Russia

[Jimmy_D]

17 minutes ago, egg said:

What's happened already is incredible, but their actions won't last long if aerial power is used against them. That it hasn't been already is interesting. 

An air force needs a lot of people to be functional beyond the pilots, as well as extremely robust logistics support. Are there enough people loyal enough to Putin to keep an air force running and willing to target Russians? Are they still being supplied with fuel and ammo?

Not to mention that having already downed Russian helicopters and a plane, Wagner have demonstrated they have some AA assets.

[Lighthouse]

3 minutes ago, egg said:

I don't follow, and I'm not sure you follow my point. 

You said that it’s interesting Russian air power hasn’t been used against them. I don’t think it is, Russian air power has already proven to be largely ineffective in this conflict so far, their 1970s aircraft and diminishing stock of guided bombs aren’t the formidable force that some like to pretend they are. Wagner have already brought down a small number of helicopters which attacked the convoy and an Il-22 reportedly as well.

[Jimmy_D]

12 minutes ago, SotonianWill said:

The guardian said a few hours ago that Ukraine are currently liberating land Russia has held since 2014, but I can’t see this anywhere else. Does anyone know if this is true?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3727224-ukrainian-forces-take-control-of-several-positions-near-krasnohorivka-which-russia-held-since-2014.html

[badgerx16]

10 minutes ago, SotonianWill said:

The guardian said a few hours ago that Ukraine are currently liberating land Russia has held since 2014, but I can’t see this anywhere else. Does anyone know if this is true?

Yesterday they reported the liberation of some villages in Donetsk that had been held by the separatists since the internal conflict 'froze'.

[Lighthouse]

Your arse would be twitching if you were on one of them.

[buctootim]

Just now, Lighthouse said:

Your arse would be twitching if you were on one of them.

I flew back from India yesterday.Pilot flew too uncomfortably close to Crimea for my liking. 

[Weston Super Saint]

42 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Who knew that a three day march on the Capital and the seat of power was actually feasible for Russian forces.

It's almost like they've been defeated in a single weekend.....

[Jimmy_D]

6 Russian helicopters visually confirmed downed by Wagner now, including a KA-52

Several unconfirmed reports that Russian troops are being pulled back from Ukraine to fight against Wagner.

[whelk]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

6 Russian helicopters visually confirmed downed by Wagner now, including a KA-52

Several unconfirmed reports that Russian troops are being pulled back from Ukraine to fight against Wagner.

Putin’s ‘off ramp’?

[Jimmy_D]

Just now, whelk said:

Putin’s ‘off ramp’?

Looks more like being knocked off a viaduct just at the moment.

[Dragon_man]

4 hours ago, OldNick said:

A column of vehicles will be wiped out quickly by the air force.

It is odd, surely a few MIGs and chopers would wipe it all out ... a turkey shoot, especially on Russian soil.

[Jimmy_D]

Claims by Lukashenko that Belarus has negotiated a ceasefire, and an apparent voice message from Prigozhin that they’re turning back from Moscow.

[badgerx16]

Reports that Wagner have backed off.

 

 

[badgerx16]

Just now, Jimmy_D said:

Claims by Lukashenko that Belarus has negotiated a ceasefire, and an apparent voice message from Prigozhin that they’re turning back from Moscow.

I wouldn't trust Luka to tell me the sun was shining.

[whelk]

Strange fucking day

[Lighthouse]

Surely Putin won’t just let him go back to work as normal, like nothing happened.

[Jimmy_D]

Assuming the audio clip is genuine, it’ll be interesting what Prigozhin was offered or threatened with to get him to turn around.

Also how long Prigozhin survives after this.

[badgerx16]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Assuming the audio clip is genuine, it’ll be interesting what Prigozhin was offered or threatened with to get him to turn around.

Also how long Prigozhin survives after this.

Shoigu's resgination and Prigozhin to replace him ?

 

Might not be good news for Ukraine.

[Jimmy_D]

Reports that some Wagner troops are really not happy that Prigozhin backed off.

We’re one internal mutiny in Wagner from a reenactment of The Rock.

[Lighthouse]

Clearly he didn’t drum up the support he expected from certain factions and felt that he couldn’t win. I’m not sure I really believe all charges against him were dropped. Dropped from a window in Minsk, perhaps.

[Jimmy_D]

Difficult to see how Putin can possibly just let Prigozhin go into exile after leading an invasion of Russia that got within 200km of Moscow, destroyed at least 6 helicopters, a plane, reportedly all of the pilots for those, and a fuel dump. Doing so undermines a lot of authority that Putin had.

