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Relegation

kraftwerk26

By kraftwerk26
in The Saints

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Vancouver Saint

Vancouver Saint

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well I'm glad someone asked the relegation question - wouldn't classify myself as a bed-wetter - possibly the odd 'accident' which is becoming more frequent with our atrocious form. 

The betting shops are generally pretty good at this. The odds on us being relegated are shortening from rank 500-1 outsiders to 200-1 to now 66-1...if we do lose to Brentford tomorrow, which current form suggests is more likely than not...then with Leeds and Everton not playing until Sunday....and if Burnley beat Villa at home (again form would say probable)...I wonder what our odds will be?

Of course I'm praying we turn up tomorrow and play a blinder and repeat the 4-1 thrashing we gave them at home - but with the emotion taken out of it the possibility of us losing and the threat of relegation drawing even closer is real.

Ralph spouting on today about a top 10 finish makes me even more worried about his connection with reality. 

We all know if there's any team that could claim a record for turning longest odds ever against relegation into reality - it's us.

Hope to goodness we turn up tomorrow and win...at least draw. Enough bedsheet laundering already.

Edited by Vancouver Saint
  • Like 2
egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 07/05/2022 at 15:07, SuperSAINT said:

Sad times when I found myself peering at goal difference just now…

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Everton will better ours if they get the wins, but I can't see that happening. 

  • Like 1
Teddeer

Teddeer

Posted
Posted
  On 07/05/2022 at 15:07, SuperSAINT said:

Sad times when I found myself peering at goal difference just now…

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No point looking at goal difference until we see how many Liverpool tonk us by 🙂 If they're in the mood there could be another minus 10 to factor in.

adrian lord

adrian lord

Posted
Posted

Can’t see us getting any more points this season so we’re stuck on 40.

The teams below us have games in hand. 

I would class the risk of relegation as modest but significant enough to be a little concerned.

Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

Posted
Posted
  On 08/05/2022 at 09:31, adrian lord said:

Can’t see us getting any more points this season so we’re stuck on 40.

 

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Spurs just made the Liverpool game a whole lot easier. They could be 6 points behind city by that night, and played in the cup final a few days before. With the league most probably gone I can see a few changes to their line up that night. It’ll still be tough, but not as tough. I can see us nicking a point. 

whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted
  On 07/05/2022 at 17:23, Baird of the land said:

Just saw Chelsea fell apart again. Not exactly heartering given we may need them to save our bacon by beating Leeds.

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Everyone always predicts that results at this time are all about how much you have to play for. Burnley had so much more at stake than Villa. Not as simple as this shit side want to win more than that good side who don’t need to so shit side guaranteed to win. There is a reason why they are down the bottom. Although agree Chelsea look shite

Super_Uwe

Super_Uwe

Posted
Posted
  On 08/05/2022 at 13:39, Matthew Le God said:

Leeds will prevent Saints going down.

If they lose today, they will need 7 points from Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford to overtake Saints current total and GD advantage.

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Agree we are closing in on that scenario now. Still too early to rule it out mathematically, but assuming they lose against Arsenal, they would have to pull something special out of their last 3. 

macca155

macca155

Posted
Posted

Ask Northampton fans about improbable events!

We are the most likely to survive which is reassuring but way too close for comfort. Should have targeted 2 points minimum from Brentford and Palace  

Get over the line and then worry about next season.

nta786

nta786

Posted
Posted
  On 08/05/2022 at 15:28, spyinthesky said:

If Leeds lose against Chelsea we are safe but if we take our current form into next season it will spell disaster.

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We said the same last season, and lost Ings/Vestegaard/Bertrand to boot.

I agree though, next season will be different to this with the WC in November, although finding someone to gel in with the non-internationals might be perfect during that month if Ralph is given the summer and can't stop the rut.

Super_Uwe

Super_Uwe

Posted
Posted

So still lots of possible outcomes, but the main thing is Burnley and Leeds lost!

I don't think any of us expect Saints to get anything against Liverpool.

Should that be the case, Burnley would have to get 3 points from their next two games, and Leeds would need 4 points from their next two games to take it to the final day.

If either fail, we are safe.

