some early points like we have done to keep us in a decent position for when our best run of fixtures is, just after the WC.

[Sammy_Saint]

1 hour ago, Nolan said:

You've created a thread about relegation before Gameweek Three has finished. 

I would argue you've lost your "glass half full supporter" status down the back of the sofa.

Not at all. 

 

Its a discussion starter after a very interesting opening 3 game weeks, the like of which we have not had for the previous few seasons. Do i think we will get relegated? Not at all, my prediction is 11th with 49 points. 

My point is, is that in previous seasons, and last season especially, we did unfortunately rely quite heavily on other teams performing poorly. Those said teams so far, seem to fewer than last season, as in the lower half of the table certainly seems to be stronger this season so far. Whilst it is very early on still, its shaping up to be an interesting season, with the possibility of the status-quo changing somewhat. My question was, where does that leave Saints? 

[eurosaint]

4 minutes ago, Sammy_Saint said:

Not at all. 

 

Its a discussion starter after a very interesting opening 3 game weeks, the like of which we have not had for the previous few seasons. Do i think we will get relegated? Not at all, my prediction is 11th with 49 points. 

My point is, is that in previous seasons, and last season especially, we did unfortunately rely quite heavily on other teams performing poorly. Those said teams so far, seem to fewer than last season, as in the lower half of the table certainly seems to be stronger this season so far. Whilst it is very early on still, its shaping up to be an interesting season, with the possibility of the status-quo changing somewhat. My question was, where does that leave Saints? 

I agree, and it a reasonable assertion that there will not be three teams stranded this season !

It seems already that anybody can beat anybody and probably tighter than for a number of years now !

There could be trouble for some because of FFP rules (ie. Everton and Leicester) !

We have lost 3 strikers (Long, Broja & Tella) with only Mara incoming in that position so we deffo need another one along with a back up full back. If we manage that then I'll be hoping for a mid table (ish) finish !

COYS 😇

[Sunglasses Ron]

Maybe a better way to look at this is to consider the points tallies of the relegated teams in the previous few seasons:

> 2019/20 - 35 points required for guaranteed safety (we got 52 and came 11th);

> 2020/21 - 29 points required for guaranteed safety (we got 43 and came 15th); and

> 2021/22 - 36 points required for guaranteed safety (we got 40 and came 15th).

When you look at that information, we haven't really come close to relegation at all as we've either collected far more points than required and/or had several teams between us and positions 18-20.  The worrying thing is that our points total has reduced three years on the trot.  If we lose another 3-5 points from last season's total then we'll be bang in trouble, no doubt.

Thankfully, early signs are that our new signings have improved us and we've obviously (hopefully) kept our best talent too.  I know we're down 2 points on the equivalent fixtures last season, but I don't think we should see too much into that.

I'm hopeful of a mid-table finish, but it's definitely not clear-cut at this time I'd say. 

Edited 22 August, 2022 by Sunglasses Ron

[RedArmy]

18 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

You should never rely on 3 teams being worse than you, a team's fate is ultimately in their own hands.

Yeah it’s a terrible mentality. Basically saying it’s ok to be a bit shit because there’s going to be 3 teams worse than us. 
 

A couple of key injuries and you end up being one of those clubs that another team relies on to be worse than them. 

[CamSaint]

27 minutes ago, Sunglasses Ron said:

When you look at that information, we haven't really come close to relegation at all as we've either collected far more points than required and/or had several teams between us and positions 18-20.  The worrying thing is that our points total has reduced three years on the trot.  If we lose another 3-5 points from last season's total then we'll be bang in trouble, no doubt.

Maybe this will be the season that the 'magic' figure of 40 points will not be enough to guarantee safety - it has happened before.

[cloggy saint]

16 minutes ago, CamSaint said:

Maybe this will be the season that the 'magic' figure of 40 points will not be enough to guarantee safety - it has happened before.

It has, but not for 20 years.

[CB Fry]

Jesus, this is getting earlier and earlier.

