Cost of Living

[Crab Lungs]

30 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

According to some Government ministers, yes, that has been their advice. It is yet another indication of how out of touch with reality they are, or possibly the level of contempt they hold towards most of us.

I’m seeing that now. 
what annoys me is that I need a bit of a break, some help yet can’t get it. I’ve always paid in, paid my way etc but it’s not available to me but is to others in a far better position than myself on effectively, a technicality.

Actually considering selling up and going somewhere, anywhere else and starting a new. 

[whelk]

1 hour ago, Crab Lungs said:

I’m seeing that now. 
what annoys me is that I need a bit of a break, some help yet can’t get it. I’ve always paid in, paid my way etc but it’s not available to me but is to others in a far better position than myself on effectively, a technicality.

Actually considering selling up and going somewhere, anywhere else and starting a new. 

Have you got any equity? My advice would be to sell now as can’t see house prices doing anything but dropping

[Crab Lungs]

54 minutes ago, whelk said:

Have you got any equity? My advice would be to sell now as can’t see house prices doing anything but dropping

Yeah, a little. Thank you for he advice. Had to extend the lease too (it’s effectively a maisonette) which cost a pretty penny and has taken time and an absolute necessity.

 

then all this happened.. 😬

[skintsaint]

4 hours ago, Crab Lungs said:

Actually considering selling up and going somewhere, anywhere else and starting a new. 

Where would you go? Stupid rising living costs are happening in most places I believe.

[Weston Super Saint]

4 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Where would you go? Stupid rising living costs are happening in most places I believe.

Parents?  Wait for it to settle down, buy something else when it does when the prices come down.....

[rallyboy]

I'm not convinced house prices will drop far enough to make it a buyer's market - but if that does happen, when it hits a certain level there will be thousands of people ready to jump and you'll struggle to get back in.

If you have managed to get a foothold on the housing ladder and you weren't intending to sell, don't surrender it lightly.

🙂

 

[skintsaint]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Parents?  Wait for it to settle down, buy something else when it does when the prices come down.....

Good call 😆

[Weston Super Saint]

15 minutes ago, rallyboy said:

I'm not convinced house prices will drop far enough to make it a buyer's market - but if that does happen, when it hits a certain level there will be thousands of people ready to jump and you'll struggle to get back in.

If you have managed to get a foothold on the housing ladder and you weren't intending to sell, don't surrender it lightly.

🙂

 

Parents, rent house, cover any shortfall in mortgage if any. Keep the asset and have most if not all the mortgage paid???

[whelk]

Don’t dare try and do something to redistribute. These are the wealth creators

 

[Turkish]

5 hours ago, whelk said:

Don’t dare try and do something to redistribute. These are the wealth creators

 

So that's a nice $29b profit so far this year from them.

$9b in Q1, $11b in Q2.

$29b of profit is 3/4s or a year, whilst fuel is at record high levels and people cant heat their homes. 

[Turkish]

On a brighter note the cost of gas is rapidly coming down, 70% cheaper than the height in august. I’m sure we’ll soon see this passed on to our energy bills. 
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/europe-natural-gas-prices-plunge/index.html

 

[Weston Super Saint]

8 hours ago, Turkish said:

On a brighter note the cost of gas is rapidly coming down, 70% cheaper than the height in august. I’m sure we’ll soon see this passed on to our energy bills. 
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/europe-natural-gas-prices-plunge/index.html

 

My guess is April....

[badgerx16]

2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

My guess is April....

Which year ?

[Turkish]

2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

My guess is April....

Some reports saying we might not see the benefit until 2024. Next year we can look forward to our providers posting record profits into the billions like the oil companies have been this year. I’m sure the news that the company are so success who supply families who have to choose to eat or heat will be a small crumb of comfort

[farawaysaint]

With the cost of funerals now it’s probably slightly cheaper being alive than being dead so there are small mercies. 

[buctootim]

12 hours ago, Turkish said:

On a brighter note the cost of gas is rapidly coming down, 70% cheaper than the height in august. I’m sure we’ll soon see this passed on to our energy bills. 
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/europe-natural-gas-prices-plunge/index.html

 

The price briefly dipping on spot prices for delivery in 20 minutes doesnt indicate much. The prices for delivery in 3 or 6 months which count - and that is 20-30 time higher than a couple of years ago 

  

[Weston Super Saint]

BP triple their profits against the same period last year reporting £7.1bn profit for 3 months.  Meanwhile the cost of fuel is on the up again and the Government rule out a windfall tax!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63468313

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

BP triple their profits against the same period last year reporting £7.1bn profit for 3 months.  Meanwhile the cost of fuel is on the up again and the Government rule out a windfall tax!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63468313

insane numbers isn't it and it's been that way for these companies all year, Shell just announced $9b profit, earlier this year they announced Q1 profits of $8b. Eon i think announced $4b. Their snouts are all in the trough whilst people have to decided to eat or turn the gas on. Shameful

[Weston Super Saint]

No problem with raising taxes for the ordinary folk though, just as long as it doesn't affect the dividends of their share portfolios!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63465935

Quote

A Treasury source said across-the-board tax hikes were "inevitable," adding: "It is going to be rough".