DT

DT

Posted
Posted

We're now down to 60-1. If we ship a lot of goals against Liverpool some will be getting a bit nervous

woodsaint1

woodsaint1

Posted
Posted
  On 08/05/2022 at 09:46, whelk said:

Everyone always predicts that results at this time are all about how much you have to play for. Burnley had so much more at stake than Villa. Not as simple as this shit side want to win more than that good side who don’t need to so shit side guaranteed to win. There is a reason why they are down the bottom. Although agree Chelsea look shite

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One plus about this shite Chelsea form is that it has pulled them back into the top 4 race. About a month or so ago they were coasting to 3rd. The Leeds game has now become a must win for them to solidify that top 4. It could have been a dead rubber, although they do have the FA Cup a few days after

Tom & Gerry

Tom & Gerry

Posted
Posted
  On 08/05/2022 at 15:28, spyinthesky said:

If Leeds lose against Chelsea we are safe but if we take our current form into next season it will spell disaster.

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Yes, but what if they win.

I feel slightly less worried than last weekend,  but only slightly.

 

Dr Who?

Dr Who?

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cannot see Burnley getting 6 points and can see them getting stuffed by Spurs. 

Leeds beating Chelsea will help, but depends on which Chelsea turn up, but they are in terrible form since smashing us. 

Everton will or have a great chance be above us by the time we play Liverpool. 

IF and it is a very big if, but of course possible no matter how unlikely, Burnley get 3 points (we have to hope that Spurs stick a few in) and Leeds manage to get 4 or 6 points, It will go to the last round of games. But hopefully we will see a Chelsea win and then Spurs smashing Burnley, and Brighton get a draw or a win at Leeds. 

If we go down it will be to a freak set our results, but also we have to take a very good hard look at ourselves as we look to regroup to return. 

Edited by Dr Who?
obelisk

obelisk

Posted
Posted

If Saints had managed to hold on and scrape a draw at home to Palace then Leeds would now need 3 wins out of 3 to overtake us. That's unless there's not a crazy GD turnaround of course. As it is Leeds still need 2 wins and a draw - not impossible but imagine the despair if that's what Saints had needed.

If Saints are still in any danger by the time Liverpool roll up at St Mary's it'll then be time to cover the mattress with a plastic sheet.

woodsaint1

woodsaint1

Posted
Posted

Beginning to think Burnley could be favourites to go down again. Away to Spurs and Villa (who just chinned them) and Newcastle last game will be no gimme. After Chelsea, Leeds last two are Brighton and Brentford. Can see them picking up a win between those two which might just be enough

Tamesaint

Tamesaint

Posted
Posted

Listened to a lot of Radio 5 over the weekend. It was reassuring that nobody ever mentioned us being a  contender for relegation .... Or is it???

 

Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 00:22, qwertyell said:

It would leave Leeds six points behind us with two games left - and a worse goal difference by more than fifteen. 

We'd be safe all bar the shouting. 

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Yes but possible. You don’t think Liverpool are capable of handing us a thrashing, meanwhile leeds win both their games by 2 or 3, suddenly that 15 goal difference because a lot smaller, would you fancy us needing to get something at Leicester given how shit and fragile we are at the moment?

Saint Garrett

Saint Garrett

Posted
Posted

Leeds and Burnley losing this weekend has given us some breathing space. But what an absolutely shitshow the end of the season has been.

Newcastle and Everton likely to now finish above us, and probably we'll finish 17th.

  • Like 3
qwertyell

qwertyell

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 07:43, Turkish said:

Yes but possible. You don’t think Liverpool are capable of handing us a thrashing, meanwhile leeds win both their games by 2 or 3, suddenly that 15 goal difference because a lot smaller, would you fancy us needing to get something at Leicester given how shit and fragile we are at the moment?

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In that scenario, they will have lost to Chelsea so their goal difference to us will be at least minus 16 if not worse.

They have won by more than one goal twice in 2022. 3-1 against Burnley and 3-0 against Norwich (at the time positioned 19th and 20th). And they're finishing the season against solid, in form Brighton (h) and Brentford (a). 

Lee On Solent Saint

Lee On Solent Saint

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 09:29, Saint Garrett said:

Leeds and Burnley losing this weekend has given us some breathing space. But what an absolutely shitshow the end of the season has been.

Newcastle and Everton likely to now finish above us, and probably we'll finish 17th.

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For us to be even talking about relegation after looking so comfortable in February time is a testament to how bad things have got. Pretty miserable when you consider we could finish below Everton, who when we beat them at St Marys were the worse side I'd seen us play all season.

