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TWar’s In-Depth Football Analysis


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11 minutes ago, TWar said:

It's not about "losing", you dredge up any old post that you think makes me look incorrect, like me overrating Armstrong which I did, admittedly. But you don't like it when I point out your multiple more aggregious old posts like that we would finish bottom and that Ralph, Che, JWP were all shite and Jankewitz, San Marino, and Pompey were class. Also some shite about Bednarek being better pre-Ralph when he didn't start a single game. I could go on but that's just off the top of my head.

I don't say this to prove you don't know much, although it doesn't look great, I do it to point out that when you discuss football as often as we do on this forum you are going to make bad takes, I did overrate Armstrong and it was a bad take. That doesn't invalidate future analysis because if it did, after all the shite you've said, you would be about as credible as someone who had just watched their first game.

Why are you assuming everyone on here has only played pub standard? I know that’s probably still far higher than you’ve ever made but there have been some very good players post on here over the years

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2 minutes ago, TWar said:

It's because it wasn't a big mistake. It was about a 25% chance of scoring at most.

Those chances I was showing you the xG, which is the chance of them going in, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant.

xG, in this case, is utter crap mate. It doesn’t factor in the variables. Like keeper positioning and time in the ball. 
 

Significantly easier chance than Adams. Both were what you’d expect a premier league player to score, however. 

Edited by Dman
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16 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

I see I'm not going to get through to you. 

But I'll leave you with this. When I came to Canada I got really into (ice) hockey and the Ottawa Senators. I have been to many games, watch almost every game on TV, I play the video games, play fantasy hockey etc. 

When I'm with my friends watching I can reel off the stats etc. and describe the "trap" formation and powerplay strategies etc. until the moose come home. But when it comes to the technical aspects of skating, passing and shooting I defer to them. Initially I'd yell. "oh god what a miss!!!" when I was watching but my friends who actually play the game, and yes, vs Dave the maple syrup farmer, they will say, actually, on the backhand there, in that tight at that speed is really tough. They should know, they play the game, they are not pros, nor do they play against pros and pros would absolutely destroy them but they have played so much they know what is a difficult finish that looks easy and also an easy finish that looks difficult. They have a perspective that I just don't have.

Interesting that @TWar neglected to comment on this one. I think it fits the situation very nicely. Too nicely...

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So you said that a penalty kick is 0.85xG.

Are you aware (and I don't know why this is, physics or something) that a dead ball is much harder to strike cleanly than a moving ball. Again, it doesn't seem logical but it is. Playing the game teaches you that, actually kicking a ball rather than watching others. 

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Just now, Turkish said:

Why are you assuming everyone on here has only played pub standard? I know that’s probably still far higher than you’ve ever made but there have been some very good players post on here over the years

I assume if you were better you wouldn't be so shy to tell us. I'm not saying everyone on here, just those who think they are better because of real life ability. Ottowa saint has said he plays in "organised leagues" which, honestly, is pub standard. Pub teams play in organised leagues, I've played in organised leagues, I'd say most of my football fan mates have too. It's not super impressive. And you won't say anything. Pretty telling tbh.

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6 minutes ago, TWar said:

It's because it wasn't a big mistake. It was about a 25% chance of scoring at most.

Those chances I was showing you the xG, which is the chance of them going in, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant.

So both Djenepo and Redmond, neither known for their finishing and both often miss howlers, scored on xGs of around 0.25 to 0.18. That, to me would suggest how flawed the xG stat is.

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3 minutes ago, Dman said:

xG, in this case, is utter crap mate. It doesn’t factor in the variables. 
 

Significantly easier chance than Adams. Both were what you’d expect a premier league player to score, however. 

xG isn't crap, it just isn't burdened by confirmation bias. If most shots which fans said "you'd expect to score" went in you'd never have a 0-0 and most games would end with 5+ goals. The fact that most players are within 1 goal of their xG and you rarely get someone most than 3 out (normally 2 or 3 players a season) shows it actually does a pretty good job.

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Just now, OttawaSaint said:

So you said that a penalty kick is 0.85xG.

Are you aware (and I don't know why this is, physics or something) that a dead ball is much harder to strike cleanly than a moving ball. Again, it doesn't seem logical but it is. Playing the game teaches you that, actually kicking a ball rather than watching others. 

I was going to say the same, give me a chance where I’m running onto a through ball with half the goal gaping, than standing over a still ball, with all the pressures a penalty brings. 
 

There is a place for stats in the game, 100% but they’re not the be all and end all like Twar makes out. I can only assume he has some form of disorder which means he is unable to critically think. 

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1 minute ago, OttawaSaint said:

So both Djenepo and Redmond, neither known for their finishing and both often miss howlers, scored on xGs of around 0.25 to 0.18. That, to me would suggest how flawed the xG stat is.

Or we are discussing goals from 2019 and they have missed numerous other chances since which have been as easy if not easier but we don't remember those as they didn't result in goals. This is the very definition of confirmation bias.

