Relegation prices thread 2022/23.

[Sunglasses Ron]

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Edited 26 February, 2023 by Sunglasses Ron
Wrong thread

[CB Fry]

Chelsea being dragged into it.

[whelk]

20 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Chelsea being dragged into it.

Surprised QPR appointed a new manager and didn’t wait for Potter

[Whitey Grandad]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

Chelsea being dragged into it.

If only…

West Ham, Everton & Chelsea to get relegated. What are the odds of that?

[Dark Munster]

7 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

I have too looked back at that huge swing in form under Ralph, but do you know what the difference really was? Ings. Danny ings. Goals. Armanda Broja. Goals.

We don't have Ings or Broja anymore, we also don't have goals. I don't think we're playing badly in a defensive sense but we don't score goals and are seemingly incapable of doing so. So whilst our form did flip, and it shows it's possible, it's because we had a 20 goal striker in our side to bail us out when we gave away goals (which we were still doing by the way)

Absolutely this. I've said before, a goal scoring forward lifts the whole team, from front to back. Without one the team is terrified of conceding, knowing that it's probably curtains if they do. No risks taken, no taking it to the opposition. In short, the shit performances we've had for most of the season, just like yesterday.

That's why Semmens and SR not addressing this as their main priority in the summer was criminal.

[Dark Munster]

10 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Bournemouth are going down with us, Forest aren't going to go down now.

Sorry I need to stop going on about it. But the obvious point to make is the true "believers" that think we are going to stay up would think exactly the same if we were in Forest's position (still only six points off top 10!!) or West Ham's position (we've just spanked Forest!!) or Leeds position (we've just won a criticalgame under our new manager!!). So not that objective.

I don't recall seeing any poster who thinks we are going to stay up. They'd be delusional if they thought that.

I'd say all vary from "almost certainly, but not definitely yet, relegated" to "we're 100% relegated" (you for example).

The bookies have us at about a 72% chance of going down. If they thought it was 100% certain they probably wouldn't be taking any bets on us getting relegated.

For what it's worth, after the Leeds abomination I'm in the 90% chance of us going down.

[Saint_clark]

2 minutes ago, Dark Munster said:

I don't recall seeing any poster who thinks we are going to stay up. They'd be delusional if they thought that.

I'd say all vary from "almost certainly, but not definitely yet, relegated" to "we're 100% relegated" (you for example).

The bookies have us at about a 72% chance of going down. If they thought it was 100% certain they probably wouldn't be taking any bets on us getting relegated.

For what it's worth, after the Leeds abomination I'm in the 90% chance of us going down.

Yeah of course it's not impossible, but it would take an incredibly unlikely turnaround at this point. As it is right now i'm pretty sure we'll be down the end of the season - if we beat Leicester and then get a shock win at Old Trafford (I know, we won't, but IF), then I might say we have a chance again. 

 

I think the biggest thing it's going to require is big changes to the things we've been doing all season that haven't worked, namely Bazunu in goal and slow ponderous build up play. Get Willy or McCarthy in goal, play 4-3-3 with Lavia, JWP and Alcaraz in the middle and get Sulemana and Edozie or Orsic running off the shoulder of the full backs for balls down the line and crossing the ball in for Onuachu, with JWP and Alcaraz making late runs into the box. 

Edited 26 February, 2023 by Saint_clark

[Saint Fan CaM]

2 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

I think the biggest thing it's going to require is big changes to the things we've been doing all season that haven't worked, namely Bazunu in goal and slow ponderous build up play. Get Willy or McCarthy in goal, play 4-3-3 with Lavia, JWP and Alcaraz in the middle and get Sulemana and Edozie or Orsic running off the shoulder of the full backs for balls down the line and crossing the ball in for Onuachu, with JWP and Alcaraz making late runs into the box. 

Big changes to the things we’ve been doing for almost three seasons really (I know some of the players have not been here that long). You’re right though and the distressing thing is there’s very little chance we’ll see those things corrected. Everything points to us limping home still rooted to the bottom.