[SNSUN]

OP does have a point, look around at the transfers of any promoted team or team that you may think could be in a relegation battle and they've mostly made some decent transfers on paper.  Even at this early stage some of the transfers in to clubs are showing promise... even ours. Aribo and perhaps Bazunu are the players we had prior knowledge of but ABK, Lavia and Mara have all started well. 

 

I struggle to see anyone that will get cut adrift this season so the sooner 40+points are reached the better.

[Baird of the land]

Bournemouth look a team likely to get cut adrift imo. Agree though at the moment it is looking likely to be pretty competive above that.

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

Bournemouth look a team likely to get cut adrift imo. Agree though at the moment it is looking likely to be pretty competive above that.

why makes you say that? They have 1 whole point fewer than us

[Baird of the land]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

why makes you say that? They have 1 whole point fewer than us

They have spent the least of the promoted sides and the business they have done seems weak to me. They beat a poor Villa on opening day but didn't turn up in either of their admittedly tough games therafter. Maybe they surprise me but looks to me like a team that's preparing for the drop rather than Fulham/Forest who are doing everything to establish themselves.

[Saint Garrett]

I think looking at Bournemouth's squad it's definitely the weakest in the premier league, I assume thats why people are saying they're the only one likely to get cut adrift. You normally get all 3 sides that have relatively weak squads but some overperform, and then you get a bunch of current premier league sides that are in a bit of a mess after a few bad seasons. ones like us unfortunately, but there aren't many others really. Leicester may fit that bill, especially if they lose a few more, but you'd expect they'll have too much quality, same with Everton, Wolves and West Ham. Leeds, Brighton, Palace, Brentford are the ones you might have ecpected to be dragged in, but they've done a great job off the pitch, and don't look like being involved this season. 

I think it's actually a really exciting season, because you've probably got a top 5, with everyone expecting City to win the league, and then if a couple teams have a bad run they could easily find themselves involved in a relegation fight.  Though I'd much rather there was 2 relegated already, like Norwich and Watford last season !

[stevegrant]

1 hour ago, CamSaint said:

Maybe this will be the season that the 'magic' figure of 40 points will not be enough to guarantee safety - it has happened before.

Literally once since the PL reduced in numbers from 22 to 20 teams. That reduction happened in 1995, and the solitary relegation was West Ham in 2003 (a team containing the likes of Michael Carrick, Frank Lampard and Jermain Defoe).

While I like the look of the business we've done this summer, it also has to be accepted that the strategy comes with a degree of risk. Players with little top level experience could as easily sink as they could swim. However, when the experienced players are so ingrained in a treading water mentality, perhaps bringing in talented youngsters looking to showcase themselves and improve might turn out to be a better strategy. Difficult to draw any real conclusions from the first three games, in truth.

Personally I think all three promoted sides will be there or thereabouts - Fulham look better than they did last time they came up, but that's a very low bar to get over really. They look like they'll score more than before, but defensively they still look pretty ropey to me. Forest needed to buy half a team to replace the loan players they had last season, and arguably another half a team to replace the rest who may not be good enough at this level, so the number of signings they've made shouldn't be too much of a surprise, although the amount of money involved is perhaps a bit more eyebrow-raising. Bournemouth seem to have basically done nothing over the summer and having rather stumbled over the line a little bit last season, they don't look in particularly great shape.

Beyond that, Everton still look poor (and have lost their game-changing centre forward from last season) but will probably be fine when they realise that Lampard is a terrible manager. Villa have once again spent loads of money to look no better than they did last season but they will probably also be fine when they realise that Gerrard isn't as astute as that Rangers team made him look. Leicester might get to spend some money at the last minute if they let two of their best players leave - no guarantee they replace them with anyone up to the level required, and Rodgers is doing a fine job of deflecting blame in the media at the moment.

[saint in Den Haag]

I agree with the sentiment of the OP that this year does look on paper harder and quite a few teams could be fighting to avoid relegation..

What might have more of an impact this year than 'what players everyone has'  is Team moral and a collective togetherness. There are quite a few teams that look like they might be starting to wobble internally, either cause of fan discontentment, or dressing room egos, transfers that got blocked, or manager / player disagreements...