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4 minutes ago, TWar said:

I assume if you were better you wouldn't be so shy to tell us. I'm not saying everyone on here, just those who think they are better because of real life ability. Ottowa saint has said he plays in "organised leagues" which, honestly, is pub standard. Pub teams play in organised leagues, I've played in organised leagues, I'd say most of my football fan mates have too. It's not super impressive. And you won't say anything. Pretty telling tbh.

Or maybe I just don’t want to boast about it to make you feel even more inadequate?

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2 minutes ago, TWar said:

I assume if you were better you wouldn't be so shy to tell us. I'm not saying everyone on here, just those who think they are better because of real life ability. Ottowa saint has said he plays in "organised leagues" which, honestly, is pub standard. Pub teams play in organised leagues, I've played in organised leagues, I'd say most of my football fan mates have too. It's not super impressive. And you won't say anything. Pretty telling tbh.

You remind me of that scene in Goodwill Hunting where Robin Williams tells Matt Damon things like (paraphrasing), "you could probably tell me all about great painters and what they painted and their techniques and history, but you couldn't tell me what the Sistine Chapel smells like, what it feels like to look up at that ceiling".  

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1 minute ago, Dman said:

I was going to say the same, give me a chance where I’m running onto a through ball with half the goal gaping, than standing over a still ball, with all the pressures a penalty brings. 
 

There is a place for stats in the game, 100% but they’re not the be all and end all like Twar makes out. I can only assume he has some form of disorder which means he is unable to critically think. 

There is no need to be like this. You should be able to have a conversation on a football forum without saying shit like this.

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9 minutes ago, TWar said:

You never said anything, you implied you were a good player and when I asked what level you avoided answering it. And continue to do so. What level are you that makes you think you are better equiped to judge than others?

So you admitted you made up me claiming to be a high flying pro then? Well done on finally admitting you got something wrong 👏

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9 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

Interesting that @TWar neglected to comment on this one. I think it fits the situation very nicely. Too nicely...

It's because you are saying your same point again, but with "hey, I'm the same when I'm on the other side of it" and like, good for you being consistent, doesn't mean anything to me though.

I too am consistent in my point of view, I don't play much NFL but if I had someone try to tell me that they are an expert on NFL despite demonstrably not knowing what they are talking about because the were this close to going pro before the did their knee I too would say they were chatting shite.

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4 minutes ago, Turkish said:

So you admitted you made up me claiming to be a high flying pro then? Well done on finally admitting you got something wrong 👏

I never said that, I said you were trying to work out whether to claim to be a high flying pro or to be honest and to lose credibility. Something I think you are still mulling over.

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2 minutes ago, TWar said:

There is no need to be like this. You should be able to have a conversation on a football forum without saying shit like this.

You seem unable to grasp reality and external factors. You don’t seem to understand anything that’s not in black and white on a laptop. 
 

it’s actually not a dig, it would explain a lot. 

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1 minute ago, TWar said:

I never said that, I said you were trying to work out whether to claim to be a high flying pro or to be honest and to lose credibility. Something I think you are still mulling over.

I’ve never claimed or even thought to say that, you’ve invented that in your head as well. If you can be bothered to look I actually mentioned what level I played at fairly recently on here. I’m sure you’ll just dismiss it as “very low level” though 

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3 minutes ago, TWar said:

Or we are discussing goals from 2019 and they have missed numerous other chances since which have been as easy if not easier but we don't remember those as they didn't result in goals. This is the very definition of confirmation bias.

To be honest. I looked at those still shots on their own merit and couldn't actually remember if they were scored on or missed and where the player put the ball. 

We get ex pros as pundits on the DAZN channel I subscribe to. They often educate the hosts as to what was a bad miss or a difficult chance. I'd be very surprised if Alan Shearer or Michael Owen said that AA was unlucky, both of them would be salivating at a chance laid on like that, the pace of the pass, the angle of the goal, where the keeper was and on his favoured foot. AA is probably torturing himself with that one.

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4 minutes ago, Dman said:

You seem unable to grasp reality and external factors. You don’t seem to understand anything that’s not in black and white on a laptop. 
 

it’s actually not a dig, it would explain a lot. 

Look, it's all fun and games to have a chat on an internet forum and sometimes things will get heated but there is no need to be a prick. Last time we spoke before your ban I suggested we bury the hatchet and you called me a c*nt, which was why the ban happened. I thought I wouldn't bother talking to you for a while but thought, we all have hard days where we act rash so decided to keep engaging.

I have people close to me who struggle with the sort of disorders you are eluding to and to use it as a point in an argument about Adam fucking Armstrongs finishing ability is completely unnacceptable to me.

Edited by TWar
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4 minutes ago, Dman said:

You seem unable to grasp reality and external factors. You don’t seem to understand anything that’s not in black and white on a laptop. 
 

it’s actually not a dig, it would explain a lot. 