The department has not put a figure on what it calls the "fiscal black hole" facing the UK, the BBC has previously been told it may be at least £50bn.

 

[Turkish]

47 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

No problem with raising taxes for the ordinary folk though, just as long as it doesn't affect the dividends of their share portfolios!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63465935

 

I’m sure I read somewhere that 10% of that 50 billion could come from the windfall tax alone. 

[buctootim]

On 01/11/2022 at 13:12, Turkish said:

I’m sure I read somewhere that 10% of that 50 billion could come from the windfall tax alone. 

Way more than 10%. Because the price of electricity is tied to the price of gas its not just companies like BP and Shell which have massive windfall profits but all the electricity generators too, including renewables. So wind power got three times more expensive because the price of gas went up. How crazy is that?   

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

..... wind power got three times more expensive because the price of gas went up.....

I'm sure there's a fart joke in there somewhere.

[Holmes_and_Watson]

Can't afford a fart joke now. 🙂

[buctootim]

3 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

I'm sure there's a fart joke in there somewhere.

Nah thats still gas 😊

[whelk]

Seems to be wide acceptance that £50/60bn black hole and taxes need to rise which is going to hit people even harder in terms of cost of living. Don’t hear much challenge of this ‘black hole’ that has suddenly appeared when previously we were going to get tax cuts. 
so been buttered up with language of ‘eye watering’ decisions and no talk of helping people through cost of living crisis and just suck it up. This has all come from market speculation and fucking idiot Tories. 

Edited 14 November, 2022 by whelk

[badgerx16]

9 minutes ago, whelk said:

Seems to be wide acceptance that £50/60bn black hole and taxes need to rise which is going to hit people even harder in terms of cost of living. Don’t hear much challenge of this ‘black hole’ that has suddenly appeared when previously we were going to get tax cuts. 
so been buttered up with language of ‘eye watering’ decisions and no talk of helping people through cost of living crisis and just suck it up. This has all come from market speculation and fucking idiot Tories. 

Some alternative views, from some surprising fellow travellers;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11414971/50bn-fiscal-black-hole-calculated-artificial-uncertain-manner-economists-claim.html

 "Fiscal black hole of £50bn is a myth because it was calculated in 'artificial and uncertain' manner, economists claim "

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/13/dont-be-taken-in-by-50bn-fiscal-hole-dodgy-tory-metaphor

"........But there is no objectively measured “hole”. What Hunt is describing is the gap between how big the OBR forecasts the national debt will be in the future and where he would like it to be according to his own rules; at the moment, the government says it wants the size of the national debt to be falling relative to the size of the economy within three years.

This rule is a political choice."

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/11/fiscal-black-hole-myth-justify-austerity

"The “fiscal black hole” is a dangerous myth to justify austerity

Imposing unnecessary spending cuts would trap the UK in an economic doom loop."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63573989

"A group of economists has questioned UK assertions that a "black hole" in the public finances will need to be filled with austerity measures and tax rises.

The centre-left Progressive Economy Forum said the £50bn "hole" disappears entirely if the debts are calculated differently.

The government previously used a different measure of debt, returning to that would leave £14bn spare, they say."

 

Edited 14 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[buctootim]

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/13/dont-be-taken-in-by-50bn-fiscal-hole-dodgy-tory-metaphor

"........But there is no objectively measured “hole”. What Hunt is describing is the gap between how big the OBR forecasts the national debt will be in the future and where he would like it to be according to his own rules; at the moment, the government says it wants the size of the national debt to be falling relative to the size of the economy within three years.

This rule is a political choice."

 

 

Thats true but its also a sensible responsible choice. We never paid back the debt built up as a result of the financial crisis and have been adding to it ever since with Brexit and Covid. With interest rates increasing due to worry over ability to pay back debt unless we make a start now there is a risk of getting sucked into an ever worsening whirlpool. 