The fan discontentment is building at villa and Leicester - looking at forums most want a different manager. Everton could go that way. Even Wham the fans are starting to question Moyes and that their tactics have been found out and he does not have a plan B (probably a very common statement on all managers)

Forest need to build a Team quickly whilst keeping the old team that got promoted happy.

I think our performances are very sensitive to this, when there is a buzz in the team Ralphs's tactics click but when moral drops we drop like a stone. So i hope the new backroom staff are the right ones not just from coaching but the 1-1 side of things as well, and we may risk loosing too many of the senior players for their influence. We all might want Theo to go to free up wages but i wander how important he might be on the training pitch alongside Romeu and others. The flip side of this is a senior player with too much influence (Deeney at Watford maybe)

[LiberalCommunist]

When a team performs like us, under Ralph's inconsistent stewardship, its never too early to ask the question; are 3 teams worse than us.

I've been wondering this throughout the pre-season. I've always liked RH, but I have started to lose faith in him and his stubborn decisions. 

Some of our dreadfully long bad runs almost deserved relegation. The awful records we have set under his guidance still make me cringe. 

But. We have added five players that look to have brought something new and invigorated to the table. I'm really excited to see these new guys progress, and start pushing Walcott & others (not going to bother naming names, but lots of them should not still be here) out of our squad.  From what I have seen in the last three games genuinely fills me with optimism.

Its not about the three worst teams now, its about how well we can do with this new group.

[coalman]

August is just a crapshoot. Things won't settle until mid September. Then it'll be time for the world cup and another reset after. It'll be interesting to see how teams start again. 

[tajjuk]

Also this forum has a consistent theme of casting envious eyes over other clubs transfer business that consistently over exaggerates those transfers. So this ‘the bottom half has recruited really well’ assessment is just as likely misplaced imo

I remember many a post commenting on Villa’s recruitment last year, but look where that has got them. Everton have spent shed loads but are utter crap but people seem convinced Forest cash splashing is great? All that money spent and they were thoroughly outplayed by a struggling West Ham and we’re holding on against a gash Everton so I am struggling to see why they won’t be involved in relegation based on performance so far. 
 

We will certainly see but again assessments at this stage are just pointless imo. 

[Dragon_man]

I thought the same as the OP. Nothing is decided in August of course but I have been impressed by the quality of football by teams I expected to be in the bottom third come end of season. Just look at yesterday, Leeds, Newcastle and Brighton looked good. Chelsea, Man Utd and the likes will come good and get into the top 6 or so.

It does feel different to me this year, there's no early signs of 3 whipping boys and quality does seem a step up.

The only only team I feel that is in real dire straits is Leicester. Very poor against us, just no spark and plenty of player issues. If their top three go, they won't get quality replacements in in time and the rest of the squad looks uninspiring. Everton aren't far behind in terms of problems.

Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth have looked OK and very capable of mixing it with the established PL teams.   

[Ex Lion Tamer]

1 hour ago, Dragon_man said:

I thought the same as the OP. Nothing is decided in August of course but I have been impressed by the quality of football by teams I expected to be in the bottom third come end of season. Just look at yesterday, Leeds, Newcastle and Brighton looked good. Chelsea, Man Utd and the likes will come good and get into the top 6 or so.

It does feel different to me this year, there's no early signs of 3 whipping boys and quality does seem a step up.

The only only team I feel that is in real dire straits is Leicester. Very poor against us, just no spark and plenty of player issues. If their top three go, they won't get quality replacements in in time and the rest of the squad looks uninspiring. Everton aren't far behind in terms of problems.

Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth have looked OK and very capable of mixing it with the established PL teams.   

Leicester aren't the team they were but I can see a new manager coming in and steering them clear of trouble

[sydney_saint]

Way too early to say. If you ask the various fanbases, there are quite a few that in crisis or expecting relegation. Off the top of my head

• Everton - look absolutely dreadful and are weaker than last season
• Bournemouth- probably not strong enough to survive
• Villa - have spent alot last few seasons, but look a mess under Gerard. Whilst you wouldn't expect them to go down, it's not an impossibility
• Leicester- Again don't expect them to go down, but not impossible. They are a shambles. 
• Wolves- I personally think are in real trouble. Fans don't like the manager, and their squad largely feels stale. 
• West Ham- too good to go down, but there is discontent

Add in Forest, who have had quite an easy start but could struggle with all their new players. Brentford had a bad loss on the weekend depsite their United performance (which let's be honest, United gifted them a couple of goals as good as Brentford were). Fulham have started well but recent history shows they can really capitulate. 

