Saints 2-0 Everton - Match Thread

[Matthew Le God]

43 minutes ago, TWar said:

Thought KWP looked good in front of Tino. Maybe Elyounoussi and KWP as 10s, Stu had a poor game yesterday imo and Tino is one of our best and brightest players.

Armstrong missing a couple of chances doesn't = a bad game

He did a huge amount of good work both offensively and defensively. Missing a chance or two doesn't outweigh that.

[Sheaf Saint]

Just now, Matthew Le God said:

Armstrong missing a couple of chances doesn't = a bad game

He did a huge amount of good work both offensively and defensively. Missing a chance or two doesn't outweigh that.

Agreed. He was highlighted by the MOTD pundits along with Ely as a key part of our good overall performance. It's not like the chances he had were sitters.

I would definitely keep him in against Everton as LB is a weak point for them. It will either be the new and unproven Mykolenko, who was missing yesterday with Covid, or Coleman playing out of position. Either way, it's a weakness we should be looking to exploit.

[manji]

18 hours ago, Teddeer said:

We need a fast start and to put them under pressure because they showed against Newcastle they'll crumble. I think they are ok when things are going their way but not equipped to withstand the onslaught I'm hoping we send their way from the first minute.

I get that I am still traumatised by the Norwich defeat. We aren’t that team anymore. Absolutely no reason why we should beat Everton.

[nta786]

1 hour ago, TWar said:

Thought KWP looked good in front of Tino. Maybe Elyounoussi and KWP as 10s, Stu had a poor game yesterday imo and Tino is one of our best and brightest players.

Stephens in for Bednarek whether he is injured or not and aside from that unchanged.

Harsh on Stu, I thought he was excellent, there was a lot of off the ball running which made space for others to recycle the ball too, worked tirelessly considering the shift he put in against Spurs. If we had to be critical, his shooting boots weren't quite on yesterday but he gets into my first XI every day of the week. 

[TWar]

3 hours ago, Toadhall Saint said:

Interesting- why do you feel SA had a poor game? I thought he had a great game despite the misses. Sounds like you would like to see him dropped?

I thought he made the wrong decision and took uncharacteristically weak shots a few times when attacks looked promising and also he didn't cover for his fullback as much as usual. He gave the ball away a few times too.

[Toadhall Saint]

Just now, TWar said:

I thought he made the wrong decision and took uncharacteristically weak shots a few times when attacks looked promising and also he didn't cover for his fullback as much as usual. He gave the ball away a few times too.

Drop SA at your peril - you as a stat man should know that 😉

[TWar]

Just now, Toadhall Saint said:

Drop SA at your peril - you as a stat man should know that 😉

He does have an uncanny way of leading to wins. Maybe we can sub him on in the second half to counteract the curse.

[waylander]

51 minutes ago, TWar said:

He does have an uncanny way of leading to wins. Maybe we can sub him on in the second half to counteract the curse.

Give him an extra hour of shooting practice. The rest of his performance yesterday was excellent. 

[TWar]

5 minutes ago, waylander said:

Give him an extra hour of shooting practice. The rest of his performance yesterday was excellent. 

The shooting wasn't what bothered me, per say, it was the decision to shoot. He almost always had a better option on. Also I don't think he covered defensively as well as usual.

[Dman]

1 minute ago, TWar said:

The shooting wasn't what bothered me, per say, it was the decision to shoot. He almost always had a better option on. Also I don't think he covered defensively as well as usual.

So because of a couple of rash decisions to shoot, you’d drop him for a RB?….

Why anyone would even consider dropping Armstrong (one of our most important players in this system) is beyond belief, let alone for a RB ffs. 

[TWar]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

So because of a couple of rash decisions to shoot, you’d drop him for a RB?….

Why anyone would even consider dropping Armstrong (one of our most important players in this system) is beyond belief, let alone for a RB ffs. 

KWP was class in that role. I'm happy to see him have another go.

[LuckyNumber7]

It would be utter madness to drop Stu, he is one of our most important players. Sure he didn't have his shooting boots on yesterday but otherwise had another very good game. Tino is a great option to have off the bench but doesn't really warrant a starting spot atm, especially when it means pushing KWP out of position.

