Relegation prices thread 2022/23.

[tisspahars]

An update ahead of the return to action on Boxing Day.....

Saints Forum view - Almost certain to be relegated, probably finishing bottom.

Betting market view - Considerably more likely to stay up than go down (15/8 currently), joint 4th most likely to be relegated with Everton and rated considerably less likely than Bournemouth, Forest and Wolves.

[whelk]

4 hours ago, tisspahars said:

An update ahead of the return to action on Boxing Day.....

Saints Forum view - Almost certain to be relegated, probably finishing bottom.

Betting market view - Considerably more likely to stay up than go down (15/8 currently), joint 4th most likely to be relegated with Everton and rated considerably less likely than Bournemouth, Forest and Wolves.

There is plenty of evidence that we are at high risk of getting relegated. I know some panic when we have 35 points in March but no signs we are better than 3 teams at the mo. Can easily turn it around of course but 15/8 is too high IMO

Edited 24 December, 2022 by whelk

[farawaysaint]

Are we at the stage yet where we start saying “I don’t care if we get relegated, Championship is a much more exciting league, proper fans and no glory supporters”?

Edited 24 December, 2022 by farawaysaint

[cloggy saint]

1 minute ago, farawaysaint said:

Are we at the stage yet where we start saying that “I don’t care if we get relegated, Championship is a much more exciting league, proper fans and no glory supporters”?

It started a while ago.

[S-Clarke]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

There is plenty of evidence that we are at high risk of getting relegated. I know some panic when we have 35 points in March but no signs we are better than 3 teams at the mo. Can easily turn it around of course but 15/8 is too high IMO

Yeah, this feels different. When we've got a 6-10 point cushion and people proclaim we are likely to go down, people are right to take issue with it.

But now, given the state of our horrendous squad and the position we sit in today it's as precarious as it's been for many, many, many years. We're going to need something special 2nd half of the season, and truth be told I have no idea where that special thing is coming from without even more significant investment.

Edited 24 December, 2022 by S-Clarke

[The Left Back]

3 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

Yeah, this feels different. When we've got a 6-10 point cushion and people proclaim we are likely to go down, people are right to take issue with it.

But now, given the state of our horrendous squad and the position we sit in today it's as precarious as it's been for many, many, many years. We're going to need something special 2nd half of the season, and truth be told I have no idea where that special thing is coming from without even more significant investment.

I don’t think it’s as precarious as Spring 2018. The differences this time, IMO, are that there are no relegation certainties to rely on and we’ve got a young squad and an unknown (at this level) manager. 
 

It’s much too early to predict how this will play out. It’s going to be tough I reckon but, as I’ve said before, I trust the betting markets more than fans or pundits when it comes to forecasts. 

[SNSUN]

1 hour ago, The Left Back said:

I don’t think it’s as precarious as Spring 2018. The differences this time, IMO, are that there are no relegation certainties to rely on and we’ve got a young squad and an unknown (at this level) manager. 
 

It’s much too early to predict how this will play out. It’s going to be tough I reckon but, as I’ve said before, I trust the betting markets more than fans or pundits when it comes to forecasts. 

This is the reason I personally think it's our season to drop. There are no weak teams this year, the likes of Wolves are dropping £40 million + on International players (yes I know that's not an indication of their success but still...) and our team lacks experience and is guilty of profligacy in front of goal. On top of that we've taken a massive gamble over an unproven lower league manager. I'm not saying we're doomed...

 

 

... because we stand as much of a shot as the others to get ourselves out of it (especially if we buy in the transfer window) but right now things are not looking good. We probably need around 30 points from 23 games so we need a better than one-point-per-game ratio which we've not even hit so far.

 

I'm not going to say "We're better off in the Championship anyway" because technically we wouldn't be BUT I do think even with the odd sale we'd be in a good place squad-wise for an instant return. 

[whelk]

On the plus side Burnley are enjoying themselves this season

[IFHP]

Having seen all Saints games so far this season in person I can honestly say I haven’t seen 3 worse teams then us yet .

If Ivan Toney gets banned then Brentford could struggle a lot and be one of the teams to drop. 

We fully deserve to be 19th after 15 games . 
 

Plenty of time to turn it around though I’ve got less faith then the bookies have in us ! 

