What is realistic for Saints?

[Dusic]

As research has suggested, the biggest link to league position is spend on wages.

As you can see here, our wage position (2021) is 14th and our final league position was 15th.

In previous years its been our turn to defy the odds, as the likes of Brentford and Brighton did this season.

Clearly our run since March is unacceptable, but ultimately we have finished about where our financial power says we should.

Is it really realistic to expected that next season we should be finishing above any/many of the likes of Villa, Wolves, Leicester, Everton, West Ham or Newcastle? I think the answer to that is no given what they spend compared to us. The fact three of those teams are considering paying James Tarkowski over 100k a week highlights the gulf.

So essentially we will be competing with Brighton (huge net spend since promotion to PL), Palace, Brentford and possibly Leeds, plus the three promoted teams. (Incidentally Leeds are already about to spend £28m on a player).

Of course we all want to see progress, but so do other teams, and many of those actually spend to get that progress up the table.

Questions:
- Should we feel entitled to more than a lower mid table finish?

- Is it a fair statement to say that a top 10 finish now is far, far harder than when we did it under Poch and Koeman?

- Is it getting to a stage where the PL is largely too rich for us?

 

[SaintTex]

Maybe expect better signings. 7 of our top 9 biggest signings ever are not currently on the team.

1. Ings £22.59m (19/20)

2. Vestergaard £22.50m (18/19)

3. Sadio Mané £20.70m (14/15)

4. Guido Carrillo £19.80m (17/18)

5. Sofiane Boufal £16.83m (16/17)

6. Mo Elyounoussi £16.20m (18/19)

7. Adam Armstrong £15.93m (21/22)

8. Mario Lemina £15.53m (17/18)

9. Manolo Gabbiadini £15.30m (16/17)

for comparison.. Liverpool has 9 of their top 10 record signings still on their roster.

 

and as far as record signings go for the 20 PL clubs, we rank 16th on record transfer fee amount with Ings (£22.59m) . Only these clubs have a lower record signing than Saints

• 17. Brighton £20.70m (4 of their top 5 signings are still on their roster)
• 18. Burney £15.21m
• 19. Brentford £14.13m (4 of their top 5 signings are still on their roster)
• 20. Norwich £9.90m

2 relegated, 1 finished 6 points better, 1 finished 11 points better

 

 

 

 

Edited 23 May, 2022 by SaintTex

[SaintTex]

i think it is fair to say :

Everton and Man U underachieved

Brighton and Brentford overachieved

and everybody else, for the most part, met expectations.

 

Edited 23 May, 2022 by SaintTex

[S-Clarke]

I think the PL has drastically evolved in the last 6/7 years, we've certainly been left behind in the financial stakes and we are finding it hard to compete. This summer will bare the truth of our takeover and if it actually does bring us closer to the action, but it's certainly not got any easier as compared to last summer Newcastle have also moved away from us.

I know our moto has been ''We never stand still, we march on'', but it's quite odd to use that because we have been stood firmly still for at least 6 years. We've not been marching anywhere.

I'm not expecting us to go and compete with Villa or Newcastle on huge statement signings, but what I now expect is for us to be competitive with other teams in 'our' league and make a try for players like Cucurella, Guehi, Anderson, Raphinia (I'm not suggesting them now, more so getting them before those clubs did). They're arriving at clubs 'in our region' for the £20m mark and we have bought in that region before, but our scouting was way, way off. 

Under Les Reed and co we got a bit up ourselves and started to congratulate ourselves at every opportunity, that lead to us taking our eye off of the main reason for our previous success - sharp scouting. As was pointed out above, we did invest money but clubs like us need those big signings to come off. Those signings were made to improve us and then provide a profit so we can go again. They did neither and we had to give them away in the end.

We've lost the majority of those now, the big earners off the wage bill and I'd assume any 'instalments' for those guys long paid up. So in essence this summer is our first chance of a clean slate, not just with new players but with new ownership as well. We have to show some intent to compete in this league again with better scouting, otherwise yes - the league is too rich for us.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by S-Clarke

[Sunglasses Ron]

It’s our sheer inconsistency that’s maddening:

> If you knew at the start of the season that we wouldn’t be in any danger of being relegated, would be undefeated against the eventual champions and had great wins away to the likes of West Ham and Tottenham you’d probably be quite happy.

