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How good is our squad really?


Saint86
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Long post warning 😨

The season is effectively over for us, and rather than engage in the whole sack/defend ralph bi-polarised debate we have most weeks, I thought i'd do an exercise to see where I personally think the team/squad stands.

I.e. I’m aiming to do this without turning it into a Ralph debate, and also not to intrude on the summer transfer thread - but if the MODs think it’s better suited to those threads, then fair enough ofc. Either way, it would be interested to see if people significant disagree on the quality of the current squad, or the quality of the players we’ve let go? And therefore, where they think we should realistically be finishing?

In summary, I think we have a very average to poor squad overall, and one that will need to improve if we are to stay away from a relegation scrap for certain next season (my working/justification for that is below) – I am not saying we won’t improve.

In fact, I do think in each season post Hughes/Reed so far there has been marginal squad improvement. But we’ve been hamstrung by the quality of the league constantly improving around us, whilst we have had relatively no money to spend (i.e. the net spend trophy and I think Burnley were the only long-term club with a lower net spend?). We’ve been wrestling with having to balance the books and improve the squad with no owner input and a growing debt.

But now we do have the 10th richest owners in the league. Hopefully these new owners will give us the bit of extra financial muscle we need to make a jump up and establish ourselves as comfortably mid table, because incrementally improving year on year is a risky business and we'd only need a couple of serious injuries to key players to relegate us as it stands, I think.

So anyway, this is all my opinion, but i do think it’s a useful exercise to have done. Looking at our team (and ignoring Broja who won’t be here after the summer), I’d summarise it as follows (*all based on perceived current ability, not potential).

Top half standard players:
JWP, KWP.

Comfortable mid table standard players:
Romeu, Salisu, Livramento, Perruad, S.Armstrong, Che.

Bottom half standard players:
Bednarek, Diallo, Forster, Redmond, Ely, Stephens,

Relegation level:
Stephens, Lyanco, Macca, Djenpo, Long, A.Amrstrong (this season), Tella,

Championship
Valery, Caballero, Small, Smallbone, Walcott, Lewis

As above, for me personally that's a squad that should be aiming to avoid relegation and pushing for mid table in a good season (which is what we are achieving). It would be very easy to wind up in a relegation scrap with these players with injuries.

Fundamentally we don't have a top-class goalkeeper or forward, and our 10's are very average if we’re being honest (and as much as we like Stu who is a technical gifted grafter). If we could have the 20+goals a season Ings back in the side alone then we would be a very different proposition this year. And beyond all of that, we really do have no serious strength of depth.

I feel also like a point that shouldn't need to be restated is that we have had to sell to buy for years now...and we have had to sell utter dross generally to both cover operating losses and raise money to maintain / improve the team.

This is who we have sold (and/or loaned out for financial wage bill reasons) since Ralph took charge (and lets not mention the money wasted on wages and signing fees for most of this lot):
 

Carillo, Lemina, Boufal, Hoedt, Reed, Soares, Yoshida, Hojberg (would improve squad), Ings (improves squad), Vestergard (any better than we currently have?), Gunn, Obafemi, Bertrand, Gallagher, Targett, Austin, Davis, Claise, Elyonoussi, Tadic (well duh), Gabbi (improves squad but left 1month after ralph).
 

Conclusion:
We’ve shown a general trend of getting rid of older filler players that weren’t good enough and replacing them with younger players with potential (both talent/resale), so I expect that to continue – certainly with the financial backing and comments from the new owners. But to really push on an be comfortably mid table / pushing top half - we badly need to sign a better CB, better No.10s, and a quality CF this summer. And then if we don’t think that Forster is going to sign and maintain his current level, we need a quality keeper as well.

Edited by Saint86
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Personally I think as a squad we're still bottom half quality wise. We have a few top half players in terms of quality (JWP/KWP/Salisu/Romeu) but not enough, certainly not enough to sustain any good form when those few good players drop off it.

The frustrating thing with us is our extremes, whilst we'll probably end up finishing where our squad and quality dictates we should, the extremes of which we have to endure are what frustrates many. We can look like a top 4 team for a couple of months and have everyone dreaming, then out of nowhere and overnight for the next 2 months we're the worst team in the league and have everyone fearing.

That probably comes down to the fact that the 'few' good quality players we have cannot sustain it all themselves, they need help from around them - but the quality in and around such as Smallbone, Valery, Stephens, Bednarek, Diallo, Long, Theo, Moussa, Redmond, Lyanco etc is just way, way, way too much of a drop off in terms of quality.