Similarly with any Wagner troops that backed Prigozhin, letting them go scot-free again makes Putin look incredibly weak.

Then you have the breaking of trust by any troops that stood aside for Wagner, or even supported them.

Then, a lesser issue, but there will be trust issues with Wagner troops that didn’t go against Putin, but nonetheless refused orders to take that course of action.

Then there’s the breaking of trust by Prigozhin in backing down and leaving troops following him high and dry, and troops loyal to Prigozhin are currently armed and pissed off.

All in all, Wagner are unlikely to be anywhere near as effective a fighting force going forward, and the Russian army itself will have taken a hit too.

On top of that, anti-Putin sentiment among the public was given the biggest platform its had in years, especially considering the lack of reprisals for a full on insurrection attempt. There are reports that Wagner troops were greeted with food and water by the public, while police returning tonight have been greeted with protests.

In the meantime, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been progressing, and made several advances today, including into territory that had been held by Russia since 2014. I wouldn’t mind betting that Ukrainian psy-ops will be able to create havok with the divisions opened up by today’s events too.

[revolution saint]

25 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Difficult to see how Putin can possibly just let Prigozhin go into exile after leading an invasion of Russia that got within 200km of Moscow, destroyed at least 6 helicopters, a plane, reportedly all of the pilots for those, and a fuel dump. Doing so undermines a lot of authority that Putin had.

Similarly with any Wagner troops that backed Prigozhin, letting them go scot-free again makes Putin look incredibly weak.

Then you have the breaking of trust by any troops that stood aside for Wagner, or even supported them.

Then, a lesser issue, but there will be trust issues with Wagner troops that didn’t go against Putin, but nonetheless refused orders to take that course of action.

Then there’s the breaking of trust by Prigozhin in backing down and leaving troops following him high and dry, and troops loyal to Prigozhin are currently armed and pissed off.

All in all, Wagner are unlikely to be anywhere near as effective a fighting force going forward, and the Russian army itself will have taken a hit too.

On top of that, anti-Putin sentiment among the public was given the biggest platform its had in years, especially considering the lack of reprisals for a full on insurrection attempt. There are reports that Wagner troops were greeted with food and water by the public, while police returning tonight have been greeted with protests.

In the meantime, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been progressing, and made several advances today, including into territory that had been held by Russia since 2014. I wouldn’t mind betting that Ukrainian psy-ops will be able to create havok with the divisions opened up by today’s events too.

The other thing, and this is just me speculating, is that those troops that followed Prigozhin are sick of the war and sick of dying.  They don't want to go back.  I'd imagine a fair percentage of those regular and Wagner who stayed in Ukraine felt the same and today would have given them a bit of hope that maybe things might change.  Probably me projecting but morale can't be good right now and it wouldn't take much to break a fractured army in a war they can't win, in a country that doesn't want them.

[benjii]

I guess Putin has offered him billions of dollars and a "guarantee" of safety.

Worth remembering that none of these people are principled actors for functioning institutions. Wagner is a bunch of mercenaries, Prigozin has always been a violent thief and Putin runs a mafia, not a country.

Desperate Vlad has just tried to buy his way out. 

Of course, the big question is what do Wagner do next, particularly if Prigozin has thrown them under the bus for a sackful of cash. Likewise, the Russian army - apparently Wagner shot down various aircraft, killing Russian soldiers and Putin's response to that is to flee to St Petersburg and pay off Prigozin. Hardly inspiring and deserving of loyalty.

Edited 25 June, 2023 by benjii

[Lighthouse]

So who’s your favourite, far right insurrection leader? The Shaman gets it for me, Prigozhin just didn’t put the effort into his outfits.

[Weston Super Saint]

11 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

So who’s your favourite, far right insurrection leader? The Shaman gets it for me, Prigozhin just didn’t put the effort into his outfits.

To be fair, the Yoda impression isn't bad considering what he's got to work with.

[Whitey Grandad]

58 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

So who’s your favourite, far right insurrection leader? The Shaman gets it for me, Prigozhin just didn’t put the effort into his outfits.

But at least he’s perfected his snarl.

[AlexLaw76]

[badgerx16]

9 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

And you are a specialist in nicking Internet memes.

[whelk]

1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

So who’s your favourite, far right insurrection leader? The Shaman gets it for me, Prigozhin just didn’t put the effort into his outfits.

I am guessing Prigozhin supports Chelsea

[whelk]

20 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

To be fair Jimmy D seems pretty informed

[revolution saint]

6 minutes ago, whelk said:

To be fair Jimmy D seems pretty informed

He does, and there's a few others who seem to know what they're talking about.  Personally I have no experience in this so I find it really useful and interesting.  I feel we're missing a golden opportunity for Alexei to inform us about catering logistics in a military setting so would be good if he can fill that void.