Edited 14 November, 2022 by buctootim

[whelk]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Some alternative views, from some surprising fellow travellers;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11414971/50bn-fiscal-black-hole-calculated-artificial-uncertain-manner-economists-claim.html

 "Fiscal black hole of £50bn is a myth because it was calculated in 'artificial and uncertain' manner, economists claim "

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/13/dont-be-taken-in-by-50bn-fiscal-hole-dodgy-tory-metaphor

"........But there is no objectively measured “hole”. What Hunt is describing is the gap between how big the OBR forecasts the national debt will be in the future and where he would like it to be according to his own rules; at the moment, the government says it wants the size of the national debt to be falling relative to the size of the economy within three years.

This rule is a political choice."

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2022/11/fiscal-black-hole-myth-justify-austerity

"The “fiscal black hole” is a dangerous myth to justify austerity

Imposing unnecessary spending cuts would trap the UK in an economic doom loop."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63573989

"A group of economists has questioned UK assertions that a "black hole" in the public finances will need to be filled with austerity measures and tax rises.

The centre-left Progressive Economy Forum said the £50bn "hole" disappears entirely if the debts are calculated differently.

The government previously used a different measure of debt, returning to that would leave £14bn spare, they say."

 

 cheers Badger

good summary analysis here as well

 

[whelk]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/13/dont-be-taken-in-by-50bn-fiscal-hole-dodgy-tory-metaphor

"........But there is no objectively measured “hole”. What Hunt is describing is the gap between how big the OBR forecasts the national debt will be in the future and where he would like it to be according to his own rules; at the moment, the government says it wants the size of the national debt to be falling relative to the size of the economy within three years.

This rule is a political choice."

 

 

Thats true but its also a sensible responsible choice. We never paid back the debt built up as a result of the financial crisis and have been adding to it ever since with Brexit and Covid. With interest rates increasing due to worry over ability to pay back debt unless we make a start now there is a risk of getting sucked into an ever worsening whirlpool. 

But in Newsnight summary above not all G7 countries are following our approach to such deadlines

[buctootim]

10 minutes ago, whelk said:

But in Newsnight summary above not all G7 countries are following our approach to such deadlines

Yep I do get that, but the other G7 countries havent gone so far down the debt rabbit hole as we have. Agree its generally much better to cut taxes and more public spending during a recession and raise taxes to repay debt when the economy is booming. Trouble is the UK has screwed itself by running huge budget deficits for so long there is no safety cushion left. If we put paying the bill off any longer there is a danger funding the debt becomes impossible as interest rates rise and the pound collapses.   

Edited 14 November, 2022 by buctootim

[revolution saint]

33 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Yep I do get that, but the other G7 countries havent gone so far down the debt rabbit hole as we have. Agree its generally much better to cut taxes and more public spending during a recession and raise taxes to repay debt when the economy is booming. Trouble is the UK has screwed itself by running huge budget deficits for so long there is no safety cushion left. If we put paying the bill off any longer there is a danger funding the debt becomes impossible as interest rates rise and the pound collapses.   

I'm no economist but is that actually true?  From what I can see our debt to GDP ratio is quite low in comparison to many other countries (ours is 80.7% whereas France - 98.1%, US - 107%, Italy 135%, Japan - 237%) source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt

Debt is a funny old thing anyway. UK institutions and individuals own about 75% of our debt so those interest payments are helping some parts of the economy/society such as UK financial institutions and pensions.

Obviously in a perfect world we'd have much less debt though.

[buctootim]

22 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

I'm no economist but is that actually true?  From what I can see our debt to GDP ratio is quite low in comparison to many other countries (ours is 80.7% whereas France - 98.1%, US - 107%, Italy 135%, Japan - 237%) source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt

Debt is a funny old thing anyway. UK institutions and individuals own about 75% of our debt so those interest payments are helping some parts of the economy/society such as UK financial institutions and pensions.

Obviously in a perfect world we'd have much less debt though.

I think it depends on what you include, what you leave out, and what exact period the figures are for. Im no economist either but as far as I understand it UK figures dont include things such as PFI debt and the public pension liabilities which other countries count. Even the Government though admit UK public debt is over 100%, a figure which will increase further with new borrowing and if there is a recession and GDP drops.   New borrowing is adding to the already huge pile - £44 billion just in Q2 this year. . 

• UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, equivalent to 101.9% of gross domestic product (GDP).