 

[gallaghert366@yahoo.com]

7 hours ago, IFHP said:

Having seen all Saints games so far this season in person I can honestly say I haven’t seen 3 worse teams then us yet .

If Ivan Toney gets banned then Brentford could struggle a lot and be one of the teams to drop. 

We fully deserve to be 19th after 15 games . 
 

Plenty of time to turn it around though I’ve got less faith then the bookies have in us ! 

 

Good for you, a true supporter. 

[beatlesaint]

1 hour ago, gallaghert366@yahoo.com said:

Good for you, a true supporter. 

He’s right though. I hope I’m wrong, obviously, but I don’t think we stand a chance in hell……..

 

That should be enough to ensure a win against Brighton. No need to thank me, Happy Christmas 😛

[stknowle]

I’m going to go right out on a limb here and say I think we might well go down this season. 

[Danbert]

Meh, we're shit but so are the others.

[adrian lord]

I reckon we were almost certainly going down with Ralph. The only thing that has changed is the advent of Jones. It's a long shot Jim, but it just might work...

[gallaghert366@yahoo.com]

27 minutes ago, Danbert said:

Meh, we're shit but so are the others.

Out of interest, how many of our current squad would be first choice for another Premier League team?

[SNSUN]

Got to be one of the favourites now surely? We've hit rock bottom, the only way is up... 🤓

[Suhari]

1 hour ago, SNSUN said:

Got to be one of the favourites now surely? We've hit rock bottom, the only way is up... 🤓

If you believe that, you might want to look away for the next month.

[whelk]

Evens now. Even that looks generous

[tisspahars]

A shade of odds against (11/10) after the Brighton debacle. The fact that we are rated (ever so slightly) more likely to stay up than go down must genuinely blow the minds of a fair few on here, I'd say. Personally, I am considerably more downbeat after yesterday than at any point thus far - I was entirely open to the idea that NJ had something about him, the players would buy into it and that a couple of decent January signings would see us absolutely fine. Yesterday, in one fell swoop, made all three of those things seem a whole lot less likely.

[Dusic]

Clearly we have been the worst side in the PL up to this point. 

Even if we were to substantially improve, who is it realistic for us to finish above?

IMO only Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and possibly Everton or Leeds.

It probably fair to say that unless we get a minimum of 3pts from the Forest & Everton games then its going to be almost impossible to stay up.

The next two games are going to be huge, surely SR will have sorted some signings as a boost for the Everton game...

[Rory Peepa]

10/11 now I see with Everton at 13/8. 
 

Forest look ok against Chelsea atm.  Crunch game. 
 

Worrying. And I don’t think we do have the squad to come right back up - far from it. 

[Lighthouse]

10 minutes ago, Rory Peepa said:

10/11 now I see with Everton at 13/8. 
 

Forest look ok against Chelsea atm.  Crunch game. 
 

Worrying. And I don’t think we do have the squad to come right back up - far from it. 

Actually, I’d say that’s exactly what we have. The likes of Adams, AA, Tella, Lyanco, Perraud etc. would all do quite well IMO. Last time we went down we had to replace Phillips, Crouch and Camara up front but we also had a lot of players who were past it and needed moving replacing. Dodd, Le Saux, Killer, Pahars, Redknapp, etc.

[gallaghert366@yahoo.com]

On 25/12/2022 at 11:32, IFHP said:

 

If Ivan Toney gets banned then Brentford could struggle a lot and be one of the teams to drop. 

 

 

 

After last night's performance they look safe.

[tisspahars]

For those that still care, around 4/7 after the latest capitulation against Forest. I don't have the time, energy or will to check but I am guessing the last time we were this short is just before Gabbiadini scored at Swansea!

[goodymatt]

I just listened to Gabby Agbonlahor on Talk Sport saying we ‘deserve’ to go down as we always sell our best players and don’t invest in our team. We have a net spend now of £84m, and sold none of our best players this summer. 

He also said that Nathan Jones will have watched us on training day one and thought ‘what have I done’ citing that his Luton team would have been of a higher quality 😂

How is this man employed, he literally knows nothing. I agree we are likely to go down but nobody can ‘deserve’ anything after 18 games. Luton better than Saints, is he a Portsmouth fan do we think?