If everyone is fit then the only change I'd make is Stephens in for Bednarek, and get him winding up Richarlison.

[kyle04]

I think the (Lampards) Everton game will reveal more as to where the team are at the moment. We've shut Citeh out, no easy feat, beaten a poor Spurs side and equalled a disjointed ManU team, all 3 results deserved. It seems to me we're looking to go forward at the first opportunity, rather than the sideways back 4 - back to keeper passing. Aside form Citeh, we're creating a lot of chances, a little more composure and speed of thought should see us scoring lots of goals. Everton will probably press high as they did v Leeds, our passing and movement needs to be good to counteract this. Agree with Stephens in, he's a class WUM and will unsettle Richarlison, who can be a dangerous player. Confidence will be high, we need to win this to keep the momentum going (obviously). Please no tinkering Ralph, same 11 if all fit (10 + Stephens).

[alehouseboys]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

So because of a couple of rash decisions to shoot, you’d drop him for a RB?….

Why anyone would even consider dropping Armstrong (one of our most important players in this system) is beyond belief, let alone for a RB ffs. 

Sometimes they just don’t come off, sometimes they do

 

[Chewy]

2 hours ago, TWar said:

The shooting wasn't what bothered me, per say, it was the decision to shoot. He almost always had a better option on. Also I don't think he covered defensively as well as usual.

Not sure what’s more idiotic - suggesting dropping Stu for Tino or writing “per say”.

[TWar]

55 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Not sure what’s more idiotic - suggesting dropping Stu for Tino or writing “per say”.

Can't always spell perfectly

[trousers]

24 minutes ago, TWar said:

Can't always spell perfectly

Why not? It spells as it sounds:

P.e.r.f.e.c.t.l.y

A pretty easy one if you ask me. 

 

[John B]

3 hours ago, TWar said:

The shooting wasn't what bothered me, per say, it was the decision to shoot. He almost always had a better option on. Also I don't think he covered defensively as well as usual.

Perhaps he thought he would score most players do when they shoot at goal

[TWar]

3 minutes ago, John B said:

Perhaps he thought he would score most players do when they shoot at goal

I'm sure he did, that doesn't make it the right thing to do when someone else is better placed.

[John B]

52 minutes ago, TWar said:

I'm sure he did, that doesn't make it the right thing to do when someone else is better placed.

So what would you have said if he had scored

 

So what would you have said if he passed and the goal was missed

 

Bye the way I think most players would have shot if they thought they could score especially one that had scored a screamer the week before and was high in confidence

 

Thats just football

[TWar]

1 minute ago, John B said:

So what would you have said if he had scored

 

So what would you have said if he passed and the goal was missed

 

Bye the way I think most players would have shot if they thought they could score especially one that had scored a screamer the week before and was high in confidence

 

Thats just football

I'd have been happy if he'd scored, obviously. That doesn't mean shooting was the right choice. I'd be happy if Romeu scored a 40 yard screamer, that doesn't mean I would want him to take on 40 yard belters rather than passing as it is less likely to lead to a goal.

Armstrong kept having a go when there were better options. I know he is confident, but hitting it on sight when there are better options is wasteful.

[danjosaint]

It's the final ball/decision making that needs improving, but in split seconds it's extremely difficult to get the correct call,  Armstrong should've passed the ball along but then so should Broja , But it's good to see that the players have the confidence and are willing to accept the ball instead of hiding from it 

[The Left Back]

If everyone's fit then we should definitely go with the same side next week.  We are in a flow.

Can't agree with the view that Armstrong needs dropping.  He was excellent the last two games.  Him and Moi have been been the catalyst for our more attacking play.  Stu brings so much fluidity and dynamism to us when he plays.  I've looked at his shots again.  There's only one I think he shouldn't have taken.  He was unlucky with a couple and two he should have done better.  I noticed how many of our team are now shooting from distance more often.