Play the ball, not the man

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5 minutes ago, TWar said:

Look, it's all fun and games to have a chat on an internet forum and sometimes things will get heated but there is no need to be a prick. Last time we spoke before your ban I suggested we bury the hatchet and you called me a c*nt, which was why the ban happened. I thought I wouldn't bother talking to you for a while but thought, we all have hard days where we act rash so decided to keep engaging.

I have people close to me who struggle with the sort of disorders you are eluding to and to use it as a point in an argument about Adam fucking Armstrongs finishing ability is completely unnacceptable to me.

As do I, which is how I know the traits. 
 

as I said, it wasn’t a dig and would explain why we clash as sometimes it feels like banging my head against a brick wall.
 

apologies if you have taken offence. 

Edited by Dman
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55 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

To be honest. I looked at those still shots on their own merit and couldn't actually remember if they were scored on or missed and where the player put the ball. 

We get ex pros as pundits on the DAZN channel I subscribe to. They often educate the hosts as to what was a bad miss or a difficult chance. I'd be very surprised if Alan Shearer or Michael Owen said that AA was unlucky, both of them would be salivating at a chance laid on like that, the pace of the pass, the angle of the goal, where the keeper was and on his favoured foot. AA is probably torturing himself with that one.

If you rely on Michael Owen to give you insight then you are fucked.

PS I played Hampshire League level so don’t know what that entitles me to in terms of understanding the game. Tactics largely bore me and I scored fucking loads when I was playing

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45 minutes ago, OttawaSaint said:

There was a young chap named TWar,

Who used statistics to tell us the score,

But the forward was Long,

And he played like a mong

And Saints ended up losing 1-4

Twar was his name, 

The lad who’s never played the game, 

Claims Broja is poor,

and Armstrong Shouldn’t score,

We don’t want to hear his nonsense no more. 

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19 minutes ago, Highfield Saint said:

WTF is this thread all about? 

A few posters ganging up on TWar because they dont agree with him and dont seem to like him? Really?

Making up limericks about him? Really?

They should be ashamed of themselves and the mods should lock and delete the thread

Agree, I can't believe what has gone on in here, not fair game and tantamount to bullying.

It's one thing disagreeing with what someone says, but this is too much. I don't agree with everything that they have said, but at least they offer an opinion on why they feel the way they do.

I hope you keep posting Twar, it's been good reading your thoughts...

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30 minutes ago, Highfield Saint said:

WTF is this thread all about? 

A few posters ganging up on TWar because they dont agree with him and dont seem to like him? Really?

Making up limericks about him? Really?

They should be ashamed of themselves and the mods should lock and delete the thread

Read the whole thread mate, he was giving it large for ages.

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11 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Read the whole thread mate, he was giving it large for ages.

So you feel you have to step in for a bit of one-upmanship? I know you're desperate to discredit him but in doing so you're just making yourself look petty and juvenile. I look forward to your inevitable come-back.

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This feels like a bit of an unnecessary thread. 

The chance being discussed is a low XG, because of the direction AA approaches the ball from (not angled towards goal) and the wide angle he is at the goal from (https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/)

Of course, as a premier league striker he will be disappointed to have not scored, as we all were that he didn't. That doesn't mean though, that he didn't play well (pressed very effectively) or that any other strikers we have would have scored it. Broja hits a lot of shots from similar positions into the side netting.

As for the more recent contents of this thread, surprised it has lasted this long before a moderator realises it is essentially bullying an individual.

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21 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

So you feel you have to step in for a bit of one-upmanship? I know you're desperate to discredit him but in doing so you're just making yourself look petty and juvenile. I look forward to your inevitable come-back.

One-upmanship, where? He gives it large a lot, made a number of personal digs at me thorughout this thread, if people cant take it dont dish it out. 

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To be honest I don't mind the limerics, even though they are mostly not great. I didn't mind responding to these guys in general when it was just chatting about football even if it did get a bit heated occassionally. Unfortunately one guy took it too far in my eyes by implying that me having a different footballing opinion to him means I have a "disorder", which I found thoroughly disrespectful and to be honest really sapped my enthusiasm for continuing to engage in these conversations.

I will keep posting because I do like it on here, but honestly shit like that really does make me think twice about bothering to log in. Sometimes you got to remember you are talking to people on here and there is a point where you have to have a think about your actions and whether "well he had a different opinion on a football player to me and refused to back down and agree with me" is really a decent excuse to act like a bellend.

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I haven’t read enough posts to know where TWar is at but what I have read mostly sounds reasonable. 
 

I like to think I can never be boxed in on any opinion as change with the wind mostly on what I think of Saints 

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20 hours ago, OttawaSaint said:

There was a young chap named TWar,

Who used statistics to tell us the score,

But the forward was Long,

And he played like a mong

And Saints ended up losing 1-4

And lovely use of Mong. Don’t want to start that debate again but thought you were better than that

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