[ChrisR]

After the Wolves game i had pretty much accepted we are down, then a brief hiatus of hope after the Chelsea result but afraid that has been dashed with Leeds game, i just cant see us stringing the necessary number of games together to get out of it. I hope we are either safe or already down before the Liverpool game as i could not stand losing to them to go down, but given our lack of goals think it will be all over well before then

 

[S-Clarke]

1 hour ago, ChrisR said:

After the Wolves game i had pretty much accepted we are down, then a brief hiatus of hope after the Chelsea result but afraid that has been dashed with Leeds game, i just cant see us stringing the necessary number of games together to get out of it. I hope we are either safe or already down before the Liverpool game as i could not stand losing to them to go down, but given our lack of goals think it will be all over well before then

 

Yeah I don't see it going to the last game, it'll be over long before that.

And the most infuriating thing about it all will be that we start winning once it’s confirmed and the pressure is off. That would sum up this weak as piss squad.

[tisspahars]

21 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

I have too looked back at that huge swing in form under Ralph, but do you know what the difference really was? Ings. Danny ings. Goals. Armanda Broja. Goals.

We don't have Ings or Broja anymore, we also don't have goals. I don't think we're playing badly in a defensive sense but we don't score goals and are seemingly incapable of doing so. So whilst our form did flip, and it shows it's possible, it's because we had a 20 goal striker in our side to bail us out when we gave away goals (which we were still doing by the way)

I absolutely take your point - and quite clearly we would have better prospects of staying up if a fit Ings was in our squad now - but in that season when we were top in November he only scored 5 goals in the first 16 games so it's not quite that black and white.

[Saint Garrett]

27 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

I absolutely take your point - and quite clearly we would have better prospects of staying up if a fit Ings was in our squad now - but in that season when we were top in November he only scored 5 goals in the first 16 games so it's not quite that black and white.

The point being it also lifts everyone else, and pushes the opponent back because we have a goal threat. This season, teams have just pushed up against us and suffocated us, and eventually scored. We always had a threat on the break because one pass and Ings and Broja could be through on goal. 

We've now got Sulemena who doesn't look particularly comfortable playing up front, and Onuachu who, lets be honest, doesn't look close to scoring any goals in this league. He might do a job off the ball, but he's no more of a goal threat than Adams, and doesn't offer us anything in the press.

We've got a very large squad of players, with them fitting different systems, but not particularly the one that we play, and a keeper / defence who give goals away for fun. 

It's been a mess of a season, last summers window, hiring a bloke who the fans could see from the first moment didn't fit the club or the players in the slightest, and waiting too long to accept their error and get rid of him. And then not having signings lined up for the start of Jan when they should have been through the door. 

We got exactly what we deserve this season, lets be honest. 

[Turkish]

10 minutes ago, Saint Garrett said:

The point being it also lifts everyone else, and pushes the opponent back because we have a goal threat. This season, teams have just pushed up against us and suffocated us, and eventually scored. We always had a threat on the break because one pass and Ings and Broja could be through on goal. 

We've now got Sulemena who doesn't look particularly comfortable playing up front, and Onuachu who, lets be honest, doesn't look close to scoring any goals in this league. He might do a job off the ball, but he's no more of a goal threat than Adams, and doesn't offer us anything in the press.

We've got a very large squad of players, with them fitting different systems, but not particularly the one that we play, and a keeper / defence who give goals away for fun. 

It's been a mess of a season, last summers window, hiring a bloke who the fans could see from the first moment didn't fit the club or the players in the slightest, and waiting too long to accept their error and get rid of him. And then not having signings lined up for the start of Jan when they should have been through the door. 

We got exactly what we deserve this season, lets be honest. 