And I also noticed that Broja was too greedy a couple of times in each of the last two games.  He could have laid easy chances on a plate for team mates but chose the harder, selfish option.  If he can develop that his assists will match his goals and we'll do even better.

[coalman]

Nice to have KWP as an option in attacking midfield. He rarely gives it away and takes up great positions. But, Armstrong is our best attacking midfielder by some distance.

All season I've been begging our players to have a pop at goal so, while we've erred towards too selfish, I'd rather that than the alternative.

[Toussaint]

14 hours ago, TWar said:

I'd have been happy if he'd scored, obviously. That doesn't mean shooting was the right choice. I'd be happy if Romeu scored a 40 yard screamer, that doesn't mean I would want him to take on 40 yard belters rather than passing as it is less likely to lead to a goal.

Armstrong kept having a go when there were better options. I know he is confident, but hitting it on sight when there are better options is wasteful.

It's also really exciting when it comes off

[trousers]

15 hours ago, TWar said:

I'm sure he did, that doesn't make it the right thing to do when someone else is better placed.

How many players were "better placed" when Armstrong scored against Coventry?

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, trousers said:

How many players were "better placed" when Armstrong scored against Coventry?

are you suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

[trousers]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

are you suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

Are you suggesting that I'm suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

[TWar]

10 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

are you suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

That's the issue with the argument. Anecdotally, Vincent Kompany scored a 40 yard belter against Leicester to win the premier league. Does that mean we should do away with midfielders and strikers and just instruct our CBs to smash it from 40 yards every attack? No.

If a player has a better option on and they blaze it over the bar from range that is a bad thing, it's a waste. If a player continually does it that's an issue. Saying "oh, but what if it had gone in". Well if it had gone in I would have been happy, if he had passed and it had lead to a move which resulted in a goal I'd have been happy. The latter is more likely, hence the criticism.

[trousers]

2 minutes ago, TWar said:

That's the issue with the argument. Anecdotally, Vincent Kompany scored a 40 yard belter against Leicester to win the premier league. Does that mean we should do away with midfielders and strikers and just instruct our CBs to smash it from 40 yards every attack? No.

If a player has a better option on and they blaze it over the bar from range that is a bad thing, it's a waste. If a player continually does it that's an issue. Saying "oh, but what if it had gone in". Well if it had gone in I would have been happy, if he had passed and it had lead to a move which resulted in a goal I'd have been happy. The latter is more likely, hence the criticism.

How many times out of (say) 10 would you say it's reasonable for a player to have a pop at goal from 35 yards versus passing to a team mate who is "better placed"? 2? 4? None?

p.s. bearing in mind one of those "better placed" players could be Nathan Redmond.... #banter #onlykidding

[Toadhall Saint]

9 minutes ago, TWar said:

That's the issue with the argument. Anecdotally, Vincent Kompany scored a 40 yard belter against Leicester to win the premier league. Does that mean we should do away with midfielders and strikers and just instruct our CBs to smash it from 40 yards every attack? No.

If a player has a better option on and they blaze it over the bar from range that is a bad thing, it's a waste. If a player continually does it that's an issue. Saying "oh, but what if it had gone in". Well if it had gone in I would have been happy, if he had passed and it had lead to a move which resulted in a goal I'd have been happy. The latter is more likely, hence the criticism.

So you will reserve judgment on the action until the shot is taken? It goes in - super, fantastic! It doesn’t - should have passed it. Talk about having your cake and eating it

[Dman]

29 minutes ago, TWar said:

That's the issue with the argument. Anecdotally, Vincent Kompany scored a 40 yard belter against Leicester to win the premier league. Does that mean we should do away with midfielders and strikers and just instruct our CBs to smash it from 40 yards every attack? No.

If a player has a better option on and they blaze it over the bar from range that is a bad thing, it's a waste. If a player continually does it that's an issue. Saying "oh, but what if it had gone in". Well if it had gone in I would have been happy, if he had passed and it had lead to a move which resulted in a goal I'd have been happy. The latter is more likely, hence the criticism.

What was Armstrong’s XG Saturday? Surely that will be an indication of if it was a good opportunity or not. 