This summer we need about 5 or 6 new additions, 4 of those need to be first 11 starters. Certainly a new number 10, certainly a new striker as Broja won't be here, new CB without question, proper competition in CM and someone to replace Romeu and a new GK who suits our style of play in terms of distribution.

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Interesting topic. Agree with a lot of this although maybe slightly more positive:

Top 6 quality:

JWP, KWP

Top half quality:

Livramento, Romeu, Stu

Top 6 on their day but inconsistent:

Romeu, Salisu

Top half on their day but inconsistent:

Che, Forster

Lower Midtable players who have the occassional top half game:

Redmond, Elyounoussi, Valery

Unproven players who could potentially benefit from a run in the side:

Tella, Adam Armstrong, Small, Diallo, Smallbone

Relegation fighting level:

Bednarek, Lyanco, Stephens, Djenepo, Long, Macca

Championship level no hopers

Walcott, Cabellero

 

Conclusion

Decent squad to finish 10th-14th but big gaps in incredibly important positions. Lacking quality at striker, CB, and GK which are amongst the most important positions to be strong at. With the current squad Ralph is performing slightly above par, but the quality of this squad is basically down to Ralph as I remember how good the likes of JWP were pre-Ralph.

Edited by TWar
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I’ll say what I said at the start of the season.

Our starting XI is pretty good, some top ten players, some Lower Prem standard.

Outside of them we’ve got one or two others who are genuine contenders for the first team (Perraud, Diallo, Redmond when he’s at it is a good squad player IMO)

The rest just aren’t good enough for a side aspiring to break the top ten, especially given how much it is a squad game now (and will continue to be with the possibility for 5 subs).

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15 minutes ago, adriansfc said:

Always find it odd to talk of "top half" quality. Coming 10th doesn't require some perfectly balanced high quality squad. You still lose a lot of games and have really frustrating players. Saints should have been able to get 10th with this squad this season as there's plenty of poor sides. But we just run out of ideas quickly and only have one way to play. 

Nobody said coming tenth requires a perfectly balanced high quality squad.

Finishing inside the top ten, and doing it consistently, relies upon having decent squad depth to cover shortfalls through injury, suspension, and loss of form. We haven’t got that strength in depth, hence why we’ll likely finish outside the top ten again this season. Our first team is decent enough, most of our backups are not.

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This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

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4 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

Here is a list of premier league leaders in chances created

image.thumb.png.4e72ebfee1ba8058e5d9c6d9985d3089.png

I would suggest the read of "isn't creative at all" is wide of the mark.

Edited by TWar
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6 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

Sorry, but JwP is top 6 quality. Can imagine starting for Arsenal, Spurs or United. 
 

would make a decent addition to the city squad also

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12 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

I think he's City quality, probably not pacey enough for Klopp, but could see him at City, Spurs or Arsenal. Surround him with better players and he could be fantastic, in my opinion.  

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20 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

I think he is but he's been run into the ground - you cannot play in the centre mid role for the whole season with a top 6 level of intensity - he is a shadow of his earlier season form - he needs to be managed throughout the season

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18 minutes ago, TWar said:

Here is a list of premier league leaders in chances created

image.thumb.png.4e72ebfee1ba8058e5d9c6d9985d3089.png

I would suggest the read of "isn't creative at all" is wide of the mark.

I don't think this is a very good illustration of his creativity. Take out the set pieces which we know he is great at then there is 23 chances created in 2,677 minutes, or a chance from open play every 116 minutes. People saying his is City quality, but De Bruyne has a chance from open play every 37 minutes. A bit of apples v oranges there, but it's not the same league.

Edited by gsweet87
typo
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Just now, gsweet87 said:

I don't think this is a very good illustration of his creativity. Take out the set pieces which we know he is great at then there is 23 chances created in 2,677 minutes, or a chance from open play every 116 minutes. People saying his is City quality, but De Bruyne has a chance from open play every 37 minutes. A bit of apples v oranges there, but it's not the same league.

He obviously isn't KdB quality, but if you compare him to the likes of Henderson at Liverpool, Xhaka at Arsenal, Hojbjerg at spurs, Fred at united, etc. then he creates a tonne more, has more progressive passes, and contributes more ball progression than all of them. These are who he'd be competing with as they play his position more than KdB and Mount for example. Also KdB is probably the second best player in the league, maybe third behind VvD, he obviously isn't anywhere near that.

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2 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

I don't think this is a very good illustration of his creativity. Take out the set pieces which we know he is great at then there is 23 chances created in 2,677 minutes, or a chance from open play every 116 minutes. People saying his is City quality, but De Bruyne has a chance from open play every 37 minutes. A bit of apples v oranges there, but it's not the same league.