[ErwinK1961]

9 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

I just listened to Gabby Agbonlahor on Talk Sport saying we ‘deserve’ to go down as we always sell our best players and don’t invest in our team. We have a net spend now of £84m, and sold none of our best players this summer. 

He also said that Nathan Jones will have watched us on training day one and thought ‘what have I done’ citing that his Luton team would have been of a higher quality 😂

How is this man employed, he literally knows nothing. I agree we are likely to go down but nobody can ‘deserve’ anything after 18 games. Luton better than Saints, is he a Portsmouth fan do we think?

Never trust a man who looks permanently on the verge of a sneeze.

[tisspahars]

Back out to evens following the win at Everton.

[Highfield Saint]

Palace remaining fixtures look pretty horrible. Wouldnt surprise to see them sucked into it

[JRM]

2 hours ago, Highfield Saint said:

Palace remaining fixtures look pretty horrible. Wouldnt surprise to see them sucked into it

Tonight will be interesting, they often do well against Man Utd, if they lose that at home hopefully we can make some ground on them over the next few games 

[tisspahars]

4/5 after the defeat to Villa. Given if the JWP had stood and we had gone on to win, we would currently be 16th, with 18 games to go, having seen precious little opportunity thus far from our two big January signings and with more to come.....it is somewhere between funny and tragic to see the return of the "we are 100% down" brigade. I know people struggle to deal with uncertainty but jeez....Here's a spoiler alert for you....

We are in a precarious position and it is certainly possible we may go down but it is far from certain. I guarantee you that in TEN games time that will still be the case.

[tisspahars]

Interestingly (to me at least) the woes at Everton mean there is now a distinct difference in the market between us and them. Despite being above us (albeit on GD) they are 4/7 to go down and we remain 4/5.

[whelk]

I am sure you can make more money just backing Saints opponent every time than lumping on odds that have to wait to May to collect.

often mid table teams are 3/1 or thereabouts when Saints are at home. We lose far more than one in four

[The Left Back]

2 hours ago, whelk said:

I am sure you can make more money just backing Saints opponent every time than lumping on odds that have to wait to May to collect.

often mid table teams are 3/1 or thereabouts when Saints are at home. We lose far more than one in four

Conversely if you were to have backed us to win every home game this season you'd be ahead right now.  12/1 against Man City and 5/1 v Chelsea almost covers the whole season. It doesn't feel like it though

[Turkish]

Maybe this is the real reason why everton are in trouble 

[egg]

Just now, Turkish said:

Maybe this is the real reason why everton are in trouble 

Jesus Christ! 

Tom Davies left? Calvert Lewin right? Who's that in the middle with Lego man hair? 

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, egg said:

Jesus Christ! 

Tom Davies left? Calvert Lewin right? Who's that in the middle with Lego man hair? 

Anthony Gordon isn’t it?

[egg]

Just now, Turkish said:

Anthony Gordon isn’t it?

Dunno, couldn't tell. That is an abomination of a hair do thou - glad I'm bald if it avoids a barber doing that to me. 

[S-Clarke]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

Jesus Christ! 

Tom Davies left? Calvert Lewin right? Who's that in the middle with Lego man hair? 

Antony Gordon, looks like Claire Balding.

[Turkish]

1 minute ago, egg said:

Dunno, couldn't tell. That is an abomination of a hair do thou - glad I'm bald if it avoids a barber doing that to me. 

Calvert Lewin is dressed like a school girl going to a funeral 

[tisspahars]

Around 1/2 after a dismal day with another horrific performance at Brentford and surprising wins for several of our relegation rivals. Also, for those claiming "that must be Jones gone now" the market would suggest there is very little chance of that happening.

[tisspahars]

2/7 after defeat to Wolves.

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, tisspahars said:

2/7 after defeat to Wolves.

Surprised they are still offering odds.

[Whitey Grandad]

37 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Surprised they are still offering odds.

That depends on The Replacement I suppose.

[tisspahars]

What a difference a win at Stamford Bridge makes to everything, including the betting.......2/7 becomes 4/7.....👀

[tisspahars]

And 4/7 becomes 2/5 after a back down to Earth day at Leeds.