As a side note, I still don’t get that though, as what is expected from someone, such as CR would be much higher than Armstrong, even if in the same position. 

I’m still not sure why anyone, other than someone trying to be Uber smart ‘oh look at me’ type, would want to play a RB ahead of a key player in the ‘10’. 

[maysie]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

What was Armstrong’s XG Saturday? Surely that will be an indication of if it was a good opportunity or not. 

As a side note, I still don’t get that though, as what is expected from someone, such as CR would be much higher than Armstrong, even if in the same position. 

I’m still not sure why anyone, other than someone trying to be Uber smart ‘oh look at me’ type, would want to play a RB ahead of a key player in the ‘10’. 

It's so he can make sure his 'insane' signing gets in the team.

[Hamilton Saint]

1 hour ago, trousers said:

Are you suggesting that I'm suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

I am suggesting that you are suggesting that he is suggesting that you are suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards. But it's only a suggestion.

[tajjuk]

Stu Armstrong was one of our best performers against Utd, his finishing was wayward yes but have to remember he is still working his way back to sharpness, but he is one of our best attacking mids and replacing him with one of our right backs seems an odd decision to me. Tino and KWP are right backs, they can probably both do decently at  left back as well and might do a job in midfield but no idea why we would replace our best attacking mid with a right back. 

[nta786]

41 minutes ago, Hamilton Saint said:

I am suggesting that you are suggesting that he is suggesting that you are suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards. But it's only a suggestion.

Is John McGinn suspended for this one?

[TWar]

1 hour ago, trousers said:

How many times out of (say) 10 would you say it's reasonable for a player to have a pop at goal from 35 yards versus passing to a team mate who is "better placed"? 2? 4? None?

p.s. bearing in mind one of those "better placed" players could be Nathan Redmond.... #banter #onlykidding

Dunno, I remember two or three times on the weekend. Didn't keep much of a count but it certainly felt like a good number of promising attacks ended with him blazing it high, wide, or both. 

1 hour ago, Dman said:

What was Armstrong’s XG Saturday? Surely that will be an indication of if it was a good opportunity or not. 

As a side note, I still don’t get that though, as what is expected from someone, such as CR would be much higher than Armstrong, even if in the same position. 

I’m still not sure why anyone, other than someone trying to be Uber smart ‘oh look at me’ type, would want to play a RB ahead of a key player in the ‘10’. 

Armstrong had an xG of 0.24 with 4 shots. Meaning he had about 0.06 xG per shot, which isn't exactly awful but does represent that each shot had about a 1/20 chance of going in. This is somewhat brought up by one shot that had an xG of 0.09 which was definitely worth taking. He had two others at 0.03 and 0.04 which probably weren't. This doesn't measure whether other better options were on, but having watched it I think they often were.

I wanted to play him because I thought he looked good there vs united. This "look at me" thing is entirely projection.

1 hour ago, Toadhall Saint said:

So you will reserve judgment on the action until the shot is taken? It goes in - super, fantastic! It doesn’t - should have passed it. Talk about having your cake and eating it

No, I think shooting from range when better options are on is always a bad idea, it is less likely to lead to success. The fact it sometimes works doesn't change that.

[trousers]

2 minutes ago, TWar said:

Dunno, I remember two or three times on the weekend. Didn't keep much of a count but it certainly felt like a good number of promising attacks ended with him blazing it high, wide, or both. 

I wasn't talking about the weekend game specifically, just in general / philosophically. 

[TWar]

3 minutes ago, trousers said:

I wasn't talking about the weekend game specifically, just in general / philosophically. 

Not sure how to answer in general/philophically to be honest

Edited 14 February, 2022 by TWar

[nta786]

3 minutes ago, TWar said:

Not sure how to answer in general/philophically to be honest

Are you advocating then a player never takes a shot from 25 to 35 yards?

If we take the statistics out of it then yes I'm sure a pass is always on, but then we'd never see some of the great moments that do come out of nowhere.

Sometimes it is more satisfying when you do score out of nothing, or in your terms when you beat the "xG" for any given opportunity.