We've basically been a poor mans Chelsea. Spending and spending on random players, no real system or plan other than sign a load of kids and hope it works. we've signed 3 wingers in two windows and it doesn't look like we're now playing with wingers, two strikers neither of which seem to be able to stick the ball in the net, a right back who was obviously the mate of a manager who was sacked a few games later, a midfielder who looks like he has something but now cant get in the team. A centre back who couldn't wait to leave, left did shite and is now back as first choice over the guy signed to replace him, who also cant get into the squad. It's an absolute shambles.

[tisspahars]

Back out to 4/7 after the win against Leicester.

[tisspahars]

Touched 4/6 after the point at OT, 1/2 after defeat at Brentford, which, whilst that was a bitter blow is somewhat removed from the 100% down narrative that is back in town.

[tisspahars]

Eased a touch to 4/7 after the point against Spurs. 9 (NINE) teams at less than 6/1 to go down which is absolutely unprecedented at this stage.

[Crab Lungs]

On 27/02/2023 at 11:18, Turkish said:

We've basically been a poor mans Chelsea. Spending and spending on random players, no real system or plan other than sign a load of kids and hope it works. we've signed 3 wingers in two windows and it doesn't look like we're now playing with wingers, two strikers neither of which seem to be able to stick the ball in the net, a right back who was obviously the mate of a manager who was sacked a few games later, a midfielder who looks like he has something but now cant get in the team. A centre back who couldn't wait to leave, left did shite and is now back as first choice over the guy signed to replace him, who also cant get into the squad. It's an absolute shambles.

If I could bottle ‘relaxed and confident’ - that’s exactly what our recruitment team runs on. Stellar stuff.

[tisspahars]

1/3 after defeat at West Ham.

[Dark Munster]

3 hours ago, tisspahars said:

1/3 after defeat at West Ham.

75% chance of going down? That's quite generous. Should be at least 90% I reckon.

[tisspahars]

In my experience the fans of every team in the mire always think they are more "gone" than the market does and a read back on these threads over the years tells you ours definitely do!

[tisspahars]

That said, having had a night to digest the weekend's results, the market has moved in your direction to 1/4.....

[tisspahars]

1/5 after defeat to Man City. Palace next and whilst that's still not a "must win" (people who talk about "must wins" generally don't seem to understand what that means, strangely) it is the closest by some way we've come to one this year. Win and we'll be about 1/2 again (imo), lose and we'll be about 1/20.

[CB Fry]

18 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

1/5 after defeat to Man City. Palace next and whilst that's still not a "must win" (people who talk about "must wins" generally don't seem to understand what that means, strangely) it is the closest by some way we've come to one this year. Win and we'll be about 1/2 again (imo), lose and we'll be about 1/20.

If your definition of a "must-win" is exclusively a handful of games in May where it becomes mathmatically impossible to stay up then I would suggest that you are the person who "doesn't understand what it means".

We won't be relegated because we lost some singular game in May that makes it a mathmatical fact. We will be relegated because of our shit run in January and February, and our losses to the likes of West Ham last week.

Honestly if you think we can not win vs Palace and still stay up then God help you.

Edited 9 April, 2023 by CB Fry

[tisspahars]

Firstly, as I have said we will be 1/20 for relegation if we lose to Palace it is clear how little chance I think we would have if we fail to win. Secondly, a two part question.....

a) Are we absolutely certain to go down now?

b) Have there been somewhere between 7-10 games since the World Cup that this forum has described as "must win" that we failed to win.

Answering those two correctly should help you figure out if it is me or the forum (or SOME on this forum) who don't understand what "must win" means.

[CB Fry]

13 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

Firstly, as I have said we will be 1/20 for relegation if we lose to Palace it is clear how little chance I think we would have if we fail to win. Secondly, a two part question.....

a) Are we absolutely certain to go down now?

b) Have there been somewhere between 7-10 games since the World Cup that this forum has described as "must win" that we failed to win.

Answering those two correctly should help you figure out if it is me or the forum (or SOME on this forum) who don't understand what "must win" means.

