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Relegation


kraftwerk26
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1 hour ago, Tom & Gerry said:

OK fine if that's what you believe great. I'm just of a more nervous disposition when it comes to following Saints and I'm sure I'm not alone. I'm not trying to boost or dent anyones confidence, just give what I see as a realistic appraisal of the situation and you don't. I wonder why if you are so confident that you choose to misrepresent what I've said. All 3 teams in question don't have to win every game.

Burnley have to win 2 from 3 -do able on their recent  form prior to last Saturday.

Everton 2 wins from 4 or probably 5 points - very do able.

Leeds 7 points from 3 - less do able, but if they were to beat Chelsea the odds would shorten and you wouldn't be getting 60/1 from the bookies on Saints staying up.

For all 3 to happen would be remarkable, but remarkable things happen in sport , that's all I'm  saying.

Of course if Chelsea beat Leeds then the scales will be lifted from my eyes and I like you will become a believer, and I will be very happy for you to tell me, I told you so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's funny how in your head they "remarkable things happen in sport" can easily assume that 17-defeat, 74 goals conceded Leeds getting 2 wins and a draw in 3.

But no scenario sees Saints getting a single, solitary point. Is that just too remarkable for you to imagine?

 

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40 minutes ago, Dorchester Saint said:

I think the Liverpool game will be an irrelevance, I believe we’ll be safe by then after Leeds lose to Chelsea and Brighton. 

If they lose to Chelsea then we're essentially safe as their goal difference is so bad.  Unless something crazy were to happen like we lose 10-0 to Liverpool.

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44 minutes ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

Unless something crazy were to happen like we lose 10-0 to Liverpool.

Yeah there's no way a Saints team in poor form under RH could ever lose by such a big margin so that definitely won't happen.

Oh, hang on...

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1 hour ago, CB Fry said:

It's funny how in your head they "remarkable things happen in sport" can easily assume that 17-defeat, 74 goals conceded Leeds getting 2 wins and a draw in 3.

But no scenario sees Saints getting a single, solitary point. Is that just too remarkable for you to imagine?

 

No not at all. With Saints anything is possible.

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1 hour ago, Saint Garrett said:

Imagine if Leeds beat Chelsea, which could easily happen given they just lost to Everton...

I’m imagining it… and they’ll still need to win at least 1 more game and get a draw in the other to go above us. 

In the unlikely event they put a run of wins together, which hasn’t happened all season,  Burnley and Everton (more likely as they have good players), would still need to pick up 2 results for us to drop. 

It’s not happening. We’re safe. 

there’s a strong chance we could finish 16th worse case 17th, but we’re safe… for now. 

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10 minutes ago, Dman said:

I’m imagining it… and they’ll still need to win at least 1 more game and get a draw in the other to go above us. 

In the unlikely event they put a run of wins together, which hasn’t happened all season,  Burnley and Everton (more likely as they have good players), would still need to pick up 2 results for us to drop. 

It’s not happening. We’re safe. 

there’s a strong chance we could finish 16th worse case 17th, but we’re safe… for now. 

But imagine the massive confidence lift they would get if they did beat Chelsea? It's not impossible to think that Chelsea aren't going to fancy it that much with a cup final in a few days time 

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6 minutes ago, Lee On Solent Saint said:

But imagine the massive confidence lift they would get if they did beat Chelsea? It's not impossible to think that Chelsea aren't going to fancy it that much with a cup final in a few days time 

I assume in that case Burnley’s confidence must be rock bottom after taking a bit of pasting from Villa, so they’re not picking up 6 points from Tottenham, Villa and Newcastle. 

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While the table suggests all of the results could conspire to relegate us, experience says they will not.

As for Chelsea, they now see their 3rd place under threat so they have to beat Leeds. 

I believe we will stay up - but it could well look stupidly close on paper and should result in a massive inquest, followed by changes.

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12 minutes ago, Dman said:

I assume in that case Burnley’s confidence must be rock bottom after taking a bit of pasting from Villa, so they’re not picking up 6 points from Tottenham, Villa and Newcastle. 

Team below us win: confidence sky high, they'll win the next game now

Team below us lose: they know what they need to do now, they’ll be fighting for their lives.  They'll win the next game now.

I'm quite looking forward to being bottom three all season next year, because the absolute cast iron faith people on here put on those teams to just win and win and win is mind blowing. It'll be great when it's us that everyone thinks is going to always win.

Edited by CB Fry
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9 hours ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

If they lose to Chelsea then we're essentially safe as their goal difference is so bad.  Unless something crazy were to happen like we lose 10-0 to Liverpool.

True….I mean there’s no chance that this Southampton side would concede 10 goals is there….😰

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10 hours ago, John D said:

For me:

It's possible one of the three will finish above us

It's very unlikely two of the three will finish above us

It's a once in a lifetime scenario for all three to finish above us

Good summary. Of course, once in a lifetime scenarios tend to happen once in a lifetime 😉.