[AlexLaw76]

3 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

He does, and there's a few others who seem to know what they're talking about.  Personally I have no experience in this so I find it really useful and interesting.  I feel we're missing a golden opportunity for Alexei to inform us about catering logistics in a military setting so would be good if he can fill that void.

Brilliant. 

[Tamesaint]

38 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

I always thought that Weston had more hair than that. 😁

[Lighthouse]

I think most eight year olds could have told you that sticking a Sega Megadrive controller in an old hot water cylinder, with an expressed desire of driving it to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, 500 miles out to sea, is a bad idea.

I think most twelve year olds could tell you that a militia of alcoholic rapists, released from prison and lead by a belligerent Uruk Hai, leading an armed revolt against the government of Russian, was going to get somewhat messy.

That fact that someone of Alexei’s cranial output considers either of these points to be ‘expertise’ doesn’t particularly surprise me.

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, Lighthouse said:

I think most eight year olds could have told you that sticking a Sega Megadrive controller in an old hot water cylinder, with an expressed desire of driving it to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, 500 miles out to sea, is a bad idea.

I think most twelve year olds could tell you that a militia of alcoholic rapists, released from prison and lead by a belligerent Uruk Hai, leading an armed revolt against the government of Russian, was going to get somewhat messy.

That fact that someone of Alexei’s cranial output considers either of these points to be ‘expertise’ doesn’t particularly surprise me.

Another brilliant contribution from a forum Mod.

 

[buctootim]

20 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Another brilliant contribution from a forum Mod.

 

Seemed pretty factually accurate and balanced to me

[badgerx16]

30 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Another brilliant contribution from a forum Mod.

 

A mod that lets you stay active.

[AlexLaw76]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

A mod that lets you stay active.

And you also. 

[whelk]

I think mods should keep track of posters’ predictions and publish this information so we can factor in a trust value

 

 

[badgerx16]

16 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

And you also. 

That just shows what a good job he is doing.

[sadoldgit]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Loving the irony and total lack of self-awareness Batman. Keep ‘em coming.

Edited 25 June, 2023 by sadoldgit
Add text

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, Tamesaint said:

I always thought that Weston had more hair than that. 😁

Brilliant.

[cloggy saint]

So what happens now? Do the Wagner orcs return to Ukraine without their dear leader or will they be left to roam the land? Perhaps they'll return to their respective prisons?

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, cloggy saint said:

So what happens now? Do the Wagner orcs return to Ukraine without their dear leader or will they be left to roam the land? Perhaps they'll return to their respective prisons?

According to Russian reports those who did not take part yesterday will be offered contracts in the regular army. Priggy will go into a supposed exile in Belarus, but without any of his troops - but will almost certainly look to hire a tea taster to join him in his bungalow pdq. Probably most of those involved yesterday will be sent to Syria or Mali to continue their missionary work under Wagner's military leadership, ( of which Prigozhin was not a part ).

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

According to Russian reports those who did not take part yesterday will be offered contracts in the regular army. Priggy will go into a supposed exile in Belarus, but without any of his troops - but will almost certainly look to hire a tea taster to join him in his bungalow pdq. Probably most of those involved yesterday will be sent to Syria or Mali to continue their missionary work under Wagner's military leadership, ( of which Prigozhin was not a part ).

all very odd.

a private army, paid for by Russia, supplied with Russians and given Russian weaponry. No wonder it lasted hours and the leader will probably never be seen again.

[badgerx16]

Just now, AlexLaw76 said:

all very odd.

a private army, paid for by Russia, supplied with Russians and given Russian weaponry. No wonder it lasted hours and the leader will probably never be seen again.

If anybody knows about neo-nazis in Ukraine it is Dmitry Utkin, Wagner's primary field commander, a violent ultra-nationalist who has swastika and SS tattoos, and was born in Ukraine.

[skintsaint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

If anybody knows about neo-nazis in Ukraine it is Dmitry Utkin, Wagner's primary field commander, a violent ultra-nationalist who has swastika and SS tattoos, and was born in Ukraine.

Don't rate his grinder profile pic too much.

[cloggy saint]

Looks like a nice chap.

[Weston Super Saint]

35 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Don't rate his grinder profile pic too much.

To be honest, I thought Lamesaint had more hair.

[Tamesaint]

3 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

To be honest, I thought Lamesaint had more hair.

Triggered. 🤗🤗🤗