You've answered it - you clearly don't understand what it means.

[tisspahars]

Clearly....😄

[CB Fry]

5 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

Clearly....😄

Very, very clearly.

Clue: it does not mean just the game we happen to play in May when we're 20th and not winning that specific game means we are mathmatically down.

It has never meant just that and never will just mean that. It's fine you didn't realise, I'm here to help x x x 

If we'd won some of those must win games earlier in the season then maybe we wouldn't be 20th now and clearly relegated.

That's kinda how it works.

Edited 9 April, 2023 by CB Fry

[Forester]

Next weekend I think is the pivotal one.  We have to beat Palace to have any realistic prospect of staying up, looking at our remaining fixtures.  But it could also feel pivotal min terms of momentum, because with the exception of Everton all our rivals have on paper games I expect them to lose.

Bournemouth away to Spurs

Leicester away to Man City

Wet Spam home to Arsenal

Forest home to Man Utd

Leeds home to Liverpool

I do however expect Everton to beat Fulham.  Clearly all these games may not go to plan, but if we beat Palace (and that looks harder now given Hodgson impact) I expect us to be three points from safety at the end of the weekend and off the bottom.  If by some fortune Everton slip up as well, then we would be one or two points from safety.  That will FEEL very different to everyone concerned

 

[Crab Lungs]

20 minutes ago, Forester said:

Next weekend I think is the pivotal one.  We have to beat Palace to have any realistic prospect of staying up, looking at our remaining fixtures.  But it could also feel pivotal min terms of momentum, because with the exception of Everton all our rivals have on paper games I expect them to lose.

Bournemouth away to Spurs

Leicester away to Man City

Wet Spam home to Arsenal

Forest home to Man Utd

Leeds home to Liverpool

I do however expect Everton to beat Fulham.  Clearly all these games may not go to plan, but if we beat Palace (and that looks harder now given Hodgson impact) I expect us to be three points from safety at the end of the weekend and off the bottom.  If by some fortune Everton slip up as well, then we would be one or two points from safety.  That will FEEL very different to everyone concerned

 

Posts like this make me want it over with! Love the positivity but I think we’re truly cooked. They’d be good if we looked like we’ve got a collective set on us but we don’t, sadly.

[SaintTex]

if Everton, Leicester, and Saints go down that has got to be some sort of record for the most collective consecutive seasons in the top tier for the 3 relegated teams.

[Saint_clark]

After doing another premier league predictor, admittedly being more generous than I think we will actually do, I got this with one game left;

13		West Ham United	37	9	9	19	35:53	-18	36
14		Leeds United	37	9	9	19	45:64	-19	36
15		Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	9	8	20	28:53	-25	35
16		AFC Bournemouth	37	9	7	21	32:69	-37	34
17		Everton FC	37	7	12	18	28:53	-25	33
18		Southampton FC	37	9	6	22	29:59	-30	33
19		Nottingham Forest	37	7	10	20	25:62	-37	31
20		Leicester City	37	8	5	24	44:63	-19	29

With the table looking like this after the final day; 

13		West Ham United	38	9	10	19	37:55	-18	37
14		Leeds United	38	9	9	20	46:66	-20	36
15		Everton FC	38	8	12	18	31:54	-23	36
16		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	9	8	21	28:56	-28	35
17		Southampton FC	38	9	7	22	30:60	-30	34
18		AFC Bournemouth	38	9	7	22	33:72	-39	34
19		Nottingham Forest	38	7	10	21	26:65	-39	31
20		Leicester City	38	8	6	24	46:65	-19	30

 

Results we get are as follows; 

Win at home to Bournemouth and Palace, away to Forest

Draw at home to Liverpool and Fulham. 

Lose away to Brighton, Newcastle and Arsenal.

Very optimistic but I can't help it. 