It's not a good illustration, but nothing is, unless you could create a control where all the circumstances are identical then it will always be pure speculation. We won't really know until if and when he gets a Chace to move to a higher level.

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1 minute ago, TWar said:

He obviously isn't KdB quality, but if you compare him to the likes of Henderson at Liverpool, Xhaka at Arsenal, Hojbjerg at spurs, Fred at united, etc. then he creates a tonne more, has more progressive passes, and contributes more ball progression than all of them. These are who he'd be competing with as they play his position more than KdB and Mount for example. Also KdB is probably the second best player in the league, maybe third behind VvD, he obviously isn't anywhere near that.

Are any of those players you've mentioned really good enough to be playing at their respective clubs though? Outside Fred?

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6 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

I don't think this is a very good illustration of his creativity. Take out the set pieces which we know he is great at then there is 23 chances created in 2,677 minutes, or a chance from open play every 116 minutes. People saying his is City quality, but De Bruyne has a chance from open play every 37 minutes. A bit of apples v oranges there, but it's not the same league.

Yep, you’re right. Took the words out of my mouth. 

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16 minutes ago, gsweet87 said:

Are any of those players you've mentioned really good enough to be playing at their respective clubs though? Outside Fred?

Yeah I think so. A club isn't just as good as their best players, there will always be a mix of Salahs and Hendersons, Sakas and Xhakas, Ronaldos and Maguires. The players I mentioned are definitely in the bottom half of players at their respective clubs but they all have teammates who are worse. JWP would start ahead of all of them imo and would improve all those top 6 sides, which makes him top 6 quality for me.

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I would not disagree with anything Sat86 posted, pretty much spot on.

For me JWP is a bit of an enigma, brilliant free kicks, fantastic work rate, but there is still frustration in open play his first instinct is to play the safe ball.

Of course, we all have opinions, and we can speculate whether a player is top/middle/bottom or championship level.

For me the acid test is not what I, or arm chair fans think, but what do the professionals think? Who would poach our players should we get relegated. For all the commentators’ plaudits, until Aston Villa bid £25 million, not a single club has publicly made a bid for JWP in all the time he has been at Saints. And no club has made any bids for the rest of the squad.

Our local pub runs a quiz where the last set of 10 questions will get double points for a correct answer, but 1 wrong answer and you get nothing, so you only answer those questions you are confident of getting correct. In that vein, which players would DEFINETLY interest premiership clubs, JWP, KWP and some might take a punt on Livramento.

The bottom half clubs might fancy Romeu, Stuart Armstrong, maybe a punt on Salisu, but equally I can see most of the squad going down with the club.

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5 minutes ago, Saint86 said:

I saw something today that showed owner wealth. We were 10th - No source currently available.... dum dum dum!!!!

If it was this, then it is out of date...

Top 10 Premier League Richest Owners - Finance Football

That is based on the claim Gao Jisheng was worth £3b, not Dragan Solak.

Solak's wealth has been reported in some media to be closer to £1b.

Plus in any case, what the owner is worth doesn't matter as much as how much they are willing to spend. Solak investing some of a £1b fortune is better than Gao not investing any of the £3b (if he even had that much!).

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50 minutes ago, Mltburger said:

I would not disagree with anything Sat86 posted, pretty much spot on.

For me JWP is a bit of an enigma, brilliant free kicks, fantastic work rate, but there is still frustration in open play his first instinct is to play the safe ball.

Of course, we all have opinions, and we can speculate whether a player is top/middle/bottom or championship level.

For me the acid test is not what I, or arm chair fans think, but what do the professionals think? Who would poach our players should we get relegated. For all the commentators’ plaudits, until Aston Villa bid £25 million, not a single club has publicly made a bid for JWP in all the time he has been at Saints. And no club has made any bids for the rest of the squad.

Our local pub runs a quiz where the last set of 10 questions will get double points for a correct answer, but 1 wrong answer and you get nothing, so you only answer those questions you are confident of getting correct. In that vein, which players would DEFINETLY interest premiership clubs, JWP, KWP and some might take a punt on Livramento.

The bottom half clubs might fancy Romeu, Stuart Armstrong, maybe a punt on Salisu, but equally I can see most of the squad going down with the club.