> Conversely, if you knew we’d lose to Norwich, Watford and Burnley, go on a dreadful run of results spanning a third of the season and get dicked 0-6 at home you’d probably not be happy.

And there lies the anomaly that is Saints’ season just gone.

Perception!

[Wurzel]

Not relevant to now, but back in the pre-Premier League days when a clubs income was gate receipts and whatever we got for the odd MotD appearance, how the hell did we afford to pay Keegan, Ball, Channon, Osgood, Shilton, Mills, Watson, et al , some of them whilst in Div. 2. I'm well aware wages were nothing like the level they are know but they must have been some of the top football earners in the country.

Whoever was the club accountant back in those days should be first on our list of summer signings.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by Wurzel

[Saint Matty 76]

9 minutes ago, Sunglasses Ron said:

It’s our sheer inconsistency that’s maddening:

> If you knew at the start of the season that we wouldn’t be in any danger of being relegated, would be undefeated against the eventual champions and had great wins away to the likes of West Ham and Tottenham you’d probably be quite happy.

> Conversely, if you knew we’d lose to Norwich, Watford and Burnley, go on a dreadful run of results spanning a third of the season and get dicked 0-6 at home you’d probably not be happy.

And there lies the anomaly that is Saints’ season just gone.

Perception!

Yeah, this is something I tried to say a few weeks ago but it's hard to voice it correctly when you're in the midst of such bad form.

I do really still think we're overachieving with the ambition shown from the club in the past 3-5 years.

[Disco Stu]

The wages gives you an idea of expected finish but when you really dissect our results this season, it doesn't explain our defeats to all of the teams below us on that wage table does it?

 

Except the two draws to Brighton although the 90+8 equaliser at home sure made it feel like a defeat.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by Disco Stu

[S-Clarke]

4 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

The wages gives you an idea of expected finish but when you really dissect our results this season, it doesn't explain our defeats to all of the teams below us on that wage table does it?

Swings and roundabouts though isn't it, on the other hand our wage bill shouldn't even give us a chance of getting two points against City or two points against Utd.

[saint1977]

38 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

I think the PL has drastically evolved in the last 6/7 years, we've certainly been left behind in the financial stakes and we are finding it hard to compete. This summer will bare the truth of our takeover and if it actually does bring us closer to the action, but it's certainly not got any easier as compared to last summer Newcastle have also moved away from us.

I know our moto has been ''We never stand still, we march on'', but it's quite odd to use that because we have been stood firmly still for at least 6 years. We've not been marching anywhere.

I'm not expecting us to go and compete with Villa or Newcastle on huge statement signings, but what I now expect is for us to be competitive with other teams in 'our' league and make a try for players like Cucurella, Guehi, Anderson, Raphinia (I'm not suggesting them now, more so getting them before those clubs did). They're arriving at clubs 'in our region' for the £20m mark and we have bought in that region before, but our scouting was way, way off. 

Under Les Reed and co we got a bit up ourselves and started to congratulate ourselves at every opportunity, that lead to us taking our eye off of the main reason for our previous success - sharp scouting. As was pointed out above, we did invest money but clubs like us need those big signings to come off. Those signings were made to improve us and then provide a profit so we can go again. They did neither and we had to give them away in the end.

We've lost the majority of those now, the big earners off the wage bill and I'd assume any 'instalments' for those guys long paid up. So in essence this summer is our first chance of a clean slate, not just with new players but with new ownership as well. We have to show some intent to compete in this league again with better scouting, otherwise yes - the league is too rich for us.