[CB Fry]

7 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

After doing another premier league predictor, admittedly being more generous than I think we will actually do, I got this with one game left;

13		West Ham United	37	9	9	19	35:53	-18	36
14		Leeds United	37	9	9	19	45:64	-19	36
15		Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	9	8	20	28:53	-25	35
16		AFC Bournemouth	37	9	7	21	32:69	-37	34
17		Everton FC	37	7	12	18	28:53	-25	33
18		Southampton FC	37	9	6	22	29:59	-30	33
19		Nottingham Forest	37	7	10	20	25:62	-37	31
20		Leicester City	37	8	5	24	44:63	-19	29

With the table looking like this after the final day; 

13		West Ham United	38	9	10	19	37:55	-18	37
14		Leeds United	38	9	9	20	46:66	-20	36
15		Everton FC	38	8	12	18	31:54	-23	36
16		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	9	8	21	28:56	-28	35
17		Southampton FC	38	9	7	22	30:60	-30	34
18		AFC Bournemouth	38	9	7	22	33:72	-39	34
19		Nottingham Forest	38	7	10	21	26:65	-39	31
20		Leicester City	38	8	6	24	46:65	-19	30

 

Results we get are as follows; 

Win at home to Bournemouth and Palace, away to Forest

Draw at home to Liverpool and Fulham. 

Lose away to Brighton, Newcastle and Arsenal.

Very optimistic but I can't help it. 

I think your issue is not your optimism with Saints but ridiculous pessimistic view of other clubs.

Why are Bournemouth only getting 4 points from their last 8 games? If we were in Bournemouth's position today there's no way you'd be predicting that, more likely you'd be doing predictors that put us in 11th on the last day.

I think Forest probably will drop but they'll get more than just 5 more points from 8 games.

Again, if that was Saints in that position you would run the numbers and oh-would-you-believe-it we're safe.

Other clubs are not going to lose their way to our safety.

Edited 11 April, 2023 by CB Fry

[Saint_clark]

1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

I think your issue is not your optimism with Saints but ridiculous pessimistic view of other clubs.

Why are Bournemouth only getting 4 points from their last 8 games? If we were in Bournemouth's position today there's no way you'd be predicting that, more likely you'd be doing predictors that put us in 11th on the last day.

I think Forest probably will drop but they'll get more than just 5 more points from 8 games.

Again, if that was Saints in that position you would run the numbers and oh-would-you-believe-it we're safe.

Other clubs are not going to lose their way to our safety.

Fair enough. I'll switch them to beating Everton and Leeds instead of losing both. 

We finish above both of them instead, one place higher 🤷🏼‍♂️

[CB Fry]

6 minutes ago, Saint_clark said:

Fair enough. I'll switch them to beating Everton and Leeds instead of losing both. 

We finish above both of them instead, one place higher 🤷🏼‍♂️

So now Leeds are getting 4 points in 8 games instead. Genius.

[S-Clarke]

Can't see 34 points being enough, it'll be 36-38 as per usual imo.

That means we're going to need to get 15 out of 24 points, so we're going to need to get a win at one of Newcastle, Brighton, Arsenal (as well as win all the games we 'should' be winning).

It'll be interesting seeing who goes down with us, but it's pretty much in the 90%s of probability that we're done I'd have thought. Teams in the low 20's points wise in mid-april do not survive.

Edited 11 April, 2023 by S-Clarke

[SaintTex]

20 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

After doing another premier league predictor, admittedly being more generous than I think we will actually do, I got this with one game left;

13		West Ham United	37	9	9	19	35:53	-18	36
14		Leeds United	37	9	9	19	45:64	-19	36
15		Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	9	8	20	28:53	-25	35
16		AFC Bournemouth	37	9	7	21	32:69	-37	34
17		Everton FC	37	7	12	18	28:53	-25	33
18		Southampton FC	37	9	6	22	29:59	-30	33
19		Nottingham Forest	37	7	10	20	25:62	-37	31
20		Leicester City	37	8	5	24	44:63	-19	29

With the table looking like this after the final day; 