I assume you mean me, in which case thanks. And thanks also for not adding an "h" into that typo 💩 😅

Its interesting, looks like most people roughly share the same kind of sentiment squad wise - Which is somewhat at odds with the extreme element of the ralph hate/love divide we get after almost every result atm. On the bracket front, i know some posters have included top 6 etc, and I debated splitting "top half" into top 6 etc, but then in reality this year I think 4th / 5th-8th are all similar quality, and we don't have anyone you could put forward as top 3 quality i don't think. So ultimately i went mid table and top half, and ignored top 3/4.

Anyway, I want to think we are one window away from a very good squad. If we can "just" get a good CB and a good CF it would make big difference for us. But we need to do it at the expense of losing some of the poorer squad players, not first team players. i.e. not having to compromise first 11 quality like last summer - by trading starting defenders (albeit shite ones) and our main standout goalscorer (Ings) for A.Armstrong, Livramento and Perraud. We need to improve the first 11 and move the ones we replace to be squad players. And if we can do that and add in a quality GK or a quality Ralph "No.10" to that then even better.

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22 hours ago, Mltburger said:

I would not disagree with anything Sat86 posted, pretty much spot on.

For me JWP is a bit of an enigma, brilliant free kicks, fantastic work rate, but there is still frustration in open play his first instinct is to play the safe ball.

Of course, we all have opinions, and we can speculate whether a player is top/middle/bottom or championship level.

For me the acid test is not what I, or arm chair fans think, but what do the professionals think? Who would poach our players should we get relegated. For all the commentators’ plaudits, until Aston Villa bid £25 million, not a single club has publicly made a bid for JWP in all the time he has been at Saints. And no club has made any bids for the rest of the squad.

Our local pub runs a quiz where the last set of 10 questions will get double points for a correct answer, but 1 wrong answer and you get nothing, so you only answer those questions you are confident of getting correct. In that vein, which players would DEFINETLY interest premiership clubs, JWP, KWP and some might take a punt on Livramento.

The bottom half clubs might fancy Romeu, Stuart Armstrong, maybe a punt on Salisu, but equally I can see most of the squad going down with the club.

I agree with you and I doubt anyone other than KWP apart from Forster would get into Koemann's side of a few years ago.

 

We just have a pretty ordinary squad which is probably positioned in its expected position in the PL league 12 to 15 I would have thought

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On 22/04/2022 at 13:22, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

I felt for a while he wasn’t fulfilling the potential stacked on him, or maybe he was a later developer. But I do think he has the inner ability to thrive at a top end club.
The players around him would be of a better quality and that would allow him to express himself confidently. His creativity etc would have more chance of being realised because at that level, team mates make it more likely. They offer more in the way of options. Whereas, with us, he’s probably having to be a bit of an ‘everyman’ to cover the inadequacy of others. 
But in few recent outings with England, among international level players, he can look different, better even ! Including getting into the box and scoring, not something he does for us regularly. Maybe a tweak positionally also helps.
If he is to play at the top, he best move soon (unfortunately), he’s not getting any younger and Mounts & Rices are already coming through well. 

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I’d say overall our squad is filled with relatively decent players, I just really think we’re lacking that standout player who elevates the whole squad. 
 

Before January we definitely had better squads than both Newcastle and Brentford. I would still say even now in a combined 11 against those two there would be more Saints players in it. But because they’ve added such top-quality in Guimarães and Eriksen they’ve raised the level of the whole squad to the point they’re now better than Saints.

 

I think if we managed to add one real top quality number 10 to our squad I think that could be the difference between finishing top-10 rather than bottom-10.

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On 22/04/2022 at 14:22, gsweet87 said:

This might seem like blasphemy to some, but is JWP top 6 quality? Obviously he is elite at direct Free Kicks, very good at corners and indirect free kicks. His work rate is outstanding, but aside from that? He is not a great tackler, he isn't particularly strong, he isn't creative at all...

If we really want to revamp the squad his market value will never be as high as it will this summer, i d be inclined to sell but we need to get our recruitment right

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On 22/04/2022 at 11:15, TWar said:

Interesting topic. Agree with a lot of this although maybe slightly more positive:

Unproven players who could potentially benefit from a run in the side:

Tella, Adam Armstrong, Small, Diallo, Smallbone

 

This is probably the most interesting group, although I don't recall having seen Small play. All of them do have potential. I like the way Diallo and Smallbone move, surprisingly quick over the short distances that are so important in midfield. The former is still adapting to the Premier and the latter coming back from a very long injury so I haven't given up hope. Armstrong maybe just a confidence thing like Adams when he came to us and Tella has the pace, and I feel a bit more to him than Obafemi.

We undoubtedly need fresh blood but I try to maintain a degree of positivity, and I'd hate to be as drip, drip, drip negative as some on here.