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11 hours ago, John D said:

For me:

It's possible one of the three will finish above us

It's very unlikely two of the three will finish above us

It's a once in a lifetime scenario for all three to finish above us

Trouble is, of late Saints seem to make a habit of breaking records or giving other teams/players the opportunity to break theirs. I hope you’re right, but I’ve a horrible feeling we will see at least two of three finish above us, with a real probability that the third also have a good chance too unless we get at least a point from the last two games.

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7 hours ago, Saint Fan CaM said:

Trouble is, of late Saints seem to make a habit of breaking records or giving other teams/players the opportunity to break theirs. I hope you’re right, but I’ve a horrible feeling we will see at least two of three finish above us, with a real probability that the third also have a good chance too unless we get at least a point from the last two games.

1974 - relegated with Norwich, 2005 - relegated with Norwich, 2009 - relegated with Norwich. I'm nervous.

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9 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

Good summary. Of course, once in a lifetime scenarios tend to happen once in a lifetime 😉.

The bookies think the once-in-a-lifetime odds are a staggeringly low (for a once in a lifetime) 100-1 

Not massively reassuring. Perhaps they've watched us play.

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7 minutes ago, DT said:

The bookies think the once-in-a-lifetime odds are a staggeringly low (for a once in a lifetime) 100-1 

Not massively reassuring. Perhaps they've watched us play.

How long do you expect to live? More than 100 years?

I would have thought that 100-1 was a perfect match for "once in a lifetime".

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4 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

How long do you expect to live? More than 100 years?

I would have thought that 100-1 was a perfect match for "once in a lifetime".

Why are you using years as the integer? It's a one in a hundred chance, which does not relate. Might as well of used seconds...

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I'm sure most people think Saints will survive. I'm intrigued however as to why some are so touchy and will not even countenance the slim possibility that they will not.

Are Pompey fans singing "your going down" outside  their  window every night?

Is that to do so would be to admit that Saints have not only been battling for a top ten place but have also been in a relegation fight for the last few months?

Or are the even more worried than the rest of us and don't even want to think of the  possibility that it might happen?

Just wondering. 

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19 minutes ago, Tom & Gerry said:

I'm sure most people think Saints will survive. I'm intrigued however as to why some are so touchy and will not even countenance the slim possibility that they will not.

Are Pompey fans singing "your going down" outside  their  window every night?

Is that to do so would be to admit that Saints have not only been battling for a top ten place but have also been in a relegation fight for the last few months?

Or are the even more worried than the rest of us and don't even want to think of the  possibility that it might happen?

Just wondering. 

Personally, I think I'm just numb from our complete capitulation since February.  Part of me doesn't really care if we go down and thinks it's what we'd probably deserve if the unlikely chain of results were to conspire against us.  I think this general sense of apathy means that I'm looking at the situation in a more objective, and less pessimistic, way than I might usually.  Anyway, Chelsea will probably do the business tonight and put this conversation to bed. 

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11 minutes ago, Sunglasses Ron said:

Personally, I think I'm just numb from our complete capitulation since February.  Part of me doesn't really care if we go down and thinks it's what we'd probably deserve if the unlikely chain of results were to conspire against us.  I think this general sense of apathy means that I'm looking at the situation in a more objective, and less pessimistic, way than I might usually.  Anyway, Chelsea will probably do the business tonight and put this conversation to bed. 

Bit nervous about Leeds' backs-to-the-wall fight capability tonight, backed by their home crowd, against stuttering Chelsea. Worked for Everton... (we have neither that fight, nor voluble support. Or do we?)

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After Burnley and Leeds respective results on the weekend I no longer think  there is much possibility of us going down,  but, I had no idea how important it would turn out when we secured the absolutely freakish win against Arsenal.

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2 hours ago, Tom & Gerry said:

I'm sure most people think Saints will survive. I'm intrigued however as to why some are so touchy and will not even countenance the slim possibility that they will not.

Are Pompey fans singing "your going down" outside  their  window every night?

Is that to do so would be to admit that Saints have not only been battling for a top ten place but have also been in a relegation fight for the last few months?

Or are the even more worried than the rest of us and don't even want to think of the  possibility that it might happen?

Just wondering. 

I find I have an inbuilt automatic program that kick's in whenever relegation is a possibility.  I tell myself the premier league is soulless and driven by greed, while the championship is so much better...proper teams, 23 home matches, mostly 3pm Saturday kick-offs, less hype, 'honest football'. I think I developed this protective armour in the 80s and it's been pretty useful about half of the seasons since.  This year I never expected the armour to appear but noticed it starting to whisper in my ear before Brentford.

I wouldn't say I'm touchy about it, but it would be such a massive story, given where we were a few games ago, that it does bring me out in a hives a bit to consider it.  It's a bit like a 9-0 defeat.  In reality it's just a heavy defeat - plenty of teams get dicked 4,5,6,7 -0.  But 9 is banner headlines.  And 9 twice is Guinness book of records stuff.  Relegation for us, given we were 9th on 7th March, is trauma-inducing, and I would challenge any fan not to be a little bit defensive about it.