I could quite easily see three of these sides struggling massively. Or at least, I don't think at the moment there are signs that this will be a season where you need an unusually high amount of points to survive. 

 

[S-Clarke]

10 minutes ago, sydney_saint said:

Way too early to say. If you ask the various fanbases, there are quite a few that in crisis or expecting relegation. Off the top of my head

• Wolves- I personally think are in real trouble. Fans don't like the manager, and their squad largely feels stale. 

 

They'll be fine. They don't give up much defensively, so that will always be a positive - but they just lack a goal scorer without Jimenez. By all accounts they're going to sign the guy we wanted, Sasa (i won't spell his last name). So, if you put him in the team with the likes of Neto, Traore, Neves, Nunes, Guedes etc they should be absolutely nowhere near and on a different level to us. I don't think they've been too bad so far, just lacking a final touch.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The World Cup throws a spanner in everyone’s predictions this season. Not really studied who plays for which country and which of the “strugglers” will lose key men. You also don’t know who is going to suffer disappointment & mental fatigue from playing in Qatar and how that’ll affect anything.  However, I’m pretty sure some players not going will welcome the rest, clubs will have the majority of key men resting and that rest, could just give them a couple of extra points that may get them over the line. 

[AlexLaw76]

43 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The World Cup throws a spanner in everyone’s predictions this season. Not really studied who plays for which country and which of the “strugglers” will lose key men. You also don’t know who is going to suffer disappointment & mental fatigue from playing in Qatar and how that’ll affect anything.  However, I’m pretty sure some players not going will welcome the rest, clubs will have the majority of key men resting and that rest, could just give them a couple of extra points that may get them over the line. 

out of our current players, maybe JwP will be it?

[Dorchester Saint]

Is the original question a serious one? Does anyone think that the boardroom, manager and coaches have ever gone into a season with the strategy of “fuck it there will be three worse teams than us” ? 

Edited 23 August, 2022 by Dorchester Saint

[whelk]

On 22/08/2022 at 14:26, CB Fry said:

Jesus, this is getting earlier and earlier.

And being rebranded as not just simple old relegation

[farawaysaint]

We can never rely on three teams being worse than us. The premier league is one of the most competitive leagues in the world and yes we have survived at times in an ugly manner but we are here on merit.

Realistically we will be relegated at some point because we simply don’t have the financial or prestige pull of the biggest of the big. We have however survived 10! years in this competitive league with the resources we have available. That in itself is pretty special in my book.

[Ted Bates Statue]

Had to check the annual table to see how bad we are this year, and embarrassingly we still have fewer points in the prem than Burnley (24; we're on 23) although funnily enough we have both played 22 matches. Burnley must have had three games called off in 2021 due to Covid.

On the other hand, I was surprised to see some 'good' sides only having collected a few more points than us - West Ham (25), Villa (26) and Wolves (27) and two of them have played an extra game. I had assumed there would be a really large gap of around 10-14 points. Leicester aren't much better and Leeds were very much part of that group until last weekend. Considering we've endured a long spell with barely a win, there are evidently plenty of other sides doing their level best to find new ways of disappointing their supporters. At least West Ham have enjoyed a cup run this year but for the likes of Gerrard and Lampard, they have bright futures ahead of them in the field of matchday punditry. The longer it takes for Villa and Everton to realise this, the better for us.

[Baird of the land]

Are there really people who think one Swallow performance aagainst Villa makes Bournemouth anything other than relegation fodder

[Saint IQ]

I think this early on there is only one team you would bet on to go down and only 5 teams you'd expect have a chance of top 4.

Will I be right with those predictions after only 3 or 4 matches played? 

Yes