Should JWP float the ball into the box or pass it to someone far right when he gets a set piece? Or is that different to a long shot?

Football would be a very robotic sport if every player made the right decisions at the right time, it'd be like 2 supercomputers playing chess against each other

[Dman]

11 minutes ago, TWar said:

 

Armstrong had an xG of 0.24 with 4 shots. Meaning he had about 0.06 xG per shot, which isn't exactly awful but does represent that each shot had about a 1/20 chance of going in. This is somewhat brought up by one shot that had an xG of 0.09 which was definitely worth taking. He had two others at 0.03 and 0.04 which probably weren't. This doesn't measure whether other better options were on, but having watched it I think they often were.

I wanted to play him because I thought he looked good there vs united. This "look at me" thing is entirely projection.

 

See this is where stats need to be relative which this sort of stuff doesn’t factor in. 1/20 chance is the average of all opportunities in that area, I’m guessing? 

If someone like CR had an opportunity in the same area as Armstrong did, in reality, that 1/20 chance is probably more like 1/10, where as someone like Redmond is probably 1/30? I’d consider Armstrong a pretty decent finisher and usually strikes the ball pretty well, so I’d back him to shoot from these chances 9/10 (if you don’t shoot you don’t score, as they say). 

Still, his all round he had a pretty decent game Saturday and is one player, with Romeu and Salisu (all key players in each area of the field), I don’t think we can leave out at all, especially not for a RB, it’s a laughable shout to be honest. 

[TWar]

31 minutes ago, nta786 said:

Are you advocating then a player never takes a shot from 25 to 35 yards?

If we take the statistics out of it then yes I'm sure a pass is always on, but then we'd never see some of the great moments that do come out of nowhere.

Sometimes it is more satisfying when you do score out of nothing, or in your terms when you beat the "xG" for any given opportunity.

Should JWP float the ball into the box or pass it to someone far right when he gets a set piece? Or is that different to a long shot?

Football would be a very robotic sport if every player made the right decisions at the right time, it'd be like 2 supercomputers playing chess against each other

If there is nothing else on then why not, but basically yeah. Here is a good article on it: https://the18.com/en/soccer-entertainment/long-shot-decline-modern-football

Regarding free kicks, yeah it's different calculus. The issue with an FK is that the other team has time to prepare for them, get behind the ball, and mark up. Add to that a deadball is easier to strike, you have 10 yards space, and you have all the time to pick your spot. In the modern game there is no way the chances of scoring vs passing from a 25 yard fk havent been calculated and inform their decisions.

30 minutes ago, Dman said:

See this is where stats need to be relative which this sort of stuff doesn’t factor in. 1/20 chance is the average of all opportunities in that area, I’m guessing? 

If someone like CR had an opportunity in the same area as Armstrong did, in reality, that 1/20 chance is probably more like 1/10, where as someone like Redmond is probably 1/30? I’d consider Armstrong a pretty decent finisher and usually strikes the ball pretty well, so I’d back him to shoot from these chances 9/10 (if you don’t shoot you don’t score, as they say). 

Still, his all round he had a pretty decent game Saturday and is one player, with Romeu and Salisu (all key players in each area of the field), I don’t think we can leave out at all, especially not for a RB, it’s a laughable shout to be honest. 

 If CR had such quality as to regularly accumulate double his xG he'd be the best finisher in the world by a good margin. Actually he is underperforming xG by about 25% (one of the biggest in the league for players who regularly shoot, he is having an awful season statistically) so absolutely not, he'd have a 1/26 chance.

I think you are wildly overrating xG vs G variation amongst players. The biggest overperformer among players is Vardy and he is still only doing so by ~30%. Among top players, they basically perform on or very close to xG. Some players routinely overperform xG (Messi, Son, Ings) but normally not more than by about ~25%. This is why you will often here football experts say that finishing ability is mostly less important than getting in good spots.

Edited 14 February, 2022 by TWar

[Turkish]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

What was Armstrong’s XG Saturday? Surely that will be an indication of if it was a good opportunity or not. 