13		West Ham United	38	9	10	19	37:55	-18	37
14		Leeds United	38	9	9	20	46:66	-20	36
15		Everton FC	38	8	12	18	31:54	-23	36
16		Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	9	8	21	28:56	-28	35
17		Southampton FC	38	9	7	22	30:60	-30	34
18		AFC Bournemouth	38	9	7	22	33:72	-39	34
19		Nottingham Forest	38	7	10	21	26:65	-39	31
20		Leicester City	38	8	6	24	46:65	-19	30

 

Results we get are as follows; 

Win at home to Bournemouth and Palace, away to Forest

Draw at home to Liverpool and Fulham. 

Lose away to Brighton, Newcastle and Arsenal.

Very optimistic but I can't help it. 

[tisspahars]

1/12 after defeat to Palace.

[Suhari]

25 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

1/12 after defeat to Palace.

They'll be no Great Escape this season, sadly.

What id give for a new Pahars and the guts and fight we had in that team back then.

[Whitey Grandad]

27 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

1/12 after defeat to Palace.

I reckon we need a minimum of four wins from seven games and even that would probably not be enough.

[Daft Kerplunk]

6 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

I reckon we need a minimum of four wins from seven games and even that would probably not be enough.

Similar form to those chasing the final Champions league spot then. Just to put in to context for those who still imagine we will conjure a level of form we’ve not had since 2021. 

[Turkish]

give how shite we are i cant see us getting many more points. Maybe 3 more. So reckon we might be relegated either by Forest or Fulham. Definitely down by the time we play Liverpool though.

Final Fixtures

Arsenal A Lose

Bournemouth H Current form Lose, chance of a draw

Newcastle A Lose

Forest A - theyre pretty shit so chance of a draw

Fulham H - Draw maybe?

Brighton A - Lose

Liverpool H - Lose 

[Eric The Red]

1 hour ago, Turkish said:

give how shite we are i cant see us getting many more points. Maybe 3 more. So reckon we might be relegated either by Forest or Fulham. Definitely down by the time we play Liverpool though.

Final Fixtures

Arsenal A Lose

Bournemouth H Current form Lose, chance of a draw

Newcastle A Lose

Forest A - theyre pretty shit so chance of a draw

Fulham H - Draw maybe?

Brighton A - Lose

Liverpool H - Lose 

Agreed, now unlikely to be 'officially' relegated in April but unless we get a win by then as we play Forest in the last game of that weekend we could be mathematically down before kick off and quite likely down by the final whistle.

[JRM]

Those knobheads down the road are desperate to relegate us on the 27th, hope we don't give them the pleasure , remember the whip rounds we had to "save the cherries" 

[Turkish]

14 minutes ago, JRM said:

Those knobheads down the road are desperate to relegate us on the 27th, hope we don't give them the pleasure , remember the whip rounds we had to "save the cherries" 

Have you seen that singing at half time at Spurs? We’re down but it’d be great to beat them. We do seem to have a bit of hold over them. We generally get a result against them

[tisspahars]

1/6 after the heroics/capitulation (delete as appropriate) at Arsenal.

[tisspahars]

1/20 after the latest debacle against Bournemouth, which, if you have the means, seems high!

[tisspahars]

1/25 after defeat at Newcastle (although we touched 1/10 at HT! 😉).

[tisspahars]

1/100 (and that's because that is the lowest the Betfair market goes!) after defeat at Forest. End of thread. See you next year for the "Promotion prices thread".😎

[Chewy]

48 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

1/100 (and that's because that is the lowest the Betfair market goes!) after defeat at Forest. End of thread. See you next year for the "Promotion prices thread".😎

Leicester won the league with longer odds.

Believe!!!

[Rut]

6 hours ago, Chewy said:

Leicester won the league with longer odds.

Believe!!!

1/100 & 5000/1 are not what you should be comparing.

Has a 1/100 shot ever NOT won? That's we need to happen here.