Post of the week and encapsulates exactly my thoughts as well. Some posters on here, who I respect a lot, have said about the debt but hence the rock bottom price of £100m. Semmens has always stated that debt servicing and transfer budgets aren’t linked so time that statement was delivered on. I don’t expect us to compete with Newcastle, Villa or W Ham but Brighton, Brentford, Palace, Fulham, Bournemouth, Forest as a minimum yes. A lot of the cart horses that Les and Ross squandered are gone, still in the PL, TV money and I suspect JWP might move on for a top 4 club (sadly). So a clean slate and time to give this squad a huge sort out, start with the spine and one 10, and then next 2-3 windows the Tino type prospects can be gradually added then.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by saint1977

[Disco Stu]

21 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Swings and roundabouts though isn't it, on the other hand our wage bill shouldn't even give us a chance of getting two points against City or two points against Utd.

No it shouldn't but we proved we could. That's what is so infuriating. We gain points against teams with quadruple our wages but fail to those that spend less than us. Nothing is gained. We can't rely on taking points from the top 6 for survival. Norwich (3 points), Watford (1 point), Burnley (3 points), Leeds (3 points), Brentford (3 points), Brighton (2 points) are where we would have been expected to secure our survival this season judging by that wage table but that hasn't happened. That's 15 points from a possible 36. It's realistic to expect more.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by Disco Stu

[Dusic]

11 minutes ago, Disco Stu said:

No it shouldn't but we proved we could. That's what is so infuriating. We gain points against teams with quadruple our wages but fail to those that spend less than us. Nothing is gained. We can't rely on taking points from the top 6 for survival. Norwich (3 points), Watford (1 point), Burnley (3 points), Leeds (3 points), Brentford (3 points), Brighton (2 points) are where we would have been expected to secure our survival this season judging by that wage table but that hasn't happened. That's 15 points from a possible 36. It's realistic to expect more.

But the wage bill linkage is also indicative of squad depth, i.e you pay more so you have more players of a certain level of quality. 

In a one off game, with a week to prepare and with a full strength line up we can be good and can take points of those teams.

But, especially in the 2nd half of the season those conditions rarely happen and we don't have the depth of quality to easily beat the teams supposedly worse than us, or compete with those better.

You only have to look at the bench at Leicester. More than half either won't be here next season or shouldn't be.

We are a team that drops massively in quality if we miss one or two starting XI players.

[Disco Stu]

44 minutes ago, Dusic said:

But the wage bill linkage is also indicative of squad depth, i.e you pay more so you have more players of a certain level of quality. 

In a one off game, with a week to prepare and with a full strength line up we can be good and can take points of those teams.

But, especially in the 2nd half of the season those conditions rarely happen and we don't have the depth of quality to easily beat the teams supposedly worse than us, or compete with those better.

You only have to look at the bench at Leicester. More than half either won't be here next season or shouldn't be.

We are a team that drops massively in quality if we miss one or two starting XI players.

Our squad depth is no worse than the teams I listed and we've had a relatively injury free season. Ralph himself said he was happy with the squad depth in August:

Quote

"We need every player this season for sure. It's a long season and last season we were a little bit short of numbers, to be honest.

“Now we have a wider squad, a bigger squad and in the end a lot of games are coming up so everyone must bring themselves in the best physical and mental condition to help us.”

And again in February:

Quote

“Even if we do make a lot of changes or a few, we have a very, very balanced squad at the moment, so I don’t see the big difference,” Hasenhuttl said.

“We have 22 players nearly on one level and this is a very good opportunity for me to give everybody a chance."

We had a full squad to choose from in most of those games and I'm sure the teams I listed have had their own issues regarding injury's. Leeds missing Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips when we played, Burnley missing Ben Mee with a leg fracture when we played ect... I'm sure there are other examples I can't recall. We were still dire in those games. All the teams are in the same boat regarding fixture congestion and they're spending less on wages than us.

Edited 23 May, 2022 by Disco Stu

[Kenilworthy]

Even with our resources I don't think it is hopelessly ambitious to think that we could have got an extra six to 10 points this season that would have had us nearer the top of bottom 10. That would only have needed managing the home game against a defeated Brighton and turning the defeats against the truly dreadful Watford and Norwich into wins. Failure in those games was down to the manager rather than the players.