  • Like 1
Midfield_General

Midfield_General

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 07:43, Turkish said:

Yes but possible. You don’t think Liverpool are capable of handing us a thrashing, meanwhile leeds win both their games by 2 or 3, suddenly that 15 goal difference because a lot smaller, would you fancy us needing to get something at Leicester given how shit and fragile we are at the moment?

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Oh come on, it's not like Leicester would ever give us a thrashing by an implausible number

  • Haha 2
CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 13:36, Tom & Gerry said:

Of course Burnley couldn't possibly win 3 matches in a row could they?

Oh I forgot, they only need to win 2. 

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Wah wah wah wah everyone else is going to win win win win win win.

I can absolutely guarantee you were sat there thinking Burnley and Leeds were both going to win over the weekend. And of course they did.

Oh I forgot, they both shat the bed.

 

If we swapped places with Burnley or Leeds tomorrow there's no way on earth you would  be predicting for us the kind of blistering form that you are projecting on them. 

 

  • Like 4
Tom & Gerry

Tom & Gerry

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 16:36, CB Fry said:

Wah wah wah wah everyone else is going to win win win win win win.

I can absolutely guarantee you were sat there thinking Burnley and Leeds were both going to win over the weekend. And of course they did.

Oh I forgot, they both shat the bed.

 

If we swapped places with Burnley or Leeds tomorrow there's no way on earth you would  be predicting for us the kind of blistering form that you are projecting on them. 

 

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Thats why I said I'm  slightly more optimistic,  but it is not unknown for teams desperate to stay in the Premier league to produce blistering form. The odds might be against it but it's a possibility and will remain a cause for concern until it isn't,  when we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

egg

egg

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 13:36, Tom & Gerry said:

Of course Burnley couldn't possibly win 3 matches in a row could they?

Oh I forgot, they only need to win 2. 

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If Burnley stay up, then Leeds or Everton go down. We're not finishing below those 3. 

  • Like 2
Saint_clark

Saint_clark

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 08:35, Sunglasses Ron said:

I think we need something like 8 of 12 games left involving us, Everton, Burnley and Leeds to go against us for us to go down. 

Massively unlikely.

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Clearly you've never done an accumulator. I've had 60%+ of a betslip go against me more than I've had it go for me. 

 

CB Fry

CB Fry

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 09/05/2022 at 16:56, Tom & Gerry said:

Thats why I said I'm  slightly more optimistic,  but it is not unknown for teams desperate to stay in the Premier league to produce blistering form. The odds might be against it but it's a possibility and will remain a cause for concern until it isn't,  when we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

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Except never all of them like you think is going to happen. All the teams below us winning all the freaking time.

It will be interesting next year if it is us in 18th place with 3 games to go next season.

Because we can all rely on you to build up everyone's confidence by predicting that we will win every game just like you have with Burnley and Leeds this year.

Because you definitely will do that won't you? 

Edited by CB Fry
  • Haha 1
Sunglasses Ron

Sunglasses Ron

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 09/05/2022 at 17:45, Saint_clark said:

Clearly you've never done an accumulator. I've had 60%+ of a betslip go against me more than I've had it go for me. 

 

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Current odds of 100-1 for Saints to gown suggest it is massively unlikely though?

Edited by Sunglasses Ron
Tom & Gerry

Tom & Gerry

Posted
Posted
  On 09/05/2022 at 17:52, CB Fry said:

Except never all of them like you think is going to happen. All the teams below us winning all the freaking time.

It will be interesting next year if it is us in 18th place with 3 games to go next season.

Because we can all rely on you to build up everyone's confidence by predicting that we will win every game just like you have with Burnley and Leeds this year.

Because you definitely will do that won't you? 

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OK fine if that's what you believe great. I'm just of a more nervous disposition when it comes to following Saints and I'm sure I'm not alone. I'm not trying to boost or dent anyones confidence, just give what I see as a realistic appraisal of the situation and you don't. I wonder why if you are so confident that you choose to misrepresent what I've said. All 3 teams in question don't have to win every game.

Burnley have to win 2 from 3 -do able on their recent  form prior to last Saturday.

Everton 2 wins from 4 or probably 5 points - very do able.

Leeds 7 points from 3 - less do able, but if they were to beat Chelsea the odds would shorten and you wouldn't be getting 60/1 from the bookies on Saints staying up.

For all 3 to happen would be remarkable, but remarkable things happen in sport , that's all I'm  saying.

Of course if Chelsea beat Leeds then the scales will be lifted from my eyes and I like you will become a believer, and I will be very happy for you to tell me, I told you so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

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