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I think some people confuse improbable with impossible. It's improbable we'll go down, but not impossible.

Of course, there are different levels of improbable. It's improbable, but not impossible to win the lotto jackpot, but the odds are so astronomically low that it's essentially zero, which is why I never buy one. Same with commercial flights, the odds of crashing are extremely low so most don't worry about it. But if I needed to get from France to England quickly, and the only flight was a poorly maintained 2 seater, with an unlicensed pilot going over a stormy channel, I'd be nervous even if the odds of me not dying were 99%.

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Well ..just watching Leeds v Chelsea....Leeds loosing 1 nil and down to ten men. This is positive if it stay's like this...if they loose then Saints are more less safe....unless they score 16 or more tonight !!

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It wasn’t likely that Chelsea would lose to Leeds. And so it goes to form. We will probably end up losing our last two games but the form of others will mean we will might end up 15th.  A season spent mostly in the loo with a thankfully good period again that has saved us from losing our premier league status. 
 

 

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7 hours ago, The Left Back said:

I find I have an inbuilt automatic program that kick's in whenever relegation is a possibility.  I tell myself the premier league is soulless and driven by greed, while the championship is so much better...proper teams, 23 home matches, mostly 3pm Saturday kick-offs, less hype, 'honest football'. I think I developed this protective armour in the 80s and it's been pretty useful about half of the seasons since.  This year I never expected the armour to appear but noticed it starting to whisper in my ear before Brentford.

I wouldn't say I'm touchy about it, but it would be such a massive story, given where we were a few games ago, that it does bring me out in a hives a bit to consider it.  It's a bit like a 9-0 defeat.  In reality it's just a heavy defeat - plenty of teams get dicked 4,5,6,7 -0.  But 9 is banner headlines.  And 9 twice is Guinness book of records stuff.  Relegation for us, given we were 9th on 7th March, is trauma-inducing, and I would challenge any fan not to be a little bit defensive about it.

Great post 

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8 hours ago, The Left Back said:

I find I have an inbuilt automatic program that kick's in whenever relegation is a possibility.  I tell myself the premier league is soulless and driven by greed, while the championship is so much better...proper teams, 23 home matches, mostly 3pm Saturday kick-offs, less hype, 'honest football'. I think I developed this protective armour in the 80s and it's been pretty useful about half of the seasons since.  This year I never expected the armour to appear but noticed it starting to whisper in my ear before Brentford.

I wouldn't say I'm touchy about it, but it would be such a massive story, given where we were a few games ago, that it does bring me out in a hives a bit to consider it.  It's a bit like a 9-0 defeat.  In reality it's just a heavy defeat - plenty of teams get dicked 4,5,6,7 -0.  But 9 is banner headlines.  And 9 twice is Guinness book of records stuff.  Relegation for us, given we were 9th on 7th March, is trauma-inducing, and I would challenge any fan not to be a little bit defensive about it.

Agree about looking forward to a season in the Championship is a good defence/coping mechanism. 

But we haven't been in danger of relegation this calendar year, and we've been safe for weeks. So never anything to worry about. Next year could very well be different.

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10 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

If City win comfortably at the weekend, I think Liverpool will realise the title is gone and that might mean we face a less motivated opponent next week? 🤞

They'll be in a weird position where it's still possible to win the title if they get a couple of big wins and Man City lose to Villa at home on the last day.

So while it's highly improbable, won't they still probably have to go for it?

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3 minutes ago, The Cat said:

They'll be in a weird position where it's still possible to win the title if they get a couple of big wins and Man City lose to Villa at home on the last day.

So while it's highly improbable, won't they still probably have to go for it?

I’m not sure Liverpool have an off switch, they just play the same way regardless. 

Be interesting to see if they lose to Chelsea how they react.

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16 minutes ago, The Cat said:

They'll be in a weird position where it's still possible to win the title if they get a couple of big wins and Man City lose to Villa at home on the last day.

So while it's highly improbable, won't they still probably have to go for it?

Yeah it will be a really weird position, needing huge wins and city to lose (which is very unlikely), whilst trying to not get injured for a CL final.

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11 minutes ago, Midfield_General said:

If...

> Leeds win their two remaining games 3-0 each

> Burnley get two wins and a draw

> Everton get a win and two draws 

> Saints lose 9-0 to Liverpool then 4-0 to Leicester

...then we'd go down. 

And yet people are still so complacent. Unbelievable. 

 

Not one of us read that without a little nervous laugh.😲

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56 minutes ago, goodymatt said:

Yeah it will be a really weird position, needing huge wins and city to lose (which is very unlikely), whilst trying to not get injured for a CL final.

A couple of early clattering challenges on their key players (essentially the old Saints) and they may not want to risk it. The CL final is their holy grail this season IMO - as much as they want to win the Prem, City most likely have it.

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