 

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Lets bare in mind what some of our players achieved before we signed them:
 

Walcott - Not wanted by bottom half Everton.

Tella - Released from Arsenal’s academy.

Stephens - Plymouth fans weren’t exactly gutted we’d nicked him.

Long - Couldn’t get a start in the Championship last year, Bournemouth fans thought he was useless.

Lyanco - Torino fans we’re glad to see the back of him.

Bednarek - Looked pretty uninspiring for Poland U21s

Redmond - Was an okay player in a Norwich team fighting relegation.

Elyounoussi - Didn’t uproot any trees in the SPL

McCarthy - Barely played for a pretty poor Palace team.

A. Armstrong - Was quite a good Championship player. Nothing more.

Adams - As above.

KWP - Spurs fourth choice RB.

Diallo - Decent enough player for a mediocre French team.

 

Not exactly an all star cast are they.

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This is an interesting thought exercise, actually. My take, fwiw:

World Class:
<big empty space>

'Big Six' Quality:
JWP, KWP

Solid Starting XI:
S Armstrong, Romeu

Good Potential:
Livramento, Broja, Salisu

----------

Acceptable Squad Players:
Che, Redmond, Forster, Bednarek

Could Yet Prove To Be Decent:
A Armstrong, Diallo, Perraud, Tella, Small

----------

Probably Not Up To Scratch:
Djenepo, Elyounoussi, Long, Lyanco, Stephens, Cabellero, Smallbone, Lewis

Get Rid:
Valery, Walcott, Macca

----------

Written down, it doesn't look great. If everyone with potential comes good then we have a team that should be able to avoid relegation and fight for good Top 10 finishes, but that doesn't feel likely. In truth, Ralph is probably getting all he can from what we've got. He's not really over-achieving in the way that Poch and Koeman did, but certainly he's a step above a lot of the shite that followed. Essentially it's a problem that can only be solved with cash, which we haven't had for ages. And still may not have now, who knows?

 

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I'd say we're definitely nowhere near the top 6, or probably the top 8. We're also - over 38 games - measurably better than the bottom 2 or 3.

There's a swathe of teams in mid to lower table where there is virtually nothing to choose between them. Finishing top ten is tough, because it basically means finishing ahead of the 6 or 7 teams who roughly are on our level.

We haven't been in relegation trouble for a few years and I don't think we will be next season either. Getting much better than that though is a really hard climb.

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Top 6 quality is a bit a misnomer anyway, there is very clearly a top 2 and then some other sides that are only a bit better than the chasing top 6-8 teams.  City and Liverpool are head and shoulders clear of anyone in the league, have been for a while and will be for the next couple of seasons at least IMO. I can't see any of Spurs, Arsenal or Utd getting close to them, Chelsea maybe but it's all up in their air with their takeover and what their funds look like going forward.

But IMO JWP could easily get into, if not be a key first teamer for the likes of Spurs, Utd and Arsenal, whereas he probably would be a very good squad option for City or Liverpool, though there is also the better manager/better players thing that might see him raise his game, he seems to get better each year IMO. 

But really looking at the table we are going to be 1/2 wins away from basically Brighton, Palace, Brentford, Villa in that 9-14th sort of area. (Newcastle and Leicester are a bit outliers, the former with their finances and the latter massively underperforming).  So that is the level of our squad, it's usually pretty close here so like I said 1-2 wins which can come down to a bit of luck really, I don't think you could definitively say one squad is better than the other.

So really to improve to a Wolves or even West Ham level we are going to need some key improvements to turn 4-5 of those draws into wins (we've lost as many this year as West Ham and less than Wolves, so its too many draws really).

Failure to improve with maybe some bad injuries or loss of a key player (like JWP) could very clearly see us dragged into the relegation scrappers.

This summer will be the key, probably the first summer window we have had for 5 years with a decent amount of financial backing (enough to say push the boat out a little for a key signing) and not being hamstrung by previous transfer mistakes. 

Keep the main squad together, the key players and improve in areas we need to improve (which will of course require some gambling, we are not going to get ready made proven PL players) which IMO is GK, CB, no.10 and Striker, if we could get players for these positions at least Stu Armstrong levels of performance I think we could be in that 5-8 mix. 

Edited by tajjuk
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How good is our squad really ?

As good as we might reasonably expect given our ownership and finances since Marcus passed away. It might have been better if Les Reed had never been at the club and some of his 'Star Buys' had never materialised, but I think this is our level given our spending and "pulling" power.

Edited by badgerx16
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