As a side note, I still don’t get that though, as what is expected from someone, such as CR would be much higher than Armstrong, even if in the same position. 

I’m still not sure why anyone, other than someone trying to be Uber smart ‘oh look at me’ type, would want to play a RB ahead of a key player in the ‘10’. 

BECAUSE HE KNOWS MORE THAN US

[VectisSaint]

1 hour ago, tajjuk said:

Stu Armstrong was one of our best performers against Utd, his finishing was wayward yes but have to remember he is still working his way back to sharpness, but he is one of our best attacking mids and replacing him with one of our right backs seems an odd decision to me. Tino and KWP are right backs, they can probably both do decently at  left back as well and might do a job in midfield but no idea why we would replace our best attacking mid with a right back. 

Almost every chance on Saturday somehow involved Armstrong, he set up several chances for others, and got into scoring positions 4 times, once with the almost impossible scissors kick which made de Gea work. Even Adams goal (just about the only chance that Armstrong wasn't involved in) would (probably) have been slotted in by Stu if it had come back off the post (instead of rebounding in). The one where he blazed it over the bar, only Adams was in a better position and even that was not clear cut. Adams and Broja fucked up several opportunities where there were players in a better position but no one is saying they should be dropped because they failed to finish. The argument made for Stu to be dropped is one of the silliest suggestions ever read on here (and there have been many), he is by far our most creative player, everyone misses opportunities, evident that our recent good run of form coincides with Stu returning to the side and being back up to something like full fitness. No one else would have got into those positions to miss (I think he missed 2 Saturday, the blaze over the bar and the one where he dragged it right of de Gea's far post). First name on the team sheet for me (maybe equal to Romeu/JWP).

[trousers]

2 hours ago, TWar said:

If a player has a better option on and they blaze it over the bar from range that is a bad thing, it's a waste. If a player continually does it that's an issue. 

 

38 minutes ago, nta786 said:

Are you advocating then a player never takes a shot from 25 to 35 yards?

 

15 minutes ago, TWar said:

If there is nothing else on then why not, but basically yeah.

First of all you say that a player shouldn't shoot from range (if another player is better placed) "continually", thus implying that 'sometimes' it's OK, and then you say that they should "never" do it. Which is it? Make up yer mind me ol' mucker....

Edited 14 February, 2022 by trousers

[Fabrice Fernandes no.1 fan]

In an attempt to get this back on track...

I would stick with the same team as started on Saturday but swap in Stephens for Bednarek.

Stuart Armstrong has to start for me, he and Moi really look like the best fit for the roles they're being asked to play at the moment, tucking in more and playing as 10's rather than wide midfielders, allowing the full backs to overlap.

[TWar]

8 minutes ago, trousers said:

 

 

First of all you say that a player shouldn't shoot from range (if another player is better placed) "continually", thus implying that 'sometimes' it's OK, and then you say that they should "never" do it. Make up yer mind me ol' mucker....

When I say "basically yeah" I mean as a basic rule shooting from 25+ yards is a bad idea, there may be mitigating circumstances (see Che vs City when the keeper was out of position) but it is mostly a pretty poor idea. The occassional drive or two from 25 yards when there is nothing else on to keep the keeper on his toes isn't the worse thing although will very very rarely lead to anything, but shooting from 25+ yards regularly is statistically very inefficient.

This isn't to say it never works, it does, you will see a load of goals go in from that range. That is what happens if you do an unlikely thing a lot of times - it will come off occassionally, that doesn't make it an efficient way to play though.

[SaintTex]

interesting little note:

20-21 | 24 matches - 29 points

21-22 | 24 matches - 29 points

feels like a completely different season (so far)

 

[TWar]

Just now, SaintTex said:

interesting little note:

20-21 | 24 matches - 29 points

21-22 | 24 matches - 29 points

feels like a completely different season (so far)

 

This season feels more sustainable. Last season we had a good 11, this year we have a good squad.

[Verbal]

3 hours ago, trousers said:

Are you suggesting that I'm suggesting that we should continue to shoot more often from 35 yards?

I knew this would end in tears