[whelk]

If I had the spare cash £500k down to win £200k is easy money.40% return for just over 3 month’s investment 

[tisspahars]

With all due respect and stuff 😉I think it's hard to be objective when it's your team. I suspect you thought similar after the Wolves loss but if you had had a huge wedge of money to put on at that point, then after last week's win at Stamford Bridge you would have been left thinking "F*** me! There's a chance I've just done my life savings in here". Most Saints fans are pretty despondent after yesterday, a fair chunk do seem to think we're definitely going down - and of course they may well be right - but Everton fans won't be feeling great this morning, or Bournemouth fans or even Notts Forest fans, whilst Leeds and West Ham fans were feeling the same way before yesterday's games. If (and although it's a big if it's really not that unlikely) we progress to the FA Cup QF this week then beat Leicester all of a sudden the feeling is "Game on!" again. People don't like uncertainty which is why you get so many "That's it, we're 100% down!" moments - which is kind of the reason I've done these threads for the last few years - but the truth is 2/5 is about the right price, we are likely to go down but far from certain and it is likely to stay that way for quite a while yet.

[CB Fry]

23 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

With all due respect and stuff 😉I think it's hard to be objective when it's your team. I suspect you thought similar after the Wolves loss but if you had had a huge wedge of money to put on at that point, then after last week's win at Stamford Bridge you would have been left thinking "F*** me! There's a chance I've just done my life savings in here". Most Saints fans are pretty despondent after yesterday, a fair chunk do seem to think we're definitely going down - and of course they may well be right - but Everton fans won't be feeling great this morning, or Bournemouth fans or even Notts Forest fans, whilst Leeds and West Ham fans were feeling the same way before yesterday's games. If (and although it's a big if it's really not that unlikely) we progress to the FA Cup QF this week then beat Leicester all of a sudden the feeling is "Game on!" again. People don't like uncertainty which is why you get so many "That's it, we're 100% down!" moments - which is kind of the reason I've done these threads for the last few years - but the truth is 2/5 is about the right price, we are likely to go down but far from certain and it is likely to stay that way for quite a while yet.

It doesn't matter what all those fans think today or yesterday.

Bournemouth are going down with us, Forest aren't going to go down now.

Forest's form can fall off a cliff because they only need relegation form for the rest of the season to stay up (they need less than a point a game now). Saints need top 8 form to achieve the same thing. 

Forest have got enough points in the tank to survive now, we haven't.

We can beat Leicester next week, great. We're still going down because that win will keep us bottom or second bottom. 

You can pretend it is just a knee jerk reaction to particular results and you can pretend you are the objective one but sorry not the case. You can see it in the numbers.

It's not an "objective" view that our form is going to switch from worst in the league to top 8 level just because we wish it so.

Sorry I need to stop going on about it. But the obvious point to make is the true "believers" that think we are going to stay up would think exactly the same if we were in Forest's position (still only six points off top 10!!) or West Ham's position (we've just spanked Forest!!) or Leeds position (we've just won a criticalgame under our new manager!!). So not that objective.

Edited 26 February, 2023 by CB Fry

[tisspahars]

We may have to agree to disagree on objectivity - I think we are considerably more likely to go down that stay up but that it is far from certain. I'd say that is pretty objective. And things can change - look not only the mood on here after Chelsea compared with after Wolves but, for an example in reverse, Saints under Ralph producing table-topping form from August to November and relegation form for most of the rest of that season!

[S-Clarke]

32 minutes ago, tisspahars said:

We may have to agree to disagree on objectivity - I think we are considerably more likely to go down that stay up but that it is far from certain. I'd say that is pretty objective. And things can change - look not only the mood on here after Chelsea compared with after Wolves but, for an example in reverse, Saints under Ralph producing table-topping form from August to November and relegation form for most of the rest of that season!

I have too looked back at that huge swing in form under Ralph, but do you know what the difference really was? Ings. Danny ings. Goals. Armanda Broja. Goals.

We don't have Ings or Broja anymore, we also don't have goals. I don't think we're playing badly in a defensive sense but we don't score goals and are seemingly incapable of doing so. So whilst our form did flip, and it shows it's possible, it's because we had a 20 goal striker in our side to bail us out when we gave away goals (which we were still doing by the way)

Edited 26 February, 2023 by S-Clarke