• UK general government deficit (or net borrowing) was £43.9 billion in Quarter 2 2022, equivalent to 7.2% of GDP.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/june2022

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/04/now-britain-is-in-the-100-debt-to-gdp-club-whats-the-spending-plan

Edited 14 November, 2022 by buctootim

[revolution saint]

14 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I think it depends on what you include, what you leave out, and what exact period the figures are for. Im no economist either but as far as I understand it UK figures dont include things such as PFI debt and the public pension liabilities which other countries count. Even the Government though admit UK public debt is over 100%, a figure which will increase further with new borrowing and if there is a recession and GDP drops.   New borrowing is adding to the already huge pile - £44 billion just in Q2 this year. . 

• UK general government gross debt was £2,436.7 billion at the end of Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, equivalent to 101.9% of gross domestic product (GDP).

• UK general government deficit (or net borrowing) was £43.9 billion in Quarter 2 2022, equivalent to 7.2% of GDP.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/june2022

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/04/now-britain-is-in-the-100-debt-to-gdp-club-whats-the-spending-plan

Cheers although even those links seem to suggest we're not in a worse position than many of the rest of the G7.  I guess it depends how a lot of the debt is structured as well.

[Turkish]

so it feels like being on death row today waiting for Jeremy Hunts statement......

[Turkish]

45p tax threshold down to £125k. Bet quite a few on here are effected by that. 

[whelk]

Just caught Hunt boasting of their record over last 12 years. Twat is tone deaf. 
Reeves impressive.

[Fan The Flames]

The chicken shops of London are doing a geat job keeping their price rises to a minimum. 

[Jeremy Corbyn]

56 minutes ago, Turkish said:

45p tax threshold down to £125k. Bet quite a few on here are effected by that. 

Quite a shift from Trussecnomics

[egg]

32 minutes ago, whelk said:

Just caught Hunt boasting of their record over last 12 years. Twat is tone deaf. 
Reeves impressive.

What did Reeves say that she'd have done differently? Seems to me that he was about as balanced as he could be given the shit we're in.

[Turkish]

8 minutes ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

Quite a shift from Trussecnomics

Isn't it just. Funny how they're almost pretending none of that ever happened. 

[Fan The Flames]

Can we blame Brexit yet.

[whelk]

15 minutes ago, egg said:

What did Reeves say that she'd have done differently? Seems to me that he was about as balanced as he could be given the shit we're in.

Why are we in the shit?

[badgerx16]

33 minutes ago, whelk said:

Why are we in the shit?

Probably Russia, possibly COVID, maybe a little bit of Brexit, but most definitely not 12 years of Tory Governments.

Edited 17 November, 2022 by badgerx16

[buctootim]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Probably Russia, possibly COVID, maybe a little bit of Brexit, but most definitely not 12 years of Tory Governments.

George Osbourne, Chancellor under Cameron was somebody I considered to be a fairly average politician at the time. He was on tv with Andrew Neil last week commenting on economic policy of the past six or seven years. His analysis of the recent crop of shite made him look like a bona fide Collossus by comparison.  

Edited 17 November, 2022 by buctootim

[whelk]

Lap up the good news boys. No other choices my arse

 

[whelk]

43 minutes ago, buctootim said:

George Osbourne, Chancellor under Cameron was somebody I considered to be a fairly average politician at the time. He was on tv with Andrew Neil last week commenting on economic policy of the past six or seven years. His analysis of the recent crop of shite made him look like a bona fide Collossus by comparison.  

Although he was the simpleton with his credit card analogy for a country economy. He started this spiral of decaying services and very much an ideology. Many Tories agree as well.

[egg]

3 hours ago, whelk said:

Why are we in the shit?

I cba with a debate as to why. We are. The discussion should be the way out of it. We can't borrow more. We can't spend much less. We can't tax much more, at least from the masses. 

[RedArmy]

At least we didn’t cancel the £50bn HS2 project to fill the £50bn hole in the countries finances. God knows how we’d live without that too! 

[egg]

9 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

At least we didn’t cancel the £50bn HS2 project to fill the £50bn hole in the countries finances. God knows how we’d live without that too! 

That project is, and always was, a farce. Complete waste of money from the start. I'd imagine the costs of breaking contracts mean we're stuck with it. Expect the inevitable £25b + overspend. 

[badgerx16]

11 minutes ago, egg said:

That project is, and always was, a farce. Complete waste of money from the start. I'd imagine the costs of breaking contracts mean we're stuck with it. Expect the inevitable £25b + overspend. 

The cross-Pennine routes are far more economically important than extending the commuter radius for people working in London, particularly since the increase in WFH over the last 3 years.

Edited 17 November, 2022 by badgerx16